完善房地产项目可行性分析的应用研究
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摘要
我国市场经济体制的建立，住房制度改革和房地产市场的逐步形成和规范，房地产市场竞争越来越激烈，靠投机取得成功的机会很少，从而决定了房地产投资是一种高风险高收入的投资。在我国，房地产经过二十几年的发展，已经成为我国国民经济的重要支柱之一，但是在房地产业中还存在很多不完善的地方，尤其在投资可行性分析研究方面还比较滞后。目前，在我国房地产市场中出现了一些问题，由于城市化建设的迅速发展，在各城市中房地产开发企业如雨后春笋般成立，各企业为了抢占市场份额和利润，纷纷仓促开发房地产项目，导致投资规模过大，盲目投资重，商品房积压，土地抛荒等诸多问题。这与房地产开发企业在投资决策前没有重视可行性研究有关系。房地产项目可行性研究是房地产开发决策分析过程中的重要步骤，它是房地产开发项目投资决策的重要依据。通过对开发项目的全面分析，论证，各方案比较和评价，从而保证它在技术上可行，环境上允许，经济上合理，经济效益显著。在房地产开发过程中加强可行性研究指标的控制，可以减少投资决策的盲目性，提高房地产企业的经济效益和促进城市土地的合理使用，使房地产市场健康发展和不断完善。
房地产开发项目的投资额巨大，建设周期长，受自然因素以及社会经济，行政，心理等因素的影响大，一旦决策失误就会给投资者带来巨大的甚至毁灭性的损失，因而存在着很高的投资风险。随着房地产市场的逐步规范，竞争会日益激烈，房地产投资者靠侥幸获取投资成功的机会越来越少。因此在项目的决策阶段，为避免投资的盲目性，越来越多的房地产投资者把对项目进行的可行性研究作为投资决策的重要依据。
在本文中运用了理论分析与实际分析相结合，对各投资方案的经济效益进行定量分析，对社会，环境效益进行了定性分析，运用了宏观分析和微观分析相结合，静态分析和动态分析相结合的方法，进行全面分析，本文还以武汉市一个具体的房地产项目为例，运用可行性研究的一般理论对项目的市场背景，项目区域市场状况，项目本身优劣势进行了全面的分析，提出了项目的市场定位及建设经营方案。在此基础之上预测本项目经济上的是否合理，财务上是否盈利，从而明确该开发项目是否可行。本文主要包括五个部分内容：首先是本文的绪论，然后就房地产项目可行性研究的基础理论进行阐述，紧接着以南波湾二期房地产项目为对象对房地产项目可行性分析进行实证研究。文章最后提出了完善房地产项目可行性分析的建议：加强房地产项目可行性研究，理论研究与创新：建立科学的评价指标体系，建立数据库，加强咨询中的规范化，改进可研的备案和监督制，分析各环节的过去和现状，加强风险分析，以体现可研的重要性。
The setting-up of the market economic system in our country, the housing system reform and the taking shape and standardizing of real estate market, make the real market competition fiercer and fiercer. The chance to achieve success by speculation is very little, which determined that real estate investment is of high income and high risk. In our country, with the development of more than 20 years, it has already become one of the most important pillars of our national economy, but it still has lots of places of imperfect in real estate, especially in investing feasibility analysis and research. At present, some questions have presented in the real estate market of our country, because of the rapid urbanization construction, enterprises of real estate are established like mushrooms after rain in most cities, every enterprise, in order to get market share and profit, developing projects hurriedly one after another, which led to the scale of investment too big, blind investment becoming heavy, the commodity house accumulating, land being laid idle, etc..
It has relations with that enterprises didn't paid more attention to feasibility research before investment. The feasibility research of the real estate is an important step of real estate development decision and analysis it is the important basis of the development item investment decision of the real estate.
Through the multi-analysis, demonstration, compare and appraises the item, guarantee it to be feasible in technology, reasonable in environment, rational in economy and enable the economic benefits are remarkable. Strengthening the control of the feasibility research index in the course of real estate, can reduce the blindness of the investment decision, improve the economic benefits of real estate enterprises and promote the rational using of urban land, which make the real estate market develop in a healthy way and perfect constantly.
The investment of real estate is huge, the construction period is long, and the item will be affected by natural factors, social economy, the administration, and the psychology, etc. The decision fault will bring enormous losses to investors, therefore, very high investment risk exists. With the gradual norm of the real estate market, the competition will be fierce day by day, there are fewer and fewer chances to succeed with invest by chance. So at the decision stage of the project, for avoiding blind investment, more and more real estate investors regard feasibility research as important basis of decision of the project.
