国际制度有效性研究
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摘要
国际制度有效性的研究是国际制度理论研究的一项基础性工作,也是全球治理理论的核心,国际制度有效性研究扩展和深化了对世界事务本质的理解。当前,国际制度已成为现实政治生活的普遍现象,国际制度不断扩散、拓展与深化。鉴于该项研究的理论及现实意义,需要对国际制度有效性进行全面、深入和系统的研究。过去近四十年来,在制度有效性研究方面,相关的理论建构及研究方法取得了显著的进步。不过,国际制度有效性研究也存在着不足和局限性。制度有效性的因果关系、路径方法、遵约研究、履行研究等方面的问题,限制了国际制度有效性研究的说服力。
因果关系的概念是包括人文学科在内的任何学科的核心概念之一。社会科学中的因果关系对国际关系理论产生了广泛的影响。因而,因果关系也是国际关系学者关注的重要领域,理性主义和建构主义在因果关系方面存在激烈的争论。不过,国际制度理论的预测乏善可陈,因果模型也很薄弱。目前,学术界从因果关系角度分析国际制度有效性显得非常缺乏。国际制度有效性研究必须寻求科学的方法,对因果关系给予明确的阐述,并详细说明导致这种结果的因果机制。
因果效应、因果机制与因果推论是从因果关系视角研究国际制度有效性的核心概念,其中,因果推论包含因果效应与因果机制。因而,因果效应与因果机制一起构成了国际制度有效性因果关系研究的核心。从因果关系的视角研究国际制度的有效性,包括了三个方面的内容：通过分析制度与效果的因果影响,探讨制度是否有效；通过分析原因与结果的因果机制,探讨制度如何有效；通过分析制度互动中因果机制所产生的复杂关系,探讨制度的因果联系。制度是否有效与定量方法密切相关,而制度如何有效则关涉定性案例分析。
论文的核心在于尝试建立国际制度有效性研究的框架,即从因果关系视角分析影响国际制度有效性的原因并衡量国际制度的结果。该框架涉及两个主要部分：一是影响因素,即通过权力、合法性与国内政治论述国际制度有效性的影响因素,这是国际制度有效性因果关系研究的重要方面,明确因果关系必须知晓影响制度作用发挥程度大小的因素。文章借鉴了内生变量和外生变量的操作方法,同时引入了干涉变量,试图对国际制度有效性问题的影响因素进行系统分析。在这一框架中,权力是一种外生变量,对制度作用的发挥具有决定性的意义,权力构成了制度运行的结构框架；合法性是一种内生变量,内化于制度的有效性,是有效性的必要条件；而国内政治是一种具有相对独立作用的干涉变量。由上述3个变量构建的国际制度有效性的理论分析框架为研究注入了活力。
二是衡量标准,即通过遵约、履行与国际制度有效性的复杂关系,论述由于因果关系的紊乱所造成的遵约悖论以及因果关系视角下履约可能的困境。遵约被国际关系学界用来衡量制度的因果影响,具有一定的客观性。但是,遵约与国际制度有效性之间并不具有必然的联系,遵约是对制度因果关系的误读。遵约研究对制度有效性的启示在于：应该慎重选择衡量结果的指标,从而准确评估制度对国家政策和行为的因果影响。只有考察履行才能清晰地把握为符合国际义务所导致的国家行为变化。为此,必须关注国家层面上的进程、结构、协议被执行的方式,通过专门议事领域国家的履行,更进一步把握因果机制的力度与方向。
在研究方法上,对比定性案例研究和定量方法的优缺点,将两种方法结合起来,通过对国际臭氧层保护制度的定性案例研究,分析国际制度有效性的影响因素；通过《长程越界空气污染公约》及《1988年氮氧化物议定书》的定量检验,论述遵约、履行与国际制度有效性间的因果关系。
论文研究的理论意义在于明确揭示出制度作用的发挥是复杂而间接的,而非简单而直接的,造成某一结果的因果路径是微妙的、错综复杂的。一方面,国际制度是影响某一事物特定结果的重要因素,在某些情况下甚至是关键性因素；另一方面,对于制度的作用给予不全则无的结论都是草率的。为了提升国际制度有效性,需要考虑到权力、国内政治以及合法性等因素,同时在运用遵约、履行衡量时也需要慎重。同时,该研究也具有很强的现实意义和政治色彩。对于发展中国家而言,需要计算参与国际组织的成本收益,掌握国际组织的相关规则并积极影响议题设置权。
The study of institutional effectiveness is a fundamental task of International Institutions Theory, and also is a cornerstone of Global Governance Theory. The Effectiveness of International Institutions (EⅡ) broadens and deepens the understanding to the essence of world affairs. Now, international institutions have become the usual facts of real politics, and international institutions also begin to diffuse, broaden and deepen. In view of the theoretical and realistic significance of EⅡ, it is necessary to make an all-sided, deep and systematic study. Nearly forty years passed, in the domain of effectiveness, the theoretical constructions and the research methods have reached great advancements. However, the study of EⅡhas also some shortcomings and confinements. The causal relations of institutional effectiveness, the ways and methods, the questions of compliance and implementation, all of which confine the persuasiveness of EⅡ.
The concept of causation is one of core notions for each science which includes the humanities. In the domain of social science, causation has huge influence on IR theory. Causation also becomes the important area which is focused by IR scholars. Rationalism and Constructivism have strong arguments about causation. However, the prediction of international institutions theory is low, and the model of cause and effect is also weak. Now, it is very short to explain EⅡby causation theory. It must seek for scientific methods to demonstrate the causation clearly, and enter into the details of causal mechanisms which form the outcomes.
Causal effect, causal mechanism and causal inference are the core notions to explain EⅡby causation theory. Causal inference includes causal effect and causal mechanism, so causal effect and causal mechanism consist of the corner of EⅡby causation theory. From the viewpoint of causation to study EⅡ, it includes three parts: through the causal effect between the institution and its effect to elucidate whether the institution is effective or not; through the causal mechanism between the cause and the outcome to discuss how the institution is effective; through the causal mechanism in institutional interplay to elucidate the causal relation of the institutions. The quantitative approach is used to study institution is effective or ineffective, and the qualitative approach is used to study how the institution is effective.
This dissertation tries to construct the framework in the domain of EⅡ. Th e framework argues the cause of institutional effectiveness and evaluates the consequence through the way of causation. The framework includes two aspects:on the one hand, it refers to the influence factors, which are elucidated by power, legitimacy and domestic politics. Influence factors are the important aspects when EⅡis discussed. It recognizes that the factors of institutional function are necessary to know causation. The paper borrows endogenous variables and exogenous variables, and inducts into the intervening variables. It tries to interpret systematically the influence factors of EⅡ. The author views power as endogenous variable, which has decidable meaning to institutional effects and constitutes the structure of efficient institution. Legitimacy is exogenous variable, which is the immanence and postulation of it. Domestic politics is intervening variable, which has something independence. The paper constructs the theoretical forms of EII by these three variables and provides a pathway for it.
On the other hand, it refers to the standards of evaluation, which is elucidated by the intricate relationships among compliance, implementation and EⅡ, which include the paradox of compliance by the disorder in causation and the difficulty in the process of implementation from the viewpoint of causation. IR scholars use compliance as a litmus test of the causal influence of institutions. While such tests offer a degree of objectivity, they do not necessarily confirm a relationship between compliance and EⅡ. Compliance then is a misreading of the institutional causal relationship. Compliance research does offer an important lesson for understanding the effectiveness of institutions:researchers must carefully select indicators in assessing causality so that they can accurately determine the causal impact of institutions on a state's policies and behavior. To discuss whether the institution is effective or ineffective and how the institution is effective, it must focus on the process, the construction and the way of the treaty being implemented. The implementation of a specific issue can grasp the strength and direction of causal mechanism.
Contrasting the differences of qualitative case studies and quantitative methods, the dissertation combines two approaches. It discusses the influence factors of EⅡby the International Ozone Layer Depletion Institutions; It discusses the causal relations among compliance, implementation and EⅡby the quantitative studies of The Convention on Long-Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution and the quantitative studies of The 1988 Sofia Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or Their Trans-boundary Fluxes.
The theoretical implication of this dissertation helps to expose the institutional influence clearly, which is not simple and direct, but intricate and indirect. So, the causal pathway to form one consequence is special and intricate. On the one hand, international institutions are the important factors which influence the specific consequence, and in some circumstances it constructs a major factor; on the other hand, it is hasty to gain the "all or nothing" conclusion. In order to improve EⅡ, it is necessity to think the influential factors, such as power, domestic politics and legitimacy, and it needs carefully to evaluate EⅡby the compliance and the implementation. In practice, it has strong realistic and political implications. According to the developing countries, it needs to think about the costs and benefits when they join into international organizations, to grasp the rules of international organizations, and to influence actively the issue-setting rights.
因果关系的概念是包括人文学科在内的任何学科的核心概念之一。社会科学中的因果关系对国际关系理论产生了广泛的影响。因而,因果关系也是国际关系学者关注的重要领域,理性主义和建构主义在因果关系方面存在激烈的争论。不过,国际制度理论的预测乏善可陈,因果模型也很薄弱。目前,学术界从因果关系角度分析国际制度有效性显得非常缺乏。国际制度有效性研究必须寻求科学的方法,对因果关系给予明确的阐述,并详细说明导致这种结果的因果机制。
因果效应、因果机制与因果推论是从因果关系视角研究国际制度有效性的核心概念,其中,因果推论包含因果效应与因果机制。因而,因果效应与因果机制一起构成了国际制度有效性因果关系研究的核心。从因果关系的视角研究国际制度的有效性,包括了三个方面的内容：通过分析制度与效果的因果影响,探讨制度是否有效；通过分析原因与结果的因果机制,探讨制度如何有效；通过分析制度互动中因果机制所产生的复杂关系,探讨制度的因果联系。制度是否有效与定量方法密切相关,而制度如何有效则关涉定性案例分析。
论文的核心在于尝试建立国际制度有效性研究的框架,即从因果关系视角分析影响国际制度有效性的原因并衡量国际制度的结果。该框架涉及两个主要部分：一是影响因素,即通过权力、合法性与国内政治论述国际制度有效性的影响因素,这是国际制度有效性因果关系研究的重要方面,明确因果关系必须知晓影响制度作用发挥程度大小的因素。文章借鉴了内生变量和外生变量的操作方法,同时引入了干涉变量,试图对国际制度有效性问题的影响因素进行系统分析。在这一框架中,权力是一种外生变量,对制度作用的发挥具有决定性的意义,权力构成了制度运行的结构框架；合法性是一种内生变量,内化于制度的有效性,是有效性的必要条件；而国内政治是一种具有相对独立作用的干涉变量。由上述3个变量构建的国际制度有效性的理论分析框架为研究注入了活力。
二是衡量标准,即通过遵约、履行与国际制度有效性的复杂关系,论述由于因果关系的紊乱所造成的遵约悖论以及因果关系视角下履约可能的困境。遵约被国际关系学界用来衡量制度的因果影响,具有一定的客观性。但是,遵约与国际制度有效性之间并不具有必然的联系,遵约是对制度因果关系的误读。遵约研究对制度有效性的启示在于：应该慎重选择衡量结果的指标,从而准确评估制度对国家政策和行为的因果影响。只有考察履行才能清晰地把握为符合国际义务所导致的国家行为变化。为此,必须关注国家层面上的进程、结构、协议被执行的方式,通过专门议事领域国家的履行,更进一步把握因果机制的力度与方向。
在研究方法上,对比定性案例研究和定量方法的优缺点,将两种方法结合起来,通过对国际臭氧层保护制度的定性案例研究,分析国际制度有效性的影响因素；通过《长程越界空气污染公约》及《1988年氮氧化物议定书》的定量检验,论述遵约、履行与国际制度有效性间的因果关系。
论文研究的理论意义在于明确揭示出制度作用的发挥是复杂而间接的,而非简单而直接的,造成某一结果的因果路径是微妙的、错综复杂的。一方面,国际制度是影响某一事物特定结果的重要因素,在某些情况下甚至是关键性因素；另一方面,对于制度的作用给予不全则无的结论都是草率的。为了提升国际制度有效性,需要考虑到权力、国内政治以及合法性等因素,同时在运用遵约、履行衡量时也需要慎重。同时,该研究也具有很强的现实意义和政治色彩。对于发展中国家而言,需要计算参与国际组织的成本收益,掌握国际组织的相关规则并积极影响议题设置权。
The study of institutional effectiveness is a fundamental task of International Institutions Theory, and also is a cornerstone of Global Governance Theory. The Effectiveness of International Institutions (EⅡ) broadens and deepens the understanding to the essence of world affairs. Now, international institutions have become the usual facts of real politics, and international institutions also begin to diffuse, broaden and deepen. In view of the theoretical and realistic significance of EⅡ, it is necessary to make an all-sided, deep and systematic study. Nearly forty years passed, in the domain of effectiveness, the theoretical constructions and the research methods have reached great advancements. However, the study of EⅡhas also some shortcomings and confinements. The causal relations of institutional effectiveness, the ways and methods, the questions of compliance and implementation, all of which confine the persuasiveness of EⅡ.
The concept of causation is one of core notions for each science which includes the humanities. In the domain of social science, causation has huge influence on IR theory. Causation also becomes the important area which is focused by IR scholars. Rationalism and Constructivism have strong arguments about causation. However, the prediction of international institutions theory is low, and the model of cause and effect is also weak. Now, it is very short to explain EⅡby causation theory. It must seek for scientific methods to demonstrate the causation clearly, and enter into the details of causal mechanisms which form the outcomes.
Causal effect, causal mechanism and causal inference are the core notions to explain EⅡby causation theory. Causal inference includes causal effect and causal mechanism, so causal effect and causal mechanism consist of the corner of EⅡby causation theory. From the viewpoint of causation to study EⅡ, it includes three parts: through the causal effect between the institution and its effect to elucidate whether the institution is effective or not; through the causal mechanism between the cause and the outcome to discuss how the institution is effective; through the causal mechanism in institutional interplay to elucidate the causal relation of the institutions. The quantitative approach is used to study institution is effective or ineffective, and the qualitative approach is used to study how the institution is effective.
This dissertation tries to construct the framework in the domain of EⅡ. Th e framework argues the cause of institutional effectiveness and evaluates the consequence through the way of causation. The framework includes two aspects:on the one hand, it refers to the influence factors, which are elucidated by power, legitimacy and domestic politics. Influence factors are the important aspects when EⅡis discussed. It recognizes that the factors of institutional function are necessary to know causation. The paper borrows endogenous variables and exogenous variables, and inducts into the intervening variables. It tries to interpret systematically the influence factors of EⅡ. The author views power as endogenous variable, which has decidable meaning to institutional effects and constitutes the structure of efficient institution. Legitimacy is exogenous variable, which is the immanence and postulation of it. Domestic politics is intervening variable, which has something independence. The paper constructs the theoretical forms of EII by these three variables and provides a pathway for it.
On the other hand, it refers to the standards of evaluation, which is elucidated by the intricate relationships among compliance, implementation and EⅡ, which include the paradox of compliance by the disorder in causation and the difficulty in the process of implementation from the viewpoint of causation. IR scholars use compliance as a litmus test of the causal influence of institutions. While such tests offer a degree of objectivity, they do not necessarily confirm a relationship between compliance and EⅡ. Compliance then is a misreading of the institutional causal relationship. Compliance research does offer an important lesson for understanding the effectiveness of institutions:researchers must carefully select indicators in assessing causality so that they can accurately determine the causal impact of institutions on a state's policies and behavior. To discuss whether the institution is effective or ineffective and how the institution is effective, it must focus on the process, the construction and the way of the treaty being implemented. The implementation of a specific issue can grasp the strength and direction of causal mechanism.
Contrasting the differences of qualitative case studies and quantitative methods, the dissertation combines two approaches. It discusses the influence factors of EⅡby the International Ozone Layer Depletion Institutions; It discusses the causal relations among compliance, implementation and EⅡby the quantitative studies of The Convention on Long-Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution and the quantitative studies of The 1988 Sofia Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or Their Trans-boundary Fluxes.
The theoretical implication of this dissertation helps to expose the institutional influence clearly, which is not simple and direct, but intricate and indirect. So, the causal pathway to form one consequence is special and intricate. On the one hand, international institutions are the important factors which influence the specific consequence, and in some circumstances it constructs a major factor; on the other hand, it is hasty to gain the "all or nothing" conclusion. In order to improve EⅡ, it is necessity to think the influential factors, such as power, domestic politics and legitimacy, and it needs carefully to evaluate EⅡby the compliance and the implementation. In practice, it has strong realistic and political implications. According to the developing countries, it needs to think about the costs and benefits when they join into international organizations, to grasp the rules of international organizations, and to influence actively the issue-setting rights.
引文
1秦亚青：“译者前言：国际关系理论的争鸣、融合与创新”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,秦亚青等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版,第2页。
2 Rob ert O. Keohane, "International Institutions:Can Interdependence Work?" Foreign Policy, No.110, Spring1998,p.8.
3 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", American Journal of Political Science,Vol.49,No.1,2005, p.86相似地,奥兰·扬认为过去近40年,国际机制或跨国机制的研究者首先关注机制形成方面的研究；随着时间的推移,机制文献主要讨论了三个主题：关注现存机制的维持,机制的形成以及机制结果。参见Oran R.Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press, 1997, pp.9-32.
4 L isa L.Martin and Beth A.Simmons, "Theories and Empirical Studies of International Institutions",International Organization, Vol.52, No.4, Autumn 1998, p.729.
5 Michael Ziirn, "The Rise of International Environmental Politics:A Review of Current Research", World Politics, Vol.50, No.4,1998, p.69.
6 Du ncan Snidal, "International Political Economy Approaches to International Institutions", in Jagdeep S. Bhandari and A. O. Sykes eds., Economic Dimensions in International Law: Comparative and Empirical Perspectives, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997,p.477.
'Arild U nderdal and Oran R. Young, "Research Strategies for the Future:Where Do We Go from Here?" in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, pp.364-365.
8 Ron aid B. Mitchell,"The Influence of International Institutions:Institutional Design, Compliance, Effectiveness, and Endogeneity", in Helen V. Milner and Andrew Moravcsik eds., Power, Interdependence, and Nonstate Actors in World Politics, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2009, pp.66-86.
9 Ari Id Underdal and Oran R. Young, "Research Strategies for the Future:Where Do We Go from Here?"pp.366-371.
10 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "The Influence of International Institutions:Institutional Design, Compliance, Effectiveness, and Endogeneity", p.72.
11 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Compliance Theory:Compliance, Effectiveness, and Behavior Change in International Environmental Law", in Jutta Brunee, Daniel Bodansky, and Ellen Hey eds., Oxford Handbook of International Environmental Law, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2007, p.900.
12 Ron ald B. Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008, p.113.
13[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第135页。
14 Oran R.Young,Governance in World Affairs, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1999,p.114.
15[美]詹姆斯·马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“新制度主义详述”,载《国外理论动态》2010年第7期,第44页。
16 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", Global Environmental Politics, Vol. 1,No.1, February 2001, p.118.
17 L isa Martin,"Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.3, No.2,2008, pp.201-206.
18 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1995.
19 Geor ge Downs, David Rocke and Peter Barsoom, "Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation", International Organization,Vol.50, No.3,1996, pp.379-406.
20卡斯蒂利亚是西班牙的前身,现西班牙中部和北部一地区。
21 Ron ald B. Mitchell, International Politics and the Environment, London:Sage Publications, 2010, pp.26-28.
22转引自张海滨：《环境与国际关系：全球环境问题的理性思考》,上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版,第6页。
23国家环境保护总局国际合作司等编：《联合国环境与可持续发展：系列大会重要文件选编》,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2004年版,第4页。
24 T amar Gutner and Alexander Thompson, "The Politics of IO Performance:A Framework", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5, No.3,2010, p.230.
25在2010年第3期的《国际组织评论》上,刊载了有关国际组织绩效的专辑。参见Tamar Gutner and Alexander Thompson eds., "Special Issue on the Politics of IO Performance", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5, No.3,2010.
26[美]本杰明·J.科恩著：《国际政治经济学——学科思想史》,杨毅、钟飞腾译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版,第123页。
27 Kenneth Abbott and Duncan Snidal,"International Regulation without International Government:Improving IO Performance through Orchestration", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5,No.3,2010,pp.315-344.
28 S tephen Krasner, "Structural Causes and Regime Consequences:Regimes as Intervening Variables", International Organization, Vol.36, No.2, Spring1982, p.186.
29 Rob ert O. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays on International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview,1989, p.3.
30 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Ziirn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2006, p.8.
31A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2008, p.54.
32 Jo hn Duffield, "What are International Institutions", The International Studies Review,Vol.9, No.1, Spring2007, pp.1-22.
" A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.54.
34苏长和：“重新定义国际制度”,载《欧洲研究》1999年第6期,第26页。
35[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,载[美]詹姆斯N·罗西瑙主编：《没有政府的治理》,张胜军等译,南昌：江西人民出版社,2001年版,第187页。
36 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes, "in Oran R.Young ed.,The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms,Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1999,p.3.
37 Hu gh Ward, Grank Grundig, and Ethan Zorick, "Formal Theory and Regime Effectiveness: Rational Players, Irrational Regimes,"in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004.
Ron aid B.Mitchell,International Politics and the Environment, p.146.
39 Olav Schram S tokke, "Examining the Consequences of Arctic Regimes", in Geir Honneland and Olav Schram Stokke eds., International Cooperation and Arctic Governance:Regime Effectiveness and Northern Region Building, London:Routledge,2007, pp.15-16.
40 Sey mour Martin Lipset, Political Man:The Social Bases of Politics, London:Heinemann,1983, p.65. 41 T amar Gutner and Alexander Thompson, "The Politics of IO Performance:A Framework", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5, No.3,2010, p.231.
42 薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”,载《外交评论》2006年第6期,第56页。
43 Arild U nderdal, "One Question, Two Answers", in Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume III, London:Sage Publications,2009, pp.32-33.
44 Oran R. Young, "Institutions and Environmental Change:The Scientific of Legacy of a Decade of IDGEC Research", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008, p.19.
45 Kal Raustiala, "Compliance & Effectiveness in International Regulatory Cooperation,"Western Reserve Journal of International Law, Vol.32,2000, p.388.
46 L isa L.Martin, "Against Compliance", Manuscript,2009, http://users.polisci.wisc.edu/irc/Martin.pdf.
47 Edith Br own Weiss,"Rethinking Compliance with International Law", in Eyal Benvenisti and Moshe Hirsh eds., The Impact of International Law on International Cooperation:Theoretical Perspectives, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2004, p.140.
48 V inod K. Aggarwal, Liberal Protectionism:The International Politics of Organized Textile Trade, Berkeley:University of California Press,1985, pp.20-21.
49 Mark W. Zacher, "Trade Gaps, Analytical Gaps:Regime Analysis and International Commodity Trade Regulation," International Organization, Vol.41, No.2,1987, p.117.
50 S tephan Haggard and Beth A. Simmons,"Theories of International Regimes," International Organization, Vol.41, No.3, Summer1987, p.496.
51 An dreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, Volker Rittberger, "Does Regime Robustness Require a Fair Distribution of the Gains from Cooperation?" in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, pp.193-195.
" A rild Underdal, "Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness," in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, pp.28-31.
53 [美]詹姆斯·马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“新制度主义详述”,第43-44页。
54 秦亚青：“译者前言：国际关系理论的争鸣、融合与创新”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,秦亚青等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版,第2页。
55 Rob ert O. Keohane, "International Institutions:Can Interdependence Work?" p.8.
56 近10年来,西方有关国际制度理论的主要学术著作有：Judith Goldstein, Miles Kahler, and Anne-Marie Slaughter eds., Legalization and World Politics, Cambridge:MIT Press,2001;Daniel Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:The Interaction of Domestic and International Institutions, Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,2002;Barbara Koremenos, Charles Lipson and Duncan Snidal eds., The Rational Design of International Institutions, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2003; Lisa L. Martin ed., International Institutions in the New Global Economy, Cheltenham, UK:Edward Elgar Publishing,2005; Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney eds., Delegation and Agency in International Organizations, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006; Helen V. Milner and Andrew Moravcsik eds., Power, Interdependence, and Non-State Actors in World Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press,2009.
57 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.86.
58 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.27, No.3, Winter 1992, pp.227-240; Thomas Bernauer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We Might Learn More ", International Organization, Vol.49, No.2, Spring 1995, pp.351-377.
59奥兰·扬对国际制度的论述主要围绕从机制形成到制度效果。一方面,将制度作为框架,论证制度的形成、遵约、履行与变迁等：另一方面,论述广义上的制度效果或结果,尤其关注全球治理中的制度因素,其核心就是制度的有效性。在有效性研究领域,奥兰·扬的主要著作包括：Oran Young, International Governance:Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society, Ithaca, New York:Cornell University Press,1994; Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT press, 1997; Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic,2004; Oran R. Young, Leslie A.King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008另一本著作中文版参见[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,陈玉刚、薄燕译,上海：上海人民出版社,2007年版。罗纳德·米切尔的主要作品包括：Ronald B.Mitchell, International Politics and the Environment, London:Sage Publications,2010; Ronald B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea: Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1994此外,在罗纳德·米切尔主编的四卷本《国际环境政治》中,第三卷集中论述了国际制度的有效性,具体包括作为概念的有效性、影响制度有效性的因素及方法论三部分。参见Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Four-Volume Set, London:Sage Publications,2009.
60 Olav Schram S tokke, Governing High Seas Fisheries:the Interplay of Global and Regional Regimes, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2001;Thomas Gehring and Sebastian Oberthur, "The Causal Mechanisms of Interaction between International Institutions", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.15, No.1,2009, pp.125-156制度互动的介绍也可参见孔凡伟：“制度互动研究：国际制度研究的新领域”,载《国际观察》2009年第3期,第46页。
61 V ictor Galaz et al., "The Problem of Fit among Biophysical Systems, Environmental and Resource Regimes, and Broader Governance Systems:Insights and Emerging Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change: Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008, pp.147-186.
62倪世雄：《战争与道义：核伦理学的兴起》,长沙：湖南出版社,1992年版。事实上,在该书出版前一年,倪世雄教授在《国际展望》杂志上撰文解释了国际机制论,参见倪世雄：“80年代西方国际关系理论简介之四：国际机制论”,载《国际展望》1991年第9期,第20-21页。
63王逸舟：《当代国际政治析论》,上海：上海人民出版社,1995年版。
64屠启宇：“国家、市场与制度——国际制度论述评”,载《世界经济与政治》1997年第8期,第22-26页。
65[美]罗伯特·艾克斯罗德著：《对策中的制胜之道》,吴坚忠译,上海：上海人民出版社,1996年版(该书的修订版2009年由上海人民出版社出版,书名改为《合作的进化》)；[美]罗伯特·基欧汉著：《霸权之后：世界政治经济中的合作与纷争》,苏长和等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2001年版；[美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈著：《权力与相互依赖》(第3版),门洪华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版；[美]罗伯特·基欧汉、海伦·米尔纳主编：《国际化与国内政治》,姜鹏,董素华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版；[美]约翰·鲁杰著：《多边主义》,苏长和等译,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2003年版；[美]朱迪斯·戈尔茨坦、罗伯特·O.基欧汉编：《观念与外交政策：信念、制度与政治变迁》,刘东国、于军译, 北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版：[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,秦亚青等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版：[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,陈玉刚、薄燕译,上海：上海人民出版社,2007年版；[美]肯尼斯·奥耶著：《无政府状态下的合作》,田野、辛平译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版。此外,北京大学出版社世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书中有一本《国际机制》,也被介绍到国内。参见斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《国际机制》,北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版。在国际制度有效性研究方面,奥兰·扬的一篇论文《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》在2001年被引入国内,引起了学界关注。该文对国际制度有效性的概念、影响因素及案例进行了全面论述,至今仍然是该问题领域研究的重要参考文献。参见奥兰·R·扬：《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》,载[美]詹姆斯N·罗西瑙主编,张胜军等译：《没有政府的治理》,南昌：江西人民出版社,2001年版。需要指出的是,经典著作和最新成果有时难于区分,从方便的角度,本文以西方学者著作出版时间为界,2000年之前出版的纳入经典,之后的归为最新成果。这样的划分参考对于西方国际制度理论的研究现状也是有参考意义的。
66[美]罗伯特·O.基欧汉著,罗伯特·o.基欧汉、门洪华编：《局部全球化世界中的自由主义、权力与治理》,门洪华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2004年版；[美]莉萨·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯编：《国际制度》,黄仁伟等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版；[美]弗雷德里克·克拉托赫维尔、爱德华·曼斯菲尔德主编：《国际组织与全球治理读本》(第二版),北京：北京大学出版社,2007年版；[美]约翰·伊肯伯里著：《大战胜利之后：制度、战略约束与战后秩序重建》,门洪华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年版；[美]迈克尔·巴尼特、玛莎·芬尼莫尔著：《为世界定规则：全球政治中的国际组织》,薄燕译,上海：上海人民出版社,2009年版。
67苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版；门洪华：《和平的纬度：联合国集体安全机制研究》,上海：上海人民出版社,2002年版；潘忠岐：《世界秩序：结构、机制与模式》,上海：上海人民出版社,2004年版：门洪华：《霸权之翼：美国国际制度战略》,北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版：门洪华：《构建中国大战略的框架：国家实力、战略观念与国际制度》,北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版：田野：《国际关系中的制度选择：一种交易成本的视角》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版；刘青建：《发展中国家与国际制度》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010年版。
68王杰主编：《国际机制论》,北京：新华出版社,2002年版：王逸舟主编：《磨合中的建构：中国与国际组织关系的多视角透视》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003年版。
69苏长和：“中国的国际制度理论研究”,载王逸舟主编：《中国国际关系研究(1995-2005)》,北京：北京大学出版社,2006年版,第115-116页。
70秦亚青：“国际制度与国际合作——反思新自由制度主义”,载《外交学院学报》1998年第1期,第44页。
71参见秦亚青：《霸权体系与国际冲突——美国在国际武装冲突中的支持行为(1945—1988)》,上海：上海人民出版社,1999年版,第82-84页。
72苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版,第96-136页。在论述国际制度与国际社会中的治理时,作者认为：国际制度由于其自身所独具的功能价值,为全球治理提供了基本的原则与规范,还构成了国家行动的外部环境力量。具体参见该书第297页至第305页。
73门洪华：《和平的纬度：联合国集体安全机制研究》,第95-160页；门洪华：“国际机制的有效性与局限性”,载《美国研究》2001年第4期,第7-20页。
74广义上的制度效果(the effects of regime)可以分为制度的分配效果(the distributive effects),认知效果(the cognitive effects),进程效果(the process effects)及侧面效果(the side effects)。具体介绍参见Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International. Environmental Regimes", p.113-114.
