面向SCCW的核电装备制造企业供应风险评估与控制研究
|
摘要
目前,世界各国纷纷致力于核能发电,以弥补传统电力能源供应的不足。中国核电工业正处于快速的起步发展阶段,由于技术能力及管理经验匮乏,已面临严重的物资供应危机:尚未实现全部装备的自主研制,部分核心材料及设备面临跨国采购、过度依赖于进口的供应难题;同时,核电装备的制造挑战了国内重型装备制造企业的能力极限,又因为核电装备制造任务尚不是此类企业的主营业务,在供应商合作能力与合作意愿不足的双重作用下,物资供应质量不合格及交货延迟事件屡有发生,而核电装备制造企业尚未提出一套行之有效的供应风险管理控制体系。因此,核电装备制造企业的供应风险评估与控制不仅仅是一个理论问题,更是一个亟待解决的现实问题。
核电装备制造企业不同类型供应商的技术、质量保证能力与合作意愿具有显著的差别,并对供应风险产生重要的影响,因此,本文在梳理文献的基础上首先从核电装备制造及其供应商的特征出发,提出了供求双方合作能力与合作意愿维度下供应商分类(SCCW)的理论模型,该模型将供应商划分为供方主导型、战略型、需方主导型和松散型四类。为了验证理论模型的科学性、提出供应商分类的定量方法,本文应用企业调研和数据挖掘工具对核电装备制造企业的样本供应商进行系统聚类。聚类分析的结果显示,合作能力与合作意愿分类维度的各个分解测度指标在四类供应商之间具有显著的差异,其组间差异亦符合理论模型的分析,供应商分类理论模型及其测度体系的科学性得以验证。
其次,对影响供应风险的外部及内部因素进行了分析。以组织与外部环境的适应性及委托代理理论分析了核电装备制造企业供应风险的外部和内部成因。在此基础上,进一步挖掘供应风险的外部及内部相关因素:从双方的合作能力与合作意愿出发,综合考虑外部环境的影响,建立不同因素与供应风险存在相关性的一系列理论假设;运用企业调研和数据挖掘的方法验证理论假设、识别供应风险的相关因素;针对与SCCW不同类型供应商合作的特点,分析影响四类供求合作供应风险的关键因素,确定面向SCCW不同类型供应商供应风险控制的重点。
再次,基于供应商分类和供应风险相关因素识别的研究结果,整合负载供应商类别特征的虚拟变量和供应风险的影响因素作为指标体系,运用支持向量机(SVM)和决策树(DT)等数据挖掘方法构建了面向SCCW不同类型供应商供应风险的评估模型。更进一步以误差平方和最小化的原则求解组合系数,构建了基于SVM与DT的供应风险线性组合评估模型。评价结果表明,上述模型的系统误差均比较小,但线性组合模型显现了最高的评估精度和最好的稳定性,评估效果优于独立的SVM和DT模型。
最后,本文依托供应风险相关因素的识别和风险评估模型的研究结论,从系统观的视角审视供求合作与供应风险问题,将核电装备制造企业与供应商的“一对一”合作视为一个供求合作系统,在刻画系统要素及特征的基础上,深入分析其与SCCW四类供应商合作系统构建、系统运行及终止合作各个阶段的关键路径及其风险控制点,提出了相应的供应风险控制策略。
Nowadays,many countries were committed to nuclear power and cover the shortage of traditional energy supply. China's nuclear industry is in the early stage of development , by the shortage of technological and management experience, which faced the severe supply risk: china has not achieved self-manufacture fully,the key equipment dependent on imports, at the same time, nuclear power equipment manufacturing pose a challenge to the capability limit of domestic manufacturing enterprise, when the nuclear power equipments are not the primary business of them, manufacturing enterprises always in-cooperative. Therefore, it is not only a theoretical issue, but a real problem to research how to predict and control the supply risk.
In nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry, the quality assurance abilities, techniques, and the willingness are different between types of nuclear power equipment manufacturing supplier, and this significant difference has important influence on supply risk. Therefore, firstly, on the basis of analyzing literature and nuclear power equipment manufacturing and supplier's characteristic, this paper puts forward the four-classification theoretical model of suppliers classification under dimensions on capability and willingness (SCCW). I.e. suppliers oriented, strategic, loose and demanders oriented. In order to verify the theoretical model and provide a quantitative method of supplier classification, clustering analysis was used to analyze the research data. Clustering results show that all indexes have significant difference between four kinds of suppliers, and the difference between four kinds of suppliers accorded with theoretical model were analyzed.
