区域开发对滨海环境的影响研究
|
摘要
区域开发活动(特别是大面积的开发活动)会带来重大的环境影响,因此需要对区域开发活动对各环境要素的综合影响进行全面的研究。本文在大量资料收集和现场监测基础上,对黄岛区陆域和近岸海域的环境(水体、大气、噪声、固体废物等)现状进行了调查和评价,采用数学模型定量研究污水集中排放和石油化工基地建设对大气环境、近岸水环境等产生的叠加影响,并计算了排污海域的环境容量。另外,对研究区内石油化工区潜在的火灾爆炸、化学品泄漏、海上溢油进行尝试性的环境风险评估,取得了一些新的认识和结论:
(1)通过环境质量现状和污染源调查发现,研究区的声环境质量较好,一般固体废物和危险废物分别有合理的去向,预测2010年SO_2排放量为2.034×10~4t,烟尘排放量为5455t,区内非甲烷总烃无组织排放增加量约为3000t。主要的环境问题是区域开发活动对大气环境和近岸海域的环境影响。
(2)根据近海水质预测,2010年废水排放总量约为5534.5×10~4 t,COD_(Cr)排放量为2560t,氨氮排放量为580t,污染物排放量远小于COD环境容量14387t/a。镰湾河水质净化厂排污口移至鹿角湾后,COD、氨氮、石油类浓度均能够满足鹿角湾海域的水质功能要求,对金沙滩、银沙滩以及海水养殖区水质不会产生明显影响。但是,不能达到规划的总量控制目标。
(3)大炼油项目年排放SO_25500t,非甲烷总烃2235t,是目前区内最大的新增污染源。多源叠加预测表明,该项目排出的SO_2对各敏感点的年平均浓度增加值均未超过标准限值的3.13%;无组织排放的非甲烷总烃对各敏感点年平均浓度增加值范围为0.0015～0.0264mg/m~3。海岸线熏烟型污染预测可知,发生熏烟时,一般是刮东南风,所以大炼油项目海岸线熏烟型污染对厂区南面的居民区没有明显的影响。
(4)风险评估结果表明:黄岛油库的储油罐如发生爆炸,青岛边防教导大队将会受到C级热辐射影响;溢油事故对北大桥主塔的潜在风险最大,同时将对海洋环境造成严重危害。当蒸发速度为7.38kg/s时,在微风和F稳定度气象条件下丽东化工苯泄漏造成的危害最大,超出居民区最高允许浓度限值的范围达1870m。
Regional development will result in the adverse effect for environment, and the contradictions between the environment and regional economic activity has become increasingly obvious. Therefore, the research from a macroscopic level for the comprehensive effects of regional development on the environment is needed urgently. On the basis of substantive facts collecting and in situ monitoring, the environmental quality status of terrestrial and coastal areas of Huangdao Region was investigated. The comprehensive impacts of sewage centralism discharge on the quality of coastal water and the construction of petrochemical base on the quality of atmosphere were simulated, respectively. The environmental capacity of coastal area for receiving wastewater was also calculated. In addition, the potential risk of fire and explosion, chemical leak, and marine oil spill in Huangdao Region were studied in detail. Some new understandings and results on this study were as followed.
(1) The investigation for environmental quality status and pollution sources indicates that the noise environmental is in good quality, and the harm of the General solid waste and hazardous waste on environmental quality is insignificant. In 2010, the emissions of SO_2, smoke dust, and the non-methane total hydrocarbon is forecasted to reach about 20340 t, 5455 t, and 3000 t, respectively. Therefore, the adverse influence of regional development on the quality of atmosphere and coastal water is severe.
(2) In 2010, the amount of wastewater is forecasted to reach about 5.5345×10~7m~3, containing 2560 t COD_(cr) and 580 t ammonia nitrogen. The discharge amount of COD_(cr) is less than the calculated environmental capacity (14387 t) of coastal water for receiving wastewater. After the outlet of Lianwanhe sewage Treatment Plant was relocated to Lujiao Bay, the concentrations of COD, ammonia nitrogen, and oil are also within the required standard, respectively. The effects of wastewater discharge on the quality of the environmental sensitive point of the golden sand beach, the silver sand beach, and the seawater aquaculture area are insignificant, but the discharge amount of pollutants will surpass the target of total pollutant amount.
