基于石油安全的中国石油期货市场建设
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摘要
石油被称为“现代工业的血液”,是现代经济中的重要战略性资源。石油安全问题对一国经济和社会发展有着直接且深远的影响,是世界各国优先关注的焦点之一。随着我国工业化进程的加快,石油进口逐年增加,对外依赖性不断加大,国际原油价格的变动对我国经济的各方面发展大至国民经济的发展速度、通货膨胀程度以及国际收支平衡,小至人民生活的衣、食、住、行的影响越来越大,我国石油安全面临很大的挑战。因此,在传统的节能、能源替代等措施的基础上,寻找新的方法来维护石油安全,对于保障我国国民经济持续稳定健康发展有着极其重大的意义。
期货市场是现货市场发展的高级形式,是一种发达的信用经济运行方式,是商品经济发展的必然结果。它具有发现价格、套期保值和市场投机的作用,其发展历程就是人们不断的规避各种商品风险的历程。石油期货有利于保证石油供给来源、规避石油价格风险,是维护石油安全的重要战略手段之一。建立和发展中国石油期货市场有利于争取石油定价权,增强企业的国际竞争力,能够提高我国企业应对石油价格风险的能力,增加国家对石油的调控能力,同时也有助于建立和完善我国石油储备体系,对我国石油工业的发展也起了一定的推动作用。
近年来,中国期货市场发展迅速,各种商品期货在经历了二十世纪末的曲折无序发展后逐步步入正轨。2004年8月25日,我国石油期货首个品种:燃料油期货终于在上海期货交易所上市,这也标志着我国的石油期货市场正在一步一步的规范发展。但是石油行业基本上处于中石油、中石化和中海油三家集团的垄断之下,石油定价机制缺乏灵活性,企业进入石油期货市场也存在制度上、观念上的障碍,2004年出现的“中航油事件”曾给我国国有资产带来巨大损失,中国要建立和发展石油期货发展必须有一个总体布局和长远规划。本文对石油期货的市场功能和安全维护作用进行了理论到实践的分析,指出了当前石油期货市场建设过程中面临的问题,最后提出了一个发展的整体框架,包括石油期货市场建设的总体思路和原则、石油市场化改革、石油期货交易所的选择、石油期货合约推出的顺序设计、石油期货的风险管理以及石油期货市场配套法规建设。
Oil, the blood of modern industry, is an important strategic resource in modern economy. Oil security, playing a direct and far-reaching role in the development of economy and society, is a priority which any nation in the world focuses on. As the acceleration of modernization in China, quantity and dependence of oil import increase year by year, the price fluctuation of international crude oil plays a more and more important role in different aspects of our economy ranging from growth rate of national economy、inflation and international balance of payments to people’s clothes、food、housing and transportation, our oil security is facing great challenge. Therefore, it is of great significance to find new ways to the guarantee the sound and rapid development of our national economy besides the traditional means such as energy saving and energy substitution.
Futures market, a necessary advanced development of spot market in the commercial economy, is an operation form of credit economy. Futures possesses three functions: price discovery、hedging and market speculation and its development witnesses people’s steady risk-avoiding. Oil futures, as an important strategic means to maintain oil security, is helpful to guarantee oil supply and avoid the risk of price fluctuation. Construction and development of oil futures market in China is conducive to win oil pricing power、enhance international competitiveness、improve price-risk avoiding ability for the enterprise、perfect the oil reserve system and promote the development of oil industry.
Recently futures market in China enters into a rapid and right development stage through twists and turns. On August 25th 2004, the first oil futures product: fuel oil futures was listed on Shanghai Futures Exchange successfully based on many years preparation, which indicates that oil futures exchange is developing towards a right direction step by step. However under the control of the government, oil industry is basically monopolized by three groups: Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. Flexibility is lacked in oil pricing mechanism, and there are barriers of systems and conceptions for the enterprises to enter the oil futures market. In 2004, the“China Aviation Oil Accident”has causes great loss to our state-owned assets. Therefore there is a long way to go for the development of oil futures market in China. Based on the experience of oil futures market construction home and aboard, this paper provides a construction framework ranging from macroaspects such as general strategy and construction principle to microaspects such as reform in oil market, choice of oil futures exchange, order design of oil futures contract, risk management of oil futures and the attached futures law construction.
