贸易的环境影响：新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型研究
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摘要
本文在进行文献综述的基础之上,将贸易与环境问题的研究按照时间顺序划分为三大阶段,即环境本位阶段、贸易本位阶段以及新环境本位阶段,并发现在贸易本位阶段时期形成的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)虽然已成为自由贸易主义者鼓动国际贸易自由化的重要理论依据,但也在进入到新环境本位阶段时期遭到了激烈的抨击与反对,还在指导实践的过程中常被一些国家误读为“先污染、后治理”的不可持续的发展观念,从而造成严重的甚至不可挽回的环境危害。因此,该理论得到了不断的修正,有学者也提出了新型环境库兹涅茨曲线理论(Revised EKC),即在传统环境库兹涅茨曲线基础上如何使贸易引起的收入增长与环境危害的倒U型关系更加“扁平化”,从而将贸易引起的环境危害总量降到最低。
本文认为新型环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的提出避免了人们对传统环境库兹涅茨曲线的误读,但与传统EKC一样过于笼统,缺乏结构性和操作性,难以对实际中认识和处理贸易与环境问题提供有效的指导作用,并在该理论的基础上扩展出烫平原则、提前原则和急转原则这三大原则以及原则矩阵、环境类型矩阵和环境政策矩阵为支撑的新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型。
其中,三原则的提出对于新型环境库兹涅茨曲线如何“扁平化”作了解构分析—由于三原则从实施强度和所需时间上都各不相同,因此“扁平化”对于不同的环境问题也就有了不同的概念,而同时通过环境危害程度和治理成本的高低将环境问题划分为四种类型,这就产生了二元四次的新型EKC的模型框架。在该模型框架中建立的原则矩阵、环境类型矩阵和环境政策矩阵使得不同的原则或原则组合与不同的环境问题相匹配,不同的环境政策或环境政策组合与不同的环境问题相匹配。本文也借用了环境经济学中的最优污染水平理论对新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型的科学性进行了理论验证,并利用该模型实证分析了十几种污染问题。总之,本文在模型框架下创建的三个矩阵使得原本相对平面化的模型框架得到了多维度的扩展,可以用来具体的分析某种环境问题与贸易之间的关系,这使得环境库兹涅茨曲线理论具有了重要的现实指导意义。而该现实意义不仅适用于发达国家,也适用于发展中国家。各国可以根据自身的情况在该模型的框架中对不同的环境问题进行比较分析,找到较为适合的原则指导和政策措施,并根据环境类型的不同,有重点、有顺序的进行环境治理,从而调和各种环境问题与贸易间的关系。
对于我国来说,本文提出的新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型也具有较高的实用价值。它有助于人们脱离对倒U型曲线是否存在的反复但低价值的验证,而更多的关注对不同的环境问题进行定位,以找寻适合的环境政策,从而有效的协调各种环境问题与贸易发展、经济发展之间的关系。而在环境政策方面,本文认为仅仅依靠命令控制和经济政策是行不通的,毕竟它们强调的是微观层面的政策与措施,缺乏宏观导向。因此,长效机制政策,即着重宏观方面把握的环境政策的制定与完善异常重要,这类政策相对来说提供了实现贸易与环境和谐发展的社会根基。而且从新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型之环境政策矩阵来看,长效机制政策是用来解决最多类型环境问题的环境政策,具有广泛的适用性,强调建立健全长效机制政策十分关键。本文在探讨我国环保长效机制政策的完善时,从如何调整增长源从物力资本到人力资本为主的方向转移为切入点,认为我国必须兼顾生产与消费两个领域的政策建设为主,其中,产业结构调整和消费结构的调整是建设生产与消费两个领域中环境制度的核心问题。
As the economic globalization and international environmental problems become more apparent during the recent decades, the two very different issues– trade and environment becomes more related than ever, and the research efforts put upon their relationship and conflicts are growing very fast. Needless to say, the trade liberalization did indeed speed up the process of technological advances and innovations, but its mysterious impact on the environment, both local and global, attracts lots of attention. Especially the fundamental questions as whether it’s good or bad for the environment are raised and subsequently addressed by the researchers from the field of environmental economics.
Of all the relevant theories and models, the environmental kuznets curve (EKC) theory formed in the early 1990 century is undoubtedly one of the most important. It reveals the invert“U”relationship between trade-induced income growth and environmental status. On one hand, it has become one of the most obvious evidences for us to further promote trade liberalization; on the other hand, it has solicited ever-growing suspicion and criticism after its birth. In practice, it has misled some of the countries, especially developing ones, to adopt the“first pullets, and then combats”doctrine, which undermines the sustainability of these countries. This problem has been dwelt with by researchers who subsequently revised EKC and provide constructive suggestions and advices on how to“flatten”the expected EKC in order to bring the trade-induced environmental damages to the lowest level. However, the revised EKC theory is as general and impractical as the original one, it lacks the necessary systematic structure and comprehensiveness to overcome the obstacles presented in the old theory.
