基于Model-3/CMAQ的珠江三角洲区域空气质量模拟与校验研究
|
摘要
珠江三角洲地区大气污染已呈现出区域性复合型污染的特征,引起科学家和决策者的广泛关注。区域空气质量模拟是研究区域大气污染形成特征的重要方法,也是进行区域大气污染综合控制策略制定研究的重要手段。本研究以区域排放源清单,本地化排放处理模拟和多尺度空气质量模型(CMAQ)为主体,搭建了珠江三角洲区域空气质量模拟平台,并利用该模拟平台对珠江三角洲区域空气质量开展了模拟与初步的校验研究。
首先,针对珠江三角洲区域排放源清单开发中存在的不足和局限,本研究以2006年为基准年,收集了大量的活动水平数据,尽可能采用本地区和国内的排放因子,估算了电厂、工业源和非道路移动源等排放清单,并结合本课题组在道路移动源和天然源清单研究成果,建立起了完整的珠江三角洲区域排放源清单。珠江三角洲地区2006年排放的SO2总量大约为67.35万吨,NOx为88.39万吨,CO为389.14万吨,PM10为67.46万吨,PM2.5为34.16万吨,VOC为116.36万吨。其中,火电厂为珠江三角洲地区最大的SO2和NOx排放贡献源,贡献率分别为49.6%和37.7%。道路移动源(机动车)为CO和VOC排放量贡献最大的排放源,分别占排放总量的67.4%和41.1%。扬尘源为最大PM10排放量贡献源,贡献率为37.7%,工业源为PM2.5排放的最大贡献源,占排放总量的35.7%。
其次,以美国环保署开发的SMOKE模型为基础,基于编制的本地化排放源分类代码(SCC)、地区代码和建立的排放源时间变化特征谱及空间分配因子库等,本研究研制了适用于珠江三角洲地区的本地化排放处理模型SMOKE-PRD,可快捷准确的排放源清单转化为区域空气质量模型如CMAQ需要的输入文件。
最后,研究以Models-3/CMAQ模型为核心,搭建起了珠江三角洲区域空气质量模拟系统。以2006年10月作为典型模拟时段,对珠江三角洲区域空气质量进行了模拟,并开展了初步的校验研究。结果表明,本研究搭建的Models-3/CMAQ模型系统能较好的模拟SO2、NO2、PM10和O3浓度的时间和空间分布规律,大部分站点的模拟结果已在50%的误差范围内,具有较好的可靠性,可基本满足珠江三角洲区域空气质量模拟和控制情景分析的需要。
The regional and complex air pollution characteristics have emerged in the Pear River Delta region, and already received widespread attentions from both scientists and policy-makers. Air quality simulation is an important way to analyze regional air pollution formation characteristics, and to conduct the research of pollution control strategy setup. In this study, a newly develop regional emission inventory, a localized emission processing model, and the multi-scale air quality simulation model (CMAQ) were linked together to build a PRD-based regional air quality simulation system, and a preliminary validation by comparing the observed with simulated major pollutant concentrations was carried out based upon the modeling system.
First, considering the shortcomings and limitations of the existing PRD regional emission inventories, this study used the newly developed local or domestic emission factors, supported by a large amount of activity data from local emission sources, to develop a 2006-based PRD regional emission inventory including the power plants, industrial sources, non-road mobile sources and other sources, with the help from other members in our research group for mobile and biogenic sources. The results show that the total emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, PM10 and PM2.5 and VOC in the PRD region for the year 2006 are about 6.7×105 t, 8.8×105 t, 3.9×106 t, 6.7×105 t, 3.4×105 t and 1.2×106 t, respectively. Power plants share the largest contribution of SO2 and NOx, accounting for 49.6% and 37.7% of total emissions, respectivelThe on-road mobile sources are the largest categories for CO and VOC emissions, aresponsible for 67.4% and 41.1% of total emissions, respectively. The largest categories of PMy. nd 10 emissions were fugitive dust sources, sharing 37.7% of total emissions. While for the PM2.5 emissions, industrial sources were the highest emission ones, and account for 35.7% of the total emissions.
Second, as the basis of SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions) emission processing model, developed by USPEA, this study compiled the local source classification codes (SCC), area code, local temporal and spatial profiles, and other localized emission information, to develop a localized, SMOKE–PRD model. The SMOKE-PRD model can conveniently and accurately process sector-based emissions into the model-ready emissions input files for the use of regional air quality models such as CMAQ model.
Finally, the PRD regional air quality model system with using Models-3/CMAQ model as chemistry-transport model was established. A preliminary validation study was conducted for the period of October 2006, by comparing the simulated results from the model system with the oberseved data from regional air quality monitoring network. The results showed that the PRD regional Models-3/CMAQ model system was capable of reasonably simulating the SO2, NO2, PM10 and O3 concentration andits spatial distribution characteristic; the simulation results at the most of monitoring sites were within 50% error ranges, indicating that the system has good reliability and can basically meet the needs for the PRD regional air quality simulation and pollution control scenario analysis.
