编组站货物列车发车模式分析及策略优化研究
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摘要
我国经济发展的巨大成就为铁路运输的发展提供了强大的动力。在经济发展的拉动下,我国铁路通过扩大路网规模、修建客运专线、更新技术设备、发展重载运输以及提速等手段,极大地缓解了供需矛盾。为了适应新时期货主对运输质量的新要求,铁路又通过推出“五定”班列、行邮行包专列等货运新品种,压缩编组站数量,增加直达货物列车的开行比例,加快发展铁路集装箱运输等方式,一定程度上提高了货物运输的质量。
但由于通过编组站改编的货物列车,仍是铁路货物运输的主要部分。目前除了铁路运输供给能力仍不能满足货物运输的需求外,铁路货物运输的时效性差是一个突出的问题。我国目前实行的仍是组织型的行车组织体制,要全面提高我国铁路货物运输的服务质量,改善货物运输的时效性,单靠增加运输能力是不够的,还必须对我国的现有铁路行车组织方式进行改革。而编组站的工作组织优化是铁路行车组织改革的关键所在。
编组站发车模式优化问题的研究,对于指导我国编组站工作组织改革,全面提高货物运输服务质量,有着重要的意义。论文以理论研究为主,并充分借鉴和参考以往的研究成果,采用系统的观点,运用运输组织、最优化理论、数理统计、系统科学等学科的理论,对发车模式优化中的有关参数和规律进行了深入的研究。本文的研究内容主要包括以下几个方面。
(1)对发车模式的优化问题进行了系统分析,根据在编组站编组列车时满轴、正点、不违编这3个基本原则,对发车模式进行了分类,并把发车模式的优化问题转变成为寻找最优的最小编成辆数的问题。
(2)通过数理统计方法分析了车流的到达统计规律,并指出了车流规律拟合过程中,数据的分时段统计特性,使拟合的统计规律更符合客观实际情况;对于车流到达规律发生变化的情况,给出了样本容量不足条件下车流到达规律的贝叶斯估计方法。
(3)为了准确测度发车模式不同产生的运输成本的变化,对发车模式给编组站工作组织产生的影响进行了综合分析,指出了因最小编成辆数的改变在编发系统和到解系统内产生的影响,并通过仿真的方法,研究了最小编成辆数变化对列车出发秩序和出发均衡性的影响。
(4)把编组站车辆的集结和编发过程看作一个系统,根据发车模式对编组站工作组织的综合影响分析,选用适当的指标和运输成本计算方法,根据车流到达规律和车辆集结编发过程以及相关约束,对选择不同发车模式给编组站带来的运输成本的改变进行了测度。
(5)在分析和借鉴已有的关于编组站货物列车发车策略的基础上,系统描述了发车模式问题的优化模型。根据期望最优的准则,给出了最优最小编成辆数的计算公式,并据此进一步分析了最小编成辆数的性质。由于公式中具体的参数难以确定,论文给出了通过仿真确定最优最小编成辆数的方法,并提出了与确定最优最小编成辆数相关的几个概念。
(6)在分析了欠轴发车有利的条件后,对编组站出发的欠轴货物列车的补轴问题进行了研究,给出了在编组站加挂去向不符合列车编组计划的车组和中途补轴两种利用欠轴列车能力的方法。
(7)通过一个实例,给出了确定最优最小编成辆数的具体步骤,并验证了车流到达规律分时段统计的思想。
论文的研究涵盖了发车模式优化的主要相关内容,以期成为一个相对完整的理论体系,使之能为编组站工作组织改革提供一定的参考,以及铁路行车组织体制的改革起到一定的促进作用。
The great achievement of China in economic development provided the powerful motive force for the development of railway transportation. With the economic progress of China, the contradiction between railway supply and transportation demand has been relieved greatly. The modes used by China are as the following:enlarging the railway network scale, building Passenger Dedicated Line, updating the technical equipment, developing the heavy load transportation, enhancing the velocity of trains etc. Furthermore, for the adaptation to the demand to railway transportation of shipper in the new period, the Railway Department has adopted some effective measures, such as pushing out "Five Schadued" trains, Railway Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train etc. new goods transportation variety, compressing the number of marshalling station, increasing the running proportion of through trains, and accelerating the development of container transportaion and so on, which improved the service quality in goods transportation.
But, the proportion of the goods trains which are reorganized in marshalling station is still the main portion of railway goods transportation in my country. Presently, besides that the railway supply can't meet the transportation demand, it is an outstanding problem that the timeliness of railway goods transportation is not good. Now, the making-up type train-running organization system is still adopted in our country. To enhance the quality of transportation completely, and improve the timeliness of railway goods transportation, only depending on increasing the ability of the railway transportation is not sufficient. We must also reform the train-running organization system of our country. However, the optimization of organization in marshalling station is the key question in the reformation of railway train-running organization.