Secondly, the influence factors of supply risk from internal and external ware analyzed. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the internal and external supply risk factors ware discussed further, theoretical assumptions ware established about the correlation between all these factors and supply risk. Then, data mining tools ware use to verify the theoretical assumptions. Furthermore, the influence of indexes and key points of risk controlling between four kinds were discussed.
Thirdly, according to the research results above, using the influence factors of supply risk and virtual variable of suppliers’category, this paper established Assessmentmodels respectively based on support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). Furthermore, according to the principle of least sum of error squares, this paper put forward the combined Assessmentmodel based on SVM and DT. The forecasting results of three Assessmentmodels show that the Assessmentaccuracy of all three models was higher, and the system error was smaller, and the evaluation parameters of combined model are better than which of single SVM model and DT model.
Finally, based on the supplier classification, identification of risk factors and Assessmentof risk degree, this paper analyzed the critical path and key points in system construction, system operation and system dying. Moreover, this paper put forwarded the control approaches according to the key points of risk controlling.
核电装备制造企业不同类型供应商的技术、质量保证能力与合作意愿具有显著的差别,并对供应风险产生重要的影响,因此,本文在梳理文献的基础上首先从核电装备制造及其供应商的特征出发,提出了供求双方合作能力与合作意愿维度下供应商分类(SCCW)的理论模型,该模型将供应商划分为供方主导型、战略型、需方主导型和松散型四类。为了验证理论模型的科学性、提出供应商分类的定量方法,本文应用企业调研和数据挖掘工具对核电装备制造企业的样本供应商进行系统聚类。聚类分析的结果显示,合作能力与合作意愿分类维度的各个分解测度指标在四类供应商之间具有显著的差异,其组间差异亦符合理论模型的分析,供应商分类理论模型及其测度体系的科学性得以验证。
其次,对影响供应风险的外部及内部因素进行了分析。以组织与外部环境的适应性及委托代理理论分析了核电装备制造企业供应风险的外部和内部成因。在此基础上,进一步挖掘供应风险的外部及内部相关因素:从双方的合作能力与合作意愿出发,综合考虑外部环境的影响,建立不同因素与供应风险存在相关性的一系列理论假设;运用企业调研和数据挖掘的方法验证理论假设、识别供应风险的相关因素;针对与SCCW不同类型供应商合作的特点,分析影响四类供求合作供应风险的关键因素,确定面向SCCW不同类型供应商供应风险控制的重点。
再次,基于供应商分类和供应风险相关因素识别的研究结果,整合负载供应商类别特征的虚拟变量和供应风险的影响因素作为指标体系,运用支持向量机(SVM)和决策树(DT)等数据挖掘方法构建了面向SCCW不同类型供应商供应风险的评估模型。更进一步以误差平方和最小化的原则求解组合系数,构建了基于SVM与DT的供应风险线性组合评估模型。评价结果表明,上述模型的系统误差均比较小,但线性组合模型显现了最高的评估精度和最好的稳定性,评估效果优于独立的SVM和DT模型。
最后,本文依托供应风险相关因素的识别和风险评估模型的研究结论,从系统观的视角审视供求合作与供应风险问题,将核电装备制造企业与供应商的“一对一”合作视为一个供求合作系统,在刻画系统要素及特征的基础上,深入分析其与SCCW四类供应商合作系统构建、系统运行及终止合作各个阶段的关键路径及其风险控制点,提出了相应的供应风险控制策略。
Nowadays,many countries were committed to nuclear power and cover the shortage of traditional energy supply. China's nuclear industry is in the early stage of development , by the shortage of technological and management experience, which faced the severe supply risk: china has not achieved self-manufacture fully,the key equipment dependent on imports, at the same time, nuclear power equipment manufacturing pose a challenge to the capability limit of domestic manufacturing enterprise, when the nuclear power equipments are not the primary business of them, manufacturing enterprises always in-cooperative. Therefore, it is not only a theoretical issue, but a real problem to research how to predict and control the supply risk.
In nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry, the quality assurance abilities, techniques, and the willingness are different between types of nuclear power equipment manufacturing supplier, and this significant difference has important influence on supply risk. Therefore, firstly, on the basis of analyzing literature and nuclear power equipment manufacturing and supplier's characteristic, this paper puts forward the four-classification theoretical model of suppliers classification under dimensions on capability and willingness (SCCW). I.e. suppliers oriented, strategic, loose and demanders oriented. In order to verify the theoretical model and provide a quantitative method of supplier classification, clustering analysis was used to analyze the research data. Clustering results show that all indexes have significant difference between four kinds of suppliers, and the difference between four kinds of suppliers accorded with theoretical model were analyzed.
Secondly, the influence factors of supply risk from internal and external ware analyzed. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the internal and external supply risk factors ware discussed further, theoretical assumptions ware established about the correlation between all these factors and supply risk. Then, data mining tools ware use to verify the theoretical assumptions. Furthermore, the influence of indexes and key points of risk controlling between four kinds were discussed.
Thirdly, according to the research results above, using the influence factors of supply risk and virtual variable of suppliers’category, this paper established Assessmentmodels respectively based on support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). Furthermore, according to the principle of least sum of error squares, this paper put forward the combined Assessmentmodel based on SVM and DT. The forecasting results of three Assessmentmodels show that the Assessmentaccuracy of all three models was higher, and the system error was smaller, and the evaluation parameters of combined model are better than which of single SVM model and DT model.
Finally, based on the supplier classification, identification of risk factors and Assessmentof risk degree, this paper analyzed the critical path and key points in system construction, system operation and system dying. Moreover, this paper put forwarded the control approaches according to the key points of risk controlling.
引文
1李文庆.核电发达国家的严重事故管理及对中国的启示.科技管理研究.2010,(3):34~36
2王新新.新时期中国核电发展现状及对策分析研究.节能技术.2010,(1):61~63
3郭红芳,陈红.核电设备制造进度控制初步研究.一重技术.2009,(6):58~70
4叶奇蓁.中国核电发展战略研究.电网与清洁能源.2010,(26):3~6
5吴运声.浅析中国核电产业发展面临的问题.商业经济.2010,(2):52~53
6宁钟,孙薇.供应链风险管理研究评述.经济界.2009,(3):55~57
7 Hau L Lee. The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain. Sloan Management Review.2002,38(4):93~102
8 Chen. Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect. Management Science.2007,(43):546~558
9 Paulsson. Supply chain risk management. Supply Chain Risk. 2008,(2):79~96
10 S. Tang. Perspectives in supply chain risk management. Production Economics. 2008,(3):47~51
11 Chapman. Identifying and Managing Supply Chain Vulner ability. Logistics and Transport Focus. 2009,(4):59~64
12 Lindroth R, Norrman A. Supply chain risk and risk sharing instruments-an illustration from the telecommunication industry. Proceedings of the Logistics Research Network 6th Annual Conference. 2009,(12):200~210
13胡金环,周启蕾.供应链管理探讨.价值工程.2009, (3):36~37