In the paper, I use the combination of theory and actuality analyse, carry on quantitative analysis to the economic benefits of every investment programme, carry on qualitative analysis to social and environmental benefits, use analysis of combining with macro and micro analysis, dynamic and static analysis. This paper yet takes an actual estate project in WuHan as an example, using the theory of feasibility research to analyse the market background, the regional market situation of project, and the excellence and inferior of the project, the market orientation of the project and built-operation programme. Based on that above, I predict whether rational or not from economical facet, whether profitable on the financial facet, then assure that whether it is feasible to develop the project. This paper includes five main parts: firstly the introduction of this paper, then explain on the basic theory of project feasibility research of the real estate, and then take the second stage of NanBoWan project as a example of to analyse the project feasibility of the real estate. Finally, I put forward suggestion to perfecting the project feasibility research of real estate project as follow: strengthen the project feasibility research, and the theory research and innovation; Establish the system of scientific evaluation index, set up the database, strengthen the standardization on consulting, improve the copy and supervision system, analyse the past of every link and current situation , strengthen risk analysis, in order to reflect the importance of feasibility research.
房地产开发项目的投资额巨大，建设周期长，受自然因素以及社会经济，行政，心理等因素的影响大，一旦决策失误就会给投资者带来巨大的甚至毁灭性的损失，因而存在着很高的投资风险。随着房地产市场的逐步规范，竞争会日益激烈，房地产投资者靠侥幸获取投资成功的机会越来越少。因此在项目的决策阶段，为避免投资的盲目性，越来越多的房地产投资者把对项目进行的可行性研究作为投资决策的重要依据。
在本文中运用了理论分析与实际分析相结合，对各投资方案的经济效益进行定量分析，对社会，环境效益进行了定性分析，运用了宏观分析和微观分析相结合，静态分析和动态分析相结合的方法，进行全面分析，本文还以武汉市一个具体的房地产项目为例，运用可行性研究的一般理论对项目的市场背景，项目区域市场状况，项目本身优劣势进行了全面的分析，提出了项目的市场定位及建设经营方案。在此基础之上预测本项目经济上的是否合理，财务上是否盈利，从而明确该开发项目是否可行。本文主要包括五个部分内容：首先是本文的绪论，然后就房地产项目可行性研究的基础理论进行阐述，紧接着以南波湾二期房地产项目为对象对房地产项目可行性分析进行实证研究。文章最后提出了完善房地产项目可行性分析的建议：加强房地产项目可行性研究，理论研究与创新：建立科学的评价指标体系，建立数据库，加强咨询中的规范化，改进可研的备案和监督制，分析各环节的过去和现状，加强风险分析，以体现可研的重要性。
The setting-up of the market economic system in our country, the housing system reform and the taking shape and standardizing of real estate market, make the real market competition fiercer and fiercer. The chance to achieve success by speculation is very little, which determined that real estate investment is of high income and high risk. In our country, with the development of more than 20 years, it has already become one of the most important pillars of our national economy, but it still has lots of places of imperfect in real estate, especially in investing feasibility analysis and research. At present, some questions have presented in the real estate market of our country, because of the rapid urbanization construction, enterprises of real estate are established like mushrooms after rain in most cities, every enterprise, in order to get market share and profit, developing projects hurriedly one after another, which led to the scale of investment too big, blind investment becoming heavy, the commodity house accumulating, land being laid idle, etc..
It has relations with that enterprises didn't paid more attention to feasibility research before investment. The feasibility research of the real estate is an important step of real estate development decision and analysis it is the important basis of the development item investment decision of the real estate.
Through the multi-analysis, demonstration, compare and appraises the item, guarantee it to be feasible in technology, reasonable in environment, rational in economy and enable the economic benefits are remarkable. Strengthening the control of the feasibility research index in the course of real estate, can reduce the blindness of the investment decision, improve the economic benefits of real estate enterprises and promote the rational using of urban land, which make the real estate market develop in a healthy way and perfect constantly.
The investment of real estate is huge, the construction period is long, and the item will be affected by natural factors, social economy, the administration, and the psychology, etc. The decision fault will bring enormous losses to investors, therefore, very high investment risk exists. With the gradual norm of the real estate market, the competition will be fierce day by day, there are fewer and fewer chances to succeed with invest by chance. So at the decision stage of the project, for avoiding blind investment, more and more real estate investors regard feasibility research as important basis of decision of the project.
