基于城乡统筹的我国投资配置研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济社会快速发展,人民生活水平有了显著提高。但与此同时,也产生了一些新的社会矛盾,而城乡差距的加大正是这些矛盾的重中之重。能否有效解决城乡间存在的问题,是能否实现全社会快速协调发展和全面小康的前提条件。只有进行适度、科学的城乡投资,才能尽快缩小城乡差距、实现城乡统筹发展。在此发展目标下,城镇和农村各需要多少投资、如何进行投资的优化配置以便发挥投资效益,如何创建投资所需的体制环境,创新投资管理,是当前和近期我国改革发展和实现全社会共同进步、全面小康的重大课题。
本文的研究对于国家和地方各级政府制定城乡投资战略、加强投资管理、提高投资效益,从而解决“三农”问题、建立社会主义新农村、缩小城乡差距、推进我国经济社会协调发展都具有十分重要的理论价值和实践指导意义。在绪论部分,通过对研究背景和国内外城乡统筹理论和投资配置研究现状的分析,阐明了本文研究的目的和重要意义,提出系统研究基于城乡统筹理论的投资配置问题的有效方法。在此基础上展开研究,内容主要包括:
(1)基于城乡统筹发展的投资配置理论分析。指出了城乡统筹提出的现实背景——国民经济的快速发展及城乡差距的不断加大,在此基础上深入分析了城乡统筹理论的内涵,提出了建立基于统筹发展的新型城乡关系。制定了我国城乡统筹发展的原则,根据我国国民经济发展的总体规划,确立了我国城乡统筹发展短期(2006～2010年)、中期(2010～2020年)和长期(2020～2050年)的战略目标。首次对基于城乡统筹的投资配置理论进行了研究。提出了在城乡统筹基础上投资配置应遵循“公平和效率并举”的原则,并发挥政府的作用,弥补市场在城乡资源配置中的缺陷。
(2)对我国2006～2020年经济发展和投资总体规模的预测。通过对投资和经济增长理论进行分析,明确二者间的互动关系;分析投资如何影响和拉动经济增长。结合国外一些国家的发展经验,与我国当前的投资情况进行比较分析,指出近年来我国投资效益不断降低的主要原因。分析适度投资规模与经济增长的关系;分级、分层次分析投资规模影响因素;利用钱纳里—赛尔昆模型及国际经验与我国投资规模进行比较,得出我国适度投资规模的范围。建立了投资率与经济增长率的关系模型,对我国2006～2020年的经济增长情况和投资率进行预测,并以此为依据对我国固定资产投资总体规模进行预测。
(3)研究如何将投资在我国城镇、农村之间进行合理配置。对我国1980～2005年间城乡投资规模、增长趋势、投资效益的比较研究;得出我国城乡投资的发展特征。建立了城镇、农村的CES生产函数,对城镇、农村的投入产出效益进行分析。建立了城镇、农村的投资——收入模型,得出等量的人均投资对城镇、农村居民收入的带动系数。深入研究了在城乡统筹的基础上进行投资配置的原则;创造性的提出以缩小城乡收入为目标函数、建立投资优化配置模型;利用matlab软件计算,得出适宜我国未来经济社会协调发展的城乡投资规模。
(4)研究基于城乡统筹的我国政府投资配置问题。深入研究政府投资相关理论;对我国政府对城乡投资的情况进行了实证分析,采用总量指标和相对指标等对政府对城乡投资的规模进行比较。引入内生增长理论模型进行研究,将政府对城镇和农村的投资与其各自的GDP的比值作为联系起来,进行政府对城乡投资的需求分析;通过利用历史数据,建立生产函数模型,得出政府对城镇和农村各自的最优投资规模。将政府对农村投资规模与对城镇投资规模进行比较分析;以此为依据,提出了政府投资配置的相关政策建议。
(5)基于城乡统筹的投资体制和管理方法研究。将我国的政府主导和市场运作相结合的投资体制与国外单纯市场主导型投资体制进行比较分析;针对我国现行城乡二元投资体制存在的弊端,找出问题产生的根源。借鉴国外投资体制的经验,提出了构建基于城乡统筹的投资体制的目标模式和具体内容,以及相应的配套措施;针对如何建立与当前发展相适应投资管理方法,提出了相关建议。
在研究过程中,本文借鉴发展经济学和计量经济学等领域已有的研究成果,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、归纳与演绎相结合、理论分析和实例分析相结合等方法,并大量运用了比较分析的方法,以城乡统筹为背景,研究了如何对投入资金进行合理配置,对于国家和各级政府制定政策、引导资金流动具有重要意义,具有广阔的应用前景。
Since the reform and opening-up, our country has obtained the achievement which attracted worldwide attention, the economic society developed fast, and the people’s living standard had the remarkable enhancement. But at the same time, there were still some social contradictories and the urban-rural disparity is most serious one among them. Whether the urban-rural question can be effective resolved is the prerequisite of realizing the entire social fast synchronization development and the comprehensive well-off. Only carries on moderately, the science city and countryside investment, can reduce the city and countryside disparity as soon as possible, realize the city and countryside overall plan development. Under this development goal, how much Fixed Assets Investment (FAI) the city and countryside each need, how to optimized distribute the FAI and establish the rational FAI system, will be the an very important issue.
