含分布式电源的配电系统电能质量概率评估
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摘要
随着新能源特别是可再生能源的开发利用,使得当今电力系统配电网中分布式电源渗透率日益提高并由此带来了许多新的问题,尤其是令配电网电能质量的影响因素变得更加复杂,这其中以风力发电和太阳能光伏发电为代表的间歇性功率输出造成的问题最为突出。因此,采用更为科学合理的方法来有效评估电能质量成为必须认真研究的问题。
本论文通过考虑分布式电源功率输出的随机特性对电能质量的影响,建立了电能质量问题的概率评估模型。研究内容以及具体工作包含以下方面：
第一,配电系统中分布式电源功率输出的随机性以及负荷的随机变化导致需要引入概率潮流(Probabilistic Load Flow, PLF)的思想来确定出反映节点电压的相关概率特征数值。在重点研究分析求解概率潮流的点估计法基础上,提出了更为合理、全面的改进型2n点估计法求解概率潮流,得到节点电压的各阶矩值。又采用Cornish-Fisher级数展开获取节电压的概率密度。通过算例计算验证了该评估方案的合理及有效性。
第二,针对配电系统常规的三相不平衡以及分布式电源接入而产生的新问题,本文在重点分析讨论配电系统三相不平衡评估的状态估计法的基础上,提出了基于概率模型的配电系统状态估计法,并就其目标函数、伪测量量的概念及构造技术、随机负荷及分布式电源的联合概率模型进行了研究,得出了可行的模型公式。基于所提出的模型通过标准算例进行了计算验证。结果表明,本文提出的方法能够较好地应用于含分布式电源的配电系统三相不平衡问题的评估,所得出的结论对可再生能源接入电力系统及广泛发展均具有指导意义。
第三,在对现有的配电网谐波电流评估方法进行分析评价的基础上,将主要应用于经济学领域研究随机过程模型的参数估计方法引入谐波电流评估问题的研究,构建了基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗法(Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC)的概率评估模型,并就抽样方法、求解方法、算法流程等进行了研究,给出了方法的数学表达、具体解法以及相关模型,提供了含有使用新能源的分布式电源接入的配电网谐波电流评价问题的数学模型及解决问题的流程,解决了含分布式电源的配电网谐波电流的评估问题。同时,文中采用较为典型的5次与7次谐波数据,充分考虑了不同时段里线性负荷与非线性负荷的不同比例带来的影响,使得结果更加全面客观,更接近实际配电网情况。
最后,在分析讨论电能质量综合评估概念及方法,并充分分析电能质量综合评估思路的基础上,提出了基于样本集约化的熵权赋值法电能质量综合评估方法。通过引入投影寻踪算法解决了复杂样本的规格整合问题,通过应用信息熵的概念及熵权原理,对样本规整基础上的权重分配修正。与已有的电能质量综合评估方法相比较,该方法更加简捷方便、更加科学实用。本文结合实例,将其应用到含分布式电源配电系统电能质量综合评估当中,应用特征值赋权法,实现了电能质量的等级评估。并对使用可再生能源的分布式电源接入系统提出了意见和建议。
With the exploitation and application of renewable energy resources, it exits a number of new problems with the high penetration of distributed generators (DGs) in the current distribution network of the power system, especially within the issue of power qualities. It is significanlty serious performed by the intermittent output generation such as wind power and photovotalic (PV) arrays. Therefore, utilizing more scientific and rational methodology to evaluate the power quality indices effectively becomes the essetial subject to be carefully studied.
In this paper, the probabilistic evaluation model for power qulities via considering the characteristic of stochastic power output by DGs. The content in very detail will be including the following aspects:
First, the stochastic power output by DGs and variation of load power makes the concept of probabilistic load flow (PLF) need to be introduced in inflecting the reletive statistical performance data for nodal votage. Basd on the emphasis and analysis of2n point estimate method for PLF solutions, the more rational and exaustive solution-the modified2n point estimate method is proposed to obtain the each moment value of nodal voltages. Combining with the Cornish-Fisher series expansion, the probabilisty desity function (PDF) of nodal voltages will be derived. The case analysis will be studied to verify the rationality and effect of the proposed evaluation algorithm.
Second, poiting at the regular three-phase unbalance and the impact by the connection of DGs in the distribution system, the evaluation of distribution system three phase voltage unbalance factor (VUF) will be emphasized, based on the analysis of the conventional distribution system state estimation (DSSE) method. In this paper, the probabilistic model-based DSSE is proposed. Meanwhile, the feasible model calculation will be derived via the reaserch of object function, concept and contruction of pseudo-measurement, and the correlative probabilistic distribution. Besides, the detailed solution of DSSE is deducted, combining with the case study. The results implys the fitness of the VUF evaluation and the conclusion is also significant for the guidness of the connection of DGs into distribution systems.
Third, based on the reaserching area of the harmonic current evaluation, the algorithm primarily applied in the ecnomic model for the paramter estimation will be used. The constrution of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is introduced into the probabilistic evalution models. Moreover, the reaserch of sampling, solving, and processing approach will be studied in order to derive the relative model of the mathematical expression for the harmonic issue evalution. Meanwhile, the model will be verified by applying the typical5th and7th harmonic data with considering the influence of proporation of linear and nonlinear loads in different periods. The result is more comprehensive and close to the real distribution system.
In the end, by analyzing the concept and method of comprehensive evaluation and the relative courses, a new method named sample set centralized constraint and entropy weight is proposed in this paper. By utilizing the projection pursuit to solve the complicated data format integration issue and the entropy and entropy weight principle, the method is applied to modify the weight of sample set. Comparing with the current evaluation method, this approach is more simple and convinient to use. Besides, the evaluation process for the practise issue is reaserched and verified with the case study. After that, by applying the eigenvalue weighted method, the power quality grade is classified, which is also sophisticated to connection of renewable energy-based DGs to distribution system, providing with suggestions and advises.