首先,针对珠江三角洲区域排放源清单开发中存在的不足和局限,本研究以2006年为基准年,收集了大量的活动水平数据,尽可能采用本地区和国内的排放因子,估算了电厂、工业源和非道路移动源等排放清单,并结合本课题组在道路移动源和天然源清单研究成果,建立起了完整的珠江三角洲区域排放源清单。珠江三角洲地区2006年排放的SO2总量大约为67.35万吨,NOx为88.39万吨,CO为389.14万吨,PM10为67.46万吨,PM2.5为34.16万吨,VOC为116.36万吨。其中,火电厂为珠江三角洲地区最大的SO2和NOx排放贡献源,贡献率分别为49.6%和37.7%。道路移动源(机动车)为CO和VOC排放量贡献最大的排放源,分别占排放总量的67.4%和41.1%。扬尘源为最大PM10排放量贡献源,贡献率为37.7%,工业源为PM2.5排放的最大贡献源,占排放总量的35.7%。
其次,以美国环保署开发的SMOKE模型为基础,基于编制的本地化排放源分类代码(SCC)、地区代码和建立的排放源时间变化特征谱及空间分配因子库等,本研究研制了适用于珠江三角洲地区的本地化排放处理模型SMOKE-PRD,可快捷准确的排放源清单转化为区域空气质量模型如CMAQ需要的输入文件。
最后,研究以Models-3/CMAQ模型为核心,搭建起了珠江三角洲区域空气质量模拟系统。以2006年10月作为典型模拟时段,对珠江三角洲区域空气质量进行了模拟,并开展了初步的校验研究。结果表明,本研究搭建的Models-3/CMAQ模型系统能较好的模拟SO2、NO2、PM10和O3浓度的时间和空间分布规律,大部分站点的模拟结果已在50%的误差范围内,具有较好的可靠性,可基本满足珠江三角洲区域空气质量模拟和控制情景分析的需要。
The regional and complex air pollution characteristics have emerged in the Pear River Delta region, and already received widespread attentions from both scientists and policy-makers. Air quality simulation is an important way to analyze regional air pollution formation characteristics, and to conduct the research of pollution control strategy setup. In this study, a newly develop regional emission inventory, a localized emission processing model, and the multi-scale air quality simulation model (CMAQ) were linked together to build a PRD-based regional air quality simulation system, and a preliminary validation by comparing the observed with simulated major pollutant concentrations was carried out based upon the modeling system.
First, considering the shortcomings and limitations of the existing PRD regional emission inventories, this study used the newly developed local or domestic emission factors, supported by a large amount of activity data from local emission sources, to develop a 2006-based PRD regional emission inventory including the power plants, industrial sources, non-road mobile sources and other sources, with the help from other members in our research group for mobile and biogenic sources. The results show that the total emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, PM10 and PM2.5 and VOC in the PRD region for the year 2006 are about 6.7×105 t, 8.8×105 t, 3.9×106 t, 6.7×105 t, 3.4×105 t and 1.2×106 t, respectively. Power plants share the largest contribution of SO2 and NOx, accounting for 49.6% and 37.7% of total emissions, respectivelThe on-road mobile sources are the largest categories for CO and VOC emissions, aresponsible for 67.4% and 41.1% of total emissions, respectively. The largest categories of PMy. nd 10 emissions were fugitive dust sources, sharing 37.7% of total emissions. While for the PM2.5 emissions, industrial sources were the highest emission ones, and account for 35.7% of the total emissions.
Second, as the basis of SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions) emission processing model, developed by USPEA, this study compiled the local source classification codes (SCC), area code, local temporal and spatial profiles, and other localized emission information, to develop a localized, SMOKE–PRD model. The SMOKE-PRD model can conveniently and accurately process sector-based emissions into the model-ready emissions input files for the use of regional air quality models such as CMAQ model.
Finally, the PRD regional air quality model system with using Models-3/CMAQ model as chemistry-transport model was established. A preliminary validation study was conducted for the period of October 2006, by comparing the simulated results from the model system with the oberseved data from regional air quality monitoring network. The results showed that the PRD regional Models-3/CMAQ model system was capable of reasonably simulating the SO2, NO2, PM10 and O3 concentration andits spatial distribution characteristic; the simulation results at the most of monitoring sites were within 50% error ranges, indicating that the system has good reliability and can basically meet the needs for the PRD regional air quality simulation and pollution control scenario analysis.
引文
[1]广东省环境保护监测中心站,香港特别行政区政府环境保护署.粤港珠江三角洲区域空气监测网络监测结果报告2005-2007 [EB/OL]. http//www.gdepb.gov.cn
[2]广东省环保局.广东省环境状况公报2003-2007 [EB/OL]. http://www.gdepb.gov.cn/zwxx/hbzkgb/index.html
[3]王淑兰,张远航,钟流举,等.珠江三角洲城市间空气污染的相互影响[J].中国环境科学, 2005, 25(2): 133-137.
[4] Wang J.L., Wang C.H., Lai C.H., et al. Characterization of ozone precursors in the Pearl River Delta by time series observation of non-methane hydrocarbons[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42: 6233-6246.