This article formulatedthe urban-rural FAI strategy for all levels of governments, strengthens the investment management, the enhancement investment benefit, thus solves the problem of " Agriculture, Countryside and Farmer”, the establishment socialism new countryside, reduces the urban-rural disparity, advances our country economic society coordinated development have the extremely important theory value and the practice instruction significance.
In the introduction, through to studies the background and the domestic and foreign city and countryside overall plan theory and the investment disposition research present situation analysis, had expounded this article studies the goal and the vital significance, propose the system research based on the urban-rural balance development theory investment disposition question effective method. Launches the research in this foundation, the content mainly includes:
(1) Theoretical analysis the FAI distribution based on urban-rural balance development. Thoroughly analysis the theory which the urban-rural balance development proposed and the coordination theory, as well as the urban-rural balance development proposed the realistic background of national economy fast development and the city and countryside disparity unceasingly enlarge, and has thoroughly analyzed the city and countryside overall plan theory connotation in this foundation, proposed based on the overall plan development new city and countryside relations. Has formulated our country city and countryside overall plan development principle, according to our country economic restructuring and the national economic development, has established the urban-rural balance development targets of short-term (2006~2020), intermediate-term (2010~2020) and long-term (2020~2050). To conduct the research for the first time based on the urban-rural balance development disposition theory. Proposed the disposition to be supposed to follow the principle-“fair and the efficiency simultaneously develop ", and the display government's function, makes up the market in city and countryside resources disposition flaw.
(2) Forecast of the speed of economic development and the scale of investment from 2006~2020. Through to analysis of investment and the economical growth theory, it made the interaction relations clear; analyzed how to invests affects and the fuel economic growth. Unifies overseas some national the development experience, carries on the comparative analysis with our country current investment situation, pointed out recent years our country invested the main reason which the benefit unceasingly reduced. Analyzes relations which the moderate investment scale and the economy grows; The graduation, analyzes the investment scale influence factor in administrative levels; using model and the international experience compared with the investment scale, obtained our country’s moderate investment scale. Through establishing the rate of investment and economic growth model, and forecasted economic growth situation and the investment rate from 2006~2020, and forecast take the scale of fixed asset investment.
(3) Research on how to reasonable distribute the investment between cities and countryside. Comparison research on the scale of urban-rural investment, growth tendency, investment benefit from 1980~2005; Obtains our country city and countryside investment the development characteristic. Established the urban-rural CES productive function, analyzed the urban-rural productive benefit. Through establishing the urban-rural investment-income model, obtained the average per capital FAI coefficient which to the cities, the countryside inhabitant receives. Thoroughly study has carried on the investment disposition in the city and countryside overall plan foundation the principle; Creative proposed take reduces the city and countryside income as the objective function, the establishment investment optimization disposition model; Using the matlab software computation, will obtain is suitable our country future the economic society coordinated development city and countryside investment scale.
(4) Research on the distribution of the government investment to the countryside. Thoroughly research the related theory of government investment; adopted the real diagnosis analysis to our country government to the rural investment situation, used the total quantity target and the relative index and so on carries on the analysis to the government to the rural investment scale. Through using the historical data, established the production function model, obtained the government to the rural investment most superior scale. With thee comparative analysis of the scale of government to the cities and countryside; Take this as the basis, put forward the correlation policies.
(5) Establishment of rural investment system and investment management. The analysis of investment system and the overseas pure market leadership investment system unifies which our country government leadership and the market operation carries on the comparative; Analyzeed our country present rural investment system existence the malpractice, pointed out the investment main body sole, the channel narrow, the investment management is not perfect and so on has directly affected the countryside investment effect and the rural economy development. Profits from the overseas rural investment system the experience, proposed the countryside investment organizational reform content; Constructs adapts the countryside development investment system; Promulgates the countryside investment the management and current develops unsuitably, put forward the correlation proposal
In the process of the research, this article referenced the research results of the development economics and econometrics, took the systemic thinking as the instruction, using the development analysis and the comparative analysis, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, the induction and the deduction, the theoretical analysis and the real diagnosis analysis and so on methods, take the urban-rural balance development as the background, researched on the reasonable disposition to the investment fund, regarding national and all levels of governments policy making, the guidance fund mobile had the vital significance, had the broad application prospect.