However, the three principles, including smooth principle, advance principle and flashback principle, proposed by this thesis, try to resolve the problem by decomposition of the current revised EKC. As the three principles vary in the perspective of intensity and timing, they provide concrete solutions to different environmental problems, which are categorized into four kinds within a 2X2 matrix model by their comparative environmental severity and expecting combating costs. In this model, different principles, different environmental problems and different pollution policies are adjusted accordingly, so that each unique set of policies guided by a corresponding principle are aimed at tackling a certain category of environmental problems. By doing so, the original static EKC are extended to be enabled to tackle various kinds of environmental problems dynamically. The traditional EKC theory can also be applied to developing countries without comprising their sustainability. Different countries can apply this model based on their unique situation by using a specific set of policies guided by a corresponding principle to tackle their problems after they have thoroughly analyzed, classified and prioritized their environmental challenges. In this way, the seemingly conflicting relation between trade and environment should be addressed in a better way and even resolved to some extent.
To China, this model can be even more valuable since China’s economy is growing very fast during the past over twenty years, whereas its natural resources are becoming scarcer and its environment is becoming more fragile. It is vital to ensure its sustainable development by first abandoning the false and inefficient development model. It all requires a breakthrough in thinking paradigm, which the traditional EKC theory can barely do any help. It should be noticed that the well-researched command-and-control policies and economic instruments are not sufficient anymore. The institutionalized approaches guided by smooth principle should be considered at the top of the research agenda if we should want to transform our development model and ensure a long-term sustainable development and consolidate a harmonious relationship between trade and environment. In this thesis, starting from analyzing the source of growth, the institutionalized approaches are emphasized on transforming the production and consumption pattern to a sustainable level.
本文认为新型环境库兹涅茨曲线理论的提出避免了人们对传统环境库兹涅茨曲线的误读,但与传统EKC一样过于笼统,缺乏结构性和操作性,难以对实际中认识和处理贸易与环境问题提供有效的指导作用,并在该理论的基础上扩展出烫平原则、提前原则和急转原则这三大原则以及原则矩阵、环境类型矩阵和环境政策矩阵为支撑的新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型。
其中,三原则的提出对于新型环境库兹涅茨曲线如何“扁平化”作了解构分析—由于三原则从实施强度和所需时间上都各不相同,因此“扁平化”对于不同的环境问题也就有了不同的概念,而同时通过环境危害程度和治理成本的高低将环境问题划分为四种类型,这就产生了二元四次的新型EKC的模型框架。在该模型框架中建立的原则矩阵、环境类型矩阵和环境政策矩阵使得不同的原则或原则组合与不同的环境问题相匹配,不同的环境政策或环境政策组合与不同的环境问题相匹配。本文也借用了环境经济学中的最优污染水平理论对新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型的科学性进行了理论验证,并利用该模型实证分析了十几种污染问题。总之,本文在模型框架下创建的三个矩阵使得原本相对平面化的模型框架得到了多维度的扩展,可以用来具体的分析某种环境问题与贸易之间的关系,这使得环境库兹涅茨曲线理论具有了重要的现实指导意义。而该现实意义不仅适用于发达国家,也适用于发展中国家。各国可以根据自身的情况在该模型的框架中对不同的环境问题进行比较分析,找到较为适合的原则指导和政策措施,并根据环境类型的不同,有重点、有顺序的进行环境治理,从而调和各种环境问题与贸易间的关系。
对于我国来说,本文提出的新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型也具有较高的实用价值。它有助于人们脱离对倒U型曲线是否存在的反复但低价值的验证,而更多的关注对不同的环境问题进行定位,以找寻适合的环境政策,从而有效的协调各种环境问题与贸易发展、经济发展之间的关系。而在环境政策方面,本文认为仅仅依靠命令控制和经济政策是行不通的,毕竟它们强调的是微观层面的政策与措施,缺乏宏观导向。因此,长效机制政策,即着重宏观方面把握的环境政策的制定与完善异常重要,这类政策相对来说提供了实现贸易与环境和谐发展的社会根基。而且从新型环境库兹涅茨曲线模型之环境政策矩阵来看,长效机制政策是用来解决最多类型环境问题的环境政策,具有广泛的适用性,强调建立健全长效机制政策十分关键。本文在探讨我国环保长效机制政策的完善时,从如何调整增长源从物力资本到人力资本为主的方向转移为切入点,认为我国必须兼顾生产与消费两个领域的政策建设为主,其中,产业结构调整和消费结构的调整是建设生产与消费两个领域中环境制度的核心问题。
As the economic globalization and international environmental problems become more apparent during the recent decades, the two very different issues– trade and environment becomes more related than ever, and the research efforts put upon their relationship and conflicts are growing very fast. Needless to say, the trade liberalization did indeed speed up the process of technological advances and innovations, but its mysterious impact on the environment, both local and global, attracts lots of attention. Especially the fundamental questions as whether it’s good or bad for the environment are raised and subsequently addressed by the researchers from the field of environmental economics.