[5] Wang T., Poon C.N., Kwok Y.H., et al. Characterizing the temporal variability and emission patterns of polluting plumes in the Pearl River Delta of China[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2003, 37, 3539-3550.
[6] Shao M., Tang X.Y., Zhang Y.H., et al. City clusters in China: air and surface water pollution [J]. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2006, 4 (7), 353-361.
[7]王丽涛.北京地区空气和模拟和控制情景研究[D].北京:清华大学环境与工程系, 2006: 1-18.
[8]张强.中国区域细颗粒物排放及模拟研究[D].北京:清华大学环境科学与工程系, 2005: 99-104.
[9] EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook-2009 [M/OL]. EEA Technical report No 6/2009. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-emission-inventory-guidebook-2009
[10] Aardenne J.A., Carmichael G.R., et al. Anthropogenic NOx emissions in Asia in the period 1990-2020[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1999, 33: 633-646.
[11] Streets D.G., Tsai N.Y., et al. Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985-1997[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2000, 34: 4413-4424.
[12] Streets D.G., Gupta S., Waldhoff S.T, et al. Black carbon emissions in China, 2000[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2001, 35: 4281-4296.
[13] Kilmont Z., Streets D.G., et al. Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organiccompounds in China[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2002, 36, 1309-1322.
[14] Streets D.G., Bond T.C, Carmichael G.R., et al. An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000 [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2003, 108 (D21).
[15]白乃彬.中国大陆CO2、SO2和NOx 1°×1°网格排放估计.见:中国地区大气臭氧变化及其对气候环境的影响[M].北京:气象出版社,1996,145～150.
[16]田贺忠,郝吉明,陆永琪,朱天乐.中国氮氧化物排放清单及分布特征[J].中国环境科学, 2001, 21(6): 493-497.
[17]王丽涛,张强,郝吉明,等.中国大陆CO人为源排放清单[J].环境科学学报, 2005, 25(12): 1580-1585.
[18]张强, Zbigniew K, Streets, D. G.,等.中国人为源颗粒物排放模型及2001年排放清单估算[J].自然科学进展, 2006, 16(2): 223-230.
[19]赵斌,马建中.天津市大气污染源排放清单的建立[J].环境科学学报, 2008, 28(2): 368-375.
[20] Study of Air Quality in the Pearl River Delta. Technical report prepared by CH2M HILL (China) Limited for the Environmental Protection Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Government, under Agreement No. CE 106/98, April 2002. http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/studyrpts/files/final_rept.pdf
[21]珠江三角洲空气质量管理及监察负责小组.珠江三角洲空气质量管理计划中期回顾研究报告[R].广州:广东省环境保护监测中心站, 2007. 39-40.
[22] Causley M.C. User’s Guide for the Urban Airshed Model. VolumeⅣ: User’s Manual for the Emission Preprocessor System, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1990.
[23] Moran M.D, Scholtz M.T., et al. An overview of CEPS1.0: Version 1.0 of the Canadian Emissions Processing System for regional-scale air quality models. In the Proceedings of a Specialty Conference on Emission Inventory, 1998, 95-106.
[24] Modica L.G, Dulleba D.R, et al. Flexible Regional Emissions Data System Documentation for the 1985 NAPAP Emission Inventory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1989.
[25] William G.B., James M.G, et al. Emission subsystem, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1990.
[26] Coats C.J., High performance algorithms in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System. Microelectronics center of North Carolina, Environmental Systems Divisions, 1995.
[27] Borge R, Lumbreras J, Rodriguez E. Development of a high-resolution emission inventory for Spain using the SMOKE modeling system: Acase study for the years 2000 and 2010[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23:1026-1044.
[28]冯业荣.珠江三角洲气溶胶污染的机理分析及数值模拟研究[D].广州:中山大学大气科学系, 2006: 25-29.
[29] Armistead R., Robin D. NARSTO critical review of photochemical models and modeling [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2000, 34: 2283~2324.
[30]刘烽,吴增茂.城市大气质量模式研究进展[J].环境科学进展, 1999, 7(2): 22~30.
[31] Leonard K.P, et al.The current state and future direction of Eulerian Models in simulating the tropospheric chemistry and transport of trace species: a review [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1995, 29(2):189~222.
[32] USEPA. User Manual for the EPA Third-Generation Air Quality Modeling System (Version 4.6). EPA-600/R-99/055, 2008.
[33] Robin L.D. et al. The next generation of integrated air quality modeling: EPA’s Models-3 [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1996, 30(2): 1925~1938.
[34] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD). http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/index.html.
[35] Arnolda J.R., Dennisa R.L., Tonnesen G.S. Diagnostic evaluation of numerical air quality models with specialized ambient observations: testing the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) at selected SOS 95 ground sites [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2003, 37: 1185-1198.
[36] Zhang Y., Liu P., Pun B., Seigneur C. A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode—Part I: Evaluation protocols, databases, and meteorological predictions[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4825-4838.
[37] Zhang Y., Liu P., Queen A., et al. A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode—Part II: Gas andaerosol predictions [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4839-4855.
