中国金融发展的收入分配效应研究
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摘要
改革开放30多年来,中国经济保持了年均9.8%以上的增长速度,经济总量超过日本成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济主体。但与经济高速增长相伴随的是收入分配差距的持续扩大,全国城乡、区域间、社会各阶层的居民收入分配差距迅速扩大。2012年中国家庭金融调查与研究中心发布的调查报告中支指出,截止到2010年中国社会总体的基尼系数达到了0.61,该研究报告还分别测算了城镇和农村的基尼系数,报告指出中国城镇家庭的基尼系数达到了0.56,农村家庭的基尼系数达到了0.60其中尤为明显的是城乡居民收入分配差距由1980年的1.8上升到了2010年的3.36。持续扩大的收入分配差距不仅不利于扩大内需,影响了中国经济转型升级,而且将会带来一系列严重的经济、社会和政治问题,研究在保持经济增长的同时缩小收入分配差距具有重要意义。
本文在金融发展与经济增长关系的基础上将研究拓展到收入分配层面,分析研究金融发展的收入分配效应。本文通过分析金融体系在经济中的功能,总结了金融发展实现其对收入的分配效应主要通过四种机制：增长机制、门槛机制、非均衡机制和技术进步机制,并从总体、城乡、区域层面实证分析了金融发展的收入分配效应。实证结果表明,中国金融发展扩大了总体和城乡收入分配差距,但对区域收入分配差距的影响具有不同的效果。东部地区和东北地区无论是金融发展规模的扩大还是金融发展效率的提升都会显著降低东部地区的收入分配的不平等性；中西部地区的金融发展规模的提高会显著拉大区域内的收入分配的不平等性,而西部地区金融发展效率的提升对于短期收入分配的不平等性具有重要作用。对农村金融发展的收入分配效应的研究表明,中国农村金融发展对农村内部收入分配差距以及城乡之间收入差距都具有明显的扩大作用,其原因在于农村金融资源大量流向城市和农村金融资源缺乏普惠性。
首先,本文在对金融发展理论和收入分配理论进行了梳理,理论层面分析了金融发展影响收入分配的机制,其中包括金融发展的经济增长机制、金融发展的门槛机制、金融发展的非均衡机制和金融发展的技术进步机制,这四大机制实现了金融在促进经济增长的过程中实现了对收入的分配效应。
其次,利用时间序列数据对全国层而的金融发展对总体收入分配效应的影响进行了实证分析。研究表明,以金融相关率衡量的金融发展水平与收入分配差距之间存在倒“U”型关系,因此政府应制定政策推动中西部地区和农村地区金融发展,引导金融资源向中西部地区和广大农村地区流动,以此缩小地区之间以及城乡之间的收入分配差距,实现全国地区之间以及城乡之间的和谐发展。
其次,通过基于SVAR模型的实证分析的金融发展的城乡收入分配效应。研究表明,金融发展规模是影响城乡收入差距的最主要因素；人均GDP和城市化水平对城乡收入差距变化的影响次之,而金融发展效率对城乡收入差距变化的贡献度是最小的,说明金融发展效率对城乡收入差距变化的影响不大。
其次,对中国金融发展的区域收入分配效应进行了分析。结果表明,东部地区已经处于库兹涅茨倒“U”曲线的后半段,而中部地区处于该曲线的中间段,西部地区目前还处于该曲线的前半段。即金融发展会缩小东部地区的收入差距,.拉大中西部地区的收入分配差距,加剧该地区的收入分配的不平等。
再次,分析研究了中国农村金融发J展的内部收入分配效应和城乡收入分配效应。结果表明,东部地区农村金融发展对农村内部收入分配差距的缩小具有积极作用；中、西部地区农村金融的发展呈现出相同的特征,无论是农村存款、农村贷款还是存款转化贷款的比率,它们的提高都会不同程度的扩大本地区的农村居民收入关距。农村金融规模的增加和效率的提高并没有缩小城乡收入差距,相反却是拉讧大了城乡收入差距。
最后,本文在总结相关结论的基础上,给出了政策建议。应通过对金触体制和金融体系的进一步改革,使金融发展对收入的分配更体现公平性。通过建立良好的金融体系,促进经济增长缩小收入分配差距,实现经济增长与分配公平的双赢入性；推动金融资源在区域间、城乡间的均衡配置；实现金融发展的广化效应,降低金融服务的门槛效应,是更多人享受金融自由化带来的收益；建立健全多层次、广覆盖、可持续的普惠性农村金融体系,加大对“三农”的支持力度,鼓励民间资本积极进入农村金融市场,进一步完善和发展以村镇银行、小额贷款公司和资金互助社为代表的农村小微型金融机构,增强其服务于“三农”的信心和力量。
It has been30years since china's reform and open policy,during which period China's economy has maintained a average yearly growth rate of more than9.8percent and China's economy has exceeded Japan to be the world's second largest economic entities which is second only to the USA.However,what companies the high-speed economic growth is problems such as continuous expansion of disparity of income distribution,rapid expansion of income gap between the rural and the urban,as well as among different districts and different social classes. According to the World Bank's survey, China's Gini coefficient has rose from0.32in1980to0.477in2001, surpassing0.4which is internationally acknowledged as the alert line. China's Gini coefficient rank85in120countries, which is approaching to the level of some Latin American countries and African countries with deteriorating income distribution situation.The rural-urban income gap is particularly obvious which grew from1.8percent in1980to3.36percent in2008.Continous disparity of income distribution will not only do harm to china's expansion of domestic demand and economy transition,but also give rise to serious economic,social and political problems. It will make sense to study how to narrow income distribution gap while maintaining economy growth.
