产能和产能利用率新测算方法及其应用研究
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摘要
1978年以来,伴随着改革开放的逐步深入,我国经济不仅快速增长,而且遭遇了三次大规模产能过剩——1998-2001年期间我国出现了第一次大规模产能过剩,2003-2006年期间我国再次出现了大规模产能过剩,2009年开始我国又爆发了第三次大规模产能过剩。并且,我国的三次大规模产能过剩,后一次都比前一次更加严重、更加恶化。正是在这样的背景下,2008年以来,产能过剩成为我国经济理论界和宏观经济管理层共同关注的重大经济管理问题之一。
虽然国内关于产能过剩的研究涉及工业经济和整个国民经济两个层面,但本文界定的产能过剩仅指工业产能过剩。对工业产能和产能利用率问题的研讨,国内外学者主要存在三个视角：企业内部视角、企业(行业、地区)比较视角和宏观经济管理视角。本文将对我国产能过剩的研究限制在宏观经济管理视角。基于宏观经济管理视角,人们关注工业产能利用的水平、是否存在工业产能过剩及其过剩的程度、产能过剩的产生原因及其调控方式,以及如何判断和监测工业产能过剩的情况。其中,产能和产能利用率测算方法以及产能过剩监测预警体系是我国产能过剩研究中的两大重点和难点问题。本文选择产能和产能利用率测算方法作为中心论题。
本文详细辨析产能过剩研究中的三个基本概念——产能、产能利用率和产能过剩,并把产能概念概括为三大类：技术产能、经济产能和经验产能。相应地,产能和产能利用率测算方法分为三类：基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法、基于经济产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法以及基于经验产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法。进而,本文的中心论题被进一步明确为基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法。
本文主要包括四部分内容。
1.本文梳理国内外有关产能过剩研究的相关文献,进行文献综述,并辨析和界定产能、产能利用率和产能过剩这三个产能过剩研究中的基本概念。
(1)本文把产能概念归纳为三大类：技术产能、经济产能和经验产能。本文把产能界定为一个技术产能概念,即在给定生产系统的每一个工厂能保持一个切合实际的工作安排框架内,考虑到正常的停机时间,所投入的资本和劳动力(或者所投入的资本)得到充分利用条件下,该生产系统可能达到的最大产出水平。
(2)遵循国内外学者对产能利用率概念的界定,产能利用率被定义为实际产出与产能之比。当然,实际产出和产能一般使用增加值来反映。
(3)梳理国内外的产能过剩概念,提出架构统一的产能过剩概念体系的四个原则,并理顺和形成统一的产能过剩概念体系,进而论述统一的产能过剩概念体系的优点。明确本文界定的产能过剩是指产能相对于生产量的过剩,即产能利用率小于1就是出现了产能过剩。
2.本文介绍若干种国内外有关产能和产能利用率的测算方法,并且,在对这些测算方法进行分析、比较和评价的基础上,提出产能和产能利用率的一个新测算方法,进而应用此新测算方法得到1992-2011年的我国制造业28个行业的产能利用率的测算数据。
(1)测算方法的分类与比较。按照各种测算方法所依据的数据的来源和特征的不同,本文把产能和产能利用率的测算方法分为两大类：基于宏观经济统计数据的测算方法与基于微观企业调查结果的测算方法。前者包括技术产能和经济产能两个产能概念,后者含有经验产能概念。前者的数据基础是经济统计数据,而后者的数据基础是通过对企业进行抽样调查后汇总的结果。
从基本思想、误差可控性、结果稳定性和概念可操作性等四个方面,对基于宏观经济统计数据的测算方法与基于微观企业调查结果的测算方法进行了比较和评价。从误差可控性、结果稳定性和概念可操作性等三个方面,对基于技术产能概念的测算方法与基于经济产能概念的测算方法进行了比较和评价。
(2)基于技术产能概念的几种具体测算方法。由于本文界定的产能概念是一个技术产能概念，并且我国宏观经济管理层特别关注生产资料投入所形成的生产能力、尤其重视固定资产投资所形成的生产能力,因此,本文介绍基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率的几种具体测算方法,包括Artus方法、过峰趋势技术、“产出/资本”比率方法、峰到峰方法、沈利生(1999)方法、杨光、马晓莹(2010)方法、龚刚、杨琳(2002)方法等。进一步,从假设的合理性、所使用的数据的特征(完全直接利用统计数据还是不完全直接利用统计数据)、对技术产能定义的运用形式等三个方面对基于技术产能概念的上述几种具体测算方法进行了比较,结论有二：
①不同的具体测算方法各有其优缺点,哪种具体测算方法的假设较为符合某时期、某区域、某产业的现实情况,该种具体的测算方法就更适用于测算此时期、此区域、此产业的产能和产能利用率的数据。
②从形式上可以把基于技术产能的产能和产能利用率的测算方法分为三类：类型Ⅰ测算方法是应用实际产出、资本存量和劳动力这三个指标的数据来测算产能和产能利用率。类型Ⅱ测算方法是应用实际产出、资本存量这两个指标的数据(不使用劳动力的数据)来测算产能和产能利用率。类型Ⅲ测算方法是仅仅应用实际产出这一个指标的数据(不使用资本存量和劳动力的数据)来测算产能和产能利用率。而且,在对比这三种类型测算方法的优缺点之后,确定本文立足于类型Ⅲ测算方法的思想和原理来探讨产能和产能利用率的新测算方法。
(3)提出一种新测算方法。在多角度对测算方法进行分析、比较和评价的基础上,提出产能和产能利用率的一个新测算方法,并且,详细论证新测算方法所依据的假设的合理性,这是新测算方法具备合理性的论据之一；进而应用此新测算方法计算得到1992-2011年的我国制造业28个行业的产能利用率的测算数据,而且,论证了此测算数据的合理性(测算数据的合理性论证是新测算方法具备合理性的论据之二),并得出两点认识：
①不能由产能过剩的概念或定义推出：如果产能利用率在一定时期内处于上升趋势,就判断在这段时期没有出现产能过剩；如果产能利用率在一定时期内处于下降趋势,就判断在这段时期出现了产能过剩。
②产能过剩是指产能利用率过低,低到其造成的负面影响超过正面效用,对企业生产、经济运行、乃至居民生活产生了全局性负面影响的情形。按照这个定义,过剩生产能力(即产能与实际产出之差)指标应该和产能利用率指标一起,用于判断是否出现了产能过剩。如果在一段时期内,不仅产能利用率持续“低迷”,而且过剩生产能力快速扩张,那么,过剩生产能力的迅速扩大肯定容易造成产能过剩。