[38] Zhang Y., Liu P., Seigneur C. A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the summer 1999 southern oxidants study episode, Part III: Diagnostic and mechanistic evaluations. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40 : 4856-4873.
[39] Smyth S.C., Jiang W.M., et al. Evaluation of CMAQ O3 and PM2.5 performance using Pacific 2001 measurement data[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 2735-2749.
[40] Cai C., Hogrefe C., Katsafados P., et al. Performance evaluation of an air quality forecast modeling system for a summer and winter season- Photochemical oxidants and their precursors [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42: 8585-8599.
[41]张美根,韩志伟. TRACE-P期间硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐气溶胶的模拟研究[J].高原气象, 2003, 22(1): 1-5.
[42]张美根,徐永福, Itsushi, U., Akimoto, H.东亚地区春季二氧化硫的输送与转化过程研究Ⅰ.模式及其验证[J].大气科学, 2004, 28(3): 321-328.
[43]张美根.多尺度空气质量模式系统及其验证Ⅰ[J].模式系统介绍与气象要素模拟.大气科学, 2005a, 29(5): 805-813.
[44]张美根.多尺度空气质量模式系统及其验证Ⅱ[J].东亚地区对流程臭氧及其前体物模拟.大气科学, 2005b, 29(6): 926-936.
[45]王扬锋,左洪超,马雁军等.应用Models-3模式系统对沈阳市空气质量的数值模拟研究[J].环境科学学报, 2007, 27(3): 487-493.
[46]李莉,陈长虹,黄成.长江三角洲地区大气O3和PM10的区域污染特征模拟[J].环境科学, 2008, 29(1): 237-245.
[47]陈训来,冯业荣,范绍佳等.离岸型背景风和海陆风对珠江三角洲地区灰霾天气的影响[J].大气科学, 2008, 32(3): 530-541.
[48]广东省环境保护监测中心站和香港特别行政区政府环境保护署联合编制.珠江三角洲地区空气污染物排放清单编制手册[M].广州:广东省环境保护局, 2005.
[49]车汶蔚,郑君瑜,钟流举.珠江三角洲机动车污染物排放特征及分担率分析[J].环境科学研究, 2009, 22(4):456-461.
[50]余宇帆.基于专家判断的排放源清单的不确定性分析与案例研究[D].广州:华南理工大学环境科学与工程学院, 2008.
[51]郑君瑜,郑卓云,王兆礼,等.珠江三角洲天然源VOCs排放清单开发及时空特征[J].中国环境科学, 2009, 29(4): 345-350.
[52] Zhang Q., Streets D.G., He K.B., et al. NOx emission trend for China, 1995-2004:The view from the ground and the view from space[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Part D-Atmospheres, 2007, 112, D22306, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008684.
[53] Bo Y., Cai H., Xie S.D. Spatial and temporal variation of historical anthropogenic NMVOCs emission inventories in China[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2008, 8: 7297-7316.
[54] Wei W., Wang S.X., et al. Emission and speciation of non-methane volatile organic compounds from anthropogenic sources in China [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42, 4976-4988.
[55]傅立新,程玲琳,粘桂莲,等.移动污染源大气环境影响研究报告[R].北京:清华大学环境工程系, 2005, 57-93.
[56]张楚莹,王书肖,邢佳,赵瑜,郝吉明.中国能源相关的氮氧化物排放现状与发展趋势分析[J].环境科学学报, 2008, 28(12): 2470-2479.
[57] Kean A.J, Sawyer R.F, Harley R.A. A fuel-based assessment of off-road Diesel Engine emissions [J]. Journal of the Air & Waste Manage Association, 2000, 50: 1929-1939.
[58] Yang D.Q, Kwan S.H, Lu Y et al. An emission inventory of marine vessels in Shanghai in 2003[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2007, 41(15): 5183-5190.
[59] Entec. Quantification of emissions from ships associated with ship movements between ports in the European community [R]. Entec UK, July 2002, available at http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/chapter2_ship_emissions.pdf
[60] USEPA. Analysis of Commercial Marine Vessels Emissions and Fuel Consumption Data, EPA420-R-00-002, February 2000.
[61]于群,曾武涛,等. 2003年珠江三角洲经济区大气排放清单编制报告[R].广州:广东省环境保护监测中心站, 2006.
[62]张永光.中国车用燃料的现状及发展趋势[J].中国石化, 2004, 9: 42-45.
[63]中国农业年鉴编辑委员会.中国农业年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社, 2007, 166.
[64]广东农村统计年鉴编撰委员会.广东农村统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007, 100-102.
[65]梁永辉,焦伟.铁路机车柴油的研制[J].当代化工, 2007, 36(5), 462-469.
[66]国家统计局工业交通统计司和国家发展改革委员会能源局.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007, 200-201.
[67]王丽,李学铭,许妍.中国大陆秸秆露天燃烧的经济损失研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2008, 22(2): 170-174.
[68]广东省发展和改革委员会.广东省燃煤燃油火电厂脱硫工程实施方案, 2003 [EB/OL]. http://search.gd.gov.cn/detail?record=7&channelid=16317.
