基于农户响应行为的黑龙江省农业自然灾害风险管理研究
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摘要
在全球气候与环境变化的背景下,中国农业自然灾害风险呈现出受灾频率加快、灾害范围扩大、灾害程度加重、经济损失趋重的态势。从全国各省来看,黑龙江省灾情严重,农作物受灾面积在各粮食主产区中最大,同时,黑龙江省又是国家重要的粮食主产区和商品粮基地,因此,黑龙江省农业自然灾害风险的加大对国内粮食市场供应和保障国家粮食安全造成严重威胁。在这样的背景下,如何通过风险管理、以较小的成本来获取农业经济最大的安全保障,维持农业经济的可持续发展,是我国,尤其是黑龙江省亟待解决的一个课题。
从总体上看,当前的中国农业自然灾害风险管理制度和研究更多的强调以政府为主体,以救助和补偿为主要策略,而农户作为灾害风险的承担者和风险处理策略的执行者处于被动地位,较少关注农户的抗风险行为,且现有农户风险策略的研究单一性比较强,不具有系统性。本文从农户这一微观层次出发,从风险管理理论角度,建立起以农户为主的自然灾害风险管理体系,并依据黑龙江省统计数据和农户实地调研数据,采用多种实证分析方法,研究农户对风险管理策略的响应行为以及这些风险管理措施的有效性,并构建logistic模型,对农户采用不同风险管理策略的影响因素进行分析。本文共八章,分为五个部分。主要研究内容及结论如下：
第一部分,绪论。阐述了本研究背景及目的和意义,系统的回顾及总结了农业自然灾害和农户行为的国内外研究成果,并进行述评,指明本文研究的出发点,阐述了论文的研究思路和框架,说明本文所用的主要研究方法及分析技术路线,并交代了本研究的数据资料及来源。
第二部分,黑龙江省农业自然灾害及其趋势分析。通过时间序列数据分析黑龙江省农业自然灾害现状、特征以及未来变化趋势,利用环比增长率对自然灾害和粮食总产之间的相关性进行分析,并对粮食生产以及农户收入的影响进行估算。
第三部分,农业自然灾害风险管理的理论分析框架。阐述了农业自然灾害风险管理的理论基础；对农业自然灾害风险以及自然灾害风险管理的内涵进行界定；从风险管理理论视角,提出农业自然灾害风险管理的内容,构建农户自然灾害风险处理策略体系,即：风险预防策略、风险转移策略、风险分散策略、风险缓解策略四个方面,并进一步界定每一策略的研究对象。
第四部分,包括第4、第5、第6和第7章。这是本文的核心部分。依据农户调研数据,分别以玉米优良品种、节水灌溉技术、多样化种植行为和农业保险为研究对象,对自然灾害风险预防策略、缓解策略、分散策略和转移策略的农户响应行为和影响因素进行分析。
第五部分,提升农户抗灾能力的对策建议。根据上述四个模型结果得出综合结论,并根据结论,从微观层面和宏观层面提出促进自然灾害风险管理策略能够有效实施,从而提升农户抗灾能力的对策建议。
研究结论如下：(1)由于黑龙江省自然灾害呈加重态势,而风险管理策略的农户采用情况并不理想,在仍不改变当前状态的条件下,黑龙江省自然灾害损失风险进一步加大。(2)农户灾害风险管理策略的选择行为是理性的,这种理性选择是由农户自身的资源禀赋、风险认知和自然环境条件决定的。但由于市场的不完全性以及信息不对称,从社会福利角度看,这样的理性行为是次优的经济决策,需要政府或第三方力量来矫正农户行为偏差。(3)农户信息获取途径有限且质量不高,主要渠道是传统的电视广播等大众媒体和人际传播,农业科技推广部门、保险公司等这些风险管理技术的提供者没有成为信息服务主体。(4)农户家庭经营特征比个性特征对风险管理策略行为的影响更显著,政府政策对非工程性策略影响不显著,农户风险认知、风险管理认知程度以及社会资本也对农户风险管理策略采用行为有影响。(5)从风险管理角度构建了以农户为主体的农业自然灾害风险管理体系,并根据综合回归结果从微观和宏观两个层面提出提升农户抗灾能力的对策建议。
Under the background of global climate and environment changes, agricultural natural disasters in Heilongjiang province, even in China, show the tendency that frequency of disaster quickens, the scope of disaster widens, and the degree of disaster becomes more serious, and economic loss becomes worse. Among all provinces in China, disasters in Heilongjiang province are the worst, and crops' damage area is the largest among all main grain-producing areas. At the same time, Heilongjiang province is an important grain-producing area and commodity grain base. As a result, increasing risk on agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang province threatens seriously to domestic grain market supply and guaranteeing national grain securities. Under such circumstance, how to get the best security guarantee on agricultural economy by risk management and at the least cost in order to maintain sustainable development on agricultural economy becomes an urgent task for Heilongjiang province and China.
