电网规划方案技术经济评价方法研究
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摘要
随着国民经济和城市建设的发展,电力负荷稳步增长,电网建设的各种压力不断凸现。如何制订科学合理的电网规划,合理安排电网建设,成为目前工作中的重点。
本文结合电网自身的特点,构建了将电网技术指标、经济指标、国民经济评价指标等密切结合的评价指标体系,并且针对建设资金裕度的不同,进一步将电网规划方案技术经济评价细分为建设资金受限和不受限两种不同的建设条件下方案的评价和优选,并利用有约束线性规划模型对其进行仿真,从而形成了评价结果更全面、适用范围更广、通用性更强的体系和方法,为电网规划方案技术经济评价的深入探讨开拓了思路,奠定了基础。
电网建设项目周期长,涉及的因素众多,而系统动力学通过对评价对象的仿真建模,可以全面、动态地考虑与评价对象相关的各种影响因素。因此本文随后根据电网规划方案的特点及其影响,提出了在电网规划方案技术经济评价中应当考虑的各种因素与相应的评价指标,并针对这些因素与其相互之间的因果联系建立了包括技术评价子系统、财务评价子系统、国民经济评价子系统的完整的系统动力学评价模型。
最后将本文所提出的模型应用于某地区的某阶段电网规划项目实例仿真计算,并对仿真结果进行模糊综合评价,得出了较为准确的结果,从而验证了上述电网规划方案模型的有效性。
Economic evaluation is an important component of power network planning program, and a significant measure which can make the decision of power construction project more scientific and democratic, reducing and avoiding mistakes, and enhance economic benefits of the construction project.
Considering the economic evaluation of construction project and integrating the characteristic of power grid, it can construct the evaluation system combing power grid technology indicators, economic indicators, evaluation of the national economy indicators and so on. Because of the difference of margin financing in the construction of power grid program, the advance evaluation of power grid program economy can be further divided into two distinct assessment and optimal choice which are limited construction fund and unlimited construction fund in different construction condition, and then using the constrained linear programming model to simulate. Therefore, the more comprehensive and objective evaluation result, the broader scope of application and the more universal system and method can be formed to establish the basic and exploit the thought for the power network program and economic evaluation of the further research.
The period of power item is long, which involving many factors. But through the simulation modeling of the evaluation objects, the system dynamics can consider and evaluate various factors of the objects comprehensively and dynamic. Additionally, the paper analyzes the factors which have influence on the evaluation of power grid planning and related evaluation indexes. With these factors and the casuality among them, system dynamics evaluation model of power grid planning, made up by technical evaluation subsystem, financial evaluation subsystem and economic evaluation subsystem, is built in the end of this chapter.
At the end of the paper, an example of power grid planning is simulated and comprehensive evaluation of simulation results is made. The results are more accurate and the evaluation conclusion is made and the feasibility of the model is proved.
本文结合电网自身的特点,构建了将电网技术指标、经济指标、国民经济评价指标等密切结合的评价指标体系,并且针对建设资金裕度的不同,进一步将电网规划方案技术经济评价细分为建设资金受限和不受限两种不同的建设条件下方案的评价和优选,并利用有约束线性规划模型对其进行仿真,从而形成了评价结果更全面、适用范围更广、通用性更强的体系和方法,为电网规划方案技术经济评价的深入探讨开拓了思路,奠定了基础。
电网建设项目周期长,涉及的因素众多,而系统动力学通过对评价对象的仿真建模,可以全面、动态地考虑与评价对象相关的各种影响因素。因此本文随后根据电网规划方案的特点及其影响,提出了在电网规划方案技术经济评价中应当考虑的各种因素与相应的评价指标,并针对这些因素与其相互之间的因果联系建立了包括技术评价子系统、财务评价子系统、国民经济评价子系统的完整的系统动力学评价模型。
最后将本文所提出的模型应用于某地区的某阶段电网规划项目实例仿真计算,并对仿真结果进行模糊综合评价,得出了较为准确的结果,从而验证了上述电网规划方案模型的有效性。
Economic evaluation is an important component of power network planning program, and a significant measure which can make the decision of power construction project more scientific and democratic, reducing and avoiding mistakes, and enhance economic benefits of the construction project.