75 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,2008, p.88.
76 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.88.
"Thomas Bernauer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We Might Learn More", pp.351-377.
78 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.88.
79 Oran R.Young, International Governance:Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society,pp.140-162.
80 A rild Underdal,"Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", p.14.
81 Olav Schram S tokke, "The Interplay of International Regimes:Putting Effectiveness Theory to Work", FNI Report 14, Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Oslo,2001, pp.5-23转引自孔凡伟：《制度互动研究：国际制度研究的新领域》,载《国际观察》2009年第3期,第46页。
82 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.10-16.
83 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", pp 228-229.
84 Thomas Bern auer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We might Learn More", p.355.
85 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.79.
86 A rild Underdal,"Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", p.33.
87有关有效性的标准问题可参见Oran R. Young, International Cooperation:Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment, Ithaca, New York:Cornell University Press,1989.
88 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'",pp.230-234.
89 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", p.234.
90 A rild Underdal,"Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", pp.35-37.
91 Ed ward L. Miles, "Regime Effectiveness in Three Cases", Prepared for the "Regime Summit" Dartmouth College, Novermber1991.转引自Arild Underdal, "The Concept of Regime 'Effectiveness'", p.235.
92 L iliana Botcheva and Lisa L. Martin, "Institutional Effects on State Behavior:Convergence and Divergence", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.45, No.1, Summer2001, pp.1-26.
93有关奥斯陆——波茨坦方案的总体介绍参见Detlef F.Sprinz and Carsten Helm, "The Effect of Global Environmental Regimes:A Measurement Concept",International Political Science Review,Vol.20, No.5,1999,pp.359-369;Carsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz," Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", Journal of Conflict Resolution,Vol.45, No.5,2000,pp.630-632有关奥斯陆——波茨坦方案的最新发展参见Detlef F. Sprinz, Jon Hovi and Arild Underdal, "Separating and Aggregating Regime Effects", Paper Presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Le Centre Sheraton, Montreal, Quebec,17-20 March,2004,. http://www.uni-potsdam.de/u/sprinz/doc/Separating_Aggregating.ISA_2004.pdf; Detlef F. Sprinz, "Regime Effectiveness-The Next Wave of Research", Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28,2007, http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p181165_index.html.
94贾烈英：“国际制度的有效性——以联合国为例”,载《国际政治科学》2006年第1期,第86-116页：贾烈英：《无政府性与国际制度有效性的实证研究》,外交学院2005年博士学位论文,未出版。
95韩召颖、张蒂：“联合国安理会制度有效性的考察”,载《南开学报(哲学社会科学版)》2008年第5期,第22-31页。
96薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”,载《外交评论》2006年第6期,第57页。
97薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”,第57页。此外,作者还论述了全球环境治理的有效性与国际环境正义之间的关系,具体参见薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性与国际环境正义——中国的视角”,载《绿叶》2008年第4期,第65-69页。
98王传兴：“制度效果：国际制度理论研究的新领域”,载《世界经济与政治》2000年第4 期,第17页。
99田野：《国际关系中的制度选择：一种交易成本的视角》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版。
100刘庆荣：“以交易费用为视角考察国际机制的有效性”,载《学术探索》2004年第7期,第80-84页。
101[美]奥兰·R·扬：《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》,第199-214页。
102 A rild Underdal, "Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", pp.39-41.
103 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" pp.93-105.
104 An dreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, Volker Rittberger, "Does Regime Robustness Require a Fair Distribution of the Gains from Cooperation?" pp.199-204.
105 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What t Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.102.
106 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.103.
107 Ruth W.Grant and Robert O. Keohane,"Accountability and Abuses of Power in World Politics" American Political Science Review,Vol.99, No.1, February 2005, pp.29-43.
108薄燕：“国际环境保护机制效用分析”,载徐以骅主编：《世纪之交的国际关系》,上海：上海远东出版社,2002年版,第93-115页。
109张海滨：《环境与国际关系：全球环境问题的理性思考》,上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版,第231-232页。
110齐皓：“国际环境机制的差异性原因”,载《国际政治科学》2009年第2期,第88-102页。
111叶江、谈谭：“试论国际制度的合法性及其缺陷——以国际安全制度与人权制度为例”载《世界经济与政治》2005年第12期,第42-49页。
112王铁军：“世界政治的法律化：国际制度主义理论的新探索”,载《世界经济与政治》2006年第11期,第41页。
113成帅华：“国际制度中的透明度”,载《太平洋学报》1999年第4期,第59-65页。
114[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,第109-119页。
115 Ron ald B.Mitchell, "The Influence of International Institutions:Institutional Design, Compliance, Effectiveness, and Endogeneity", p.71.
116参见[美]W·理查德·斯科特著：《制度与组织——思想观念与物质利益》(第3版),姚伟、王黎芳译,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010年版。
117 T homas Gehring and Sebastian Oberthur, "The Causal Mechanisms of Interaction Between International Institutions",pp.125-156.
118 Oran R.Young, Governance in World Affairs, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1999, p.123.
119 Ron aid B.Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance; Ronald Mitchell, "Regime Design Matters:Intentional Oil Pollution and Treaty Compliance", International Organization, Vol.48, No.2,1994, pp.425-458.
120 Dai, Xinyuan, International Institutions and National Policies, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007; Edward A. Parson ed., Protecting the Ozone Layer; Science and Strategy, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2003; Rolf Lidskog and Goran Sundqvist, "The Role of Science in Environmental Regimes:the Case of LRTAP", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.8, No.1,2002, pp.77-101.
121 Olav Schram S tokke and Geir H(?)nneland eds., International Cooperation and Arctic Governance:Regime Effectiveness and Northern Region Building, London:Routledge,2008; Gail Osherenko and Oran R. Young, The Age of the Arctic:Hot Conflicts and Cold Realities, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1989.
122有关全球性淡水资源保护的论述,参见Ken Conca, Governing Water.Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2006; Thomas Bernauer, "Managing International Rivers", in Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance: Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1997有关欧洲水环境问题的论述,参见Thomas Bernauer and Patrick M. Kuhn, "Is There an Environmental Version of the Kantian Peace? Insights from Water Pollution in Europe", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.16, No.1,2010, pp.77-102; Ines Dombrowsky, "Institutional Design and Regime Effectiveness in Transboundary River Management:the Elbe Water Quality Regime", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.12, No.1,2008, pp.222-238.
123 Rog er K. Smith, "Explaining the Nonproliferation Regime:Anomalies for Contemporary International Relations Theory", International Organization, Vol.41, No.2, Spring1987, pp. 253-281; Ronald B. Mitchell, "International Control of Nuclear Proliferation:Beyond Carrots and Sticks", The Nonproliferation Review, Vol.5, No.1, Fall1997, pp.40-52.
124门洪华：《和平的纬度：联合国集体安全机制研究》；贾烈英：《无政府性与国际制度有效性的实证研究》。
125胡九龙：“论大国关系影响国际核不扩散机制效果的两面性”,载《国际论坛》2009年第2期,第2-7页。
126薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”；张海滨：《环境与国际关系：全球环境问题的理性思考》。
127[美]W·理查德·斯科特著：《制度与组织——思想观念与物质利益》(第3版),第52页。新制度主义经济学的著作众多,其中代表性的有[美]道格拉斯·诺思：《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》,杭行译,上海：上海三联书店,1994年版；[美]埃里克·弗鲁博顿、[德]鲁道夫·芮切特著：《新制度经济学：一个交易费用分析范式》,姜建强、罗长远译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版。有关新制度主义政治学概述的著作参见何俊志、任军锋等编译：《新制度主义政治学译文精选》,天津：天津人民出版社,2007年版。历史学新制度主义的介绍参见何俊志：《结构、历史与行为：历史制度主义对政治科学的重构》,上海：复旦大学出版社,2004年版。社会学新制度主义的著作参见张永宏主编：《组织社会学的新制度主义学派》,上海：上海人民出版社,2007年版；[美]沃尔特·W.鲍威尔、保罗·J.迪马吉奥主编：《组织分析的新制度主义》,姚伟译,上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版。
128 X inyuan Dai,"Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.8, No.3, August2008, p.154.
1 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2008, p.1.
2[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版,第107页。
3[美]R.卡尔纳普著：《科学哲学导论》,张华夏等译,广州：中山大学出版社,1987年版,第181页。
4周晓亮：《<人性论>导读》,成都：四川教育出版社,2002年版,第21页。
5张志林：《因果观念与休谟问题》,长沙：湖南教育出版社,1998年版,第38页。
Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1994, p.76.
7Jo hn L. Mackie,"Causes and Conditions", American Philosophical Quarterly, Vol.2, No.4, 1965, p.246.
8 Eller y Eells, Probabilistic Causality, Cambridge:Cambridge University,1991,p.267转引自张志林：《因果观念与休谟问题》,第52页。
6[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著：《政治学研究方法指南》,陈琪译,北京：北京大学出版社,2006年版,第8页,注3。在因果理论中,还涉及变量,包括自变量、因变量和中间变量。其中自变量是作为因果理论或假设中的原因的想象；因变量是因果理论或假设中作为结果的想象；中间变量是因果理论解释中作为中间现象的变量,由自变量引起并引发因变量。当然,一个具体的变量究竟是何种变量,取决于研究内容,并随研究内容的变化而变化。例如,在A导致B的陈述中,A是自变量；在Q导致A的陈述中,A变成因变量；在Q导致A而A又导致B的陈述中,A则变成中间变量。具体参见[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著：《政治学研究 方法指南》,第10页,
10[美]爱德文·阿瑟·伯特著：《近代物理科学的形而上学基础》,徐向东译,北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版,第87页。
11[英]休谟著：《人性论》,关文运译,北京：商务印书馆,2009年版,第195页。休谟的哲学代表作是三卷本的《人性论》和其他两本与《人性论》密切相关的专著：《人类理解研究》与《道德原理研究》。因果关系的论述集中于《人性论》第一卷的第三章,占据了该卷40%的内容。
12 Jo hn Stuart Mill, A System of logic, Toronto:University of Toronto Press,1973转引自邓生庆：《归纳逻辑——从古典向现代类型的演进》,成都：四川大学出版社,1991年版,第78页。
13金岳霖：《知识论》,北京：商务出版社,1983年版,第638页。
14周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,1996年版,第170页。在社会科学中,因果推论与描述性推论(descriptive inference)相对应,由于因果推论比较困难,在很多情况下,描述推论是研究的最终目标。参见Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.75.
15李少军：“国际关系研究中的途径与范式”,载《欧洲研究》2008年第1期,第114页。
16[美]加勒特·汤姆森著：《康德》,赵成文、藤晓冰、孟令朋译,北京：中华书局,2004年版,第37页。
17[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,第98页。
18[英]休谟著：《人性论》,关文运译,北京：商务印书馆,2003年版,第70-71页。
19李少军：“国际关系研究中的途径与范式”,第115页。
20张志伟：《西方哲学十五讲》,北京：北京大学出版社,2004年版,第262页。
21参见全增嘏主编：《西方哲学》(上册),上海：上海人民出版社,1983年版。
22俞吾金：“康德两种因果性概念探析”,载《中国社会科学》2007年第6期,第30-31页。
23[德]康德：《纯粹理性批判》,邓晓芒译,北京：人民出版社,2004年版,第184-185页。
24[德]马克思：《资本论》第3卷,北京：人民出版社,1975年版,第926-927页。
25彼得·温奇指出,我们从总体上考察穆勒(即密尔)关于科学研究的观念,该观念之基础乃是休谟关于因果关系之本性的观点。参见[英]彼得·温奇著：《社会科学的观念及其与哲学的关系》(第二版),张庆熊、张缨等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2004年版,第69页。
26分别参见[德]黑格尔：《历史哲学》,王造时译,北京：三联书店,1956年版；[德]叔本华：《作为意志和表象的世界》,石冲白译,北京：商务印书馆,1982年版。
27[美] H.L.A.哈特、托尼·奥诺尔著：《法律中的因果关系》,张绍谦、孙战国译,北京：中国政法大学出版社,2006年版。国内学者对其的介评,参见谌洪果：《哈特的法律实证主义：一种思想关系的视角》,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年版。
28罗中枢：《人类的探究——休谟哲学评述》,成都：四川大学出版社,1995年版,第201-202页。
29需要指出的是,休谟将知识分为必然知识与或然知识两类计7种,其中,同一关系、空间和时间的关系以及因果关系由于其不具有精确性而被归于或然知识。此外,从能否推理的角度,休谟认为只有因果关系是推理。参见[英]休谟著：《人性论》,第60页。
30周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,第155页。
31周晓亮：《<人性论>导读》,第31-32页。
32 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis,p.40.
33张志伟：《西方哲学十五讲》,第260-261页。
34Jo hn Stuart Mill, A System of Logic:Ratiocinative and Inductive, London:Longman,1970.密尔的这部著作很早就被严复翻泽成中文,不过“由于老来精神茶短,惮用脑力”的缘故,其中归纳法的内容只译了一部分。严复的翻译晦涩,他把五个探寻因果关系的方法分别称为：统同术、别异术、同异合术、归余术以及消息术。参见[英]约翰·穆勒著：《穆勒名学》,严复译,北京：商务印书馆1981年版,第335-344页。
35从本质上说,休谟的怀疑主义是经验论发展的逻辑结果,是经验论原则中怀疑主义因素最充分的理论表现。参见周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,第202页。
36休谟指出,“全部知识都归结为或然推断,而且最后变成和我们日常生活中所用的那种证 据一样。”参见[英]休谟著：《人性论》,第207页。
37[德]恩格斯：《自然辨证法》,于光远等译,北京：人民出版社，1984年版,第96
38 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis,p.91.
39 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.99.
40 David Dessler, "Beyond Correlations:A Causal Theory of War", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.35, No.3,1991, p.343.
38苏长和：“理性主义、建构主义与世界政治研究——兼论<世界政治理论中的探索与争鸣>”,载《国际政治研究》2006年第2期,第51-55页。
42[美]肯尼思·华尔兹著：《国际政治理论》,信强译,上海：上海人民出版社,2003年版,第86页。
43[美]肯尼思·华尔兹著：《国际政治理论》,第67页。
44 Jeffrey W. Legro and Andrew Moravcsik,"Is Anybody Still a Realist?"International Security, Vol.24,No.2, Fall 1999, pp.41-42.
44秦亚青认为新古典现实主义属于最小现实主义的范畴,而进攻性现实主义则属于最大现实主义。具体参见秦亚青：“现实主义理论的发展及其批判”,载《国际政治科学》2005年第2期,第161-166页。
46秦亚青：“现实主义理论的发展及其批判”,第165页。进一步说,个体层面的最小现实主义代表人物斯蒂芬·沃尔特(Stephen M.Walt)提出的威胁均衡理论,分析重心就转向决策者的心理因素对国家安全的影响。参见Stephen M.Walt, Origins of Alliances, New York: Cornell University Press,1987.
47刘丰：“新古典现实主义的发展及前景——评《没有应答的威胁：均势的政治制约》”,载《国际政治科学》2007年第3期,第165页。
48韩爱勇：“因果关系与国际关系理论研究”,载《国际关系学院学报》2010年第6期,第4页。
49 Michael Nic holson, Causes and Consequences in International Relations:A Conceptual Analysis, London:Cassell Academic,1996; Michael Nicholson, "The Continued Significance of Positivism? " in Steve Smith, Ken Booth and Marysia Zalewski eds., International Theory: Positivism and Beyond, New York:Cambridge University Press,1996.
50 Michael Nic holson, "The Continued Significance of Positivism?" p.137.
51 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis, p.100.
52一般认为因果效应和因果机制是因果推论的两种方式。不过加里·金等更看重因果效应的作用,认为因果机制只是理解因果效应的一种方式,即使没有因果机制,因果关系就足以发挥作用；但如果没有因果效应,就无法认识因果机制。参见Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Werba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.75-76在他们看来,因果机制只是方法上的技巧,是理解因果关系的操作性过程。相关论述可参见曲博：“因果机制与过程追踪法”,载《世界经济与政治》2010年第4期,第100页。
53 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.99-114.
54 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis, pp.104-105.
55[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,第96页。
56[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,第207页。
57 Alexa nder Went, "On Constitution and Causation in International Relations", Review of International Studies,Vol.24,1998, pp.101-117.
58定性研究与案例研究存在着一定的差异,仅从国际制度有效性研究这一主题看,将定性研究与案例分析等同,并不影响对该主题的研究。
59李少军著：《国际政治学概论》(第三版),上海：上海人民出版社,2009年版,第24页。
60 Aren d Lijphart, "Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method", The American Political Science Review, Vol.65, No.3. September1971, p.691.
61[美]罗伯特·K·殷著：《案例研究：设计与方法》(中文第2版),周海涛、李永贤、李虔译,重庆：重庆大学出版社,2010年版,第3页。
62[美]W.菲利普斯·夏夫利著：《政治科学研究方法》(第六版),新知译,上海：上海人民 出版社,2006年版,第50页。
63孙小礼主编：《社会科学中的十大关系》,上海：学林出版社,2004年版,第114页。转引自李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第128页。
64相关介绍见李少军著：《国际政治学概论》(第三版),第25-26页；李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,第127-170页。
5 Mart yn Hammersley ed., Social Research:Philosophy, Politics and Practice, London:Sage Publications,1992, pp.9-13.
00 Peter John, "Quantitative Methods", in David Marsh and Gerry Stoker eds., Theory and Methods in Political Science, Basingstoke:Palgrave,2002, pp.216-217该书中本版参见[英]大卫·马什、格里·斯托克主编：《政治科学的理论与方法》(第2版),景跃进、张小劲、欧阳景根译,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006年版。
7 Melv yn Read and David Marsh, "Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods", in David Marsh and Gerry Stoker eds., Theory and Methods in Political Science, Basingstoke:Palgrave, 2002, p.234.
68 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.3-32.
69少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第124页。
70德育编著：《政治学定量分析入门》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007年版,第18页。
71[美]罗伯特D·帕特南：《使民主运转起来》,王列、赖海榕译,南昌：江西人民出版社,2001年版。
72 David A. Collier, "The Comparative Method", in Ada W. Finifter ed., Political Science:The State of the Discipline II, Washington, DC:American Political Science Association,1993, p.116, http://polisci.berkeley.edu/people/faculty/CollierD/APSA-TheComparativeMethod.pdf.
73 Mark A. Boyer, "Old Whine in New Bottles?"Journal of International Relations and Development,Vol.6, No.4,2003, pp.395-396.
74秦亚青：“国际关系研究中科学与人文的契合”,载《中国社会科学》2004年第1期,第79-80页。
75 Michael Nic holson,"The Continued Significane of Positivism", pp.128-145.
76 Ron ald Rogowski, "The Role of Theory and Anomaly in Social-Scientific Inference", American Political Science Review, Vol.89, No.2,1995, pp.467-470转引自曲博：“因果机制与过程追踪法”,第99页。
77李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,第121页。
78 Daniel Maliniak, Amy Oakes, Susan Peterson, and Michael J. Tierney,"International Relations in the US Academy", International Studies Quarterly, Vol55,2011, p.451.
79 L isa L. Martin, Coercive Cooperation:Explaining Multilateral Economic Sanctions, Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press,1992.
80西方国际关系研究具有重要影响的定量、定性方法包括Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research; Michael Brecher and Frank Harvey eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,2002; Henry Brady and David Collier eds., Rethinking Social Inquiry:Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, Lanham:Rowman& Littlefield Publishers, INC.,2004; Alexander George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science, Cambridge:MIT Press,2005.
81 Ron ald B. Mitchell and Thomas Bernauer, "Empirical Research on International Environmental Policy:Designing Qualitative Case Studies", Journal of Environment and Development, Vol.7, No.1, March 1998, pp.4-7.
82曲博：“因果机制与过程追踪法”,第98-99页。
83 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.9.
84 Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Marc Levy, Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge:The MIT Press,1993.
85 Arild U nderdal and Kenneth Hanf, International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:The Case of Acid Rain, Ashgate:Aldershot,2000.
86 Arild U nderdal, "Conclusions:Patterns of Regime Effectiveness", In Edward L.Miles, Arild Underdal, Steinar Andresen, Jorgen Wettestad, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and Elaine M. Carlin eds., Environmental Regime Effectiveness:Confronting Theory with Evidence, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2001,p.4.
87Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.10.
88 Ro nald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.2, No.4, November 2002, pp.58-59.
89 Ron ald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.68.
90 S teinar Andresen and Jorgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, p.55.
91 Helmut Breitmeie r, Marc A. Levy, Oran R. Young, and Michael Zurn, "International Regimes Database (IRD):Data Protocol", HASA WP-96-154, December 1996.
92 Oran R. Young and Michael Ziirn, "The International Regimes Database:Designing and Using a Sophisticated Tool for Institutional Analysis", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.6, No.3, August 2006, pp.122-123.
93参见Helmut Breitmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database.
94该数据库的网址为:http://iea.uoregon.edu/page.php?query=home-contents.php。
95 Ron ald B.Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.58.
96 Edith Br own Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1998.
97Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.99-121.
98 Ron ald B.Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.66.
99 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes,"in Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, pp.4-6.
100 S teinar Andresen and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", pp.60-61.
101 Oran R. Young, "The Consequences of International Regimes:A Framework for Analysis," p.15.
102谢宇：《社会学方法与定量研究》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006年版,第44页。
103 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, Cambridge: MIT Press,1998, p.27.
104 James D. Fearon,"Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science," World Politic Vol.43, No.2,1991, p.171.
105 Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics:Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1996理查德·内德·勒博(Richard Ned Lebow)也是一位反事实分析的积极支持者和倡议者,并将反事实分析运用于世界性战争以及冷战的分析之中。其最新主张参见Richard Ned Lebow, Forbidden Fruit:Counterfactuals and International Relations, Princeton and Oxford:Princeton University Press,2010,pp.29-68.
106[美]小约瑟夫·奈著：《理解国际冲突：历史与理论》,张小明译,上海：上海人民出版社,2002年版,第77页。
107 Jo n Elster, Explaining Technical Change:A Case Study in the Philosophy of Science, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1983, pp.34-36.
108[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著：《政治学研究方法指南》,第46页。
109参见[美]小约瑟夫·奈著：《理解国际冲突：历史与理论》,第78-81页。
110吉宓：“政治学研究中理论与方法的相互界定”,载《国际政治研究》2007年第1期,第 123-124页。
111 Helmut Breitmeie r, Arild Underdal, Oran R. Young, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Comparing and Contrasting Findings from Quantitative Research", International Studies Review, Vol.13,2011, p.39.
112 S teinar Andresen and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", p.64.
113 Jo hn W. Creswell, Research Design:Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, London:Sage Publications,1994, p.177.
114 Deb orah Padgett, Qualitative Methods in Social Work Research:Challenges and Rewards, London:Sage Publications,1998, pp.128-129.
115 S teinar Andresen and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Enyironmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", pp.50-52.
116 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?"pp.113-114.
1[美]罗伯特·古丁、汉斯-迪特尔·克林格曼主编：《政治科学新手册》,钟开斌等译,北京：三联书店,2006年版,第656页。
2[美]罗伯特·古丁、汉斯-迪特尔·克林格曼主编：《政治科学新手册》,第656页。
3 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.81-82.
4 S tephen L.Morgan and Christopher Winship, Counterfactuals and Causal Inference:Methods and Pinciples for Social Research, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007,p.3
5 An drew Gelman and Gary King,"Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias", American Journal of Political Science, Vol.34, No.4,1990, pp.1142-1164.
6随机变量可以分为“离散型随机变量”(discrete random variable)和“连续型随机变量’(continuous random variable)。当一个随机变量可能发生的数值是可数的而且有限时,称为离散型随机变量；如果一个随机变量可能发生的数值是没有间隔,而且有无限可能发生的数值,这就是连续型随机变量。需要指出的是,随机变量表明结果的不确定性,但是这种不确定性并非表示随机变量是杂乱无章的。参见王德育编著：《政治学定量分析入门》,第98页。
7King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.80.
8章奇：“社会科学中的因果关系及其分析方法”,载《浙江社会科学》2008年第3期,第6页。
9曲博：“译者序：国内政治与国际关系——理论建构与理论检验”,载[美]海伦·米尔纳著：《利益、制度与信息：国内政治与国际关系》,曲博译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版,第ⅵ页。
10 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,pp.91-95.
11Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,pp.93-94.
12 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,p.94.
13曲博：“译者序：国内政治与国际关系——理论建构与理论检验”,第ⅵ页。
14章奇：“社会科学中的因果关系及其分析方法”,第7页。
15 Jo n Elster, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1989, pp.3-10.
16赵广成：‘‘国际关系的退化机制分析：一项研究议程”,载《世界经济与政治》2011年第1期,第112-113页。
17 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg, "Social Mechanisms:An Introductory Essay", in Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1998, pp.5-6; Robert Merton, On theoretical sociology:Five Essays, Old and New, New York:Free Press,1967.
18转引自张志林：“科学解释与理解类型”,载《科学技术与辩证法》2003年第3期,第30页。
19张志林：“科学解释与理解类型”,第31页。
20王天夫：“社会研究中的因果分析”,载《社会学研究》,2006年第4期,第151页。
21 Daniel Litt le, Varieties of Social Explanation:An Introduction to the Philosophy of Social Science, Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1991, p.15.
22 Daniel Little, "Causal Explanation in the Social Sciences", The Southern Journal of Philosophy Vol.34,1995, p.35.
23 Arthur L. Stinchcombe, "The Conditions of Fruitfulness of Theorizing about Mechanisms Social Science", Philosophy of the Social Sciences,Vol.21,1991, pp.367-388.转引自Jon Hovi, "Causal Mechanisms and the Study of International Environmental Regimes", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, p.72.
24 Peter Hedstrom and Petri Ylikoski,"Causal Mechanisms in the Social Sciences", Annual Review of Sociology, Vol.36,2010, p.56.
25 Jo n Elster, "A Plea for Mechanisms", in Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1998, p.45.
26 Jo n Elster, Explaining Technical Change:A Case Study in the Philosophy of Science, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1983, p.24.
27Mario Bu nge,"Mechanism and Explanation", Philosophy of the Social Sciences, Vol.27,1997 p.414. Mario Bu nge,"Mechanism and Explanation,"p.415.
29 W illiam Bechtel and Robert C. Richardson, Discovering Complexity:Decomposition and Localization as Scientific Research Strategies, Princeton, NJ.:Princeton University Press, 1993,p.17.
30[美]托马斯·谢林著：《承诺的策略》,王永钦、薛峰译,上海：上海人民出版社,2009年版,第226页。
31 Olav Schram S tokke,"Boolean Analysis, Mechanisms, and the Study of Regime Effectiveness", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic,2004, p.89.
32 Peter Machamer, Lindley Darden and Carl F. Craver, "Thinking about Mechanisms,' Philosophy of Science, Vol.67, No.1,2000, pp.1-25
33 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1998该书作者包括了托马斯·谢林等一批著名学者,在社会学领域影响广泛,成为分析社会学的开创之作。
34 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.24-25.
35 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.21-23.
36参见Peter Hedstrom, Dissecting the Social:On the Principles of Analytical Sociology,2005.
37陈云松：“分析社会学：寻求连接微观与宏观的机制性解释”,载《浙江社会科学》2008年第5期,第25页。
38以亨普尔为代表的实证主义者提出了自然科学领域中的覆盖律模型,意为一个事件通过从一般规律和某些初始条件中演绎出而被说明。说明就是把事件纳入一般规律,或者说用一般规律来“覆盖”它。参见[美]亨普尔著：《自然科学的哲学》,陈维杭译,上海：上海科学技术出版社,1986年版。在彼得·赫德斯特罗姆看来,这种解释是一种“暗箱”解释(black-box explanation),它恰恰把得以生成这种过程的社会实体——人际互动,排除在解释之外,参见Peter Hedstrom, Dissecting the Social:On the Principles of Analytical Sociology, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2005.
39语用-文化型解释模式表现在三个方面：科学解释是满足人们特定愿望的一种科学应用；科学解释的真理性依赖于语用学维度上以言取效行为的真正实现：科学解释是把一个“未明事件”融于主体的视域、是作为主体的解释者和求解者的视界融合。参见刘高岑、郭贵春：“科学解释的语境——意向模型”,载《科学学研究》2006年第4期,第497-502页。
40 Mario Bu nge,"Mechanism and Explanation", p.441.
41 Peter Hedstrom and Peter Bearman,"What is Analytical Sociology All About? An Introductory Essay", in Peter Hedstrom and Peter Bearman eds., The Oxford Handbook of Analytical Sociology, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2009, p.4.
42 Jo n Hovi,"Causal Mechanisms and the Study of International Environmental Regimes",p.77.
43 Olav Schram S tokke and and Davor Vidas eds., Governing the Antarctic:The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
44周雪光：《组织社会学十讲》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003年版,第16页。
45 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.86.
46 Alexa nder George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science, Cambridge:MIT Press,2005, p.21.
47 Alexa nder George and Andrew Bennett,Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science, p.206.
48陈云松：“分析社会学：寻求连接微观与宏观的机制性解释”，第25页。
49 Jo hn Gerring, "Causal Mechanisms:Yes, But...",2009, pp.1-32, http://sws.bu.edu/jgerring/documents/CausalMechanisms_Extended.pdf.