Generally speaking, current risk management system and research on agricultural natural disaster in China emphasize more on government as the main body, and take help and compensation as main strategies. While farmers, the undertakers of disaster risk and the performers of risk management strategies, are in passive positions. Current research on farmers' risk strategies is simplex and not systematic, and pays less attention to farmers' risk resistance behavior. The dissertation, on the basis of farmers as the micro-layer, from the angel of risk management theories, sets up natural disaster risk management system taking farmers as the main body. According to statistics data in Heilongjiang Province and farmers' field research data, using all kinds of positive analysis methods, the dissertation studies farmers' respondent behavior on risk management strategies and the effectiveness of these strategies, builds logistic model, and analyzes influence factors of risk management strategies taken by farmers. The dissertation consists of8chapters and divides into five parts. The main content and conclusion is as follows:
The first part is introduction. It describes the background, aim and significance of the research, and systematically reviews and summarizes research results at home and abroad on agricultural natural disaster and farmers' behavior, and then comments accordingly. It figures out the paper's beginning point and explains the research thought and framework. It explains the paper's main research methods and analysis technology methods, and also shows the data and its source.
The second part analyzes agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang and its tendency. Through time series data analysis on current situation, characteristics and future change tendency of agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang, the relevance between natural disaster and grain gross product is analyzed by cycle growth of rate, the influence on grain product and farmers'income is estimated.
The third part is theoretical analysis framework on agricultural natural disaster risk management. It explains theoretical foundation of agricultural natural disaster risk management; It defines the connotation of agricultural natural disaster risk and agricultural natural disaster risk management; From theoretical angel of risk management, it suggests the content of agricultural natural disaster risk management and builds agricultural natural disaster risk management strategy systems, including four aspects, namely:risk-prevention strategy, risk transfer strategy, risk diversification strategy and risk relief strategy, and further defines the research object of each strategy.
The forth part includes the forth, fifth, sixth and seventh chapters, which is the core part of the dissertation. According to farmers' investigation data, natural disaster risk protection strategy, risk transfer strategy, risk diversification strategy and risk relief strategy are analyzed by taking good strains of corn seeds, water saving irrigation technology, multiple planting ways and agriculture insurance as research objects.
The fifth part is the Countermeasures on Improving Farmer's Ability of Fighting Natural Disasters. According to the four models above, comprehensive conclusions are made. On the basis of the conclusion, policy and suggestions which can prompt natural disaster risk management strategies to carry out effectively are proposed from microcosmic and macroscopical two levels.
The conclusion is as follow:(1) Due to the natural disaster in Heilongjiang province has increased trend, and farmers' adoption of risk management strategies is not ideal. So under the current conditions that the state still do not change, the loss of natural disasters risk in Heilongjiang province further increase.(2) Farmer's choosing behavior of disaster risk management strategy is rational,and the rational choice is determine with resource endowment of farmer oneself, risk perception and the natural environment conditions. But because the market is incomplete and asymmetric information, from a social welfare perspective, this rational behavior is suboptimal economic decision-making, and need government or third party to correct the farmer behavior deviation.(3) Farmers' access to information is limited and the quality is not high, the main channel is the traditional television and other mass media and interpersonal communication, and the risk management technology provider, promotion of agricultural science and Technology Department, the insurance companies, did not become the main information service subject.(4) Farmer's family manages characteristic is more significant than the personality characteristics on risk management strategy behavior. Government policy on non-engineering strategy is not significantly affected. Farmers's risk perception, risk management cognition and social capital on risk management strategies adopted by farmer is significant.(5) From the perspective of risk management, this paper builds a farmer as the main body of agricultural natural disaster risk management system, and according to integrated regression results, puts forward to countermeasure proposal promoting farmer's resilience of natural disaster from microcosmic and macroscopical two levels.