3.本文通过建立计量经济模型,分析产能利用水平与通货膨胀之间的相互影响关系,以及固定资产投资对产能利用水平的影响作用；并且,立足于经济增长驱动模式角度分析我国产能过剩的深层次原因。结论是：固定资产投资的长期快速增长只是我国出现产能过剩的表面上的原因,深层次原因在于我国改革开放以来驱动国内生产总值增长的理论模式是过分依赖资本形成总额(固定资产投资)型经济增长驱动模式。
4.本文提出有关我国产能过剩治理的对策建议,并指出需要进一步研究的问题。
Since1978, along with the gradual deepening of reform and opening up, China's economy is not only fast growth, but also suffered three wide-ranging excess capacity------in the period1998-2001, China experienced the first wide-ranging excess capacity; in the period2003-2006, China experienced again wide-ranging excess capacity; our country was attacked by third wide-ranging excess capacity since2009. In China's three wide-ranging excess capacity, the latter is more serious than previous. It is in this context, excess capacity become one of the significant economic and management issues in China's economic theory sector and macro management since2008.
Although domestic study about excess capacity involves two levels both the industrial economy and the national economy, but this paper shall limit itself to industrial excess capacity. In the discussion of the problem about industrial capacity and capacity utilization rate, there are three perspectives:enterprise perspective, enterprises (industries, regions) comparative perspective and macroeconomic management perspective. This paper shall limit itself to macroeconomic management perspective. Based on macroeconomic management perspective, people focus on industrial capacity utilization level, existence of industrial excess capacity and degree of excess capacity, causes and governance measures of excess capacity, and how to determine and monitor industrial excess capacity. Capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods and monitoring warning system for domestic excess capacity are two difficult problems in the study of China's excess capacity. Capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods is the paper's central topic.
This paper discusses in detail three basic concepts in the study of excess capacity------capacity, capacity utilization rate, and excess capacity. Capacity concept is summarized as three categories:technical capacity, economic capacity and experiential capacity. Accordingly, capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods is summarized as three categories:estimation methods based on technical capacity concept, estimation methods based on economic capacity concept, and estimation methods based on experiential capacity concept. Furthermore, the central thesis of this paper is further defined the capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods based on technical capacity concept.
This paper consists of four parts.
1. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature, and discriminates and defines three basic concepts in the study of excess capacity------capacity, capacity utilization rate, and excess capacity.