[69] NARSTO. Improving emission inventories for effective air quality management across north America: A NARSTO assessment, 2005 [EB/OL]. http://www.narsto.org
[70]钟流举,郑君瑜,雷国强,陈晶.大气污染物排放清单不确定性定量分析方法与案例研究[J].环境科学研究, 2007, 20(4): 15-19.
[71] Frey H.C., Bharvirkar R., Zheng J.Y. Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Emissions Estimation, Prepared by North Carolina State University for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999.
[72] UNC. SMOKE v2.4 User's Manual, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill [EB/OL]. Available online: http://www.smoke-model.org/version2.4/html/
[73] CMAQ v4.6 Operational Guidance Document. Available online [EB/OL]: http://www.cmaq-model.org/op_guidance_4.6/html/
[74]国家统计局.县及县以上行政区划代码[EB/OL], 2007. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjbz/xzqhdm/t20090626_402568086.htm
[75] Occupational Safety & Health Administration, US Department of Labor. SIC MANUAL: http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sic_manual.html.
[76] Zhang, Q., and Streets, D.G., 2008. 2006 Asia Emissions for INTEX-B. Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory[DB/OL]. http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/EMISSION_DATA_new/index_16.html
[77] National Center for Atmospheric Research. PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Modeling System Tutorial Class Notes and User’s Guide: MM5 Modeling System Version 3.7. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2006.
[78]申培鲁.中尺度模式MM5本地化应用研究[D].兰州:兰州大学大气科学学院, 2007: 1-7.
[79] Eder B, Yu S.C. A performance evaluation of the 2004 release of Models-3 CMAQ [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4811-4824.
[80] Eder B, Kang D W, Mathur R, et al. An operational evaluation of the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4894-4905.
[81]张振钿,张远航,钟流举,等.珠江三角洲光化学污染控制对策研究[R].广州:广东省环境保护监测中心站, 2008, 11-16.
[82]蔡德明.应用Models-3/CMAQ以PC cluster研究高速公路网与发电厂对南高屏地区臭氧浓度之影响[D].台湾:国立成功大学环境工程研究所, 2006.
[83] Huang J-P., J. Fung, Y. Zhang, A., et al. Improvement of Air Quality Modeling in Hong Kong by Using MM5 Coupled with LSM, 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 Users' Conference, September 26-28, 2005, Chapel Hill, NC.
[84]吴兑,郑君瑜,刘乙敏,等.珠江三角洲光化学烟污染预报预警系统研究[R].广州:中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所, 2009.
[85]刘宁微,纪瑞鹏.地表物理参数影响MM5模式预报的个例分析[J].辽宁气象, 2005, 3: 2-4.
[86] Lo C.F, Lau A.K.H., Fung J.C.H. Impact of land surface process in MM5 over Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta. 14th MM5 User’s Workshop. 22-25 June 2004, Boulder, Colorado.
[87]尹沙沙,郑君瑜,张礼俊,钟流举.珠江三角洲人为氨源排放清单及特征[J].环境科学, 2010, 31(5): 1146-1151.
[88] Yu S.C, Mathur R, Kang D.W, et al. A study of the ozone formation by ensemble back trajectory-process analysis using the Eta-CMAQ forecast model over the northeastern U.S. during the 2004 ICARTT period [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2009, 43: 355-363.
[89] Hu, X.M., Zhang Y, Jacobson M. Z., and Chan C. K. Coupling and evaluating gas/particle mass transfer treatments for aerosol simulation and forecast [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2008, 113, D11208, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009588.
[90] Zheng J.Y., Zhong L.J., Wang T., et al. Ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta region: Analysis of data from a recently established regional air quality monitoring network [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2010, 44(6): 814-823.
[91] Shao M., Zhang Y.H., Zeng L.M., et al. Ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta andthe roles of VOC and NOx in its production [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2009, 90: 512-518.
[92] Zhang Y.H., Su H., Zhong L.J., et al. Regional ozone pollution and observation-based approach for analyzing ozone–precursor relationship during the PRIDE-PRD2004 campaign [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42(25): 6203-6218.
[93]郑君瑜,张礼俊,钟流举,王兆礼.珠江三角洲大气面源排放清单及空间分布特征[J].中国环境科学, 2009, 29(5): 455-460.
[94]范家凤.东亚出流对春季大台北地区臭氧的影响[D].台湾:国立中央大学大气物理研究所, 2007.
[95] Ding A.J., Wang T., Zhao M., et al. Simulation of sea-landbreezes anda discussion of their implications on the transport of air pollution during a multi-day ozone episode in the Pearl River Delta of China [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2004, 38: 6737-6750.
[2]广东省环保局.广东省环境状况公报2003-2007 [EB/OL]. http://www.gdepb.gov.cn/zwxx/hbzkgb/index.html
[3]王淑兰,张远航,钟流举,等.珠江三角洲城市间空气污染的相互影响[J].中国环境科学, 2005, 25(2): 133-137.
