近500年来黄土高原西部降水变化的高分辨率石笋记录及其与历史文献记载的对比研究
|
摘要
重建高分辨率的历史时期气候序列是全球变化研究领域的热点,对短时间尺度气候变化形成原因及其影响进行探讨更成为地球科学研究中最为活跃的领域。洞穴化学沉积物的沉积特征及其所蕴含丰富的同位素、微量元素组成和年龄信息,是陆地环境中极为重要的古气候信息库,由于对气候变化的高度敏感性和适于精确定年等优势,洞穴石笋现已成为研究古气候记录与古生态环境变化极佳的环境信息载体,目前被广泛应用于季风气候的研究并取得了重要成果。万象洞位于青藏高原东缘与黄土高原西南的过渡带,靠近现代夏季风降水区的边缘,是典型季风系统交互作用的边缘地带,对亚洲季风系统的进退消长十分敏感,是研究石笋沉积记录与季风变化关系和古气候重建的理想区域;万象洞所在地——武都地区古代文明源远流长,各种史书典籍丰富,便于收集整理各类历史文献资料。本文基于万象洞石笋WX42-B高精度~(230)Th测年结果和石笋方解石δ~(18)O测试数据,定量重建了武都地区过去500多年来高分辨率的季风降水变化历史,同时在评价史料可靠性的基础上,建立了研究区内近500多年的旱涝变化序列,在两条序列相互校验和综合分析的基础上,获得如下认识:
1.万象洞现代洞穴碳酸盐—水同位素体系研究表明,洞穴滴水主要来自于当地的大气降水,滴水的氧同位素组成特征反映了当地大气降水的同位素组成变化,且洞内次生碳酸盐沉积时与滴水达到了同位素平衡;根据Hendy检验,万象洞石笋氧同位素过去沉积记录也表明石笋在沉积过程中并没有明显的动力分馏效应。现代沉积过程分析和过去平衡检验结果,可知万象洞石笋氧同位素是在平衡分馏条件下沉积的,可以反映过去气候环境信息,指示了当时降水的同位素组成和洞穴温度的变化,适于古气候重建。
2.通过与武都地区现代器测数据、亚洲季风指数的对比分析以及季节洞穴滴水氧同位素的研究表明,在短时间尺度上本研究区内季风强弱带来的降水量多寡是影响洞穴石笋δ~(18)O值的最主要因素,万象洞石笋δ~(18)O灵敏地记录了亚洲季风强弱变化以及季风带来的降水量信息,这与亚洲季风区其它地区石笋δ~(18)O受雨量效应影响的研究结果一致。
3.在评价史料可靠性的基础上,利用旱涝史料和现代器测气象数据建立了青藏高原东部较高海拔地区近500多年的旱涝指数变化序列,该序列与我国东部和全国旱涝灾害等级(或干湿指数)相似度很高,显示出最近500多年内存在一系列的10～100 a等短时间尺度的降水波动,而且这些事件在发生和持续的时间上具有很好的一致性,表明靠近夏季风降水区边缘的武都地区旱涝指数序列同样能够代表我国西部季风边缘区的旱涝变化。
4.利用万象洞石笋WX42-B顶部的氧同位素记录重建的武都地区近100多年来的亚洲季风降水序列显示,近100多年来亚洲季风的变化历史可分为季风降水增强期、季风降水减弱期和季风降水再次增强期三个气候段,这三个季风变化阶段与通过历史文献记载建立的旱涝指数变化相似。同时,利用~(230)Th方法得到的测年结果与历史文献记载的饥荒事件的时间在定年误差范围内一致,表明通过石笋δ~(18)O值恢复历史时期气候变化具有可靠性和准确性,利用高分辨率的石笋氧同位素来延长器测资料并重建本研究区季风降水是可行的。
5.利用石笋δ~(18)O重建了近500多年来亚洲季风降水演化历史,在1470～1875AD小冰期气候阶段内,亚洲季风降水在经历高频波动后稳定在季风降水相对较强的水平上,1875AD进入当代暖期后,季风降水开始增强,而且降水的变化幅度明显增大。近500多年亚洲季风降水与早涝指数变化相似,重建降水量指示的季风降水加强/减弱与旱涝指数指示的洪涝/干旱相位比较一致,近500多年来季风降水演化历史的三个阶段与旱涝指数序列具有同步性,季风降水减弱造成的饥荒对人类文明产生了不容忽视的影响。对亚洲季风降水的变化机制初步分析表明,短时间尺度上亚洲季风降水变化与太阳活动有关,并且与高纬度地区温度变化遥相关,功率谱分析显示,亚洲季风降水变化周期与太阳活动周期相近。
As one of the most heated topics in the research of global changes, the reconstruction of climate changes in historical periods has been paid special interest on recently. In this kind of research, the discussion on the mechanism and influence of climate changes on short timescale has become the most active topic worldwide. The characteristics of chemical sediment, the composition of inner isotope and trace element and robust age framework make the stalagmite as one of the most vitally important archives for paleoclimate study. For the moment, stalagmite has been widely implemented in the study of past climate changes in monsoonal area which result in some crucial achievements for academic world. In this study, an ideal site, Wangxiang Cave, has been deliberately selected in order to improve our understanding on past monsoonal changes as much as possible. The Wanxiang Cave is located on the transitional area of eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and southwest Loess Plateau where near the northern limit of modern Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) , therefore, it can provide information of the growth and decline of ASM system. Moreover, the Wudu area, where Wanxiang Cave situated, is famous for its civilization of long stand where plenty of historical documents are kept well to benefit our study.
In this paper, high-precise dating results of ~(230)Th and oxygen isotope data of stalagmite calcite from WX42-B are used to quantitatively reconstruct a high-resolution monsoonal precipitation sequence over the past 500 years. Meanwhile, based on the evaluation and judgment of the Chinese historical documents, the wet/drought index sequence over the past 500 years has been established as well. By comparison and analysis of these two sequences, the following results can be found:
1. The study of modern cave carbonate-water isotope system indicates the dripwater of Wangxiang Cave is mainly from local precipitation, thus the oxygen isotope of the dripwater can reflect the variation in the oxygen isotope of meteorological precipitation, in other word, the isotope equilibrium between secondary carbonate and dripwater has been reached. Furthermore, the test of past deposition record of oxygen isotope in Wangxiang Cave can also suggest that no obvious dynamic fractionation effect occurred during the deposition process of stalagmite. On the basis of the principal of Hendy isotope equilibrium test, the result of the analysis on modern depositional process and the past equilibrium test indicates that the oxygen isotope formed under the equilibrated fractionation can reflect the isotopic composition of local precipitation and variation of temperature. Therefore, the oxygen isotope of stalagmite can be used to reconstruct the past climate changes.
2. In comparison among modern instrumental data, ASM index and oxygen isotope value of seasonal drip water from Wangxiang Cave, the monsoonal precipitation is the most influential factor to induce the changes of oxygen isotope value. Thus, the oxygen isotope data can sensitively reflect the changes of monsoonal precipitation and strength variation of ASM, which consist with the results of corresponding studies on other monsoonal areas.
3. Through the evaluation on the reliability of historical documents, the sequence of wet/drought index in higher altitudes of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was established by the historical documents and modern meteorological data. This sequence is quite similar to the grade of flood /drought in the eastern China and the whole China. A series of precipitation fluctuations within 10～100yr timescales occurred over the recent 500 years, and these events are consistent with one another for the time of onset and duration. It shows the variations of drought/wet in the Wudu area near the northern limit of ASM correspond with those in the ASM domains and even in the whole China.
4. The precipitation sequence of ASM in the recent 100 years established on the oxygen isotope form the bottom of stalagmite (WX42-B) in the Wangxiang cove shows three climate periods in the recent 100 years can be divided, namely, the enhanced monsoonal precipitation period, the weakened monsoonal precipitation period and the reinforced monsoonal precipitation period. These three periods are similar to the periods according to the grade data of flood/drought developed by the historical documents. In the meanwhile, the dating results of the ~(230)Th of the famine event fall into the range of time documented by historical archives. Therefore, the accuracy and reliability of oxygen isotope to reflect the climate changes can be ascertain, and it is feasible to extend and reconstruct the monsoonal precipitation by the high-resolution stalagmite oxygen isotope data.
5. In the use of the negative correlation betweenδ~(18)O of stalagmite and ASM precipitation of the second half year, the evolved history of monsoon precipitation of Asia over the past 500 years has been reconstructed quantitatively. In the Little Ice Age from AD 1470 to AD 1875, after periods of high-frequency fluctuation, the monsoon precipitation of Asia kept stable on relatively stronger level. After 1875AD when entering the contemporary warm period, the monsoonal precipitation began to strengthen and the variation of precipitation obviously increased. The changes of monsoon precipitation index and those of wet/drought index were similar over the past 500 years. Furthermore, three evolutionary periods of monsoonal precipitation consist with the stages partitioned based on the wet/drought index. Famine events due to reduced monsoonal precipitation exerted great negative influence on the human civilization. The preliminary study of mechanism of Asian monsoonal precipitation indicated that, the variation of monsoonal precipitation was relevant to solar activity on the short time scale and correspondent with temperature changes in the high latitudes. The analysis of power spectrum showed that the variation cycles of Asian monsoon precipitation were close to those of solar activities.
1.万象洞现代洞穴碳酸盐—水同位素体系研究表明,洞穴滴水主要来自于当地的大气降水,滴水的氧同位素组成特征反映了当地大气降水的同位素组成变化,且洞内次生碳酸盐沉积时与滴水达到了同位素平衡;根据Hendy检验,万象洞石笋氧同位素过去沉积记录也表明石笋在沉积过程中并没有明显的动力分馏效应。现代沉积过程分析和过去平衡检验结果,可知万象洞石笋氧同位素是在平衡分馏条件下沉积的,可以反映过去气候环境信息,指示了当时降水的同位素组成和洞穴温度的变化,适于古气候重建。
2.通过与武都地区现代器测数据、亚洲季风指数的对比分析以及季节洞穴滴水氧同位素的研究表明,在短时间尺度上本研究区内季风强弱带来的降水量多寡是影响洞穴石笋δ~(18)O值的最主要因素,万象洞石笋δ~(18)O灵敏地记录了亚洲季风强弱变化以及季风带来的降水量信息,这与亚洲季风区其它地区石笋δ~(18)O受雨量效应影响的研究结果一致。
3.在评价史料可靠性的基础上,利用旱涝史料和现代器测气象数据建立了青藏高原东部较高海拔地区近500多年的旱涝指数变化序列,该序列与我国东部和全国旱涝灾害等级(或干湿指数)相似度很高,显示出最近500多年内存在一系列的10～100 a等短时间尺度的降水波动,而且这些事件在发生和持续的时间上具有很好的一致性,表明靠近夏季风降水区边缘的武都地区旱涝指数序列同样能够代表我国西部季风边缘区的旱涝变化。
4.利用万象洞石笋WX42-B顶部的氧同位素记录重建的武都地区近100多年来的亚洲季风降水序列显示,近100多年来亚洲季风的变化历史可分为季风降水增强期、季风降水减弱期和季风降水再次增强期三个气候段,这三个季风变化阶段与通过历史文献记载建立的旱涝指数变化相似。同时,利用~(230)Th方法得到的测年结果与历史文献记载的饥荒事件的时间在定年误差范围内一致,表明通过石笋δ~(18)O值恢复历史时期气候变化具有可靠性和准确性,利用高分辨率的石笋氧同位素来延长器测资料并重建本研究区季风降水是可行的。
5.利用石笋δ~(18)O重建了近500多年来亚洲季风降水演化历史,在1470～1875AD小冰期气候阶段内,亚洲季风降水在经历高频波动后稳定在季风降水相对较强的水平上,1875AD进入当代暖期后,季风降水开始增强,而且降水的变化幅度明显增大。近500多年亚洲季风降水与早涝指数变化相似,重建降水量指示的季风降水加强/减弱与旱涝指数指示的洪涝/干旱相位比较一致,近500多年来季风降水演化历史的三个阶段与旱涝指数序列具有同步性,季风降水减弱造成的饥荒对人类文明产生了不容忽视的影响。对亚洲季风降水的变化机制初步分析表明,短时间尺度上亚洲季风降水变化与太阳活动有关,并且与高纬度地区温度变化遥相关,功率谱分析显示,亚洲季风降水变化周期与太阳活动周期相近。
As one of the most heated topics in the research of global changes, the reconstruction of climate changes in historical periods has been paid special interest on recently. In this kind of research, the discussion on the mechanism and influence of climate changes on short timescale has become the most active topic worldwide. The characteristics of chemical sediment, the composition of inner isotope and trace element and robust age framework make the stalagmite as one of the most vitally important archives for paleoclimate study. For the moment, stalagmite has been widely implemented in the study of past climate changes in monsoonal area which result in some crucial achievements for academic world. In this study, an ideal site, Wangxiang Cave, has been deliberately selected in order to improve our understanding on past monsoonal changes as much as possible. The Wanxiang Cave is located on the transitional area of eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and southwest Loess Plateau where near the northern limit of modern Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) , therefore, it can provide information of the growth and decline of ASM system. Moreover, the Wudu area, where Wanxiang Cave situated, is famous for its civilization of long stand where plenty of historical documents are kept well to benefit our study.