(1) In this paper, capacity concept is summarized as three categories:technical capacity, economic capacity and experiential capacity. The capacity in this paper is defined as a technical capacity concept, that is, in the working arrangements framework within each enterprise in the production system to maintain appropriate practice, taking into account the normal downtime and assuming full usefulness of invested capital and labor (or invested capital), the production system may reach a maximum output level.
(2) Following the domestic and foreign scholars'definition of capacity utilization rate, capacity utilization rate is defined as the ratio of the actual output to capacity. Of course, the actual output and capacity make use of the value-added indicator.
(3) After listing systematically several definitions of excess capacity, the paper proposes the four principles for structuring unified conceptual system of excess capacity and form the unified excess capacity concept system, and, discourses on the advantages of the unified conceptual system of excess capacity. The definition of excess capacity in the paper is excess of capacity with respect to the production amount, that is, it means excess capacity if capacity utilization rate is less than1.
2. The paper introduces several domestic and foreign capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods; and, based on analysis, comparation and evaluation of these estimation methods, proposes a new estimation method; and then capacity utilization rate of China's28manufacturing industries in1992-2011is estimated by the new method.
(1) This paper assorts estimation methods, and compares with various estimation methods. Based on different data sources and characteristics, capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods are divided into two main categories:estimation methods based on macroeconomic statistical data and estimation methods based on enterprises survey results. The former includes both technical capacity concept and economic capacity concept, the latter includes only experiential capacity concept. The former is to apply economy statistical data, while the latter's data base is the summary data of enterprises survey results.
From four aspects------basic thought, error controllability, result stability and concept operability, the paper compares and evaluates both estimation methods based on macroeconomic statistical data and estimation methods based on enterprises survey results. From three aspects------error controllability, result stability and concept operability, this paper compares and evaluates both estimation methods based on technical capacity concept and estimation methods based on economic capacity concept.
(2) This paper summaries specific estimation methods based on technical capacity concept. Since the paper's definition of capacity is technical capacity concept, and our macroeconomic management pays close attention to production capacity by production inputs (especially production inputs by investment in fixed assets), the paper summaries specific estimation methods based on technical capacity concept. These estimation methods have Artus methods, trend through peaks technique,"output/capital" ratio method, peak-to-peak method, Shen-Lisheng (1999) method, Yang-Guang and Ma-Xiaoying (2010) method, Gong-Gang and Yang-Lin (2002) method. Further, from three aspects-----reasonableness of the assumptions, characteristics of useful data (direct use of statistical data or indirect use of statistical data) and use form of technical capacity definition, the paper compares above specific estimation methods based on technical capacity concept. The main conclusions are as follows:
①Different specific estimation method has its own advantages and disadvantages; which specific estimation method's assumptions conform to a period (a region, an industry) current situation, the specific estimation method is even more applicable to estimate this period (this area, this industry) capacity utilization rate data.
②Formally, estimation methods based on technical capacity concept is divided into three categories. Category Ⅰ estimation method uses actual output sequence, capital stock sequence and labor sequence for estimating capacity utilization rate. Category Ⅱ estimation method uses actual output sequence and capital stock sequence (don't use labor sequence) for estimating capacity utilization rate. Category Ⅲ estimation method uses actual output sequence (don't use capital stock sequence and labor sequence) for estimating capacity utilization rate. And, after comparing advantages and disadvantages of these three categories estimation methods, it is determined that the paper will explore a new specific estimation method based on the category Ⅲ estimation method.
(3) This paper puts forward a new specific estimation method. Based on analyzing, comparing and evaluating with multi-angle estimation methods, the paper puts forward a new specific estimation method, and particularly expounds rationality of assumptions of the new estimation method. The rationality of assumptions of the new estimation method is one of argument that the new estimation method is reasonable. The capacity utilization rate of China's28manufacturing industries in1992-2011is estimated by the new specific estimation method. Then, rationality of estimation data is repeatedly demonstrated (the rationality of estimation data of the new estimation method is another one of argument that the new estimation method is reasonable). The main conclusions are as follows:
①The following results can not be introduced by the concept of excess capacity. If the capacity utilization rate is on an upward trend in a certain period of time, it is determined that does not appear excess capacity during this period; if the capacity utilization rate is on an downward trend in a certain period of time, it is determined that appears excess capacity during this period.
②Excess capacity is a situation that the capacity utilization rate is too low, and enterprise production, economic operation and the lives of the people receive more negative impact. In accordance with this definition, as capacity utilization rate, superfluous production capacity (that is, capacity minus actual output) should be used to determine whether there has been excess capacity. In a period of time, for one industry, if its capacity utilization rate is at a low ebb, and, its superfluous production capacity rapidly expands, it is likely to occur excess capacity.