(3) The refinery project is the biggest additional source of pollution, and its discharge amount of SO_2, and non-methane total hydrocarbon, in 2010, will be 5500 t and 2235 t, respectively. The values of added concentration of SO_2 for all the environmental sensitive points, in the presence of this project, will comprise less 3.13% of the require standard. The increased concentration of non-methane total hydrocarbon from fugitive emission will be in the range of 0.0015-0.0264 mg/m~3. The simulation of fumigation pollution indicate that the dominant wind direction is southeast wind when fumigation pollution happening. Therefore, the effect of fumigation pollution from this project on the residential area existing in south is negligible.
(4) The results of environmental risk assessment indicate that the Border Defense Brigade of Qindao will receive C level heat radiation if explosion of Huangdao Tank farm happens; the potential impact of oil spill on the North Bridge is the most significant, and the quality of marine environment will be deteriorated seriously; Under conditions of rate Evaporation 7.38 kg/s, gentle breeze, and F level atmospheric stability, Benzene Leakage from tanks of Lidong Corporation on environment is of the most severe influence, and will result in 1870 m radius scope surpassing the maximum acceptable concentration of residential area.
(1)通过环境质量现状和污染源调查发现,研究区的声环境质量较好,一般固体废物和危险废物分别有合理的去向,预测2010年SO_2排放量为2.034×10~4t,烟尘排放量为5455t,区内非甲烷总烃无组织排放增加量约为3000t。主要的环境问题是区域开发活动对大气环境和近岸海域的环境影响。
(2)根据近海水质预测,2010年废水排放总量约为5534.5×10~4 t,COD_(Cr)排放量为2560t,氨氮排放量为580t,污染物排放量远小于COD环境容量14387t/a。镰湾河水质净化厂排污口移至鹿角湾后,COD、氨氮、石油类浓度均能够满足鹿角湾海域的水质功能要求,对金沙滩、银沙滩以及海水养殖区水质不会产生明显影响。但是,不能达到规划的总量控制目标。
(3)大炼油项目年排放SO_25500t,非甲烷总烃2235t,是目前区内最大的新增污染源。多源叠加预测表明,该项目排出的SO_2对各敏感点的年平均浓度增加值均未超过标准限值的3.13%;无组织排放的非甲烷总烃对各敏感点年平均浓度增加值范围为0.0015～0.0264mg/m~3。海岸线熏烟型污染预测可知,发生熏烟时,一般是刮东南风,所以大炼油项目海岸线熏烟型污染对厂区南面的居民区没有明显的影响。
(4)风险评估结果表明:黄岛油库的储油罐如发生爆炸,青岛边防教导大队将会受到C级热辐射影响;溢油事故对北大桥主塔的潜在风险最大,同时将对海洋环境造成严重危害。当蒸发速度为7.38kg/s时,在微风和F稳定度气象条件下丽东化工苯泄漏造成的危害最大,超出居民区最高允许浓度限值的范围达1870m。
Regional development will result in the adverse effect for environment, and the contradictions between the environment and regional economic activity has become increasingly obvious. Therefore, the research from a macroscopic level for the comprehensive effects of regional development on the environment is needed urgently. On the basis of substantive facts collecting and in situ monitoring, the environmental quality status of terrestrial and coastal areas of Huangdao Region was investigated. The comprehensive impacts of sewage centralism discharge on the quality of coastal water and the construction of petrochemical base on the quality of atmosphere were simulated, respectively. The environmental capacity of coastal area for receiving wastewater was also calculated. In addition, the potential risk of fire and explosion, chemical leak, and marine oil spill in Huangdao Region were studied in detail. Some new understandings and results on this study were as followed.
(1) The investigation for environmental quality status and pollution sources indicates that the noise environmental is in good quality, and the harm of the General solid waste and hazardous waste on environmental quality is insignificant. In 2010, the emissions of SO_2, smoke dust, and the non-methane total hydrocarbon is forecasted to reach about 20340 t, 5455 t, and 3000 t, respectively. Therefore, the adverse influence of regional development on the quality of atmosphere and coastal water is severe.
