全球经济失衡：特征、机制及可持续性
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摘要
本文从比较优势与全球生产支出格局差异、全球投资储蓄不平衡、亚洲国家货币错配恐慌与美元路径依赖、以及金融优势差异下的跨国资本流动等四个视角,分析了全球经济失衡的原因及其可持续性问题。(一)从比较优势与全球产出支出格局差异看,经济发展长期因素如人口、资源和技术水平决定的比较优势差异,导致生产性资本从发达国家向发展中国家流动。发展中国家形成了生产大于支出的格局,发达国家形成了支出大于生产的格局。这种生产和支出的不平衡格局在发展中国家和发达国家之间的长期存在,构成全球经济失衡的深厚的实体经济基础。(二)从全球投资储蓄不平衡角度看,发展中国家的高储蓄水平是与人口结构相关的。发展中国家的高储蓄率不是发达国家高支出的直接原因,发达国家的高支出水平有本国宽松信贷政策和赤字财政等原因。(三)从亚洲国家货币错配恐慌与美元路径依赖角度看,亚洲国家需要一定规模的美元储备,以避免本国外向型经济出现巨大波动和货币危机。采取有管理的浮动汇率制度对于发展中国家消除经济不稳定性具有积极意义。(四)从金融优势差异下的跨国资本流动角度看,美国与其他国家间的金融优势差异推动了跨国资本流动,并通过汇率等渠道影响全球经济失衡。
基于以上分析,本文总结出导致全球经济失衡的三个层面原因。第一,实体经济层面上,比较优势差异决定了全球生产和支出格局差异。第二,以美元为主导的国际货币体系加剧了全球经济失衡,并使之在一定范围内和相当长时期中得以累积和持续。第三,其他制度性因素,包括贸易保护主义、汇率政策、美国国内赤字财政、低利率与宽松信贷政策等,也构成加剧和维持全球经济失衡的因素。
论文分析了在全球经济再平衡过程中发展中国家需要注意的问题。第一,当本国的剩余劳动力尚未被工业部门完全吸收时,应该继续发展劳动密集型产业。第二,发展中国家汇率制度的调整,需要视比较优势的变化情况而定。当本国在全球分工体系中的比较优势趋于消失的过程时,汇率应该以稳定为主,剧烈调整是有害的。第三,当经济发展到一定阶段时,发展中国家应尽早取消对来自发达国家的资本输入优惠,减少发达国家资本对发展中国家的长期比较利益的分享。发展中国家要积极输出资本,通过输出资本长期分享全球经济快速成长地区的比较利益,减少贸易摩擦,提高本国外汇资产价值。
本文共分七章。第一章,导论。介绍选题背景、意义及研究文献回顾。第二章,全球经济失衡的现象与特征。第三章、第四章、第五章和第六章是全文核心部分,分别从四个视角对全球经济失衡形成机制进行系统分析。第七章对全球经济失衡的因素做另一角度的归类,基于此,进一步探讨了全球经济失衡的可持续性问题与再平衡对策。
This paper analyzes the formation mechanism and sustainability of the global imbalances from four perspectives, including comparative advantage and disparity of aggregate production and spending in different countries, the imbalances between investment and savings, currency mismatch and dollar-dependence in Asia countries, transnational capital flows for financial advantage gap.
Firstly, from the perspective of disparity of production and spending, because of the comparative advantage differences resulted from long-term factors such as population, resources as well as science and technology, the production is greater than spending in developing countries, while spending is greater than production in developed countries. The imbalance will exist for a long term and constitute the profound basis of global imbalance from real economy.
Secondly, from the perspective of investment and savings imbalance, high savings rate in developing countries correlate with the population structure. The high saving rate of developing countries is not the direct reason of the high expenditure of developed countries and loose credit policy and fiscal deficit of developed countries contribute to the high spending.
Thirdly, from the perspective of currency mismatch and dollar-dependence in Asia countries, Asian countries need a certain scale of U.S. dollars reserve to keep economic stability and to avoid currency crisis in export-oriented economy. Adopting managed floating exchange rate system is positive for developing countries to eliminate economic instability.
Fourthly, from the perspective of transnational capital flows under financial advantage disparity of developing countries and developed countries, the financial advantage disparity push the transnational capital flow and affect global imbalances by the channel of exchange rate.
From the above-mentioned analysis, this paper posts elements of global imbalances from three levels. Firstly, based on the real economy, the disparity of comparative advantage leads to the disparity of global production and spending. Secondly, the international currency system centering with the US dollar accelerates the global imbalances and facilitates its accumulation and sustainability in certain extent. Thirdly, other systematic factors also lead to certain distortions of global imbalances, including trade protectionism, exchange rate policy, finance deficit of US government, low long term interest rate and loose credit policy, etc.