50 Peter Hedstrom and Petri Ylikoski,"Causal Mechanisms in the Social Sciences", p.54.
51 Jeffrey Checkel, "International Institutions and Socialization in Europe:Introduction and Framework", International Organization, Vol.59, No.4,2005, p.805.建构主义理论中的社会化是指引导新的行为体进入一个给定共同体行为的规范、规则和方式,其中共同体规则、规范是给定的,终点是国际化。建构主义对社会化机制进行了深入研究,比如亚历山大·温特提出了社会化的三种机制：强制(coercion)、算计(calculation)与信仰(belief);杰弗瑞·切克尔提出了战略算计(strategic calculation)、角色博弈(role playing)以及规范劝说(normative persuasion);江忆恩(Alastair Iain Johnston)也给出了社会化的三种机制：模仿(mimicking)、社会影响(social influence)和劝说(persuasion)。分别参见[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,2000年版；Jeffry Checkel, "International Institutions and Socialization in Europe:Introduction and Framework", p.805; Alastair Iain Johnston, Social States, Princeton: Princeton University Press,2008,pp.23-26.
52 Jeffrey Checkel, "It's the Process Stupid! Tracing Causal Mechanisms in European and International Politics", in Audie Klotz ed., Qualitative Methods in International Relations, NY: Palgrave Macmillian,2007.
" Olav Schram S tokke, "Boolean Analysis, Mechanisms, and the Study of Regime Effectiveness", p.91.
54 Jo n Hovi,"Causal Mechanisms and the Study of International Environmental Regimes",p.74.
55 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", in Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1999,p.21.
56 Olav Schram S tokke and Davor Vidas eds., Governing the Antarctic:The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System.
57 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.8.
58 Jo n Elster,Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences, pp.4-10.p.3.亨利·布雷迪是加州大学伯克利分校政治学教授,2009年开始任美国政治学学会主席,
59 Henry Brady, "Models of Causal Inference:Going beyond the Neyman-Rubin-Holland Theory",被誉为政治科学领域的大科学家。
60张桂琳：“多重因果路径分析述评”,载《政治学研究》2008年第5期,第92页。
61张桂琳：“多重因果路径分析述评”,第92页。
Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.97.
63 David Collier, Jason Seawright,and Gerardo L. Munck, "The Quest for Standards:King, Keohane, and Verba's Designing Social Inquiry", in Henry E. Brady and David Collier eds., Rethinking Social Inquiry:Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, INC.,2004, p.27.
64 Paul W. Holland,"Statistics and Causal Inference", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.81,1986, pp.948-949.
65 Henry Brady."Models of Causal Inference:Going beyond the Neyman-Rubin-Holland Theory", pp.36-50;
66 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.103.
67Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.105.
68[美]詹姆斯·G.马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“国际政治秩序的制度动力”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第367页。
69[美]詹姆斯·G.马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“国际政治秩序的制度动力”,第369页。
70 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.108.
71[美]查理斯·C·拉金、德克·伯格-施洛瑟、吉塞勒·德穆尔著：“政治科学方法论：定性研究法”,载[美]罗伯特·古丁、汉斯-迪特尔·克林格曼主编：’《政治科学新手册》,钟开斌等译,北京：三联书店,2006年版,第1085页。“恒常会合”与“习惯原理”共同构成 了休谟因果推论的经验说明。周晓亮认为,通过考察因果推论,休谟确实发现了有助于说明因果关系的东西,那就是因果推理过程中的两个必不可少的条件：一是两类现象的恒常会合,二是由于习惯的作用,心灵由一种知觉(原因)到另一种知觉(结果)的转移。休谟正是将两者当作了因果关系定义的基础。参见周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,第170页。
72 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.79.
73需要指出的是,拉金的‘‘定性”一词专指一种研究方法上的兴趣,通过多案例系统比较法来寻找某些特性或是特性的某些特殊结构的存在或缺失的情况,介于传统的案例法(有无数个变量但只有一个案例)和传统的定量研究法(有许多案例但变量相对较少)之间。具体操作过程参见[美]查理斯·C·拉金、德克·伯格-施洛瑟、吉塞勒·德穆尔著：“政治科学方法论：定性研究法”,第1076-1080页。
74 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.58.
75 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", pp.58-59相应地,特定制度的能力可看作规定活动领域功能的重要性、总的角色或成员的分量以及行为改变的程度。这些都构成了国际制度有效性领域因果重要性的必要条件,这也是总体上因果功效(causal efficacy)的公式。
76 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.698.
77 David G.Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B.Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.698.
78 R obert O. Keohane, Peter M. Haas, and Mark A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", in Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane, and Mark A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, pp.3-24.
79 Evan J.Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", pp.86-102; Ronald B. Mitchell, "The Relative Effects of Environmental Regimes:A Quantitative Comparison of Four Acid Rain Protocols", International Studies Association Conference, Portland, OR, February 2003.
80 Arun Agrawal and Ashwini Chhatre, "Explaining Success on the Commons:Community Forest Governance in the Indian Himalaya", World Development, Vol.34, No.1,2006, pp.149-166.
81 Adam Przeworksi, "Institutions Matter?" Government and Opposition, Vol.39, No.4,2004, p.527.
82 Oran R. Young, "Institutions and Environmental Change:The Scientific of Legacy of a Decade of IDGEC Research", pp.19-20.
83参见Oran R. Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale, Cambridge:MIT Press,2002.
84 Oran R. Young, "Institutions and Environmental Change:The Scientific of Legacy of a Decade of IDGEC Research", p.21.
" Helmut Breitmeie r, Arild Underdal, and Oran R. Young, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Comparing and Contrasting Findings from Quantitative Research", International Studies Review, Vol.13,2011, p.12.
86 Ca rsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz,"Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.630-632.
87Ca rsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz,"Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.630-632.
88 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", p.231.
89 Carsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz, "Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.636.
90 I nes Dombrowsky, "Institutional Design and Regime Effectiveness in Trans-boundary River Management:the Elbe Water Quality Regime", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.12, No.1,2008, p.225.
91 Carsten Helm and Detlef F. Sprinz, "Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.637其中,有效性分值敏感度分值
92 Detlef F. Sprinz and Carsten Helm, "The Effect of Global Environmental Regimes:A Measurement Concept", pp.359-369.
93 Detle f F. Sprinz, Jon Hovi and Arild Underdal,"Separating and Aggregating Regime Effects" pp.1-24.
94该种情况下计算公式如下：IEA.B= [(APA,B-HPA,-B-HP-AB)/(COA,B-NR-A-B)]。
95 Detlef F. Sprinz, "Regime Effectiveness-The Next Wave of Research",p.8表格显示,非机制有效性分值机制有效性分值有效性总分值=EA]B+E(?)A,(?)B。
96 Carst en Helm and Detlef F. Sprinz,"Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.636-637.
97 Detlef F. Sprinz, "Regime Effectiveness-The Next Wave of Research", pp.1-18.
98 Volker Rittberger and Michael Zurn, "Regime Theory:Findings from the Study of East-West Regimes", Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.26,No.2,1991, pp.165-183.
99皓：“国际环境机制的差异性原因”,载《国际政治科学》2009年第2期,第94页。
100[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,第115页。
101者与反对者在研究国际环境问题的重要学术刊物《全球环境政治》上进行了热烈的学理争论。参见Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.99-121. Jon Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2003, pp.74-96;Oran R. Young, "Determining Regime Effectiveness:A Commentary on the Oslo-Potsdam Solution", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2003, pp.97-104. Jon Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "Regime Effectiveness and the Oslo-Potsdam Solution:A Rejoinder to Oran Young", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2003, pp.105-107.
102 Oran R.Young, "Determining Regime Effectiveness:A Commentary on the Oslo-Potsdam Solution", pp.97-104.
103 Jo n Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", p.91.
104 Jo n Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", p.89.
105 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.112.
106 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.112.
107 Jo n Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", p.92.
108 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.113.
109齐皓：“国际环境机制的差异性原因”,第93页。
110[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,第56-58页。针对奥兰·扬的批评,弗兰克·根德(Frank Grundig)对奥斯陆——波茨坦方案进行了三个方面的补充,以期克服制度有效性的“时间域”(the temporal domain)的问题。主要包括：通过衡量有效性的专门时间间隔(awell-specified time interval),而不是一个既定的时间点,捕捉跨时的制度收益；将制度形成前的阶段及未能及时达成协议所造成的损失纳入考察范畴；补充制度政策的时间外部性 (temporal externalities)。具体参见Frank Grundig, "Dealing with the Temporal Domain of Regime Effectiveness:A Further Conceptual Development of the Oslo-Potsdam Solution", International Environmental Agreements:Politics, Law and Economics, Vol.11, No.4, 2011,pp.1-17.
111Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes," p.118.
112 L iliana Botcheve and Lisa L. Martin, "Institutional Effects on State Behavior:Convergenc and Divergence", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.45, No.1, Summer2001, pp.1-26.
113苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,第120页。
114 L isa L. Martin, "Interests, Power and Multilateralism", International Organization, Vol.46, No.4,1992, pp.765-792.
115[美]罗伯特·阿克塞尔罗德、罗伯特·基欧汉：“无政府状态下的战略和制度合作”,载[美]大卫·A.鲍德温主编：《新现实主义和新自由主义》,第110页。
116 Matthew Evangelista, "D omestic Structure and International Change", in Michael W. Doyle and John G. Ikenberry eds., New Thinking in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1997,pp.202-228.
117袁正清：《近年来国外国际组织与制度的研究进展》,载于逸舟主编：《国际政治理论与战略前沿问题》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007年版,第78页
118 S tephen M. Walt, "International Relations:One World, Many Theories", Foreign Policy, Spring 1998, pp.29-46.
119 Ken Conca, Governing Water:Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institutio Building, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2006.
120利莎·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯：“国际制度的理论与经验研究”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第134页。
121 Helmut Breitmeie r, Arild Underdal, and Oran R. Young,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Comparing and Contrasting Findings from Quantitative Research", pp.1-2.
122 Ken Conca, Governing Water:Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, pp.14-16.
123 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2008, p.53.
124[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第135页。
125 Olav Schram S tokke,"Boolean Analysis, Mechanisms, and the Study of Regime Effectiveness", p.87.
126 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.53.
127有关观念的论述参见Peter M. Haas, "Introduction:Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination", International Organization, Vol.46, No.1, Winter 1992,pp.187-224有关新规范标准的演化参见Thomas Risse, Stephen C. Ropp and Kathryn Sikkink eds., The Power of Human Rights:International Norms and Domestic Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1999有关“揭牌外交”的论述参见Marc A. Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Marc A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,1993, pp.75-132.
128 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2006; Social Learning Group, Learning to Manage Global Environmental Risks, Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press,2001.
129Ken Conca, Governing Water:Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, p.23.
130 Karen Litfin, Ozone Discourses, New York:Columbia University Press,1994.
131 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes",Global Environmental Politics, Vol.1, No.1, February 2001, p.118.
132保罗·凯尔斯泰特(Paul Kellstedt)等人通过潜在变量和显在变量的细分,寻求显在变量上的偏差,为有效性研究提供了启示。参见Paul Kellstedt, Gregory E. McAvoy and James A. Stimson, "Dynamic Analysis with Latent Construct",Political Analysis, Vol.5, No.1, pp.113-150.
133 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.66.
134 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.66.
135 Oran R. Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes",p.21.
136 Ron ald B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1994, p.30.
137Ron ald B. Mitchell,International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.32.
138Oran R.Young, Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge:MIT Press,1997, p.34.
139 Geor ge W. Downs, "Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes", Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.3, June 2000, pp.630-652.
140 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.68.
141 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection.
142 Elizabe th R. DeSombre, Domestic Sources of International Environmental Policy:Industry, Environmentalists, and U.S. Power, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, p.138.
143 Elizabeth R. DeSombre, Domestic Sources of International Environmental Policy:Industry, Environmentalists, and U.S. Power, p.245.在最近的一本新书中,伊丽莎白·德松布尔指出,从政治的角度来说世界是由各个国家组成的。从环境的角度来说世界是由生态系统组成的,分割这两个体系会导致全球环境问题的严峻和紧迫形势。参见Elizabeth R. DeSombr, The Global Environment and World Politics, New York, N.Y.:Continuum International Pub Group, 2007.
144 Olav Schram S tokke and Davor Vidas, Governing the Antarctic:The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996, p.18.
145 Oran R.Young, Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience,p.36.全球治理与国际制度分析的区分也显而易见：制度分析的政治议程局限于特定的领域,而全球治理则超越了特定的领域：制度分析强调国家和政府官僚的规范协调,而全球治理则强调超国家和次国家行为体的分析。参见该书第58页。
146 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges," p.70.
147Edward L.Miles, Arild Underdal, Steinar Andresen, Jorgen Wettestad, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and Elaine M. Carlin, Environmental Regime Effectiveness:Confronting Theory with Evidence, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2002.
148 Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, pp.187-224.制度互动对应的词组有两个："institutional interaction"与"institutional interplay"。实际上,二者并无明显差异。
149机制密度”概念由奥兰·扬提出,可参见Oran R. Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale; Oran R. Young, "Institutional Linkages in International Society:Polar Perspectives", Global Governance, Vol.2, No.1,1996, pp.1-24.“条约堵塞”由艾迪·布朗·维丝(Edith Brown Weiss)提出,参见Edith Brown Weiss, "International Environmental Issues and the Emergence of a New World Order", Georgetown Law Journal, Vol.81, No.3,1993, p.679.
150 Konrad von Moltke, "Institutional Interactions:The Structure of Regimes for Trade and the Environment", in Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1997, pp.271-272.
151 Oran R.Young ed.,The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms.
152 Oran R. Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale; Oran R.Young, W. Bradnee Chambers, Joy A. Kim and Claudiaten Have eds., Institutional Interplay:Biosafety and Trade, Tokyo:UN University Press,2008; Olav Schram Stokke, Governing High Seas Fisheries:the Interplay of Global and Regional Regimes.
153 Oran R Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale, pp.83-138.
154 V inod K. Aggarwal ed., Institutional Designs for a Complex World:Bargaining, Linkages, and Nesting, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1998, p.4.
155 V inod K. Aggarwal ed., Institutional Designs for a Complex World:Bargaining, Linkages, and Nesting, pp.3-5.
156 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Interplay:Exploring International Interaction", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change: Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, p.187.
157Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.21-22.
158 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Interplay:Exploring International Interaction", p.200.
159 Thomas Ge hringand Sebastian Oberthur, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", in Sebastian Oberthur and Thomas Gehring eds, Institutional Interaction in Global Environmental Governance:Synergy and Conflict among International and EU Policies, pp.6-7.
160 T homas Schelling, "Social Mechanisms and Social Dynamics", in Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.32-44.
161 Arild U nderdal,"One Question, Two Answers", in Ronald B. Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume III, pp.32-33.
162 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.61.
163 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", pp.7-9.也可参见孔凡伟：“制度互动研究：国际制度研究的新领域”,第44-46页；祁怀高：“国际制度变迁与东亚体系和平转型——一种制度主义视角分析”,载《世界经济与政治》2010年第4期,第64-66页。
164 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur,"The Causal Mechanisms of Interaction between International Institutions", p.128.
165 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", p.7.
166 Hedley Bull, "International Theory:The Case for a Classical Approach", World Politics, Vol.18, No.3, April 1966, pp.366.
167[美]詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著：《争论中的国际关系理论》(第五版),阎学通、陈寒溪等译,北京：世界知识出版社,2003年版,第53页。
168 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian OberthUr, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", p.7.
169 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.53.
170 H eike Schroeder, "Analyzing Biosafety and Trade through the Lens of Institutional Interplay" in Oran R. Young et al., Institutional Interplay:Biosafety and Trade, Tokyo:UN University Press, 2008, pp.53-54.
171 H ugh Ward, "International Linkages and Environmental Sustainability:The Effectiveness of the Regime Network", Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.2,2006, pp.149-166.
1[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,第199-214页。
2 Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, pp.273-300.
3内生变量和外生变量广泛运用于经济学中,比如宏观经济学所研究的是对各种变量规定出明确的含义,在经济分析中的变量是一些可以取不同数值的量,包括内生变量和外生变量,以及存量与流量等。内生变量是指经济体系内部因素所决定的变量；外生变量是由经济体系之外的因素所决定的变量。外生变量可以影响内生变量,但它们本身是由不属于经济模型研究范畴的外在因素所决定的变量。参见胡希宁编著：《当代西方经济学概论》,北京：中共中央党校出版社,1998年版,第19页。事实上,经济学中的变量已经在国际政治经济学领域中得以运用,主要在于国际政治经济学研究的问题其变量与经济要素相关。参见Helen Milner, "Reflections on the Field of International Political Economy", in Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2002, pp.623-659.
4 Ja ck Donnelly, Realism and International Relations,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press2000,p.135。杰克·唐纳利(Jack Donnelly)认为干涉变量有重要的作用,它们和独立变量一样具有独立性。也就是说它们在自身的分析领域具有相对的独立性,尽管它们的作用没有独立变量重要。
5实际上,奥兰·扬在论述制度是何时、在何种程度上是有效的这个问题上,也采用了“内生变量”和“外生变量”的概念。参见[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,第214页。
6 Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Mark A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1993, p.21.
'Jo hn J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions",International Security, Vol.19, No.3, Winter 1994/1995, p.7.
8 Rob ert M. A. Crawford, Regime Theory in the Post-Cold War World:Rethinking Neoliberal Approaches to International Relations, Dartmouth:Dartmouth Publishing Company,1996, p.56.
9 Michael N. Barnett and Martha Finnermore, "The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations", International Organization, Vol.53, No.4, p.700.
10 Michael N. Barnett and Martha Finnermore, "The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations", p.707.
11王明国：“经济自由主义,经济民族主义与国际机制论”,载《世纪中国》,2003年6月13日,http://www.cc.org.cn/zhoukan/guanchayusikao/0306/0306131008.htm。
12[美]奥兰·R·扬：《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》,第208页。
13 Thomas Bern auer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We might Learn More", pp.351-377.
14慕建峰：“新秩序,还是老制度——<制度、战略约束和美国战后秩序的持续>评介”,载《美国研究》2002年第1期,第135-143页。
15 An dreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer and Volker Rittberger, Theories of International Regimes, London:Cambridge University Press,1997, p.182.
16 Oran R.Young, Institutional Dynamics:Emergent Patterns in International Environmental Governance, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2010, p.175.
17 Ian Hurd, "Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics", International Organization, Vol. 53,No.2, Spring1999, p.381.
18 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", International Organization,Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.401-402.
19 Judith Goldstein, Miles Kahler, Robert O. Keohane and Anne-Marie Slaughter, "Introductio Legalization and World Politics", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, p.402.
20[美]罗伯特·O.基欧汉、约瑟夫·S.奈：“多边合作的俱乐部模式与世界贸易组织：关于民主合法性问题的探讨”,载《世界经济与政治》2001年第12期,第63页。
21[法]让一马克·柯伊考：“国际组织与国际合法性：制约、问题与可能性”,载《国际社会科学杂志》2003年第2期,第21-22页。
22这些文章都收录在《国际组织》杂志2000年的一期讨论合法化的专辑,对国际制度合法化的原因与结果的分析参见Miles Kahler, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3,Summer2000,pp.661-683个案分析分别参见Beth A. Simmons, "The Legalization of International Monetary Affairs", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.573-602; Judith Goldstein and Lisa L. Martin, "Legalization, Trade Liberalization, and Domestic Politics:A Cautionary Note", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.603-632.
23[美]大卫·A.鲍德温主编：《新现实主义和新自由主义》,第153页。
24 Martha Finne more and Stephen J. Toope, "Alternatives to'Legalization':Richer Views of Law and Politics", International Organization, Vol.55, No.3, Summer2001, pp.743-758.
25 Thomas Risse-Kappen ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-state Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, p.32.
26一些学者已经注意到了非国家行为体与国际制度之间的关系,参见Oran R. Young, "Political Leadership and Regime Formation on Development of Institutions in International Society", International Organization, Vol.45, No.3, Summer1991, pp.281-308; Michael ZUrn, "Bring the Second Images (Back) in:About the Domestic Sources of Regime Formation", in Volker Rittberger ed., Regime Theory and International Relations, New York:Oxford University Press,1993, pp.282-311.
27 Volker Rittberger ed.,Regime Theory and International Relations, p.285.
28 Thomas Risse-Kappen ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-state Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions, pp.6-7.
29 Rob ert O. Keohane and Helen V. Milner eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996, p.7.
30[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,第205-207页。
31 Peter J. Katzenstein ed., Between Power and Plenty:Foreign Economic Policies of Advanced Industrial States, Madison:University of Wisconsin Press,1978.
32 Thomas Risse-Kappen ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in Non-state Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions, p.20.
33 Matthew Evangelist, "Domestic Structure and International Change", in Michael W. Doyle and G. John Ikenberry eds., New Thinking in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1997, p.203.
34 Miles Kahle r, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", p.666.
35 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.65.
36 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law",p.141.
37 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.186.
38 Mark Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-board Diplomacy", in Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Marc A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection,pp.75-132;Don Munton et al., Acid Rain in Europe and North America", in Oran R. Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms; J(?)rgen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, Hants:Edward Elgar,1999.
39 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.99其它持相似观点的学者作品有John C. Murdoch, Todd Sandler and Keith Sargent, "A Tale of Two Collectives:Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe", Economica, Vol.64,1997, pp.281-301.
40 Ron ald B.Mitchell, "The Relative Effects of Environmental Regimes:A Quantitative Comparison of Four Acid Rain Protocols".
41 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements.
42 J ohn C. Murdoch and Todd Sandler, "The Voluntary Provision of a Pure Public Good:The Case of Reduced CFC Emissions and the Montreal Protocol", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.63, No. 3, February 1997, pp.331-349.
43 Tobias Siegfried and Thomas Bernauer, "Estimating the Performance of International Regulatory Regimes:Methodology and Empirical Application to International Water Management in the Naryn/Syr Darya Basin", Water Resources Research, Vol.43,2007.
44 Do n Munton et al., Acid Rain in Europe and North America", in Oran R. Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms.1999.
45 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.76.
46 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.74.
47国内学者以国际法为主体研究国际制度的论述,请参见刘志云：“国际法的“合法性”根源、功能以及制度的互动：一种来自国际机制理论视角的诠释”,载《世界经济与政治》2009年第9期,第66-72页：王彦志：“什么是国际法学的贡献——通过跨学科合作打开国际制度的黑箱”,载《世界经济与政治》2010年第11期,第113-128页。以国际法为视角研究国际制度的论述,参见王铁军：“世界政治的法律化：国际制度主义理论的新探索”,载《世界经济与政治》2006年第11期,第40-46页。不过,总体来说,在国际制度领域,这方面的研究仍可加强。
48 Louis Henkin, How Nations Behave:Law and Foreign Policy, New York:Columbia University Press,1979, p.47.
4y Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements.
50遵约引力(the "pull" of compliance)由托马斯·弗兰克提出,参见Thomas M. Franck, The Power of Legitimacy among Nations, New York:Oxford University Press,1990.
51[美]爱迪·布朗·维斯：“理解国际环境协定的遵守：十三个似是而非的观念”，载王曦主《国际环境法与比较环境法评论》(第1卷),北京：法律出版社,2002年版,第107页。
52一个突出的例子是,20世纪90年代曾进行了一项跨国界、跨学科领域的遵约研究。来自11个国家的40位学者,集中研究了8个国家及欧盟对5个条约遵守情况,试图探询影响国家遵守从污染控制到自然资源保护这类国际环境协议的因素。这五个条约具体为：1972年签署的《伦敦议定书》、《世界遗产公约》、《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》、《国际热带木材协定》及《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》。参见Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1998同时期的其他相关经验研究参见Abram Chayes and Antionia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements; Edith Brown, David G.Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Evidence.
53 Kal Raustiala,"Compliance & Effectiveness in International Regulatory Cooperation", p.388.
54 Edith Br own Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson, "A Framework for Analysis", in Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, p.1, p.4.
55 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law", in Eyal Benvenisti and Moshe Hirsh eds., The Impact of International Law on International Cooperation:Theoretical Perspectives, p.140.
56 Oran Young, Compliance and Public Authority:A Theory with International Application, Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1979, p.172.
57 L isa L. Martin, "Against Compliance", Manuscript,2009, http://users.polisci.wisc.edu/irc/Martin.pdf.
58 Edith Br own Weiss,"Rethinking Compliance with International Law,"p.140.
59薄燕：“中国与国际环境机制：从国际履约角度进行的分析”,载《世界经济与政治》2005年第4期,第23-28页。
60 Ha rold K. Jacobson and Edith Brown Weiss, "Implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity:Lessons from a National Perspective", in Mats Rolen et al. eds., International Governance on Environmental Issues, Netherlands:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1997, p.83.
61 Peter F. Cowhey, "Domestic Institutions and the Credibility of International Commitments:The Cases of Japan and the United States", International Organization, Vol.47, No.2,1993, pp. 299-326.
62民主国家与遵约之间的关系,学术界进行了大量的研究。尽管学者们对遵约依赖于国内政治这一点没有疑问,但是民主国家是否与遵约成正比,仍然值得研究。部分学者就曾指出,在国际贸易及货币金融领域的案例中,民主国家的遵约水平比专制或集权国家差。戴欣媛也指出：选举的重要性并不意味民主国家比非民主国家倾向于遵守国际协定,因为选举对遵约的直接影响水平是由诸如选举压力和信息授权之类的针锋相对的国内利益属性决定的。因而,民主国家并没有展示出更高的遵约水平。参见Dai Xinyuan, "The Conditional Nature of Democratic Compliance", Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.50,No.5, October 2006, pp.690-713.而安妮-玛丽·斯劳特认为基于法律原则基础上的政府,特别是具有独立司法审判权的政府,倾向于遵约。参见Anne-Marie Slaughter, "International Law in a World of Liberal States", European Journal of International Law, Vol.6,No.4,1995,pp.503-538最新的一项相关研究更是通过同一民主体制下的选举人竞争来解释遵约的持续变化。参见Stephanie J. Rickard, "Democratic Differences:Electoral Institutions and Compliance with GATT/WTO Agreements", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.16, No.4,2010, pp.711-729.
63 Oo na A. Hathaway,"The Cost of Commitment", Stanford Law Review, Vol.55,2003, pp.1821-1862.
64 An drew T. Guzman, How International Law Works:A Rational Choice Theory, New York: Oxford University Press,2008.尤其是第三章的相关论述,具体参见该书第71-118页。
65 Geor ge W. Downs and Michael A. Jones,"Reputation, Compliance, and International Law", Journal of Legal Studies, Vol.31,2002, pp.95-114.
66 Jo nas Tallberg, "Paths to Compliance:Enforcement, Management, and the European Union", International Organization, Vol.56, No.3, Summer2002, pp.609-643.
67Kal Raustiala and Da vid G. Victor, "Conclusions", in David G. Victor et al. eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Evidence,p.681.
68 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law", pp.134-165.
69 La urence R. Helfer,"Exiting Treaties", Virginia Law Review, Vol.91,2005, p.1602. International Environmental Law," in Jutta Brunee et al. eds., Oxford Handbook of International
70 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Compliance Theory:Compliance, Effectiveness, and Behavior Change in
71有关主动遵约与被动遵约的论述参见Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and Paul R. Hensel, Environmental Law, p.895. "International Institutions and Compliance with Agreements", American Journal of Political Science, Vol.51, No.4, October 2007, p.734.
72 James Morrow, "When do States Follow the Laws of War?" American Political Science Review, Vol.101,2007, p.562.
73 Gerda Falkner et al., Complying with Europe:EU Harmonisation and Soft Law in the Membe States, New York:Cambridge University Press,2008.
74 An n Kent, Beyond Compliance:China, International Organizations, and Global Security, Stanford:Stanford University Press,2007.
75[美]亚布拉姆·蔡斯、安东尼娅·汉德勒·蔡斯：“论遵约”,载[美]莉莎·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯主编,黄仁伟、蔡鹏鸿等译：《国际制度》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版,第279 页。
76美国学者克拉托齐威尔(Friedrich Kratochwil)在研究遵守规范问题时提出了三种视角：一是霍布斯的或现实主义的立场,即行为体遵守规范是因为武力或武力威胁；二是休谟的理解,即行为体遵守规范是基于对长远效用的计算；三是涂尔干(Emile Durkheim)的观点,即规范是一种外在的约束个体选择的“社会事实”。参见Friedrich Kratochwil, "The Force of Prescription", International Organization, Vol.38, No.4,1984, p.686.转引自袁正清：《近年来国外国际组织与制度的研究进展》,载王逸舟主编：《国际政治理论与战略前沿问题》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007年版,第75-76页。实际上,霍布斯和休谟的立场可归为理性选择视角,而涂尔干的观点可纳入社会学视角。
77 M oshe Hirsch, "Compliance with International Norms", in Eyal Benvenisti and Moshe Hirsh eds., The Impact of International Law on International Cooperation:Theoretical Perspectives, pp.172-183
78 An drew T. Guzman, How International Law Works:A Rational Choice Theory. 79 Jeffrey T. Checkel,"Why Comply? Social Learning and European Identity Change", International Organization,Vol.55, No.3, Summer2001, p.553.
80Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law",p.141
81国际法的研究者承认了国际关系理论对其造成的影响。王晓丽一方面分析国际法尤其是国际环境法背景下遵约机制的特征及其成因,同时用经济学、国际关系学等相关学科的理论阐释了国际环境条约遵约机制的发生机理及内在范式。参见王晓丽：《国际环境条约遵约机制研究》,中国政法大学博士学位论文,2007年5月,未出版,第34页。
82 Ju dith Kelley, "Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements",The American Political Science Review, Vol.101, No.3,2007, p.573.
83[美]安妮-玛丽·斯劳特著：《世界新秩序》,任晓等译,上海：复旦大学出版社,2010年版,第177页。
84[美]爱迪·布朗·维斯：《理解国际环境协定的遵守：十三个似是而非的观念》,第110页。
85 Kal Raustiala and Anne-Marie Slaughter, "International Law, International Relations and Compliance", in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse and Beth Simmons eds., Handbook of International Relations, SAGE Publications Ltd,2002, p.553.
86 Daniel W. Drezner, All Politics is Global:Explaining International Regulatory Regimes, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2007.
87Rolf Lidskog and Goran Sundqvist, "The Role of Science in Environmental Regimes:the Case of LRTAP", pp.77-101.
88 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes,"On Compliance", International Organization, Vol.47, No.1,1993,pp.175-205.
89 L isa L. Martin,"Against Compliance",p.4.
90 Kal Raustiala and Anne-Marie Slaughter,"International Law, International Relations and Compliance", p.553.
91 Jeffrey T. Checkel,"Why Comply? Social Learning and European Identity Change", pp. 553-588.
92 Ja na Von Stein, "Do Treaties Constrain or Screen? Selection Bias and Treaty Compliance", American Political Science Review, Vol.99, No.4, pp.611-622.