The research on optimization of departure mode in marshalling station is very important for our country to guide the reformation of train-running organization and enhance the service quality. The thesis takes the theoretical research as the core, references the outcome of the past research and adopts the systematic view, appllies the correlative theories such as transportation organization, optimization theory, mathematical statistics and systematic science etc. to study the relevant parameters and the laws deeply. The contents of the thesis include the following several aspects mainly:
(1) The optimization of departure mode is analyzed systematically. According to the three kinds of constraint when the train is marshaled in marshalling station, the departure modes are divided into three kinds of modes. Furthermore, the question to optimize the departure modes is transformed into how to find the optimal minimum number of cars.
(2)The statistical law about car flow's arrival is analyzed by the method of mathematic statistics. And furthermore, it is pointed out that the statistic analysis of data must be made by time segment, which makes the law about car flow arrival accord better with the actual situation. When the arriving law of car flow changes, on the condition that the sample size is not sufficient, a kind of Bayes estimation method for the arriving law of car flow is given.
(3) In order to measure accurately the change of transportation cost caused by the different departure modes, the comprehensive influence to the operation organization of marshalling station which is caused by the difference of departure mode is analyzed synthetically. It is pointed out how the change of the minimum number of cars to influence the marshalling-departure system and the arrival-disintegration system. What is more, the influence to the departure order and the departure proportionality which is caused by the change of the minimum number of cars is studied by the simulation method.
(4) The process that the cars are assembled, marshaled and sent out is considered as a system. According to the comprehensive analysis to the synthetic influence caused by the difference of departure modes, the method to measure the change of transportation cost which is caused by the difference of departure modes is given. In this calculation process, a proper method to compute the transportation cost is adopted according to the arrival law of car flow and related constraint in the process that the cars are assembled, marshaled and sent out.
(5) On the basis of analysis and reference to the past departure strategy about good trains in the marshalling station, a optimization model about the departure mode is established. And at the same time, a compute formula about the minimum number of cars is given by the optimal criterion of expectation. Moreover, the property of the minimum number of cars is analyzed by this formula. Because it is difficult to determine the parameters in this formula, the thesis gives a method to determine the optimal minimum number of cars by simulation. Besides, some concepts related to determining the optimal minimum number of cars is put forward.
(6) After having analyzed the condition in which the owing-axis departure is favorable, the thesis studies the question that how the owing-axis goods train is attached operation. Furthermore, the thesis gives two kinds of method to use the ability of the owing-axis goods train. The two ways are adding cars which violate the marshalling plan to the owing-axis goods train and attaching operation in the midway station, respectively.
(7) The steps to determine the optimal minimum number of cars is given by an example. And the idea that the statistic analysis of data must be made by time segment is verifed.
The study covers the principal relevant contents as to the optimization of departure mode, in the hope of offer a certain theoretical support and reference for the reformation of train-running organization system, and playing a certain promotion role to the reformation of the railway running-train organization system.
但由于通过编组站改编的货物列车,仍是铁路货物运输的主要部分。目前除了铁路运输供给能力仍不能满足货物运输的需求外,铁路货物运输的时效性差是一个突出的问题。我国目前实行的仍是组织型的行车组织体制,要全面提高我国铁路货物运输的服务质量,改善货物运输的时效性,单靠增加运输能力是不够的,还必须对我国的现有铁路行车组织方式进行改革。而编组站的工作组织优化是铁路行车组织改革的关键所在。
编组站发车模式优化问题的研究,对于指导我国编组站工作组织改革,全面提高货物运输服务质量,有着重要的意义。论文以理论研究为主,并充分借鉴和参考以往的研究成果,采用系统的观点,运用运输组织、最优化理论、数理统计、系统科学等学科的理论,对发车模式优化中的有关参数和规律进行了深入的研究。本文的研究内容主要包括以下几个方面。
(1)对发车模式的优化问题进行了系统分析,根据在编组站编组列车时满轴、正点、不违编这3个基本原则,对发车模式进行了分类,并把发车模式的优化问题转变成为寻找最优的最小编成辆数的问题。
(2)通过数理统计方法分析了车流的到达统计规律,并指出了车流规律拟合过程中,数据的分时段统计特性,使拟合的统计规律更符合客观实际情况;对于车流到达规律发生变化的情况,给出了样本容量不足条件下车流到达规律的贝叶斯估计方法。
(3)为了准确测度发车模式不同产生的运输成本的变化,对发车模式给编组站工作组织产生的影响进行了综合分析,指出了因最小编成辆数的改变在编发系统和到解系统内产生的影响,并通过仿真的方法,研究了最小编成辆数变化对列车出发秩序和出发均衡性的影响。
(4)把编组站车辆的集结和编发过程看作一个系统,根据发车模式对编组站工作组织的综合影响分析,选用适当的指标和运输成本计算方法,根据车流到达规律和车辆集结编发过程以及相关约束,对选择不同发车模式给编组站带来的运输成本的改变进行了测度。
(5)在分析和借鉴已有的关于编组站货物列车发车策略的基础上,系统描述了发车模式问题的优化模型。根据期望最优的准则,给出了最优最小编成辆数的计算公式,并据此进一步分析了最小编成辆数的性质。由于公式中具体的参数难以确定,论文给出了通过仿真确定最优最小编成辆数的方法,并提出了与确定最优最小编成辆数相关的几个概念。
(6)在分析了欠轴发车有利的条件后,对编组站出发的欠轴货物列车的补轴问题进行了研究,给出了在编组站加挂去向不符合列车编组计划的车组和中途补轴两种利用欠轴列车能力的方法。
(7)通过一个实例,给出了确定最优最小编成辆数的具体步骤,并验证了车流到达规律分时段统计的思想。
论文的研究涵盖了发车模式优化的主要相关内容,以期成为一个相对完整的理论体系,使之能为编组站工作组织改革提供一定的参考,以及铁路行车组织体制的改革起到一定的促进作用。