[4] Wang J.L., Wang C.H., Lai C.H., et al. Characterization of ozone precursors in the Pearl River Delta by time series observation of non-methane hydrocarbons[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42: 6233-6246.
[5] Wang T., Poon C.N., Kwok Y.H., et al. Characterizing the temporal variability and emission patterns of polluting plumes in the Pearl River Delta of China[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2003, 37, 3539-3550.
[6] Shao M., Tang X.Y., Zhang Y.H., et al. City clusters in China: air and surface water pollution [J]. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2006, 4 (7), 353-361.
[7]王丽涛.北京地区空气和模拟和控制情景研究[D].北京:清华大学环境与工程系, 2006: 1-18.
[8]张强.中国区域细颗粒物排放及模拟研究[D].北京:清华大学环境科学与工程系, 2005: 99-104.
[9] EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook-2009 [M/OL]. EEA Technical report No 6/2009. http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-emission-inventory-guidebook-2009
[10] Aardenne J.A., Carmichael G.R., et al. Anthropogenic NOx emissions in Asia in the period 1990-2020[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1999, 33: 633-646.
[11] Streets D.G., Tsai N.Y., et al. Sulfur dioxide emissions in Asia in the period 1985-1997[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2000, 34: 4413-4424.
[12] Streets D.G., Gupta S., Waldhoff S.T, et al. Black carbon emissions in China, 2000[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2001, 35: 4281-4296.
[13] Kilmont Z., Streets D.G., et al. Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organiccompounds in China[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2002, 36, 1309-1322.
[14] Streets D.G., Bond T.C, Carmichael G.R., et al. An inventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000 [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2003, 108 (D21).
[15]白乃彬.中国大陆CO2、SO2和NOx 1°×1°网格排放估计.见:中国地区大气臭氧变化及其对气候环境的影响[M].北京:气象出版社,1996,145～150.
[16]田贺忠,郝吉明,陆永琪,朱天乐.中国氮氧化物排放清单及分布特征[J].中国环境科学, 2001, 21(6): 493-497.
[17]王丽涛,张强,郝吉明,等.中国大陆CO人为源排放清单[J].环境科学学报, 2005, 25(12): 1580-1585.
[18]张强, Zbigniew K, Streets, D. G.,等.中国人为源颗粒物排放模型及2001年排放清单估算[J].自然科学进展, 2006, 16(2): 223-230.
[19]赵斌,马建中.天津市大气污染源排放清单的建立[J].环境科学学报, 2008, 28(2): 368-375.
[20] Study of Air Quality in the Pearl River Delta. Technical report prepared by CH2M HILL (China) Limited for the Environmental Protection Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Government, under Agreement No. CE 106/98, April 2002. http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/studyrpts/files/final_rept.pdf
[21]珠江三角洲空气质量管理及监察负责小组.珠江三角洲空气质量管理计划中期回顾研究报告[R].广州:广东省环境保护监测中心站, 2007. 39-40.
[22] Causley M.C. User’s Guide for the Urban Airshed Model. VolumeⅣ: User’s Manual for the Emission Preprocessor System, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1990.
[23] Moran M.D, Scholtz M.T., et al. An overview of CEPS1.0: Version 1.0 of the Canadian Emissions Processing System for regional-scale air quality models. In the Proceedings of a Specialty Conference on Emission Inventory, 1998, 95-106.
[24] Modica L.G, Dulleba D.R, et al. Flexible Regional Emissions Data System Documentation for the 1985 NAPAP Emission Inventory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1989.
[25] William G.B., James M.G, et al. Emission subsystem, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1990.
[26] Coats C.J., High performance algorithms in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System. Microelectronics center of North Carolina, Environmental Systems Divisions, 1995.
[27] Borge R, Lumbreras J, Rodriguez E. Development of a high-resolution emission inventory for Spain using the SMOKE modeling system: Acase study for the years 2000 and 2010[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 23:1026-1044.
[28]冯业荣.珠江三角洲气溶胶污染的机理分析及数值模拟研究[D].广州:中山大学大气科学系, 2006: 25-29.
[29] Armistead R., Robin D. NARSTO critical review of photochemical models and modeling [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2000, 34: 2283~2324.
[30]刘烽,吴增茂.城市大气质量模式研究进展[J].环境科学进展, 1999, 7(2): 22~30.
[31] Leonard K.P, et al.The current state and future direction of Eulerian Models in simulating the tropospheric chemistry and transport of trace species: a review [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1995, 29(2):189~222.
[32] USEPA. User Manual for the EPA Third-Generation Air Quality Modeling System (Version 4.6). EPA-600/R-99/055, 2008.
[33] Robin L.D. et al. The next generation of integrated air quality modeling: EPA’s Models-3 [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 1996, 30(2): 1925~1938.
[34] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD). http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/index.html.
[35] Arnolda J.R., Dennisa R.L., Tonnesen G.S. Diagnostic evaluation of numerical air quality models with specialized ambient observations: testing the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) at selected SOS 95 ground sites [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2003, 37: 1185-1198.
