房地产项目风险可拓分析及风险文化管理研究
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摘要
房地产投资是一项高收益与高风险并存的投资活动。我国房地产市场起步较晚,政策法规不健全,管理者风险意识淡薄,风险管理水平比较低,近几年国家对房地产业的宏观调控力度不断加大,受08年次贷危机引发的金融危机影响,房地产开发面临着更大的风险。因此,深入研究房地产项目的风险管理有着重要的现实意义。
本文结合建设部科技项目“建设工程全过程全寿命安全风险管理的方法与案例研究”,将可拓工程方法引入到房地产项目风险管理中,尝试提供一套切实可行的房地产项目风险分析和防范的方法。论文首先介绍了房地产项目风险管理的基本理论,从风险识别、风险评估和风险防范对策等过程介绍风险管理程序,并剖析了当前房地产项目风险管理中存在的问题。其次介绍了可拓工程学基本理论,并分析了选取可拓工程方法来解决房地产项目风险管理问题的优势。再次对房地产项目风险进行可拓分析,先将房地产项目全过程分为投资决策、前期准备、建设、租售四个阶段,利用可拓识别方法对各阶段的风险进行识别,并建立风险评估指标体系;再根据物元模型和可拓集合论,将风险从发生概率、损失、预测性和管理性四个方面全面考虑,建立房地产项目的风险可拓评估模型,同时考虑到风险因素的均衡性,结合变权理论与可拓初等关联函数,构建可拓变权方法确定指标权重。再次研究了房地产项目的风险文化管理,尝试从文化建设的角度来防范房地产项目中的风险;最后对邯郸市义商国际项目进行实例分析,结果表明该方法切实可行,能够提高房地产企业的投资决策水平。
Real estate investment is an activity with high-income and high-risk. In our country real estate market develops imperfectly, policies and regulations are very unsound, so the managers are lack of risk awareness and the risk management levels are rather low. In recent years the state's macro-control to real estate industry have stepped up, while financial crisis caused by prime crisis broke out in 2008,which causes that the risks in real estate project increase greatly .Therefore, the study on risk management of real estate projects has important practical significance.
Based on the project of“method and case research of security risk management in total life cycle of construction project”financed by ministry of construction, the paper introduces extension engineering method into risk management and explores a method system about risk analysis and prevention. Firstly the paper introduces the basic theory on risk management of real estate project, and analyzes the problem existing in risk management of real estate projects. Secondly the paper describes basic theory on extenics, and then analyzes its advantages. Thirdly the paper divides real estate project into investment decision-making, preparation, construction and sale or leasing four stages, and analyzes the risk in every stage based on extension identification method. After that, considering the probability, losses, predictability and manageability of risk factors, the paper creativity constructs risk assessment model based on matter-element model and extension set theory. At the same time, taking into account the balance of risk factors, the paper builds extension variable weights method. Fourthly the paper studies the risk culture in real estate project to prevent the risks. Finally, the paper takes yishang international project in Handan city as an example, which proves the model is feasible, also can improve the level of investment decision-making.
本文结合建设部科技项目“建设工程全过程全寿命安全风险管理的方法与案例研究”,将可拓工程方法引入到房地产项目风险管理中,尝试提供一套切实可行的房地产项目风险分析和防范的方法。论文首先介绍了房地产项目风险管理的基本理论,从风险识别、风险评估和风险防范对策等过程介绍风险管理程序,并剖析了当前房地产项目风险管理中存在的问题。其次介绍了可拓工程学基本理论,并分析了选取可拓工程方法来解决房地产项目风险管理问题的优势。再次对房地产项目风险进行可拓分析,先将房地产项目全过程分为投资决策、前期准备、建设、租售四个阶段,利用可拓识别方法对各阶段的风险进行识别,并建立风险评估指标体系;再根据物元模型和可拓集合论,将风险从发生概率、损失、预测性和管理性四个方面全面考虑,建立房地产项目的风险可拓评估模型,同时考虑到风险因素的均衡性,结合变权理论与可拓初等关联函数,构建可拓变权方法确定指标权重。再次研究了房地产项目的风险文化管理,尝试从文化建设的角度来防范房地产项目中的风险;最后对邯郸市义商国际项目进行实例分析,结果表明该方法切实可行,能够提高房地产企业的投资决策水平。
Real estate investment is an activity with high-income and high-risk. In our country real estate market develops imperfectly, policies and regulations are very unsound, so the managers are lack of risk awareness and the risk management levels are rather low. In recent years the state's macro-control to real estate industry have stepped up, while financial crisis caused by prime crisis broke out in 2008,which causes that the risks in real estate project increase greatly .Therefore, the study on risk management of real estate projects has important practical significance.
Based on the project of“method and case research of security risk management in total life cycle of construction project”financed by ministry of construction, the paper introduces extension engineering method into risk management and explores a method system about risk analysis and prevention. Firstly the paper introduces the basic theory on risk management of real estate project, and analyzes the problem existing in risk management of real estate projects. Secondly the paper describes basic theory on extenics, and then analyzes its advantages. Thirdly the paper divides real estate project into investment decision-making, preparation, construction and sale or leasing four stages, and analyzes the risk in every stage based on extension identification method. After that, considering the probability, losses, predictability and manageability of risk factors, the paper creativity constructs risk assessment model based on matter-element model and extension set theory. At the same time, taking into account the balance of risk factors, the paper builds extension variable weights method. Fourthly the paper studies the risk culture in real estate project to prevent the risks. Finally, the paper takes yishang international project in Handan city as an example, which proves the model is feasible, also can improve the level of investment decision-making.
引文
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[9] Karina Knight,Amana Robinson. Use of Fuzzy Logic for Predicting Design Cost Overruns on Building Projects[J],Journal of construction engineering and management,2002,(4):503~512
[10] Gary P. Taylor, William E. Endsley .The Full Spectrum of Real Estate Risk Analysis [J]. The Appraisal Journal, 2004, 15(4):370~375
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[14] Alfredo delcano. Integrated Methodology for Project Risk Management [J].Journal of Construction engineering and management, 2006, (4):473~485
[15] Pami Dua. Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR framework [J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2009,(3):30~34
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[25] Guo Zhanglin,Xiao Meidan,Zhang Yugeng.The Multilevel Gray Evaluation of Investing Risk in Real Estate Project(A).Proceedings of 2005 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management vol.1[C], Shenyang(CN),2005.448~451
[26]张俊玲,马苓,杨占昌.大型房地产投资项目风险评价的人工神经网络模型研究[J].天津职业大学学报,2005,14(6):37~40
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