In the paper, I use the combination of theory and actuality analyse, carry on quantitative analysis to the economic benefits of every investment programme, carry on qualitative analysis to social and environmental benefits, use analysis of combining with macro and micro analysis, dynamic and static analysis. This paper yet takes an actual estate project in WuHan as an example, using the theory of feasibility research to analyse the market background, the regional market situation of project, and the excellence and inferior of the project, the market orientation of the project and built-operation programme. Based on that above, I predict whether rational or not from economical facet, whether profitable on the financial facet, then assure that whether it is feasible to develop the project. This paper includes five main parts: firstly the introduction of this paper, then explain on the basic theory of project feasibility research of the real estate, and then take the second stage of NanBoWan project as a example of to analyse the project feasibility of the real estate. Finally, I put forward suggestion to perfecting the project feasibility research of real estate project as follow: strengthen the project feasibility research, and the theory research and innovation; Establish the system of scientific evaluation index, set up the database, strengthen the standardization on consulting, improve the copy and supervision system, analyse the past of every link and current situation , strengthen risk analysis, in order to reflect the importance of feasibility research.
引文
[1] 黄贤金，房地产企业经营管理．上海财经大学出版社，2000．
[2] 曾祥瑞．房地产投资可行性分析方法研究．中国房地产，2002(7)．
[3] 刘洪玉．房地产开发经营与管理．中国物价出版社，2001．
[4] 王明华、杨应玖．房地产项目开发的灰色可行性研究．中国房地产，2000(2)．
[5] 曲丽萍．论可行性研究在房地产开发中的作用及要求．建筑经济，2001(7)．
[6] 傅鸿源、张仕廉．投资决策与项目策划．科学出版社，2001．
[7] 龙胜平．房地产金融与投资．高等教育出版社，1998．
[8] 饶钢．投资项目财务评价中的经营风险分析．技术经济，1997(6)
[9] 陈弘．房地产投资风险分析．经济评论，2004(2)
[10] 西宝，董玉学房地产投资风险评价基本理论．哈尔滨建筑大学学报，1997(5)
[11] 郑华．房地产市场分析方法．电子工业出版社，2003．
[12] 谢经荣、吕萍、乔志敏．房地产经济学．中国人民大学出版社，2002．
[13] 孙玉梅，刘洪玉．房地产市场分析的内容与特点．建筑经济，2003(1)
[14] 简德三、王洪卫．房地产经济学．上海财经大学出版社，2004．
[15] Also at Belfast, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Dublin. A Business Incubator for West Suffolk: A Feasibility Study. Suffolk Development Agency. 2004. 12
[16] 苏世功．初论近郊房地产开发项目的可行性研究[J]．建筑经济，2003(8)．
[17] 潘蜀健．房地产投资经济效益分析方法．中国人民大学出版社，1998．
[18] 赵国杰．建设项目经济评价．天津科技翻译出版公司，1989年10月第1版，
[19] 周理．工程经济学．加工出版社，1989年7月北京第1版．
[20] Review of The Draft Civic Center Feasibility Study for the City of Santafe, New Mexico. 2004. 12
[21] 俞明轩．房地产投资分析．中国人民大学出版社，2002．
[22] 周鲜华，周立颖．房地产投资的风险及其防范．哈尔滨建筑大学学报，1998(5)
[23] 俞久如，投资项目风险分忻．中国机械工业出版社，1999．
[24] 赵世强．房地产开发风险管理．中国建材工业出版社，2003．．
[25] Commercial Real Estate and Construction Lending. Comptroller's Handbook. NarrativeNovember 1995, Procedures-March 1998
[26] 杨力．房地产投资风险分析及测度方法．安徽大学学报，1997(3)
[27] 刘勇．论房地产开发中的风险与回避．西北建筑工程学院学报，1998(1)
[28] 中金山等．房地产开发经营的风险分析．华北水利水电学院学报，1995(3)
[29] 滕清安，李传裕．房地产投资风险分析及管理．企业经济，2004(2)