In this paper, high-precise dating results of ~(230)Th and oxygen isotope data of stalagmite calcite from WX42-B are used to quantitatively reconstruct a high-resolution monsoonal precipitation sequence over the past 500 years. Meanwhile, based on the evaluation and judgment of the Chinese historical documents, the wet/drought index sequence over the past 500 years has been established as well. By comparison and analysis of these two sequences, the following results can be found:
1. The study of modern cave carbonate-water isotope system indicates the dripwater of Wangxiang Cave is mainly from local precipitation, thus the oxygen isotope of the dripwater can reflect the variation in the oxygen isotope of meteorological precipitation, in other word, the isotope equilibrium between secondary carbonate and dripwater has been reached. Furthermore, the test of past deposition record of oxygen isotope in Wangxiang Cave can also suggest that no obvious dynamic fractionation effect occurred during the deposition process of stalagmite. On the basis of the principal of Hendy isotope equilibrium test, the result of the analysis on modern depositional process and the past equilibrium test indicates that the oxygen isotope formed under the equilibrated fractionation can reflect the isotopic composition of local precipitation and variation of temperature. Therefore, the oxygen isotope of stalagmite can be used to reconstruct the past climate changes.
2. In comparison among modern instrumental data, ASM index and oxygen isotope value of seasonal drip water from Wangxiang Cave, the monsoonal precipitation is the most influential factor to induce the changes of oxygen isotope value. Thus, the oxygen isotope data can sensitively reflect the changes of monsoonal precipitation and strength variation of ASM, which consist with the results of corresponding studies on other monsoonal areas.
3. Through the evaluation on the reliability of historical documents, the sequence of wet/drought index in higher altitudes of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was established by the historical documents and modern meteorological data. This sequence is quite similar to the grade of flood /drought in the eastern China and the whole China. A series of precipitation fluctuations within 10～100yr timescales occurred over the recent 500 years, and these events are consistent with one another for the time of onset and duration. It shows the variations of drought/wet in the Wudu area near the northern limit of ASM correspond with those in the ASM domains and even in the whole China.
4. The precipitation sequence of ASM in the recent 100 years established on the oxygen isotope form the bottom of stalagmite (WX42-B) in the Wangxiang cove shows three climate periods in the recent 100 years can be divided, namely, the enhanced monsoonal precipitation period, the weakened monsoonal precipitation period and the reinforced monsoonal precipitation period. These three periods are similar to the periods according to the grade data of flood/drought developed by the historical documents. In the meanwhile, the dating results of the ~(230)Th of the famine event fall into the range of time documented by historical archives. Therefore, the accuracy and reliability of oxygen isotope to reflect the climate changes can be ascertain, and it is feasible to extend and reconstruct the monsoonal precipitation by the high-resolution stalagmite oxygen isotope data.
5. In the use of the negative correlation betweenδ~(18)O of stalagmite and ASM precipitation of the second half year, the evolved history of monsoon precipitation of Asia over the past 500 years has been reconstructed quantitatively. In the Little Ice Age from AD 1470 to AD 1875, after periods of high-frequency fluctuation, the monsoon precipitation of Asia kept stable on relatively stronger level. After 1875AD when entering the contemporary warm period, the monsoonal precipitation began to strengthen and the variation of precipitation obviously increased. The changes of monsoon precipitation index and those of wet/drought index were similar over the past 500 years. Furthermore, three evolutionary periods of monsoonal precipitation consist with the stages partitioned based on the wet/drought index. Famine events due to reduced monsoonal precipitation exerted great negative influence on the human civilization. The preliminary study of mechanism of Asian monsoonal precipitation indicated that, the variation of monsoonal precipitation was relevant to solar activity on the short time scale and correspondent with temperature changes in the high latitudes. The analysis of power spectrum showed that the variation cycles of Asian monsoon precipitation were close to those of solar activities.
引文
Agnihotri R,Dutta K,Bhushan R,Somayajulu B L K.Evidence for solar forcing on the Indian monsoon during the last millennium.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2002,198(3-4):521-527
Ammann C M,Joos F,Schimel D S,Otto-Bliesner B L,Tomas R A.Solar influence on climate during the past millennium:Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model.PNAS,2007,104(10):3713-3718
AraguAs-AraguAs L,Froehlich K,Rozanski K.Stable isotope composition of precipitation over Southeast Asia.J Geophys Res,1998,103:28721-28742
Asmerom Y,Polyak V,Burns S,Rassmussen J.Solar forcing of Holocene climate:New insights from a speleothem record,southwestern United States.Geology,2007,35(1):1-4
Bar-Matthews M,Ayalon A,Kaufinan A.Late Quaternary palaeoclimate in the Eastern Mediterranean region from stable isotope analysis of speleothems at Soreq Cave,Israel.Quaternary Research,1997,47:155-168
Beer J,Mende W,Stellmacher R.The role of the Sun in climate forcing.Quaternary Science Reviews,2000,19(1-5):403-415
Beynen P E V,Asmerom Y,Polyak V,Soto L,Polk J S.Variable intensity of teleconnections during the late Holocene insubtropical North America from an isotopic study of speleothem from Florida.Geophys Res Lett,2007,34,L18703,doi:10.1029/2007GL031046
Bond G,Kromer B,Beer J,Muscheler R,Evans M,Showers W,Hoffmann S,Lotti-Bond R,Hajdas I,Bonani G.Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene.Science,2001,294:2130-2136
Bradley R S.High Resolution Record of Past Climate from Monsoon Asia,The Last 2000 Years and Beyond,Recommendations for Research,PAGES Workshop Report,Series 93-1,1993,1-24
Broecker W S.A preliminary evaluation of uranium series in equilibrium as a tool for absolute age measurement on marine carbonates.Journal of Geophysics Research,1963,68:2817-2834
Bryson R A,Murray T J.Climates of Hunger.Madison:Univ Wisconsin Press,1977,171
Burns S J,Fleitmann D,Mudelsee M,Neff U,Matter A,Mangini A.A 780-year annually resolved record of Indian Ocean monsoon precipitation from a speleothem from south Oman.J Geophys Res,2002,107(D20):4434,doi:10.1029/2001JD001281
Burns S J,Matter A,Frank N,Mangini A.Speleothem-based Paleoclimate record from northern Oman,Geology,1998,26(6):499-502
Chan J C L, Zhou W. PDO, ENSO and the early summer monsoon rainfall over south China. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32(8): L08810, doi: 10.1029/2004GL022015
Chang C P, Zhang Y, Li T. Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTs, Part I. Roles of the subtropical ridge. J Climate, 2000, 13:4310-4325
Chen S T, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Liu D B, Cheng H, Edwards R L. A possible Younger Dryas-type event during Asian monsoonal Termination 3. Science in China (Series D), 2006,49(9): 982-990
Cheng H, Edward R L, Hoff J, Gallup C D, Richards D A, Asmerom Y. The half-lives of uranium-234 and thorium-230. Chemical Geology, 2000,169(1):17-33
Cheng H, Edwards R L, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Ming Y F, Kelly M J, Wang X F , Gallup C D, Liu W G. A penultimate glacial monsoon record from Hulu Cave and two-phase glacial terminations.Geology, 2006, 34(3): 217-220
COHMAP Members. Climatic changes of the last 18000 years: observations and model simulations.Science, 1988,241 (4868/4869): 1043-1052
Cowie J. Climate and Human Change, Disaster or Opportunity? New York: Parthenon Publishing,1998
Craig H. Isotopic variations in meteoric waters. Science, 1961, 133: 1702-1703
Crowley T J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 2000,289:270-277
Cruz F W J, Burns S J, Karmann I, et al., Isolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 11600 years in subtropical Brazil. Nature, 2005,434: 63-66
Dansgaard W. Stable isotopes in precipitation. Tellus, 1964,16 (4): 436-468
Ding Y H, Chan J C L. The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2005,89 (1-4): 117-142
Ding Y H, Li C Y, Liu Y J. Overview of the south china sea monsoon experiment. Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, 2004,21: 343-360
Doral A J, Edwards R L, Ito E, Gonzalez L A. Climatic and vegetation history of the mid-continent from 75 to 25 ka: A speleothem record from Crevice Cave, Missouri, USA. Science, 1998, 282:1871-1874
Dugam S S, Kakade S B, Verma R K. Interannual and long-term variability in the North Atlantic oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Theor Appl Climatol, 1997, 58: 21-29