(2) In 2010, the amount of wastewater is forecasted to reach about 5.5345×10~7m~3, containing 2560 t COD_(cr) and 580 t ammonia nitrogen. The discharge amount of COD_(cr) is less than the calculated environmental capacity (14387 t) of coastal water for receiving wastewater. After the outlet of Lianwanhe sewage Treatment Plant was relocated to Lujiao Bay, the concentrations of COD, ammonia nitrogen, and oil are also within the required standard, respectively. The effects of wastewater discharge on the quality of the environmental sensitive point of the golden sand beach, the silver sand beach, and the seawater aquaculture area are insignificant, but the discharge amount of pollutants will surpass the target of total pollutant amount.
(3) The refinery project is the biggest additional source of pollution, and its discharge amount of SO_2, and non-methane total hydrocarbon, in 2010, will be 5500 t and 2235 t, respectively. The values of added concentration of SO_2 for all the environmental sensitive points, in the presence of this project, will comprise less 3.13% of the require standard. The increased concentration of non-methane total hydrocarbon from fugitive emission will be in the range of 0.0015-0.0264 mg/m~3. The simulation of fumigation pollution indicate that the dominant wind direction is southeast wind when fumigation pollution happening. Therefore, the effect of fumigation pollution from this project on the residential area existing in south is negligible.
(4) The results of environmental risk assessment indicate that the Border Defense Brigade of Qindao will receive C level heat radiation if explosion of Huangdao Tank farm happens; the potential impact of oil spill on the North Bridge is the most significant, and the quality of marine environment will be deteriorated seriously; Under conditions of rate Evaporation 7.38 kg/s, gentle breeze, and F level atmospheric stability, Benzene Leakage from tanks of Lidong Corporation on environment is of the most severe influence, and will result in 1870 m radius scope surpassing the maximum acceptable concentration of residential area.
引文
安兴琴,陈玉春,吕世华.兰州市冬季SO2大气环境容量研究.高原气象,2004,23(1):110-115.
鲍仙华,沈虹.区域环评中大气环境容量计算及总量控制探讨.能源研究与信息,2004,2(20):63-67.
北京飞燕石化环保科技发展有限公司,黄岛国家石油储备基地环境影响报告书,2005.
北京飞燕石化环保科技发展有限公司,青岛大炼油工程环境影响报告书,2007.
蔡旭晖,康凌,陈家宜等.福建惠安沿海大气扩散特性的数值分析与模拟.气候与环境研究,2005,10(1):63-71.
陈宝智.危险源辨识控制及评价.成都:四川科学技术出版社,1996.
陈慈美,林月玲,陈于望等.厦门西海域磷的生物地球化学行为和环境容量.海洋学报,1993,15(3):43-48.
杜庆民,张文具,王同健等.城市环境与城市生态,2000,13(3):17-19.
范绍佳,鲍若峪,罗小芬等.广东沿海地区大气稳定度及其分类探讨.中山大学学报(自然科学版),1997,36(1):79-83.
范绍佳,林文实,苏文雄等.理查逊数Ri在沿海近地层大气稳定度分类中的应用.热带气象学报,1999,15(4):370-375.
格丽玛,冷中笑,何清等.大气中二氧化硫的灰色预测.云南地理环境研究,2006,18(4):27-30.
国家环境保护总局环境工程评估中心.环境影响评价技术方法.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2006.
侯永斌.攀枝花市大气环境容量及总量控制研究.西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文,2006.
胡二邦,张茂栓,王守恕等.某滨海核电厂址大气弥散试验研究.中国核科技报告,1998:35.
蒋维楣,王彦昌,钟世远.海岸地区边界层风及其输送扩散特性的观测研究.海洋与湖沼,1991,22.140-147.
季荣,陈国华.流-风-洪共存下溢油漂移的实验室模拟.青岛海洋大学学报:自然科学版,1996,26(3):353-360.
金腊华,邓家泉,吴小明.环境评价方法与实践.北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
李韧,程水源,郭秀锐等.唐山市区大气环境容量研究.安全与环境学报,2005,5(3):46-50.
李树文,史建武,周继红.近地面大气污染模拟模型的建立与应用研究.环境科学与技术, 2007,30(2):29-32.
刘志强,陈纪玲.中国大气环境质量现状及趋势分析.电力环境保护,2007,23(1):23-27.
刘春莉,李尚科.大气污染物最大落地浓度计算方法的比较.四川环境,2006,25(6):57-59.
娄安刚,奚盘根,黄祖珂等.海面溢油轨迹的分析与预报.青岛海洋大学学(自然科学版),1994,24(4):477-484.