14张仕军.基于直觉模糊关系的供应链风险评估.工业工程.2009,(6):70~72
15刘桢云,胡振邦.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险识别与评估研究.物流科技.2009,(3):110~112
16肖艳,宋辉.供应链风险来源及风险管理探讨.物流工程与管理.2009,(4):58~60
17 Chris Lonsdale, Andrew Cox. Outsourcing: The risks and rewards.Supply Management.2007,(12):45~49
18 Zsidisin. Defining Supply Risk: A Grounded Theory Approach. Proceedings from the decision sciences institute annual meeting, San Diego. 2008,(1):37~40
19 Zsidisin, Ellram.An agency theory investigation of supply risk management. Journal of Supply Chain Management.2008,(3):45~49
20刘浩华.基于供应风险的国防工业供应商选择研究.中央财经大学学报.2009,(11):67~69
21 Smetzer. The relationship of strategic purchasing of supply chain management. European Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management.2010,(23):43~51
22马士华,林勇.供应链管理.机械工业出版社.2000:65~334
23肖艳玲,王慧丽.基于层次分析法的石化企业供应商评价与分类管理.大庆石油学院学报.2007,(12):108~109
24林仁灶.制造企业的供应商分类管理.中国集体经济.2007,(11):49~50
25 Dickson. An analysis of vendor selection systems and decisions. Journal of Purchasing.1966, 2(1): 5~17
26 Clemons EK. The impact of information technology on the organization activity: The move to the middle hypothesi. Management information systems.1993,(10):9~35
27 Kumar K. Sutainable collaboration, Managing conflict and cooperation in interrogational systems. Mis-quarterly.2006,(20):279~300
28 Uzzi. Social structure and competition in inter firm networks: The paradox of embeddedness. Administrative Science Quaterly. 2007, (42):35~67
29陈实.供应链汽车零部件供应商的评价与选择.汽车工业研究.2008,(5):31~32
30曹招根.供应商评价体系的建立及实际应用.上海铁道科技. 2009,(3):12~13
31汪克夷,张爽.基于敏捷供应链的装备制造业供应商评价体系.科技与管理.2010,(1):62~64
32 Malone, Yates. Electronic markets and electronic hierarchies. Communication of the ACM.1987,(30):484~497
33 Hamel. Competition for competence and inter-partner learning within international strategic alliances. Strategic Management Journal.1991, (12):83~103
34 Baker, Robert. Relational Contracts and the Theory of the Firm. Quaterly Journal of Economics.2009,(117):39~48
35 Kropp. Transformational leadership and market orientation: Implications for the implementation of competitive strategies and business unit performance. Journal of Business Research.2009, (60):314~327
36肖建梅,黄志刚.供应商分类决策的树的构造.机电工程技术.2009,(35):79~80
37张杰,张健.基于Kraljic模型的石化企业供应商关系分类研究.财经理论与实践.2009,(3):112~113
38于昕,王道平.基于子空间聚类的供应商分类的方法研究.工业工程.2007,(5):77~78
39薛雷,陈兵.现代造船企业配套设备国外供应商的分类管理.大连海事大学学报.2008,(6):106~107
40王道平,王燕.制造型企业供应商分类模型研究.技术经济与管理研究.2010,(1):41~42
41 Dina Neiger. Supply chain risk identification with value-ocused process engineering. Operation management. 2009,(27):154~168
42 Yosef Sheffi. A comparison of stochastic and deterministic traffic assignment over congested networks. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.1981,(15):53~64
43 Lonsdale. Comparative efficiencies of domain decompositions. Parallel Computing. 2005,(12):1823~1835
44 Steele.Survey of materials selection for ceramic fuel cells II. Cathodes and anodes.Solid State Ionics.2006,(86): 1223~1234
45 Hallikas. Risk analysis and assessment in network environments: A dyadic case study. Production Economics. 2009,(78): 45~55
46 Cranfield, Paul V. Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model. Development Economics. 2010,(68): 289~307
47 Christine, Richard Brenchley. Risk in supply networks.Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management. 2009,(9):51~62
48丁伟东,刘凯.供应链风险研究.中国安全科学学报.2009,13(4): 64~66
49 Sunil Gupta. Customer Based Valuation. Interactive Marketing.2009,(23): 169~178
