基于组合熵值马尔科夫模型的住宅用地价格预测研究
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摘要
住宅用地地价是城市房地产价格发展的基础。本文通过建立灰色GM(1,1)模型和无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型,并利用熵值法建立组合预测模型的方法,对杭州市住宅用地地价进行组合预测。同时选用马尔科夫链模型对熵值法组合模型预测结果进行修正处理,以进一步提高预测结果的可信度。实例表明,熵值法组合预测模型与单一预测模型相比,实用性更强,预测精度也得到有效提高。
The price of residential land is the foundation of urban real estate price development. This paper establishes the grey GM(1,1) model and the unbiased grey GM(1,1) model, and establishes combination forecasting model by using the entropy method to forecast the residential land prices of Hangzhou. We show that the combination forecasting model of entropy value method is more practical than the single prediction model, and the prediction accuracy improves. With the Markov chain model, the prediction results of entropy value method combination model are modified, and improve the reliability of the prediction results.
The price of residential land is the foundation of urban real estate price development. This paper establishes the grey GM(1,1) model and the unbiased grey GM(1,1) model, and establishes combination forecasting model by using the entropy method to forecast the residential land prices of Hangzhou. We show that the combination forecasting model of entropy value method is more practical than the single prediction model, and the prediction accuracy improves. With the Markov chain model, the prediction results of entropy value method combination model are modified, and improve the reliability of the prediction results.
引文
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[20]孙秀娟,陆新秀.基于熵权法的交通流组合预测模型研究[J].山东科技大学学报,2018,37(4):111-117.SUN X J,LU X X.Research on combination prediction model of traffic flow based on entropy weight method[J].Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology,2018,37(4):111-117.
[21]任敏,胡彧.熵权法和云模型下的物联网鲁棒性评估方法[J].自动化仪表,2015,36(5):60-63.REN M,HU Y.Evaluation method based on entropy weight and cloud model for robustness of lOT[J].Process Automation Instrumentation,2015,36(5):60-63.
[22]陈勤.基于马尔科夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的火灾损失预测[J].工业安全与环保,2015,41(1):70-72.CHEN Q.Fire loss prediction based on Markov grey residual error GM(1,1)model[J].Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection,2015,41(1):70-72.
[2]黄小虎.对我国房地产业的再思考[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(4):12-19,25.HUANG X H.Rethinking for real estate industry in China[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2011,32(4):12-19,25.
[3]黄小虎.利用集体建设用地建设租赁住房[J].上海国土资源,2018,39(1):1-4.HUANG X H.Using collective construction land to build leasehold housing[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2018,39(1):1-4.
[4]李灿灿,苑韶峰,冯新伟.郑州市地价与房价的相关性分析[J].上海国土资源,2015,36(2):51-54.LI C C,YUAN S F,FENG X W.The relationship between land and housing prices in Zhengzhou[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2015,36(2):51-54.
[5]俞红燕,俞紫韵,陈杨燕,等.房地产开发企业土地过度储备博弈论分析[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(2):57-60,66.YU H Y,YU Z Y,CHEN Y Y,et al.Analysis on the game theory of real estate development enterprises over land reserves[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2011,32(2):57-60,66.
[6]张晓铭,李秀霞.基于ArcGIS的住宅基准地价时空演变及驱动力分析[J].上海国土资源,2017,38(3):36-40,45.ZHANG X M,LI X X.Spatio-temporal evolution and driving forces of residential land price based on ArcGIS[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2017,38(3):36-40,45.
[7]韩曼曼.基于多元线性回归模型的区域房地产投资环境评价[J].上海国土资源,2015,36(3):44-48.HAN M M.The evaluation of regional real estate investment based on a multiple linear regression model[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2015,36(3):44-48.
[8]杨岳,张永珍.构建上海市地价管理体系的设想[J].上海地质,2009,30(3):24-27,31.YANG Y,ZHANG Y Z.Tentative plan on the establishment of land price administration system in Shanghai[J].Shanghai Geology,2009,30(3):24-27,31.
[9]彭立勋,杨岳,刘馨.上海地价动态更新体系建立研究[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(1):45-49,53.PENG L X,YANG Y,LIU X.Study on dynamic update system for land price in Shanghai[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2011,32(1):45-49,53.
[10]曹玲燕.大都市基准地价土地用途细化分类研究[J].上海国土资源,2013,34(2):37-40.CAO L Y.Land use classification of benchmark land prices in urban areas[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2013,34(2):37-40
[11]张玮.上海市国有建设用地价格体系信息发布机制研究[J].上海国土资源,2017,38(2):70-72.ZHANG W.Researching the state-owned construction land value system and its diffusion in Shanghai[J].Shanghai Land&Resources,2017,38(2):70-72.
[12]张文宇,孟旋,苏锦旗.改进熵值法和马尔科夫链的组合预测及应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2016,52(6):122-126.ZHANG W Y,MENG X,SU J Q.Combination of improved entropy method and Markov chain prediction and application[J].Computer Engineering and Applications,2016,52(6):122-126.
[13]侯月,廖基定.基于马尔科夫过程修正的湖南洪涝灾变灰预测研究[J].南华大学学报,2017,31(4):95-100.HOU Y,LIAO J D.Grey prediction of flood disaster in Hunan based on Markov chain correction[J].Journal of University of South China,2017,31(4):95-100.
[14]陈玉金,刘建永,李凌,等.基于神经网络回归分析组合模型的能源消耗预测研究[J].兵工自动化,2008,27(11):59-60.CHEN Y J,LIU J Y,LI L,et al.Forecast and research on energy consumption based on analytical and combined model of BPneural network and regression[J].Ordnance Industry Automation,2008,27(11):59-60.
[15]芮海田,吴群琪,袁华智.基于指数平滑法和马尔科夫模型的公路客运量预测方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2013,13(4):87-93.RUI H T,WU Q Q,YUAN H Z.Prediction method of highway passenger transportation volume based on exponential smoothing method and Markov model[J].Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2013,13(4):87-93.
[16]崔丹.基于遗传算法的咸阳机场流量组合预测方法研究[J].空中交通管理,2011(9):11-12.CUI D.Studies on prediction methods of traffic flow combination based on genetic algorism at Xianyang airport[J].Air Traffic Management,2011(9):11-12.
[17]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002.DENG J L.Grey theory foundation[M].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press,2002.
[18]吉培荣,黄巍松,胡翔勇.无偏灰色预测模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2000,22(6):6-8.JI P R,HUANG W S,HU X Y.An unbiased grey forecasting model[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2000,22(6):6-8.
[19]赵青海.基于熵值法的组合预测模型及其在高峰负荷预测中的应用[J].大学数学,2011,27(3):157-160.ZHAO Q H.The combination forecasting model based on the entropy approach and application in power peak load forecasting[J].College Mathematics,2011,27(3):157-160.
[20]孙秀娟,陆新秀.基于熵权法的交通流组合预测模型研究[J].山东科技大学学报,2018,37(4):111-117.SUN X J,LU X X.Research on combination prediction model of traffic flow based on entropy weight method[J].Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology,2018,37(4):111-117.
[21]任敏,胡彧.熵权法和云模型下的物联网鲁棒性评估方法[J].自动化仪表,2015,36(5):60-63.REN M,HU Y.Evaluation method based on entropy weight and cloud model for robustness of lOT[J].Process Automation Instrumentation,2015,36(5):60-63.
[22]陈勤.基于马尔科夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的火灾损失预测[J].工业安全与环保,2015,41(1):70-72.CHEN Q.Fire loss prediction based on Markov grey residual error GM(1,1)model[J].Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection,2015,41(1):70-72.