On the bassi of the relationship between finance development and economy growth, this article will expand its scope to the level of studying income distribution and analyzing the income distribution effect. Through analyzing the function of the finance system, this essay summarizes four mechanisms, through which the finance development can realize its income distribution effect. These four mechanisms are growth mechanism, threshold mechanism, on-equilibrium mechanism and technique progress mechanism. The practice shows that, in china the development of finance has expanded the overall income distribution gap and the rural-urban income distribution gap, but it has different impact on regional income distribution gap. In the east region and the southeast region, either the expansion of the scale of finance development or the increase of finance development efficiency will evidently decrease the disparity of income distribution in the east region. In the central and west region, the enlargement of the scale of the finance development will sharply increase the disparity of income distribution. In the meantime, promoting the efficiency of finance development will have an important impact on short-term disparity of income distribution. The survey on rural financial development shows that in China rural financial development will obviously expand the income distribution gap within rural areas and it will also evidently extend the disparity of rural-urban income distribution. This is because that large amount of rural financial resources flow to the urban areas and that rural financial resource is not easily available to everybody.
Firstly, this article collates the finance development theory and the income distribution theory. And it analyses the mechanisms that influencing income distribution, including mechanism of economic increase, threshold mechanism, non-equilibrium mechanism and finally mechanism of technique development.These four mechanism will produce the welfare distribution effect.
Secondly, by using time series data and the empirical analysis method, this article studies national finance development's impact on the overall income distribution effect, the study shows that by using financial interrelation ratio to measure the variables,we can find that there exists an inverted-shaped U model relationship between the level of financial development and the income distribution gap.Consequently,the government should establish policies to promote the financial development both in the central and west region and the rural areas. By doing that we can narrow the income distribution gap between regions and shrink the rural-urban disparity of income distribution. We can also achieve harmonious development between regions and realize harmonious development between the rural and the urban.
Thirdly, on the basis of VAR model, we use the empirical method to study financial development's rural-urban income distribution effect. The study shows that the scale of finance development is the most important factor that influences the rural-urban income gap, next are GDP per capita and the urbanization level. However, what contributes the least is the efficiency of finance development, implying that it has little impact on the change of rural-urban income gap.
Fourthly, this article analyses the regional income distribution effect of China's finance development. The results show that the east region is already in the second half of the Kuznets inverted U curve. We can also find that the central region is in the middle part of this curve while the west region is in the first half of this curve.we can draw the conclusion that finance development will shrink the income gap in the east region, expand that of the west region and intensify the disparity of income distribution in the west region.
Nextly, this essay studies rural financial development's inner income distribution effect among rural areas and rural financial development's rural-urban income distribution effect. The results indicate that the financial development in the east region will impose an active impact on reducing income distribution gap between rural areas. Financial development in the central and west region presents the same characteristics in the following aspects, such as rural loans, rural deposits and the ratio of converting rural deposits to rural loans. The enhancement of these factors will respectively expand the local rural income gap to different degree. Insead of decreasing rural-urban income gap, the increase of rural financial scale and the promotion of the rural financial efficiency enlarge the gap.