Duplessy J C, Overpeck J. The PAGES/ CLIVAR INTERSECTION —Providing paleoclimatic perspective needed to understand climate variability and predictability, Coordinated research objectives of the IGBP and WCRP programs, Venice, Italy, 1994, 9
Dykoski C A, Edwards R L, Cheng H. A high-resolution, absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,China.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2005,233:71-86
Dykoski C A,Edwards R L,Cheng H,Yuan D X,Cai Y J,Zhang M L,Lin Y S,Qing J M,An Z S,Revenaugh J.A high-resolution,absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,China.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2005,233:71-86
Eddy J A.Past Global Changes Project,Proposed Implementation Plans for Research Activities,Global Change Report No.19,Sweden,Stockholm,IGBP.1992,1-112
Edwards R L,Chen J H,Wasserburg G J.~(238)U-~(234)U-~(230)Th-~(232)Th systematic and the precise measurement of time over the past 500,000 years.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,1987,81:175-192
Edwards R L,Gallup D G,Cheng H.Uranium-series dating of marine and lacus trine carbonates.In:Bourdon B,Henderson G M,Lundstrom C C,et al.eds.Review in Mineralogy and Geochemistry (52):Uranium-series Geochemistry.Washington:the Mineralogical Society of America,2003,363-405
Epstein S,Buchsbaum R,Lowenstam H A,Urey H C.Carbonate-water isotopic temperature scale.Bulletin of the Geological Society of America.1951,62(4):417-425
Epstein S,Buchsbaum R,Lowenstam H A,Urey H C.Revised carbonate-water isotopic temperature scale.Bulletin of the Geological Society of America.1953,64(11):1315-1326
Fleitmanna D,Burns SJ,Mudelsee M,Neff U,Kramers J,Magini A,Matter A.Holocene forcing of the Indian Monsoon recorded in a stalagmite high-resolution speleothem δ~(18)O record from southern Oman.Science,2003,300:1737-1739
Fleitmanna D,Stephen J B,Neff U,Mudelsee M,Magini A,Matter A.Palaeoclimatic interpretation of high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles derived from annually laminated speleothems from Southern Oman.Quat Sci Rev,2004,23:935-945
Fleitmanna D.,Burns S J,Mangini M,Kramers J,Villa I,Neff U,Al-Subbary A A,Buettner A,Hippler D,Matter A.Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen(Socotra),Quaternary Science Reviews,2007,26:170-188
Fritz P,Drimmie R J,Frappe S K,O'Shea K,The isotopic composition of precipitation and groundwater in Canada.In:Isotope Techniques in Water Resources Development.International Atomic Energy Association,Vienna,1987,539-550
Genty D,Blamart D,Ouahdi R,Gilmour M,Baker A,Jouzel J,Van-Exter S.Precise dating of Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations in western Europe from stalagmite data.Nature,2003,421:833-837
Gupta A K,Anderson D M,Overpeck J T.Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean.Nature,2003,421:354-57
Gupta A K, Das M, Anderson D M. Solar influence on the Indian summer monsoon during the Holocene.Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32: 1-4
Haigh J D. Climate variability and the influence of the Sun. Science, 2001, 294: 2109-2111
Haigh J D. The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 1996, 272: 981-984
Hans E G. Applications of magnetic sector ICP-M Singeochemistry. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 2002,75: 1-15
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, Sato M . GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J Geophys Res,1999,104(D24): 30997-31022
Harmom R S, Land L S, Mitterer R M, Garrett P, Schwarcz H P, Larson G J. Bermuda sea level during the last interglacial. Nature, 1981,289:481-483
He Y Q, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Cheng H. High resolution stalagmite δ~(18)O record over the past 1000 year from Dongge Cave in Guizhou. Chin Sci Bull, 2005, 50(10): 1003-1008
Henderson G M, Caving in to new chronologies. Science, 2006,313: 620-622
Hendy C H, Wilson A T. Palaeoclimatic data from speleothem. Nature, 1968, 216: 48-51
Hendy C H, Wilson A T. Palaeoclimatic data from speleothems. Nature, 1968,216:48-51
Hendy C H. The isotopic geochemistry of speleothems—I. The calculation of the effects of different modes of formation on the isotopic composition of speleothems and their applicability as paleoclimate indicators. Geochimi Cosmochimi Acta, 1971,35: 801-824
Hesterberg R, Siegenthaler U. Production and stable isotopic geochemistry of speleothems. In: Fritz P.Fontes J C, eds. Handbook of environmental isotope geochemistry. Elsevire, Amsterdam, 1986,271-303
Hesterberg R, Siegenthaler U. Production and stable isotopic. Composition of CO_2 in a soil near Bern,Switzerland. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 1991,43:197-205
Hu F, Kaufman D, Yongji S, Nelson D, Shemesg A, Huang Y, Tian J, Bond G, Clegg B, Brown T. Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic. Science, 2003, 301:1890-1893
Hughes M K. A preliminary reconstruction of rainfall in north central China since AD1600 from tree ring density and width. Qua Res, 1994,42: 88-99
Hulme M, Barrow E M, Arnell N W, Harrison P A, Johns T C, Downing T E. Relative impacts of human induced climate change and natural climate variability. Nature, 1999, 397:688-691
Johnson K R, Ingram B L, Warren D S, Zhang P Z. East Asian summer monsoon variability during marine isotope stage 5 based on speleothem δ~(18)O records from Wanxiang Cave, central China.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 2006, 236: 5-19
Johnson K R, Ingram B L. Spatial and temporal variability in the stable isotope systematics of modern precipitation in China:Implication for paleoclimate reconstructions.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2004,220(3-4):365-377
Jones P D,Moberg A.Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations:An extensive revision and an update to 2001.J Climate,2003,16:206-223
Jones P D,New M,Parker D E,Martin S,Rigor I G.Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years.Reviews of Geophysics,1999,37(2):173-199
Jouzel J,Froehlich K,Schotterer U.Deuterium and oxyen-18 in present-day precipitation:data and modeling.Journal of Hydrological Sciences,1997,42(5):747-763
Krishnan R,Sugi M.Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.Clim Dyn,2003,21:233-242
Lamb H H.Climate,Present,Past and Future.London:Methuen,1977,835
Lauritzen S E.High-resolution paleotemoerature proxy record for the last interglaciation based on Norwegian speleothems.Quaternary Research,1995,43:133-146
Li H C,Ku T L,Stott L D.Applications of interammual-resolution stable isotope records of speleothem:Climatic changes in Beijing and Tianjin,China during the past 500 years-the δ~(18)O record.1998,Science in China(Series D),28(4):362-368
Li J P,Zeng Q C.A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons.Adv Atmos Sci,2003,20:299-302
Li J P,Zeng Q C.A new monsoon index,its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation.Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(3):351-365
Li J P,Zeng Q C.Aunified monsoon index.Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(8):1-4
Liu S M.Changing Climate of China in Historical Time.Taiwan:Commercial Book Publishers,1982.76-124
Liang E Y,Shao X M,Kong Z C,Lin J X.The extreme drought in the 1920s and its effect on tree growth deduced from tree ring analysis:a case study in North China.Annals of Forest Science,2003,60(2):145-152
Ma Z G,Fu C B.Evidences of Drying Trend in the Global During the later Half of 20th Century and Their Relationship with Large-Scale Climate Background.Science in China(Series D),2007,50(5):776-788
Mann M E,Bradley R S,Hughes M K.Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.Nature,1998,392:779-787
Mann M E,Jones P D.Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(15):1820,doi:10.1029/2003GL017814
Mann M E,Jones P D.Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.Geophys Res Letts,2003, 30 (15): 18-20
Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Francis R C.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 1997, 78: 1069-1079
Mantua N J, Hare S T. The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr, 2002,58: 35-44
Mayewski P A, Rohling E E, Stager J C, Stager J C, Karlen W, Maasch K A, Meeker L D, Meyerson E A, Gasse F, Kreveld S V, Holmgren K, Lee-Thorp J, Rosqvist G, Rack F, Staubwasser M,Schneider R R, Steig E J. Holocene climate variability. Quat Res, 2004,62: 243-255
McCrea J M. On the isotopic chemistry of carbonates and a paleotemperature scale. J Chem Phys,1950,18: 849-857
McDermott F, Mattey D P, Hawkesworth C, Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem δ~(18)O record form SW Ireland. Science, 2001,294: 1328-1331
Meehl G A, Washington W M, Wigley T M L, Arblaster J M, Dai A. Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century. J Climate, 2003, 16: 426-444
Muscheler R, Joos F, Beer J, Muller S A, Vonmoos M, Snowball I. Solar activity during the last 1000yr inferred from radionuclide records, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2007,doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.012