The great achievement of China in economic development provided the powerful motive force for the development of railway transportation. With the economic progress of China, the contradiction between railway supply and transportation demand has been relieved greatly. The modes used by China are as the following:enlarging the railway network scale, building Passenger Dedicated Line, updating the technical equipment, developing the heavy load transportation, enhancing the velocity of trains etc. Furthermore, for the adaptation to the demand to railway transportation of shipper in the new period, the Railway Department has adopted some effective measures, such as pushing out "Five Schadued" trains, Railway Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train etc. new goods transportation variety, compressing the number of marshalling station, increasing the running proportion of through trains, and accelerating the development of container transportaion and so on, which improved the service quality in goods transportation.
But, the proportion of the goods trains which are reorganized in marshalling station is still the main portion of railway goods transportation in my country. Presently, besides that the railway supply can't meet the transportation demand, it is an outstanding problem that the timeliness of railway goods transportation is not good. Now, the making-up type train-running organization system is still adopted in our country. To enhance the quality of transportation completely, and improve the timeliness of railway goods transportation, only depending on increasing the ability of the railway transportation is not sufficient. We must also reform the train-running organization system of our country. However, the optimization of organization in marshalling station is the key question in the reformation of railway train-running organization.
The research on optimization of departure mode in marshalling station is very important for our country to guide the reformation of train-running organization and enhance the service quality. The thesis takes the theoretical research as the core, references the outcome of the past research and adopts the systematic view, appllies the correlative theories such as transportation organization, optimization theory, mathematical statistics and systematic science etc. to study the relevant parameters and the laws deeply. The contents of the thesis include the following several aspects mainly:
(1) The optimization of departure mode is analyzed systematically. According to the three kinds of constraint when the train is marshaled in marshalling station, the departure modes are divided into three kinds of modes. Furthermore, the question to optimize the departure modes is transformed into how to find the optimal minimum number of cars.
(2)The statistical law about car flow's arrival is analyzed by the method of mathematic statistics. And furthermore, it is pointed out that the statistic analysis of data must be made by time segment, which makes the law about car flow arrival accord better with the actual situation. When the arriving law of car flow changes, on the condition that the sample size is not sufficient, a kind of Bayes estimation method for the arriving law of car flow is given.
(3) In order to measure accurately the change of transportation cost caused by the different departure modes, the comprehensive influence to the operation organization of marshalling station which is caused by the difference of departure mode is analyzed synthetically. It is pointed out how the change of the minimum number of cars to influence the marshalling-departure system and the arrival-disintegration system. What is more, the influence to the departure order and the departure proportionality which is caused by the change of the minimum number of cars is studied by the simulation method.
(4) The process that the cars are assembled, marshaled and sent out is considered as a system. According to the comprehensive analysis to the synthetic influence caused by the difference of departure modes, the method to measure the change of transportation cost which is caused by the difference of departure modes is given. In this calculation process, a proper method to compute the transportation cost is adopted according to the arrival law of car flow and related constraint in the process that the cars are assembled, marshaled and sent out.
(5) On the basis of analysis and reference to the past departure strategy about good trains in the marshalling station, a optimization model about the departure mode is established. And at the same time, a compute formula about the minimum number of cars is given by the optimal criterion of expectation. Moreover, the property of the minimum number of cars is analyzed by this formula. Because it is difficult to determine the parameters in this formula, the thesis gives a method to determine the optimal minimum number of cars by simulation. Besides, some concepts related to determining the optimal minimum number of cars is put forward.
(6) After having analyzed the condition in which the owing-axis departure is favorable, the thesis studies the question that how the owing-axis goods train is attached operation. Furthermore, the thesis gives two kinds of method to use the ability of the owing-axis goods train. The two ways are adding cars which violate the marshalling plan to the owing-axis goods train and attaching operation in the midway station, respectively.
(7) The steps to determine the optimal minimum number of cars is given by an example. And the idea that the statistic analysis of data must be made by time segment is verifed.
The study covers the principal relevant contents as to the optimization of departure mode, in the hope of offer a certain theoretical support and reference for the reformation of train-running organization system, and playing a certain promotion role to the reformation of the railway running-train organization system.
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