从总体上看,当前的中国农业自然灾害风险管理制度和研究更多的强调以政府为主体,以救助和补偿为主要策略,而农户作为灾害风险的承担者和风险处理策略的执行者处于被动地位,较少关注农户的抗风险行为,且现有农户风险策略的研究单一性比较强,不具有系统性。本文从农户这一微观层次出发,从风险管理理论角度,建立起以农户为主的自然灾害风险管理体系,并依据黑龙江省统计数据和农户实地调研数据,采用多种实证分析方法,研究农户对风险管理策略的响应行为以及这些风险管理措施的有效性,并构建logistic模型,对农户采用不同风险管理策略的影响因素进行分析。本文共八章,分为五个部分。主要研究内容及结论如下：
第一部分,绪论。阐述了本研究背景及目的和意义,系统的回顾及总结了农业自然灾害和农户行为的国内外研究成果,并进行述评,指明本文研究的出发点,阐述了论文的研究思路和框架,说明本文所用的主要研究方法及分析技术路线,并交代了本研究的数据资料及来源。
第二部分,黑龙江省农业自然灾害及其趋势分析。通过时间序列数据分析黑龙江省农业自然灾害现状、特征以及未来变化趋势,利用环比增长率对自然灾害和粮食总产之间的相关性进行分析,并对粮食生产以及农户收入的影响进行估算。
第三部分,农业自然灾害风险管理的理论分析框架。阐述了农业自然灾害风险管理的理论基础；对农业自然灾害风险以及自然灾害风险管理的内涵进行界定；从风险管理理论视角,提出农业自然灾害风险管理的内容,构建农户自然灾害风险处理策略体系,即：风险预防策略、风险转移策略、风险分散策略、风险缓解策略四个方面,并进一步界定每一策略的研究对象。
第四部分,包括第4、第5、第6和第7章。这是本文的核心部分。依据农户调研数据,分别以玉米优良品种、节水灌溉技术、多样化种植行为和农业保险为研究对象,对自然灾害风险预防策略、缓解策略、分散策略和转移策略的农户响应行为和影响因素进行分析。
第五部分,提升农户抗灾能力的对策建议。根据上述四个模型结果得出综合结论,并根据结论,从微观层面和宏观层面提出促进自然灾害风险管理策略能够有效实施,从而提升农户抗灾能力的对策建议。
研究结论如下：(1)由于黑龙江省自然灾害呈加重态势,而风险管理策略的农户采用情况并不理想,在仍不改变当前状态的条件下,黑龙江省自然灾害损失风险进一步加大。(2)农户灾害风险管理策略的选择行为是理性的,这种理性选择是由农户自身的资源禀赋、风险认知和自然环境条件决定的。但由于市场的不完全性以及信息不对称,从社会福利角度看,这样的理性行为是次优的经济决策,需要政府或第三方力量来矫正农户行为偏差。(3)农户信息获取途径有限且质量不高,主要渠道是传统的电视广播等大众媒体和人际传播,农业科技推广部门、保险公司等这些风险管理技术的提供者没有成为信息服务主体。(4)农户家庭经营特征比个性特征对风险管理策略行为的影响更显著,政府政策对非工程性策略影响不显著,农户风险认知、风险管理认知程度以及社会资本也对农户风险管理策略采用行为有影响。(5)从风险管理角度构建了以农户为主体的农业自然灾害风险管理体系,并根据综合回归结果从微观和宏观两个层面提出提升农户抗灾能力的对策建议。
Under the background of global climate and environment changes, agricultural natural disasters in Heilongjiang province, even in China, show the tendency that frequency of disaster quickens, the scope of disaster widens, and the degree of disaster becomes more serious, and economic loss becomes worse. Among all provinces in China, disasters in Heilongjiang province are the worst, and crops' damage area is the largest among all main grain-producing areas. At the same time, Heilongjiang province is an important grain-producing area and commodity grain base. As a result, increasing risk on agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang province threatens seriously to domestic grain market supply and guaranteeing national grain securities. Under such circumstance, how to get the best security guarantee on agricultural economy by risk management and at the least cost in order to maintain sustainable development on agricultural economy becomes an urgent task for Heilongjiang province and China.