本论文通过考虑分布式电源功率输出的随机特性对电能质量的影响,建立了电能质量问题的概率评估模型。研究内容以及具体工作包含以下方面：
第一,配电系统中分布式电源功率输出的随机性以及负荷的随机变化导致需要引入概率潮流(Probabilistic Load Flow, PLF)的思想来确定出反映节点电压的相关概率特征数值。在重点研究分析求解概率潮流的点估计法基础上,提出了更为合理、全面的改进型2n点估计法求解概率潮流,得到节点电压的各阶矩值。又采用Cornish-Fisher级数展开获取节电压的概率密度。通过算例计算验证了该评估方案的合理及有效性。
第二,针对配电系统常规的三相不平衡以及分布式电源接入而产生的新问题,本文在重点分析讨论配电系统三相不平衡评估的状态估计法的基础上,提出了基于概率模型的配电系统状态估计法,并就其目标函数、伪测量量的概念及构造技术、随机负荷及分布式电源的联合概率模型进行了研究,得出了可行的模型公式。基于所提出的模型通过标准算例进行了计算验证。结果表明,本文提出的方法能够较好地应用于含分布式电源的配电系统三相不平衡问题的评估,所得出的结论对可再生能源接入电力系统及广泛发展均具有指导意义。
第三,在对现有的配电网谐波电流评估方法进行分析评价的基础上,将主要应用于经济学领域研究随机过程模型的参数估计方法引入谐波电流评估问题的研究,构建了基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗法(Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC)的概率评估模型,并就抽样方法、求解方法、算法流程等进行了研究,给出了方法的数学表达、具体解法以及相关模型,提供了含有使用新能源的分布式电源接入的配电网谐波电流评价问题的数学模型及解决问题的流程,解决了含分布式电源的配电网谐波电流的评估问题。同时,文中采用较为典型的5次与7次谐波数据,充分考虑了不同时段里线性负荷与非线性负荷的不同比例带来的影响,使得结果更加全面客观,更接近实际配电网情况。
最后,在分析讨论电能质量综合评估概念及方法,并充分分析电能质量综合评估思路的基础上,提出了基于样本集约化的熵权赋值法电能质量综合评估方法。通过引入投影寻踪算法解决了复杂样本的规格整合问题,通过应用信息熵的概念及熵权原理,对样本规整基础上的权重分配修正。与已有的电能质量综合评估方法相比较,该方法更加简捷方便、更加科学实用。本文结合实例,将其应用到含分布式电源配电系统电能质量综合评估当中,应用特征值赋权法,实现了电能质量的等级评估。并对使用可再生能源的分布式电源接入系统提出了意见和建议。
With the exploitation and application of renewable energy resources, it exits a number of new problems with the high penetration of distributed generators (DGs) in the current distribution network of the power system, especially within the issue of power qualities. It is significanlty serious performed by the intermittent output generation such as wind power and photovotalic (PV) arrays. Therefore, utilizing more scientific and rational methodology to evaluate the power quality indices effectively becomes the essetial subject to be carefully studied.
In this paper, the probabilistic evaluation model for power qulities via considering the characteristic of stochastic power output by DGs. The content in very detail will be including the following aspects:
First, the stochastic power output by DGs and variation of load power makes the concept of probabilistic load flow (PLF) need to be introduced in inflecting the reletive statistical performance data for nodal votage. Basd on the emphasis and analysis of2n point estimate method for PLF solutions, the more rational and exaustive solution-the modified2n point estimate method is proposed to obtain the each moment value of nodal voltages. Combining with the Cornish-Fisher series expansion, the probabilisty desity function (PDF) of nodal voltages will be derived. The case analysis will be studied to verify the rationality and effect of the proposed evaluation algorithm.
Second, poiting at the regular three-phase unbalance and the impact by the connection of DGs in the distribution system, the evaluation of distribution system three phase voltage unbalance factor (VUF) will be emphasized, based on the analysis of the conventional distribution system state estimation (DSSE) method. In this paper, the probabilistic model-based DSSE is proposed. Meanwhile, the feasible model calculation will be derived via the reaserch of object function, concept and contruction of pseudo-measurement, and the correlative probabilistic distribution. Besides, the detailed solution of DSSE is deducted, combining with the case study. The results implys the fitness of the VUF evaluation and the conclusion is also significant for the guidness of the connection of DGs into distribution systems.
Third, based on the reaserching area of the harmonic current evaluation, the algorithm primarily applied in the ecnomic model for the paramter estimation will be used. The constrution of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is introduced into the probabilistic evalution models. Moreover, the reaserch of sampling, solving, and processing approach will be studied in order to derive the relative model of the mathematical expression for the harmonic issue evalution. Meanwhile, the model will be verified by applying the typical5th and7th harmonic data with considering the influence of proporation of linear and nonlinear loads in different periods. The result is more comprehensive and close to the real distribution system.
In the end, by analyzing the concept and method of comprehensive evaluation and the relative courses, a new method named sample set centralized constraint and entropy weight is proposed in this paper. By utilizing the projection pursuit to solve the complicated data format integration issue and the entropy and entropy weight principle, the method is applied to modify the weight of sample set. Comparing with the current evaluation method, this approach is more simple and convinient to use. Besides, the evaluation process for the practise issue is reaserched and verified with the case study. After that, by applying the eigenvalue weighted method, the power quality grade is classified, which is also sophisticated to connection of renewable energy-based DGs to distribution system, providing with suggestions and advises.
引文
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