Considering the economic evaluation of construction project and integrating the characteristic of power grid, it can construct the evaluation system combing power grid technology indicators, economic indicators, evaluation of the national economy indicators and so on. Because of the difference of margin financing in the construction of power grid program, the advance evaluation of power grid program economy can be further divided into two distinct assessment and optimal choice which are limited construction fund and unlimited construction fund in different construction condition, and then using the constrained linear programming model to simulate. Therefore, the more comprehensive and objective evaluation result, the broader scope of application and the more universal system and method can be formed to establish the basic and exploit the thought for the power network program and economic evaluation of the further research.
The period of power item is long, which involving many factors. But through the simulation modeling of the evaluation objects, the system dynamics can consider and evaluate various factors of the objects comprehensively and dynamic. Additionally, the paper analyzes the factors which have influence on the evaluation of power grid planning and related evaluation indexes. With these factors and the casuality among them, system dynamics evaluation model of power grid planning, made up by technical evaluation subsystem, financial evaluation subsystem and economic evaluation subsystem, is built in the end of this chapter.
At the end of the paper, an example of power grid planning is simulated and comprehensive evaluation of simulation results is made. The results are more accurate and the evaluation conclusion is made and the feasibility of the model is proved.
引文
[1]刘友强,基于数学规划方法的地区电网建设规模水平评估研究:「硕士学位论文],长沙:湖南大学,2006
[2]罗凤章,电网规划建设项目评估与决策:「硕士学位论文],天津:天津大学,2006
[3]李向阳,电网建设项目经济评价方法与应用研究:「硕士学位论文],长春:吉林大学,2004
[4]贺静,韦钢等.电网规划方案经济评估方法研究[J].华东电力,2004,32(7):421 424
[5]胡安泰,肖峻,罗凤章.经济评估在电网规划中的应用.供用电.2005,22(3):9~11
[6] CALIFORNIA ISO.Transmission Eeonomic Assessment Methodology[M].Mimeo,2004,55(34):65一91.http://www.caiso.eom/.
[7] CALIFORNIA ISO, LONDON Eeonomics International. A proposed Methodology for Evaluating the Economic Benefits of Transmission Expnasions in a Restructured Wholesale Elecrticity Market [J]. Mimeo,2004,42(31):94一132.http://www.eaiso.eom.
[8]郑风雷,张尧,吴复立.基于帕累托改进准则的输电扩展规划[J].电网技术,2005,29(10):40一69.
[9]程浩忠,张焰等.电力系统规划[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008
[10]姜早龙.工程经济学[M].长沙:中南大学出版社,2005
[11]郭刚,城市电网改造工程效益分析与评价:「硕士学位论文],大连:大连理工大学,2005
[12]王泽一,城市电网规划技术经济指标的评价研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2004
[13]陈志莉,电网建设项目后评价理论及应用研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2005
[14]杨柳,电网建设项目社会经济影响评价研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2005
[15]曹阳,电网投资效益评价的研究:「硕士学位论文],杭州:浙江大学,2005
[16]国家电网公司输变电工程可行性研究内容深度规定(试行).北京:国家电网公司,2007
[17]楼晓东,秦杰.在工程设计中学习与运用LCC分析.上海电力,2004.3
[18]李渝,输电网规划方案经济评价方法的研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2007
[19]陶文斌,输电网运营经济性评价系统研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2003
[20]吴疑,张群英.模糊综合评判及其在电网规划中的应用[J].桂林工学院学报2002,22(3)
[21]徐晖,电网改造工程后评价及其模板研究:「工程硕士学位论文],上海:上海交通大学,2007
[22]彭礼红.基于系统动力学的旅游环境承载力研究[D].南京:南京示范大学地理科学学院,2008.
[23]苗丽娜.基于系统动力学的金融生态环境评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学经济学院,2007.