[30] [美]威廉姆．B．布鲁格曼，杰夫瑞．D．费雪．房地产金融与投资[M]．东北财经社，2000．
[31] 王要武，罗兆烈，孙平主编．房地产市场．中国计划出版社，1999年10月第1版．
[32] 中国国家统计局．中国统计年鉴．中国统计出版社，2003．
[33] 长沙市房地产年鉴．湖南科学技术出版社，2003．
[34] Mauna Loa Trail System Feasibility Study. Clement Chang Irving Kawashima Hawai'i Division of Forestry and Wildlife - Na Ala Hele. 2005. 8
[35] Edgewood sewer Feasibility Study. Prepare for city of Edgewood 2221 meridian avenue east. Edgewood Washington. Prepare by parametrix 1231 frar avenue and FCS Group. March. 2002
[36] Feasibility Study of the Proposed Reorganization and Creation of the Dixie-Terra Linda Unified School District. July 19, 2001
[37] 建设部．房地产开发项目经济评价方法．中国计划出版社，2000．
[38] 宋应召．地产业如何解决利润率与销售速度之间的分歧．住宅与房地产，2005(4)
[39] 乔志敏．房地产价格研究．经济管理出版社，2002．
[40] 安力．房地产开发可行性分析售价预测方法浅析．房地产市场，2001(2)．
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[44] 财政部注册会计师考试办公室．会计．中国财政经济出版社，2004．
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[46] 财政部注册会计师考试办公室．财务成本管理．经济科学出版社，2004．
[47] 何俊德．项目评估的理论与方法．华中理工大学出版社，2000．
[48] 张贯益．房地产价格评估．华中师范大学出版社，2003．
[49] Feasibility Study of Proposed Water Quality, Drainage, and Habitat Improvement Activities in the No Name Slough Watershed, Skagit County, Washington, Skagit Conservation District Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. March 2005
[50] 李进都．房地产税收理论与实务．中国税务出版社，2000．
[51] 周寅康．房地产估价．东南大学出版社，2001．
[52] 任蔼堂主编．建设项目评估．西南财经大学出版社，1997年6月第1版
[53] Starting a Small Business: The Feasibility Analysis by Michael D. Reilly, Ph. D. and Norman L. Millikin, Ph. D. College of Business, Montana State University-Bozeman a) Community Development E-13 (Economic Development) Reprinted August 1996
[54] Feasible Research on the Construction of Web GIS in Greater Mekong Subregion. Li Su-Min and Shi Kun Kunming University of Science and Technology 121 Street, Kunming, P. O. 650093, Yunnan, China. 200. 4. 6
[55] Marietta, Ohio. Feasibility Study for a New Justice Center Stephen Hughes Gegner Architects / Architectural Alchemy Michael H. Scott, Collaborating Architect October 2002
[56] Knoxville South Waterfront Redevelopment Feasibility Study april 2005
[57] Transit Connector Feasibility Study Final Report. Sponsored By: Maryland Transit Administration University of Maryland January 2003
[58] 林增杰．网络时代的房地产业[M]．天津大学出版社，1999
[2] 曾祥瑞．房地产投资可行性分析方法研究．中国房地产，2002(7)．
[3] 刘洪玉．房地产开发经营与管理．中国物价出版社，2001．
[4] 王明华、杨应玖．房地产项目开发的灰色可行性研究．中国房地产，2000(2)．
[5] 曲丽萍．论可行性研究在房地产开发中的作用及要求．建筑经济，2001(7)．
[6] 傅鸿源、张仕廉．投资决策与项目策划．科学出版社，2001．
[7] 龙胜平．房地产金融与投资．高等教育出版社，1998．
[8] 饶钢．投资项目财务评价中的经营风险分析．技术经济，1997(6)
[9] 陈弘．房地产投资风险分析．经济评论，2004(2)
[10] 西宝，董玉学房地产投资风险评价基本理论．哈尔滨建筑大学学报，1997(5)
[11] 郑华．房地产市场分析方法．电子工业出版社，2003．
[12] 谢经荣、吕萍、乔志敏．房地产经济学．中国人民大学出版社，2002．
[13] 孙玉梅，刘洪玉．房地产市场分析的内容与特点．建筑经济，2003(1)
[14] 简德三、王洪卫．房地产经济学．上海财经大学出版社，2004．
[15] Also at Belfast, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Dublin. A Business Incubator for West Suffolk: A Feasibility Study. Suffolk Development Agency. 2004. 12
[16] 苏世功．初论近郊房地产开发项目的可行性研究[J]．建筑经济，2003(8)．