娄安刚,吴德星等.三维海洋溢油预测模型的建立.青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2001,31(4):473-479.
罗艾民,魏利军.有毒重气泄漏安全泄漏距离数值方法.中国安全科学学报,2005,15(8):98-100.
牛志广.近岸海域水环境容量的研究.天津大学博士论文,2004.
钱新明,刘振翼.液化石油气瓶站气体泄漏爆炸危险性研究.中国安全科学学报,2005,15(9):73-77.
秦艳.大区域大气总量控制模式的影响因素及其改进性研究.中国纺织大学学报,1999,25(5):9-12.
青岛市政府,黄岛区污染物总量控制削减目标责任书(2006-2010),2005.
任建国,鲁顺清.气体扩散数学模型在安全评价方面的应用.中国安全科学学报,2006,16(3):12-16.
沈明球,房建孟.宁波石浦港的环境质量现状及环境容量的初步研究.海洋通报,1996,15(6):51-59.
孙从军,张明旭,程曦等.上海市大气污染物排放现状评价、预测及对策研究.安全与环境工程,2005,12(4):33-37.
山东省环境科学设计研究院第一研所,青岛大炼油黄岛油库配套改造工程环境影响报告书.2006.
徐瑞祥,朱云海,周生路.城市开发区大气环境影响评价研究.以扬州市经济技术开发区为例.长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(3):248-253.彭应登,王华东.论区域环境规划与区域开发环境影响评价在区域开发环境管理中的作用和
地位.化工环保,1995,15(2):107-110.
王卫国,蒋维楣,余兴.深圳地区海岸复杂地形下大气输送与扩散模拟.环境科学学报,1998,18(1):45-50.
王文和,於孝春,张国枢等.火灾爆炸危险指数法在催化裂解装置安全评价中的应用.炼油 技术与工程,2006,36(10):54-58.
吴宗之,高进东,魏利军.危险评价方法及其应用.北京:冶金工业出版社,2001.
徐大海,李宗恺.城市大气污染物排放总量控制中多源模拟法与国家标准GB/T3840-91中A-P值方法的关系.气象科学,1993,13(2):146-154.
袁业立等.全动力油膜运动数值模式.物理海洋数值计算,郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1992:429-473.
杨庆霄等.海上溢油溶解过程的研究.海洋学报,1994,16(3):51-56.
杨庆霄等.海上溢油在破碎波作用下乳化作用.海洋环境科学,1997,16(2):3-8.
殷效彩,李悦,杨永亮.特殊区域的大气环境影响评价-以某沿海地区拟建水泥厂为例.青岛大学学报,2002,15(1):58-66.
张存智,韩康,张砚峰等.大连湾污染排放总量控制研究-海湾纳污能力计算模型.海洋环境科学,1998,17(3):1-5.
张学庆.胶州湾三维环境动力学数值模拟及环境容量研究.中国海洋大学硕士论文,2003.
张存智,窦振兴等.三维溢油动态预报模式.海洋环境科学,1997,16(1):22-29.
张江华,赵来军,吴勤曼.危险化学品泄漏扩散研究探讨.中国公共安全(学术版),2007,3(1):35-37.
赵文谦,武周虎.海面溢油预报中风过程的模拟.水利水运科学研究,1990,2:167-175.
赵幽竹.临汾市大气环境容量预测研究.山西化工,2007,27(3):68-71.
郑贤斌,李自力.DOW火灾爆炸指数评价法在油库中的应用.油气储运,2003,22(5):49-52.
周家红,许开立.爆炸事故后果评价方法.工业安全与环保,2006,32(3):52-53.
俎铁林,魏生生,林学范.海岸线熏烟扩散模式.应用气象学报,1999,10(3):307-313.
中国海洋大学,青岛经济技术开发区镰湾河水质净化厂建设项目环境影响补充报告(排污口方案论证),2002.
中国石油天然气华东勘察设计研究院,青岛丽东化工中外合资芳烃工程,2007.
Arystanbekova N Kh.Application of Oaussian plume models for air pollution simulation at instantaneous emissions.Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2004,67:451-458.
Bley D,keplen S.The strengths and limitation of PSA:Where we stand.Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1992,38(1-2):3-26.
Bornstein R,Klotz S et al.Application of linked three-dimensional PBL and dispersion moels to New York city.NATO proc 15~(th) meeting on air pollution modeling and its application,1986:543.