本文的研究对于国家和地方各级政府制定城乡投资战略、加强投资管理、提高投资效益,从而解决“三农”问题、建立社会主义新农村、缩小城乡差距、推进我国经济社会协调发展都具有十分重要的理论价值和实践指导意义。在绪论部分,通过对研究背景和国内外城乡统筹理论和投资配置研究现状的分析,阐明了本文研究的目的和重要意义,提出系统研究基于城乡统筹理论的投资配置问题的有效方法。在此基础上展开研究,内容主要包括:
(1)基于城乡统筹发展的投资配置理论分析。指出了城乡统筹提出的现实背景——国民经济的快速发展及城乡差距的不断加大,在此基础上深入分析了城乡统筹理论的内涵,提出了建立基于统筹发展的新型城乡关系。制定了我国城乡统筹发展的原则,根据我国国民经济发展的总体规划,确立了我国城乡统筹发展短期(2006～2010年)、中期(2010～2020年)和长期(2020～2050年)的战略目标。首次对基于城乡统筹的投资配置理论进行了研究。提出了在城乡统筹基础上投资配置应遵循“公平和效率并举”的原则,并发挥政府的作用,弥补市场在城乡资源配置中的缺陷。
(2)对我国2006～2020年经济发展和投资总体规模的预测。通过对投资和经济增长理论进行分析,明确二者间的互动关系;分析投资如何影响和拉动经济增长。结合国外一些国家的发展经验,与我国当前的投资情况进行比较分析,指出近年来我国投资效益不断降低的主要原因。分析适度投资规模与经济增长的关系;分级、分层次分析投资规模影响因素;利用钱纳里—赛尔昆模型及国际经验与我国投资规模进行比较,得出我国适度投资规模的范围。建立了投资率与经济增长率的关系模型,对我国2006～2020年的经济增长情况和投资率进行预测,并以此为依据对我国固定资产投资总体规模进行预测。
(3)研究如何将投资在我国城镇、农村之间进行合理配置。对我国1980～2005年间城乡投资规模、增长趋势、投资效益的比较研究;得出我国城乡投资的发展特征。建立了城镇、农村的CES生产函数,对城镇、农村的投入产出效益进行分析。建立了城镇、农村的投资——收入模型,得出等量的人均投资对城镇、农村居民收入的带动系数。深入研究了在城乡统筹的基础上进行投资配置的原则;创造性的提出以缩小城乡收入为目标函数、建立投资优化配置模型;利用matlab软件计算,得出适宜我国未来经济社会协调发展的城乡投资规模。
(4)研究基于城乡统筹的我国政府投资配置问题。深入研究政府投资相关理论;对我国政府对城乡投资的情况进行了实证分析,采用总量指标和相对指标等对政府对城乡投资的规模进行比较。引入内生增长理论模型进行研究,将政府对城镇和农村的投资与其各自的GDP的比值作为联系起来,进行政府对城乡投资的需求分析;通过利用历史数据,建立生产函数模型,得出政府对城镇和农村各自的最优投资规模。将政府对农村投资规模与对城镇投资规模进行比较分析;以此为依据,提出了政府投资配置的相关政策建议。
(5)基于城乡统筹的投资体制和管理方法研究。将我国的政府主导和市场运作相结合的投资体制与国外单纯市场主导型投资体制进行比较分析;针对我国现行城乡二元投资体制存在的弊端,找出问题产生的根源。借鉴国外投资体制的经验,提出了构建基于城乡统筹的投资体制的目标模式和具体内容,以及相应的配套措施;针对如何建立与当前发展相适应投资管理方法,提出了相关建议。
在研究过程中,本文借鉴发展经济学和计量经济学等领域已有的研究成果,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、归纳与演绎相结合、理论分析和实例分析相结合等方法,并大量运用了比较分析的方法,以城乡统筹为背景,研究了如何对投入资金进行合理配置,对于国家和各级政府制定政策、引导资金流动具有重要意义,具有广阔的应用前景。
Since the reform and opening-up, our country has obtained the achievement which attracted worldwide attention, the economic society developed fast, and the people’s living standard had the remarkable enhancement. But at the same time, there were still some social contradictories and the urban-rural disparity is most serious one among them. Whether the urban-rural question can be effective resolved is the prerequisite of realizing the entire social fast synchronization development and the comprehensive well-off. Only carries on moderately, the science city and countryside investment, can reduce the city and countryside disparity as soon as possible, realize the city and countryside overall plan development. Under this development goal, how much Fixed Assets Investment (FAI) the city and countryside each need, how to optimized distribute the FAI and establish the rational FAI system, will be the an very important issue.
