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产权制度安排对农户森林经营决策的影响研究
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摘要
集体林地是国家重要的土地资源,是林业重要的生产要素,是农民重要的生活保障。集体林业的发展对于促进山区农民增收、维护国家生态安全和木材安全具有十分重要的意义。改革开放以来,我国集体林权制度虽然经历了多次改革,但仍存在产权不明晰、经营主体不落实、产权残缺等问题。2O03年开始的全面性集体林权制度改革,将以家庭承包经营为主的经营制度在林业中不断拓展,全面落实了林地承包经营权和林木所有权,使农户成为森林经营的主体。在新的制度背景下,农户森林经营决策问题成为学者和政府决策者研究和关注的热点。
     近年来,土地产权和市场化改革作为促进农户森林可持续经营的手段被广泛讨论。由于过去我国森林经营的主体主要是林业企业和村集体组织,对森林资源管理的研究主要侧重林业调查规划以及从政策角度进行的林地管理、采伐管理、公益林管理、林业重点工程管理等,很少考虑农户森林经营决策。另外,国内学者们虽然针对集体林权制度研究作了诸多努力,但是这类研究主要集中于林业产权制度理论、集体林权制度中存在的问题、改革的方向和对策措施,很少涉及集体林权制度等社会、经济和政策因素如何影响农户森林经营决策及其作用机制,针对集体林权制度演变过程进行的系统研究更少见。
     本研究的主要目的是,建立一个统一的分析框架,在此基础上考察诱导集体林权制度安排的因素以及影响农户造林决策和木材采伐决策的相关因素,探讨集体林权制度安排对农户森林经营决策的作用机制,为进一步完善集体林权制度改革,促进农户参与森林经营活动提供一些决策参考。为了达到研究目的,我们在森林资源丰富、农户对林业依赖程度较高、集体林权制度变迁较为明显的辽宁东部山区选择了3个县15个村118个农户的236块林地进行了实地调查。本文的主要结论如下:
     (1)从集体林权制度演变来看,20世纪80年代以后,农村集体林产权向非集体化演变,尤其是2003年以后,非集体经营林地面积比例大幅增加。总的来看,非集体化的形式以承包经营为主。本文利用面板数据模型估计了辽东地区集体林权制度安排的影响因素,结果发现集体林地非集体化主要受到国家生态公益林政策和采伐限额政策、劳动力非农就业、农民收入水平、人均耕地面积和林地立地条件等。以生态保护为目标的生态公益林保护政策和采伐限额政策,不利于林业的非集体化经营;劳动力非农就业越高、劳动力资源越丰富、受教育程度越高以及农民收入越高,越有可能促进集体林地的非集体化经营;人均耕地面积和林地立地质量显著影响集体林权制度安排。
     (2)通过对农户是否造林和造林投入多少采用Heckman模型回归,结果发现:农民在自留山上更愿意造林;林地使用权越稳定,对促进农户参与造林越显著;林木处分权越完善,越有利于农户参与造林,应适当放松采伐限额政策;减轻林业税费负担,有利于促进农户造林和增加造林投入;农户所在地区林业社会化服务开展得越好,越有利于农户获得更多的林业生产技术和信息,抓住林业生产的机会。
     (3)通过对农户是否采伐进行Probit回归分析以及对农户木材采伐量进行Tobit回归分析,结果发现自留山、使用权稳定性、木材价格、林龄、林地立地质量等是影响农户木材采伐决策的主要因素。农户更愿意在自留山上采伐林木;使用权越不稳定,农户木材采伐越多;木材价格越高,林地立地质量越好,林龄越大,农户木材采伐量越多。之后,利用Probit模型估计了农户木材采伐意愿的影响因素,发现影响因素与木材决策的相似,但是木材价格与农户木材采伐意愿负相关,在木材价格持续走高的形势下,农户持观望态度;林地地块面积越大,农户采伐意愿越高;林地立地质量越差,农户越想采伐,可能是想进行低产林改造;其他变量结论与木材采伐决策结论相同。
     最后,根据研究结论,本文提出了如下五个方面的政策建议以促进农户从事森林经营:第一,稳定林业政策;第二,完善采伐限额管理制度;第三,减轻林业税费负担;第四,加强林业社会化服务体系建设;第五,加快木材市场化改革。
Collective forestlands are the important land resources, forest production factors and living guarantee of households. The development of collective forestry have significant effect on increasing farmers' income, maintaining ecology security and keeping timber supply stable. Since reform and opening-up of our country, collective forest tenure institution still have the problems of ambiguitiy and trunctation of Forest tenure after many reforms. In the all-round reform of collective forest tenure institution beginning in 2003, individual household management is the main tenure type. Meanwhile, forestland contractual operation right was made sure and household became the main body of forest management. Under a new institutional background, household's forest management decision has become research and concerned focus.
     In recent years, land tenure and market reform has extensively discussed. They are the measures which protmote forest sustainable management. In past, as the forestry enterprises and village collective economic organizations were the main bodies of forest management. And the forest resources management put emphasis on the forestland management, harvest management, ecological reserve management and key forestry programs etc, while household forest management decision tend to be neglected. Otherwise, there are some researches and fruits about theory, problems, reform direction and policy suggestions of Forest tenure institution, but there are still no researches about how society, economy and policy factors effect on household's forest management decision and its effect mechanism.
     The objective is building an integrate analysis frame and exploring the factors that affect on collective forest tenure institutional arrangements, household's afforest decision and household's timber harvest decision and impact mechanism of forest tenure institution. Finally, according to the research conclusions, it will bring up some policy suggestions in order to perfect the reform of collective forest tenure institution and promote household to participate in forest management. The data used in the article are from 2 counties, 15 villages, 118 households and 236 forest plots in the regions which have abundant forest, high forest dependency and rapid evolution of forest tenure institution. The main conclusions are as follows:
     First, after the 1980s, collective forest tenure institution evolved to non-clollectivization. Particularly after 2003, the non-collective management forestland area proportion increased largely. Generally speaking, non-collectivization forms by household undertaking primarily. This article uses panel data model to estimate the factors of collective forest tenure institution evolution in Liaoning. The results indicate that logging quota policy, labor non-agriculture employment, farmers' income level, the average cultivated land area, and forestland condition are the main factors. Logging quota policy hampers the development of non-collectivization management. The many labor non-agriculture employment, high farmers' income level and high education level will promote the development of non-collectivization management.
     Second, it uses heckman model to estimate the factors of household's afforest decision. The results indicate that private plot, good tenure security, complete forest tenure, low forestry tax, good forest service will promote household's afforestation.
     Third, it uses probit model to estimate the factors of household whether to harvest and uses tobit model to estimate the household's harvest volumes. The results indicate that private plot, tenure security, timber price, forest ages, forest condition are the main factors. The farmers are willing to harvest the forest in the private plot. Meanwhile, good tenure security, high timber price, good forestland condition, big forest ages will promote the farmers to increase the harvest volumes. Afterward, it uses probit model to estimate the factors of household's harvest willingness. The results indicate that the main infuenciong factors are the same as the results of household's harvest decision model. But the timber price is higher, farmers' harvest willingness is higher as famers hold the waiting attitude. Farmers want to harvest in the large forest plot and bad quality forestland. Other varibles results are sames as the above.
     In the end, the article puts forward some policy suggestions from three aspects to promote farmers to promote household to engage in forest management on the basis of above analysis. These suggestions are as follows: first, keep forest policy stable; second, perfect logging quota policy; third, release the burden of forestry tax; fourth, strengthen the construction of forest socialized service system; fifth, accelerate the timber market reform.
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