期货市场是现货市场发展的高级形式,是一种发达的信用经济运行方式,是商品经济发展的必然结果。它具有发现价格、套期保值和市场投机的作用,其发展历程就是人们不断的规避各种商品风险的历程。石油期货有利于保证石油供给来源、规避石油价格风险,是维护石油安全的重要战略手段之一。建立和发展中国石油期货市场有利于争取石油定价权,增强企业的国际竞争力,能够提高我国企业应对石油价格风险的能力,增加国家对石油的调控能力,同时也有助于建立和完善我国石油储备体系,对我国石油工业的发展也起了一定的推动作用。
近年来,中国期货市场发展迅速,各种商品期货在经历了二十世纪末的曲折无序发展后逐步步入正轨。2004年8月25日,我国石油期货首个品种:燃料油期货终于在上海期货交易所上市,这也标志着我国的石油期货市场正在一步一步的规范发展。但是石油行业基本上处于中石油、中石化和中海油三家集团的垄断之下,石油定价机制缺乏灵活性,企业进入石油期货市场也存在制度上、观念上的障碍,2004年出现的“中航油事件”曾给我国国有资产带来巨大损失,中国要建立和发展石油期货发展必须有一个总体布局和长远规划。本文对石油期货的市场功能和安全维护作用进行了理论到实践的分析,指出了当前石油期货市场建设过程中面临的问题,最后提出了一个发展的整体框架,包括石油期货市场建设的总体思路和原则、石油市场化改革、石油期货交易所的选择、石油期货合约推出的顺序设计、石油期货的风险管理以及石油期货市场配套法规建设。
Oil, the blood of modern industry, is an important strategic resource in modern economy. Oil security, playing a direct and far-reaching role in the development of economy and society, is a priority which any nation in the world focuses on. As the acceleration of modernization in China, quantity and dependence of oil import increase year by year, the price fluctuation of international crude oil plays a more and more important role in different aspects of our economy ranging from growth rate of national economy、inflation and international balance of payments to people’s clothes、food、housing and transportation, our oil security is facing great challenge. Therefore, it is of great significance to find new ways to the guarantee the sound and rapid development of our national economy besides the traditional means such as energy saving and energy substitution.
Futures market, a necessary advanced development of spot market in the commercial economy, is an operation form of credit economy. Futures possesses three functions: price discovery、hedging and market speculation and its development witnesses people’s steady risk-avoiding. Oil futures, as an important strategic means to maintain oil security, is helpful to guarantee oil supply and avoid the risk of price fluctuation. Construction and development of oil futures market in China is conducive to win oil pricing power、enhance international competitiveness、improve price-risk avoiding ability for the enterprise、perfect the oil reserve system and promote the development of oil industry.
Recently futures market in China enters into a rapid and right development stage through twists and turns. On August 25th 2004, the first oil futures product: fuel oil futures was listed on Shanghai Futures Exchange successfully based on many years preparation, which indicates that oil futures exchange is developing towards a right direction step by step. However under the control of the government, oil industry is basically monopolized by three groups: Sinopec, CNPC and CNOOC. Flexibility is lacked in oil pricing mechanism, and there are barriers of systems and conceptions for the enterprises to enter the oil futures market. In 2004, the“China Aviation Oil Accident”has causes great loss to our state-owned assets. Therefore there is a long way to go for the development of oil futures market in China. Based on the experience of oil futures market construction home and aboard, this paper provides a construction framework ranging from macroaspects such as general strategy and construction principle to microaspects such as reform in oil market, choice of oil futures exchange, order design of oil futures contract, risk management of oil futures and the attached futures law construction.
引文
①江泽民.对中国能源问题的思考[J],上海交通大学学报,2008,(3):8-10
①赫尔.期权、期货和其他衍生产品[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2001:1-5
①IEA. Oil Supply Security - Emergency Response of IEA Countries 2007[M]. IEA Press 2007:15-25
①王欣,李仕婷.中国石油安全战略分析[J],未来与发展, 2007, (4): 23-25.
①严绪朝、杨景民.为二十一世纪中国加油(第一版)[M]:企业管理出版社, 1999:40-45.