This paper argues the significant issues of developing countries in the course of global rebalance. Firstly, a country should develop labor-intensive industry when the native residual labor has not been absorbed totally by industry sector. Secondly, the foreign exchange policy should be adjusted according to the change of comparative advantages. When the comparative advantage of the countries comes to disappearing in global dividend system, stabilization of exchange rate should be emphasized and sharp adjustment is harmful. Thirdly, developing countries should cancel the preferential policies for developed countries’capital inflow in due course and export capital actively to share global comparative advantages interest, reduce trade frictions and increase the foreign exchange asset value.
This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction and introduces the background, significance and literature review of the paper. The second chapter introduces the phenomena and characteristic of global imbalance. The third, the fourth, the fifth and the sixth chapter are the core parts of paper and they argue systematically the formation mechanism separately from four perspectives. The seventh chapter classifies the factor of global imbalances from another angle and discusses further the sustainability and countermeasures of rebalance of global imbalances.
基于以上分析,本文总结出导致全球经济失衡的三个层面原因。第一,实体经济层面上,比较优势差异决定了全球生产和支出格局差异。第二,以美元为主导的国际货币体系加剧了全球经济失衡,并使之在一定范围内和相当长时期中得以累积和持续。第三,其他制度性因素,包括贸易保护主义、汇率政策、美国国内赤字财政、低利率与宽松信贷政策等,也构成加剧和维持全球经济失衡的因素。
论文分析了在全球经济再平衡过程中发展中国家需要注意的问题。第一,当本国的剩余劳动力尚未被工业部门完全吸收时,应该继续发展劳动密集型产业。第二,发展中国家汇率制度的调整,需要视比较优势的变化情况而定。当本国在全球分工体系中的比较优势趋于消失的过程时,汇率应该以稳定为主,剧烈调整是有害的。第三,当经济发展到一定阶段时,发展中国家应尽早取消对来自发达国家的资本输入优惠,减少发达国家资本对发展中国家的长期比较利益的分享。发展中国家要积极输出资本,通过输出资本长期分享全球经济快速成长地区的比较利益,减少贸易摩擦,提高本国外汇资产价值。
本文共分七章。第一章,导论。介绍选题背景、意义及研究文献回顾。第二章,全球经济失衡的现象与特征。第三章、第四章、第五章和第六章是全文核心部分,分别从四个视角对全球经济失衡形成机制进行系统分析。第七章对全球经济失衡的因素做另一角度的归类,基于此,进一步探讨了全球经济失衡的可持续性问题与再平衡对策。
This paper analyzes the formation mechanism and sustainability of the global imbalances from four perspectives, including comparative advantage and disparity of aggregate production and spending in different countries, the imbalances between investment and savings, currency mismatch and dollar-dependence in Asia countries, transnational capital flows for financial advantage gap.
Firstly, from the perspective of disparity of production and spending, because of the comparative advantage differences resulted from long-term factors such as population, resources as well as science and technology, the production is greater than spending in developing countries, while spending is greater than production in developed countries. The imbalance will exist for a long term and constitute the profound basis of global imbalance from real economy.
Secondly, from the perspective of investment and savings imbalance, high savings rate in developing countries correlate with the population structure. The high saving rate of developing countries is not the direct reason of the high expenditure of developed countries and loose credit policy and fiscal deficit of developed countries contribute to the high spending.
Thirdly, from the perspective of currency mismatch and dollar-dependence in Asia countries, Asian countries need a certain scale of U.S. dollars reserve to keep economic stability and to avoid currency crisis in export-oriented economy. Adopting managed floating exchange rate system is positive for developing countries to eliminate economic instability.
Fourthly, from the perspective of transnational capital flows under financial advantage disparity of developing countries and developed countries, the financial advantage disparity push the transnational capital flow and affect global imbalances by the channel of exchange rate.
From the above-mentioned analysis, this paper posts elements of global imbalances from three levels. Firstly, based on the real economy, the disparity of comparative advantage leads to the disparity of global production and spending. Secondly, the international currency system centering with the US dollar accelerates the global imbalances and facilitates its accumulation and sustainability in certain extent. Thirdly, other systematic factors also lead to certain distortions of global imbalances, including trade protectionism, exchange rate policy, finance deficit of US government, low long term interest rate and loose credit policy, etc.
This paper argues the significant issues of developing countries in the course of global rebalance. Firstly, a country should develop labor-intensive industry when the native residual labor has not been absorbed totally by industry sector. Secondly, the foreign exchange policy should be adjusted according to the change of comparative advantages. When the comparative advantage of the countries comes to disappearing in global dividend system, stabilization of exchange rate should be emphasized and sharp adjustment is harmful. Thirdly, developing countries should cancel the preferential policies for developed countries’capital inflow in due course and export capital actively to share global comparative advantages interest, reduce trade frictions and increase the foreign exchange asset value.
This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction and introduces the background, significance and literature review of the paper. The second chapter introduces the phenomena and characteristic of global imbalance. The third, the fourth, the fifth and the sixth chapter are the core parts of paper and they argue systematically the formation mechanism separately from four perspectives. The seventh chapter classifies the factor of global imbalances from another angle and discusses further the sustainability and countermeasures of rebalance of global imbalances.
引文
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