基于公司治理的企业财务危机预警模型研究
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摘要
上市公司作为社会经济的基础,其财务状况和经营业绩的好坏不仅直接决定着公司本身的生存和发展,而且影响着政府宏观经济政策的制定和资本市场的健康有序运行。由于社会经济环境的复杂性和不确定性日益加剧,因管理失效、财务状况恶化而陷入财务危机的公司越来越多,尤其是在全球性的金融危机席卷中国,企业倒闭风潮涌起的背景下,进行财务危机预警研究更具有重要的现实意义。
信息技术企业在推动国家经济发展过程中起到举足轻重的作用,但其高风险性意味着在生产经营活动中将面临诸多不确定性因素,这些因素都会威胁企业正常生产经营,增加其陷入财务危机的可能性。为了消除行业差异对预警模型的影响,本文专门选择信息技术行业上市公司作为研究对象。本文在借鉴国内外财务危机预警相关研究成果的基础上,分析财务危机产生的内在原因在于公司内部治理失效。因此本文采用实证分析的方法进行预测研究,在传统财务指标基础上把公司治理指标引入到财务危机预警模型中,通过筛选变量,并进行logistic回归分析,以期构建适合信息技术企业的针对性更强、预测效果更佳的预警模型。
实证结果显示,公司治理指标与信息技术上市公司是否陷入财务危机具有较强的相关性,引入公司治理指标之后的财务危机预警模型的预测准确率提高了。同时,在时间方面,离财务危机发生的时间越近,模型的预测精度越高。研究还发现,我国信息技术企业是高负债企业,公司应该合理负债,特别加强和提高资金的营运能力和周转速度,保持充足的现金流以应对突变的市场和政策调控因素,避免盲目多元化,有效减少财务风险。公司治理结构中股权制衡的失效和董事会规模的不合理是公司发生财务危机的重要原因,而管理层激励还没有受到足够的重视,公司可以考虑加强对管理层的激励力度,充分调动其配合股东等公司成员实现公司价值最大化的积极性,降低公司财务风险。
Listed company as a socio-economic foundation, its financial position and results of operations not only directly determine the company's own survival and development, but also affect the formulation of government's macroeconomic policy and orderly and healthy operation of the capital markets. Because of the increasing complexity and uncertainty of socio-economic environment, more and more companies got into a financial crisis due to management failure and deterioration of financial situation, especially in the background of that global financial crisis swept through China and waves of corporate bankruptcies surge, it's important and significant to research the financial crisis early-warning.
Information technology companies has played a pivotal role in promoting the country's economic development, but its high-risk means that the production and management activities will be faced with many uncertain factors, which would threat the companies' healthy and normal production and operation, and then it is more likely to get into financial crises. Therefore, we choose information technology companies as research samples. In this paper, based on borrowing the results of relevant research of domestic and international financial crisis early-warning, we found that underlying causes of the financial crisis is generated by internal governance failures. So, this article uses the method of empirical analysis to research how to prediction the financial crisis of listed companies on China's information technology, and based on financial indicators introducing the corporate governance indicator into the financial crisis early-warning model using logistic regression method, hoping to build a targeted early-warning model for better prediction effect.
The research results show that corporate governance indicators have a strong correlation with the information technology companies' financial crisis; introducing corporate governance indicators into financial crisis early-warning model can improve the forecast accuracy. In terms of timing, we find the closer away from the financial crisis, the higher the model's prediction accuracy is. The study also found that the information technology company has high liabilities, and it should raise a loan rationally, especially speed up fund's turnover, and keep enough cash flow, in order to deal with the changes of market and policy regulation, avoid multiplex blindly and finally lower financial crisis. In corporate governance structure, invalid equity share control and irrational board scale are the reasons getting companies into financial crisis, but the management of incentives has not been payed enough attention, so it needs stimulate the management more, which can make them more actively cooperate the other members to create more enterprise value, and lower financial crisis of the company.
信息技术企业在推动国家经济发展过程中起到举足轻重的作用,但其高风险性意味着在生产经营活动中将面临诸多不确定性因素,这些因素都会威胁企业正常生产经营,增加其陷入财务危机的可能性。为了消除行业差异对预警模型的影响,本文专门选择信息技术行业上市公司作为研究对象。本文在借鉴国内外财务危机预警相关研究成果的基础上,分析财务危机产生的内在原因在于公司内部治理失效。因此本文采用实证分析的方法进行预测研究,在传统财务指标基础上把公司治理指标引入到财务危机预警模型中,通过筛选变量,并进行logistic回归分析,以期构建适合信息技术企业的针对性更强、预测效果更佳的预警模型。
实证结果显示,公司治理指标与信息技术上市公司是否陷入财务危机具有较强的相关性,引入公司治理指标之后的财务危机预警模型的预测准确率提高了。同时,在时间方面,离财务危机发生的时间越近,模型的预测精度越高。研究还发现,我国信息技术企业是高负债企业,公司应该合理负债,特别加强和提高资金的营运能力和周转速度,保持充足的现金流以应对突变的市场和政策调控因素,避免盲目多元化,有效减少财务风险。公司治理结构中股权制衡的失效和董事会规模的不合理是公司发生财务危机的重要原因,而管理层激励还没有受到足够的重视,公司可以考虑加强对管理层的激励力度,充分调动其配合股东等公司成员实现公司价值最大化的积极性,降低公司财务风险。
Listed company as a socio-economic foundation, its financial position and results of operations not only directly determine the company's own survival and development, but also affect the formulation of government's macroeconomic policy and orderly and healthy operation of the capital markets. Because of the increasing complexity and uncertainty of socio-economic environment, more and more companies got into a financial crisis due to management failure and deterioration of financial situation, especially in the background of that global financial crisis swept through China and waves of corporate bankruptcies surge, it's important and significant to research the financial crisis early-warning.
Information technology companies has played a pivotal role in promoting the country's economic development, but its high-risk means that the production and management activities will be faced with many uncertain factors, which would threat the companies' healthy and normal production and operation, and then it is more likely to get into financial crises. Therefore, we choose information technology companies as research samples. In this paper, based on borrowing the results of relevant research of domestic and international financial crisis early-warning, we found that underlying causes of the financial crisis is generated by internal governance failures. So, this article uses the method of empirical analysis to research how to prediction the financial crisis of listed companies on China's information technology, and based on financial indicators introducing the corporate governance indicator into the financial crisis early-warning model using logistic regression method, hoping to build a targeted early-warning model for better prediction effect.
The research results show that corporate governance indicators have a strong correlation with the information technology companies' financial crisis; introducing corporate governance indicators into financial crisis early-warning model can improve the forecast accuracy. In terms of timing, we find the closer away from the financial crisis, the higher the model's prediction accuracy is. The study also found that the information technology company has high liabilities, and it should raise a loan rationally, especially speed up fund's turnover, and keep enough cash flow, in order to deal with the changes of market and policy regulation, avoid multiplex blindly and finally lower financial crisis. In corporate governance structure, invalid equity share control and irrational board scale are the reasons getting companies into financial crisis, but the management of incentives has not been payed enough attention, so it needs stimulate the management more, which can make them more actively cooperate the other members to create more enterprise value, and lower financial crisis of the company.
引文
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