[24]郭亮.产业经济系统结构演进的系统动力学模型研究[D].大连:大连理工大学.2007
[25]赵会茹,王鹤等.电网建设项目投资优化及辅助决策支持系统研究[J].华东电力,2007,35(6):23 25
[26] Stamboulis,Y;Adamides,E.;Malakis,T.,"A system-dynamics study of a resource-based approach to process development strategy"; Engineering Management Conference, 2002.IEMC'02.2002 IEEE International Volume 1,2002,419一424
[27]原国家计委、建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第二版).1994
[28] Klaus Vogstad.Combining system dynamics and experimental economics to analyse the design of Tradable Green Certificates[C].The 38th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Big Island ,USA,2005
[29]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994
[30]王伟.电网投资规划的系统动力学建模与中压配电网络结构优化[D].北京:华北电力大学,2007
[31] Braga A S D,Saraiva J T.A multiyear dynamic approach for transmission expansion planning and long-term marginal costs computation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1631-1639
[32]黄保军,史京楠.电网建设项目经济评价方法研究.电力建设.2003,24(2):45~49
[33]陈章潮,程浩忠.城市电网规划与改造(第二版)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2007
[34]李国庆,董存.电力市场下区域间输电能力的定义和计算[J].电力系统自动化,2001年3期:6-9
[35]蓝毓俊.现代城市电网规划设计与建设改造[M].中国电力出版社,2004
[36] Karen Nan Miu, Hsiao-Dong Chiang.Electric Distribution System Load Capability:Problem Formulation, Solution Algorithm, and Numerical Results[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 15, NO. 1, JANUARY 2000:436~442
[37] S. Satyanarayana, T. Ramana, G. K. Rao.Improving the Maximum Loading by Optimal Conductor Selection of Radial Distribution Systems[J] . Electric Power Components and Systems, Volume 34, Number 7 / July 2006: 747– 757
[38] Khator, S.K. Leung, L.C..Power distribution planning: a review of models and issues. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, Aug 1997 Volume12, Issue3: 1151-1159
[39]邓佑满,蔡乐,赵大溥.提高配电网可恢复供电能力的算法[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(11):19-22
[40]王佳贤.城市配电网经济性评估研究[D].上海:上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程院,2008
[41]郭永基.电力系统可靠性分析[M].清华大学出版社,2003.12
[42]朱海峰,程浩忠,张焰等.电网灵活规划的研究进展[J].电力系统自动化,1999,23(17):38 41
[43]王凯军,肖峻,葛少云等.杭州滨江区10 kV配电网规划中的接线模式与转供能力分析[J].中国电力,2005,38(2) :64~68
[44]千住镇雄.经济工程学基础[M].北京:中国石化出版社,1993.12.
[45]张福伟,肖国泉.基于系统动力学的可持续电力发展模型现代电力,2000,17(2).
[46]万善良.城区变压器合理负载率[J] .电世界,2002,8:11~15
[47]张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法与应用.北京:中国电力出版社,2004
[48]滕乐天,凌平,黄玉等.泰和变电站220kV GIS设备LCC模型和计算.中国设备工程.2005.06
[49]国家电力公司发输电运营部.电力工程技术改造项目经济评价暂行办法(试行).北京:中国电力出版社,2003
[50]原电力部.电网建设项目经济评价暂行办法.1998
[51]财政部.工业企业财务制度.1992
[52]原国家计委、建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第二版).1994
[53]原电力部.供电企业经济效益评估综合指标体系.1998
[54]程浩忠,张焰.电力网络规划的方法与应用[M].上海科学技术出版社,2002
[55]肖先勇.电力技术经济分析原理.北京:中国电力出版社,2005
[2]罗凤章,电网规划建设项目评估与决策:「硕士学位论文],天津:天津大学,2006
[3]李向阳,电网建设项目经济评价方法与应用研究:「硕士学位论文],长春:吉林大学,2004
[4]贺静,韦钢等.电网规划方案经济评估方法研究[J].华东电力,2004,32(7):421 424
[5]胡安泰,肖峻,罗凤章.经济评估在电网规划中的应用.供用电.2005,22(3):9~11
[6] CALIFORNIA ISO.Transmission Eeonomic Assessment Methodology[M].Mimeo,2004,55(34):65一91.http://www.caiso.eom/.
[7] CALIFORNIA ISO, LONDON Eeonomics International. A proposed Methodology for Evaluating the Economic Benefits of Transmission Expnasions in a Restructured Wholesale Elecrticity Market [J]. Mimeo,2004,42(31):94一132.http://www.eaiso.eom.
[8]郑风雷,张尧,吴复立.基于帕累托改进准则的输电扩展规划[J].电网技术,2005,29(10):40一69.