3. This paper analyzes the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation and investment in fixed assets's influence to capacity utilization by econometric model; furthermore, investigates the causes of China's excess capacity based on the economic growth drives mode. The analysis conclusion is that the rapid growth of investment in fixed assets is external reasons of China's excess capacity, and internal reasons is its excessive reliance on gross capital formation (investment in fixed assets) economic growth drives mode since China's reform and opening up.
4. This paper puts forward proposal to govern China's excess capacity, and points out the issues that require to further study.
虽然国内关于产能过剩的研究涉及工业经济和整个国民经济两个层面,但本文界定的产能过剩仅指工业产能过剩。对工业产能和产能利用率问题的研讨,国内外学者主要存在三个视角：企业内部视角、企业(行业、地区)比较视角和宏观经济管理视角。本文将对我国产能过剩的研究限制在宏观经济管理视角。基于宏观经济管理视角,人们关注工业产能利用的水平、是否存在工业产能过剩及其过剩的程度、产能过剩的产生原因及其调控方式,以及如何判断和监测工业产能过剩的情况。其中,产能和产能利用率测算方法以及产能过剩监测预警体系是我国产能过剩研究中的两大重点和难点问题。本文选择产能和产能利用率测算方法作为中心论题。
本文详细辨析产能过剩研究中的三个基本概念——产能、产能利用率和产能过剩,并把产能概念概括为三大类：技术产能、经济产能和经验产能。相应地,产能和产能利用率测算方法分为三类：基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法、基于经济产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法以及基于经验产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法。进而,本文的中心论题被进一步明确为基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率测算方法。
本文主要包括四部分内容。
1.本文梳理国内外有关产能过剩研究的相关文献,进行文献综述,并辨析和界定产能、产能利用率和产能过剩这三个产能过剩研究中的基本概念。
(1)本文把产能概念归纳为三大类：技术产能、经济产能和经验产能。本文把产能界定为一个技术产能概念,即在给定生产系统的每一个工厂能保持一个切合实际的工作安排框架内,考虑到正常的停机时间,所投入的资本和劳动力(或者所投入的资本)得到充分利用条件下,该生产系统可能达到的最大产出水平。
(2)遵循国内外学者对产能利用率概念的界定,产能利用率被定义为实际产出与产能之比。当然,实际产出和产能一般使用增加值来反映。
(3)梳理国内外的产能过剩概念,提出架构统一的产能过剩概念体系的四个原则,并理顺和形成统一的产能过剩概念体系,进而论述统一的产能过剩概念体系的优点。明确本文界定的产能过剩是指产能相对于生产量的过剩,即产能利用率小于1就是出现了产能过剩。
2.本文介绍若干种国内外有关产能和产能利用率的测算方法,并且,在对这些测算方法进行分析、比较和评价的基础上,提出产能和产能利用率的一个新测算方法,进而应用此新测算方法得到1992-2011年的我国制造业28个行业的产能利用率的测算数据。
(1)测算方法的分类与比较。按照各种测算方法所依据的数据的来源和特征的不同,本文把产能和产能利用率的测算方法分为两大类：基于宏观经济统计数据的测算方法与基于微观企业调查结果的测算方法。前者包括技术产能和经济产能两个产能概念,后者含有经验产能概念。前者的数据基础是经济统计数据,而后者的数据基础是通过对企业进行抽样调查后汇总的结果。
从基本思想、误差可控性、结果稳定性和概念可操作性等四个方面,对基于宏观经济统计数据的测算方法与基于微观企业调查结果的测算方法进行了比较和评价。从误差可控性、结果稳定性和概念可操作性等三个方面,对基于技术产能概念的测算方法与基于经济产能概念的测算方法进行了比较和评价。
(2)基于技术产能概念的几种具体测算方法。由于本文界定的产能概念是一个技术产能概念，并且我国宏观经济管理层特别关注生产资料投入所形成的生产能力、尤其重视固定资产投资所形成的生产能力,因此,本文介绍基于技术产能概念的产能和产能利用率的几种具体测算方法,包括Artus方法、过峰趋势技术、“产出/资本”比率方法、峰到峰方法、沈利生(1999)方法、杨光、马晓莹(2010)方法、龚刚、杨琳(2002)方法等。进一步,从假设的合理性、所使用的数据的特征(完全直接利用统计数据还是不完全直接利用统计数据)、对技术产能定义的运用形式等三个方面对基于技术产能概念的上述几种具体测算方法进行了比较,结论有二：
①不同的具体测算方法各有其优缺点,哪种具体测算方法的假设较为符合某时期、某区域、某产业的现实情况,该种具体的测算方法就更适用于测算此时期、此区域、此产业的产能和产能利用率的数据。
②从形式上可以把基于技术产能的产能和产能利用率的测算方法分为三类：类型Ⅰ测算方法是应用实际产出、资本存量和劳动力这三个指标的数据来测算产能和产能利用率。类型Ⅱ测算方法是应用实际产出、资本存量这两个指标的数据(不使用劳动力的数据)来测算产能和产能利用率。类型Ⅲ测算方法是仅仅应用实际产出这一个指标的数据(不使用资本存量和劳动力的数据)来测算产能和产能利用率。而且,在对比这三种类型测算方法的优缺点之后,确定本文立足于类型Ⅲ测算方法的思想和原理来探讨产能和产能利用率的新测算方法。
(3)提出一种新测算方法。在多角度对测算方法进行分析、比较和评价的基础上,提出产能和产能利用率的一个新测算方法,并且,详细论证新测算方法所依据的假设的合理性,这是新测算方法具备合理性的论据之一；进而应用此新测算方法计算得到1992-2011年的我国制造业28个行业的产能利用率的测算数据,而且,论证了此测算数据的合理性(测算数据的合理性论证是新测算方法具备合理性的论据之二),并得出两点认识：
①不能由产能过剩的概念或定义推出：如果产能利用率在一定时期内处于上升趋势,就判断在这段时期没有出现产能过剩；如果产能利用率在一定时期内处于下降趋势,就判断在这段时期出现了产能过剩。
②产能过剩是指产能利用率过低,低到其造成的负面影响超过正面效用,对企业生产、经济运行、乃至居民生活产生了全局性负面影响的情形。按照这个定义,过剩生产能力(即产能与实际产出之差)指标应该和产能利用率指标一起,用于判断是否出现了产能过剩。如果在一段时期内,不仅产能利用率持续“低迷”,而且过剩生产能力快速扩张,那么,过剩生产能力的迅速扩大肯定容易造成产能过剩。