93 Ju dith Kelley, "Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements",pp.576-578
94 Ju dith Kelley, "Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements",p.586.
95 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", in Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, p.19.
96[美]乔尔·S·米格代尔著：《强社会与弱国家——第三世界的国家社会关系及国家能力》,张民东等译,南京：江苏人民出版社,2009年版,第267页。
97 Daniel C. O'Neill, "Anne Kent.2007. Beyond Compliance:China, International Organizations, and Global Security",The Review of International Organizations, Vol.4,2009, p.106.
98 Martha Finne more and Kathryn Sikkink, "International Norm Dynamics and Political Change" International Organization, Vol.52, No.4, Autumn 1998, pp.887-917.
99 Beth A. Simmons and Lisa Martin, "International Organizations and Institutions", in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse-Kappen and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations,p.200.
100 Nicholas Onuf, World of Our Making:Rules and Rule in Social Theory and International Relations, Columbia:University of South Carolina Press,1989, p.261.
101 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes",pp.4-6.
102[美]安妮-玛丽·斯劳特著：《世界新秩序》,第179页。
103 M. J. Peterson, "International Organizations and the Implementation of Environmental Regimes",in Oran R.Young, ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, pp.115-116.
104[美]莉萨·L.马丁著：《民主国家的承诺：立法部门与国际合作》,刘宏松译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版,第6页。
105 A rild Underdal, "Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, p.33.
106[美]莉莎·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯主编：《国际制度》,第279页。
107[美]w.迈克尔·赖斯曼：“国际政治中软法的概念与作用”,载[美]W.迈克尔·赖斯曼著：《国际法：领悟与构建》,马轶南等译,北京：法律出版社,2007年版,第144页。
108 Beth A. Simmons,"Compliance with International Agreements", Annual Review Political Science, Vol.1,1998, pp.75-93.
109 Oran R.Young,Governance in World Affairs, p.124.
110王天夫：“社会研究中的因果分析”,第151页。
111 Geor ge W. Downs, "Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes", p.35.
112 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder, eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, p.64.
113 Beth A. Simmons and Lisa Martin, "International Organizations and Institutions",p.200.
114 Oran R. Young,"The Consequences of International Regimes:a Framework for Analysis", p.15.
115 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Compliance Theory:Compliance, Effectiveness, and Behavior Change in International Environmental Law", p.898.
116 Kosuke I mai, Luke Keele, and Dustin Tingley, A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2009.
117Kosuke I mai, Luke Keele, and Dustin Tingley, A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis,p.2.
118 Beth A. Simmons and Lisa Martin,"International Organizations and Institutions", p.200.
119 Arild U nderdal and Oran. R. Young, "Research Strategies for the Future:Where do We Go from Here?" pp.366-371.
120 L isa L. Martin,"Against Compliance", p.15.
121 L isa Martin,"Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies", pp.201-206.
122 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, Cambridge: MIT Press,1998, p. v.
123 Daniel A. Mazmanian and Paul A. Sabatier, Implementation and Public Policy, Chicago Foresman&Co.,1983.
124 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law",p.140.
125罗伯特·基欧汉指出：“国际制度与国际法本身的紧密联系,国际制度研究与国际法研究是两个不同学科对一个相近或交叉的事物在不同视角下的研究成果,因此,它们之间具有良好的可通约性以及相互借鉴之意义。”参见Robert 0. Keohane, "Compliance with International Commitments:Politics within a Framework of Law", The ASIL Proceedings,1992, pp.176-177.
126 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", in Oran R. Young ed., International Political Economy and International Institutions Volume II, UK:Edward Publishing Limited,1996, p.12.
127 David G. Victor,Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.1-14.
128Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of Acid Rain, p.13.
129 Scott Barret, "On the Theory and Diplomacy of Environmental Treaty-Making" Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol.11, No3-4,1998, pp.317-333.
130 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaersetha and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Regime, the State and Society Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments", WP-95-43, June 1995, p.27. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/WP-95-043.pdf.
131Oran R. Young, Creating Regimes:Arctic Accords and International Governance, Ithaca: Cornell University Press,1998, p.19.
132James C. Murdocha, Todd Sandlerb and Wim P.M. Vijverberga,"The Participation Decision versus the Level of Participation in an Environmental Treaty:A Spatial Probit Analysis", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, No.2, February2003, p.339.
133 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.15.
134梁西主编：《国际法》,武汉：武汉大学出版社,1993年版,第342页。
135需要指出的是,履行与帕特南提出的双层次博弈理论存在明显的区别。履行可以作为第三个层面的行动。尽管第二个层面的协商者和第一个层面的行为体可能存在对最终协议履行的预期,但在协商之前所考虑的履行是否符合协议达成之后的真正需求存在着疑问。简而言之,本文所论述的履行存在自身的政治逻辑和动态进程。有关双层次博弈理论的介绍参见Robert D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-level Games", in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D. Putnam eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, Berkeley:University of California Press,1993, pp.431-468.
136 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.15.
137粱西主编：《国际法》,第322页。
138 Oran R. Young ed.,International Political Economy and International Institutions Volume Ⅱ, p. ⅹ ⅱ.
139 Kal Raustiala and David G.Victor, "The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resource", in Beth A. Simmons and Richard H. Steinberg eds., International Law and International Relations, Cambridge:Cambridge University,2006, p.707.
140 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making",p.17.
141 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society: Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments, pp.5-6.
142 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society: Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments, p.11.
143 Kenneth Hanf a nd Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.4.
144 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", p.24.
145 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.14.
146 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.14.
147 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.7.
148 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.15.
149 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.6.
150 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society. Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments, p.30.
151国际环境领域履行研究的两部代表作分别为Kenneth Hanf., et.al,The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements:Modelling National/International Linkages, Netherlands: Erasmus University,1996; Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries: Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords.
152 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.9.
153 H.K. Jac obson, E. Brown Weiss, "Implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Lessons from a National Perspective," in Mats Rolen, Helen Sjoberg, and U.Svedin eds., International Governance on Environmental Issues, p.83.
154 S teinar Andresen and Jorgen Wettestad, "International Problem-Solving Effectiveness:The Oslo Project Story So Far", in Oran R.Young ed., International Political Economy and International Institutions Volumell, p.238.
155 Abram Chayes and Antonia Chayes, "On Compliance",p.194.
156 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", in Peter M. Haas, Robert Keohane and Marc Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, p.16.
157 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", p.17.
158 David G. Victor, "'Learning by Doing'in the Nonbinding International Regime to Manage Trade in Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.221-282.
159 Kal Raustiala and David G. Victor,"The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resource", p.705.
160 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society: Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments,pp.8-10.
161 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.15-16.该书研究显示目标集团的参与大体上有助于履行时更全面、更有效,也更现实。
162 S teinar Andresen and Jorgen Wettestad, "International Problem-Solving Effectiveness:The Oslo Project Story So Far", p.240.
163 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Institutional Aspects of Implementation, Compliance, and Effectiveness", in Urs Luterbacher and Detlef Sprinz eds., International Relations and Global Climate Change, Cambridge:MIT Press,2001, pp.222-223.
164 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.698.
165 Oran Young, International Governance:Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society
166 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.692.
167 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.17.
1 Oran R. Young, "Building Regimes for Socioecological Systems Institutional Diagnostics", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change: Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge:MIT Press,2008, pp.115-144.
2谢宇：《社会学方法与定量研究》,第40页。
3至少有三种规定因素使得个体议程具有优先性：行为者的活动是政治系统的看门人；单个问题的特定特征,比如对国际社会的重要性；议事领域文化规范的存在,例如,环境自觉的长期演进是国际环境问题持续受到关注的先决条件。
4 Helmut Breitmeie r, "International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", in Oran R.Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge:MIT Press,1997, p.91.
5 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,"Knowledge, Power, and Interests in Environmental Regime Formatio Source", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.47, No.1,2003, p.129.
6 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.56.
7徐再荣：“臭氧层损耗问题与国际社会的回应”,载《世界历史》2003年第3期,第21-28页。徐再荣：《全球环境问题与国际回应》,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007年版。
Karen Litfin, Ozone Discourses, p.52.
9 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.101.
10组织的国家间气象活动,起源于1853年布鲁塞尔气象会议以及于1873年成立的国际气象组织(IMO)开展的全球气象协调合作。IMO更是将早期的气象合作引向极致,并最终促成政府间的国际组织——世界气象组织(WMO)在1950年诞生,协调监督及交换信息是世界气象组织的主要任务。不过,直到1991年,正式的国际气候协商才开始。
11J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.125.
12 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.57.
13 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.103.
14 Helmut B reitmeier,:International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.104.
15 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,"Knowledge, Power, and Interests in Environmental Regime Formation Source", pp.123-150; Peter M. Haas, "Banning Chlorofluorocarbons:Epistemic Community Efforts to Protect Stratospheric Ozone", International Organization, Vol.46, No.1,Winter1992, pp.187-224.
16 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.112.
17以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,长春：吉林人民出版社,2000年版,第101页。
18再荣：“臭氧层损耗问题与国际社会的回应”,第28页。
Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.62.
20据《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》整理而成。具体参见万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第163-169页。1990年、1992年和1995年,分别在伦敦、哥本哈根和维也纳通过了三个补充议定书。
21 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.58.
22 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992,p.58.
23 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov, Science and International Environmental Policy:Regimes and Nonregimes in Global Governance, Rowman and Littlefield,2006.
24 Edward A.Parson, "The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime", in Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume Ⅲ, London:Sage Publications,2009, p.295.
25 Edward A.Parson,"The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime", p.296.
26[美]理查德·埃利奥特·本尼迪克：“从臭氧空洞中汲取的教训”,载《世界环境》1991年第3期,第16页。
27[埃]穆斯塔法·托尔巴：“需要再前进一步：十九个月后的蒙特利尔议定书——托尔巴博 士在蒙特利尔议定书缔约国第一次会议上的讲话”,载《世界环境》1989年第4期,第22页。
28 Paul Wapner, "Reorienting State Sovereignty:Rights and Responsibilities in the Environmental Age", in Karen T. Litfin ed., The Greening of Sovereignty in World Politics, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.286.
29王杰、张海滨、张志洲主编：《全球治理中的国际非政府组织》,北京：北京大学出版社,2004年版,第299页。
30 Paul Wapner, Environmental Activism and World Civic Politics, Albany, NY:State University of New York Press,1996, pp.127-128.
31 Barbara Bramble and Gareth Porter, "Non-Governmental Organizations and the Making of U.S. International Environmental Policy", in Andrew Hurrell and Benedict Kingsbury eds.,The International Politics of the Environment, Oxford:Clarendon Press,1992.
32[美]理查德·埃利奥特·本尼迪克：“从臭氧空洞中汲取的教训”,第17页。
33 Edward A. Parson, "Protecting the Ozone Layer:The Evolution and Impact of International Institutions", CSIA Discussion Paper 92-02, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 1991, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/discussion_paper_92_02.pdf.
34 Miles Kahle r, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", p.682.
35 Ju dith Goldstein, Miles Kahler, Robert O. Keohane, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, "Introduction: Legalization and World Politics", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, p.397.
36 Beth A.Simmons, "Compliance with International Agreements", in Nelson W. Polsby and Palo Alto eds., Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.1, Calif:Annual Reviews, Inc, p.78.
37万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第99-122页。
38[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,中国国家环境保护总局国际合作司译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002年版,第90页。
39 Jor gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, pp.154-155.
40[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002)),第91页。
Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies,p.62.
42约尔根·韦特斯塔德对此进行了很好的总结。参见J(?)rgen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.155不过也有学者认为臭氧层制度中的履行委员会只起到了接受、分析和上报缔约方提交非遵约秘书处的数据,因而在监督环境制度的遵约上存在问题。参见Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies, pp.62-63.
43参见[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第89页。
44 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.157.
45 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime.The Key Conditions, p.157.
461991年6月,在内罗毕召开的第三次议定书缔约国会议具有重要的影响,会议要求特设法律专家工作组在制定新的有关非遵约程序时应该：(1)找出议定书不遵守情事的可能情况；(2)制定一个咨询和调解措施的指示性清单,以鼓励全面遵守；(3)反映履行委员会作为一个咨询和调解机构的作用；同时铭记不遵守情事程序履行委员会的建议都必须提交缔约国会议作最后决定；(4)反映对议定书的规定可能需要作出法律解释：(5)制定一个指示性清单,列出缔约国会议对未遵守议定书的缔约国可能采取哪些措施,要考虑到需要向各国特别是发展中国家提供一切可能的援助,以使它们能够遵守议定书。第三次议定书缔约国会议导致了1992年第四次议定书缔约国会议所通过的不遵约程序。有关不遵守程序历次的调整与修正,可参见朱鹏飞：“论《蒙特利尔议定书》不遵守情事程序”,载《政治与法律》2008年第10期,第148-149页。
47哥本哈根会议是1992年联合国环境与发展大会之后举行的第一个主要国际环境大会,有关这次会议的详细论述参见Ian H. Rowlands, "The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection", Environment, Vol.35, No.6,1993, pp.25-34.
48朱鹏飞：“论《蒙特利尔议定书》不遵守情事程序”,第147页。
49 David G. Victor, "The Operation and Effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol's Non-compliance Procedure", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.137.
50 David G. Victor,"The Operation and Effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol's Non-compliance Procedure", p.139.
51J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.157
52 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.401.
53 Ron ald B.Mitchell, International Politics and the Environment, London:Sage Publications, 2010, p.28.
54 Edward A.Parson,"The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime", in Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume Ⅲ, p.291.
55参见[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第87页。
56 Ian H. Rowlands, "The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection", p.25.
57[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第87-90页。
58 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O. Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.401.
59 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.415.
60 Curtis A. Bradley, Judith G. Kelley, "The Concept of International Delegation", Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.71, No.1,2008, p.102.美国知名杂志《法律与当代问题》(Law and Contemporary Problems)于2008年第一期推出了“国际授权的法律与政治”的专刊,柯蒂斯·布拉德利、朱迪斯·凯利卡伦·奥尔特(Karen J. Alter)、劳伦斯·希弗(Laurence R. Helfer)、乌纳·海瑟薇等国际法学者围绕着授权的基本概念、授权与主权、授权的实际运用等方面展开了热烈讨论。参见Curtis A. Bradley, Judith G.. Kelley eds., "The Law and Politics of International Delegation",Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.71, No.1,2008.
61 Edward T. Swaine, "The Constitutionality of International Delegations", Columbia Law Review, 2004, Vol.104, p.1494.
62 Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney, "Delegation under Anarchy:States, International Organizations, and Principal-agent Theory", in Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney eds., Delegation and Agency in International Organizations, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006, p.7.
63 L isa L. Martin, "Distribution, Information, and Delegation to International Organizations:The Case of IMF Conditionality", in Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney eds., Delegation and Agency in International Organizations, p.140.
64见[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002)),第91-92页。
65 Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney, "Delegation under Anarchy:States, International Organizations, and Principal-agent Theory", pp.17-18.
66世界环境与发展委员会编：《我们共同的未来》,国家环保局外事办公室译,北京：世界知识出版社,1989年版,第319页。
67 Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, p.2.
68 Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney, "Delegation under Anarchy:States, International Organizations, and Principal-agent Theory", p.18.
69 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.406.
70 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.406.
71 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", pp.406-407.
72 David G. Victor, "The Operation and Effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol's Non-compliance Procedure", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments, pp.137-176.
73 Owen Greene, "The System for Implementation Review in the Ozone Regime", in David G. Victor, Kai Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments, p.90.
74 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:
The Case of Acid Rain, pp.1-2.
75 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.42.
76 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.35.
77 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.63.
78 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.64.
79 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacv.New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet.p.39. Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, Boulder, CO:Westview
80 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D.Dabelko eds., Press,1998, p.143.
81 Paul Wapner, Environmental Activism and World Civic Politics, p.131.
82 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet", p.144.相关的介绍也可参见徐再荣：“臭氧层损耗问题与国际社会的回应”,第28页。
83 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet" pp.144-145.
84夏正伟、梁天亮：“试析里根政府的臭氧环境外交”,载《历史教学问题》2010年第4期,第15页。
85齐皓：“国际环境问题合作的成败——基于国际气候系统损害的研究”,载《国际政治科学》2010年第4期,第92页。
86邱桂荣：“环境领域的中美关系”,载李铁城、钱文荣主编：《联合国框架下的中美关系》,北京：人民出版社,2006年版,第358页。
87夏正伟、梁天亮：“试析里根政府的臭氧环境外交”,第17-18页。
88齐皓：“国际环境问题合作的成败——基于国际气候系统损害的研究”,第96-97页。事实上,从1930年托马斯·米奇利(Thomas Midgely)发明了基于CFC-12(氟氯碳化物的一种)的冰箱制冷剂以来,氟里昂大量应用于工业生产,成为冰箱的制冷剂,杜邦公司一直是这一臭氧层破坏元凶的重要生产商。
89最近的一篇研究文章认为在气候变化这一问题领域,合作前景很悲观,原因是合作的未来收益模糊而现实成本巨大,该研究突破了侧重于交易成本的传统研究,对气候谈判的前景有启发意义。参见齐皓：“国际环境问题合作的成败——基于国际气候系统损害的研究”,第82-111页。不过,在国际臭氧层保护领域,由于坚信“等科学证据确凿时,破坏已经无法挽回”,果断的国际合作行动促成了国际臭氧层保护制度成为国际环境保护领域成功的模式,成为解决全球生态危机的新典范。
90 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.107.
91杜邦公司的转变与美国政府的政策有关,1978年,美国政府出台政策,禁止使用气溶推进剂(aerosol propellants),促使像杜邦公司这样的大企业寻求替代物。参见Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World, 1973-1992, p.57.
92穆斯塔法·托尔巴在1985年维也纳召开的会议上指出：“1993年,CFC-11、CFC-12两种物质比1992年增加了百分之七。气雾剂型和非气雾剂型的使用都增加了。”在协议签订前的最后阶段,托尔巴召集关键利益方开了几次非正式会议,讨论他自己提交的《蒙特利尔议定书》的草本。他支持氟氢碳化物管制的渐进方案,冻结并逐步减少使用氟氢碳化物。具体参见Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, pp.83-87.
93 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko eds. Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, p.146.
94 Jeffrey T. Checkel,"Norms, Institutions and National Identity in Contemporary Europe", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.43,1999, pp.83-114.
95 An drew P. Cortell and James W. Davis, Jr., "Understanding the Domestic Impact of International Norms:A Research Agenda", International Studies Review, Vol.2, No.1, Spring2000, p.86.
96 Charles W. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf, American Foreign Policy:Pattern and Process, New York:ST. Martin Press,1996, p.100.
97杨洁篪：“合作共赢是中国与各国关系主导面”,载《解放日报》2011年3月8日,第4版。
98 Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", in Karen T. Litfin ed., The Greening of Sovereignty in World Politics, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, pp.178-179.
99 Jo ao Augusto de Araujo Castro, "Environment and Development:The Case of the Developing Countries", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko eds., Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, p.39.
100 Jo ao Augusto de Araujo Castro, "Environment and Development:The Case of the Developing Countries", p.39.
101 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.130.
102 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.148.
103 Ian H. Rowlands, "The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection", Environment, Vol.35, No.6,1993, pp.25-34.
104 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.129.
105在《蒙特利尔议定书》签订时,只占世界人口25%不到的发达国家,消耗了世界88%的氟氯碳化物；发达国家的人均消费量是发展中国家的20倍。但这种情况很快就发生了改变,单就中国而言,当时人均消费量氟氯碳化物只是欧共体集团和美国的1/40,而今,中国早已是世界上最主要的氟氯碳化物消费国,即使考虑到人口因素,这种增长也是显而易见的。客观地说,发展中国家的这种潜能将削弱刚刚建立的国际臭氧层保护制度的有效性。
106 Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", pp.177-178.
107Jo ao Augusto de Araujo Castro, "Environment and Development:The Case of the Developing Countries", p.33.
108万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第169页。
109万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第197页。
110玛利亚·米勒是关注发展研究与环境研究、国际环境问题与第三世界之间关系的知名学者,1996年其著作《全球环境政治中的第三世界》获得了国际研究协会环境研究分会的Sprout奖,成为国际环境政治领域的一部重要著作。可惜,玛利亚·米勒因患非霍奇金淋巴瘤(non-Hodgkin's lymphoma)于2003年病逝,年仅53岁。《全球环境政治》杂志于2005年第3期以“全球南方与环境”为题,出版了纪念特刊。参见Jennifer Clapp, "Special Issue:The Global South and the Environment Essays in Memory of Marian A.L. Miller",Global Environmental Politics,Vol.5, No.3, August2005.
111Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", p.175.
112 Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", p.190.
113 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.152.
114 Marian A.L. Miller, The Third World in Global Environmental Politics, Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers,1995, p.80.
115 Multi ateral Fund, Creating a Real Change for the Environment, Montreal:Multilateral Fund Secretariat,2005, p.2-7.
116 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.158.
117 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.316.
118 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,Science and International Environmental Policy:Regimes and Nonregimes in Global Governance, pp.63-64.
119 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,Science and International Environmental Policy:Regimes and Nonregimes in Global Governance, p.63.
120 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.317.
121 Ian H. Rowlands,"The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection",pp.25-34.
122 R umen D. Bojkov, The Changing Ozone Layer, Geneva:WTO/UNEP,1995, forward.
123 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko eds., Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, p.148.
124 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.138.
125比如,爱德华·帕森论述了影响国际臭氧层制度的因素,包括氟氯碳化物替代技术的可利用程度,关注臭氧层损耗的科学基础,协商的制度文本,活动分子授权联盟,美国的领导和权威评估。参见Edward A.Parson, "The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime",p.293罗纳德·米切尔也在给笔者的电子邮件中指出,对制度有效性影响因素需要做具体、深入的研究。
1 Ron aid B. Mitchell,International Politics and the Environment, p.10.
2西方学术界有关空气污染管制的著作众多,代表性的著作有John McCormick,Acid Earth, London:Earthscan,1989; Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen and Jim Skea,Acid Politics:Environmental and Energy Policies in Britain and Germany, London:Belhaven Press,1991; Thomas Gehring, Dynamic International Regimes:Institutions for International Environmental Governance, Frankfurt:Peter Lang,1994; Jorgen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, Hants:Edward Elgar,1999; Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:The Case of Acid Rain, Burlington:Ashgate, 2000.
3 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", American Journal of Political Science, Vol.49, No.1,2005, p.86.
4 Mark Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Mark Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, p.75.
5 Mark Lev y, "International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", in Helge Ole Bergesen, Georg Parmann and (?)ystein B. Thommessen eds., Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, p.59.
6 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.216.
7[挪]约根·维特斯塔：“1999年多污染因子议定书：是一个在解决欧洲大气污染方面被忽视的突破吗?”,载[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,中国国家环境保护总局国际合作司译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002年版,第25页。
8 A bram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes,The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements, p.183.
9 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions,, pp.85-86.
10[埃]穆斯塔法·托尔巴：“联合国环境规划署呼吁控制酸雨——托尔巴博士在欧洲空气污染多国会议上的讲话”,载《世界环境》1985年第3期,第20页。
11 Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.84.
12从国际制度理论视角对欧洲酸雨机制的研究包括:Mark Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Mark Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, pp.75-132; Detlef F. Sprinz, "Domestic Politics and European Acid Rain Regulation", in Arild Underdal ed., The Politics of International Environmental Management, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1995, pp.41-66.
13本部分的内容参见Dai Xinyuan, "Why Comply? The Domestic Constituency Mechanism". International Organization, Vol.59, No.2,Spring2005, pp.363-398.
14 Xinyuan Dai,International Institutions and National Policies, p.89.
15 Helmut Breitmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, pp.73-110.
16 R onald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.62.
17 Ron ald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.62.
18 Oran R.Young, "Are Institutions Intervening Variables or Basic Causal Forces? Causal Clusters vs. Causal Chains in International Society", in Michael Breecher and Frank Harvey eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2002, pp.176-191.
19 Geor ge Downs, David Rocke and Peter Barsoom,"Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation", International Organization, Vol.50, No.3,1996, pp.379-406.
20 Ron aid B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.61.
21 Ron ald B. Mitchell, "A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.64.
22 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.67.
23 James C. Murdoch, Tod Sandler and Keith Sargent, " A Tale of Two Collectives:Sulphur Versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe", Economica,Vol.64, May 1997, pp.281-301.
24国际制度对非成员国作用的动因何在,其作用是否等同于对成员国的作用,对这些问题的回答是当前研究所缺乏的。王玮对此进行了初步的考察,他认为如果非成员国同国际制度互动的渠道存在且非成员国对互动渠道有一定的依赖,那么国际制度将构成制约非成员国行为的社会环境。参见王玮：“国际制度对非成员国的作用”,载《国际观察》2009年第2期,第65-72页。
25 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.68.
26 Beth Simmons, "Compliance in International Relations", Paper Presented at the 2000 Annual Meeting of APS A, August 31-Semtember 3,2000, Washington, DC.
27 Edith Br own Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1998, p.4.
28 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.30.
29 Helmut Breitmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.110.
30 Helmut Bre itmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Ziirn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.112.
31 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions; Jorge Wettestad, Clearing the Air-European Advances in Tackling Acid Rain and Atmospheric Pollution, Burlington:Ashgate,2002.
32M arc A. Levy, "International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", in Helge Ole Bergese Georg Parmann and Oystein B. Thommessen eds., Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, p.59.
33[挪]约根·维特斯塔：“1999年多污染因子议定书：是一个在解决欧洲大气污染方面被忽视的突破吗?”,第26页。
34Ron ald B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1994, p.30.
35[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第74页
6 Jo hn McCormick, "Acid Pollution:The International Community's Continuing Struggle", Environment, Vol.40, No.3,1998, p.19.
37Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A.Levy, "Acid Rain in Europe and North America", in Oran R. Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1999, p.234.
38 M arc A. Levy,"International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", p.60.
39 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.132.
40 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy",p.132.
41 Jo hn McCormick, "Acid Pollution:The International Community's Continuing Struggle", p.21.
42酸雨问题是美加两国环境外交的重要部分,历史学领域研究者进行了很好的阐述,参见杨令侠：“加拿大与美国关于酸雨的环境外交”,载《南开学报(哲学社会科学版)》2002年第3期,第118-124页。
M arc A. Levy,"International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", p.60.
44二氧化硫给欧共体带来的损失参见Graham Bennet, Dilemmas:Coping with Environmental Problems, London:Earthscan,1992, pp.103-104.
" Jo hn McCormick, "Acid Pollution:The International Community's Continuing Struggle", p.43.
46临界负荷”被定义为“暴露在一种或者多种污染物下量化的估计数,当低于该数值时,依据目前人们掌握的知识不会对环境的特定敏感因素产生重大的有害影响”。参见Marc Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter M. Haas, Robert Keohane and Marc Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, p.24.一般认为,当前临界负荷最低的地区是瑞典、芬兰、英德北部地区,需要将硫排放量减少90%才能处于临界负荷之下。
47 Arild U nderdal, "One Question, Two Answers", in Ronald B. Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume Ⅲ, London:Sage Publications,2009, pp.15-21.
48 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.90.
49 Mark Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy"; J(?)rgen Wettestad, "The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution", in Edward L.Miles, Arild Underdal, Steinar Andresen, J(?)rgen Wettestad, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and Elaine M. Carlin eds., Environmental Regime Effectiveness:Confronting Theory with Evidence, pp.197-221
50 A rild Underdal, "Concetptual Framework:Modelling Supply of and Demand for Environmental Regulation", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:The Case of Acid Rain, Ashgate:Aldershot, 2000, pp.49-86.
51 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.99.
52 J ohn C. Murdoch and Todd Sandler, "Voluntary Cutbacks and Pretreaty Behavior:The Helsinki Protocol and Sulfur Emissions", Public Finance Review, Vol.25, No.139,1997, p.142.
53 J ohn C. Murdoch, Todd Sandler and Wim Vijverberg,"The Participation Decision Versus the Level of Participation in an Environmental Treaty:A Spatial Probit Analysis", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, No.2, February2003, pp.337-362.
54 J ohn C. Murdoch, Todd Sandler and Keith Sargent, "A Tale of Two Collectives:Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe", Economica, Vol.64,1997, pp.281-301.
55奥斯陆-波茨坦方案中“没有机制”的有效性分值是0,“完美状态”上界有效性分值是1。参见Carsten Helm and Detlef F. Sprinz," Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.630-632。
56 Ron ald B.Mitchell, "The Relative Effects of Environmental Regimes:A Quantitative Comparison of Four Acid Rain Protocols", Paper presented at the 2003 International Studies Association Conference, Portland, Oregon, February 2003.
57 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.91.
58 Jor gen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway:Different Approaches, but Similar Results?" in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.383.
59其中德国与其它两个国家存在一定差别,德国科学家伯恩哈德·鸟尔里希(Bernhard Ulrich)注意到了酸雨对德国森林的破坏,相关研究于1981年11月发表在德国知名的《明镜》杂志上,很快引起了德国民众的广泛关注。
60 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.120.
61 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.127.
62 Ron ald B. Mitchell,International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.32.
63 Ron ald B. Mitchell,International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.31.
64[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002)),第74-75页。
65 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.124.
66 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.117.
67J(?)r gen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway:Different Approaches, but Similar Results?" p.384;Kenneth Hanf, "The Problem of Long-Range Transport of Air Pollution and the Acidification Regime", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of Acid Rain, Burlington:Ashgate,2000, p.33.
68 Marc A. Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.96.
69 EM EP, "The 1988 Sofia Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or Their Transboundary Fluxes", http://unece.org/env/lrtap/full%20text/1988.NOX.e.pdf.译文引自[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1999/2000》,中国国家环境保护总局国际合作司译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2001年版,第80页。
70 Kenneth Hanf, "The Problem of Long-Range Transport of Air Pollution and the Acidification Regime", p.35.
71 Marc A. Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", pp.97-98.
72 Mark Lev y, "International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", in Helge Ole Bergesen, Georg Parmann and (?)ystein B. Thommessen eds., Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, p.66.也可参见[挪]马克·列维：“与酸雨斗争的国际合作”,载[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1995》,国家环境保护局译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,1995年版。
73 Jor gen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway: Different Approaches, but Similar Results?" p.388.
74[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1999/2000》,第84页。
75 Elizabeth R.Desombre,The Global Environment and World Politics, p.231-231.
76 Ju an Carlos di Primio, "Data Quality and Compliance Control in the European Air Pollution Regime", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.283.