[9]程浩忠,张焰等.电力系统规划[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2008
[10]姜早龙.工程经济学[M].长沙:中南大学出版社,2005
[11]郭刚,城市电网改造工程效益分析与评价:「硕士学位论文],大连:大连理工大学,2005
[12]王泽一,城市电网规划技术经济指标的评价研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2004
[13]陈志莉,电网建设项目后评价理论及应用研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2005
[14]杨柳,电网建设项目社会经济影响评价研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2005
[15]曹阳,电网投资效益评价的研究:「硕士学位论文],杭州:浙江大学,2005
[16]国家电网公司输变电工程可行性研究内容深度规定(试行).北京:国家电网公司,2007
[17]楼晓东,秦杰.在工程设计中学习与运用LCC分析.上海电力,2004.3
[18]李渝,输电网规划方案经济评价方法的研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2007
[19]陶文斌,输电网运营经济性评价系统研究:「硕士学位论文],北京:华北电力大学,2003
[20]吴疑,张群英.模糊综合评判及其在电网规划中的应用[J].桂林工学院学报2002,22(3)
[21]徐晖,电网改造工程后评价及其模板研究:「工程硕士学位论文],上海:上海交通大学,2007
[22]彭礼红.基于系统动力学的旅游环境承载力研究[D].南京:南京示范大学地理科学学院,2008.
[23]苗丽娜.基于系统动力学的金融生态环境评价研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学经济学院,2007.
[24]郭亮.产业经济系统结构演进的系统动力学模型研究[D].大连:大连理工大学.2007
[25]赵会茹,王鹤等.电网建设项目投资优化及辅助决策支持系统研究[J].华东电力,2007,35(6):23 25
[26] Stamboulis,Y;Adamides,E.;Malakis,T.,"A system-dynamics study of a resource-based approach to process development strategy"; Engineering Management Conference, 2002.IEMC'02.2002 IEEE International Volume 1,2002,419一424
[27]原国家计委、建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第二版).1994
[28] Klaus Vogstad.Combining system dynamics and experimental economics to analyse the design of Tradable Green Certificates[C].The 38th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Big Island ,USA,2005
[29]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1994
[30]王伟.电网投资规划的系统动力学建模与中压配电网络结构优化[D].北京:华北电力大学,2007
[31] Braga A S D,Saraiva J T.A multiyear dynamic approach for transmission expansion planning and long-term marginal costs computation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2005,20(3):1631-1639
[32]黄保军,史京楠.电网建设项目经济评价方法研究.电力建设.2003,24(2):45~49
[33]陈章潮,程浩忠.城市电网规划与改造(第二版)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2007
[34]李国庆,董存.电力市场下区域间输电能力的定义和计算[J].电力系统自动化,2001年3期:6-9
[35]蓝毓俊.现代城市电网规划设计与建设改造[M].中国电力出版社,2004
[36] Karen Nan Miu, Hsiao-Dong Chiang.Electric Distribution System Load Capability:Problem Formulation, Solution Algorithm, and Numerical Results[J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY, VOL. 15, NO. 1, JANUARY 2000:436~442
[37] S. Satyanarayana, T. Ramana, G. K. Rao.Improving the Maximum Loading by Optimal Conductor Selection of Radial Distribution Systems[J] . Electric Power Components and Systems, Volume 34, Number 7 / July 2006: 747– 757
[38] Khator, S.K. Leung, L.C..Power distribution planning: a review of models and issues. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, Aug 1997 Volume12, Issue3: 1151-1159
[39]邓佑满,蔡乐,赵大溥.提高配电网可恢复供电能力的算法[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(11):19-22
[40]王佳贤.城市配电网经济性评估研究[D].上海:上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程院,2008
[41]郭永基.电力系统可靠性分析[M].清华大学出版社,2003.12
[42]朱海峰,程浩忠,张焰等.电网灵活规划的研究进展[J].电力系统自动化,1999,23(17):38 41
[43]王凯军,肖峻,葛少云等.杭州滨江区10 kV配电网规划中的接线模式与转供能力分析[J].中国电力,2005,38(2) :64~68
[44]千住镇雄.经济工程学基础[M].北京:中国石化出版社,1993.12.
[45]张福伟,肖国泉.基于系统动力学的可持续电力发展模型现代电力,2000,17(2).
[46]万善良.城区变压器合理负载率[J] .电世界,2002,8:11~15
[47]张文泉.电力技术经济评价理论、方法与应用.北京:中国电力出版社,2004
[48]滕乐天,凌平,黄玉等.泰和变电站220kV GIS设备LCC模型和计算.中国设备工程.2005.06
[49]国家电力公司发输电运营部.电力工程技术改造项目经济评价暂行办法(试行).北京:中国电力出版社,2003
[50]原电力部.电网建设项目经济评价暂行办法.1998
[51]财政部.工业企业财务制度.1992
[52]原国家计委、建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第二版).1994
[53]原电力部.供电企业经济效益评估综合指标体系.1998
[54]程浩忠,张焰.电力网络规划的方法与应用[M].上海科学技术出版社,2002
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