上海市水资源利用模式可持续性定量研究
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摘要
虽然上海坐落于黄浦江、长江入海口,由于水质差及其他原因,仍然存在严重的可用清洁水短缺问题。本文首先考虑相关理论,尝试把可持续性相关研究应用到上海水资源利用模式中。其次,分析水污染水平、可用的清洁水量及水需求的影响因素,根据改革开放以来可用清洁水量及水需求的演变趋势,探讨上海市水资源利用模式的可持续性。
为了描述上海水资源利用模式的可持续性,本文介绍了可用清洁水量指标CWA、相对可用清洁水量指标RCWA,测量可用的清洁水量与水需求的比例。根据这些指标考察上海水资源状况的重要因素是水质量问题。本文用回归分析方法评估各因素对CWA及水需求的作用及其相对重要性,并分析RCWA演变趋势,作为上海水资源利用模式可持续性的讨论基础。
经济迅速发展导致可用清洁水资源量及清洁水需求的显著增长。RCWA目前为0.65,意味着清洁水需求等于可用清洁水量的150%,对上海水资源利用模式的可持续性有很大威胁。水需求、水污染增长的缓解因素中,城市产业结构变化对水污染强度及用水强度有显著作用,而水污染强度、用水强度自1978年分别下降40%及60%。这也对水需求及可用水资源量有很大的作用。污染强度变化及用水强度变化把RCWA分别提高26个百分点及37个百分点。技术进步使RCWA上升49个百分点,而政府公布的相应数字为48个百分点。
自改革开放以来RCWA的演变趋势,可以看到1996年达到低潮,此后又呈上升趋势。本文根据RCWA指标提出水资源利用模式的可持续性标准。由于只有15年时间的为据,而RCWA还未满足城市水需求,所以现在还不能说上海水资源利用模式是可持续的。如果未来能保持目前的曲线,上海水资源利用模式有可能实现可持续性,但需要起码一代人的时间才实现,而由于其变化的波动和不确定性,现在还无法有效地预测。
Shanghai, situated on the Huangpu River and on the Yangtze River Estuary, still suffers acutely from a lack of available clean water, mainly due to poor water quality. This research paper aims first to build a thorough theoretical foundation for the application of previous sustainability research to Shanghai's water resources usage model. We then analyse the factors affecting water pollution levels and the availability of, and demand for, clean water in the city. The trends associated with clean water availability and demand since the reform and opening up provide evidence as to the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model.
In order to understand the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model, our paper introduces indicators of clean water availability, CWA, and relative clean water availability, RCWA, which measures the ratio of clean water availability to demand. These indicators take water quality into account, which is essential for any analysis of Shanghai's water resources. We apply regression analysis to determine the influence and relative importance of each factor in our model to CWA, water demand, and then subsequently to RCWA. This provides us with our basis for discussing the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model.
Rapid economic development has led to a considerable decrease in the available clean water and a corresponding increase in demand for clean water. As a result, RCWA currently stands at around 65, indicating a demand at around 150% of availability, throwing into serious doubt the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model. Of the factors alleviating the increase in water demand and water pollution caused by rapid economic development, we find that the change in composition of the city's industry during the industrial transition has exerted a significant effect both on its pollution intensity and on its water intensity, which have decreased by 40% and 60% respectively over the period from 1978. This, in turn, has had a significant effect on both water demand and clean water availability. Changing pollution intensity has increased RWCA by 26 percentage points whilst the corresponding figure for water intensity change is 37 percentage points. In addition, technological progress has led to an increase in RCWA of 49 percentage points and government measures have led to an increase of 48 percentage points.
Given the historical trends in RCWA since the reform and opening up, we see that Shanghai reached a low point in 1996 but that conditions are improving. Our paper introduces sustainability criteria for water usage models based on the RCWA indicator. Since the current improvement trend has only lasted for 15 years so far, and since the available clean water is still insufficient to satisfy demand, it is not possible to conclude that Shanghai's water usage model is sustainable. However, if current trends continue, it is possible that Shanghai's water usage model can achieve sustainability, though this will take at least a generation and is not assured, as trends in pollution intensity and water intensity will not necessarily continue at the same rate.