This article formulatedthe urban-rural FAI strategy for all levels of governments, strengthens the investment management, the enhancement investment benefit, thus solves the problem of " Agriculture, Countryside and Farmer”, the establishment socialism new countryside, reduces the urban-rural disparity, advances our country economic society coordinated development have the extremely important theory value and the practice instruction significance.
In the introduction, through to studies the background and the domestic and foreign city and countryside overall plan theory and the investment disposition research present situation analysis, had expounded this article studies the goal and the vital significance, propose the system research based on the urban-rural balance development theory investment disposition question effective method. Launches the research in this foundation, the content mainly includes:
(1) Theoretical analysis the FAI distribution based on urban-rural balance development. Thoroughly analysis the theory which the urban-rural balance development proposed and the coordination theory, as well as the urban-rural balance development proposed the realistic background of national economy fast development and the city and countryside disparity unceasingly enlarge, and has thoroughly analyzed the city and countryside overall plan theory connotation in this foundation, proposed based on the overall plan development new city and countryside relations. Has formulated our country city and countryside overall plan development principle, according to our country economic restructuring and the national economic development, has established the urban-rural balance development targets of short-term (2006~2020), intermediate-term (2010~2020) and long-term (2020~2050). To conduct the research for the first time based on the urban-rural balance development disposition theory. Proposed the disposition to be supposed to follow the principle-“fair and the efficiency simultaneously develop ", and the display government's function, makes up the market in city and countryside resources disposition flaw.
(2) Forecast of the speed of economic development and the scale of investment from 2006~2020. Through to analysis of investment and the economical growth theory, it made the interaction relations clear; analyzed how to invests affects and the fuel economic growth. Unifies overseas some national the development experience, carries on the comparative analysis with our country current investment situation, pointed out recent years our country invested the main reason which the benefit unceasingly reduced. Analyzes relations which the moderate investment scale and the economy grows; The graduation, analyzes the investment scale influence factor in administrative levels; using model and the international experience compared with the investment scale, obtained our country’s moderate investment scale. Through establishing the rate of investment and economic growth model, and forecasted economic growth situation and the investment rate from 2006~2020, and forecast take the scale of fixed asset investment.
(3) Research on how to reasonable distribute the investment between cities and countryside. Comparison research on the scale of urban-rural investment, growth tendency, investment benefit from 1980~2005; Obtains our country city and countryside investment the development characteristic. Established the urban-rural CES productive function, analyzed the urban-rural productive benefit. Through establishing the urban-rural investment-income model, obtained the average per capital FAI coefficient which to the cities, the countryside inhabitant receives. Thoroughly study has carried on the investment disposition in the city and countryside overall plan foundation the principle; Creative proposed take reduces the city and countryside income as the objective function, the establishment investment optimization disposition model; Using the matlab software computation, will obtain is suitable our country future the economic society coordinated development city and countryside investment scale.
(4) Research on the distribution of the government investment to the countryside. Thoroughly research the related theory of government investment; adopted the real diagnosis analysis to our country government to the rural investment situation, used the total quantity target and the relative index and so on carries on the analysis to the government to the rural investment scale. Through using the historical data, established the production function model, obtained the government to the rural investment most superior scale. With thee comparative analysis of the scale of government to the cities and countryside; Take this as the basis, put forward the correlation policies.
(5) Establishment of rural investment system and investment management. The analysis of investment system and the overseas pure market leadership investment system unifies which our country government leadership and the market operation carries on the comparative; Analyzeed our country present rural investment system existence the malpractice, pointed out the investment main body sole, the channel narrow, the investment management is not perfect and so on has directly affected the countryside investment effect and the rural economy development. Profits from the overseas rural investment system the experience, proposed the countryside investment organizational reform content; Constructs adapts the countryside development investment system; Promulgates the countryside investment the management and current develops unsuitably, put forward the correlation proposal
In the process of the research, this article referenced the research results of the development economics and econometrics, took the systemic thinking as the instruction, using the development analysis and the comparative analysis, the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, the induction and the deduction, the theoretical analysis and the real diagnosis analysis and so on methods, take the urban-rural balance development as the background, researched on the reasonable disposition to the investment fund, regarding national and all levels of governments policy making, the guidance fund mobile had the vital significance, had the broad application prospect.
引文
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