酒店投资项目可行性分析方法系研究
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摘要
伴随着我国旅游业、酒店业的迅速发展,特别是2008年北京奥运会、2010年上海世博会和2010年亚运会的即将举行,各地宾馆酒店正迎来建设高峰。据酒店业的全球权威机构--全球饭店统计协会(Lodging Econometrics LE)报告:截至2007年第一季度,中国目前有496个酒店在建项目,总共170,417间客房,占亚太地区在建酒店客房的66%,且中国酒店在建项目在世界上仅次于美国。
如此众多的酒店投资项目,如何保证这些项目获得成功,实现其建设预算目标和经营预测目标,并最终使酒店业主、投资者及酒店运营商满意,这就需要有效的可行性研究作为基本保证,特别是先进地、科学的、系统的可行性研究理论及其工具与技术在酒店投资项目中的应用。
本论文正是针对上述问题,从酒店管理公司认识酒店投资项目角度,以昆山市DF度假酒店为例,以投资项目的可行性研究、项目管理理论与方法为主要理论依据并结合酒店可行性研究项目的实践,进行酒店投资项目可行性分析的方法系研究,即研究酒店投资项目可行性分析工作中所使用的做法、程序、技术和规则。论文以可行性研究项目的主要项目范围如市场可行性分析、经济可行性分析、不确定性分析、项目财务评价为主线,以定性分析和定量分析方法相结合,重点研究酒店投资经济环境分析、酒店选址分析、区域酒店业现状分析、市场需求分析、竞争对手分析、关键经营假设、经营预测、财务效益指标计算、敏感性分析、盈亏性分析、风险性分析、财务评价等方面在酒店可行性研究项目中的实际应用,并运用了WBS、WBS词汇表、PDM前导图、SWOT分析、经营预测模型、净现值、投资回收期、内部收益率、GOP率、期望货币值等工具与技术。
本论文旨在使酒店业主、投资者、酒店运营商及相关参与者更加清晰地认识并能进一步运用酒店投资项目可行性分析的方法。
With the rapid development of China tourism industry and hotel industry, especially 2008 Beijing Olympics Games, 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, 2010 Asian Games coming, hotel projects in the pipeline in different areas of China are at a hectic pace. Lodging Econometrics, the Global Authority for Hotel Real Estate reported China has 496 hotel projects having 170,417 rooms in the pipeline by the end of first Quarter 2007.It counts for 66% of total guestrooms in the Asia Pacific Regional pipeline and second only to the U.S.
How to gurantee so many hotel investment projects succeed and meet their objectives of development budget and trading projection, finally keep hotel owners, hotel investors and hotel operators satisfied, a comprehensive feasibility study should be made before launching any hotel investment projects, especially application of advanced, scientific, systematic theories and tools and techniques of feasibility study for hotel investment projects.
Aiming at the issues above and from the viewpoint of a hotel Management Company to understand hotel investment projects, this paper takes the Kunshan DF Resort Hotel for example and according to the theories and methods of feasibility study for investment projects and project management as the major theoretical basis in combination with practice of feasibility study for hotel projects, this paper conducts the methodology research of feasibility study for hotel investment projects,namely studies the system of practices,procedures,techniques,rules used by those who work in the feasibility study for hotel investment projects.
This paper mainly focuses on the major project scope of feasibility study projects such as market feasibility analysis, economy feasibility analysis, uncertain analysis, financial evaluation. In combination with qualitative analysis and quatitative analysis method,this paper mainly studies practical application of feasibility study for hotel projects by utilizing economic environmental analysis,site analysis,lodging supply analysis,lodging demand analysis,competitor analysis, key operation assumption and trading projection, financial performance index calculation, scenario analysis and financial evaluation. In addition, it also applies tools and techniques such as Trading Projection Model,Work Breakdown Structure,WBS Dictionary,Precedence Diagramming Method, Net Present Value,Payback Period,Internal Return Rate,GOP Rate,Expected Monetary Value etc.
The purpose of this paper is for hotel owners, hotel investors, hotel operators and related participators to further understand and practise the methods of feasibility study for hotel investment projects.