Cekirge H M.Use of three generations of oil spill models during the Gulf War Oil Spills.Proceedings of the Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program(AMOP) Technical Seminar,Edmonton,Alberta,Canada,1992:93-105.
Cdrirge H M,Koch M.State-of-the Art techniques in oil spill modelling.Proceeding of Oil Spill Conference,1997:67-72.
Duka G G,Goryacheva N V,Romanchuk.Investigation of natural water self-purification capacity under simulated gonditions.Water resources,1996,23(6):668-672.
Elliott A J.Shear diffusion and the spreading of oil slicks.Marine pollution Bulletin,1986,17:308-313.
Elliott A J,Jones B.Rapid response shallow water modeling:the COMPASS system.J.N.S.1996,20(4).
French D P et al.Validation and use of spill impact modeling for impact assessment.1999Proceeding of Oil Spill Conference.
Fumio Horiguchi.Fate of oil spill in the Persian Gulf.Pollution,1991,26(4):39-62.
Fay J A.Physical processes in the spread of oil on a water surface.Proceedings of Joint Conference on Prevention and Control of Oil Spills,American Petroleum Institute,1971:463-468.
Han M W,Chang K I,Park Y C.Distribution and hydrodynamic model of the Keumdong oil spill in Kwangyang Bay,Korea,Environment International,2001,26(7-8):457-463.
Hanna S R,Chang J C,Strimaitis D G Hazardous gas model evaluation with field observations.Atmospheric Environment.Part A.General Topics,1993,27(15):2265-2285.
Holmes N S,Morawska L.A review of dispersion modeling and its application to the dispersion of particles:An overview of different dispersion models available.Atmospheric Environment,2006.40:5902-5928.
Huang J C.A review of the state-of-the-art of oil spill fate/behavior models.In:Proceddings of the 1983 Oil Spill Conference,Washington DC,1983:313-322.
Kouchi A,Ohba R,Shao Y P.Gas diffusion in a convection layer near a coastal region.Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1999,81:171-180.
Jay S,Jones C,Slinn P et al.Environmental impact assessment:Retrospect and prospect.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2007,27:287-300.
Jiang W M,Wu X M.A linked three-dimensinal PBL and dispersion model in coastal regions. Bound-Layer Meteorology,1990,53(1-2):43-62.
Ku J-Y,Rao S T.Numerical simulation of air pollution in urban areas:Model development.Atmospheric Environment,1987,21(1):201-202.
Lehr W J et al.A new technique to estimate initial spill size using a modified Fay-type spreading formula.Marine Pollution Bulletin,1984,15:326-329.
Liu Congqing.Strategic management of environmental and soci-economic issue.Guizhou Science and Technology Publishing House,2003.
Luhar A,Sawford B L.An examination of existing shoreline fumigation models and formulation of an improved model.Atmospheric Environment,1995,30:609-620.
Lyons W A,Cole H S.Fumigation and plume trapping on the shores of Lake Michigan during stable onshore flow,Journal of Applied Meteorology,1973,12(3):494-510.
Mackay D,Paterson S,and Trudel K.A mathematical model of oil spill behavior,Report No.EE-7,Fisheries and Environment,Environmental Protection Service,Canada,1980.
Morea G J,Goodin W R,Seinfeld J H.Development of a second-generation mathematical model for urban air pollution I.model formulation.Atmospheric Environment,1982,16(4):619-620.
Mirsa P K.Dispersion from tall stacks into a shoreline environment.Atmospheric Environment,1980,14:396-400.
Nusseyc.Research to improve the quality of hazard and risk assessment for major chemical hazard.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,1994,7(2):175-196.
Proctor R,Elliott A J,Dale A C et al.Forecast and hindcast simulations of the Bract Oil Spill.Marine Pollution Bulletin.1994,28(4):219-229.
Procter R,Elliott A J.Modelling tides and surface draft in the Arabian Gulf-application to the Gulf oil spill.Continental Shelf Research,1994,14(5):531-545.
Segal M,Pielke P A,Arritt R W et al.Application of a mesoscale atmospheric dispersion modeling system to the estimation of SO_2 concentrations from jajor elevated sources in southern florida.Atmospheric Environment,1988,22(7):1319-1334.