Neff U, Burns S J, Mangini A, Mudelsee M, Fleitmann D, Matter A. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago. Nature, 2001,411:290-293
O'Neil J R, Adami L H and Epstein S. Revised value for the ~(18)O fractionation factor between H_2O and CO_2 at 25℃. United States Geological Survey Research, 1975, (3): 623-624
O'Neil J R, Clayton R N, Mayeda T K. Oxygen isotope fractionation in divalent metal carbonates.Journal of Chemical Physics, 1969,51:5547-5558
Overpeck J, Anderson D, Trumbore S, Prell W. The southwest Indian Monsoon over the last 18000 years.Climate Dynamics, 1996,12 (3): 213-225
Overpeck J, Trenberth K. Drought Summary. In: CLIVAR/PAGES/IPCC Workshop. A multi-millennia perspective on drought and implications for the future. Tucson, AZ, USA: November,2003, 18-21
PAGES. Paleoclimates of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Pages Series 9521. Bern: Pages Press, 1995
Partin J W, Cobb K M, Adkins J F, Clark B, Fernandez D P. Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific
Paulsen D E, Li H C, Ku T L. Climate variability in central China over the last 1270 years revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2003,22: 691-701
Peterson T C, Vose R S. An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1997, 78: 2837-2849
Ponte L. The Cooling. Englewood: Prentice Hall, 1976,306
Rind D. The Sun's role in climate variations. Science, 2002,296:673-677
Rozanski K, AraguAs-AraguAs L, Gonfiantini R. Isotopic patterns in the modern global precipitation.In: Swart P K, eds. Climate change in continental isotopic records. Amer Geophys Union, USA Monograph 1993,78, 1-36
Savin S M, Yeh H W. Stable isotopes in ocean sediments, in Emiliani C. eds. The Sea, The Oceanic lithosphere: Wiley-Interscience, 1981,7: 1521-1554
Schwarcz H P, Ford D C. Continental Pleistocene climatic variations from speleothem age and isotope data. Science, 1974,184: 893-895
Schwarcz H P, Harmon R S, Thompson P, Ford D C. Stable isotope studies of fluid inclusions in speleothems and their paleoclimatic signicance. Geochemica et Cosmochemica Acta, 1976, 40:657-665
Shackleton N J. Oxygen isotope analyses and Pleistocene temperatures re-assessed, Nature, 1967, 215:15-17
Shindell D T, Schmidt G A, Mann M E. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum. Science, 2001,294: 2149-2152
Shindell D, Rind D, Balachandran N. Solar Cycle variability, ozone, and Climate. Science, 1999, 284:305-308
Siegenthaler U. Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in the water cycle, in JSger E and Hunziker J C eds, Lectures in Isotope Geology, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 1979,264-273
Sinha A, Cannariato K G, Stott L D, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Yadava M G, Ramesh R, Singh I B. A 900-year (600 to 1500AD) record of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation from the core monsoon zone of India. Geophys Res Lett, 2007,34, L16707, doi: 10.1029/GL030431
Soon W, Baliunas S. Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years. Climate Res,2003,23: 89-110
Stuivel M, Reimer P J, Braziunas T F. High-resolution radiocarbon age calibration for terrestrial and marine samples. Radiocarbon. 1998,40(3): 1127-1151
Tan M, Liu T S, Hou J Z. Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003,30(12): 1617-620
Tett S F B, Betts R, Crowley T J, Gregory J, Johns T C, Jones A, Osbom T J, Ostrom E, Roberts D L,Woodage M J. The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcing on climate and hydrology since 1550. Clim Dyn, 2007, 28(1): 3-34
Urey H C. The thermodynamic properties of isotopic substances. Journal of the Chemical Society, 1947,562-581
Vuille M, Werner C M, Bradley R S, Keimig F. Stable isotopes in precipitation in the Asian monsoon region Journal Of Geophysical Research, 2005,10(D23108):doi:10.1029/2005JD006022
Wang B, Ding Q H. Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett,2006, 33, L06711, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025347
Wang L, Sarnthein M, Erlenkeuser H, Grimalt J, Grootes P. East Asian monsoon climate during the late Pleistocene: high-resolution sediment records from the South China Sea. Marine Geology, 1999a,1156:245-284
Wang L, Sarnthein, M, Erlenkeuser H, Grootes P M, Grimalt J O, Pelejero C, Linck G, 1999b, Holocene variations in Asian monsoon moisture: a bidecadal sediment record from the South China Sea.Geophysical Research Letters, 26,2889-2892
Wang P K, Zhang D. Reconstruction of the 18th century summer precipitation of Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou, China In: Bradley R S, Jones P D (eds.), Climate Since AD1500. London & New York: Routledge,1992.184-209
Wang X F, Augusto S A, Edwards R L, Edwards R L, Cheng H, Cristalli P S, Smart P L, Richards D A,Shen C Z. Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies. Nature, 2004,432: 740-743
Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, An Z S, Wu J Y, Shen C C, Dorale JA. A high-resolution absolute dated Late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China. Science, 2001,294: 2345-2348
Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Kong X G, Shao X H, Chen S T, Wu J Y, Jiang X Y, Wang X F,An Z S. Millennial-and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224000 years. Nature, 2008, 451:1090-1093
Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, He Y Q, Kong X G, An Z S, Wu J Y, Kelly M J, Dykoski C A, Li X D. The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate. Science,2005,308: 854-857
Partin J W, Cobb K M, Adkins J F, Clark B, Fernandez D P. Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature, 2007,499(27): 452-456
Webster P J, Magana V, Palmer T N, Magana V O, Palmer T N, Shukla J, Tomas R A, Yanai M,Yasunari T. Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res,1998, 103: 14451-14510
Weng H, Lau K M, Xue Y. Multi-scale summer rainfall variability over China and its long-term link to global sea surface temperature variability. J Meteor Soc Japan, 1999,77: 845-857
Wiles G C, D'Aririgo R D, Villalb R, Calkin P E, Barclay D J. Century-scale solar variability and Alaskan temperature change over the past millennium, Geophysical Research letters, 2004, 31,L15203,doi: 10.1029/2004GL020050
Winograd I J, Coplen T B, Landwehr J M, Riggs A C, Ludwig K R, Szabo B J, Kolesar P T, Revesz K M.Continuous 500,000-year climatic record from vein calcite in Devils Hole,Nevada.Science,1992,258:255-260
Winograd I J,Ludwig K R.Comment on "High Resolution Paleotemperature Proxy Record for theLast Interglaciation Based on Norwegian Speleothems" by Stein-Erik Lauritzen.Quaternary Research,1996,45:102
Winograd I J.A 250,000-year climatic record from Great Basin vein calcite.Implications for Milankovitch theory.Science,1988,242:1275-1280
Wu J Y,Shao X H,Kong X G,Wang Y J.Imprint of solar activity on Nanjing stalagmite annual layer thickness sequence dur-ing the Last Glacial Maximum.Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(4):441-447
Yadava M G,Ramesh R,Pant G B.Past monsoon rainfall variations in peninsular India recorded in a 331-year-old speleothem.The Holocene,2004,14(4):517-524
Yang B,Braeuning A,Johnson K R.General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia.Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(9),doi:10.1029/2001GL014485
Yang X L,Zhang P Z,Chen F H,Huh C A,Li H C,Cheng H,Johnson K R,Liu J H,An C L.Modern stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition and its implications of climatic change from a high-elevation cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past 50 years.Chin Sci Bull,2007,52(9):1238-1247
Yuan D X,Cheng H,Edwards R L.Timing,duration and transition of the last interglacial Asian Monsoon.Science,2004,304:575-578
Zhang D,Jim C Y,Lin C S,He Y Q,Lee F.Climate change,social unrest and dynastic transition in an-cient China.Chinese Science Bulletin,2005,50(2):137-144
Zhang J C.Reconstruction of climate in china for historical times.Beijing:Science Press,1998,1-174
Zhang J W,Jin M,Chen F H et al.High-resolution precipitation variations in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau over the last 800 years documented by sediment cores of Qinghai Lake.Chinese Science Bulletin 2003,48(14):1451-1456
Zhang J W,Jin M,Chert F H,Battarbee R W,Henderson A C G.High-resolution precipitation variations in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau over the last 800 years documented by sediment cores of Qinghai Lake.Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(14):1451-1456
Zhang P Z,Johnson K R,Chen Y M,Chen F H,Lynn I,Zhang X L,Zhang C J,Wang S M,Pang F S,Long L D.Modern systematic and environmental significance of stable isotopic variations in Wanxiang Cave,Wudu,China.Chin Sci Bull,2004,49(15):1649-1652
Zhang Y,Wallace J M,Battisti D S.ENSO-Iike interdecadal variability:1900—93.J Climate,1997,10:1004-1020
Zheng J Y,Hao Z X,Di X C.Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.Science in China(Series D),2005,48(12):2182-2193
Zhou S Q,Nakawo M,Sakai A,Matsuda Y,Duan K Q,Pu J C.Water isotope variations in the snow pack and summer precipitation at July 1 Glacier,Qilian Mountains in northwest China.Chinese Science Bulletin 2007,52(21):2963-2972