50 D.J. Wu, Paul R Kleindorfer. Optimal capacity expansion in the presence of capacity options.Decision Support System.2010,(40): 553~561
51 Tobias Schoenherr, Rao Tummala. Assessing supply chain risks with the analytic hierarchy process: Providing decision support for the offshoring decision by a US manufacturing company. Purchasing and Supply Management.2008,(14): 100~111
52 McCullen. Diagnosis and reduction of bullwhip in supply chains. supply chain management :An international journal.2010,(3):1964~1793
53 Guido.J.L, Micheli. Reducing the total cost of supply through risk-efficiency based supplier selection in the EPC industry. Purchasing & Supply Management.2010,(15):166~177
54 Mats Y. Svensson, Ola Bostr?m. Neck injuries in car collisions-a reviewcovering a possible injury mechanism and the development of a new rear-impact dummy.Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2009,(32):167~175
55 Harland. A high-resolution dinoflagellate cyst record from latest Holocene sediments in Kolj? Fjord, Sweden. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynologyy.2009,(128):119~141
56 Jukka Hallikas, Iris Karvonen. Risk management processes in supplier networks. Production Economics. 2010,(1):47~58
57 Clake.Virtual logistics: an introduction and Logistics management.2009, (28):486~507
58 Yang, Burns. The implications of postponement for the supply chain. Production Research.2010,(41):2075~2090
59 Asbrand.Squeeze out excess costs with supply chain solutions. Datamation. 2010, (3):62~66
60 Mitchell, Kulwant Singh. Spillback effects of expansion when product-types and firm-types differ. Management.2005,(21): 81~100
61张齐刚.浅谈供应链管理的风险规避问题.科技与管理.2001,(3):11~14
62 Ram Narasimhan. Vendor performance with supply risk: A chance-constrained DEA approach. Production Economics. 2009, (100):212~222
63 Stewart. Assessing supply risks of recycled water allocation strategies. Desalination.2010,(188):61~67
64易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究.西南交通大学博士论文.2007:45~47
65顾孟迪,雷鹏.风险管理.北京清华大学出版社.2005:70~72
66 Prater E, Biehl M. International supply chain agility, tradeoffs between flexibility and uncertainty. International Journal of Operations and Production Management. 2006,21(56):823~839
67 J. H. M. Tah, V. Carr. Towards a framework for project risk knowledgemanagement in the construction supply chain. Advances in Engineering Software.2007,(23): 835~846
68 A. Nagurney. Management of knowledge intensive systems as supernetworks: Modeling, analysis, computations, and applications Mathematical. Computer Modeling.2009,(42):397~417
69王永刚.核电站备件供应风险测度模型研究.武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版).2007,(3):72~74
70杨恩忠.风险矩阵法在玉门油田物资供应风险评估中的应用.北京石油管理干部学院学报.2008,(2):57~59
71杨恩忠.玉门油田实施内控制体系后物资供应风险管理效果评价.北京石油管理干部学院学报.2009,(1):76~79
72 Dirk Rosenau, Peter Buchholz. Assessing the long term supply risks for mineral raw materials——combined evaluation of past and future trends. Resources policy.2010,(34):161~175
73 Peter Zweifel, Susanne Bonomo. Energy security Coping with multiple supply risks.Energy Economic.2009,(17):179~183
74韩东东.供应链管理中的风险防范.工业工程.2009,(3):23~26
75杨红芬.供应链管理中的信息风险及对策分析.北京工商大学学报.2009,(2):12~14
76唐子烨,马宪国.世界石油供应风险对中国石油进口的影响.能源研究与信息.2006,(3):125~127
77马林.基于模型的供应链风险识别评估与一体化管理研究.浙江大学博士论文.2005:12~17
78魏其岩.核电行业非连续性需求的供应风险.核科学与工程.2008,(1):15~17
79 Teresa Wu, Jennifer Black. A model for inbound supply risk analysis. Computers in Industry.2010,(57):350~365