为了描述上海水资源利用模式的可持续性,本文介绍了可用清洁水量指标CWA、相对可用清洁水量指标RCWA,测量可用的清洁水量与水需求的比例。根据这些指标考察上海水资源状况的重要因素是水质量问题。本文用回归分析方法评估各因素对CWA及水需求的作用及其相对重要性,并分析RCWA演变趋势,作为上海水资源利用模式可持续性的讨论基础。
经济迅速发展导致可用清洁水资源量及清洁水需求的显著增长。RCWA目前为0.65,意味着清洁水需求等于可用清洁水量的150%,对上海水资源利用模式的可持续性有很大威胁。水需求、水污染增长的缓解因素中,城市产业结构变化对水污染强度及用水强度有显著作用,而水污染强度、用水强度自1978年分别下降40%及60%。这也对水需求及可用水资源量有很大的作用。污染强度变化及用水强度变化把RCWA分别提高26个百分点及37个百分点。技术进步使RCWA上升49个百分点,而政府公布的相应数字为48个百分点。
自改革开放以来RCWA的演变趋势,可以看到1996年达到低潮,此后又呈上升趋势。本文根据RCWA指标提出水资源利用模式的可持续性标准。由于只有15年时间的为据,而RCWA还未满足城市水需求,所以现在还不能说上海水资源利用模式是可持续的。如果未来能保持目前的曲线,上海水资源利用模式有可能实现可持续性,但需要起码一代人的时间才实现,而由于其变化的波动和不确定性,现在还无法有效地预测。
Shanghai, situated on the Huangpu River and on the Yangtze River Estuary, still suffers acutely from a lack of available clean water, mainly due to poor water quality. This research paper aims first to build a thorough theoretical foundation for the application of previous sustainability research to Shanghai's water resources usage model. We then analyse the factors affecting water pollution levels and the availability of, and demand for, clean water in the city. The trends associated with clean water availability and demand since the reform and opening up provide evidence as to the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model.
In order to understand the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model, our paper introduces indicators of clean water availability, CWA, and relative clean water availability, RCWA, which measures the ratio of clean water availability to demand. These indicators take water quality into account, which is essential for any analysis of Shanghai's water resources. We apply regression analysis to determine the influence and relative importance of each factor in our model to CWA, water demand, and then subsequently to RCWA. This provides us with our basis for discussing the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model.
Rapid economic development has led to a considerable decrease in the available clean water and a corresponding increase in demand for clean water. As a result, RCWA currently stands at around 65, indicating a demand at around 150% of availability, throwing into serious doubt the sustainability of Shanghai's water usage model. Of the factors alleviating the increase in water demand and water pollution caused by rapid economic development, we find that the change in composition of the city's industry during the industrial transition has exerted a significant effect both on its pollution intensity and on its water intensity, which have decreased by 40% and 60% respectively over the period from 1978. This, in turn, has had a significant effect on both water demand and clean water availability. Changing pollution intensity has increased RWCA by 26 percentage points whilst the corresponding figure for water intensity change is 37 percentage points. In addition, technological progress has led to an increase in RCWA of 49 percentage points and government measures have led to an increase of 48 percentage points.
Given the historical trends in RCWA since the reform and opening up, we see that Shanghai reached a low point in 1996 but that conditions are improving. Our paper introduces sustainability criteria for water usage models based on the RCWA indicator. Since the current improvement trend has only lasted for 15 years so far, and since the available clean water is still insufficient to satisfy demand, it is not possible to conclude that Shanghai's water usage model is sustainable. However, if current trends continue, it is possible that Shanghai's water usage model can achieve sustainability, though this will take at least a generation and is not assured, as trends in pollution intensity and water intensity will not necessarily continue at the same rate.
引文
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[31]Savenije, H.H.J. Water Scarcity Indicators:the Deception of the Numbers [J]. Phys, Chem, Earth 2000 25 3 199-204.
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[42]Sullivan, C. Calculating a Water Poverty Index [J]. World Development 2002 30 7 1195-1120.
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[44]Wackernagel, M., Schulz, N.B., Deumling, D., Linares, A.C., Jenkins, M., Kapos, V., Monfreda, C., Loh, J., Myers, N., Norgaard, R., Randers, J. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99(2002) 14 9266-9271.
[45]Wang J.Y., Da L.J., Song K., Li B.L. Temporal variations of surface water quality in urban, suburban and rural areas during rapid urbanization in Shanghai, China [J]. Environmental Pollution 152 (2008) 387-393.
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[2]Anderson, V. Alternative economic indicators [M]. London, Routledge,1991.
[3]Atkinson G, Dubourg R, Hamilton K, Munasinghe M, Pearce D, Young C. Measuring sustainable development:macroeconomics and the environment [M]. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar 1997.
[4]Auty, R.M. Pollution Patterns during the Industrial Transition [J]. The Geographical Journal Vol.163, No.2, July 1997, pp.206-215.
[5]Bruntland, G. Our Common Future:Report of the World Commission on Environment [R]. Oxford University Press 1987.
[6]Casler, S.D., Blair, P.D. Economic structure, fuel combustion, and pollution emissions [J]. Ecological Economics 22 (1997) 1927.
[7]Cassou, S.P., Hamilton, S.F. The transition from dirty to clean industries:optimal fiscal policy and the environmental Kuznets curve [J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 48 (2004) 1050-1077
[8]Chang, N.B., Yang, J., Goodrich, J.A., Daranpob, A. Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies [J]. Journal of Environmental Management 2010 Jun;91(6):1397-413.
[9]陈东景。中国工业水资源消耗强度变化的结构份额和效率份额研究[J]。中国人口、资源与环境2008年第18卷第3期。
[10]Chen, X.Q., Zong, Y.Q., Zhang, E.F., Xu, J.G., Li, S.J. Human impacts on the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China, with special reference to the impacts on the dry season water discharges into the sea [J]. Geomorphology 41 (2001) 111-123.