[17] 潘蜀健．房地产投资经济效益分析方法．中国人民大学出版社，1998．
[18] 赵国杰．建设项目经济评价．天津科技翻译出版公司，1989年10月第1版，
[19] 周理．工程经济学．加工出版社，1989年7月北京第1版．
[20] Review of The Draft Civic Center Feasibility Study for the City of Santafe, New Mexico. 2004. 12
[21] 俞明轩．房地产投资分析．中国人民大学出版社，2002．
[22] 周鲜华，周立颖．房地产投资的风险及其防范．哈尔滨建筑大学学报，1998(5)
[23] 俞久如，投资项目风险分忻．中国机械工业出版社，1999．
[24] 赵世强．房地产开发风险管理．中国建材工业出版社，2003．．
[25] Commercial Real Estate and Construction Lending. Comptroller's Handbook. NarrativeNovember 1995, Procedures-March 1998
[26] 杨力．房地产投资风险分析及测度方法．安徽大学学报，1997(3)
[27] 刘勇．论房地产开发中的风险与回避．西北建筑工程学院学报，1998(1)
[28] 中金山等．房地产开发经营的风险分析．华北水利水电学院学报，1995(3)
[29] 滕清安，李传裕．房地产投资风险分析及管理．企业经济，2004(2)
[30] [美]威廉姆．B．布鲁格曼，杰夫瑞．D．费雪．房地产金融与投资[M]．东北财经社，2000．
[31] 王要武，罗兆烈，孙平主编．房地产市场．中国计划出版社，1999年10月第1版．
[32] 中国国家统计局．中国统计年鉴．中国统计出版社，2003．
[33] 长沙市房地产年鉴．湖南科学技术出版社，2003．
[34] Mauna Loa Trail System Feasibility Study. Clement Chang Irving Kawashima Hawai'i Division of Forestry and Wildlife - Na Ala Hele. 2005. 8
[35] Edgewood sewer Feasibility Study. Prepare for city of Edgewood 2221 meridian avenue east. Edgewood Washington. Prepare by parametrix 1231 frar avenue and FCS Group. March. 2002
[36] Feasibility Study of the Proposed Reorganization and Creation of the Dixie-Terra Linda Unified School District. July 19, 2001
[37] 建设部．房地产开发项目经济评价方法．中国计划出版社，2000．
[38] 宋应召．地产业如何解决利润率与销售速度之间的分歧．住宅与房地产，2005(4)
[39] 乔志敏．房地产价格研究．经济管理出版社，2002．
[40] 安力．房地产开发可行性分析售价预测方法浅析．房地产市场，2001(2)．
[41] 王人己、姚玲珍．房地产估价．上海财经大学出版社，2004．
[42] 全国造价工程师考试培训教材编写委员会，全国造价工程师考试培训教材，审定委员会．工程造价的确定与控制(第二版)．中国计划出版社，2004．4．
[43] 张建国、周丽莺、张春华．投资项目经济评价学．冶金工业出版社，1997
[44] 财政部注册会计师考试办公室．会计．中国财政经济出版社，2004．
[45] 姚玲珍．房地产市场营销．上海财经大学出版社，2004．
[46] 财政部注册会计师考试办公室．财务成本管理．经济科学出版社，2004．
[47] 何俊德．项目评估的理论与方法．华中理工大学出版社，2000．
[48] 张贯益．房地产价格评估．华中师范大学出版社，2003．
[49] Feasibility Study of Proposed Water Quality, Drainage, and Habitat Improvement Activities in the No Name Slough Watershed, Skagit County, Washington, Skagit Conservation District Padilla Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. March 2005
[50] 李进都．房地产税收理论与实务．中国税务出版社，2000．
[51] 周寅康．房地产估价．东南大学出版社，2001．
[52] 任蔼堂主编．建设项目评估．西南财经大学出版社，1997年6月第1版
[53] Starting a Small Business: The Feasibility Analysis by Michael D. Reilly, Ph. D. and Norman L. Millikin, Ph. D. College of Business, Montana State University-Bozeman a) Community Development E-13 (Economic Development) Reprinted August 1996
[54] Feasible Research on the Construction of Web GIS in Greater Mekong Subregion. Li Su-Min and Shi Kun Kunming University of Science and Technology 121 Street, Kunming, P. O. 650093, Yunnan, China. 200. 4. 6
[55] Marietta, Ohio. Feasibility Study for a New Justice Center Stephen Hughes Gegner Architects / Architectural Alchemy Michael H. Scott, Collaborating Architect October 2002
[56] Knoxville South Waterfront Redevelopment Feasibility Study april 2005
[57] Transit Connector Feasibility Study Final Report. Sponsored By: Maryland Transit Administration University of Maryland January 2003
[58] 林增杰．网络时代的房地产业[M]．天津大学出版社，1999