" Ju an Carlos di Primio,"Data Quality and Compliance Control in the European Air Pollution Regime", p.287.
78 Jor gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",Global Environmental Change, Vol.7, No.3, p.237.
79[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1999/2000》,第85页。
David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.51-52
81 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.305.
82戴维·维克特等人认为国家层面上影响履行的因素不光是参与,还有转型(transition)因素、公众关注的水平以及提升环境质量的压力等不可分割的因素。参见David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.305-306.
83 Rolf Lidskog and Goran Sundqvist, "The Role of Science in Environmental Regimes:The Case of LRTAP", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.8, No.1,2002, pp.77-101.
84 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.310.
85 Arild U nderdal, "Comparative Analysis:Accounting for Variance and Actor Behavior", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of Acid Rain, Ashgate:Aldershot,2000, p.349.
86挪威、英国的案例参见J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway:Different Approaches, but Similar Results?"pp.381-429.
87 J(?)r gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",p.239.
88 Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A. Levy,"Acid Rain in Europe and North America", p.175.
89 Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A. Levy,"Acid Rain in Europe and North America", p.236.
90 Jor gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",p.241.
91J(?)r gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",pp.242-243.
92 Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A.Levy,"Acid Rain in Europe and North America",pp.179-180
93 Ron aid B. Mitchell,"International Environment", in Thomas Risse, Beth Simmons, and Walter Carlsnaes eds., Handbook of International Relations, California:Sage Publications,2002,p.500.
1 Rob ert O. Keohane, "Big Questions in the Study of World Politics", in Christian Reus-Smit and Duncan Snidal eds., The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2008, p.713.
2 F rank Biermann, Philipp Pattberg, Harro van Asselt and Fariborz Zelli, "The Fragmentation of Global Governance Architectures:A Framework for Analysis", Global Environmental Politics, Vol. 9, No.4,2009, pp.14-40.
3参见Oran R.Young, Institutional Dynamics:Emergent Patterns in International Environmental Governance, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2010奥兰·扬是继罗伯特·基欧汉之外的另一位国际制度研究大家,他对制度议题的敏锐发现、持续关注以及具有饱满的研究热情为后来者所称道。
4 Euge ne A. Rosa and Thomas Dietz, "Global Transformations:Passage to a New Ecological Era", in Eugene A. Rosa, Andreas Diekmann, Thomas Dietz and Carlo Jaeger eds., Human Footprints on the Global Environment Threats to Sustainability, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2010,p.35.
5石斌：“相互依赖·国际制度·全球治理——罗伯特·基欧汉的世界政治思想”,载《国际政治研究》2005年第4期,第41页。
6 Oran R. Young, "Regime Theory and the Quest for Global Governance", in Alice D. Ba and Matthew J. Hoffmann eds., Contending Perspectives on Global Governance:Coherence, Contestation and World Order, London and New York:Routledge,2005, pp.89-90.
Kal Raustiala and David G. Victor,"The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resources", International Organization, Vol.58, No.2,2004, p.279.
8 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2006该书认为应该关注数据库的质量控制(quality control)、兼容性(compatibility)以及许可(access)
9 Geor ge W. Downs, "Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes", p.26.
10刘青建：《发展中国家与国际制度》,第86页。
Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.62.
12刘青建：“发展中国家国际制度选择的困境及其理性思考”,载《世界经济与政治》2002年第12期,第43-48页；刘青建：“发展中国家的国际脆弱性与南北关系的发展前景”,载《教学与研究》2003年第6期,第69-73页。
S tephen D. Krasner, Structural Conflict:The Third World against Global Liberalism, California: University of California Press,1985, p.75中译本可参见[美]斯蒂芬·D.克莱斯勒著：《结构冲突：第三世界对抗全球自由主义》,李小华译,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2001年版,第72页。
14 Elizabeth R.Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.63.
15苏长和：“新制度主义与旧制度主义——国际政治生活中的制度因素”,载徐以骅主编：《世纪之交的国际关系》,上海：上海远东出版社,2002年版,第87-89页。
16 Ron aid B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.334.
17 Marian A.L. Miller, The Third World in Global Environmental Politics, p.152.
18周雪光：《组织社会学十讲》,第174页。
19谢喆平、张小劲：“传授与学习：中国参与联合国教科文组织的经验研究”,载《外交评论》2011年第1期,第48-59页。
20 Daniel Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:The Interaction of Domestic and International Institutions.2003.
21 Marian A.L. Miller, The Third World in Global Environmental Politics, p.139.
22 Michael Bar nett and Martha Finnemore, Rules for the World:International Organizations in Global Politics, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,2004, p.12.
23[美]江忆恩：“美国学者关于中国与国际组织关系研究概述”,载《世界经济与政治》2001年第8期,第48-53页。
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Lisa L.Martin, "Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies",The Review of International Organizations, Vol.3, No.2,2008, pp.201-206.
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Miles Kahler, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.661-683.
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Oran R.Young, "Determining Regime Effectiveness:A Commentary on the
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Oran R.Young and Michael Zurn, "The International Regimes Database:Designing and Using a Sophisticated Tool for Institutional Analysis", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.6, No.3, August 2006, pp.121-143.
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UNECE, "Status of Ratification of The 1988 Sofia Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or Their Transboundary Fluxes", http://unece.org/env/lrtap/status/88n_st.htm.
Xinyuan Dai,"Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.8, No.3, August 2008, pp.154-158.
2 Rob ert O. Keohane, "International Institutions:Can Interdependence Work?" Foreign Policy, No.110, Spring1998,p.8.
3 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", American Journal of Political Science,Vol.49,No.1,2005, p.86相似地,奥兰·扬认为过去近40年,国际机制或跨国机制的研究者首先关注机制形成方面的研究；随着时间的推移,机制文献主要讨论了三个主题：关注现存机制的维持,机制的形成以及机制结果。参见Oran R.Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press, 1997, pp.9-32.
4 L isa L.Martin and Beth A.Simmons, "Theories and Empirical Studies of International Institutions",International Organization, Vol.52, No.4, Autumn 1998, p.729.
5 Michael Ziirn, "The Rise of International Environmental Politics:A Review of Current Research", World Politics, Vol.50, No.4,1998, p.69.
6 Du ncan Snidal, "International Political Economy Approaches to International Institutions", in Jagdeep S. Bhandari and A. O. Sykes eds., Economic Dimensions in International Law: Comparative and Empirical Perspectives, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997,p.477.
'Arild U nderdal and Oran R. Young, "Research Strategies for the Future:Where Do We Go from Here?" in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, pp.364-365.
8 Ron aid B. Mitchell,"The Influence of International Institutions:Institutional Design, Compliance, Effectiveness, and Endogeneity", in Helen V. Milner and Andrew Moravcsik eds., Power, Interdependence, and Nonstate Actors in World Politics, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2009, pp.66-86.
9 Ari Id Underdal and Oran R. Young, "Research Strategies for the Future:Where Do We Go from Here?"pp.366-371.
10 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "The Influence of International Institutions:Institutional Design, Compliance, Effectiveness, and Endogeneity", p.72.
11 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Compliance Theory:Compliance, Effectiveness, and Behavior Change in International Environmental Law", in Jutta Brunee, Daniel Bodansky, and Ellen Hey eds., Oxford Handbook of International Environmental Law, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2007, p.900.
12 Ron ald B. Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008, p.113.
13[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第135页。
14 Oran R.Young,Governance in World Affairs, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1999,p.114.
15[美]詹姆斯·马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“新制度主义详述”,载《国外理论动态》2010年第7期,第44页。
16 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", Global Environmental Politics, Vol. 1,No.1, February 2001, p.118.
17 L isa Martin,"Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.3, No.2,2008, pp.201-206.
18 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1995.
19 Geor ge Downs, David Rocke and Peter Barsoom, "Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation", International Organization,Vol.50, No.3,1996, pp.379-406.
20卡斯蒂利亚是西班牙的前身,现西班牙中部和北部一地区。
21 Ron ald B. Mitchell, International Politics and the Environment, London:Sage Publications, 2010, pp.26-28.
22转引自张海滨：《环境与国际关系：全球环境问题的理性思考》,上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版,第6页。
23国家环境保护总局国际合作司等编：《联合国环境与可持续发展：系列大会重要文件选编》,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2004年版,第4页。
24 T amar Gutner and Alexander Thompson, "The Politics of IO Performance:A Framework", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5, No.3,2010, p.230.
25在2010年第3期的《国际组织评论》上,刊载了有关国际组织绩效的专辑。参见Tamar Gutner and Alexander Thompson eds., "Special Issue on the Politics of IO Performance", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5, No.3,2010.
26[美]本杰明·J.科恩著：《国际政治经济学——学科思想史》,杨毅、钟飞腾译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版,第123页。
27 Kenneth Abbott and Duncan Snidal,"International Regulation without International Government:Improving IO Performance through Orchestration", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5,No.3,2010,pp.315-344.
28 S tephen Krasner, "Structural Causes and Regime Consequences:Regimes as Intervening Variables", International Organization, Vol.36, No.2, Spring1982, p.186.
29 Rob ert O. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays on International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview,1989, p.3.
30 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Ziirn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2006, p.8.
31A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2008, p.54.
32 Jo hn Duffield, "What are International Institutions", The International Studies Review,Vol.9, No.1, Spring2007, pp.1-22.
" A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.54.
34苏长和：“重新定义国际制度”,载《欧洲研究》1999年第6期,第26页。
35[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,载[美]詹姆斯N·罗西瑙主编：《没有政府的治理》,张胜军等译,南昌：江西人民出版社,2001年版,第187页。
36 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes, "in Oran R.Young ed.,The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms,Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1999,p.3.
37 Hu gh Ward, Grank Grundig, and Ethan Zorick, "Formal Theory and Regime Effectiveness: Rational Players, Irrational Regimes,"in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004.
Ron aid B.Mitchell,International Politics and the Environment, p.146.
39 Olav Schram S tokke, "Examining the Consequences of Arctic Regimes", in Geir Honneland and Olav Schram Stokke eds., International Cooperation and Arctic Governance:Regime Effectiveness and Northern Region Building, London:Routledge,2007, pp.15-16.
40 Sey mour Martin Lipset, Political Man:The Social Bases of Politics, London:Heinemann,1983, p.65. 41 T amar Gutner and Alexander Thompson, "The Politics of IO Performance:A Framework", The Review of International Organizations, Vol.5, No.3,2010, p.231.
42 薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”,载《外交评论》2006年第6期,第56页。
43 Arild U nderdal, "One Question, Two Answers", in Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume III, London:Sage Publications,2009, pp.32-33.
44 Oran R. Young, "Institutions and Environmental Change:The Scientific of Legacy of a Decade of IDGEC Research", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008, p.19.
45 Kal Raustiala, "Compliance & Effectiveness in International Regulatory Cooperation,"Western Reserve Journal of International Law, Vol.32,2000, p.388.
46 L isa L.Martin, "Against Compliance", Manuscript,2009, http://users.polisci.wisc.edu/irc/Martin.pdf.
47 Edith Br own Weiss,"Rethinking Compliance with International Law", in Eyal Benvenisti and Moshe Hirsh eds., The Impact of International Law on International Cooperation:Theoretical Perspectives, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2004, p.140.
48 V inod K. Aggarwal, Liberal Protectionism:The International Politics of Organized Textile Trade, Berkeley:University of California Press,1985, pp.20-21.
49 Mark W. Zacher, "Trade Gaps, Analytical Gaps:Regime Analysis and International Commodity Trade Regulation," International Organization, Vol.41, No.2,1987, p.117.
50 S tephan Haggard and Beth A. Simmons,"Theories of International Regimes," International Organization, Vol.41, No.3, Summer1987, p.496.
51 An dreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, Volker Rittberger, "Does Regime Robustness Require a Fair Distribution of the Gains from Cooperation?" in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, pp.193-195.
" A rild Underdal, "Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness," in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, pp.28-31.
53 [美]詹姆斯·马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“新制度主义详述”,第43-44页。
54 秦亚青：“译者前言：国际关系理论的争鸣、融合与创新”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,秦亚青等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版,第2页。
55 Rob ert O. Keohane, "International Institutions:Can Interdependence Work?" p.8.
56 近10年来,西方有关国际制度理论的主要学术著作有：Judith Goldstein, Miles Kahler, and Anne-Marie Slaughter eds., Legalization and World Politics, Cambridge:MIT Press,2001;Daniel Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:The Interaction of Domestic and International Institutions, Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,2002;Barbara Koremenos, Charles Lipson and Duncan Snidal eds., The Rational Design of International Institutions, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2003; Lisa L. Martin ed., International Institutions in the New Global Economy, Cheltenham, UK:Edward Elgar Publishing,2005; Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney eds., Delegation and Agency in International Organizations, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006; Helen V. Milner and Andrew Moravcsik eds., Power, Interdependence, and Non-State Actors in World Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press,2009.
57 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.86.
58 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.27, No.3, Winter 1992, pp.227-240; Thomas Bernauer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We Might Learn More ", International Organization, Vol.49, No.2, Spring 1995, pp.351-377.
59奥兰·扬对国际制度的论述主要围绕从机制形成到制度效果。一方面,将制度作为框架,论证制度的形成、遵约、履行与变迁等：另一方面,论述广义上的制度效果或结果,尤其关注全球治理中的制度因素,其核心就是制度的有效性。在有效性研究领域,奥兰·扬的主要著作包括：Oran Young, International Governance:Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society, Ithaca, New York:Cornell University Press,1994; Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT press, 1997; Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic,2004; Oran R. Young, Leslie A.King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008另一本著作中文版参见[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,陈玉刚、薄燕译,上海：上海人民出版社,2007年版。罗纳德·米切尔的主要作品包括：Ronald B.Mitchell, International Politics and the Environment, London:Sage Publications,2010; Ronald B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea: Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1994此外,在罗纳德·米切尔主编的四卷本《国际环境政治》中,第三卷集中论述了国际制度的有效性,具体包括作为概念的有效性、影响制度有效性的因素及方法论三部分。参见Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Four-Volume Set, London:Sage Publications,2009.
60 Olav Schram S tokke, Governing High Seas Fisheries:the Interplay of Global and Regional Regimes, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2001;Thomas Gehring and Sebastian Oberthur, "The Causal Mechanisms of Interaction between International Institutions", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.15, No.1,2009, pp.125-156制度互动的介绍也可参见孔凡伟：“制度互动研究：国际制度研究的新领域”,载《国际观察》2009年第3期,第46页。
61 V ictor Galaz et al., "The Problem of Fit among Biophysical Systems, Environmental and Resource Regimes, and Broader Governance Systems:Insights and Emerging Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change: Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2008, pp.147-186.
62倪世雄：《战争与道义：核伦理学的兴起》,长沙：湖南出版社,1992年版。事实上,在该书出版前一年,倪世雄教授在《国际展望》杂志上撰文解释了国际机制论,参见倪世雄：“80年代西方国际关系理论简介之四：国际机制论”,载《国际展望》1991年第9期,第20-21页。
63王逸舟：《当代国际政治析论》,上海：上海人民出版社,1995年版。
64屠启宇：“国家、市场与制度——国际制度论述评”,载《世界经济与政治》1997年第8期,第22-26页。
65[美]罗伯特·艾克斯罗德著：《对策中的制胜之道》,吴坚忠译,上海：上海人民出版社,1996年版(该书的修订版2009年由上海人民出版社出版,书名改为《合作的进化》)；[美]罗伯特·基欧汉著：《霸权之后：世界政治经济中的合作与纷争》,苏长和等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2001年版；[美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈著：《权力与相互依赖》(第3版),门洪华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版；[美]罗伯特·基欧汉、海伦·米尔纳主编：《国际化与国内政治》,姜鹏,董素华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版；[美]约翰·鲁杰著：《多边主义》,苏长和等译,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2003年版；[美]朱迪斯·戈尔茨坦、罗伯特·O.基欧汉编：《观念与外交政策：信念、制度与政治变迁》,刘东国、于军译, 北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版：[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,秦亚青等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版：[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,陈玉刚、薄燕译,上海：上海人民出版社,2007年版；[美]肯尼斯·奥耶著：《无政府状态下的合作》,田野、辛平译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版。此外,北京大学出版社世界政治与国际关系原版影印丛书中有一本《国际机制》,也被介绍到国内。参见斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《国际机制》,北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版。在国际制度有效性研究方面,奥兰·扬的一篇论文《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》在2001年被引入国内,引起了学界关注。该文对国际制度有效性的概念、影响因素及案例进行了全面论述,至今仍然是该问题领域研究的重要参考文献。参见奥兰·R·扬：《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》,载[美]詹姆斯N·罗西瑙主编,张胜军等译：《没有政府的治理》,南昌：江西人民出版社,2001年版。需要指出的是,经典著作和最新成果有时难于区分,从方便的角度,本文以西方学者著作出版时间为界,2000年之前出版的纳入经典,之后的归为最新成果。这样的划分参考对于西方国际制度理论的研究现状也是有参考意义的。
66[美]罗伯特·O.基欧汉著,罗伯特·o.基欧汉、门洪华编：《局部全球化世界中的自由主义、权力与治理》,门洪华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2004年版；[美]莉萨·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯编：《国际制度》,黄仁伟等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版；[美]弗雷德里克·克拉托赫维尔、爱德华·曼斯菲尔德主编：《国际组织与全球治理读本》(第二版),北京：北京大学出版社,2007年版；[美]约翰·伊肯伯里著：《大战胜利之后：制度、战略约束与战后秩序重建》,门洪华译,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年版；[美]迈克尔·巴尼特、玛莎·芬尼莫尔著：《为世界定规则：全球政治中的国际组织》,薄燕译,上海：上海人民出版社,2009年版。
67苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版；门洪华：《和平的纬度：联合国集体安全机制研究》,上海：上海人民出版社,2002年版；潘忠岐：《世界秩序：结构、机制与模式》,上海：上海人民出版社,2004年版：门洪华：《霸权之翼：美国国际制度战略》,北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版：门洪华：《构建中国大战略的框架：国家实力、战略观念与国际制度》,北京：北京大学出版社,2005年版：田野：《国际关系中的制度选择：一种交易成本的视角》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版；刘青建：《发展中国家与国际制度》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010年版。
68王杰主编：《国际机制论》,北京：新华出版社,2002年版：王逸舟主编：《磨合中的建构：中国与国际组织关系的多视角透视》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003年版。
69苏长和：“中国的国际制度理论研究”,载王逸舟主编：《中国国际关系研究(1995-2005)》,北京：北京大学出版社,2006年版,第115-116页。
70秦亚青：“国际制度与国际合作——反思新自由制度主义”,载《外交学院学报》1998年第1期,第44页。
71参见秦亚青：《霸权体系与国际冲突——美国在国际武装冲突中的支持行为(1945—1988)》,上海：上海人民出版社,1999年版,第82-84页。
72苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版,第96-136页。在论述国际制度与国际社会中的治理时,作者认为：国际制度由于其自身所独具的功能价值,为全球治理提供了基本的原则与规范,还构成了国家行动的外部环境力量。具体参见该书第297页至第305页。
73门洪华：《和平的纬度：联合国集体安全机制研究》,第95-160页；门洪华：“国际机制的有效性与局限性”,载《美国研究》2001年第4期,第7-20页。
74广义上的制度效果(the effects of regime)可以分为制度的分配效果(the distributive effects),认知效果(the cognitive effects),进程效果(the process effects)及侧面效果(the side effects)。具体介绍参见Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International. Environmental Regimes", p.113-114.
75 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,2008, p.88.
76 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.88.
"Thomas Bernauer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We Might Learn More", pp.351-377.
78 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.88.
79 Oran R.Young, International Governance:Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society,pp.140-162.
80 A rild Underdal,"Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", p.14.
81 Olav Schram S tokke, "The Interplay of International Regimes:Putting Effectiveness Theory to Work", FNI Report 14, Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Oslo,2001, pp.5-23转引自孔凡伟：《制度互动研究：国际制度研究的新领域》,载《国际观察》2009年第3期,第46页。
82 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.10-16.
83 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", pp 228-229.
84 Thomas Bern auer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We might Learn More", p.355.
85 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.79.
86 A rild Underdal,"Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", p.33.
87有关有效性的标准问题可参见Oran R. Young, International Cooperation:Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment, Ithaca, New York:Cornell University Press,1989.
88 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'",pp.230-234.
89 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", p.234.
90 A rild Underdal,"Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", pp.35-37.
91 Ed ward L. Miles, "Regime Effectiveness in Three Cases", Prepared for the "Regime Summit" Dartmouth College, Novermber1991.转引自Arild Underdal, "The Concept of Regime 'Effectiveness'", p.235.
92 L iliana Botcheva and Lisa L. Martin, "Institutional Effects on State Behavior:Convergence and Divergence", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.45, No.1, Summer2001, pp.1-26.
93有关奥斯陆——波茨坦方案的总体介绍参见Detlef F.Sprinz and Carsten Helm, "The Effect of Global Environmental Regimes:A Measurement Concept",International Political Science Review,Vol.20, No.5,1999,pp.359-369;Carsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz," Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", Journal of Conflict Resolution,Vol.45, No.5,2000,pp.630-632有关奥斯陆——波茨坦方案的最新发展参见Detlef F. Sprinz, Jon Hovi and Arild Underdal, "Separating and Aggregating Regime Effects", Paper Presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Le Centre Sheraton, Montreal, Quebec,17-20 March,2004,. http://www.uni-potsdam.de/u/sprinz/doc/Separating_Aggregating.ISA_2004.pdf; Detlef F. Sprinz, "Regime Effectiveness-The Next Wave of Research", Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28,2007, http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p181165_index.html.
94贾烈英：“国际制度的有效性——以联合国为例”,载《国际政治科学》2006年第1期,第86-116页：贾烈英：《无政府性与国际制度有效性的实证研究》,外交学院2005年博士学位论文,未出版。
95韩召颖、张蒂：“联合国安理会制度有效性的考察”,载《南开学报(哲学社会科学版)》2008年第5期,第22-31页。
96薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”,载《外交评论》2006年第6期,第57页。
97薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”,第57页。此外,作者还论述了全球环境治理的有效性与国际环境正义之间的关系,具体参见薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性与国际环境正义——中国的视角”,载《绿叶》2008年第4期,第65-69页。
98王传兴：“制度效果：国际制度理论研究的新领域”,载《世界经济与政治》2000年第4 期,第17页。
99田野：《国际关系中的制度选择：一种交易成本的视角》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版。
100刘庆荣：“以交易费用为视角考察国际机制的有效性”,载《学术探索》2004年第7期,第80-84页。
101[美]奥兰·R·扬：《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》,第199-214页。
102 A rild Underdal, "Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", pp.39-41.
103 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" pp.93-105.
104 An dreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, Volker Rittberger, "Does Regime Robustness Require a Fair Distribution of the Gains from Cooperation?" pp.199-204.
105 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What t Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.102.
106 Ron aid B.Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?" p.103.
107 Ruth W.Grant and Robert O. Keohane,"Accountability and Abuses of Power in World Politics" American Political Science Review,Vol.99, No.1, February 2005, pp.29-43.
108薄燕：“国际环境保护机制效用分析”,载徐以骅主编：《世纪之交的国际关系》,上海：上海远东出版社,2002年版,第93-115页。
109张海滨：《环境与国际关系：全球环境问题的理性思考》,上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版,第231-232页。
110齐皓：“国际环境机制的差异性原因”,载《国际政治科学》2009年第2期,第88-102页。
111叶江、谈谭：“试论国际制度的合法性及其缺陷——以国际安全制度与人权制度为例”载《世界经济与政治》2005年第12期,第42-49页。
112王铁军：“世界政治的法律化：国际制度主义理论的新探索”,载《世界经济与政治》2006年第11期,第41页。
113成帅华：“国际制度中的透明度”,载《太平洋学报》1999年第4期,第59-65页。
114[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,第109-119页。
115 Ron ald B.Mitchell, "The Influence of International Institutions:Institutional Design, Compliance, Effectiveness, and Endogeneity", p.71.
116参见[美]W·理查德·斯科特著：《制度与组织——思想观念与物质利益》(第3版),姚伟、王黎芳译,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010年版。
117 T homas Gehring and Sebastian Oberthur, "The Causal Mechanisms of Interaction Between International Institutions",pp.125-156.
118 Oran R.Young, Governance in World Affairs, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press, 1999, p.123.
119 Ron aid B.Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance; Ronald Mitchell, "Regime Design Matters:Intentional Oil Pollution and Treaty Compliance", International Organization, Vol.48, No.2,1994, pp.425-458.
120 Dai, Xinyuan, International Institutions and National Policies, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007; Edward A. Parson ed., Protecting the Ozone Layer; Science and Strategy, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2003; Rolf Lidskog and Goran Sundqvist, "The Role of Science in Environmental Regimes:the Case of LRTAP", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.8, No.1,2002, pp.77-101.
121 Olav Schram S tokke and Geir H(?)nneland eds., International Cooperation and Arctic Governance:Regime Effectiveness and Northern Region Building, London:Routledge,2008; Gail Osherenko and Oran R. Young, The Age of the Arctic:Hot Conflicts and Cold Realities, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1989.
122有关全球性淡水资源保护的论述,参见Ken Conca, Governing Water.Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2006; Thomas Bernauer, "Managing International Rivers", in Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance: Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1997有关欧洲水环境问题的论述,参见Thomas Bernauer and Patrick M. Kuhn, "Is There an Environmental Version of the Kantian Peace? Insights from Water Pollution in Europe", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.16, No.1,2010, pp.77-102; Ines Dombrowsky, "Institutional Design and Regime Effectiveness in Transboundary River Management:the Elbe Water Quality Regime", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.12, No.1,2008, pp.222-238.
123 Rog er K. Smith, "Explaining the Nonproliferation Regime:Anomalies for Contemporary International Relations Theory", International Organization, Vol.41, No.2, Spring1987, pp. 253-281; Ronald B. Mitchell, "International Control of Nuclear Proliferation:Beyond Carrots and Sticks", The Nonproliferation Review, Vol.5, No.1, Fall1997, pp.40-52.
124门洪华：《和平的纬度：联合国集体安全机制研究》；贾烈英：《无政府性与国际制度有效性的实证研究》。
125胡九龙：“论大国关系影响国际核不扩散机制效果的两面性”,载《国际论坛》2009年第2期,第2-7页。
126薄燕：“全球环境治理的有效性”；张海滨：《环境与国际关系：全球环境问题的理性思考》。
127[美]W·理查德·斯科特著：《制度与组织——思想观念与物质利益》(第3版),第52页。新制度主义经济学的著作众多,其中代表性的有[美]道格拉斯·诺思：《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》,杭行译,上海：上海三联书店,1994年版；[美]埃里克·弗鲁博顿、[德]鲁道夫·芮切特著：《新制度经济学：一个交易费用分析范式》,姜建强、罗长远译,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版。有关新制度主义政治学概述的著作参见何俊志、任军锋等编译：《新制度主义政治学译文精选》,天津：天津人民出版社,2007年版。历史学新制度主义的介绍参见何俊志：《结构、历史与行为：历史制度主义对政治科学的重构》,上海：复旦大学出版社,2004年版。社会学新制度主义的著作参见张永宏主编：《组织社会学的新制度主义学派》,上海：上海人民出版社,2007年版；[美]沃尔特·W.鲍威尔、保罗·J.迪马吉奥主编：《组织分析的新制度主义》,姚伟译,上海：上海人民出版社,2008年版。
128 X inyuan Dai,"Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.8, No.3, August2008, p.154.
1 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2008, p.1.
2[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,秦亚青译,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版,第107页。
3[美]R.卡尔纳普著：《科学哲学导论》,张华夏等译,广州：中山大学出版社,1987年版,第181页。
4周晓亮：《<人性论>导读》,成都：四川教育出版社,2002年版,第21页。
5张志林：《因果观念与休谟问题》,长沙：湖南教育出版社,1998年版,第38页。
Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1994, p.76.
7Jo hn L. Mackie,"Causes and Conditions", American Philosophical Quarterly, Vol.2, No.4, 1965, p.246.
8 Eller y Eells, Probabilistic Causality, Cambridge:Cambridge University,1991,p.267转引自张志林：《因果观念与休谟问题》,第52页。
6[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著：《政治学研究方法指南》,陈琪译,北京：北京大学出版社,2006年版,第8页,注3。在因果理论中,还涉及变量,包括自变量、因变量和中间变量。其中自变量是作为因果理论或假设中的原因的想象；因变量是因果理论或假设中作为结果的想象；中间变量是因果理论解释中作为中间现象的变量,由自变量引起并引发因变量。当然,一个具体的变量究竟是何种变量,取决于研究内容,并随研究内容的变化而变化。例如,在A导致B的陈述中,A是自变量；在Q导致A的陈述中,A变成因变量；在Q导致A而A又导致B的陈述中,A则变成中间变量。具体参见[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著：《政治学研究 方法指南》,第10页,
10[美]爱德文·阿瑟·伯特著：《近代物理科学的形而上学基础》,徐向东译,北京：北京大学出版社,2003年版,第87页。
11[英]休谟著：《人性论》,关文运译,北京：商务印书馆,2009年版,第195页。休谟的哲学代表作是三卷本的《人性论》和其他两本与《人性论》密切相关的专著：《人类理解研究》与《道德原理研究》。因果关系的论述集中于《人性论》第一卷的第三章,占据了该卷40%的内容。
12 Jo hn Stuart Mill, A System of logic, Toronto:University of Toronto Press,1973转引自邓生庆：《归纳逻辑——从古典向现代类型的演进》,成都：四川大学出版社,1991年版,第78页。
13金岳霖：《知识论》,北京：商务出版社,1983年版,第638页。
14周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,1996年版,第170页。在社会科学中,因果推论与描述性推论(descriptive inference)相对应,由于因果推论比较困难,在很多情况下,描述推论是研究的最终目标。参见Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.75.