如此众多的酒店投资项目,如何保证这些项目获得成功,实现其建设预算目标和经营预测目标,并最终使酒店业主、投资者及酒店运营商满意,这就需要有效的可行性研究作为基本保证,特别是先进地、科学的、系统的可行性研究理论及其工具与技术在酒店投资项目中的应用。
本论文正是针对上述问题,从酒店管理公司认识酒店投资项目角度,以昆山市DF度假酒店为例,以投资项目的可行性研究、项目管理理论与方法为主要理论依据并结合酒店可行性研究项目的实践,进行酒店投资项目可行性分析的方法系研究,即研究酒店投资项目可行性分析工作中所使用的做法、程序、技术和规则。论文以可行性研究项目的主要项目范围如市场可行性分析、经济可行性分析、不确定性分析、项目财务评价为主线,以定性分析和定量分析方法相结合,重点研究酒店投资经济环境分析、酒店选址分析、区域酒店业现状分析、市场需求分析、竞争对手分析、关键经营假设、经营预测、财务效益指标计算、敏感性分析、盈亏性分析、风险性分析、财务评价等方面在酒店可行性研究项目中的实际应用,并运用了WBS、WBS词汇表、PDM前导图、SWOT分析、经营预测模型、净现值、投资回收期、内部收益率、GOP率、期望货币值等工具与技术。
本论文旨在使酒店业主、投资者、酒店运营商及相关参与者更加清晰地认识并能进一步运用酒店投资项目可行性分析的方法。
With the rapid development of China tourism industry and hotel industry, especially 2008 Beijing Olympics Games, 2010 World Expo in Shanghai, 2010 Asian Games coming, hotel projects in the pipeline in different areas of China are at a hectic pace. Lodging Econometrics, the Global Authority for Hotel Real Estate reported China has 496 hotel projects having 170,417 rooms in the pipeline by the end of first Quarter 2007.It counts for 66% of total guestrooms in the Asia Pacific Regional pipeline and second only to the U.S.
How to gurantee so many hotel investment projects succeed and meet their objectives of development budget and trading projection, finally keep hotel owners, hotel investors and hotel operators satisfied, a comprehensive feasibility study should be made before launching any hotel investment projects, especially application of advanced, scientific, systematic theories and tools and techniques of feasibility study for hotel investment projects.
Aiming at the issues above and from the viewpoint of a hotel Management Company to understand hotel investment projects, this paper takes the Kunshan DF Resort Hotel for example and according to the theories and methods of feasibility study for investment projects and project management as the major theoretical basis in combination with practice of feasibility study for hotel projects, this paper conducts the methodology research of feasibility study for hotel investment projects,namely studies the system of practices,procedures,techniques,rules used by those who work in the feasibility study for hotel investment projects.
This paper mainly focuses on the major project scope of feasibility study projects such as market feasibility analysis, economy feasibility analysis, uncertain analysis, financial evaluation. In combination with qualitative analysis and quatitative analysis method,this paper mainly studies practical application of feasibility study for hotel projects by utilizing economic environmental analysis,site analysis,lodging supply analysis,lodging demand analysis,competitor analysis, key operation assumption and trading projection, financial performance index calculation, scenario analysis and financial evaluation. In addition, it also applies tools and techniques such as Trading Projection Model,Work Breakdown Structure,WBS Dictionary,Precedence Diagramming Method, Net Present Value,Payback Period,Internal Return Rate,GOP Rate,Expected Monetary Value etc.
The purpose of this paper is for hotel owners, hotel investors, hotel operators and related participators to further understand and practise the methods of feasibility study for hotel investment projects.
引文
[1]国家旅游局信息中心.中国旅游饭店发展现状、趋势及面临的挑战.中国旅游网,2007
[2] Hotel Construction in the Asia Pacific Region is at a Torrid Pace.www.lodging-econometrics.com, 2007
[3]李霞.中国酒店投资发展阶段划分与特征分析.中外酒店,2008,4
[4] Stephen Rushmore.Hotel Investments Handbook.Hospitality Consulting& Valuation Services,2002, 4-22
[5]张昕丽.饭店区位的开发理论.中国旅游报,2005
[6]林壁属.旅游饭店实务管理.北京:清华大学出版社,2005,107-122
[7]邓新华.饭店投资的可行性研究.长沙:湖南师范大学出版社,2005,3-68
[8]陈雪琼.中国饭店业投资行为诸要素分析.商业研究,2006,9(361):174-177
[9]马勇,周娟.饭店投资策略与精细化建设管理.北京:中国旅游出版社,2008,123-158
[10]王维才,戴淑芬,肖玉新.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理.北京:冶金工业出版社,2007,52-98
[11]王静.旅游研究方法体系初探.桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2005,16(3):13-17