[36] Zhang Y., Liu P., Pun B., Seigneur C. A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode—Part I: Evaluation protocols, databases, and meteorological predictions[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4825-4838.
[37] Zhang Y., Liu P., Queen A., et al. A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode—Part II: Gas andaerosol predictions [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4839-4855.
[38] Zhang Y., Liu P., Seigneur C. A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the summer 1999 southern oxidants study episode, Part III: Diagnostic and mechanistic evaluations. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40 : 4856-4873.
[39] Smyth S.C., Jiang W.M., et al. Evaluation of CMAQ O3 and PM2.5 performance using Pacific 2001 measurement data[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 2735-2749.
[40] Cai C., Hogrefe C., Katsafados P., et al. Performance evaluation of an air quality forecast modeling system for a summer and winter season- Photochemical oxidants and their precursors [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42: 8585-8599.
[41]张美根,韩志伟. TRACE-P期间硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐气溶胶的模拟研究[J].高原气象, 2003, 22(1): 1-5.
[42]张美根,徐永福, Itsushi, U., Akimoto, H.东亚地区春季二氧化硫的输送与转化过程研究Ⅰ.模式及其验证[J].大气科学, 2004, 28(3): 321-328.
[43]张美根.多尺度空气质量模式系统及其验证Ⅰ[J].模式系统介绍与气象要素模拟.大气科学, 2005a, 29(5): 805-813.
[44]张美根.多尺度空气质量模式系统及其验证Ⅱ[J].东亚地区对流程臭氧及其前体物模拟.大气科学, 2005b, 29(6): 926-936.
[45]王扬锋,左洪超,马雁军等.应用Models-3模式系统对沈阳市空气质量的数值模拟研究[J].环境科学学报, 2007, 27(3): 487-493.
[46]李莉,陈长虹,黄成.长江三角洲地区大气O3和PM10的区域污染特征模拟[J].环境科学, 2008, 29(1): 237-245.
[47]陈训来,冯业荣,范绍佳等.离岸型背景风和海陆风对珠江三角洲地区灰霾天气的影响[J].大气科学, 2008, 32(3): 530-541.
[48]广东省环境保护监测中心站和香港特别行政区政府环境保护署联合编制.珠江三角洲地区空气污染物排放清单编制手册[M].广州:广东省环境保护局, 2005.
[49]车汶蔚,郑君瑜,钟流举.珠江三角洲机动车污染物排放特征及分担率分析[J].环境科学研究, 2009, 22(4):456-461.
[50]余宇帆.基于专家判断的排放源清单的不确定性分析与案例研究[D].广州:华南理工大学环境科学与工程学院, 2008.
[51]郑君瑜,郑卓云,王兆礼,等.珠江三角洲天然源VOCs排放清单开发及时空特征[J].中国环境科学, 2009, 29(4): 345-350.
[52] Zhang Q., Streets D.G., He K.B., et al. NOx emission trend for China, 1995-2004:The view from the ground and the view from space[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Part D-Atmospheres, 2007, 112, D22306, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008684.
[53] Bo Y., Cai H., Xie S.D. Spatial and temporal variation of historical anthropogenic NMVOCs emission inventories in China[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2008, 8: 7297-7316.
[54] Wei W., Wang S.X., et al. Emission and speciation of non-methane volatile organic compounds from anthropogenic sources in China [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42, 4976-4988.
[55]傅立新,程玲琳,粘桂莲,等.移动污染源大气环境影响研究报告[R].北京:清华大学环境工程系, 2005, 57-93.
[56]张楚莹,王书肖,邢佳,赵瑜,郝吉明.中国能源相关的氮氧化物排放现状与发展趋势分析[J].环境科学学报, 2008, 28(12): 2470-2479.
[57] Kean A.J, Sawyer R.F, Harley R.A. A fuel-based assessment of off-road Diesel Engine emissions [J]. Journal of the Air & Waste Manage Association, 2000, 50: 1929-1939.
[58] Yang D.Q, Kwan S.H, Lu Y et al. An emission inventory of marine vessels in Shanghai in 2003[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2007, 41(15): 5183-5190.
[59] Entec. Quantification of emissions from ships associated with ship movements between ports in the European community [R]. Entec UK, July 2002, available at http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/pdf/chapter2_ship_emissions.pdf
[60] USEPA. Analysis of Commercial Marine Vessels Emissions and Fuel Consumption Data, EPA420-R-00-002, February 2000.
[61]于群,曾武涛,等. 2003年珠江三角洲经济区大气排放清单编制报告[R].广州:广东省环境保护监测中心站, 2006.
[62]张永光.中国车用燃料的现状及发展趋势[J].中国石化, 2004, 9: 42-45.
[63]中国农业年鉴编辑委员会.中国农业年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社, 2007, 166.
[64]广东农村统计年鉴编撰委员会.广东农村统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007, 100-102.
[65]梁永辉,焦伟.铁路机车柴油的研制[J].当代化工, 2007, 36(5), 462-469.
[66]国家统计局工业交通统计司和国家发展改革委员会能源局.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2007, 200-201.