3.本文通过建立计量经济模型,分析产能利用水平与通货膨胀之间的相互影响关系,以及固定资产投资对产能利用水平的影响作用；并且,立足于经济增长驱动模式角度分析我国产能过剩的深层次原因。结论是：固定资产投资的长期快速增长只是我国出现产能过剩的表面上的原因,深层次原因在于我国改革开放以来驱动国内生产总值增长的理论模式是过分依赖资本形成总额(固定资产投资)型经济增长驱动模式。
4.本文提出有关我国产能过剩治理的对策建议,并指出需要进一步研究的问题。
Since1978, along with the gradual deepening of reform and opening up, China's economy is not only fast growth, but also suffered three wide-ranging excess capacity------in the period1998-2001, China experienced the first wide-ranging excess capacity; in the period2003-2006, China experienced again wide-ranging excess capacity; our country was attacked by third wide-ranging excess capacity since2009. In China's three wide-ranging excess capacity, the latter is more serious than previous. It is in this context, excess capacity become one of the significant economic and management issues in China's economic theory sector and macro management since2008.
Although domestic study about excess capacity involves two levels both the industrial economy and the national economy, but this paper shall limit itself to industrial excess capacity. In the discussion of the problem about industrial capacity and capacity utilization rate, there are three perspectives:enterprise perspective, enterprises (industries, regions) comparative perspective and macroeconomic management perspective. This paper shall limit itself to macroeconomic management perspective. Based on macroeconomic management perspective, people focus on industrial capacity utilization level, existence of industrial excess capacity and degree of excess capacity, causes and governance measures of excess capacity, and how to determine and monitor industrial excess capacity. Capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods and monitoring warning system for domestic excess capacity are two difficult problems in the study of China's excess capacity. Capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods is the paper's central topic.
This paper discusses in detail three basic concepts in the study of excess capacity------capacity, capacity utilization rate, and excess capacity. Capacity concept is summarized as three categories:technical capacity, economic capacity and experiential capacity. Accordingly, capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods is summarized as three categories:estimation methods based on technical capacity concept, estimation methods based on economic capacity concept, and estimation methods based on experiential capacity concept. Furthermore, the central thesis of this paper is further defined the capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods based on technical capacity concept.
This paper consists of four parts.
1. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature, and discriminates and defines three basic concepts in the study of excess capacity------capacity, capacity utilization rate, and excess capacity.
(1) In this paper, capacity concept is summarized as three categories:technical capacity, economic capacity and experiential capacity. The capacity in this paper is defined as a technical capacity concept, that is, in the working arrangements framework within each enterprise in the production system to maintain appropriate practice, taking into account the normal downtime and assuming full usefulness of invested capital and labor (or invested capital), the production system may reach a maximum output level.