Zhou W,Li C Y,Chart J C L.The interdecadal variations of the summer monsoon rainfall over South China.Meteorol Atmos Phys,2006,doi:10.1007/S00703-006-0184-9
蔡演军,石笋记录的最近5万年印度季风气候。2003,博士论文,北京,中国科学院地球环境研究所
陈家其,近二千年中国重大气象灾害气候变化背景初步分析。自然灾害学报,1996,5(2):18-27
陈业新,地震与汉代荒政。中南民族学院学报(哲学社会科学版),1997,(3):88-91
程海,艾思本,王先锋,汪永进,孔兴功,袁道先,张美良,林玉石,覃嘉铭,冉景丞,中国南方石笋氧同位素记录的重要意义。第四纪研究,2005,25(2):157-163
丁仲礼,刘东生,晚更新世东亚古季风变化动力机制的概念模型。科学通报,1998,43(2):122-132
段克勤,王宁练,李月芳,孙维贞,青藏高原达普索冰芯中积累量与太阳活动。科学通报,2000,45(1):75-78
葛全胜,郑景云,满志敏,方修琦,张丕远,过去2000年中国东部冬半年温度变化序列重建及初步分析。地学前缘,2002,9(2):169-181
葛全胜,王顺兵,郑景云,过去5000年中国气温变化序列重建。自然科学进展,2006,16(6):689-696
葛全胜,张丕远,历史文献中气候信息的评价。地理学报,1990,45(1):24-29
葛全胜,郑景云,方修琦,满志敏,张雪芹,张丕远,王维强,过去2000年中国东部冬半年温度变化。第四纪研究,2002,22(2):166-173
葛全胜,郑景云,刘键,过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期。气候变化研究进展,2006,3(3):108-112
龚高法,Hameed S,近2000年来中国温度变化与湿润状况变化之间的关系。见:张翼等主编,气候变化及其影响。北京:气象出版社,1993,72-77
国家自然科学基金委员会,全球变化:中国面临的机遇和挑战。北京:高等教育出版社,1998,61-75
洪阿实,彭子成,李平,陈承惠,许志峰,王明亮,福建宁化天鹅洞石笋晚第四纪同位素古温度研究。地球化学,1995,24(2):138-145
洪业汤,刘东生,姜洪波,Zhou L,Beer J,朱泳煊,冷雪天,李汉鼎,秦小光,洪冰,王羽,林庆华,曾毅强,太阳辐射驱动气候变化的泥炭氧同位素证据。中国科学(D辑),1999,29(6):527-531
侯甬坚,祝一志,历史记录提取近5～2.7ka黄河中下游平原重要气候事件与其环境意义。海洋地质与第四纪地质,2000,20(4):23-29
黄嘉佑,北京地区季节旱涝长期变化分析。水科学进展,1992,3(1):59-64
黄磊,邵雪梅,青海德令哈地区近400年来的降水量变化与太阳活动。第四纪研究,2005,25(2):184-192
姜彤,施雅风,气候变暖、长江水灾与可能损失。地球科学进展,2003,18(2):277-284
姜彤,张强,王苏民,近1000年长江中下游旱涝与气候变化关系。第四纪研究,2004,24(5):518-524
蒋德隆,严济远,长江下游地区夏季早涝演变趋势的研究。地理学报,1965,31康沛竹,灾荒与太平天国革命的失败。北方论丛,1995,6:51-55
李彬,袁道先,林玉石,桂林地区降水、洞穴滴水及现代洞穴碳酸盐氧碳同位素研究及其环境意义。中国科学(D辑),2000,30(1):81-87
李峰,何金海,北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化。热带气象学报,2000,16(3)260-271
李红春,顾德隆,Dortg Paulsen,王非。陈文寄,尹功明,程海,Edwards R L,陕南石笋稳定同位素记录中的古气候和古季风信息。地震地质,2000,22:63-78
李强,刘禹,蔡秋芳,孙军艳等,山西宁武地区1686年以来年降水重建。第四纪研究,2006,26(6):999-1006
李兆元,吴素良,杨文峰,陈建文,王玉玺,余兴,西安地区旱涝气候的长期变化。气候与环境研究,1997,2(4):356-360
粱尔源,邵雪梅,黄磊,王丽丽,中国中西部地区树木年轮对20世纪20年代干旱灾害的指示。自然科学进展,2004,14(4):469-474
刘启明,贵州凉风洞石笋的古气候记录与古生态环境意义。2003,博士论文,中国科学院地球化学研究所
刘晓宏,秦大河,邵雪梅,赵良菊,陈拓,任贾文,西藏林芝地区近350a来降水变化及突变分析,冰川冻土,2003,25(4):375-379
刘禹,Park W K,蔡秋芳,Seo J W,Jung H S,公元1840年以来东亚夏季风降水变化——以中国和韩国的树轮记录为例。中国科学,D辑,2003,33(6):543-549
刘禹.史江峰,Shishov V,Vaganov E,杨银科,蔡秋芳,孙军艳,王雷,Djanseitov I,以树轮晚材宽度重建公元1726年以来贺兰山北部5-7月降水量。科学通报,2004,49(3):265-269
卢壁,关于早涝的周期性问题。1961年4月9日人民日报。
鲁瑞洁,夏虹,腾格里沙漠南缘油松树轮宽度变化及其对气候因子的响应。中国沙漠,2006,26(3):399-402
马利民,刘禹,蔡秋芳,安芷生,贺兰山树轮晚材宽度记录中的降水量变化。海洋地质与第四纪 地质,2003,23(4):109-114
马柱国,邵丽娟,中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系。大气科学,2006,30(3)464-474
满志敏,光绪三年北方大旱的气候背景。复旦学报(社会科学版),2000,(6):28-35
聂红萍,清朝甘肃救灾措施。甘肃社会科学1999年论文辑刊:8-9
欧廷海,钱维宏,东亚季风边缘带上的植被变化。地球物理学报,2006,49(3):698-705
彭子成,王兆荣,孙卫东,高精度热电离质谱(TIMS)铀系法对第四纪标样年龄测定的研究。科学通报,1997,42(19):2090-2093
强明瑞,陈发虎,张家武,高尚玉,周爱锋,2ka来苏干湖沉积碳酸盐稳定同位素记录的气候变化,科学通报,2005,50(13):1385-1393
邵雪梅,黄磊,刘洪滨,梁尔源,方修琦,王丽丽,树轮记录的青海德令哈地区千年降水变化。中国科学D辑,2004,34(2):145-153
盛承禹,近五百年旱涝史料的几点初步分析,见中央气象局研究所主编《全国气候变化学术讨论会文集》,科学出版社,1981,36-45
施能,陈绿文,林振敏,2002,全球降水与区域性季风降水相关分析,气象科技,30(2):73-79
谭明.刘东生,秦小光等,北京石花洞全新世石笋微生长层与稳定同位素气候意义初步研究。中国岩溶,1997,16(1):1-10
谭明,刘东生,钟华,钟华,李铁英,赵树森,李红春,吕金波,鲁向阳,季风条件下全新世洞穴碳酸盐稳定同位素气候信息初步研究。科学通报,1997,42(12):1302-1306
汤绪,钱维宏,梁萍,东亚夏季风边缘带的气候特征。高原气象,2006,25(3):375-381
汤仲鑫,保定地区近五百年旱涝相对集中期分析,见中央气象局研究所编《气候变迁和超长期预报文集》,科学出版社,1977,45-49
唐锡仁,薄树人,河北省明清时期干旱情况的分析。地理学报,1962,28
汪品先,翦知缗,寻求高分辨率的古环境记录。第四纪研究,1999,(1):1-17
汪永进,南京石笋记录的末次冰期气候事件与全球对比。2000,博士论文,南京师范大学。
王华,李强,杨琰,覃嘉铭,冯玉梅,涂林玲,应启和,钙华测年中不同方法的对比研究。岩矿测试,2006,25(4):306-310
王培华,元代北方水旱灾害时空分布特点与申检体覆救灾措施。社会科学战线,1999,(3):143-149
王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,中国小冰期的气候。第四纪研究,1998,1:54-64
王绍武,赵宗慈,陈振华,公元950年～1991年的旱涝型。见:王绍武,黄朝迎著,长江黄河旱涝灾害发生规律及其经济影响的诊断研究。北京:气象出版社,1993,55-66
王绍武,赵宗慈,近500年我国旱涝史料的分析。地理学报,1979,34(4):329-341
王双怀,五千年来中国西部水环境的变迁,陕西师范大学学报,2004,33(5):5-13
王苏民,刘健,周静,中国小冰期盛期的气候环境。湖泊科学,2003,15(4)369-376
卫克勤,林瑞芬,论季风气候对我国雨水同位素组成的影响。地球化学,1994,23(1):33-41
武健伟,鲁瑞沽,赵廷宁,湖泊沉积记录的近500年来浑善达克沙地气候环境变化,中国水土保持科学,2004,2(4):42-47
谢义炳,清代水旱灾之周期研究,气象学报,1943,17
徐尔灏,论年雨量之常态。气象学报,1950,(21):17-34
许靖华,太阳气候饥荒与民族大迁移。中国科学(D辑),1998,28(4)366-384
严中伟,李兆春,马晓春,历史上10年～100年尺度气候跃变的分析。大气科学,1993,17(6):663-672
杨琰,袁道先,程海,高精度ICP-MS~(230)Th测年新技术及其在贵州衙门洞Yl石笋测年研究中的应用。中国岩溶,2006,25(2):89-94
杨泽荣,七十年前甘肃旱灾惨景的真实写照。档案,甘肃省档案馆,1999,(1):16
姚檀栋,段克勤,田立德,孙维贞,达普索冰芯积累量记录和过去400a来印度夏季风降水变化。中国科学,2000,30(6):619-627
姚檀栋,焦克勤,杨梅学,古里雅冰芯中过去400a降水变化研究。自然科学进展。1999,9(12):1161-1165
姚檀栋,谢自楚,武筱舲,Thompson L G,敦德冰帽中的小冰期气候记录。中国科学(B辑),1990,(11):1196-1201
袁道先,刘再华,碳循环与岩溶地质环境。科学出版社,2003,95-175
袁林,西北灾荒史。兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1994
袁玉江,李江风,胡汝骥。刘潮海,焦克勤,李忠勤,用树木年轮重建天山中部近350a来的降水量。冰川冻土,2001,23(1):34-40
曾礼,武都县志。北京:生活读书新知三联书店,1998,193-200
张德二。Demaree G,1743年华北夏季极端高温:相对温暖气候背景下的历史炎夏事件研究。科学通报,2004a,49(21):2204-2210
张德二,Pao K Wang,18世纪长江下游梅雨活动的复原研究。中国科学(B),1990,(12):1333-1339
张德二,李小泉,梁有叶,中国近五百年早涝分布图集的再续补(1993～2000年)。应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384
张德二,刘传志,北京1724～1903年夏季月温度序列的重建。科学通报,1986,(8):597-599
张德二,刘传志,江剑明,中国东部6区域近1000年干湿序列的重建和气候跃变分析。第四纪研究,1997,(1):1-11
张德二,刘月巍,北京清代“晴雨录”降水记录的再研究。第四纪研究。2002,22(3):199-208
张德二,王宝贯,18世纪长江下游梅雨活动的复原研究。中国科学(B辑),1990,(12):1333-1339
张德二,王丽华,孙霞,由历史文献记载反演逐年网格点降水量距平场——气候史料客观定量研 究的新探讨。第四纪研究,2003,23(2):177-183
张德二,中国历史气候记录揭示的千年干湿变化和重大干旱事件。科技导报,2004b,(8):47-49
张德二,中国历史文献中的高分辨古气候记录。第四纪研究,1995,(1):75-81
张德二,中国三千年气象记录总集。南京:江苏教育出版社,2004c
张恩楼,沈吉,王苏民,夏威岚,金章东,青海湖近900年来气候环境演化的湖泊沉积记录。湖泊科学,2002,14(1):32-38
张恩楼,沈吉,王苏民,尹宇,朱育新,夏威岚,近0.9ka来青海湖湖水盐度的定量恢复。科学通报,2004,49(7):697-701
张汉松,明代水早灾周期的初步探讨。气象学报,1944,18
张瑾镕,清代档案中的气象资料。历史档案,1982,(2):100-104
张美良,程海,林玉石,覃嘉铭,覃嘉铭,朱晓燕,冉景丞,杨琰,陈会明,Edwards R L,贵州荔波地区2000年来石笋高分辨率的气候记录。沉积学报,2006,24(3):339-348
张丕远,葛全胜,刘啸雷,近2000年来我国旱涝气候空间分布的变化和突变的分析,见:85-913项目02课题论文编委会编,气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文(一)。北京:气象出版社,1996,182-90
张丕远,葛全胜,张时煌,刘啸雷,2000年来我国旱涝气候演化的阶段性和突变。第四纪研究,1997,1:12-20
张丕远,王铮,刘啸雷,张时煌,中国近2000年气候演化的阶段性。中国科学(B辑),1994,24(9):998-1008
张丕远,王铮,中国近2000年来气候演化的阶段性。中国科学(B辑),1994,24(9)998-1008
张丕远,中国历史气候变化。济南:山东科学技术出版社,1996,195-440
张时煌,张丕远,降水日数、降水等级与北京260年降水量序列的重建,见:张翼等主编,气候变化及其影响。北京:气象出版社,1993,28-34
张永香,勾晓华,胡文东,彭剑峰,刘普幸。树轮记录的贺兰山区近百年来的干旱事件。生态学报,2005,25(8):2121-2126
章程,袁道先,洞穴滴石石笋与陆地古环境记录研究进展。地球科学进展,2001,16(3):374-381
章新平.姚檀栋,施维林,李忠勤,古里雅冰芯中小冰期以来的气候变化记录。湖南师范大学自然科学学报,1998,22(1):80-84
章新平,姚檀栋,我国降水中δ~(18)O的分布特点。地理学报,1998,53:356-363
赵会霞,郑景云,葛全胜,1755、1849年苏皖地区重大洪涝事件复原分析,气象科学,2004,24(4):460-467
郑景云,葛全胜,郝志新,田砚宇,1736～1999年西安与汉中地区年冬季平均气温序列重建。地理研究,2003,22(3):343-348
郑景云,郝志新,狄小春,历史环境变化数据库的建设与应用。地理研究,2002,21(2):146-154
郑景云,郝志新,葛全胜,山东1736年来逐季降水重建及其初步分析。气候与环境研究,2004,9(4):551-566
郑景云,王绍武,中国过去2000年气候变化的评估。地理学报,2005,60(1)21-31
郑景云,张丕远,葛全胜,满志敏,过去2000a中国东部干湿分异的百年际变化。自然科学进展,2001,11(1):65-70
郑景云,张丕远,周玉孚,利用旱涝县次建立历史时期早涝指数序列的试验。地理研究,1993,12(3):1-9
郑淑惠,侯发高,倪葆龄,我国大气降水的氢氧稳定同位素研究。科学通报,1983,(13):801-806
郑斯中,广东小冰期的气候及其影响。科学通报,1982,27(5):302-304
郑斯中,张福春,龚高法,我国东南地区近两千年气候湿润状况的变化。见:中央气象局研究所编,气候变迁和超长期预报文集。北京:科学出版社,1977,29-32
中央气象局气象科学研究所等,我国华北及东北地区近五百年旱涝演变的研究,见中央气象局研究所编《气候变迁和超长期预报文集》。科学出版社,1977,164-170
中央气象局气象科学研究院,中国近500年早涝分布图集,北京:地图出版社,1981:1-332
周杰,Hanson G,新仙女木时期东亚夏季风降水不稳定的证据。科学通报,1999,44(2):205-208
周清波,张丕远,王铮等,合肥地区1736～1991年冬季平均温度序列的重建。地理学报,1994,49(4):332-337
竺可桢,中国近5000年来气候变化的初步研究。中国科学,1973,(1):168-189
竺可桢,中国历史上气候之变迁。东方杂志,1925,22(3)
Ammann C M,Joos F,Schimel D S,Otto-Bliesner B L,Tomas R A.Solar influence on climate during the past millennium:Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model.PNAS,2007,104(10):3713-3718
AraguAs-AraguAs L,Froehlich K,Rozanski K.Stable isotope composition of precipitation over Southeast Asia.J Geophys Res,1998,103:28721-28742
Asmerom Y,Polyak V,Burns S,Rassmussen J.Solar forcing of Holocene climate:New insights from a speleothem record,southwestern United States.Geology,2007,35(1):1-4
Bar-Matthews M,Ayalon A,Kaufinan A.Late Quaternary palaeoclimate in the Eastern Mediterranean region from stable isotope analysis of speleothems at Soreq Cave,Israel.Quaternary Research,1997,47:155-168
Beer J,Mende W,Stellmacher R.The role of the Sun in climate forcing.Quaternary Science Reviews,2000,19(1-5):403-415
Beynen P E V,Asmerom Y,Polyak V,Soto L,Polk J S.Variable intensity of teleconnections during the late Holocene insubtropical North America from an isotopic study of speleothem from Florida.Geophys Res Lett,2007,34,L18703,doi:10.1029/2007GL031046
Bond G,Kromer B,Beer J,Muscheler R,Evans M,Showers W,Hoffmann S,Lotti-Bond R,Hajdas I,Bonani G.Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene.Science,2001,294:2130-2136
Bradley R S.High Resolution Record of Past Climate from Monsoon Asia,The Last 2000 Years and Beyond,Recommendations for Research,PAGES Workshop Report,Series 93-1,1993,1-24
Broecker W S.A preliminary evaluation of uranium series in equilibrium as a tool for absolute age measurement on marine carbonates.Journal of Geophysics Research,1963,68:2817-2834
Bryson R A,Murray T J.Climates of Hunger.Madison:Univ Wisconsin Press,1977,171
Burns S J,Fleitmann D,Mudelsee M,Neff U,Matter A,Mangini A.A 780-year annually resolved record of Indian Ocean monsoon precipitation from a speleothem from south Oman.J Geophys Res,2002,107(D20):4434,doi:10.1029/2001JD001281
Burns S J,Matter A,Frank N,Mangini A.Speleothem-based Paleoclimate record from northern Oman,Geology,1998,26(6):499-502
Chan J C L, Zhou W. PDO, ENSO and the early summer monsoon rainfall over south China. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32(8): L08810, doi: 10.1029/2004GL022015