Of all the relevant theories and models, the environmental kuznets curve (EKC) theory formed in the early 1990 century is undoubtedly one of the most important. It reveals the invert“U”relationship between trade-induced income growth and environmental status. On one hand, it has become one of the most obvious evidences for us to further promote trade liberalization; on the other hand, it has solicited ever-growing suspicion and criticism after its birth. In practice, it has misled some of the countries, especially developing ones, to adopt the“first pullets, and then combats”doctrine, which undermines the sustainability of these countries. This problem has been dwelt with by researchers who subsequently revised EKC and provide constructive suggestions and advices on how to“flatten”the expected EKC in order to bring the trade-induced environmental damages to the lowest level. However, the revised EKC theory is as general and impractical as the original one, it lacks the necessary systematic structure and comprehensiveness to overcome the obstacles presented in the old theory.
However, the three principles, including smooth principle, advance principle and flashback principle, proposed by this thesis, try to resolve the problem by decomposition of the current revised EKC. As the three principles vary in the perspective of intensity and timing, they provide concrete solutions to different environmental problems, which are categorized into four kinds within a 2X2 matrix model by their comparative environmental severity and expecting combating costs. In this model, different principles, different environmental problems and different pollution policies are adjusted accordingly, so that each unique set of policies guided by a corresponding principle are aimed at tackling a certain category of environmental problems. By doing so, the original static EKC are extended to be enabled to tackle various kinds of environmental problems dynamically. The traditional EKC theory can also be applied to developing countries without comprising their sustainability. Different countries can apply this model based on their unique situation by using a specific set of policies guided by a corresponding principle to tackle their problems after they have thoroughly analyzed, classified and prioritized their environmental challenges. In this way, the seemingly conflicting relation between trade and environment should be addressed in a better way and even resolved to some extent.
To China, this model can be even more valuable since China’s economy is growing very fast during the past over twenty years, whereas its natural resources are becoming scarcer and its environment is becoming more fragile. It is vital to ensure its sustainable development by first abandoning the false and inefficient development model. It all requires a breakthrough in thinking paradigm, which the traditional EKC theory can barely do any help. It should be noticed that the well-researched command-and-control policies and economic instruments are not sufficient anymore. The institutionalized approaches guided by smooth principle should be considered at the top of the research agenda if we should want to transform our development model and ensure a long-term sustainable development and consolidate a harmonious relationship between trade and environment. In this thesis, starting from analyzing the source of growth, the institutionalized approaches are emphasized on transforming the production and consumption pattern to a sustainable level.
引文
1引自:阿尔·戈尔.《寂静的春天》前言,李瑞兰译,吉林:吉林人民出版社,1997
8引自:联合国.二十一世纪议程.第四章,第4.5条.联合国新闻部信息技术科, 2002.4.18. http://www.un.org/chinese/events/wssd/chap4.htm
9数据搜集整理自人民网经济频道:http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/index.html
10引自:中科院可持续发展研究组.中国可持续发展战略报告----建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会.北京: 科学出版社, 2006. p174
11引自:艾伦·杜宁.多少算够-消费社会与地球的未来.长春:吉林人民出版社, 1997. p102
12引自:新华网.冯培恩:加大节约型政府的建设力度刻不容缓. 2007全国两会特别专题. 2007.03.12. http://news.xinhuanet.com/video/2007-03/12/content_5835506.htm
13引自:C. Frankel. The Case for Modern Man. New York: Harper. 1955. p203.
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8引自:联合国.二十一世纪议程.第四章,第4.5条.联合国新闻部信息技术科, 2002.4.18. http://www.un.org/chinese/events/wssd/chap4.htm
9数据搜集整理自人民网经济频道:http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/index.html
10引自:中科院可持续发展研究组.中国可持续发展战略报告----建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会.北京: 科学出版社, 2006. p174
11引自:艾伦·杜宁.多少算够-消费社会与地球的未来.长春:吉林人民出版社, 1997. p102
12引自:新华网.冯培恩:加大节约型政府的建设力度刻不容缓. 2007全国两会特别专题. 2007.03.12. http://news.xinhuanet.com/video/2007-03/12/content_5835506.htm
13引自:C. Frankel. The Case for Modern Man. New York: Harper. 1955. p203.
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