(2) Following the domestic and foreign scholars'definition of capacity utilization rate, capacity utilization rate is defined as the ratio of the actual output to capacity. Of course, the actual output and capacity make use of the value-added indicator.
(3) After listing systematically several definitions of excess capacity, the paper proposes the four principles for structuring unified conceptual system of excess capacity and form the unified excess capacity concept system, and, discourses on the advantages of the unified conceptual system of excess capacity. The definition of excess capacity in the paper is excess of capacity with respect to the production amount, that is, it means excess capacity if capacity utilization rate is less than1.
2. The paper introduces several domestic and foreign capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods; and, based on analysis, comparation and evaluation of these estimation methods, proposes a new estimation method; and then capacity utilization rate of China's28manufacturing industries in1992-2011is estimated by the new method.
(1) This paper assorts estimation methods, and compares with various estimation methods. Based on different data sources and characteristics, capacity and capacity utilization rate estimation methods are divided into two main categories:estimation methods based on macroeconomic statistical data and estimation methods based on enterprises survey results. The former includes both technical capacity concept and economic capacity concept, the latter includes only experiential capacity concept. The former is to apply economy statistical data, while the latter's data base is the summary data of enterprises survey results.
From four aspects------basic thought, error controllability, result stability and concept operability, the paper compares and evaluates both estimation methods based on macroeconomic statistical data and estimation methods based on enterprises survey results. From three aspects------error controllability, result stability and concept operability, this paper compares and evaluates both estimation methods based on technical capacity concept and estimation methods based on economic capacity concept.
(2) This paper summaries specific estimation methods based on technical capacity concept. Since the paper's definition of capacity is technical capacity concept, and our macroeconomic management pays close attention to production capacity by production inputs (especially production inputs by investment in fixed assets), the paper summaries specific estimation methods based on technical capacity concept. These estimation methods have Artus methods, trend through peaks technique,"output/capital" ratio method, peak-to-peak method, Shen-Lisheng (1999) method, Yang-Guang and Ma-Xiaoying (2010) method, Gong-Gang and Yang-Lin (2002) method. Further, from three aspects-----reasonableness of the assumptions, characteristics of useful data (direct use of statistical data or indirect use of statistical data) and use form of technical capacity definition, the paper compares above specific estimation methods based on technical capacity concept. The main conclusions are as follows:
①Different specific estimation method has its own advantages and disadvantages; which specific estimation method's assumptions conform to a period (a region, an industry) current situation, the specific estimation method is even more applicable to estimate this period (this area, this industry) capacity utilization rate data.
②Formally, estimation methods based on technical capacity concept is divided into three categories. Category Ⅰ estimation method uses actual output sequence, capital stock sequence and labor sequence for estimating capacity utilization rate. Category Ⅱ estimation method uses actual output sequence and capital stock sequence (don't use labor sequence) for estimating capacity utilization rate. Category Ⅲ estimation method uses actual output sequence (don't use capital stock sequence and labor sequence) for estimating capacity utilization rate. And, after comparing advantages and disadvantages of these three categories estimation methods, it is determined that the paper will explore a new specific estimation method based on the category Ⅲ estimation method.
(3) This paper puts forward a new specific estimation method. Based on analyzing, comparing and evaluating with multi-angle estimation methods, the paper puts forward a new specific estimation method, and particularly expounds rationality of assumptions of the new estimation method. The rationality of assumptions of the new estimation method is one of argument that the new estimation method is reasonable. The capacity utilization rate of China's28manufacturing industries in1992-2011is estimated by the new specific estimation method. Then, rationality of estimation data is repeatedly demonstrated (the rationality of estimation data of the new estimation method is another one of argument that the new estimation method is reasonable). The main conclusions are as follows:
①The following results can not be introduced by the concept of excess capacity. If the capacity utilization rate is on an upward trend in a certain period of time, it is determined that does not appear excess capacity during this period; if the capacity utilization rate is on an downward trend in a certain period of time, it is determined that appears excess capacity during this period.
②Excess capacity is a situation that the capacity utilization rate is too low, and enterprise production, economic operation and the lives of the people receive more negative impact. In accordance with this definition, as capacity utilization rate, superfluous production capacity (that is, capacity minus actual output) should be used to determine whether there has been excess capacity. In a period of time, for one industry, if its capacity utilization rate is at a low ebb, and, its superfluous production capacity rapidly expands, it is likely to occur excess capacity.