Finally, apart from summarizing the related theories, this article recommends some policies. We should reform the financial system to assure the fairness of financial development's income distribution effect. It is recommended to establish a solid financial system to promote economic growth, narrow income distribution gap and realize the win-win situation between economic growth and fair income distribution. And by doing that we can also promote the equilibrium deployment of financial resources among regions as well as between the rural areas and the urban areas. Through establishing a solid financial system, we can also realize the widening of financial development and cut down the threshold of finance services so that more people can enjoy the benefits of financial liberalization. Besides, we should establish a multilayered rural financial system with wide coverage and sustainable easy accesses and put more emphasis on the three dimension rural issues.we should also encourage private capitals to go into rural financial market.In order to heighten the confidence and courage in servicing the three dimension rural issues, we should further improve the development of rural micro-financial institutions, which are represented by village banks, the micro loan companies and rural mutual financial cooperatives.
本文在金融发展与经济增长关系的基础上将研究拓展到收入分配层面,分析研究金融发展的收入分配效应。本文通过分析金融体系在经济中的功能,总结了金融发展实现其对收入的分配效应主要通过四种机制：增长机制、门槛机制、非均衡机制和技术进步机制,并从总体、城乡、区域层面实证分析了金融发展的收入分配效应。实证结果表明,中国金融发展扩大了总体和城乡收入分配差距,但对区域收入分配差距的影响具有不同的效果。东部地区和东北地区无论是金融发展规模的扩大还是金融发展效率的提升都会显著降低东部地区的收入分配的不平等性；中西部地区的金融发展规模的提高会显著拉大区域内的收入分配的不平等性,而西部地区金融发展效率的提升对于短期收入分配的不平等性具有重要作用。对农村金融发展的收入分配效应的研究表明,中国农村金融发展对农村内部收入分配差距以及城乡之间收入差距都具有明显的扩大作用,其原因在于农村金融资源大量流向城市和农村金融资源缺乏普惠性。
首先,本文在对金融发展理论和收入分配理论进行了梳理,理论层面分析了金融发展影响收入分配的机制,其中包括金融发展的经济增长机制、金融发展的门槛机制、金融发展的非均衡机制和金融发展的技术进步机制,这四大机制实现了金融在促进经济增长的过程中实现了对收入的分配效应。
其次,利用时间序列数据对全国层而的金融发展对总体收入分配效应的影响进行了实证分析。研究表明,以金融相关率衡量的金融发展水平与收入分配差距之间存在倒“U”型关系,因此政府应制定政策推动中西部地区和农村地区金融发展,引导金融资源向中西部地区和广大农村地区流动,以此缩小地区之间以及城乡之间的收入分配差距,实现全国地区之间以及城乡之间的和谐发展。
其次,通过基于SVAR模型的实证分析的金融发展的城乡收入分配效应。研究表明,金融发展规模是影响城乡收入差距的最主要因素；人均GDP和城市化水平对城乡收入差距变化的影响次之,而金融发展效率对城乡收入差距变化的贡献度是最小的,说明金融发展效率对城乡收入差距变化的影响不大。
其次,对中国金融发展的区域收入分配效应进行了分析。结果表明,东部地区已经处于库兹涅茨倒“U”曲线的后半段,而中部地区处于该曲线的中间段,西部地区目前还处于该曲线的前半段。即金融发展会缩小东部地区的收入差距,.拉大中西部地区的收入分配差距,加剧该地区的收入分配的不平等。
再次,分析研究了中国农村金融发J展的内部收入分配效应和城乡收入分配效应。结果表明,东部地区农村金融发展对农村内部收入分配差距的缩小具有积极作用；中、西部地区农村金融的发展呈现出相同的特征,无论是农村存款、农村贷款还是存款转化贷款的比率,它们的提高都会不同程度的扩大本地区的农村居民收入关距。农村金融规模的增加和效率的提高并没有缩小城乡收入差距,相反却是拉讧大了城乡收入差距。
最后,本文在总结相关结论的基础上,给出了政策建议。应通过对金触体制和金融体系的进一步改革,使金融发展对收入的分配更体现公平性。通过建立良好的金融体系,促进经济增长缩小收入分配差距,实现经济增长与分配公平的双赢入性；推动金融资源在区域间、城乡间的均衡配置；实现金融发展的广化效应,降低金融服务的门槛效应,是更多人享受金融自由化带来的收益；建立健全多层次、广覆盖、可持续的普惠性农村金融体系,加大对“三农”的支持力度,鼓励民间资本积极进入农村金融市场,进一步完善和发展以村镇银行、小额贷款公司和资金互助社为代表的农村小微型金融机构,增强其服务于“三农”的信心和力量。
It has been30years since china's reform and open policy,during which period China's economy has maintained a average yearly growth rate of more than9.8percent and China's economy has exceeded Japan to be the world's second largest economic entities which is second only to the USA.However,what companies the high-speed economic growth is problems such as continuous expansion of disparity of income distribution,rapid expansion of income gap between the rural and the urban,as well as among different districts and different social classes. According to the World Bank's survey, China's Gini coefficient has rose from0.32in1980to0.477in2001, surpassing0.4which is internationally acknowledged as the alert line. China's Gini coefficient rank85in120countries, which is approaching to the level of some Latin American countries and African countries with deteriorating income distribution situation.The rural-urban income gap is particularly obvious which grew from1.8percent in1980to3.36percent in2008.Continous disparity of income distribution will not only do harm to china's expansion of domestic demand and economy transition,but also give rise to serious economic,social and political problems. It will make sense to study how to narrow income distribution gap while maintaining economy growth.