[12]李永梅,张艳红,汪军.财务预测理论与实务.上海:立信会计出版社,2005,33
[13]李弘,董大海.市场营销学.大连:大连理工大学出版社,1998,34-182
[14]宋维佳,王立国,王红岩.可行性研究与项目评估.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2007,52
[15]杰克.吉多,詹姆斯.克莱门斯,成功的项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,1999,6-8
[16] A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge Third Edition (PMBOK Guide). Project Management Institute,2005, 82-384
[17]凯西施瓦尔贝,IT项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2002,401
[18] Elie.Youne,Russell.Kett.Hotel Investment Risk:What are the Chances. Hospitality Consulting& Valuation Services,2006
[19] Graeme.Newell,Ross.Seabrook.Factors influencing hotel investment decision making. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2006, 24:279-294
[20] Horwath Asia Pacific,China Hotel Market Outlook,www.ih-ra.com,2005
[21] Larry.Yu,Gu.Huimin,Hotel Reform in China:A SWOT Analysis,Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly,2005,5(46):153-169
[22]大卫.R.安德森,丹尼斯.J.司威尼,托马斯.A.威廉姆斯.商务与经济统计学精要.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000,525
[23] Hotel Digest 2007. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels,2007,1-2
[24] Rushmore and Arasi. How to Commission a Feasibility Study. Hospitality Consulting& Valuation Services,Lodging Hospitality,1986,24-28
[25] Updated Market Study and Site Feasibility Analysis for a Convention Center to be located in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels,2006
[26] Dick.Shellenberger.Market Feasibility Study for Proposed Hotel/Convention Center Facility Lancaster, PA, PKF Consulting,2006
[27]郑向敏.酒店管理.北京:清华大学出版社,2005,304-327
[28]江英军.现代旅游饭店筹建实务.北京:中国旅游出版社,2003,1-7
[29]吕建中.现代旅游饭店管理.北京:中国旅游出版社,2004
[2] Hotel Construction in the Asia Pacific Region is at a Torrid Pace.www.lodging-econometrics.com, 2007
[3]李霞.中国酒店投资发展阶段划分与特征分析.中外酒店,2008,4
[4] Stephen Rushmore.Hotel Investments Handbook.Hospitality Consulting& Valuation Services,2002, 4-22
[5]张昕丽.饭店区位的开发理论.中国旅游报,2005
[6]林壁属.旅游饭店实务管理.北京:清华大学出版社,2005,107-122
[7]邓新华.饭店投资的可行性研究.长沙:湖南师范大学出版社,2005,3-68
[8]陈雪琼.中国饭店业投资行为诸要素分析.商业研究,2006,9(361):174-177
[9]马勇,周娟.饭店投资策略与精细化建设管理.北京:中国旅游出版社,2008,123-158
[10]王维才,戴淑芬,肖玉新.投资项目可行性分析与项目管理.北京:冶金工业出版社,2007,52-98
[11]王静.旅游研究方法体系初探.桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2005,16(3):13-17
[12]李永梅,张艳红,汪军.财务预测理论与实务.上海:立信会计出版社,2005,33
[13]李弘,董大海.市场营销学.大连:大连理工大学出版社,1998,34-182
[14]宋维佳,王立国,王红岩.可行性研究与项目评估.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2007,52
[15]杰克.吉多,詹姆斯.克莱门斯,成功的项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,1999,6-8
[16] A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge Third Edition (PMBOK Guide). Project Management Institute,2005, 82-384
[17]凯西施瓦尔贝,IT项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2002,401
[18] Elie.Youne,Russell.Kett.Hotel Investment Risk:What are the Chances. Hospitality Consulting& Valuation Services,2006
[19] Graeme.Newell,Ross.Seabrook.Factors influencing hotel investment decision making. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2006, 24:279-294
[20] Horwath Asia Pacific,China Hotel Market Outlook,www.ih-ra.com,2005
[21] Larry.Yu,Gu.Huimin,Hotel Reform in China:A SWOT Analysis,Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly,2005,5(46):153-169
[22]大卫.R.安德森,丹尼斯.J.司威尼,托马斯.A.威廉姆斯.商务与经济统计学精要.大连:东北财经大学出版社,2000,525
[23] Hotel Digest 2007. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels,2007,1-2
[24] Rushmore and Arasi. How to Commission a Feasibility Study. Hospitality Consulting& Valuation Services,Lodging Hospitality,1986,24-28
[25] Updated Market Study and Site Feasibility Analysis for a Convention Center to be located in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels,2006
[26] Dick.Shellenberger.Market Feasibility Study for Proposed Hotel/Convention Center Facility Lancaster, PA, PKF Consulting,2006
[27]郑向敏.酒店管理.北京:清华大学出版社,2005,304-327
[28]江英军.现代旅游饭店筹建实务.北京:中国旅游出版社,2003,1-7
[29]吕建中.现代旅游饭店管理.北京:中国旅游出版社,2004