Spaulding M L.A state of the art review of oil spill trajectory and fate modeling.Oil and Chemical Pollution,1988,4:39-55.
Sugioka S,Kojima T.Anumreical simulation of an oil spill in Tokyo Bay.Spill Science and Technology,Bulletin,1999,5(1):51-61.
Venkatesan R,Mathiyarasu R,Somayaji K M.A study of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides at a coastal site using a modified Gaussian model and a mesoscale sea breeze model.Atmospheric Environment,2002,36:2933-2942.
Venkatesh S.Models simulations of the draft and spread of the Exxon Valdez oil spill.Atmosphere-ocean,1990,28:90-105.
Ye D Z,Ni C Z,Zhou Z C et al.Bacterial kinetics and environmental capacity in the wcstern xiamen Harbour.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,1995,14(2):247-259.
鲍仙华,沈虹.区域环评中大气环境容量计算及总量控制探讨.能源研究与信息,2004,2(20):63-67.
北京飞燕石化环保科技发展有限公司,黄岛国家石油储备基地环境影响报告书,2005.
北京飞燕石化环保科技发展有限公司,青岛大炼油工程环境影响报告书,2007.
蔡旭晖,康凌,陈家宜等.福建惠安沿海大气扩散特性的数值分析与模拟.气候与环境研究,2005,10(1):63-71.
陈宝智.危险源辨识控制及评价.成都:四川科学技术出版社,1996.
陈慈美,林月玲,陈于望等.厦门西海域磷的生物地球化学行为和环境容量.海洋学报,1993,15(3):43-48.
杜庆民,张文具,王同健等.城市环境与城市生态,2000,13(3):17-19.
范绍佳,鲍若峪,罗小芬等.广东沿海地区大气稳定度及其分类探讨.中山大学学报(自然科学版),1997,36(1):79-83.
范绍佳,林文实,苏文雄等.理查逊数Ri在沿海近地层大气稳定度分类中的应用.热带气象学报,1999,15(4):370-375.
格丽玛,冷中笑,何清等.大气中二氧化硫的灰色预测.云南地理环境研究,2006,18(4):27-30.
国家环境保护总局环境工程评估中心.环境影响评价技术方法.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2006.
侯永斌.攀枝花市大气环境容量及总量控制研究.西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文,2006.
胡二邦,张茂栓,王守恕等.某滨海核电厂址大气弥散试验研究.中国核科技报告,1998:35.
蒋维楣,王彦昌,钟世远.海岸地区边界层风及其输送扩散特性的观测研究.海洋与湖沼,1991,22.140-147.
季荣,陈国华.流-风-洪共存下溢油漂移的实验室模拟.青岛海洋大学学报:自然科学版,1996,26(3):353-360.
金腊华,邓家泉,吴小明.环境评价方法与实践.北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
李韧,程水源,郭秀锐等.唐山市区大气环境容量研究.安全与环境学报,2005,5(3):46-50.
李树文,史建武,周继红.近地面大气污染模拟模型的建立与应用研究.环境科学与技术, 2007,30(2):29-32.
刘志强,陈纪玲.中国大气环境质量现状及趋势分析.电力环境保护,2007,23(1):23-27.
刘春莉,李尚科.大气污染物最大落地浓度计算方法的比较.四川环境,2006,25(6):57-59.
娄安刚,奚盘根,黄祖珂等.海面溢油轨迹的分析与预报.青岛海洋大学学(自然科学版),1994,24(4):477-484.
娄安刚,吴德星等.三维海洋溢油预测模型的建立.青岛海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2001,31(4):473-479.
罗艾民,魏利军.有毒重气泄漏安全泄漏距离数值方法.中国安全科学学报,2005,15(8):98-100.
牛志广.近岸海域水环境容量的研究.天津大学博士论文,2004.
钱新明,刘振翼.液化石油气瓶站气体泄漏爆炸危险性研究.中国安全科学学报,2005,15(9):73-77.
秦艳.大区域大气总量控制模式的影响因素及其改进性研究.中国纺织大学学报,1999,25(5):9-12.
青岛市政府,黄岛区污染物总量控制削减目标责任书(2006-2010),2005.
任建国,鲁顺清.气体扩散数学模型在安全评价方面的应用.中国安全科学学报,2006,16(3):12-16.
沈明球,房建孟.宁波石浦港的环境质量现状及环境容量的初步研究.海洋通报,1996,15(6):51-59.