15李少军：“国际关系研究中的途径与范式”,载《欧洲研究》2008年第1期,第114页。
16[美]加勒特·汤姆森著：《康德》,赵成文、藤晓冰、孟令朋译,北京：中华书局,2004年版,第37页。
17[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,第98页。
18[英]休谟著：《人性论》,关文运译,北京：商务印书馆,2003年版,第70-71页。
19李少军：“国际关系研究中的途径与范式”,第115页。
20张志伟：《西方哲学十五讲》,北京：北京大学出版社,2004年版,第262页。
21参见全增嘏主编：《西方哲学》(上册),上海：上海人民出版社,1983年版。
22俞吾金：“康德两种因果性概念探析”,载《中国社会科学》2007年第6期,第30-31页。
23[德]康德：《纯粹理性批判》,邓晓芒译,北京：人民出版社,2004年版,第184-185页。
24[德]马克思：《资本论》第3卷,北京：人民出版社,1975年版,第926-927页。
25彼得·温奇指出,我们从总体上考察穆勒(即密尔)关于科学研究的观念,该观念之基础乃是休谟关于因果关系之本性的观点。参见[英]彼得·温奇著：《社会科学的观念及其与哲学的关系》(第二版),张庆熊、张缨等译,上海：上海人民出版社,2004年版,第69页。
26分别参见[德]黑格尔：《历史哲学》,王造时译,北京：三联书店,1956年版；[德]叔本华：《作为意志和表象的世界》,石冲白译,北京：商务印书馆,1982年版。
27[美] H.L.A.哈特、托尼·奥诺尔著：《法律中的因果关系》,张绍谦、孙战国译,北京：中国政法大学出版社,2006年版。国内学者对其的介评,参见谌洪果：《哈特的法律实证主义：一种思想关系的视角》,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年版。
28罗中枢：《人类的探究——休谟哲学评述》,成都：四川大学出版社,1995年版,第201-202页。
29需要指出的是,休谟将知识分为必然知识与或然知识两类计7种,其中,同一关系、空间和时间的关系以及因果关系由于其不具有精确性而被归于或然知识。此外,从能否推理的角度,休谟认为只有因果关系是推理。参见[英]休谟著：《人性论》,第60页。
30周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,第155页。
31周晓亮：《<人性论>导读》,第31-32页。
32 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis,p.40.
33张志伟：《西方哲学十五讲》,第260-261页。
34Jo hn Stuart Mill, A System of Logic:Ratiocinative and Inductive, London:Longman,1970.密尔的这部著作很早就被严复翻泽成中文,不过“由于老来精神茶短,惮用脑力”的缘故,其中归纳法的内容只译了一部分。严复的翻译晦涩,他把五个探寻因果关系的方法分别称为：统同术、别异术、同异合术、归余术以及消息术。参见[英]约翰·穆勒著：《穆勒名学》,严复译,北京：商务印书馆1981年版,第335-344页。
35从本质上说,休谟的怀疑主义是经验论发展的逻辑结果,是经验论原则中怀疑主义因素最充分的理论表现。参见周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,第202页。
36休谟指出,“全部知识都归结为或然推断,而且最后变成和我们日常生活中所用的那种证 据一样。”参见[英]休谟著：《人性论》,第207页。
37[德]恩格斯：《自然辨证法》,于光远等译,北京：人民出版社，1984年版,第96
38 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis,p.91.
39 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.99.
40 David Dessler, "Beyond Correlations:A Causal Theory of War", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.35, No.3,1991, p.343.
38苏长和：“理性主义、建构主义与世界政治研究——兼论<世界政治理论中的探索与争鸣>”,载《国际政治研究》2006年第2期,第51-55页。
42[美]肯尼思·华尔兹著：《国际政治理论》,信强译,上海：上海人民出版社,2003年版,第86页。
43[美]肯尼思·华尔兹著：《国际政治理论》,第67页。
44 Jeffrey W. Legro and Andrew Moravcsik,"Is Anybody Still a Realist?"International Security, Vol.24,No.2, Fall 1999, pp.41-42.
44秦亚青认为新古典现实主义属于最小现实主义的范畴,而进攻性现实主义则属于最大现实主义。具体参见秦亚青：“现实主义理论的发展及其批判”,载《国际政治科学》2005年第2期,第161-166页。
46秦亚青：“现实主义理论的发展及其批判”,第165页。进一步说,个体层面的最小现实主义代表人物斯蒂芬·沃尔特(Stephen M.Walt)提出的威胁均衡理论,分析重心就转向决策者的心理因素对国家安全的影响。参见Stephen M.Walt, Origins of Alliances, New York: Cornell University Press,1987.
47刘丰：“新古典现实主义的发展及前景——评《没有应答的威胁：均势的政治制约》”,载《国际政治科学》2007年第3期,第165页。
48韩爱勇：“因果关系与国际关系理论研究”,载《国际关系学院学报》2010年第6期,第4页。
49 Michael Nic holson, Causes and Consequences in International Relations:A Conceptual Analysis, London:Cassell Academic,1996; Michael Nicholson, "The Continued Significance of Positivism? " in Steve Smith, Ken Booth and Marysia Zalewski eds., International Theory: Positivism and Beyond, New York:Cambridge University Press,1996.
50 Michael Nic holson, "The Continued Significance of Positivism?" p.137.
51 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis, p.100.
52一般认为因果效应和因果机制是因果推论的两种方式。不过加里·金等更看重因果效应的作用,认为因果机制只是理解因果效应的一种方式,即使没有因果机制,因果关系就足以发挥作用；但如果没有因果效应,就无法认识因果机制。参见Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Werba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.75-76在他们看来,因果机制只是方法上的技巧,是理解因果关系的操作性过程。相关论述可参见曲博：“因果机制与过程追踪法”,载《世界经济与政治》2010年第4期,第100页。
53 Gary King, Robert O. Keohane and Sydney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.99-114.
54 Milja Kurki, Causation in International Relations:Reclaiming Causal Analysis, pp.104-105.
55[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,第96页。
56[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,第207页。
57 Alexa nder Went, "On Constitution and Causation in International Relations", Review of International Studies,Vol.24,1998, pp.101-117.
58定性研究与案例研究存在着一定的差异,仅从国际制度有效性研究这一主题看,将定性研究与案例分析等同,并不影响对该主题的研究。
59李少军著：《国际政治学概论》(第三版),上海：上海人民出版社,2009年版,第24页。
60 Aren d Lijphart, "Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method", The American Political Science Review, Vol.65, No.3. September1971, p.691.
61[美]罗伯特·K·殷著：《案例研究：设计与方法》(中文第2版),周海涛、李永贤、李虔译,重庆：重庆大学出版社,2010年版,第3页。
62[美]W.菲利普斯·夏夫利著：《政治科学研究方法》(第六版),新知译,上海：上海人民 出版社,2006年版,第50页。
63孙小礼主编：《社会科学中的十大关系》,上海：学林出版社,2004年版,第114页。转引自李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第128页。
64相关介绍见李少军著：《国际政治学概论》(第三版),第25-26页；李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,第127-170页。
5 Mart yn Hammersley ed., Social Research:Philosophy, Politics and Practice, London:Sage Publications,1992, pp.9-13.
00 Peter John, "Quantitative Methods", in David Marsh and Gerry Stoker eds., Theory and Methods in Political Science, Basingstoke:Palgrave,2002, pp.216-217该书中本版参见[英]大卫·马什、格里·斯托克主编：《政治科学的理论与方法》(第2版),景跃进、张小劲、欧阳景根译,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006年版。
7 Melv yn Read and David Marsh, "Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods", in David Marsh and Gerry Stoker eds., Theory and Methods in Political Science, Basingstoke:Palgrave, 2002, p.234.
68 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.3-32.
69少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第124页。
70德育编著：《政治学定量分析入门》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007年版,第18页。
71[美]罗伯特D·帕特南：《使民主运转起来》,王列、赖海榕译,南昌：江西人民出版社,2001年版。
72 David A. Collier, "The Comparative Method", in Ada W. Finifter ed., Political Science:The State of the Discipline II, Washington, DC:American Political Science Association,1993, p.116, http://polisci.berkeley.edu/people/faculty/CollierD/APSA-TheComparativeMethod.pdf.
73 Mark A. Boyer, "Old Whine in New Bottles?"Journal of International Relations and Development,Vol.6, No.4,2003, pp.395-396.
74秦亚青：“国际关系研究中科学与人文的契合”,载《中国社会科学》2004年第1期,第79-80页。
75 Michael Nic holson,"The Continued Significane of Positivism", pp.128-145.
76 Ron ald Rogowski, "The Role of Theory and Anomaly in Social-Scientific Inference", American Political Science Review, Vol.89, No.2,1995, pp.467-470转引自曲博：“因果机制与过程追踪法”,第99页。
77李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,第121页。
78 Daniel Maliniak, Amy Oakes, Susan Peterson, and Michael J. Tierney,"International Relations in the US Academy", International Studies Quarterly, Vol55,2011, p.451.
79 L isa L. Martin, Coercive Cooperation:Explaining Multilateral Economic Sanctions, Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press,1992.
80西方国际关系研究具有重要影响的定量、定性方法包括Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research; Michael Brecher and Frank Harvey eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,2002; Henry Brady and David Collier eds., Rethinking Social Inquiry:Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, Lanham:Rowman& Littlefield Publishers, INC.,2004; Alexander George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science, Cambridge:MIT Press,2005.
81 Ron ald B. Mitchell and Thomas Bernauer, "Empirical Research on International Environmental Policy:Designing Qualitative Case Studies", Journal of Environment and Development, Vol.7, No.1, March 1998, pp.4-7.
82曲博：“因果机制与过程追踪法”,第98-99页。
83 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.9.
84 Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Marc Levy, Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge:The MIT Press,1993.
85 Arild U nderdal and Kenneth Hanf, International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:The Case of Acid Rain, Ashgate:Aldershot,2000.
86 Arild U nderdal, "Conclusions:Patterns of Regime Effectiveness", In Edward L.Miles, Arild Underdal, Steinar Andresen, Jorgen Wettestad, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and Elaine M. Carlin eds., Environmental Regime Effectiveness:Confronting Theory with Evidence, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2001,p.4.
87Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.10.
88 Ro nald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.2, No.4, November 2002, pp.58-59.
89 Ron ald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.68.
90 S teinar Andresen and Jorgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, p.55.
91 Helmut Breitmeie r, Marc A. Levy, Oran R. Young, and Michael Zurn, "International Regimes Database (IRD):Data Protocol", HASA WP-96-154, December 1996.
92 Oran R. Young and Michael Ziirn, "The International Regimes Database:Designing and Using a Sophisticated Tool for Institutional Analysis", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.6, No.3, August 2006, pp.122-123.
93参见Helmut Breitmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database.
94该数据库的网址为:http://iea.uoregon.edu/page.php?query=home-contents.php。
95 Ron ald B.Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.58.
96 Edith Br own Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1998.
97Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.99-121.
98 Ron ald B.Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.66.
99 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes,"in Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, pp.4-6.
100 S teinar Andresen and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", pp.60-61.
101 Oran R. Young, "The Consequences of International Regimes:A Framework for Analysis," p.15.
102谢宇：《社会学方法与定量研究》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006年版,第44页。
103 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, Cambridge: MIT Press,1998, p.27.
104 James D. Fearon,"Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science," World Politic Vol.43, No.2,1991, p.171.
105 Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics:Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1996理查德·内德·勒博(Richard Ned Lebow)也是一位反事实分析的积极支持者和倡议者,并将反事实分析运用于世界性战争以及冷战的分析之中。其最新主张参见Richard Ned Lebow, Forbidden Fruit:Counterfactuals and International Relations, Princeton and Oxford:Princeton University Press,2010,pp.29-68.
106[美]小约瑟夫·奈著：《理解国际冲突：历史与理论》,张小明译,上海：上海人民出版社,2002年版,第77页。
107 Jo n Elster, Explaining Technical Change:A Case Study in the Philosophy of Science, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1983, pp.34-36.
108[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著：《政治学研究方法指南》,第46页。
109参见[美]小约瑟夫·奈著：《理解国际冲突：历史与理论》,第78-81页。
110吉宓：“政治学研究中理论与方法的相互界定”,载《国际政治研究》2007年第1期,第 123-124页。
111 Helmut Breitmeie r, Arild Underdal, Oran R. Young, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Comparing and Contrasting Findings from Quantitative Research", International Studies Review, Vol.13,2011, p.39.
112 S teinar Andresen and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", p.64.
113 Jo hn W. Creswell, Research Design:Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, London:Sage Publications,1994, p.177.
114 Deb orah Padgett, Qualitative Methods in Social Work Research:Challenges and Rewards, London:Sage Publications,1998, pp.128-129.
115 S teinar Andresen and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Case Studies of the Effectiveness of International Enyironmental Regimes:Balancing Textbook Ideals and Feasibility Concerns", pp.50-52.
116 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Evaluating the Performance of Environmental Institutions:What to Evaluate and How to Evaluate It?"pp.113-114.
1[美]罗伯特·古丁、汉斯-迪特尔·克林格曼主编：《政治科学新手册》,钟开斌等译,北京：三联书店,2006年版,第656页。
2[美]罗伯特·古丁、汉斯-迪特尔·克林格曼主编：《政治科学新手册》,第656页。
3 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, pp.81-82.
4 S tephen L.Morgan and Christopher Winship, Counterfactuals and Causal Inference:Methods and Pinciples for Social Research, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007,p.3
5 An drew Gelman and Gary King,"Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias", American Journal of Political Science, Vol.34, No.4,1990, pp.1142-1164.
6随机变量可以分为“离散型随机变量”(discrete random variable)和“连续型随机变量’(continuous random variable)。当一个随机变量可能发生的数值是可数的而且有限时,称为离散型随机变量；如果一个随机变量可能发生的数值是没有间隔,而且有无限可能发生的数值,这就是连续型随机变量。需要指出的是,随机变量表明结果的不确定性,但是这种不确定性并非表示随机变量是杂乱无章的。参见王德育编著：《政治学定量分析入门》,第98页。
7King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.80.
8章奇：“社会科学中的因果关系及其分析方法”,载《浙江社会科学》2008年第3期,第6页。
9曲博：“译者序：国内政治与国际关系——理论建构与理论检验”,载[美]海伦·米尔纳著：《利益、制度与信息：国内政治与国际关系》,曲博译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版,第ⅵ页。
10 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,pp.91-95.
11Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,pp.93-94.
12 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research,p.94.
13曲博：“译者序：国内政治与国际关系——理论建构与理论检验”,第ⅵ页。
14章奇：“社会科学中的因果关系及其分析方法”,第7页。
15 Jo n Elster, Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1989, pp.3-10.
16赵广成：‘‘国际关系的退化机制分析：一项研究议程”,载《世界经济与政治》2011年第1期,第112-113页。
17 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg, "Social Mechanisms:An Introductory Essay", in Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1998, pp.5-6; Robert Merton, On theoretical sociology:Five Essays, Old and New, New York:Free Press,1967.
18转引自张志林：“科学解释与理解类型”,载《科学技术与辩证法》2003年第3期,第30页。
19张志林：“科学解释与理解类型”,第31页。
20王天夫：“社会研究中的因果分析”,载《社会学研究》,2006年第4期,第151页。
21 Daniel Litt le, Varieties of Social Explanation:An Introduction to the Philosophy of Social Science, Boulder, CO:Westview Press,1991, p.15.
22 Daniel Little, "Causal Explanation in the Social Sciences", The Southern Journal of Philosophy Vol.34,1995, p.35.
23 Arthur L. Stinchcombe, "The Conditions of Fruitfulness of Theorizing about Mechanisms Social Science", Philosophy of the Social Sciences,Vol.21,1991, pp.367-388.转引自Jon Hovi, "Causal Mechanisms and the Study of International Environmental Regimes", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer,2004, p.72.
24 Peter Hedstrom and Petri Ylikoski,"Causal Mechanisms in the Social Sciences", Annual Review of Sociology, Vol.36,2010, p.56.
25 Jo n Elster, "A Plea for Mechanisms", in Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1998, p.45.
26 Jo n Elster, Explaining Technical Change:A Case Study in the Philosophy of Science, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1983, p.24.
27Mario Bu nge,"Mechanism and Explanation", Philosophy of the Social Sciences, Vol.27,1997 p.414. Mario Bu nge,"Mechanism and Explanation,"p.415.
29 W illiam Bechtel and Robert C. Richardson, Discovering Complexity:Decomposition and Localization as Scientific Research Strategies, Princeton, NJ.:Princeton University Press, 1993,p.17.
30[美]托马斯·谢林著：《承诺的策略》,王永钦、薛峰译,上海：上海人民出版社,2009年版,第226页。
31 Olav Schram S tokke,"Boolean Analysis, Mechanisms, and the Study of Regime Effectiveness", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic,2004, p.89.
32 Peter Machamer, Lindley Darden and Carl F. Craver, "Thinking about Mechanisms,' Philosophy of Science, Vol.67, No.1,2000, pp.1-25
33 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1998该书作者包括了托马斯·谢林等一批著名学者,在社会学领域影响广泛,成为分析社会学的开创之作。
34 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.24-25.
35 Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.21-23.
36参见Peter Hedstrom, Dissecting the Social:On the Principles of Analytical Sociology,2005.
37陈云松：“分析社会学：寻求连接微观与宏观的机制性解释”,载《浙江社会科学》2008年第5期,第25页。
38以亨普尔为代表的实证主义者提出了自然科学领域中的覆盖律模型,意为一个事件通过从一般规律和某些初始条件中演绎出而被说明。说明就是把事件纳入一般规律,或者说用一般规律来“覆盖”它。参见[美]亨普尔著：《自然科学的哲学》,陈维杭译,上海：上海科学技术出版社,1986年版。在彼得·赫德斯特罗姆看来,这种解释是一种“暗箱”解释(black-box explanation),它恰恰把得以生成这种过程的社会实体——人际互动,排除在解释之外,参见Peter Hedstrom, Dissecting the Social:On the Principles of Analytical Sociology, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2005.
39语用-文化型解释模式表现在三个方面：科学解释是满足人们特定愿望的一种科学应用；科学解释的真理性依赖于语用学维度上以言取效行为的真正实现：科学解释是把一个“未明事件”融于主体的视域、是作为主体的解释者和求解者的视界融合。参见刘高岑、郭贵春：“科学解释的语境——意向模型”,载《科学学研究》2006年第4期,第497-502页。
40 Mario Bu nge,"Mechanism and Explanation", p.441.
41 Peter Hedstrom and Peter Bearman,"What is Analytical Sociology All About? An Introductory Essay", in Peter Hedstrom and Peter Bearman eds., The Oxford Handbook of Analytical Sociology, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2009, p.4.
42 Jo n Hovi,"Causal Mechanisms and the Study of International Environmental Regimes",p.77.
43 Olav Schram S tokke and and Davor Vidas eds., Governing the Antarctic:The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
44周雪光：《组织社会学十讲》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003年版,第16页。
45 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.86.
46 Alexa nder George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science, Cambridge:MIT Press,2005, p.21.
47 Alexa nder George and Andrew Bennett,Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Science, p.206.
48陈云松：“分析社会学：寻求连接微观与宏观的机制性解释”，第25页。
49 Jo hn Gerring, "Causal Mechanisms:Yes, But...",2009, pp.1-32, http://sws.bu.edu/jgerring/documents/CausalMechanisms_Extended.pdf.
50 Peter Hedstrom and Petri Ylikoski,"Causal Mechanisms in the Social Sciences", p.54.
51 Jeffrey Checkel, "International Institutions and Socialization in Europe:Introduction and Framework", International Organization, Vol.59, No.4,2005, p.805.建构主义理论中的社会化是指引导新的行为体进入一个给定共同体行为的规范、规则和方式,其中共同体规则、规范是给定的,终点是国际化。建构主义对社会化机制进行了深入研究,比如亚历山大·温特提出了社会化的三种机制：强制(coercion)、算计(calculation)与信仰(belief);杰弗瑞·切克尔提出了战略算计(strategic calculation)、角色博弈(role playing)以及规范劝说(normative persuasion);江忆恩(Alastair Iain Johnston)也给出了社会化的三种机制：模仿(mimicking)、社会影响(social influence)和劝说(persuasion)。分别参见[美]亚历山大·温特著：《国际政治的社会理论》,2000年版；Jeffry Checkel, "International Institutions and Socialization in Europe:Introduction and Framework", p.805; Alastair Iain Johnston, Social States, Princeton: Princeton University Press,2008,pp.23-26.
52 Jeffrey Checkel, "It's the Process Stupid! Tracing Causal Mechanisms in European and International Politics", in Audie Klotz ed., Qualitative Methods in International Relations, NY: Palgrave Macmillian,2007.
" Olav Schram S tokke, "Boolean Analysis, Mechanisms, and the Study of Regime Effectiveness", p.91.
54 Jo n Hovi,"Causal Mechanisms and the Study of International Environmental Regimes",p.74.
55 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", in Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1999,p.21.
56 Olav Schram S tokke and Davor Vidas eds., Governing the Antarctic:The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System.
57 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.8.
58 Jo n Elster,Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences, pp.4-10.p.3.亨利·布雷迪是加州大学伯克利分校政治学教授,2009年开始任美国政治学学会主席,
59 Henry Brady, "Models of Causal Inference:Going beyond the Neyman-Rubin-Holland Theory",被誉为政治科学领域的大科学家。
60张桂琳：“多重因果路径分析述评”,载《政治学研究》2008年第5期,第92页。
61张桂琳：“多重因果路径分析述评”,第92页。
Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.97.
63 David Collier, Jason Seawright,and Gerardo L. Munck, "The Quest for Standards:King, Keohane, and Verba's Designing Social Inquiry", in Henry E. Brady and David Collier eds., Rethinking Social Inquiry:Diverse Tools, Shared Standards, Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, INC.,2004, p.27.
64 Paul W. Holland,"Statistics and Causal Inference", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.81,1986, pp.948-949.
65 Henry Brady."Models of Causal Inference:Going beyond the Neyman-Rubin-Holland Theory", pp.36-50;
66 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.103.
67Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.105.
68[美]詹姆斯·G.马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“国际政治秩序的制度动力”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第367页。
69[美]詹姆斯·G.马奇、约翰·奥尔森：“国际政治秩序的制度动力”,第369页。
70 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.108.
71[美]查理斯·C·拉金、德克·伯格-施洛瑟、吉塞勒·德穆尔著：“政治科学方法论：定性研究法”,载[美]罗伯特·古丁、汉斯-迪特尔·克林格曼主编：’《政治科学新手册》,钟开斌等译,北京：三联书店,2006年版,第1085页。“恒常会合”与“习惯原理”共同构成 了休谟因果推论的经验说明。周晓亮认为,通过考察因果推论,休谟确实发现了有助于说明因果关系的东西,那就是因果推理过程中的两个必不可少的条件：一是两类现象的恒常会合,二是由于习惯的作用,心灵由一种知觉(原因)到另一种知觉(结果)的转移。休谟正是将两者当作了因果关系定义的基础。参见周晓亮著：《休谟及其人性哲学》,第170页。
72 Gary King, Robert Keohane and Sidney Verba,Designing Social Inquiry:Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, p.79.
73需要指出的是,拉金的‘‘定性”一词专指一种研究方法上的兴趣,通过多案例系统比较法来寻找某些特性或是特性的某些特殊结构的存在或缺失的情况,介于传统的案例法(有无数个变量但只有一个案例)和传统的定量研究法(有许多案例但变量相对较少)之间。具体操作过程参见[美]查理斯·C·拉金、德克·伯格-施洛瑟、吉塞勒·德穆尔著：“政治科学方法论：定性研究法”,第1076-1080页。
74 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.58.
75 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", pp.58-59相应地,特定制度的能力可看作规定活动领域功能的重要性、总的角色或成员的分量以及行为改变的程度。这些都构成了国际制度有效性领域因果重要性的必要条件,这也是总体上因果功效(causal efficacy)的公式。
76 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.698.
77 David G.Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B.Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.698.
78 R obert O. Keohane, Peter M. Haas, and Mark A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", in Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane, and Mark A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, pp.3-24.
79 Evan J.Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", pp.86-102; Ronald B. Mitchell, "The Relative Effects of Environmental Regimes:A Quantitative Comparison of Four Acid Rain Protocols", International Studies Association Conference, Portland, OR, February 2003.
80 Arun Agrawal and Ashwini Chhatre, "Explaining Success on the Commons:Community Forest Governance in the Indian Himalaya", World Development, Vol.34, No.1,2006, pp.149-166.
81 Adam Przeworksi, "Institutions Matter?" Government and Opposition, Vol.39, No.4,2004, p.527.
82 Oran R. Young, "Institutions and Environmental Change:The Scientific of Legacy of a Decade of IDGEC Research", pp.19-20.
83参见Oran R. Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale, Cambridge:MIT Press,2002.
84 Oran R. Young, "Institutions and Environmental Change:The Scientific of Legacy of a Decade of IDGEC Research", p.21.
" Helmut Breitmeie r, Arild Underdal, and Oran R. Young, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Comparing and Contrasting Findings from Quantitative Research", International Studies Review, Vol.13,2011, p.12.
86 Ca rsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz,"Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.630-632.
87Ca rsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz,"Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.630-632.
88 Arild U nderdal, "The Concept of Regime'Effectiveness'", p.231.
89 Carsten Helm and Detlef F.Sprinz, "Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.636.
90 I nes Dombrowsky, "Institutional Design and Regime Effectiveness in Trans-boundary River Management:the Elbe Water Quality Regime", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.12, No.1,2008, p.225.
91 Carsten Helm and Detlef F. Sprinz, "Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.637其中,有效性分值敏感度分值
92 Detlef F. Sprinz and Carsten Helm, "The Effect of Global Environmental Regimes:A Measurement Concept", pp.359-369.
93 Detle f F. Sprinz, Jon Hovi and Arild Underdal,"Separating and Aggregating Regime Effects" pp.1-24.
94该种情况下计算公式如下：IEA.B= [(APA,B-HPA,-B-HP-AB)/(COA,B-NR-A-B)]。
95 Detlef F. Sprinz, "Regime Effectiveness-The Next Wave of Research",p.8表格显示,非机制有效性分值机制有效性分值有效性总分值=EA]B+E(?)A,(?)B。
96 Carst en Helm and Detlef F. Sprinz,"Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.636-637.
97 Detlef F. Sprinz, "Regime Effectiveness-The Next Wave of Research", pp.1-18.
98 Volker Rittberger and Michael Zurn, "Regime Theory:Findings from the Study of East-West Regimes", Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.26,No.2,1991, pp.165-183.
99皓：“国际环境机制的差异性原因”,载《国际政治科学》2009年第2期,第94页。
100[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,第115页。
101者与反对者在研究国际环境问题的重要学术刊物《全球环境政治》上进行了热烈的学理争论。参见Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.99-121. Jon Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2003, pp.74-96;Oran R. Young, "Determining Regime Effectiveness:A Commentary on the Oslo-Potsdam Solution", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2003, pp.97-104. Jon Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "Regime Effectiveness and the Oslo-Potsdam Solution:A Rejoinder to Oran Young", Global Environmental Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2003, pp.105-107.
102 Oran R.Young, "Determining Regime Effectiveness:A Commentary on the Oslo-Potsdam Solution", pp.97-104.
103 Jo n Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", p.91.
104 Jo n Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", p.89.
105 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.112.
106 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.112.
107 Jo n Hovi, Detlef F. Sprinz and Arild Underdal, "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness:Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead", p.92.
108 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", p.113.
109齐皓：“国际环境机制的差异性原因”,第93页。
110[美]奥兰·扬：《世界事务中的治理》,第56-58页。针对奥兰·扬的批评,弗兰克·根德(Frank Grundig)对奥斯陆——波茨坦方案进行了三个方面的补充,以期克服制度有效性的“时间域”(the temporal domain)的问题。主要包括：通过衡量有效性的专门时间间隔(awell-specified time interval),而不是一个既定的时间点,捕捉跨时的制度收益；将制度形成前的阶段及未能及时达成协议所造成的损失纳入考察范畴；补充制度政策的时间外部性 (temporal externalities)。具体参见Frank Grundig, "Dealing with the Temporal Domain of Regime Effectiveness:A Further Conceptual Development of the Oslo-Potsdam Solution", International Environmental Agreements:Politics, Law and Economics, Vol.11, No.4, 2011,pp.1-17.
111Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes," p.118.
112 L iliana Botcheve and Lisa L. Martin, "Institutional Effects on State Behavior:Convergenc and Divergence", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.45, No.1, Summer2001, pp.1-26.
113苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,第120页。
114 L isa L. Martin, "Interests, Power and Multilateralism", International Organization, Vol.46, No.4,1992, pp.765-792.
115[美]罗伯特·阿克塞尔罗德、罗伯特·基欧汉：“无政府状态下的战略和制度合作”,载[美]大卫·A.鲍德温主编：《新现实主义和新自由主义》,第110页。
116 Matthew Evangelista, "D omestic Structure and International Change", in Michael W. Doyle and John G. Ikenberry eds., New Thinking in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1997,pp.202-228.
117袁正清：《近年来国外国际组织与制度的研究进展》,载于逸舟主编：《国际政治理论与战略前沿问题》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007年版,第78页
118 S tephen M. Walt, "International Relations:One World, Many Theories", Foreign Policy, Spring 1998, pp.29-46.
119 Ken Conca, Governing Water:Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institutio Building, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,2006.
120利莎·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯：“国际制度的理论与经验研究”,载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第134页。
121 Helmut Breitmeie r, Arild Underdal, and Oran R. Young,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Comparing and Contrasting Findings from Quantitative Research", pp.1-2.
122 Ken Conca, Governing Water:Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, pp.14-16.
123 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2008, p.53.
124[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦、罗伯特·基欧汉、斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳编：《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》,第135页。
125 Olav Schram S tokke,"Boolean Analysis, Mechanisms, and the Study of Regime Effectiveness", p.87.
126 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.53.
127有关观念的论述参见Peter M. Haas, "Introduction:Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination", International Organization, Vol.46, No.1, Winter 1992,pp.187-224有关新规范标准的演化参见Thomas Risse, Stephen C. Ropp and Kathryn Sikkink eds., The Power of Human Rights:International Norms and Domestic Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1999有关“揭牌外交”的论述参见Marc A. Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Marc A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press,1993, pp.75-132.