[11]Falkenmark, M. Forward to the Future:A Conceptual Framework for Water Dependence [J]. Ambio 1998 28 4 356-361.
[12]Falkenmark, M. Meeting water requirements of an expanding world population [J]. Philosophical Transactions:Biological Sciences 1997 352 1356 929-936.
[13]Gleick, P.H. Global Freshwater Resources:Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century [J]. Science 2003 302 5650 1524-1528.
[14]Gleick, P.H. Water in crisis:paths to sustainable water use [J]. Ecological Applications 1998 8 3 571-579.
[15]Grossman, G.M., Krueger, A.B. Economic Growth and the Environment [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press 1995, vol.110(2), pages 353-77, May
[16]何涛舟。90年代以来上海市第三产业的变动趋势与原因剖析[J]。中国城市研究第5卷第3期2010年12月。
[17]Hettige, H., Martin, P., Singh, M., Wheeler, D. The Industrial Pollution Projection System [R]. The World Bank, Policy Research Department, Environment, Infrastructure, and Agriculture Division, March 1995.
[18]侯培强、任珺、趟乃妮、王朝旭、寇永網。上海市用水量与经济发展的关系研究[J]。环境科学与管理2008,33(2)。
[19]黄沈发、王敏、杨泽生。黄浦江上游地区水环境质量演变趋势[J]。中国人口、资源与环境2007年第17卷第2期。
[20]Huang, J.P. Industry energy use and structural change:A case study of The People's Republic of China [J]. Energy Economics April 1993,0140/9883/93/020131-06.
[21]Jackson, T., Roberts, P. A review of indicators of sustainable development. A report for Scottish Enterprise Tayside [R]. Geddes Centre for Planning Research 2000.
[22]Lee, S. More players on the stage:New Trends in Shanghai's Water Pollution Control Policies [M]. China Environment Series · Issue 6 Commentaries 2003.
[23]联合国世界水资源发展报告(The 3rd United Nations World Water Development Report:Water in a Changing World) [R],联合国2009年。
[24]马乐宽、李天宏。关于生态环境需水概念与定义的探讨[J]。中国人口、资源与环境2008年第18卷第5期
[25]Mani, M., Wheeler, D. In search of pollution havens? Dirty industry in the world economy 1960-1995 [C]. PRDEI, Room Paper, Workshop 3, OECD Conference on FDI and the Environment,1999.
[26]Milman, A., Short, A. Incorporating resilience into sustainability indicators:An example for the urban water sector [J]. Global Environmental Change 18(2008) 758-767.
[27]Muller, B, Berg, M., Yao, Z.P., Zhang, X.F., Wang, D., Pfluger, A. How polluted is the Yangtze river? Water quality downstream of the Three Gorges Dam [J]. Science of the Total Environment 402(2008) 232-247.
[28]Environmental Indicators [C]. Paris. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1994.
[29]Pinfield, G. Sustainability indicators:a new tool for evaluation? [M]. Farthing S M ed Evaluation of local environmental policy, Aldershot, Avebury, 1997.
[30]Rijsberman, F.R. Water scarcity:Fact or fiction? [J]. Agricultural Water Management 80(2006) 5-22.
[31]Savenije, H.H.J. Water Scarcity Indicators:the Deception of the Numbers [J]. Phys, Chem, Earth 2000 25 3 199-204.
[32]Shalizi, Z. Addressing China's Growing Water Shortages and Associated Social and Environmental Consequences [R]. World Bank 2006 WPS3895.
[33]Shalizi, Z. China Cost of Pollution:Economic Estimates of Physical Damages [R]. World Bank 2006.
[34]Shao, M., Tang, X.Y., Zhang, Y.H., Li, W.J. City clusters in China:air and surface water pollution [J]. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2006 4 7 353-361.
[35]上海统计年鉴[M]。北京：中国统计出版社出版,1978年-2010年。
[36]上海市水资源公报[R]。上海：上海市水务局,1979年-2010年。
[37]上海市环境状况公报[R]。上海：上海环境保护局,1988年-2010年。
[38]Smakhtin, V., Revenga, C., Doll, P. Taking into Account Environmental Water Requirements in Global-scale Water Resources Assessments [R]. International Water Management Institute,2004.
[39]Solow, R.M. On the intergenerational allocation of natural resources [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol.88, No.1, Growth and Distribution: Intergenerational Problems. (Mar.,1986), pp.141-149.
[40]Song, T., Zheng, T.G., Tong, L.J. An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China:A panel cointegration approach [J]. China Economic Review 19 (2008) 381-392.
[41]Stern, D.I. Environmental Kuznets Curve [M]. Encyclopedia of Energy 2004, Volume 2.
[42]Sullivan, C. Calculating a Water Poverty Index [J]. World Development 2002 30 7 1195-1120.
[43]Vorosmarty, C.J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., Lammers, R.B. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth [J]. Science 2000 289 5477 284-288.
[44]Wackernagel, M., Schulz, N.B., Deumling, D., Linares, A.C., Jenkins, M., Kapos, V., Monfreda, C., Loh, J., Myers, N., Norgaard, R., Randers, J. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99(2002) 14 9266-9271.
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