Chang C P, Zhang Y, Li T. Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTs, Part I. Roles of the subtropical ridge. J Climate, 2000, 13:4310-4325
Chen S T, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Liu D B, Cheng H, Edwards R L. A possible Younger Dryas-type event during Asian monsoonal Termination 3. Science in China (Series D), 2006,49(9): 982-990
Cheng H, Edward R L, Hoff J, Gallup C D, Richards D A, Asmerom Y. The half-lives of uranium-234 and thorium-230. Chemical Geology, 2000,169(1):17-33
Cheng H, Edwards R L, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Ming Y F, Kelly M J, Wang X F , Gallup C D, Liu W G. A penultimate glacial monsoon record from Hulu Cave and two-phase glacial terminations.Geology, 2006, 34(3): 217-220
COHMAP Members. Climatic changes of the last 18000 years: observations and model simulations.Science, 1988,241 (4868/4869): 1043-1052
Cowie J. Climate and Human Change, Disaster or Opportunity? New York: Parthenon Publishing,1998
Craig H. Isotopic variations in meteoric waters. Science, 1961, 133: 1702-1703
Crowley T J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 2000,289:270-277
Cruz F W J, Burns S J, Karmann I, et al., Isolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 11600 years in subtropical Brazil. Nature, 2005,434: 63-66
Dansgaard W. Stable isotopes in precipitation. Tellus, 1964,16 (4): 436-468
Ding Y H, Chan J C L. The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2005,89 (1-4): 117-142
Ding Y H, Li C Y, Liu Y J. Overview of the south china sea monsoon experiment. Advance in Atmospheric Sciences, 2004,21: 343-360
Doral A J, Edwards R L, Ito E, Gonzalez L A. Climatic and vegetation history of the mid-continent from 75 to 25 ka: A speleothem record from Crevice Cave, Missouri, USA. Science, 1998, 282:1871-1874
Dugam S S, Kakade S B, Verma R K. Interannual and long-term variability in the North Atlantic oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Theor Appl Climatol, 1997, 58: 21-29
Duplessy J C, Overpeck J. The PAGES/ CLIVAR INTERSECTION —Providing paleoclimatic perspective needed to understand climate variability and predictability, Coordinated research objectives of the IGBP and WCRP programs, Venice, Italy, 1994, 9
Dykoski C A, Edwards R L, Cheng H. A high-resolution, absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,China.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2005,233:71-86
Dykoski C A,Edwards R L,Cheng H,Yuan D X,Cai Y J,Zhang M L,Lin Y S,Qing J M,An Z S,Revenaugh J.A high-resolution,absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave,China.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2005,233:71-86
Eddy J A.Past Global Changes Project,Proposed Implementation Plans for Research Activities,Global Change Report No.19,Sweden,Stockholm,IGBP.1992,1-112
Edwards R L,Chen J H,Wasserburg G J.~(238)U-~(234)U-~(230)Th-~(232)Th systematic and the precise measurement of time over the past 500,000 years.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,1987,81:175-192
Edwards R L,Gallup D G,Cheng H.Uranium-series dating of marine and lacus trine carbonates.In:Bourdon B,Henderson G M,Lundstrom C C,et al.eds.Review in Mineralogy and Geochemistry (52):Uranium-series Geochemistry.Washington:the Mineralogical Society of America,2003,363-405
Epstein S,Buchsbaum R,Lowenstam H A,Urey H C.Carbonate-water isotopic temperature scale.Bulletin of the Geological Society of America.1951,62(4):417-425
Epstein S,Buchsbaum R,Lowenstam H A,Urey H C.Revised carbonate-water isotopic temperature scale.Bulletin of the Geological Society of America.1953,64(11):1315-1326
Fleitmanna D,Burns SJ,Mudelsee M,Neff U,Kramers J,Magini A,Matter A.Holocene forcing of the Indian Monsoon recorded in a stalagmite high-resolution speleothem δ~(18)O record from southern Oman.Science,2003,300:1737-1739
Fleitmanna D,Stephen J B,Neff U,Mudelsee M,Magini A,Matter A.Palaeoclimatic interpretation of high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles derived from annually laminated speleothems from Southern Oman.Quat Sci Rev,2004,23:935-945
Fleitmanna D.,Burns S J,Mangini M,Kramers J,Villa I,Neff U,Al-Subbary A A,Buettner A,Hippler D,Matter A.Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen(Socotra),Quaternary Science Reviews,2007,26:170-188
Fritz P,Drimmie R J,Frappe S K,O'Shea K,The isotopic composition of precipitation and groundwater in Canada.In:Isotope Techniques in Water Resources Development.International Atomic Energy Association,Vienna,1987,539-550
Genty D,Blamart D,Ouahdi R,Gilmour M,Baker A,Jouzel J,Van-Exter S.Precise dating of Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations in western Europe from stalagmite data.Nature,2003,421:833-837
Gupta A K,Anderson D M,Overpeck J T.Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean.Nature,2003,421:354-57
Gupta A K, Das M, Anderson D M. Solar influence on the Indian summer monsoon during the Holocene.Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32: 1-4
Haigh J D. Climate variability and the influence of the Sun. Science, 2001, 294: 2109-2111
Haigh J D. The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 1996, 272: 981-984
Hans E G. Applications of magnetic sector ICP-M Singeochemistry. Journal of Geochemical Exploration, 2002,75: 1-15
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glascoe J, Sato M . GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J Geophys Res,1999,104(D24): 30997-31022
Harmom R S, Land L S, Mitterer R M, Garrett P, Schwarcz H P, Larson G J. Bermuda sea level during the last interglacial. Nature, 1981,289:481-483
He Y Q, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Cheng H. High resolution stalagmite δ~(18)O record over the past 1000 year from Dongge Cave in Guizhou. Chin Sci Bull, 2005, 50(10): 1003-1008
Henderson G M, Caving in to new chronologies. Science, 2006,313: 620-622
Hendy C H, Wilson A T. Palaeoclimatic data from speleothem. Nature, 1968, 216: 48-51
Hendy C H, Wilson A T. Palaeoclimatic data from speleothems. Nature, 1968,216:48-51
Hendy C H. The isotopic geochemistry of speleothems—I. The calculation of the effects of different modes of formation on the isotopic composition of speleothems and their applicability as paleoclimate indicators. Geochimi Cosmochimi Acta, 1971,35: 801-824
Hesterberg R, Siegenthaler U. Production and stable isotopic geochemistry of speleothems. In: Fritz P.Fontes J C, eds. Handbook of environmental isotope geochemistry. Elsevire, Amsterdam, 1986,271-303
Hesterberg R, Siegenthaler U. Production and stable isotopic. Composition of CO_2 in a soil near Bern,Switzerland. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 1991,43:197-205
Hu F, Kaufman D, Yongji S, Nelson D, Shemesg A, Huang Y, Tian J, Bond G, Clegg B, Brown T. Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic. Science, 2003, 301:1890-1893
Hughes M K. A preliminary reconstruction of rainfall in north central China since AD1600 from tree ring density and width. Qua Res, 1994,42: 88-99
Hulme M, Barrow E M, Arnell N W, Harrison P A, Johns T C, Downing T E. Relative impacts of human induced climate change and natural climate variability. Nature, 1999, 397:688-691
Johnson K R, Ingram B L, Warren D S, Zhang P Z. East Asian summer monsoon variability during marine isotope stage 5 based on speleothem δ~(18)O records from Wanxiang Cave, central China.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 2006, 236: 5-19
Johnson K R, Ingram B L. Spatial and temporal variability in the stable isotope systematics of modern precipitation in China:Implication for paleoclimate reconstructions.Earth Planet Sci Lett,2004,220(3-4):365-377
Jones P D,Moberg A.Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations:An extensive revision and an update to 2001.J Climate,2003,16:206-223
Jones P D,New M,Parker D E,Martin S,Rigor I G.Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years.Reviews of Geophysics,1999,37(2):173-199
Jouzel J,Froehlich K,Schotterer U.Deuterium and oxyen-18 in present-day precipitation:data and modeling.Journal of Hydrological Sciences,1997,42(5):747-763
Krishnan R,Sugi M.Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.Clim Dyn,2003,21:233-242
Lamb H H.Climate,Present,Past and Future.London:Methuen,1977,835
Lauritzen S E.High-resolution paleotemoerature proxy record for the last interglaciation based on Norwegian speleothems.Quaternary Research,1995,43:133-146
Li H C,Ku T L,Stott L D.Applications of interammual-resolution stable isotope records of speleothem:Climatic changes in Beijing and Tianjin,China during the past 500 years-the δ~(18)O record.1998,Science in China(Series D),28(4):362-368
Li J P,Zeng Q C.A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons.Adv Atmos Sci,2003,20:299-302
Li J P,Zeng Q C.A new monsoon index,its interannual variability and relation with monsoon precipitation.Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(3):351-365
Li J P,Zeng Q C.Aunified monsoon index.Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(8):1-4
Liu S M.Changing Climate of China in Historical Time.Taiwan:Commercial Book Publishers,1982.76-124