孙从军,张明旭,程曦等.上海市大气污染物排放现状评价、预测及对策研究.安全与环境工程,2005,12(4):33-37.
山东省环境科学设计研究院第一研所,青岛大炼油黄岛油库配套改造工程环境影响报告书.2006.
徐瑞祥,朱云海,周生路.城市开发区大气环境影响评价研究.以扬州市经济技术开发区为例.长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(3):248-253.彭应登,王华东.论区域环境规划与区域开发环境影响评价在区域开发环境管理中的作用和
地位.化工环保,1995,15(2):107-110.
王卫国,蒋维楣,余兴.深圳地区海岸复杂地形下大气输送与扩散模拟.环境科学学报,1998,18(1):45-50.
王文和,於孝春,张国枢等.火灾爆炸危险指数法在催化裂解装置安全评价中的应用.炼油 技术与工程,2006,36(10):54-58.
吴宗之,高进东,魏利军.危险评价方法及其应用.北京:冶金工业出版社,2001.
徐大海,李宗恺.城市大气污染物排放总量控制中多源模拟法与国家标准GB/T3840-91中A-P值方法的关系.气象科学,1993,13(2):146-154.
袁业立等.全动力油膜运动数值模式.物理海洋数值计算,郑州:河南科学技术出版社,1992:429-473.
杨庆霄等.海上溢油溶解过程的研究.海洋学报,1994,16(3):51-56.
杨庆霄等.海上溢油在破碎波作用下乳化作用.海洋环境科学,1997,16(2):3-8.
殷效彩,李悦,杨永亮.特殊区域的大气环境影响评价-以某沿海地区拟建水泥厂为例.青岛大学学报,2002,15(1):58-66.
张存智,韩康,张砚峰等.大连湾污染排放总量控制研究-海湾纳污能力计算模型.海洋环境科学,1998,17(3):1-5.
张学庆.胶州湾三维环境动力学数值模拟及环境容量研究.中国海洋大学硕士论文,2003.
张存智,窦振兴等.三维溢油动态预报模式.海洋环境科学,1997,16(1):22-29.
张江华,赵来军,吴勤曼.危险化学品泄漏扩散研究探讨.中国公共安全(学术版),2007,3(1):35-37.
赵文谦,武周虎.海面溢油预报中风过程的模拟.水利水运科学研究,1990,2:167-175.
赵幽竹.临汾市大气环境容量预测研究.山西化工,2007,27(3):68-71.
郑贤斌,李自力.DOW火灾爆炸指数评价法在油库中的应用.油气储运,2003,22(5):49-52.
周家红,许开立.爆炸事故后果评价方法.工业安全与环保,2006,32(3):52-53.
俎铁林,魏生生,林学范.海岸线熏烟扩散模式.应用气象学报,1999,10(3):307-313.
中国海洋大学,青岛经济技术开发区镰湾河水质净化厂建设项目环境影响补充报告(排污口方案论证),2002.
中国石油天然气华东勘察设计研究院,青岛丽东化工中外合资芳烃工程,2007.
Arystanbekova N Kh.Application of Oaussian plume models for air pollution simulation at instantaneous emissions.Mathematics and Computers in Simulation,2004,67:451-458.
Bley D,keplen S.The strengths and limitation of PSA:Where we stand.Journal of Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1992,38(1-2):3-26.
Bornstein R,Klotz S et al.Application of linked three-dimensional PBL and dispersion moels to New York city.NATO proc 15~(th) meeting on air pollution modeling and its application,1986:543.
Cekirge H M.Use of three generations of oil spill models during the Gulf War Oil Spills.Proceedings of the Arctic and Marine Oil Spill Program(AMOP) Technical Seminar,Edmonton,Alberta,Canada,1992:93-105.
Cdrirge H M,Koch M.State-of-the Art techniques in oil spill modelling.Proceeding of Oil Spill Conference,1997:67-72.
Duka G G,Goryacheva N V,Romanchuk.Investigation of natural water self-purification capacity under simulated gonditions.Water resources,1996,23(6):668-672.
Elliott A J.Shear diffusion and the spreading of oil slicks.Marine pollution Bulletin,1986,17:308-313.
Elliott A J,Jones B.Rapid response shallow water modeling:the COMPASS system.J.N.S.1996,20(4).