3. This paper analyzes the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation and investment in fixed assets's influence to capacity utilization by econometric model; furthermore, investigates the causes of China's excess capacity based on the economic growth drives mode. The analysis conclusion is that the rapid growth of investment in fixed assets is external reasons of China's excess capacity, and internal reasons is its excessive reliance on gross capital formation (investment in fixed assets) economic growth drives mode since China's reform and opening up.
4. This paper puts forward proposal to govern China's excess capacity, and points out the issues that require to further study.
引文
① 这里的界定是：引起我国理论界关注的产能过剩包括产能过剩现象和产能过剩问题。产能过剩现象是指这样一种情况：某个行业或产品的产能过剩仅对个别地区经济运行造成了较为明显的负面影响。而产能过剩问题所指的情况是：一个或多个行业的产能过剩对全国宏观经济运行产生了明显的较大的负面影响。也就是说,产能过剩现象指的是局部状况,而产能过剩问题则是指全局情况。国内绝大多数研究文献讨论的是全局性的产能过剩,而国家宏观经济管理部门出台的文件也是关于全局性产能过剩治理的内容,因此,本文的研究着重于全局性产能过剩。
② 2012年9月7日的检索结果。
① 全社会固定资产投资的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”；全社会固定资产投资价格指数(上年=100)的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”。
② 国内生产总值指数(可比价,上年=100)的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”。
【 国内生产总值指数(可比价,上年=100)的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”。
① 《国家发展改革委把解决部分行业产能过剩问题作为产业结构调整的突破口》,载《中国钢铁业》,2005年第12期,p10.
① Prescott(1986)认为,Fay,Medoff向1000多位工厂经理进行调查,但收到有效问卷仅有168份,而更重要的是问卷的内容存在问题。
① 从1977年开始,美联储用于测算产能和产能利用率的数据库,除了先前使应的McGraw-Hill的产能利用率调查等数据库之外,增加了《工厂生产能力调查(SPC)》；但从1990年开始,仅使用《工厂生产能力调查(SPC)》数据库。
① 在《数量经济技术经济研究》1999年第12期的《我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计》一文中,沈利生测算了我国整个国民经济的产能利用率。虽然该文测算的是整个国民经济的产能利用率,但其测算方法还是可以应用于测算工业(或工业行业)产能利用率。
② “单要素产能”和“双(或多)要素产能”的提法由本文依据多篇文献加以概括后提出。
① 沈利生在发表于《数量经济技术经济研究》1999年第12期上的《我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计》一文中,测算了我国整体国民经济的生产能力(即产能)利用率,实际产出使用实际GDP指标,产能使用潜在GDP指标；我们知道,潜在GDP指标表示整体国民经济的潜在产出水平,既然用实际产出除以潜在产出来计算整体国民经济的产能利用率,而实际产出与潜在产出之间的差距就是产出缺口,如此,整体国民经济的产能利用率与经济学中已有的“产出缺口”指标在本质上就是相同的。
① 这个变量被给了时间下标,以表明在整个估计期间它不是常数。例如,对于美国,Uft=4,t=1955～70；Uft=4.5,t>1970。(参见Artus,1977,p.18.)
① 参阅沈利生(1999)。
① 参见King,Plosser,Rebelo(1988)；Christiano,Eichenbaum(1992)；King,Rebelo(1999)。
① 龚刚、杨琳(2002)认为,目前,我国经济的情况就是资本存量决定产出,劳动力基本不能替代资本。
① 沃顿工商学院是对工业及其行业产能利用进行分析评价的美国五大机构之一,其过峰趋势技术是工业及其行业产能衡量方法的一个较为现代的分析工具。美国的对工业及其行业产能利用进行分析评价的五大机构分别是美国联邦储备委员会、沃顿工商学院、McGraw-Hill经济学院、国家工业研究委员会和财富杂志。(郭树言、欧新黔,2008,p151.)