Liang E Y,Shao X M,Kong Z C,Lin J X.The extreme drought in the 1920s and its effect on tree growth deduced from tree ring analysis:a case study in North China.Annals of Forest Science,2003,60(2):145-152
Ma Z G,Fu C B.Evidences of Drying Trend in the Global During the later Half of 20th Century and Their Relationship with Large-Scale Climate Background.Science in China(Series D),2007,50(5):776-788
Mann M E,Bradley R S,Hughes M K.Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries.Nature,1998,392:779-787
Mann M E,Jones P D.Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.Geophysical Research Letters,2003,30(15):1820,doi:10.1029/2003GL017814
Mann M E,Jones P D.Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia.Geophys Res Letts,2003, 30 (15): 18-20
Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Francis R C.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 1997, 78: 1069-1079
Mantua N J, Hare S T. The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr, 2002,58: 35-44
Mayewski P A, Rohling E E, Stager J C, Stager J C, Karlen W, Maasch K A, Meeker L D, Meyerson E A, Gasse F, Kreveld S V, Holmgren K, Lee-Thorp J, Rosqvist G, Rack F, Staubwasser M,Schneider R R, Steig E J. Holocene climate variability. Quat Res, 2004,62: 243-255
McCrea J M. On the isotopic chemistry of carbonates and a paleotemperature scale. J Chem Phys,1950,18: 849-857
McDermott F, Mattey D P, Hawkesworth C, Centennial-scale Holocene climate variability revealed by a high-resolution speleothem δ~(18)O record form SW Ireland. Science, 2001,294: 1328-1331
Meehl G A, Washington W M, Wigley T M L, Arblaster J M, Dai A. Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century. J Climate, 2003, 16: 426-444
Muscheler R, Joos F, Beer J, Muller S A, Vonmoos M, Snowball I. Solar activity during the last 1000yr inferred from radionuclide records, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2007,doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.07.012
Neff U, Burns S J, Mangini A, Mudelsee M, Fleitmann D, Matter A. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago. Nature, 2001,411:290-293
O'Neil J R, Adami L H and Epstein S. Revised value for the ~(18)O fractionation factor between H_2O and CO_2 at 25℃. United States Geological Survey Research, 1975, (3): 623-624
O'Neil J R, Clayton R N, Mayeda T K. Oxygen isotope fractionation in divalent metal carbonates.Journal of Chemical Physics, 1969,51:5547-5558
Overpeck J, Anderson D, Trumbore S, Prell W. The southwest Indian Monsoon over the last 18000 years.Climate Dynamics, 1996,12 (3): 213-225
Overpeck J, Trenberth K. Drought Summary. In: CLIVAR/PAGES/IPCC Workshop. A multi-millennia perspective on drought and implications for the future. Tucson, AZ, USA: November,2003, 18-21
PAGES. Paleoclimates of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Pages Series 9521. Bern: Pages Press, 1995
Partin J W, Cobb K M, Adkins J F, Clark B, Fernandez D P. Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific
Paulsen D E, Li H C, Ku T L. Climate variability in central China over the last 1270 years revealed by high-resolution stalagmite records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2003,22: 691-701
Peterson T C, Vose R S. An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1997, 78: 2837-2849
Ponte L. The Cooling. Englewood: Prentice Hall, 1976,306
Rind D. The Sun's role in climate variations. Science, 2002,296:673-677
Rozanski K, AraguAs-AraguAs L, Gonfiantini R. Isotopic patterns in the modern global precipitation.In: Swart P K, eds. Climate change in continental isotopic records. Amer Geophys Union, USA Monograph 1993,78, 1-36
Savin S M, Yeh H W. Stable isotopes in ocean sediments, in Emiliani C. eds. The Sea, The Oceanic lithosphere: Wiley-Interscience, 1981,7: 1521-1554
Schwarcz H P, Ford D C. Continental Pleistocene climatic variations from speleothem age and isotope data. Science, 1974,184: 893-895
Schwarcz H P, Harmon R S, Thompson P, Ford D C. Stable isotope studies of fluid inclusions in speleothems and their paleoclimatic signicance. Geochemica et Cosmochemica Acta, 1976, 40:657-665
Shackleton N J. Oxygen isotope analyses and Pleistocene temperatures re-assessed, Nature, 1967, 215:15-17
Shindell D T, Schmidt G A, Mann M E. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum. Science, 2001,294: 2149-2152
Shindell D, Rind D, Balachandran N. Solar Cycle variability, ozone, and Climate. Science, 1999, 284:305-308
Siegenthaler U. Stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in the water cycle, in JSger E and Hunziker J C eds, Lectures in Isotope Geology, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 1979,264-273
Sinha A, Cannariato K G, Stott L D, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Yadava M G, Ramesh R, Singh I B. A 900-year (600 to 1500AD) record of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation from the core monsoon zone of India. Geophys Res Lett, 2007,34, L16707, doi: 10.1029/GL030431
Soon W, Baliunas S. Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years. Climate Res,2003,23: 89-110
Stuivel M, Reimer P J, Braziunas T F. High-resolution radiocarbon age calibration for terrestrial and marine samples. Radiocarbon. 1998,40(3): 1127-1151
Tan M, Liu T S, Hou J Z. Cyclic rapid warming on centennial-scale revealed by a 2650-year stalagmite record of warm season temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003,30(12): 1617-620
Tett S F B, Betts R, Crowley T J, Gregory J, Johns T C, Jones A, Osbom T J, Ostrom E, Roberts D L,Woodage M J. The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcing on climate and hydrology since 1550. Clim Dyn, 2007, 28(1): 3-34
Urey H C. The thermodynamic properties of isotopic substances. Journal of the Chemical Society, 1947,562-581
Vuille M, Werner C M, Bradley R S, Keimig F. Stable isotopes in precipitation in the Asian monsoon region Journal Of Geophysical Research, 2005,10(D23108):doi:10.1029/2005JD006022
Wang B, Ding Q H. Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophys Res Lett,2006, 33, L06711, doi: 10.1029/2005GL025347
Wang L, Sarnthein M, Erlenkeuser H, Grimalt J, Grootes P. East Asian monsoon climate during the late Pleistocene: high-resolution sediment records from the South China Sea. Marine Geology, 1999a,1156:245-284
Wang L, Sarnthein, M, Erlenkeuser H, Grootes P M, Grimalt J O, Pelejero C, Linck G, 1999b, Holocene variations in Asian monsoon moisture: a bidecadal sediment record from the South China Sea.Geophysical Research Letters, 26,2889-2892
Wang P K, Zhang D. Reconstruction of the 18th century summer precipitation of Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou, China In: Bradley R S, Jones P D (eds.), Climate Since AD1500. London & New York: Routledge,1992.184-209
Wang X F, Augusto S A, Edwards R L, Edwards R L, Cheng H, Cristalli P S, Smart P L, Richards D A,Shen C Z. Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies. Nature, 2004,432: 740-743
Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, An Z S, Wu J Y, Shen C C, Dorale JA. A high-resolution absolute dated Late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China. Science, 2001,294: 2345-2348
Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Kong X G, Shao X H, Chen S T, Wu J Y, Jiang X Y, Wang X F,An Z S. Millennial-and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224000 years. Nature, 2008, 451:1090-1093
Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, He Y Q, Kong X G, An Z S, Wu J Y, Kelly M J, Dykoski C A, Li X D. The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate. Science,2005,308: 854-857
Partin J W, Cobb K M, Adkins J F, Clark B, Fernandez D P. Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum. Nature, 2007,499(27): 452-456
Webster P J, Magana V, Palmer T N, Magana V O, Palmer T N, Shukla J, Tomas R A, Yanai M,Yasunari T. Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res,1998, 103: 14451-14510
Weng H, Lau K M, Xue Y. Multi-scale summer rainfall variability over China and its long-term link to global sea surface temperature variability. J Meteor Soc Japan, 1999,77: 845-857
Wiles G C, D'Aririgo R D, Villalb R, Calkin P E, Barclay D J. Century-scale solar variability and Alaskan temperature change over the past millennium, Geophysical Research letters, 2004, 31,L15203,doi: 10.1029/2004GL020050
Winograd I J, Coplen T B, Landwehr J M, Riggs A C, Ludwig K R, Szabo B J, Kolesar P T, Revesz K M.Continuous 500,000-year climatic record from vein calcite in Devils Hole,Nevada.Science,1992,258:255-260
Winograd I J,Ludwig K R.Comment on "High Resolution Paleotemperature Proxy Record for theLast Interglaciation Based on Norwegian Speleothems" by Stein-Erik Lauritzen.Quaternary Research,1996,45:102
Winograd I J.A 250,000-year climatic record from Great Basin vein calcite.Implications for Milankovitch theory.Science,1988,242:1275-1280
Wu J Y,Shao X H,Kong X G,Wang Y J.Imprint of solar activity on Nanjing stalagmite annual layer thickness sequence dur-ing the Last Glacial Maximum.Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(4):441-447