French D P et al.Validation and use of spill impact modeling for impact assessment.1999Proceeding of Oil Spill Conference.
Fumio Horiguchi.Fate of oil spill in the Persian Gulf.Pollution,1991,26(4):39-62.
Fay J A.Physical processes in the spread of oil on a water surface.Proceedings of Joint Conference on Prevention and Control of Oil Spills,American Petroleum Institute,1971:463-468.
Han M W,Chang K I,Park Y C.Distribution and hydrodynamic model of the Keumdong oil spill in Kwangyang Bay,Korea,Environment International,2001,26(7-8):457-463.
Hanna S R,Chang J C,Strimaitis D G Hazardous gas model evaluation with field observations.Atmospheric Environment.Part A.General Topics,1993,27(15):2265-2285.
Holmes N S,Morawska L.A review of dispersion modeling and its application to the dispersion of particles:An overview of different dispersion models available.Atmospheric Environment,2006.40:5902-5928.
Huang J C.A review of the state-of-the-art of oil spill fate/behavior models.In:Proceddings of the 1983 Oil Spill Conference,Washington DC,1983:313-322.
Kouchi A,Ohba R,Shao Y P.Gas diffusion in a convection layer near a coastal region.Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1999,81:171-180.
Jay S,Jones C,Slinn P et al.Environmental impact assessment:Retrospect and prospect.Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2007,27:287-300.
Jiang W M,Wu X M.A linked three-dimensinal PBL and dispersion model in coastal regions. Bound-Layer Meteorology,1990,53(1-2):43-62.
Ku J-Y,Rao S T.Numerical simulation of air pollution in urban areas:Model development.Atmospheric Environment,1987,21(1):201-202.
Lehr W J et al.A new technique to estimate initial spill size using a modified Fay-type spreading formula.Marine Pollution Bulletin,1984,15:326-329.
Liu Congqing.Strategic management of environmental and soci-economic issue.Guizhou Science and Technology Publishing House,2003.
Luhar A,Sawford B L.An examination of existing shoreline fumigation models and formulation of an improved model.Atmospheric Environment,1995,30:609-620.
Lyons W A,Cole H S.Fumigation and plume trapping on the shores of Lake Michigan during stable onshore flow,Journal of Applied Meteorology,1973,12(3):494-510.
Mackay D,Paterson S,and Trudel K.A mathematical model of oil spill behavior,Report No.EE-7,Fisheries and Environment,Environmental Protection Service,Canada,1980.
Morea G J,Goodin W R,Seinfeld J H.Development of a second-generation mathematical model for urban air pollution I.model formulation.Atmospheric Environment,1982,16(4):619-620.
Mirsa P K.Dispersion from tall stacks into a shoreline environment.Atmospheric Environment,1980,14:396-400.
Nusseyc.Research to improve the quality of hazard and risk assessment for major chemical hazard.Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,1994,7(2):175-196.
Proctor R,Elliott A J,Dale A C et al.Forecast and hindcast simulations of the Bract Oil Spill.Marine Pollution Bulletin.1994,28(4):219-229.
Procter R,Elliott A J.Modelling tides and surface draft in the Arabian Gulf-application to the Gulf oil spill.Continental Shelf Research,1994,14(5):531-545.
Segal M,Pielke P A,Arritt R W et al.Application of a mesoscale atmospheric dispersion modeling system to the estimation of SO_2 concentrations from jajor elevated sources in southern florida.Atmospheric Environment,1988,22(7):1319-1334.
Spaulding M L.A state of the art review of oil spill trajectory and fate modeling.Oil and Chemical Pollution,1988,4:39-55.
Sugioka S,Kojima T.Anumreical simulation of an oil spill in Tokyo Bay.Spill Science and Technology,Bulletin,1999,5(1):51-61.
Venkatesan R,Mathiyarasu R,Somayaji K M.A study of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides at a coastal site using a modified Gaussian model and a mesoscale sea breeze model.Atmospheric Environment,2002,36:2933-2942.
Venkatesh S.Models simulations of the draft and spread of the Exxon Valdez oil spill.Atmosphere-ocean,1990,28:90-105.
Ye D Z,Ni C Z,Zhou Z C et al.Bacterial kinetics and environmental capacity in the wcstern xiamen Harbour.Acta Oceanologica Sinica,1995,14(2):247-259.