① 韩国高(2012)与熊思觅(2011)的测算结果均表明,饮料制造业和烟草制品业两个行业的2000年以后的产能利用率均较高。
① 有八个行业的年平均过剩生产能力,1992-2011年后期的数值为1992-2011年前期的三倍以下,具体结果如下：纺织业为2.70倍,纺织服装、鞋帽制造业为2.89倍,印刷业和记录媒介的复制行业为2.82倍,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业为1.66倍,化学原料及化学制品制造业为2.83倍,橡胶制造业为2.76倍,非金属矿物制品业2.63倍,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业为2.87倍。
② 韩国高(2011)测算结果也表明大部分行业的产能利用率呈现出与经济周期波动的同步性。
③ 这里尝试提出一个判断标准,是想说明把过剩生产能力与产能利用率两个指标相结合用于对产能过剩做出判断的可能的应用思路。有效的产能过剩的判断标准一定是从实践经验中提炼出来的,且紧扣和满足产能过剩的定义。
① 这十二个行业包括农副食品加工业,皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业,造纸及纸制品业,化学原料及化学制品制造业,医药制造业,橡胶制品业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,专用设备制造业,交通运输设备制造业,电气机械及器材制造业,仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业。分别给定序号为1-12。
② 参看高铁梅(2009,p350-354.)。
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② 2012年9月7日的检索结果。
① 全社会固定资产投资的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”；全社会固定资产投资价格指数(上年=100)的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”。
② 国内生产总值指数(可比价,上年=100)的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”。
【 国内生产总值指数(可比价,上年=100)的数据来自“中经网统计数据库”。
① 《国家发展改革委把解决部分行业产能过剩问题作为产业结构调整的突破口》,载《中国钢铁业》,2005年第12期,p10.
① Prescott(1986)认为,Fay,Medoff向1000多位工厂经理进行调查,但收到有效问卷仅有168份,而更重要的是问卷的内容存在问题。
① 从1977年开始,美联储用于测算产能和产能利用率的数据库,除了先前使应的McGraw-Hill的产能利用率调查等数据库之外,增加了《工厂生产能力调查(SPC)》；但从1990年开始,仅使用《工厂生产能力调查(SPC)》数据库。
① 在《数量经济技术经济研究》1999年第12期的《我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计》一文中,沈利生测算了我国整个国民经济的产能利用率。虽然该文测算的是整个国民经济的产能利用率,但其测算方法还是可以应用于测算工业(或工业行业)产能利用率。
② “单要素产能”和“双(或多)要素产能”的提法由本文依据多篇文献加以概括后提出。
① 沈利生在发表于《数量经济技术经济研究》1999年第12期上的《我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计》一文中,测算了我国整体国民经济的生产能力(即产能)利用率,实际产出使用实际GDP指标,产能使用潜在GDP指标；我们知道,潜在GDP指标表示整体国民经济的潜在产出水平,既然用实际产出除以潜在产出来计算整体国民经济的产能利用率,而实际产出与潜在产出之间的差距就是产出缺口,如此,整体国民经济的产能利用率与经济学中已有的“产出缺口”指标在本质上就是相同的。
① 这个变量被给了时间下标,以表明在整个估计期间它不是常数。例如,对于美国,Uft=4,t=1955～70；Uft=4.5,t>1970。(参见Artus,1977,p.18.)
① 参阅沈利生(1999)。
① 参见King,Plosser,Rebelo(1988)；Christiano,Eichenbaum(1992)；King,Rebelo(1999)。
① 龚刚、杨琳(2002)认为,目前,我国经济的情况就是资本存量决定产出,劳动力基本不能替代资本。
① 沃顿工商学院是对工业及其行业产能利用进行分析评价的美国五大机构之一,其过峰趋势技术是工业及其行业产能衡量方法的一个较为现代的分析工具。美国的对工业及其行业产能利用进行分析评价的五大机构分别是美国联邦储备委员会、沃顿工商学院、McGraw-Hill经济学院、国家工业研究委员会和财富杂志。(郭树言、欧新黔,2008,p151.)
① 韩国高(2012)与熊思觅(2011)的测算结果均表明,饮料制造业和烟草制品业两个行业的2000年以后的产能利用率均较高。
① 有八个行业的年平均过剩生产能力,1992-2011年后期的数值为1992-2011年前期的三倍以下,具体结果如下：纺织业为2.70倍,纺织服装、鞋帽制造业为2.89倍,印刷业和记录媒介的复制行业为2.82倍,石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业为1.66倍,化学原料及化学制品制造业为2.83倍,橡胶制造业为2.76倍,非金属矿物制品业2.63倍,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业为2.87倍。
② 韩国高(2011)测算结果也表明大部分行业的产能利用率呈现出与经济周期波动的同步性。
③ 这里尝试提出一个判断标准,是想说明把过剩生产能力与产能利用率两个指标相结合用于对产能过剩做出判断的可能的应用思路。有效的产能过剩的判断标准一定是从实践经验中提炼出来的,且紧扣和满足产能过剩的定义。
① 这十二个行业包括农副食品加工业,皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业,造纸及纸制品业,化学原料及化学制品制造业,医药制造业,橡胶制品业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,专用设备制造业,交通运输设备制造业,电气机械及器材制造业,仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业。分别给定序号为1-12。
② 参看高铁梅(2009,p350-354.)。
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