Yadava M G,Ramesh R,Pant G B.Past monsoon rainfall variations in peninsular India recorded in a 331-year-old speleothem.The Holocene,2004,14(4):517-524
Yang B,Braeuning A,Johnson K R.General characteristics of temperature variation in China during the last two millennia.Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(9),doi:10.1029/2001GL014485
Yang X L,Zhang P Z,Chen F H,Huh C A,Li H C,Cheng H,Johnson K R,Liu J H,An C L.Modern stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition and its implications of climatic change from a high-elevation cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past 50 years.Chin Sci Bull,2007,52(9):1238-1247
Yuan D X,Cheng H,Edwards R L.Timing,duration and transition of the last interglacial Asian Monsoon.Science,2004,304:575-578
Zhang D,Jim C Y,Lin C S,He Y Q,Lee F.Climate change,social unrest and dynastic transition in an-cient China.Chinese Science Bulletin,2005,50(2):137-144
Zhang J C.Reconstruction of climate in china for historical times.Beijing:Science Press,1998,1-174
Zhang J W,Jin M,Chen F H et al.High-resolution precipitation variations in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau over the last 800 years documented by sediment cores of Qinghai Lake.Chinese Science Bulletin 2003,48(14):1451-1456
Zhang J W,Jin M,Chert F H,Battarbee R W,Henderson A C G.High-resolution precipitation variations in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau over the last 800 years documented by sediment cores of Qinghai Lake.Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(14):1451-1456
Zhang P Z,Johnson K R,Chen Y M,Chen F H,Lynn I,Zhang X L,Zhang C J,Wang S M,Pang F S,Long L D.Modern systematic and environmental significance of stable isotopic variations in Wanxiang Cave,Wudu,China.Chin Sci Bull,2004,49(15):1649-1652
Zhang Y,Wallace J M,Battisti D S.ENSO-Iike interdecadal variability:1900—93.J Climate,1997,10:1004-1020
Zheng J Y,Hao Z X,Di X C.Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.Science in China(Series D),2005,48(12):2182-2193
Zhou S Q,Nakawo M,Sakai A,Matsuda Y,Duan K Q,Pu J C.Water isotope variations in the snow pack and summer precipitation at July 1 Glacier,Qilian Mountains in northwest China.Chinese Science Bulletin 2007,52(21):2963-2972
Zhou W,Li C Y,Chart J C L.The interdecadal variations of the summer monsoon rainfall over South China.Meteorol Atmos Phys,2006,doi:10.1007/S00703-006-0184-9
蔡演军,石笋记录的最近5万年印度季风气候。2003,博士论文,北京,中国科学院地球环境研究所
陈家其,近二千年中国重大气象灾害气候变化背景初步分析。自然灾害学报,1996,5(2):18-27
陈业新,地震与汉代荒政。中南民族学院学报(哲学社会科学版),1997,(3):88-91
程海,艾思本,王先锋,汪永进,孔兴功,袁道先,张美良,林玉石,覃嘉铭,冉景丞,中国南方石笋氧同位素记录的重要意义。第四纪研究,2005,25(2):157-163
丁仲礼,刘东生,晚更新世东亚古季风变化动力机制的概念模型。科学通报,1998,43(2):122-132
段克勤,王宁练,李月芳,孙维贞,青藏高原达普索冰芯中积累量与太阳活动。科学通报,2000,45(1):75-78
葛全胜,郑景云,满志敏,方修琦,张丕远,过去2000年中国东部冬半年温度变化序列重建及初步分析。地学前缘,2002,9(2):169-181
葛全胜,王顺兵,郑景云,过去5000年中国气温变化序列重建。自然科学进展,2006,16(6):689-696
葛全胜,张丕远,历史文献中气候信息的评价。地理学报,1990,45(1):24-29
葛全胜,郑景云,方修琦,满志敏,张雪芹,张丕远,王维强,过去2000年中国东部冬半年温度变化。第四纪研究,2002,22(2):166-173
葛全胜,郑景云,刘键,过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期。气候变化研究进展,2006,3(3):108-112
龚高法,Hameed S,近2000年来中国温度变化与湿润状况变化之间的关系。见:张翼等主编,气候变化及其影响。北京:气象出版社,1993,72-77
国家自然科学基金委员会,全球变化:中国面临的机遇和挑战。北京:高等教育出版社,1998,61-75
洪阿实,彭子成,李平,陈承惠,许志峰,王明亮,福建宁化天鹅洞石笋晚第四纪同位素古温度研究。地球化学,1995,24(2):138-145
洪业汤,刘东生,姜洪波,Zhou L,Beer J,朱泳煊,冷雪天,李汉鼎,秦小光,洪冰,王羽,林庆华,曾毅强,太阳辐射驱动气候变化的泥炭氧同位素证据。中国科学(D辑),1999,29(6):527-531
侯甬坚,祝一志,历史记录提取近5～2.7ka黄河中下游平原重要气候事件与其环境意义。海洋地质与第四纪地质,2000,20(4):23-29
黄嘉佑,北京地区季节旱涝长期变化分析。水科学进展,1992,3(1):59-64
黄磊,邵雪梅,青海德令哈地区近400年来的降水量变化与太阳活动。第四纪研究,2005,25(2):184-192
姜彤,施雅风,气候变暖、长江水灾与可能损失。地球科学进展,2003,18(2):277-284
姜彤,张强,王苏民,近1000年长江中下游旱涝与气候变化关系。第四纪研究,2004,24(5):518-524
蒋德隆,严济远,长江下游地区夏季早涝演变趋势的研究。地理学报,1965,31康沛竹,灾荒与太平天国革命的失败。北方论丛,1995,6:51-55
李彬,袁道先,林玉石,桂林地区降水、洞穴滴水及现代洞穴碳酸盐氧碳同位素研究及其环境意义。中国科学(D辑),2000,30(1):81-87
李峰,何金海,北太平洋海温异常与东亚夏季风相互作用的年代际变化。热带气象学报,2000,16(3)260-271
李红春,顾德隆,Dortg Paulsen,王非。陈文寄,尹功明,程海,Edwards R L,陕南石笋稳定同位素记录中的古气候和古季风信息。地震地质,2000,22:63-78
李强,刘禹,蔡秋芳,孙军艳等,山西宁武地区1686年以来年降水重建。第四纪研究,2006,26(6):999-1006
李兆元,吴素良,杨文峰,陈建文,王玉玺,余兴,西安地区旱涝气候的长期变化。气候与环境研究,1997,2(4):356-360
粱尔源,邵雪梅,黄磊,王丽丽,中国中西部地区树木年轮对20世纪20年代干旱灾害的指示。自然科学进展,2004,14(4):469-474
刘启明,贵州凉风洞石笋的古气候记录与古生态环境意义。2003,博士论文,中国科学院地球化学研究所
刘晓宏,秦大河,邵雪梅,赵良菊,陈拓,任贾文,西藏林芝地区近350a来降水变化及突变分析,冰川冻土,2003,25(4):375-379
刘禹,Park W K,蔡秋芳,Seo J W,Jung H S,公元1840年以来东亚夏季风降水变化——以中国和韩国的树轮记录为例。中国科学,D辑,2003,33(6):543-549
刘禹.史江峰,Shishov V,Vaganov E,杨银科,蔡秋芳,孙军艳,王雷,Djanseitov I,以树轮晚材宽度重建公元1726年以来贺兰山北部5-7月降水量。科学通报,2004,49(3):265-269
卢壁,关于早涝的周期性问题。1961年4月9日人民日报。
鲁瑞洁,夏虹,腾格里沙漠南缘油松树轮宽度变化及其对气候因子的响应。中国沙漠,2006,26(3):399-402
马利民,刘禹,蔡秋芳,安芷生,贺兰山树轮晚材宽度记录中的降水量变化。海洋地质与第四纪 地质,2003,23(4):109-114
马柱国,邵丽娟,中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系。大气科学,2006,30(3)464-474
满志敏,光绪三年北方大旱的气候背景。复旦学报(社会科学版),2000,(6):28-35
聂红萍,清朝甘肃救灾措施。甘肃社会科学1999年论文辑刊:8-9
欧廷海,钱维宏,东亚季风边缘带上的植被变化。地球物理学报,2006,49(3):698-705
彭子成,王兆荣,孙卫东,高精度热电离质谱(TIMS)铀系法对第四纪标样年龄测定的研究。科学通报,1997,42(19):2090-2093
强明瑞,陈发虎,张家武,高尚玉,周爱锋,2ka来苏干湖沉积碳酸盐稳定同位素记录的气候变化,科学通报,2005,50(13):1385-1393
邵雪梅,黄磊,刘洪滨,梁尔源,方修琦,王丽丽,树轮记录的青海德令哈地区千年降水变化。中国科学D辑,2004,34(2):145-153
盛承禹,近五百年旱涝史料的几点初步分析,见中央气象局研究所主编《全国气候变化学术讨论会文集》,科学出版社,1981,36-45
施能,陈绿文,林振敏,2002,全球降水与区域性季风降水相关分析,气象科技,30(2):73-79
谭明.刘东生,秦小光等,北京石花洞全新世石笋微生长层与稳定同位素气候意义初步研究。中国岩溶,1997,16(1):1-10
谭明,刘东生,钟华,钟华,李铁英,赵树森,李红春,吕金波,鲁向阳,季风条件下全新世洞穴碳酸盐稳定同位素气候信息初步研究。科学通报,1997,42(12):1302-1306
汤绪,钱维宏,梁萍,东亚夏季风边缘带的气候特征。高原气象,2006,25(3):375-381
汤仲鑫,保定地区近五百年旱涝相对集中期分析,见中央气象局研究所编《气候变迁和超长期预报文集》,科学出版社,1977,45-49
唐锡仁,薄树人,河北省明清时期干旱情况的分析。地理学报,1962,28
汪品先,翦知缗,寻求高分辨率的古环境记录。第四纪研究,1999,(1):1-17
汪永进,南京石笋记录的末次冰期气候事件与全球对比。2000,博士论文,南京师范大学。
王华,李强,杨琰,覃嘉铭,冯玉梅,涂林玲,应启和,钙华测年中不同方法的对比研究。岩矿测试,2006,25(4):306-310
王培华,元代北方水旱灾害时空分布特点与申检体覆救灾措施。社会科学战线,1999,(3):143-149
王绍武,叶瑾琳,龚道溢,中国小冰期的气候。第四纪研究,1998,1:54-64
王绍武,赵宗慈,陈振华,公元950年～1991年的旱涝型。见:王绍武,黄朝迎著,长江黄河旱涝灾害发生规律及其经济影响的诊断研究。北京:气象出版社,1993,55-66
王绍武,赵宗慈,近500年我国旱涝史料的分析。地理学报,1979,34(4):329-341
王双怀,五千年来中国西部水环境的变迁,陕西师范大学学报,2004,33(5):5-13
王苏民,刘健,周静,中国小冰期盛期的气候环境。湖泊科学,2003,15(4)369-376
卫克勤,林瑞芬,论季风气候对我国雨水同位素组成的影响。地球化学,1994,23(1):33-41
武健伟,鲁瑞沽,赵廷宁,湖泊沉积记录的近500年来浑善达克沙地气候环境变化,中国水土保持科学,2004,2(4):42-47
谢义炳,清代水旱灾之周期研究,气象学报,1943,17
徐尔灏,论年雨量之常态。气象学报,1950,(21):17-34
许靖华,太阳气候饥荒与民族大迁移。中国科学(D辑),1998,28(4)366-384
严中伟,李兆春,马晓春,历史上10年～100年尺度气候跃变的分析。大气科学,1993,17(6):663-672
杨琰,袁道先,程海,高精度ICP-MS~(230)Th测年新技术及其在贵州衙门洞Yl石笋测年研究中的应用。中国岩溶,2006,25(2):89-94
杨泽荣,七十年前甘肃旱灾惨景的真实写照。档案,甘肃省档案馆,1999,(1):16
姚檀栋,段克勤,田立德,孙维贞,达普索冰芯积累量记录和过去400a来印度夏季风降水变化。中国科学,2000,30(6):619-627
姚檀栋,焦克勤,杨梅学,古里雅冰芯中过去400a降水变化研究。自然科学进展。1999,9(12):1161-1165
姚檀栋,谢自楚,武筱舲,Thompson L G,敦德冰帽中的小冰期气候记录。中国科学(B辑),1990,(11):1196-1201
袁道先,刘再华,碳循环与岩溶地质环境。科学出版社,2003,95-175
袁林,西北灾荒史。兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1994
袁玉江,李江风,胡汝骥。刘潮海,焦克勤,李忠勤,用树木年轮重建天山中部近350a来的降水量。冰川冻土,2001,23(1):34-40
曾礼,武都县志。北京:生活读书新知三联书店,1998,193-200
张德二。Demaree G,1743年华北夏季极端高温:相对温暖气候背景下的历史炎夏事件研究。科学通报,2004a,49(21):2204-2210
张德二,Pao K Wang,18世纪长江下游梅雨活动的复原研究。中国科学(B),1990,(12):1333-1339
张德二,李小泉,梁有叶,中国近五百年早涝分布图集的再续补(1993～2000年)。应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384
张德二,刘传志,北京1724～1903年夏季月温度序列的重建。科学通报,1986,(8):597-599
张德二,刘传志,江剑明,中国东部6区域近1000年干湿序列的重建和气候跃变分析。第四纪研究,1997,(1):1-11
张德二,刘月巍,北京清代“晴雨录”降水记录的再研究。第四纪研究。2002,22(3):199-208
张德二,王宝贯,18世纪长江下游梅雨活动的复原研究。中国科学(B辑),1990,(12):1333-1339
张德二,王丽华,孙霞,由历史文献记载反演逐年网格点降水量距平场——气候史料客观定量研 究的新探讨。第四纪研究,2003,23(2):177-183
张德二,中国历史气候记录揭示的千年干湿变化和重大干旱事件。科技导报,2004b,(8):47-49
张德二,中国历史文献中的高分辨古气候记录。第四纪研究,1995,(1):75-81
张德二,中国三千年气象记录总集。南京:江苏教育出版社,2004c
张恩楼,沈吉,王苏民,夏威岚,金章东,青海湖近900年来气候环境演化的湖泊沉积记录。湖泊科学,2002,14(1):32-38
张恩楼,沈吉,王苏民,尹宇,朱育新,夏威岚,近0.9ka来青海湖湖水盐度的定量恢复。科学通报,2004,49(7):697-701
张汉松,明代水早灾周期的初步探讨。气象学报,1944,18
张瑾镕,清代档案中的气象资料。历史档案,1982,(2):100-104
张美良,程海,林玉石,覃嘉铭,覃嘉铭,朱晓燕,冉景丞,杨琰,陈会明,Edwards R L,贵州荔波地区2000年来石笋高分辨率的气候记录。沉积学报,2006,24(3):339-348
张丕远,葛全胜,刘啸雷,近2000年来我国旱涝气候空间分布的变化和突变的分析,见:85-913项目02课题论文编委会编,气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文(一)。北京:气象出版社,1996,182-90
张丕远,葛全胜,张时煌,刘啸雷,2000年来我国旱涝气候演化的阶段性和突变。第四纪研究,1997,1:12-20
张丕远,王铮,刘啸雷,张时煌,中国近2000年气候演化的阶段性。中国科学(B辑),1994,24(9):998-1008
张丕远,王铮,中国近2000年来气候演化的阶段性。中国科学(B辑),1994,24(9)998-1008
张丕远,中国历史气候变化。济南:山东科学技术出版社,1996,195-440
张时煌,张丕远,降水日数、降水等级与北京260年降水量序列的重建,见:张翼等主编,气候变化及其影响。北京:气象出版社,1993,28-34
张永香,勾晓华,胡文东,彭剑峰,刘普幸。树轮记录的贺兰山区近百年来的干旱事件。生态学报,2005,25(8):2121-2126
章程,袁道先,洞穴滴石石笋与陆地古环境记录研究进展。地球科学进展,2001,16(3):374-381
章新平.姚檀栋,施维林,李忠勤,古里雅冰芯中小冰期以来的气候变化记录。湖南师范大学自然科学学报,1998,22(1):80-84
章新平,姚檀栋,我国降水中δ~(18)O的分布特点。地理学报,1998,53:356-363
赵会霞,郑景云,葛全胜,1755、1849年苏皖地区重大洪涝事件复原分析,气象科学,2004,24(4):460-467
郑景云,葛全胜,郝志新,田砚宇,1736～1999年西安与汉中地区年冬季平均气温序列重建。地理研究,2003,22(3):343-348
郑景云,郝志新,狄小春,历史环境变化数据库的建设与应用。地理研究,2002,21(2):146-154
郑景云,郝志新,葛全胜,山东1736年来逐季降水重建及其初步分析。气候与环境研究,2004,9(4):551-566
郑景云,王绍武,中国过去2000年气候变化的评估。地理学报,2005,60(1)21-31
郑景云,张丕远,葛全胜,满志敏,过去2000a中国东部干湿分异的百年际变化。自然科学进展,2001,11(1):65-70
郑景云,张丕远,周玉孚,利用旱涝县次建立历史时期早涝指数序列的试验。地理研究,1993,12(3):1-9
郑淑惠,侯发高,倪葆龄,我国大气降水的氢氧稳定同位素研究。科学通报,1983,(13):801-806
郑斯中,广东小冰期的气候及其影响。科学通报,1982,27(5):302-304
郑斯中,张福春,龚高法,我国东南地区近两千年气候湿润状况的变化。见:中央气象局研究所编,气候变迁和超长期预报文集。北京:科学出版社,1977,29-32
中央气象局气象科学研究所等,我国华北及东北地区近五百年旱涝演变的研究,见中央气象局研究所编《气候变迁和超长期预报文集》。科学出版社,1977,164-170
中央气象局气象科学研究院,中国近500年早涝分布图集,北京:地图出版社,1981:1-332
周杰,Hanson G,新仙女木时期东亚夏季风降水不稳定的证据。科学通报,1999,44(2):205-208
周清波,张丕远,王铮等,合肥地区1736～1991年冬季平均温度序列的重建。地理学报,1994,49(4):332-337
竺可桢,中国近5000年来气候变化的初步研究。中国科学,1973,(1):168-189
竺可桢,中国历史上气候之变迁。东方杂志,1925,22(3)