128 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2006; Social Learning Group, Learning to Manage Global Environmental Risks, Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press,2001.
129Ken Conca, Governing Water:Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, p.23.
130 Karen Litfin, Ozone Discourses, New York:Columbia University Press,1994.
131 Oran R. Young, "Inferences and Indices:Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes",Global Environmental Politics, Vol.1, No.1, February 2001, p.118.
132保罗·凯尔斯泰特(Paul Kellstedt)等人通过潜在变量和显在变量的细分,寻求显在变量上的偏差,为有效性研究提供了启示。参见Paul Kellstedt, Gregory E. McAvoy and James A. Stimson, "Dynamic Analysis with Latent Construct",Political Analysis, Vol.5, No.1, pp.113-150.
133 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.66.
134 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.66.
135 Oran R. Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes",p.21.
136 Ron ald B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1994, p.30.
137Ron ald B. Mitchell,International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.32.
138Oran R.Young, Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge:MIT Press,1997, p.34.
139 Geor ge W. Downs, "Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes", Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.3, June 2000, pp.630-652.
140 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.68.
141 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection.
142 Elizabe th R. DeSombre, Domestic Sources of International Environmental Policy:Industry, Environmentalists, and U.S. Power, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, p.138.
143 Elizabeth R. DeSombre, Domestic Sources of International Environmental Policy:Industry, Environmentalists, and U.S. Power, p.245.在最近的一本新书中,伊丽莎白·德松布尔指出,从政治的角度来说世界是由各个国家组成的。从环境的角度来说世界是由生态系统组成的,分割这两个体系会导致全球环境问题的严峻和紧迫形势。参见Elizabeth R. DeSombr, The Global Environment and World Politics, New York, N.Y.:Continuum International Pub Group, 2007.
144 Olav Schram S tokke and Davor Vidas, Governing the Antarctic:The Effectiveness and Legitimacy of the Antarctic Treaty System, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996, p.18.
145 Oran R.Young, Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience,p.36.全球治理与国际制度分析的区分也显而易见：制度分析的政治议程局限于特定的领域,而全球治理则超越了特定的领域：制度分析强调国家和政府官僚的规范协调,而全球治理则强调超国家和次国家行为体的分析。参见该书第58页。
146 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges," p.70.
147Edward L.Miles, Arild Underdal, Steinar Andresen, Jorgen Wettestad, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and Elaine M. Carlin, Environmental Regime Effectiveness:Confronting Theory with Evidence, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2002.
148 Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, pp.187-224.制度互动对应的词组有两个："institutional interaction"与"institutional interplay"。实际上,二者并无明显差异。
149机制密度”概念由奥兰·扬提出,可参见Oran R. Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale; Oran R. Young, "Institutional Linkages in International Society:Polar Perspectives", Global Governance, Vol.2, No.1,1996, pp.1-24.“条约堵塞”由艾迪·布朗·维丝(Edith Brown Weiss)提出,参见Edith Brown Weiss, "International Environmental Issues and the Emergence of a New World Order", Georgetown Law Journal, Vol.81, No.3,1993, p.679.
150 Konrad von Moltke, "Institutional Interactions:The Structure of Regimes for Trade and the Environment", in Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1997, pp.271-272.
151 Oran R.Young ed.,The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms.
152 Oran R. Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale; Oran R.Young, W. Bradnee Chambers, Joy A. Kim and Claudiaten Have eds., Institutional Interplay:Biosafety and Trade, Tokyo:UN University Press,2008; Olav Schram Stokke, Governing High Seas Fisheries:the Interplay of Global and Regional Regimes.
153 Oran R Young, The Institutional Dimensions of Environmental Change:Fit, Interplay, and Scale, pp.83-138.
154 V inod K. Aggarwal ed., Institutional Designs for a Complex World:Bargaining, Linkages, and Nesting, Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1998, p.4.
155 V inod K. Aggarwal ed., Institutional Designs for a Complex World:Bargaining, Linkages, and Nesting, pp.3-5.
156 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Interplay:Exploring International Interaction", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change: Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, p.187.
157Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.21-22.
158 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Interplay:Exploring International Interaction", p.200.
159 Thomas Ge hringand Sebastian Oberthur, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", in Sebastian Oberthur and Thomas Gehring eds, Institutional Interaction in Global Environmental Governance:Synergy and Conflict among International and EU Policies, pp.6-7.
160 T homas Schelling, "Social Mechanisms and Social Dynamics", in Peter Hedstrom and Richard Swedberg eds., Social Mechanisms:An Analytical Approach to Social Theory, pp.32-44.
161 Arild U nderdal,"One Question, Two Answers", in Ronald B. Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume III, pp.32-33.
162 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.61.
163 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", pp.7-9.也可参见孔凡伟：“制度互动研究：国际制度研究的新领域”,第44-46页；祁怀高：“国际制度变迁与东亚体系和平转型——一种制度主义视角分析”,载《世界经济与政治》2010年第4期,第64-66页。
164 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur,"The Causal Mechanisms of Interaction between International Institutions", p.128.
165 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian Oberthur, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", p.7.
166 Hedley Bull, "International Theory:The Case for a Classical Approach", World Politics, Vol.18, No.3, April 1966, pp.366.
167[美]詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著：《争论中的国际关系理论》(第五版),阎学通、陈寒溪等译,北京：世界知识出版社,2003年版,第53页。
168 Thomas Ge hring and Sebastian OberthUr, "Comparative Empirical Analysis and Ideal Types of Institutional Interaction", p.7.
169 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.53.
170 H eike Schroeder, "Analyzing Biosafety and Trade through the Lens of Institutional Interplay" in Oran R. Young et al., Institutional Interplay:Biosafety and Trade, Tokyo:UN University Press, 2008, pp.53-54.
171 H ugh Ward, "International Linkages and Environmental Sustainability:The Effectiveness of the Regime Network", Journal of Peace Research, Vol.43, No.2,2006, pp.149-166.
1[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,第199-214页。
2 Oran R. Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, pp.273-300.
3内生变量和外生变量广泛运用于经济学中,比如宏观经济学所研究的是对各种变量规定出明确的含义,在经济分析中的变量是一些可以取不同数值的量,包括内生变量和外生变量,以及存量与流量等。内生变量是指经济体系内部因素所决定的变量；外生变量是由经济体系之外的因素所决定的变量。外生变量可以影响内生变量,但它们本身是由不属于经济模型研究范畴的外在因素所决定的变量。参见胡希宁编著：《当代西方经济学概论》,北京：中共中央党校出版社,1998年版,第19页。事实上,经济学中的变量已经在国际政治经济学领域中得以运用,主要在于国际政治经济学研究的问题其变量与经济要素相关。参见Helen Milner, "Reflections on the Field of International Political Economy", in Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2002, pp.623-659.
4 Ja ck Donnelly, Realism and International Relations,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press2000,p.135。杰克·唐纳利(Jack Donnelly)认为干涉变量有重要的作用,它们和独立变量一样具有独立性。也就是说它们在自身的分析领域具有相对的独立性,尽管它们的作用没有独立变量重要。
5实际上,奥兰·扬在论述制度是何时、在何种程度上是有效的这个问题上,也采用了“内生变量”和“外生变量”的概念。参见[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,第214页。
6 Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Mark A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1993, p.21.
'Jo hn J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions",International Security, Vol.19, No.3, Winter 1994/1995, p.7.
8 Rob ert M. A. Crawford, Regime Theory in the Post-Cold War World:Rethinking Neoliberal Approaches to International Relations, Dartmouth:Dartmouth Publishing Company,1996, p.56.
9 Michael N. Barnett and Martha Finnermore, "The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations", International Organization, Vol.53, No.4, p.700.
10 Michael N. Barnett and Martha Finnermore, "The Politics, Power, and Pathologies of International Organizations", p.707.
11王明国：“经济自由主义,经济民族主义与国际机制论”,载《世纪中国》,2003年6月13日,http://www.cc.org.cn/zhoukan/guanchayusikao/0306/0306131008.htm。
12[美]奥兰·R·扬：《国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素》,第208页。
13 Thomas Bern auer, "The Effect of International Environmental Institutions:How We might Learn More", pp.351-377.
14慕建峰：“新秩序,还是老制度——<制度、战略约束和美国战后秩序的持续>评介”,载《美国研究》2002年第1期,第135-143页。
15 An dreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer and Volker Rittberger, Theories of International Regimes, London:Cambridge University Press,1997, p.182.
16 Oran R.Young, Institutional Dynamics:Emergent Patterns in International Environmental Governance, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2010, p.175.
17 Ian Hurd, "Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics", International Organization, Vol. 53,No.2, Spring1999, p.381.
18 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", International Organization,Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.401-402.
19 Judith Goldstein, Miles Kahler, Robert O. Keohane and Anne-Marie Slaughter, "Introductio Legalization and World Politics", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, p.402.
20[美]罗伯特·O.基欧汉、约瑟夫·S.奈：“多边合作的俱乐部模式与世界贸易组织：关于民主合法性问题的探讨”,载《世界经济与政治》2001年第12期,第63页。
21[法]让一马克·柯伊考：“国际组织与国际合法性：制约、问题与可能性”,载《国际社会科学杂志》2003年第2期,第21-22页。
22这些文章都收录在《国际组织》杂志2000年的一期讨论合法化的专辑,对国际制度合法化的原因与结果的分析参见Miles Kahler, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3,Summer2000,pp.661-683个案分析分别参见Beth A. Simmons, "The Legalization of International Monetary Affairs", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.573-602; Judith Goldstein and Lisa L. Martin, "Legalization, Trade Liberalization, and Domestic Politics:A Cautionary Note", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, pp.603-632.
23[美]大卫·A.鲍德温主编：《新现实主义和新自由主义》,第153页。
24 Martha Finne more and Stephen J. Toope, "Alternatives to'Legalization':Richer Views of Law and Politics", International Organization, Vol.55, No.3, Summer2001, pp.743-758.
25 Thomas Risse-Kappen ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-state Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, p.32.
26一些学者已经注意到了非国家行为体与国际制度之间的关系,参见Oran R. Young, "Political Leadership and Regime Formation on Development of Institutions in International Society", International Organization, Vol.45, No.3, Summer1991, pp.281-308; Michael ZUrn, "Bring the Second Images (Back) in:About the Domestic Sources of Regime Formation", in Volker Rittberger ed., Regime Theory and International Relations, New York:Oxford University Press,1993, pp.282-311.
27 Volker Rittberger ed.,Regime Theory and International Relations, p.285.
28 Thomas Risse-Kappen ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-state Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions, pp.6-7.
29 Rob ert O. Keohane and Helen V. Milner eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996, p.7.
30[美]奥兰·R·扬：“国际制度的有效性：棘手案例与关键因素”,第205-207页。
31 Peter J. Katzenstein ed., Between Power and Plenty:Foreign Economic Policies of Advanced Industrial States, Madison:University of Wisconsin Press,1978.
32 Thomas Risse-Kappen ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in Non-state Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions, p.20.
33 Matthew Evangelist, "Domestic Structure and International Change", in Michael W. Doyle and G. John Ikenberry eds., New Thinking in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1997, p.203.
34 Miles Kahle r, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", p.666.
35 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.65.
36 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law",p.141.
37 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.186.
38 Mark Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-board Diplomacy", in Peter M. Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Marc A. Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection,pp.75-132;Don Munton et al., Acid Rain in Europe and North America", in Oran R. Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms; J(?)rgen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, Hants:Edward Elgar,1999.
39 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.99其它持相似观点的学者作品有John C. Murdoch, Todd Sandler and Keith Sargent, "A Tale of Two Collectives:Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe", Economica, Vol.64,1997, pp.281-301.
40 Ron ald B.Mitchell, "The Relative Effects of Environmental Regimes:A Quantitative Comparison of Four Acid Rain Protocols".
41 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements.
42 J ohn C. Murdoch and Todd Sandler, "The Voluntary Provision of a Pure Public Good:The Case of Reduced CFC Emissions and the Montreal Protocol", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.63, No. 3, February 1997, pp.331-349.
43 Tobias Siegfried and Thomas Bernauer, "Estimating the Performance of International Regulatory Regimes:Methodology and Empirical Application to International Water Management in the Naryn/Syr Darya Basin", Water Resources Research, Vol.43,2007.
44 Do n Munton et al., Acid Rain in Europe and North America", in Oran R. Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms.1999.
45 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.76.
46 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", p.74.
47国内学者以国际法为主体研究国际制度的论述,请参见刘志云：“国际法的“合法性”根源、功能以及制度的互动：一种来自国际机制理论视角的诠释”,载《世界经济与政治》2009年第9期,第66-72页：王彦志：“什么是国际法学的贡献——通过跨学科合作打开国际制度的黑箱”,载《世界经济与政治》2010年第11期,第113-128页。以国际法为视角研究国际制度的论述,参见王铁军：“世界政治的法律化：国际制度主义理论的新探索”,载《世界经济与政治》2006年第11期,第40-46页。不过,总体来说,在国际制度领域,这方面的研究仍可加强。
48 Louis Henkin, How Nations Behave:Law and Foreign Policy, New York:Columbia University Press,1979, p.47.
4y Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements.
50遵约引力(the "pull" of compliance)由托马斯·弗兰克提出,参见Thomas M. Franck, The Power of Legitimacy among Nations, New York:Oxford University Press,1990.
51[美]爱迪·布朗·维斯：“理解国际环境协定的遵守：十三个似是而非的观念”，载王曦主《国际环境法与比较环境法评论》(第1卷),北京：法律出版社,2002年版,第107页。
52一个突出的例子是,20世纪90年代曾进行了一项跨国界、跨学科领域的遵约研究。来自11个国家的40位学者,集中研究了8个国家及欧盟对5个条约遵守情况,试图探询影响国家遵守从污染控制到自然资源保护这类国际环境协议的因素。这五个条约具体为：1972年签署的《伦敦议定书》、《世界遗产公约》、《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约》、《国际热带木材协定》及《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》。参见Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1998同时期的其他相关经验研究参见Abram Chayes and Antionia Handler Chayes, The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements; Edith Brown, David G.Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Evidence.
53 Kal Raustiala,"Compliance & Effectiveness in International Regulatory Cooperation", p.388.
54 Edith Br own Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson, "A Framework for Analysis", in Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, p.1, p.4.
55 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law", in Eyal Benvenisti and Moshe Hirsh eds., The Impact of International Law on International Cooperation:Theoretical Perspectives, p.140.
56 Oran Young, Compliance and Public Authority:A Theory with International Application, Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1979, p.172.
57 L isa L. Martin, "Against Compliance", Manuscript,2009, http://users.polisci.wisc.edu/irc/Martin.pdf.
58 Edith Br own Weiss,"Rethinking Compliance with International Law,"p.140.
59薄燕：“中国与国际环境机制：从国际履约角度进行的分析”,载《世界经济与政治》2005年第4期,第23-28页。
60 Ha rold K. Jacobson and Edith Brown Weiss, "Implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity:Lessons from a National Perspective", in Mats Rolen et al. eds., International Governance on Environmental Issues, Netherlands:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1997, p.83.
61 Peter F. Cowhey, "Domestic Institutions and the Credibility of International Commitments:The Cases of Japan and the United States", International Organization, Vol.47, No.2,1993, pp. 299-326.
62民主国家与遵约之间的关系,学术界进行了大量的研究。尽管学者们对遵约依赖于国内政治这一点没有疑问,但是民主国家是否与遵约成正比,仍然值得研究。部分学者就曾指出,在国际贸易及货币金融领域的案例中,民主国家的遵约水平比专制或集权国家差。戴欣媛也指出：选举的重要性并不意味民主国家比非民主国家倾向于遵守国际协定,因为选举对遵约的直接影响水平是由诸如选举压力和信息授权之类的针锋相对的国内利益属性决定的。因而,民主国家并没有展示出更高的遵约水平。参见Dai Xinyuan, "The Conditional Nature of Democratic Compliance", Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.50,No.5, October 2006, pp.690-713.而安妮-玛丽·斯劳特认为基于法律原则基础上的政府,特别是具有独立司法审判权的政府,倾向于遵约。参见Anne-Marie Slaughter, "International Law in a World of Liberal States", European Journal of International Law, Vol.6,No.4,1995,pp.503-538最新的一项相关研究更是通过同一民主体制下的选举人竞争来解释遵约的持续变化。参见Stephanie J. Rickard, "Democratic Differences:Electoral Institutions and Compliance with GATT/WTO Agreements", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.16, No.4,2010, pp.711-729.
63 Oo na A. Hathaway,"The Cost of Commitment", Stanford Law Review, Vol.55,2003, pp.1821-1862.
64 An drew T. Guzman, How International Law Works:A Rational Choice Theory, New York: Oxford University Press,2008.尤其是第三章的相关论述,具体参见该书第71-118页。
65 Geor ge W. Downs and Michael A. Jones,"Reputation, Compliance, and International Law", Journal of Legal Studies, Vol.31,2002, pp.95-114.
66 Jo nas Tallberg, "Paths to Compliance:Enforcement, Management, and the European Union", International Organization, Vol.56, No.3, Summer2002, pp.609-643.
67Kal Raustiala and Da vid G. Victor, "Conclusions", in David G. Victor et al. eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Evidence,p.681.
68 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law", pp.134-165.
69 La urence R. Helfer,"Exiting Treaties", Virginia Law Review, Vol.91,2005, p.1602. International Environmental Law," in Jutta Brunee et al. eds., Oxford Handbook of International
70 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Compliance Theory:Compliance, Effectiveness, and Behavior Change in
71有关主动遵约与被动遵约的论述参见Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and Paul R. Hensel, Environmental Law, p.895. "International Institutions and Compliance with Agreements", American Journal of Political Science, Vol.51, No.4, October 2007, p.734.
72 James Morrow, "When do States Follow the Laws of War?" American Political Science Review, Vol.101,2007, p.562.
73 Gerda Falkner et al., Complying with Europe:EU Harmonisation and Soft Law in the Membe States, New York:Cambridge University Press,2008.
74 An n Kent, Beyond Compliance:China, International Organizations, and Global Security, Stanford:Stanford University Press,2007.
75[美]亚布拉姆·蔡斯、安东尼娅·汉德勒·蔡斯：“论遵约”,载[美]莉莎·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯主编,黄仁伟、蔡鹏鸿等译：《国际制度》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年版,第279 页。
76美国学者克拉托齐威尔(Friedrich Kratochwil)在研究遵守规范问题时提出了三种视角：一是霍布斯的或现实主义的立场,即行为体遵守规范是因为武力或武力威胁；二是休谟的理解,即行为体遵守规范是基于对长远效用的计算；三是涂尔干(Emile Durkheim)的观点,即规范是一种外在的约束个体选择的“社会事实”。参见Friedrich Kratochwil, "The Force of Prescription", International Organization, Vol.38, No.4,1984, p.686.转引自袁正清：《近年来国外国际组织与制度的研究进展》,载王逸舟主编：《国际政治理论与战略前沿问题》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007年版,第75-76页。实际上,霍布斯和休谟的立场可归为理性选择视角,而涂尔干的观点可纳入社会学视角。
77 M oshe Hirsch, "Compliance with International Norms", in Eyal Benvenisti and Moshe Hirsh eds., The Impact of International Law on International Cooperation:Theoretical Perspectives, pp.172-183
78 An drew T. Guzman, How International Law Works:A Rational Choice Theory. 79 Jeffrey T. Checkel,"Why Comply? Social Learning and European Identity Change", International Organization,Vol.55, No.3, Summer2001, p.553.
80Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law",p.141
81国际法的研究者承认了国际关系理论对其造成的影响。王晓丽一方面分析国际法尤其是国际环境法背景下遵约机制的特征及其成因,同时用经济学、国际关系学等相关学科的理论阐释了国际环境条约遵约机制的发生机理及内在范式。参见王晓丽：《国际环境条约遵约机制研究》,中国政法大学博士学位论文,2007年5月,未出版,第34页。
82 Ju dith Kelley, "Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements",The American Political Science Review, Vol.101, No.3,2007, p.573.
83[美]安妮-玛丽·斯劳特著：《世界新秩序》,任晓等译,上海：复旦大学出版社,2010年版,第177页。
84[美]爱迪·布朗·维斯：《理解国际环境协定的遵守：十三个似是而非的观念》,第110页。
85 Kal Raustiala and Anne-Marie Slaughter, "International Law, International Relations and Compliance", in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse and Beth Simmons eds., Handbook of International Relations, SAGE Publications Ltd,2002, p.553.
86 Daniel W. Drezner, All Politics is Global:Explaining International Regulatory Regimes, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2007.
87Rolf Lidskog and Goran Sundqvist, "The Role of Science in Environmental Regimes:the Case of LRTAP", pp.77-101.
88 Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes,"On Compliance", International Organization, Vol.47, No.1,1993,pp.175-205.
89 L isa L. Martin,"Against Compliance",p.4.
90 Kal Raustiala and Anne-Marie Slaughter,"International Law, International Relations and Compliance", p.553.
91 Jeffrey T. Checkel,"Why Comply? Social Learning and European Identity Change", pp. 553-588.
92 Ja na Von Stein, "Do Treaties Constrain or Screen? Selection Bias and Treaty Compliance", American Political Science Review, Vol.99, No.4, pp.611-622.
93 Ju dith Kelley, "Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements",pp.576-578
94 Ju dith Kelley, "Who Keeps International Commitments and Why? The International Criminal Court and Bilateral Nonsurrender Agreements",p.586.
95 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", in Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, p.19.
96[美]乔尔·S·米格代尔著：《强社会与弱国家——第三世界的国家社会关系及国家能力》,张民东等译,南京：江苏人民出版社,2009年版,第267页。
97 Daniel C. O'Neill, "Anne Kent.2007. Beyond Compliance:China, International Organizations, and Global Security",The Review of International Organizations, Vol.4,2009, p.106.
98 Martha Finne more and Kathryn Sikkink, "International Norm Dynamics and Political Change" International Organization, Vol.52, No.4, Autumn 1998, pp.887-917.
99 Beth A. Simmons and Lisa Martin, "International Organizations and Institutions", in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse-Kappen and Beth A. Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations,p.200.
100 Nicholas Onuf, World of Our Making:Rules and Rule in Social Theory and International Relations, Columbia:University of South Carolina Press,1989, p.261.
101 Oran R.Young and Marc A. Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes",pp.4-6.
102[美]安妮-玛丽·斯劳特著：《世界新秩序》,第179页。
103 M. J. Peterson, "International Organizations and the Implementation of Environmental Regimes",in Oran R.Young, ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, pp.115-116.
104[美]莉萨·L.马丁著：《民主国家的承诺：立法部门与国际合作》,刘宏松译,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版,第6页。
105 A rild Underdal, "Methodological Challenges in the Study of Institutional Effectiveness", in Arild Underdal and Oran R. Young eds., Regime Consequences:Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies, p.33.
106[美]莉莎·马丁、贝思·西蒙斯主编：《国际制度》,第279页。
107[美]w.迈克尔·赖斯曼：“国际政治中软法的概念与作用”,载[美]W.迈克尔·赖斯曼著：《国际法：领悟与构建》,马轶南等译,北京：法律出版社,2007年版,第144页。
108 Beth A. Simmons,"Compliance with International Agreements", Annual Review Political Science, Vol.1,1998, pp.75-93.
109 Oran R.Young,Governance in World Affairs, p.124.
110王天夫：“社会研究中的因果分析”,第151页。
111 Geor ge W. Downs, "Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes", p.35.
112 A rild Underdal, "Determining the Causal Significance of Institutions:Accomplishments and Challenges", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder, eds., Institutions and Environmental Change:Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, p.64.
113 Beth A. Simmons and Lisa Martin, "International Organizations and Institutions",p.200.
114 Oran R. Young,"The Consequences of International Regimes:a Framework for Analysis", p.15.
115 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Compliance Theory:Compliance, Effectiveness, and Behavior Change in International Environmental Law", p.898.
116 Kosuke I mai, Luke Keele, and Dustin Tingley, A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2009.
117Kosuke I mai, Luke Keele, and Dustin Tingley, A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis,p.2.
118 Beth A. Simmons and Lisa Martin,"International Organizations and Institutions", p.200.
119 Arild U nderdal and Oran. R. Young, "Research Strategies for the Future:Where do We Go from Here?" pp.366-371.
120 L isa L. Martin,"Against Compliance", p.15.
121 L isa Martin,"Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies", pp.201-206.
122 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, Cambridge: MIT Press,1998, p. v.
123 Daniel A. Mazmanian and Paul A. Sabatier, Implementation and Public Policy, Chicago Foresman&Co.,1983.
124 Edith Br own Weiss, "Rethinking Compliance with International Law",p.140.
125罗伯特·基欧汉指出：“国际制度与国际法本身的紧密联系,国际制度研究与国际法研究是两个不同学科对一个相近或交叉的事物在不同视角下的研究成果,因此,它们之间具有良好的可通约性以及相互借鉴之意义。”参见Robert 0. Keohane, "Compliance with International Commitments:Politics within a Framework of Law", The ASIL Proceedings,1992, pp.176-177.
126 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", in Oran R. Young ed., International Political Economy and International Institutions Volume II, UK:Edward Publishing Limited,1996, p.12.
127 David G. Victor,Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.1-14.
128Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of Acid Rain, p.13.
129 Scott Barret, "On the Theory and Diplomacy of Environmental Treaty-Making" Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol.11, No3-4,1998, pp.317-333.
130 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaersetha and J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Regime, the State and Society Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments", WP-95-43, June 1995, p.27. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/WP-95-043.pdf.
131Oran R. Young, Creating Regimes:Arctic Accords and International Governance, Ithaca: Cornell University Press,1998, p.19.
132James C. Murdocha, Todd Sandlerb and Wim P.M. Vijverberga,"The Participation Decision versus the Level of Participation in an Environmental Treaty:A Spatial Probit Analysis", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, No.2, February2003, p.339.
133 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.15.
134梁西主编：《国际法》,武汉：武汉大学出版社,1993年版,第342页。
135需要指出的是,履行与帕特南提出的双层次博弈理论存在明显的区别。履行可以作为第三个层面的行动。尽管第二个层面的协商者和第一个层面的行为体可能存在对最终协议履行的预期,但在协商之前所考虑的履行是否符合协议达成之后的真正需求存在着疑问。简而言之,本文所论述的履行存在自身的政治逻辑和动态进程。有关双层次博弈理论的介绍参见Robert D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-level Games", in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D. Putnam eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, Berkeley:University of California Press,1993, pp.431-468.
136 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.15.
137粱西主编：《国际法》,第322页。
138 Oran R. Young ed.,International Political Economy and International Institutions Volume Ⅱ, p. ⅹ ⅱ.
139 Kal Raustiala and David G.Victor, "The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resource", in Beth A. Simmons and Richard H. Steinberg eds., International Law and International Relations, Cambridge:Cambridge University,2006, p.707.
140 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making",p.17.
141 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society: Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments, pp.5-6.
142 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society: Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments, p.11.
143 Kenneth Hanf a nd Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.4.
144 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", p.24.
145 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.14.
146 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.14.
147 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.7.
148 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements",p.15.
149 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.6.
150 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society. Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments, p.30.
151国际环境领域履行研究的两部代表作分别为Kenneth Hanf., et.al,The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements:Modelling National/International Linkages, Netherlands: Erasmus University,1996; Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries: Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords.
152 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.9.
153 H.K. Jac obson, E. Brown Weiss, "Implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Lessons from a National Perspective," in Mats Rolen, Helen Sjoberg, and U.Svedin eds., International Governance on Environmental Issues, p.83.
154 S teinar Andresen and Jorgen Wettestad, "International Problem-Solving Effectiveness:The Oslo Project Story So Far", in Oran R.Young ed., International Political Economy and International Institutions Volumell, p.238.
155 Abram Chayes and Antonia Chayes, "On Compliance",p.194.
156 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc Levy, "The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", in Peter M. Haas, Robert Keohane and Marc Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, p.16.
157 Rob ert Keohane, Peter M. Haas and Marc Levy,"The Effectiveness of International Environmental Institutions", p.17.
158 David G. Victor, "'Learning by Doing'in the Nonbinding International Regime to Manage Trade in Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.221-282.
159 Kal Raustiala and David G. Victor,"The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resource", p.705.
160 S teinar Andresen, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and J(?)rgen Wettestad,Regime, the State and Society: Analyzing the Implementation of International Environmental Commitments,pp.8-10.
161 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.15-16.该书研究显示目标集团的参与大体上有助于履行时更全面、更有效,也更现实。
162 S teinar Andresen and Jorgen Wettestad, "International Problem-Solving Effectiveness:The Oslo Project Story So Far", p.240.
163 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "Institutional Aspects of Implementation, Compliance, and Effectiveness", in Urs Luterbacher and Detlef Sprinz eds., International Relations and Global Climate Change, Cambridge:MIT Press,2001, pp.222-223.
164 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.698.
165 Oran Young, International Governance:Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society
166 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.692.
167 Kenneth Hanf and Arild Underdal, "Domesticating International Commitments:Linking National and International Decision-Making", p.17.
1 Oran R. Young, "Building Regimes for Socioecological Systems Institutional Diagnostics", in Oran R. Young, Leslie A. King, and Heike Schroeder eds., Institutions and Environmental Change: Principal Findings, Applications, and Research Frontiers, Cambridge:MIT Press,2008, pp.115-144.
2谢宇：《社会学方法与定量研究》,第40页。
3至少有三种规定因素使得个体议程具有优先性：行为者的活动是政治系统的看门人；单个问题的特定特征,比如对国际社会的重要性；议事领域文化规范的存在,例如,环境自觉的长期演进是国际环境问题持续受到关注的先决条件。
4 Helmut Breitmeie r, "International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", in Oran R.Young ed., Global Governance:Drawing Insights from the Environmental Experience, Cambridge:MIT Press,1997, p.91.
5 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,"Knowledge, Power, and Interests in Environmental Regime Formatio Source", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.47, No.1,2003, p.129.
6 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.56.
7徐再荣：“臭氧层损耗问题与国际社会的回应”,载《世界历史》2003年第3期,第21-28页。徐再荣：《全球环境问题与国际回应》,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007年版。
Karen Litfin, Ozone Discourses, p.52.
9 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.101.