80 Micher Mougeot, Florence Naegelen. Supply-side risk adjustment and outlier payment policy. Health Economics.2009,(27):1196~1200
81 Scott C, Ellis. Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk: A behavioral view and empirical assessment. Operations Management.2010,(28):34~36
82 Alain Nada?. Wind power planning in France, from state regulation to local planning. Land Use Policy.2009,(26):744~754
83 Franco Romerio. The risks of the nuclear policies. Energy Policy.2010,(26): 239~246
84 Robert E. Multi-agent based anticipatory control for enhancing the safety and performance of Generation IV nuclear power plants during long-term semi-autonomous operation.Progress in Nuclear Energy.2009,(43):113~120
85 Tae-Ho Yoo. The role of the nuclear power generation in the Korean national economy: An input–output analysis. Progress in Nuclear Energy.2009,(51): 86~92
86法国电力公司,从起步到腾飞——法国压水堆核电厂的故事.原子能出版社翻译出版.2001,(6):23~28
87苏群,岳林康.法国的核电价格及相关政策.中国物价.2009,(3):31~36
88 Mazen M. Recent advances in nuclear power: A review. Progress in Nuclear Energy.2009,(51): 225~235
89 Yong Suk Suh. An overview of instrumentation and control systems of a Korea standard nuclear power plant: A signal interface standpoint. Nuclear Engineering and Design. 2008,(238):3508~3521
90 Bozhana. Probabilistic safety analyses developments resurgence in Bulgaria-Kozloduy nuclear power plant example. Nuclear Engineering and Design.2010,(240): 880~885
91 Carpentier. Optimal power flows. Electrical Power & Energy Systems.2009,(1): 3~15
92张乃丽.日本核电力资源开发的特点及问题.现代日本经济.2007(4):12~14
93周全之.世界核电发展概况及趋势.大众用电.2009,(4):47~49
94王永刚,张金隆.基于力量矩阵的核电设备备件供应商关系管理策略设计.物流技术.2006,(8):69~70
95周凌.坚持科学发展观,促进上海核电装备产业发展.中国核工业.2006,(1):37~39
96苏俊清.强化五项措施,发展自有技术,提升核电装备能力和工艺水平.中国核工业.2006,(10):6~8
97袭桂莲.供应链环境下核电安装企业采购管理模式的研究.对外经济贸易大学硕士论文.2007:23~31
98陈宁.上海核电装备制造业产业链的理论假设与实证分析.上海社会科学院硕士论文.2007:2~8
99胡光耀.核电设备供应商关系管理研究.北京交通大学硕士论文.2007:56~59
100隆学武.中国核电装备制造业图强.装备制造.2009,(3):32~33
101吴海荣,吴满琳.基于模块化生产的上海核电装备制造网络产业链整合.商业经济.2010,(1):108~113
102核电行业专题研究.东兴证券.2010,(3):5~6
103 Izumi Komiya, Hiroyuki Torii. Relationship between students' interests in science and attitudes toward nuclear power generation. Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2008,(50): 719~727
104 Madalina Tronea. European quest for standardisation of nuclear power reactors.Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2010,(52): 159~163
105 Roderick Hyde. Nuclear fission power for 21st century needs: Enabling technologies for large-scale, low-risk, affordable nuclear electricity. Progress in Nuclear Energy.2008,(50): 82~91
106 Carlos. Human-system interface based on speech recognition: application to a virtual nuclear power plant control desk. Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2010,(52):379~386
107 Desai, Saibal Banerjee. Reduced-complexity LQR design using canonical correlation analysis.Automatica. 1986,(22): 593~597
108 Linda Rochf'ord. New Product Development Process. Industrial Marketing Management. 1997, (26):67~83
109 George Stalk. Competing on Capabilities, The New Rule of Corporate Strategy. Harvard Business Review.1992,(3):12~15
110 Amos, Gibson D. An Exploratory Model of Agility Forum: Key Facilitators and Performance Metrics. 4th Annual Agility Forum Conference.1995:23~25
111 Berrittella. An Analytic Hierarchy Process for the Evaluation of Transport Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.2007,(1):4~8
