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DEA与多元分析在商业银行机构网点优化设置决策中的应用研究
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摘要
在我国商业银行优化资源配置、提高核心竞争力的进程中,机构网点的优化设置与调整是关系商业银行发展的重大问题。商业银行机构网点的优化设置决策涉及的问题是多方位的,其中原有机构网点的优化调整涉及的决策问题可以概括为现状评价、成因诊断以及调整决策制定这几方面。从优化机构网点设置的战略重要性看,在这方面提供科学有效的决策支持方法是具有重要现实意义的。
     从国内商业银行的运营特点与运营现状出发,并侧重于从盈利性评价与诊断以及盈利性潜力估计的角度为现有机构网点的优化设置提供决策依据,本文构建了结合使用DEA与多元分析、服务于机构网点优化设置的一套决策支持方法。这套方法包含盈利性评价与诊断、规模收益分析以及调整决策制定这几个模块,结合基于现有运营规模的盈利性差异诊断以及规模收益分析的结果为商业银行机构网点优化调整的决策提供支持。整套方法的思路、各模块的分析方法、整合决策的方法以及案例中的应用在文中依次展开。
     首先提出了从效率及业务经营技术水平这两方面的机构网点自身可控的内部因素、机构网点的主管行控制的规模因素以及外部环境因素这几方面对商业银行机构网点进行盈利性差异的诊断、盈利性潜力的估计并在此基础上进行机构网点优化设置决策的总体思路。
     接着构建了DEA分析与Tobit回归分析相结合的,基于截面数据定量区分在现有运营规模上效率、外部环境以及业务经营技术水平三方面因素对商业银行机构网点盈利性的影响程度的分析方法;此后构建了DEA与Tobit回归相结合的基于面板数据进行商业银行机构网点盈利性评价及诊断分析的方法;随后是对机构网点进行基于DEA的规模收益分析的方法。在此基础上提出与机构网点的盈利性预期和规模收益状况的不同组合相对应的机构网点优化调整决策,另外还提出了用区间型DEA模型进行机构网点调整方案效果估计的思路。
     最后基于国内某银行下属的36家分理处三年的数据进行了包含上述各重要环节的实证案例分析,通过这个综合性的案例分析展示本文构建的整套分析方法的应用过程。案例分析的结果显示了这套方法的决策支持意义。
In the resources allocation optimization progress conducted by Chinesecommercial banks aimed at improving their core competences, there is an importantissue about the optimization of bank branches' setting and adjustment. As far as thisissue is concerned, the related problem in the optimization setting of existing bankbranches can be categorized as status quo evaluation, diagnosis and adjustmentdecision-making. It's of prominent practical significance to study on the decisionsupport methods for such problems.
     Based on the operational characteristics and operating status quo of Chinesecommercial banks, and focus on decision support for existing branches' settingoptimization from the viewpoint of profitability evaluation and diagnosis and theestimation of potential profitability, a systematic decision support approach based onDEA and multivariate analysis is developed in this study. This approach containsseveral modules including profitability evaluation and diagnosis, return-to-scaleanalyzing and adjustment decision-making. Profitability diagnosis based on thepresent scales of branches and scale efficiency analysis is combined to make decisionon commercial bank branches optimization setting. The holistic analyzing idea,analyzing methods in different modules, the systematic decision-making approach andapplication in a case study are presented gradually in this dissertation.
     Firstly the holistic analyzing idea is introduced. The idea is to diagnosis, viz. tofind the main sources of a bank branch's poor profitability by analyzing the maindriving factors of it. Thus the potential profitability of it may be estimated, andadvices on adjustment may be made. The main driving factors of bank branches'profitability can be classified into several kinds, viz. factors that can be control bybranches themselves such as efficiency and operation technology, scale factor whichare controlled by their supervising bank, and the external environment factors. Thusthe diagnosing of profitability and potential profitability estimating are based on theanalyzing of the influences of these factors on bank branches profitabilityrespectively.
     And then, to clear each factor's effect on profitability, a framework ofcross-sectional analyzing based on DEA and Tobit regression is built. After that, amethod also based on DEA and Tobit regression is presented for branch profitability evaluation and diagnosis based on panel data analyzing. And an approach based onDEA is presented to evaluate the scale efficiency of bank branch. Subsequently, thetactics correspond to different combinations of branch profitability expectations andscale efficiencies are presented respectively. Besides, an idea of using the DEA modelbased on interval input-output data to estimate the possible effects of differentadjusting solutions is presented.
     Finally, a comprehensive empirical study including aforementioned parts ofanalyzing is conducted based on 3 years' data from 36 branches of some Chinesecommercial bank to show the application process of the holistic approach. And theresults show the decision support significance of the approach built in this study.
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