10组织的国家间气象活动,起源于1853年布鲁塞尔气象会议以及于1873年成立的国际气象组织(IMO)开展的全球气象协调合作。IMO更是将早期的气象合作引向极致,并最终促成政府间的国际组织——世界气象组织(WMO)在1950年诞生,协调监督及交换信息是世界气象组织的主要任务。不过,直到1991年,正式的国际气候协商才开始。
11J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.125.
12 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.57.
13 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.103.
14 Helmut B reitmeier,:International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.104.
15 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,"Knowledge, Power, and Interests in Environmental Regime Formation Source", pp.123-150; Peter M. Haas, "Banning Chlorofluorocarbons:Epistemic Community Efforts to Protect Stratospheric Ozone", International Organization, Vol.46, No.1,Winter1992, pp.187-224.
16 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.112.
17以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,长春：吉林人民出版社,2000年版,第101页。
18再荣：“臭氧层损耗问题与国际社会的回应”,第28页。
Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.62.
20据《关于消耗臭氧层物质的蒙特利尔议定书》整理而成。具体参见万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第163-169页。1990年、1992年和1995年,分别在伦敦、哥本哈根和维也纳通过了三个补充议定书。
21 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.58.
22 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992,p.58.
23 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov, Science and International Environmental Policy:Regimes and Nonregimes in Global Governance, Rowman and Littlefield,2006.
24 Edward A.Parson, "The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime", in Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume Ⅲ, London:Sage Publications,2009, p.295.
25 Edward A.Parson,"The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime", p.296.
26[美]理查德·埃利奥特·本尼迪克：“从臭氧空洞中汲取的教训”,载《世界环境》1991年第3期,第16页。
27[埃]穆斯塔法·托尔巴：“需要再前进一步：十九个月后的蒙特利尔议定书——托尔巴博 士在蒙特利尔议定书缔约国第一次会议上的讲话”,载《世界环境》1989年第4期,第22页。
28 Paul Wapner, "Reorienting State Sovereignty:Rights and Responsibilities in the Environmental Age", in Karen T. Litfin ed., The Greening of Sovereignty in World Politics, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.286.
29王杰、张海滨、张志洲主编：《全球治理中的国际非政府组织》,北京：北京大学出版社,2004年版,第299页。
30 Paul Wapner, Environmental Activism and World Civic Politics, Albany, NY:State University of New York Press,1996, pp.127-128.
31 Barbara Bramble and Gareth Porter, "Non-Governmental Organizations and the Making of U.S. International Environmental Policy", in Andrew Hurrell and Benedict Kingsbury eds.,The International Politics of the Environment, Oxford:Clarendon Press,1992.
32[美]理查德·埃利奥特·本尼迪克：“从臭氧空洞中汲取的教训”,第17页。
33 Edward A. Parson, "Protecting the Ozone Layer:The Evolution and Impact of International Institutions", CSIA Discussion Paper 92-02, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 1991, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/discussion_paper_92_02.pdf.
34 Miles Kahle r, "Conclusion:The Causes and Consequences of Legalization", p.682.
35 Ju dith Goldstein, Miles Kahler, Robert O. Keohane, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, "Introduction: Legalization and World Politics", International Organization, Vol.54, No.3, Summer2000, p.397.
36 Beth A.Simmons, "Compliance with International Agreements", in Nelson W. Polsby and Palo Alto eds., Annual Review of Political Science, Vol.1, Calif:Annual Reviews, Inc, p.78.
37万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第99-122页。
38[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,中国国家环境保护总局国际合作司译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002年版,第90页。
39 Jor gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, pp.154-155.
40[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002)),第91页。
Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies,p.62.
42约尔根·韦特斯塔德对此进行了很好的总结。参见J(?)rgen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.155不过也有学者认为臭氧层制度中的履行委员会只起到了接受、分析和上报缔约方提交非遵约秘书处的数据,因而在监督环境制度的遵约上存在问题。参见Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies, pp.62-63.
43参见[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第89页。
44 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.157.
45 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime.The Key Conditions, p.157.
461991年6月,在内罗毕召开的第三次议定书缔约国会议具有重要的影响,会议要求特设法律专家工作组在制定新的有关非遵约程序时应该：(1)找出议定书不遵守情事的可能情况；(2)制定一个咨询和调解措施的指示性清单,以鼓励全面遵守；(3)反映履行委员会作为一个咨询和调解机构的作用；同时铭记不遵守情事程序履行委员会的建议都必须提交缔约国会议作最后决定；(4)反映对议定书的规定可能需要作出法律解释：(5)制定一个指示性清单,列出缔约国会议对未遵守议定书的缔约国可能采取哪些措施,要考虑到需要向各国特别是发展中国家提供一切可能的援助,以使它们能够遵守议定书。第三次议定书缔约国会议导致了1992年第四次议定书缔约国会议所通过的不遵约程序。有关不遵守程序历次的调整与修正,可参见朱鹏飞：“论《蒙特利尔议定书》不遵守情事程序”,载《政治与法律》2008年第10期,第148-149页。
47哥本哈根会议是1992年联合国环境与发展大会之后举行的第一个主要国际环境大会,有关这次会议的详细论述参见Ian H. Rowlands, "The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection", Environment, Vol.35, No.6,1993, pp.25-34.
48朱鹏飞：“论《蒙特利尔议定书》不遵守情事程序”,第147页。
49 David G. Victor, "The Operation and Effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol's Non-compliance Procedure", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.137.
50 David G. Victor,"The Operation and Effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol's Non-compliance Procedure", p.139.
51J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, p.157
52 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.401.
53 Ron ald B.Mitchell, International Politics and the Environment, London:Sage Publications, 2010, p.28.
54 Edward A.Parson,"The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime", in Ronald B.Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume Ⅲ, p.291.
55参见[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第87页。
56 Ian H. Rowlands, "The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection", p.25.
57[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第87-90页。
58 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O. Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.401.
59 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.415.
60 Curtis A. Bradley, Judith G. Kelley, "The Concept of International Delegation", Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.71, No.1,2008, p.102.美国知名杂志《法律与当代问题》(Law and Contemporary Problems)于2008年第一期推出了“国际授权的法律与政治”的专刊,柯蒂斯·布拉德利、朱迪斯·凯利卡伦·奥尔特(Karen J. Alter)、劳伦斯·希弗(Laurence R. Helfer)、乌纳·海瑟薇等国际法学者围绕着授权的基本概念、授权与主权、授权的实际运用等方面展开了热烈讨论。参见Curtis A. Bradley, Judith G.. Kelley eds., "The Law and Politics of International Delegation",Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol.71, No.1,2008.
61 Edward T. Swaine, "The Constitutionality of International Delegations", Columbia Law Review, 2004, Vol.104, p.1494.
62 Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney, "Delegation under Anarchy:States, International Organizations, and Principal-agent Theory", in Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney eds., Delegation and Agency in International Organizations, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2006, p.7.
63 L isa L. Martin, "Distribution, Information, and Delegation to International Organizations:The Case of IMF Conditionality", in Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney eds., Delegation and Agency in International Organizations, p.140.
64见[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002)),第91-92页。
65 Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney, "Delegation under Anarchy:States, International Organizations, and Principal-agent Theory", pp.17-18.
66世界环境与发展委员会编：《我们共同的未来》,国家环保局外事办公室译,北京：世界知识出版社,1989年版,第319页。
67 Oran R.Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes:Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, p.2.
68 Darren G. Hawkins, David A. Lake, Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney, "Delegation under Anarchy:States, International Organizations, and Principal-agent Theory", p.18.
69 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.406.
70 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", p.406.
71 Kenneth W. Abbott, Robert O.Keohane, Andrew Moravcsik, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Duncan Snidal, "The Concept of Legalization", pp.406-407.
72 David G. Victor, "The Operation and Effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol's Non-compliance Procedure", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments, pp.137-176.
73 Owen Greene, "The System for Implementation Review in the Ozone Regime", in David G. Victor, Kai Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments, p.90.
74 Kenneth Hanf, "The Domestic Basis of International Environmental Agreements", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:
The Case of Acid Rain, pp.1-2.
75 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.42.
76 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.35.
77 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.63.
78 Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World,1973-1992, p.64.
79 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacv.New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet.p.39. Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, Boulder, CO:Westview
80 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D.Dabelko eds., Press,1998, p.143.
81 Paul Wapner, Environmental Activism and World Civic Politics, p.131.
82 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet", p.144.相关的介绍也可参见徐再荣：“臭氧层损耗问题与国际社会的回应”,第28页。
83 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet" pp.144-145.
84夏正伟、梁天亮：“试析里根政府的臭氧环境外交”,载《历史教学问题》2010年第4期,第15页。
85齐皓：“国际环境问题合作的成败——基于国际气候系统损害的研究”,载《国际政治科学》2010年第4期,第92页。
86邱桂荣：“环境领域的中美关系”,载李铁城、钱文荣主编：《联合国框架下的中美关系》,北京：人民出版社,2006年版,第358页。
87夏正伟、梁天亮：“试析里根政府的臭氧环境外交”,第17-18页。
88齐皓：“国际环境问题合作的成败——基于国际气候系统损害的研究”,第96-97页。事实上,从1930年托马斯·米奇利(Thomas Midgely)发明了基于CFC-12(氟氯碳化物的一种)的冰箱制冷剂以来,氟里昂大量应用于工业生产,成为冰箱的制冷剂,杜邦公司一直是这一臭氧层破坏元凶的重要生产商。
89最近的一篇研究文章认为在气候变化这一问题领域,合作前景很悲观,原因是合作的未来收益模糊而现实成本巨大,该研究突破了侧重于交易成本的传统研究,对气候谈判的前景有启发意义。参见齐皓：“国际环境问题合作的成败——基于国际气候系统损害的研究”,第82-111页。不过,在国际臭氧层保护领域,由于坚信“等科学证据确凿时,破坏已经无法挽回”,果断的国际合作行动促成了国际臭氧层保护制度成为国际环境保护领域成功的模式,成为解决全球生态危机的新典范。
90 Helmut Breitmeier,"International Organizations and the Creation of Environmental Regimes", p.107.
91杜邦公司的转变与美国政府的政策有关,1978年,美国政府出台政策,禁止使用气溶推进剂(aerosol propellants),促使像杜邦公司这样的大企业寻求替代物。参见Mostafa K. Tolba, Global Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating Environmental Agreements for the World, 1973-1992, p.57.
92穆斯塔法·托尔巴在1985年维也纳召开的会议上指出：“1993年,CFC-11、CFC-12两种物质比1992年增加了百分之七。气雾剂型和非气雾剂型的使用都增加了。”在协议签订前的最后阶段,托尔巴召集关键利益方开了几次非正式会议,讨论他自己提交的《蒙特利尔议定书》的草本。他支持氟氢碳化物管制的渐进方案,冻结并逐步减少使用氟氢碳化物。具体参见Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, pp.83-87.
93 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko eds. Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, p.146.
94 Jeffrey T. Checkel,"Norms, Institutions and National Identity in Contemporary Europe", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.43,1999, pp.83-114.
95 An drew P. Cortell and James W. Davis, Jr., "Understanding the Domestic Impact of International Norms:A Research Agenda", International Studies Review, Vol.2, No.1, Spring2000, p.86.
96 Charles W. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf, American Foreign Policy:Pattern and Process, New York:ST. Martin Press,1996, p.100.
97杨洁篪：“合作共赢是中国与各国关系主导面”,载《解放日报》2011年3月8日,第4版。
98 Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", in Karen T. Litfin ed., The Greening of Sovereignty in World Politics, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, pp.178-179.
99 Jo ao Augusto de Araujo Castro, "Environment and Development:The Case of the Developing Countries", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko eds., Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, p.39.
100 Jo ao Augusto de Araujo Castro, "Environment and Development:The Case of the Developing Countries", p.39.
101 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.130.
102 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.148.
103 Ian H. Rowlands, "The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection", Environment, Vol.35, No.6,1993, pp.25-34.
104 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.129.
105在《蒙特利尔议定书》签订时,只占世界人口25%不到的发达国家,消耗了世界88%的氟氯碳化物；发达国家的人均消费量是发展中国家的20倍。但这种情况很快就发生了改变,单就中国而言,当时人均消费量氟氯碳化物只是欧共体集团和美国的1/40,而今,中国早已是世界上最主要的氟氯碳化物消费国,即使考虑到人口因素,这种增长也是显而易见的。客观地说,发展中国家的这种潜能将削弱刚刚建立的国际臭氧层保护制度的有效性。
106 Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", pp.177-178.
107Jo ao Augusto de Araujo Castro, "Environment and Development:The Case of the Developing Countries", p.33.
108万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第169页。
109万以诚等编：《新文明的路标——人类绿色运动史上的经典文献》,第197页。
110玛利亚·米勒是关注发展研究与环境研究、国际环境问题与第三世界之间关系的知名学者,1996年其著作《全球环境政治中的第三世界》获得了国际研究协会环境研究分会的Sprout奖,成为国际环境政治领域的一部重要著作。可惜,玛利亚·米勒因患非霍奇金淋巴瘤(non-Hodgkin's lymphoma)于2003年病逝,年仅53岁。《全球环境政治》杂志于2005年第3期以“全球南方与环境”为题,出版了纪念特刊。参见Jennifer Clapp, "Special Issue:The Global South and the Environment Essays in Memory of Marian A.L. Miller",Global Environmental Politics,Vol.5, No.3, August2005.
111Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", p.175.
112 Marian A.L.Miller, "Sovereignty Reconfigured:Environmental Regimes and Third World States", p.190.
113 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.152.
114 Marian A.L. Miller, The Third World in Global Environmental Politics, Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers,1995, p.80.
115 Multi ateral Fund, Creating a Real Change for the Environment, Montreal:Multilateral Fund Secretariat,2005, p.2-7.
116 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.158.
117 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.316.
118 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,Science and International Environmental Policy:Regimes and Nonregimes in Global Governance, pp.63-64.
119 Rad oslav S. Dimitrov,Science and International Environmental Policy:Regimes and Nonregimes in Global Governance, p.63.
120 Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, p.317.
121 Ian H. Rowlands,"The Fourth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol:Report and Reflection",pp.25-34.
122 R umen D. Bojkov, The Changing Ozone Layer, Geneva:WTO/UNEP,1995, forward.
123 Richard Elliot Benedick, "Ozone Diplomacy", in Ken Conca and Geoffrey D. Dabelko eds., Green Planet Blues:Environmental Politics from Stockholm to Kyoto, p.148.
124 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.138.
125比如,爱德华·帕森论述了影响国际臭氧层制度的因素,包括氟氯碳化物替代技术的可利用程度,关注臭氧层损耗的科学基础,协商的制度文本,活动分子授权联盟,美国的领导和权威评估。参见Edward A.Parson, "The Theoretical and Practical Significance of the Ozone Regime",p.293罗纳德·米切尔也在给笔者的电子邮件中指出,对制度有效性影响因素需要做具体、深入的研究。
1 Ron aid B. Mitchell,International Politics and the Environment, p.10.
2西方学术界有关空气污染管制的著作众多,代表性的著作有John McCormick,Acid Earth, London:Earthscan,1989; Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen and Jim Skea,Acid Politics:Environmental and Energy Policies in Britain and Germany, London:Belhaven Press,1991; Thomas Gehring, Dynamic International Regimes:Institutions for International Environmental Governance, Frankfurt:Peter Lang,1994; Jorgen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions, Hants:Edward Elgar,1999; Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:The Case of Acid Rain, Burlington:Ashgate, 2000.
3 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", American Journal of Political Science, Vol.49, No.1,2005, p.86.
4 Mark Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Mark Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, p.75.
5 Mark Lev y, "International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", in Helge Ole Bergesen, Georg Parmann and (?)ystein B. Thommessen eds., Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, p.59.
6 Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.216.
7[挪]约根·维特斯塔：“1999年多污染因子议定书：是一个在解决欧洲大气污染方面被忽视的突破吗?”,载[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,中国国家环境保护总局国际合作司译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002年版,第25页。
8 A bram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes,The New Sovereignty:Compliance with International Regulatory Agreements, p.183.
9 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions,, pp.85-86.
10[埃]穆斯塔法·托尔巴：“联合国环境规划署呼吁控制酸雨——托尔巴博士在欧洲空气污染多国会议上的讲话”,载《世界环境》1985年第3期,第20页。
11 Xinyuan Dai, International Institutions and National Policies, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.84.
12从国际制度理论视角对欧洲酸雨机制的研究包括:Mark Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter Haas, Robert O. Keohane and Mark Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press, pp.75-132; Detlef F. Sprinz, "Domestic Politics and European Acid Rain Regulation", in Arild Underdal ed., The Politics of International Environmental Management, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1995, pp.41-66.
13本部分的内容参见Dai Xinyuan, "Why Comply? The Domestic Constituency Mechanism". International Organization, Vol.59, No.2,Spring2005, pp.363-398.
14 Xinyuan Dai,International Institutions and National Policies, p.89.
15 Helmut Breitmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, pp.73-110.
16 R onald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.62.
17 Ron ald B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.62.
18 Oran R.Young, "Are Institutions Intervening Variables or Basic Causal Forces? Causal Clusters vs. Causal Chains in International Society", in Michael Breecher and Frank Harvey eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies, Ann Arbor:University of Michigan Press,2002, pp.176-191.
19 Geor ge Downs, David Rocke and Peter Barsoom,"Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation", International Organization, Vol.50, No.3,1996, pp.379-406.
20 Ron aid B. Mitchell,"A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes", p.61.
21 Ron ald B. Mitchell, "A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.64.
22 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.67.
23 James C. Murdoch, Tod Sandler and Keith Sargent, " A Tale of Two Collectives:Sulphur Versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe", Economica,Vol.64, May 1997, pp.281-301.
24国际制度对非成员国作用的动因何在,其作用是否等同于对成员国的作用,对这些问题的回答是当前研究所缺乏的。王玮对此进行了初步的考察,他认为如果非成员国同国际制度互动的渠道存在且非成员国对互动渠道有一定的依赖,那么国际制度将构成制约非成员国行为的社会环境。参见王玮：“国际制度对非成员国的作用”,载《国际观察》2009年第2期,第65-72页。
25 Ron aid B. Mitchell, "A Quantitative Approach to Evaluating International Environmental Regimes",p.68.
26 Beth Simmons, "Compliance in International Relations", Paper Presented at the 2000 Annual Meeting of APS A, August 31-Semtember 3,2000, Washington, DC.
27 Edith Br own Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson eds., Engaging Countries:Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1998, p.4.
28 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.30.
29 Helmut Breitmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.110.
30 Helmut Bre itmeier, Oran R. Young and Michael Ziirn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, p.112.
31 J(?)r gen Wettestad, Designing Effective Environmental Regime:The Key Conditions; Jorge Wettestad, Clearing the Air-European Advances in Tackling Acid Rain and Atmospheric Pollution, Burlington:Ashgate,2002.
32M arc A. Levy, "International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", in Helge Ole Bergese Georg Parmann and Oystein B. Thommessen eds., Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, p.59.
33[挪]约根·维特斯塔：“1999年多污染因子议定书：是一个在解决欧洲大气污染方面被忽视的突破吗?”,第26页。
34Ron ald B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, Cambridge, Mass.:MIT Press,1994, p.30.
35[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002》,第74页
6 Jo hn McCormick, "Acid Pollution:The International Community's Continuing Struggle", Environment, Vol.40, No.3,1998, p.19.
37Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A.Levy, "Acid Rain in Europe and North America", in Oran R. Young ed., The Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: Causal Connections and Behavioral Mechanisms, Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press,1999, p.234.
38 M arc A. Levy,"International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", p.60.
39 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.132.
40 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy",p.132.
41 Jo hn McCormick, "Acid Pollution:The International Community's Continuing Struggle", p.21.
42酸雨问题是美加两国环境外交的重要部分,历史学领域研究者进行了很好的阐述,参见杨令侠：“加拿大与美国关于酸雨的环境外交”,载《南开学报(哲学社会科学版)》2002年第3期,第118-124页。
M arc A. Levy,"International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", p.60.
44二氧化硫给欧共体带来的损失参见Graham Bennet, Dilemmas:Coping with Environmental Problems, London:Earthscan,1992, pp.103-104.
" Jo hn McCormick, "Acid Pollution:The International Community's Continuing Struggle", p.43.
46临界负荷”被定义为“暴露在一种或者多种污染物下量化的估计数,当低于该数值时,依据目前人们掌握的知识不会对环境的特定敏感因素产生重大的有害影响”。参见Marc Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", in Peter M. Haas, Robert Keohane and Marc Levy eds., Institutions for the Earth:Sources of Effective International Environmental Protection, p.24.一般认为,当前临界负荷最低的地区是瑞典、芬兰、英德北部地区,需要将硫排放量减少90%才能处于临界负荷之下。
47 Arild U nderdal, "One Question, Two Answers", in Ronald B. Mitchell ed., International Environmental Politics:Volume Ⅲ, London:Sage Publications,2009, pp.15-21.
48 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.90.
49 Mark Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy"; J(?)rgen Wettestad, "The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution", in Edward L.Miles, Arild Underdal, Steinar Andresen, J(?)rgen Wettestad, Jon Birger Skjaerseth and Elaine M. Carlin eds., Environmental Regime Effectiveness:Confronting Theory with Evidence, pp.197-221
50 A rild Underdal, "Concetptual Framework:Modelling Supply of and Demand for Environmental Regulation", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics:The Case of Acid Rain, Ashgate:Aldershot, 2000, pp.49-86.
51 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.99.
52 J ohn C. Murdoch and Todd Sandler, "Voluntary Cutbacks and Pretreaty Behavior:The Helsinki Protocol and Sulfur Emissions", Public Finance Review, Vol.25, No.139,1997, p.142.
53 J ohn C. Murdoch, Todd Sandler and Wim Vijverberg,"The Participation Decision Versus the Level of Participation in an Environmental Treaty:A Spatial Probit Analysis", Journal of Public Economics, Vol.87, No.2, February2003, pp.337-362.
54 J ohn C. Murdoch, Todd Sandler and Keith Sargent, "A Tale of Two Collectives:Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe", Economica, Vol.64,1997, pp.281-301.
55奥斯陆-波茨坦方案中“没有机制”的有效性分值是0,“完美状态”上界有效性分值是1。参见Carsten Helm and Detlef F. Sprinz," Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes", pp.630-632。
56 Ron ald B.Mitchell, "The Relative Effects of Environmental Regimes:A Quantitative Comparison of Four Acid Rain Protocols", Paper presented at the 2003 International Studies Association Conference, Portland, Oregon, February 2003.
57 Evan J. Ringquist and Tatiana Kostadinova, "Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements:The Case of the 1985 Helsinki Protocol", p.91.
58 Jor gen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway:Different Approaches, but Similar Results?" in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, Cambridge:MIT Press,1998, p.383.
59其中德国与其它两个国家存在一定差别,德国科学家伯恩哈德·鸟尔里希(Bernhard Ulrich)注意到了酸雨对德国森林的破坏,相关研究于1981年11月发表在德国知名的《明镜》杂志上,很快引起了德国民众的广泛关注。
60 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.120.
61 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.127.
62 Ron ald B. Mitchell,International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.32.
63 Ron ald B. Mitchell,International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.31.
64[挪]弗里德约夫·南森研究所编：《绿色全球年鉴2001/2002)),第74-75页。
65 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.124.
66 Marc Lev y, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.117.
67J(?)r gen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway:Different Approaches, but Similar Results?" p.384;Kenneth Hanf, "The Problem of Long-Range Transport of Air Pollution and the Acidification Regime", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of Acid Rain, Burlington:Ashgate,2000, p.33.
68 Marc A. Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", p.96.
69 EM EP, "The 1988 Sofia Protocol Concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or Their Transboundary Fluxes", http://unece.org/env/lrtap/full%20text/1988.NOX.e.pdf.译文引自[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1999/2000》,中国国家环境保护总局国际合作司译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2001年版,第80页。
70 Kenneth Hanf, "The Problem of Long-Range Transport of Air Pollution and the Acidification Regime", p.35.
71 Marc A. Levy, "European Acid Rain:The Power of Tote-Board Diplomacy", pp.97-98.
72 Mark Lev y, "International Cooperation to Combat Acid Rain", in Helge Ole Bergesen, Georg Parmann and (?)ystein B. Thommessen eds., Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, p.66.也可参见[挪]马克·列维：“与酸雨斗争的国际合作”,载[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1995》,国家环境保护局译,北京：中国环境科学出版社,1995年版。
73 Jor gen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway: Different Approaches, but Similar Results?" p.388.
74[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1999/2000》,第84页。
75 Elizabeth R.Desombre,The Global Environment and World Politics, p.231-231.
76 Ju an Carlos di Primio, "Data Quality and Compliance Control in the European Air Pollution Regime", in David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.283.
" Ju an Carlos di Primio,"Data Quality and Compliance Control in the European Air Pollution Regime", p.287.
78 Jor gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",Global Environmental Change, Vol.7, No.3, p.237.
79[挪]费里德约夫·南森研究所编：《环境与发展的国际合作：绿色全球年鉴1999/2000》,第85页。
David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.51-52
81 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds.,The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.305.
82戴维·维克特等人认为国家层面上影响履行的因素不光是参与,还有转型(transition)因素、公众关注的水平以及提升环境质量的压力等不可分割的因素。参见David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala, and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, pp.305-306.
83 Rolf Lidskog and Goran Sundqvist, "The Role of Science in Environmental Regimes:The Case of LRTAP", European Journal of International Relations, Vol.8, No.1,2002, pp.77-101.
84 David G. Victor, Kal Raustiala and Eugene B. Skolnikoff eds., The Implementation and Effectiveness of International Environmental Commitments:Theory and Practice, p.310.
85 Arild U nderdal, "Comparative Analysis:Accounting for Variance and Actor Behavior", in Arild Underdal and Kenneth Hanf eds., International Environmental Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of Acid Rain, Ashgate:Aldershot,2000, p.349.
86挪威、英国的案例参见J(?)rgen Wettestad, "Participation in NOx Policy-Making and Implementation in the Netherlands, UK, and Norway:Different Approaches, but Similar Results?"pp.381-429.
87 J(?)r gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",p.239.
88 Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A. Levy,"Acid Rain in Europe and North America", p.175.
89 Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A. Levy,"Acid Rain in Europe and North America", p.236.
90 Jor gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",p.241.
91J(?)r gen Wettestad, "Acid lessons? LRTAP Implementation and Effectiveness",pp.242-243.
92 Do n Munton, Marvin Soroos, Elena Nikitina and Mark A.Levy,"Acid Rain in Europe and North America",pp.179-180
93 Ron aid B. Mitchell,"International Environment", in Thomas Risse, Beth Simmons, and Walter Carlsnaes eds., Handbook of International Relations, California:Sage Publications,2002,p.500.
1 Rob ert O. Keohane, "Big Questions in the Study of World Politics", in Christian Reus-Smit and Duncan Snidal eds., The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2008, p.713.
2 F rank Biermann, Philipp Pattberg, Harro van Asselt and Fariborz Zelli, "The Fragmentation of Global Governance Architectures:A Framework for Analysis", Global Environmental Politics, Vol. 9, No.4,2009, pp.14-40.
3参见Oran R.Young, Institutional Dynamics:Emergent Patterns in International Environmental Governance, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2010奥兰·扬是继罗伯特·基欧汉之外的另一位国际制度研究大家,他对制度议题的敏锐发现、持续关注以及具有饱满的研究热情为后来者所称道。
4 Euge ne A. Rosa and Thomas Dietz, "Global Transformations:Passage to a New Ecological Era", in Eugene A. Rosa, Andreas Diekmann, Thomas Dietz and Carlo Jaeger eds., Human Footprints on the Global Environment Threats to Sustainability, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2010,p.35.
5石斌：“相互依赖·国际制度·全球治理——罗伯特·基欧汉的世界政治思想”,载《国际政治研究》2005年第4期,第41页。
6 Oran R. Young, "Regime Theory and the Quest for Global Governance", in Alice D. Ba and Matthew J. Hoffmann eds., Contending Perspectives on Global Governance:Coherence, Contestation and World Order, London and New York:Routledge,2005, pp.89-90.
Kal Raustiala and David G. Victor,"The Regime Complex for Plant Genetic Resources", International Organization, Vol.58, No.2,2004, p.279.
8 Helmut Breitmeie r, Oran R. Young and Michael Zurn, Analyzing International Environmental Regimes:From Case Study to Database, Cambridge:The MIT Press,2006该书认为应该关注数据库的质量控制(quality control)、兼容性(compatibility)以及许可(access)
9 Geor ge W. Downs, "Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes", p.26.
10刘青建：《发展中国家与国际制度》,第86页。
Elizabeth R. Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.62.
12刘青建：“发展中国家国际制度选择的困境及其理性思考”,载《世界经济与政治》2002年第12期,第43-48页；刘青建：“发展中国家的国际脆弱性与南北关系的发展前景”,载《教学与研究》2003年第6期,第69-73页。
S tephen D. Krasner, Structural Conflict:The Third World against Global Liberalism, California: University of California Press,1985, p.75中译本可参见[美]斯蒂芬·D.克莱斯勒著：《结构冲突：第三世界对抗全球自由主义》,李小华译,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2001年版,第72页。
14 Elizabeth R.Desombre, The Global Environment and World Politics, p.63.
15苏长和：“新制度主义与旧制度主义——国际政治生活中的制度因素”,载徐以骅主编：《世纪之交的国际关系》,上海：上海远东出版社,2002年版,第87-89页。
16 Ron aid B. Mitchell, International Oil Pollution at Sea:Environmental Policy and Treaty Compliance, p.334.
17 Marian A.L. Miller, The Third World in Global Environmental Politics, p.152.
18周雪光：《组织社会学十讲》,第174页。
19谢喆平、张小劲：“传授与学习：中国参与联合国教科文组织的经验研究”,载《外交评论》2011年第1期,第48-59页。
20 Daniel Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:The Interaction of Domestic and International Institutions.2003.
21 Marian A.L. Miller, The Third World in Global Environmental Politics, p.139.
22 Michael Bar nett and Martha Finnemore, Rules for the World:International Organizations in Global Politics, Ithaca and London:Cornell University Press,2004, p.12.
23[美]江忆恩：“美国学者关于中国与国际组织关系研究概述”,载《世界经济与政治》2001年第8期,第48-53页。
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