基于LMDI的我国二氧化碳排放影响因素研究
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摘要
本文研究以现代管理学、能源经济学、统计学、低碳经济理论、指数分解理论、灰色系统理论、随机过程理论、优化理论为基础，采用定性分析与定量研究相结合的方法，以我国二氧化碳排放现状为依据，首先，估算并建立了我国能源活动和工业生产活动二氧化碳排放清单，且对二氧化碳排放的区域和行业特征进行分析；其次，运用指数分解原理借助LMDI模型系统分析了我国二氧化碳排放增长影响因素，并对影响因素进行分类研究；第三，在考虑经济发展速度和能源消耗量等约束条件下，构建了灰色系统和马尔科夫链组合预测模型，并采用该方法预测了我国未来十年的能源消费结构和产业结构，然后结合我国政府承诺的碳强度约束目标对其进行优化调整，并分析了目标实现的可能性，最后结合以上分析对我国二氧化碳减排对策进行了研究。
The dissertation is on the basis of Management, Energy Economics, Statistics,the theory of low-carbon economy, the index decomposition theory, gray systemtheory, the theory of stochastic processes, optimization theory, using the combinationmethods of qualitative analysis and quantitative research, based on the Status ofChina's carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, this dissertation estimated and establishedthe CO2emissions inventory of China's energy and industrial processes, and analysedregional and industry characteristics of China's carbon dioxide emissions. Secondly,by the use of the index decomposition theory and the LMDI model, this dissertationsystematically analyzed influencing factors of the growth of China's carbon dioxideemissions, and conducted these factors into classification. Thirdly，in consideration ofthe the economic development and energy consumption, this dissertation constructedthe combination forecasting model, predicted the China's energy consumptionstructure and industrial structure for the next decade, And then combined with thecommitment of my Government's objectives to optimize the predictive value. In theend, this dissertation analyzed our country's carbon dioxide emission reductioncountermeasures.
The dissertation is on the basis of Management, Energy Economics, Statistics,the theory of low-carbon economy, the index decomposition theory, gray systemtheory, the theory of stochastic processes, optimization theory, using the combinationmethods of qualitative analysis and quantitative research, based on the Status ofChina's carbon dioxide emissions. Firstly, this dissertation estimated and establishedthe CO2emissions inventory of China's energy and industrial processes, and analysedregional and industry characteristics of China's carbon dioxide emissions. Secondly,by the use of the index decomposition theory and the LMDI model, this dissertationsystematically analyzed influencing factors of the growth of China's carbon dioxideemissions, and conducted these factors into classification. Thirdly，in consideration ofthe the economic development and energy consumption, this dissertation constructedthe combination forecasting model, predicted the China's energy consumptionstructure and industrial structure for the next decade, And then combined with thecommitment of my Government's objectives to optimize the predictive value. In theend, this dissertation analyzed our country's carbon dioxide emission reductioncountermeasures.
引文
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