Generally speaking, current risk management system and research on agricultural natural disaster in China emphasize more on government as the main body, and take help and compensation as main strategies. While farmers, the undertakers of disaster risk and the performers of risk management strategies, are in passive positions. Current research on farmers' risk strategies is simplex and not systematic, and pays less attention to farmers' risk resistance behavior. The dissertation, on the basis of farmers as the micro-layer, from the angel of risk management theories, sets up natural disaster risk management system taking farmers as the main body. According to statistics data in Heilongjiang Province and farmers' field research data, using all kinds of positive analysis methods, the dissertation studies farmers' respondent behavior on risk management strategies and the effectiveness of these strategies, builds logistic model, and analyzes influence factors of risk management strategies taken by farmers. The dissertation consists of8chapters and divides into five parts. The main content and conclusion is as follows:
The first part is introduction. It describes the background, aim and significance of the research, and systematically reviews and summarizes research results at home and abroad on agricultural natural disaster and farmers' behavior, and then comments accordingly. It figures out the paper's beginning point and explains the research thought and framework. It explains the paper's main research methods and analysis technology methods, and also shows the data and its source.
The second part analyzes agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang and its tendency. Through time series data analysis on current situation, characteristics and future change tendency of agricultural natural disaster in Heilongjiang, the relevance between natural disaster and grain gross product is analyzed by cycle growth of rate, the influence on grain product and farmers'income is estimated.
The third part is theoretical analysis framework on agricultural natural disaster risk management. It explains theoretical foundation of agricultural natural disaster risk management; It defines the connotation of agricultural natural disaster risk and agricultural natural disaster risk management; From theoretical angel of risk management, it suggests the content of agricultural natural disaster risk management and builds agricultural natural disaster risk management strategy systems, including four aspects, namely:risk-prevention strategy, risk transfer strategy, risk diversification strategy and risk relief strategy, and further defines the research object of each strategy.
The forth part includes the forth, fifth, sixth and seventh chapters, which is the core part of the dissertation. According to farmers' investigation data, natural disaster risk protection strategy, risk transfer strategy, risk diversification strategy and risk relief strategy are analyzed by taking good strains of corn seeds, water saving irrigation technology, multiple planting ways and agriculture insurance as research objects.
The fifth part is the Countermeasures on Improving Farmer's Ability of Fighting Natural Disasters. According to the four models above, comprehensive conclusions are made. On the basis of the conclusion, policy and suggestions which can prompt natural disaster risk management strategies to carry out effectively are proposed from microcosmic and macroscopical two levels.
The conclusion is as follow:(1) Due to the natural disaster in Heilongjiang province has increased trend, and farmers' adoption of risk management strategies is not ideal. So under the current conditions that the state still do not change, the loss of natural disasters risk in Heilongjiang province further increase.(2) Farmer's choosing behavior of disaster risk management strategy is rational,and the rational choice is determine with resource endowment of farmer oneself, risk perception and the natural environment conditions. But because the market is incomplete and asymmetric information, from a social welfare perspective, this rational behavior is suboptimal economic decision-making, and need government or third party to correct the farmer behavior deviation.(3) Farmers' access to information is limited and the quality is not high, the main channel is the traditional television and other mass media and interpersonal communication, and the risk management technology provider, promotion of agricultural science and Technology Department, the insurance companies, did not become the main information service subject.(4) Farmer's family manages characteristic is more significant than the personality characteristics on risk management strategy behavior. Government policy on non-engineering strategy is not significantly affected. Farmers's risk perception, risk management cognition and social capital on risk management strategies adopted by farmer is significant.(5) From the perspective of risk management, this paper builds a farmer as the main body of agricultural natural disaster risk management system, and according to integrated regression results, puts forward to countermeasure proposal promoting farmer's resilience of natural disaster from microcosmic and macroscopical two levels.
引文
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