112 Gartner, Robert J.Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms.Product Innovation Management.1993, (10): 35~52.
113 Dale, P. Shaw. Statistical process control: An examination of some common queries. International Journal of Production Economics. 1991,(22): 33~41
114 Linda Rochford. How Involving More Functional Areas with a Firm Affects the New Product. Knowledge Management.1992, (9): 287~299
115 Harland, Kjell Nordberg. A high-resolution dinoflagellate cyst record from latest Holocene sediments in Kolj? Fjord. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynologyy.2003,(128):119~141
116 Timothy S, Margulies. Risk optimization: siting of nuclear power electricity generating units. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 2004,(86) 323~325
117 Patton, Dennis M. Counselor Recognition of Transference Reactions: Reply toMallinckrodt and Carter.Counseling Psychology.1996, (43): 259~260
118 Hair. Multivariate Data Analysis with Reading. New York Macm-illan.1995,(1):152~161
119孟增辉.聚类算法研究.河北大学出版社.2005:12~15
120狄明明.聚类分析和支持向量机相结合的混合评估模型.辽宁师范大学硕士学位论文.2009:45~48
121乔克林,吕佳.方差分析与回归分析之比较.延安大学学报(自然科学版).2009,(2):34~36
122 Tom Burns, G.M. Stalker. The Organization of Innovation. Knowledge Management and Organisational Design. 1996,(1): 77~92
123杨俊.供应链风险管理理论与方法研究.武汉理工大学硕士学位论文.2005:12~14
124刘建国.企业战略风险识别、评估与动态预警研究.北京科技大学博士学位论文.2008:69~70
125晚春东,齐二石.供应链风险产生根源的理论分析.天津大学学报(社会科学版).2007,(6):491~495
126张炜,郑晓齐.寡头垄断军品市场博弈分析.系统工程.2010,28(5):54~56
127陈积志,任方旭.双寡头垄断市场下研发投入竞争的决策选择.统计与决策.2010(7):38~40
128张凯,李向阳.具有产能约束的网络型寡头垄断产业链中企业决策模型研究.中国管理科学.2009,17(1):77~79
129何艳频,孙爱峰.Spearmen等级相关系数计算公式及相互的探讨.中国现代药物应用.2007,(1):72~73
130 Young-Keun Bang. Fuzzy Time Series Prediction with Data Preprocessing and Error Compensation Based on Correlation Analysis. Proc. of the 3th Convergence and Hybrid Information Technology conference.2008:714~721
131张弢,慕德俊.一种基于风险矩阵法的信息安全风险评估模型.计算机工程与应用.2010,46(5):93~95
132柳小桐. BP神经网络输入层数据归一化研究.机械工程与自动化.2010,(3):122~124
133吕晓玲,谢邦昌.数据挖掘方法与应用.中国人民大学出版社.2009:89~91
134周振华.基于模糊积分集成向量机的商业银行信息风险评价模型研究.哈尔滨工业大学硕士学位论文.2006:34~38
135 Vapnik. The nature of statistical learning theory. NY: Springer-Verlag. 1995:12~19
136柳回春,马树元.支持向量机的研究现状.中国国象图形学报.2002, (6):618~619
137元昌安.数据挖掘原理与SPSS Clementine应用宝典.电子工业出版社.2009:10~19
138王晓云.SVM算法分析与研究.渝西学院学报.2005,(4):15~17
139田宝勇,周应强.一种新的决策树组合优化算法.辽宁大学学报(自然科学版).2010,(1):40~42
140朱参世,李响.自适应模糊决策树算法在数据流挖掘中的应用.现代电子技术.2010,(10):63~65
141王莎莎,陈安.组合评估模型在中国GDP预测中的应用.山东大学学报(理学版).2009,(10):44~46
142唐晓静,杨桂元.组合预测系数的确定方法.财贸研究.1994,(6):61~63
143周鸿飞,陈志斌.评价回归模型拟合效果的数量化方法.沈阳农业大学学报.2001,(32):455~458
144胡京爽.随机变量的多项式最佳均方误差逼近.大学数学.2005,(1):14~16
145韩兆洲,杨林涛.极差、平均差和标准差之间测度关系研究.2008,(4):4~6
146周忠眉.数据挖掘与统计理论.漳州师范学院学报(自然科学版).2006,(1):24~25
147郑长鸣.基于系统观的知识型员工绩效管理研究.西南财经大学硕士论文. 2008:10~13
148杨洋.企业组织循环结构及基本运行机理.哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文.2007:60~62
149 Towill. Explicit filters and supply chain design. Purchasing and Supply Management.2003,(9): 73~81
150刘伯超.供应链风险的特征与防范措施分析.商场现代化. 2009,(2):83~86
2王新新.新时期中国核电发展现状及对策分析研究.节能技术.2010,(1):61~63
3郭红芳,陈红.核电设备制造进度控制初步研究.一重技术.2009,(6):58~70
4叶奇蓁.中国核电发展战略研究.电网与清洁能源.2010,(26):3~6
5吴运声.浅析中国核电产业发展面临的问题.商业经济.2010,(2):52~53
6宁钟,孙薇.供应链风险管理研究评述.经济界.2009,(3):55~57
7 Hau L Lee. The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain. Sloan Management Review.2002,38(4):93~102
8 Chen. Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect. Management Science.2007,(43):546~558
9 Paulsson. Supply chain risk management. Supply Chain Risk. 2008,(2):79~96