[67]王丽,李学铭,许妍.中国大陆秸秆露天燃烧的经济损失研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2008, 22(2): 170-174.
[68]广东省发展和改革委员会.广东省燃煤燃油火电厂脱硫工程实施方案, 2003 [EB/OL]. http://search.gd.gov.cn/detail?record=7&channelid=16317.
[69] NARSTO. Improving emission inventories for effective air quality management across north America: A NARSTO assessment, 2005 [EB/OL]. http://www.narsto.org
[70]钟流举,郑君瑜,雷国强,陈晶.大气污染物排放清单不确定性定量分析方法与案例研究[J].环境科学研究, 2007, 20(4): 15-19.
[71] Frey H.C., Bharvirkar R., Zheng J.Y. Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Emissions Estimation, Prepared by North Carolina State University for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1999.
[72] UNC. SMOKE v2.4 User's Manual, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill [EB/OL]. Available online: http://www.smoke-model.org/version2.4/html/
[73] CMAQ v4.6 Operational Guidance Document. Available online [EB/OL]: http://www.cmaq-model.org/op_guidance_4.6/html/
[74]国家统计局.县及县以上行政区划代码[EB/OL], 2007. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjbz/xzqhdm/t20090626_402568086.htm
[75] Occupational Safety & Health Administration, US Department of Labor. SIC MANUAL: http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sic_manual.html.
[76] Zhang, Q., and Streets, D.G., 2008. 2006 Asia Emissions for INTEX-B. Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory[DB/OL]. http://www.cgrer.uiowa.edu/EMISSION_DATA_new/index_16.html
[77] National Center for Atmospheric Research. PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Modeling System Tutorial Class Notes and User’s Guide: MM5 Modeling System Version 3.7. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2006.
[78]申培鲁.中尺度模式MM5本地化应用研究[D].兰州:兰州大学大气科学学院, 2007: 1-7.
[79] Eder B, Yu S.C. A performance evaluation of the 2004 release of Models-3 CMAQ [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4811-4824.
[80] Eder B, Kang D W, Mathur R, et al. An operational evaluation of the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2006, 40: 4894-4905.
[81]张振钿,张远航,钟流举,等.珠江三角洲光化学污染控制对策研究[R].广州:广东省环境保护监测中心站, 2008, 11-16.
[82]蔡德明.应用Models-3/CMAQ以PC cluster研究高速公路网与发电厂对南高屏地区臭氧浓度之影响[D].台湾:国立成功大学环境工程研究所, 2006.
[83] Huang J-P., J. Fung, Y. Zhang, A., et al. Improvement of Air Quality Modeling in Hong Kong by Using MM5 Coupled with LSM, 4th Annual CMAS Models-3 Users' Conference, September 26-28, 2005, Chapel Hill, NC.
[84]吴兑,郑君瑜,刘乙敏,等.珠江三角洲光化学烟污染预报预警系统研究[R].广州:中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所, 2009.
[85]刘宁微,纪瑞鹏.地表物理参数影响MM5模式预报的个例分析[J].辽宁气象, 2005, 3: 2-4.
[86] Lo C.F, Lau A.K.H., Fung J.C.H. Impact of land surface process in MM5 over Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta. 14th MM5 User’s Workshop. 22-25 June 2004, Boulder, Colorado.
[87]尹沙沙,郑君瑜,张礼俊,钟流举.珠江三角洲人为氨源排放清单及特征[J].环境科学, 2010, 31(5): 1146-1151.
[88] Yu S.C, Mathur R, Kang D.W, et al. A study of the ozone formation by ensemble back trajectory-process analysis using the Eta-CMAQ forecast model over the northeastern U.S. during the 2004 ICARTT period [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2009, 43: 355-363.
[89] Hu, X.M., Zhang Y, Jacobson M. Z., and Chan C. K. Coupling and evaluating gas/particle mass transfer treatments for aerosol simulation and forecast [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2008, 113, D11208, doi: 10.1029/2007JD009588.
[90] Zheng J.Y., Zhong L.J., Wang T., et al. Ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta region: Analysis of data from a recently established regional air quality monitoring network [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2010, 44(6): 814-823.
[91] Shao M., Zhang Y.H., Zeng L.M., et al. Ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta andthe roles of VOC and NOx in its production [J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2009, 90: 512-518.
[92] Zhang Y.H., Su H., Zhong L.J., et al. Regional ozone pollution and observation-based approach for analyzing ozone–precursor relationship during the PRIDE-PRD2004 campaign [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42(25): 6203-6218.
[93]郑君瑜,张礼俊,钟流举,王兆礼.珠江三角洲大气面源排放清单及空间分布特征[J].中国环境科学, 2009, 29(5): 455-460.
[94]范家凤.东亚出流对春季大台北地区臭氧的影响[D].台湾:国立中央大学大气物理研究所, 2007.
[95] Ding A.J., Wang T., Zhao M., et al. Simulation of sea-landbreezes anda discussion of their implications on the transport of air pollution during a multi-day ozone episode in the Pearl River Delta of China [J]. Atmospheric Environment, 2004, 38: 6737-6750.