On the bassi of the relationship between finance development and economy growth, this article will expand its scope to the level of studying income distribution and analyzing the income distribution effect. Through analyzing the function of the finance system, this essay summarizes four mechanisms, through which the finance development can realize its income distribution effect. These four mechanisms are growth mechanism, threshold mechanism, on-equilibrium mechanism and technique progress mechanism. The practice shows that, in china the development of finance has expanded the overall income distribution gap and the rural-urban income distribution gap, but it has different impact on regional income distribution gap. In the east region and the southeast region, either the expansion of the scale of finance development or the increase of finance development efficiency will evidently decrease the disparity of income distribution in the east region. In the central and west region, the enlargement of the scale of the finance development will sharply increase the disparity of income distribution. In the meantime, promoting the efficiency of finance development will have an important impact on short-term disparity of income distribution. The survey on rural financial development shows that in China rural financial development will obviously expand the income distribution gap within rural areas and it will also evidently extend the disparity of rural-urban income distribution. This is because that large amount of rural financial resources flow to the urban areas and that rural financial resource is not easily available to everybody.
Firstly, this article collates the finance development theory and the income distribution theory. And it analyses the mechanisms that influencing income distribution, including mechanism of economic increase, threshold mechanism, non-equilibrium mechanism and finally mechanism of technique development.These four mechanism will produce the welfare distribution effect.
Secondly, by using time series data and the empirical analysis method, this article studies national finance development's impact on the overall income distribution effect, the study shows that by using financial interrelation ratio to measure the variables,we can find that there exists an inverted-shaped U model relationship between the level of financial development and the income distribution gap.Consequently,the government should establish policies to promote the financial development both in the central and west region and the rural areas. By doing that we can narrow the income distribution gap between regions and shrink the rural-urban disparity of income distribution. We can also achieve harmonious development between regions and realize harmonious development between the rural and the urban.
Thirdly, on the basis of VAR model, we use the empirical method to study financial development's rural-urban income distribution effect. The study shows that the scale of finance development is the most important factor that influences the rural-urban income gap, next are GDP per capita and the urbanization level. However, what contributes the least is the efficiency of finance development, implying that it has little impact on the change of rural-urban income gap.
Fourthly, this article analyses the regional income distribution effect of China's finance development. The results show that the east region is already in the second half of the Kuznets inverted U curve. We can also find that the central region is in the middle part of this curve while the west region is in the first half of this curve.we can draw the conclusion that finance development will shrink the income gap in the east region, expand that of the west region and intensify the disparity of income distribution in the west region.
Nextly, this essay studies rural financial development's inner income distribution effect among rural areas and rural financial development's rural-urban income distribution effect. The results indicate that the financial development in the east region will impose an active impact on reducing income distribution gap between rural areas. Financial development in the central and west region presents the same characteristics in the following aspects, such as rural loans, rural deposits and the ratio of converting rural deposits to rural loans. The enhancement of these factors will respectively expand the local rural income gap to different degree. Insead of decreasing rural-urban income gap, the increase of rural financial scale and the promotion of the rural financial efficiency enlarge the gap.
Finally, apart from summarizing the related theories, this article recommends some policies. We should reform the financial system to assure the fairness of financial development's income distribution effect. It is recommended to establish a solid financial system to promote economic growth, narrow income distribution gap and realize the win-win situation between economic growth and fair income distribution. And by doing that we can also promote the equilibrium deployment of financial resources among regions as well as between the rural areas and the urban areas. Through establishing a solid financial system, we can also realize the widening of financial development and cut down the threshold of finance services so that more people can enjoy the benefits of financial liberalization. Besides, we should establish a multilayered rural financial system with wide coverage and sustainable easy accesses and put more emphasis on the three dimension rural issues.we should also encourage private capitals to go into rural financial market.In order to heighten the confidence and courage in servicing the three dimension rural issues, we should further improve the development of rural micro-financial institutions, which are represented by village banks, the micro loan companies and rural mutual financial cooperatives.
引文
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