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①赫尔.期权、期货和其他衍生产品[M].北京:清华大学出版社, 2001:1-5
①IEA. Oil Supply Security - Emergency Response of IEA Countries 2007[M]. IEA Press 2007:15-25
①王欣,李仕婷.中国石油安全战略分析[J],未来与发展, 2007, (4): 23-25.
①严绪朝、杨景民.为二十一世纪中国加油(第一版)[M]:企业管理出版社, 1999:40-45.
[1] Hotelling. The economics of exhaustible resources [J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1931, 39(2):137-175.
[2] Jongeson.Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility [J].Journal of Finance,1967,(4),22-82.
[3] Willrich.The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing[J].Journal of Economic Theory 1976,(13),341-360.
[4] Salant.Testing for Unit Root in Autoregressive Moving Average Models of Unknown Order[J].Biometrika,1984,(7):599-607.
[5] Arrow, Chang. Optimal Pricing, Use and Exploration of Uncertain Natural Resource Stocks[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1982,9(1):1-10.
[6] Danielsen. Futures Volumes Soars to Record Highs[J].Futures Industry Magazine, 1982, 21(1):10-18.
[7] Roternberg and Woodford, Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity[J]. NBER Working Papers, 1996,(5):98-102.
[8] Davis, Haltiwanger. Secoral Job Creation and Destruction Response to Oil Price Changes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2001,(7):78-99.
[9] IEA. World Energy Outlook 2002[OL].Http:// www iea.org
[10] Eldin,Hamel ,Brennand. Implementing a stochastic model for oil future prices[J].Energy Economics, 2003, (25):215-238.
[11]潘家铮.中国能源问题和出路[J],自然杂志,1997,(5):249-254.
[12]于民.从国际经验看我国必须坚持石油供需自给有余的基本国策[J],中国经济问题,1993,(6):42-53.
[13]翟光明.我国油气资源和油气发展前景[J],勘探家,1996,(ll):1-5.
[14]王礼茂.中国资源安全战略--以石油为例[J],资源科学,2002,(l):5-10.
[15]陈淮.石油战略要重点研究国际市场[J],价格理论与实践,2004,(9):16-17.
[16]舒先林,阎高程,石油:中国能源安全的核心与国际战略[J],石油化工技术经济,2004,(3):12-20.
[17]冀星,都小林,钱家麟.我国石油安全战略探讨[J],中国能源,2004,(l):16-22.
[18]张昌兵,王卉.浅析中国获取海外石油的困境与对策[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2005,(4):13-19.
[19] Marshall.principles of Economics[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1890,77-80.
[20] Elliot.Wave of the Stock[M].Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1934, 56-78.
[21] Keynes. The general theory of employment, interest rate and money[M]. London :Macmillan Press, 1946,6:34-56.
[22] Markowitz. Portfolio selection[J], Journal of Finance, 1952,(7):54-87.
[23] Tesler. Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat[J], Journal of Political Economy, 1958,(7):23-54.
[24] Paul Cootner.Stock Prices:Random Systematic Changes[J], Industrial Magagement Review,1962,(6):56-67.
[25] Samulson.The Behavior of Stock Market Prices[J],Journal of Business,1995,(38):57-77.
[26] Steidlmayer. Time Series Analysis[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1984: 54-78.
[27] Cabedo, Moya. Estimating oil price Value at Risk using the historical simulation approach[J], Energy Economics, 1974, (25):239-253.
[28] Michael Ye, John Zyren, Joanne Shore. Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels[EB/OL]. http://www.eia.doe.gov/analysis/2001 and116.htm1
[29]Namit Sharma. Forecasting oil price volatility[EB/OL]. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/available/etd-5398-184344/unrestricted/etd.pdf
[30]周北.上海与新加坡燃料油相关性分析[J].中国石油石化,2004, (2):18-20.
[31]吴守祥.上海燃油期货经济价值的实证分析[J].中国能源,2005,(l):21-24.
[32]曹宇.上海燃料油市场与纽约、新加坡油市的关系[EB/OL]. [2005-6-8]. http://www.shqhw.com/news/detailnewsb.asp?infoNo=15854
[33]高辉.中国上海燃料油期货定价模型研究[J].中国石油和化工,2006,(9):12-15.
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