10 S. Tang. Perspectives in supply chain risk management. Production Economics. 2008,(3):47~51
11 Chapman. Identifying and Managing Supply Chain Vulner ability. Logistics and Transport Focus. 2009,(4):59~64
12 Lindroth R, Norrman A. Supply chain risk and risk sharing instruments-an illustration from the telecommunication industry. Proceedings of the Logistics Research Network 6th Annual Conference. 2009,(12):200~210
13胡金环,周启蕾.供应链管理探讨.价值工程.2009, (3):36~37
14张仕军.基于直觉模糊关系的供应链风险评估.工业工程.2009,(6):70~72
15刘桢云,胡振邦.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险识别与评估研究.物流科技.2009,(3):110~112
16肖艳,宋辉.供应链风险来源及风险管理探讨.物流工程与管理.2009,(4):58~60
17 Chris Lonsdale, Andrew Cox. Outsourcing: The risks and rewards.Supply Management.2007,(12):45~49
18 Zsidisin. Defining Supply Risk: A Grounded Theory Approach. Proceedings from the decision sciences institute annual meeting, San Diego. 2008,(1):37~40
19 Zsidisin, Ellram.An agency theory investigation of supply risk management. Journal of Supply Chain Management.2008,(3):45~49
20刘浩华.基于供应风险的国防工业供应商选择研究.中央财经大学学报.2009,(11):67~69
21 Smetzer. The relationship of strategic purchasing of supply chain management. European Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management.2010,(23):43~51
22马士华,林勇.供应链管理.机械工业出版社.2000:65~334
23肖艳玲,王慧丽.基于层次分析法的石化企业供应商评价与分类管理.大庆石油学院学报.2007,(12):108~109
24林仁灶.制造企业的供应商分类管理.中国集体经济.2007,(11):49~50
25 Dickson. An analysis of vendor selection systems and decisions. Journal of Purchasing.1966, 2(1): 5~17
26 Clemons EK. The impact of information technology on the organization activity: The move to the middle hypothesi. Management information systems.1993,(10):9~35
27 Kumar K. Sutainable collaboration, Managing conflict and cooperation in interrogational systems. Mis-quarterly.2006,(20):279~300
28 Uzzi. Social structure and competition in inter firm networks: The paradox of embeddedness. Administrative Science Quaterly. 2007, (42):35~67
29陈实.供应链汽车零部件供应商的评价与选择.汽车工业研究.2008,(5):31~32
30曹招根.供应商评价体系的建立及实际应用.上海铁道科技. 2009,(3):12~13
31汪克夷,张爽.基于敏捷供应链的装备制造业供应商评价体系.科技与管理.2010,(1):62~64
32 Malone, Yates. Electronic markets and electronic hierarchies. Communication of the ACM.1987,(30):484~497
33 Hamel. Competition for competence and inter-partner learning within international strategic alliances. Strategic Management Journal.1991, (12):83~103
34 Baker, Robert. Relational Contracts and the Theory of the Firm. Quaterly Journal of Economics.2009,(117):39~48
35 Kropp. Transformational leadership and market orientation: Implications for the implementation of competitive strategies and business unit performance. Journal of Business Research.2009, (60):314~327
36肖建梅,黄志刚.供应商分类决策的树的构造.机电工程技术.2009,(35):79~80
37张杰,张健.基于Kraljic模型的石化企业供应商关系分类研究.财经理论与实践.2009,(3):112~113
38于昕,王道平.基于子空间聚类的供应商分类的方法研究.工业工程.2007,(5):77~78
39薛雷,陈兵.现代造船企业配套设备国外供应商的分类管理.大连海事大学学报.2008,(6):106~107
40王道平,王燕.制造型企业供应商分类模型研究.技术经济与管理研究.2010,(1):41~42
41 Dina Neiger. Supply chain risk identification with value-ocused process engineering. Operation management. 2009,(27):154~168
42 Yosef Sheffi. A comparison of stochastic and deterministic traffic assignment over congested networks. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.1981,(15):53~64
43 Lonsdale. Comparative efficiencies of domain decompositions. Parallel Computing. 2005,(12):1823~1835
44 Steele.Survey of materials selection for ceramic fuel cells II. Cathodes and anodes.Solid State Ionics.2006,(86): 1223~1234
45 Hallikas. Risk analysis and assessment in network environments: A dyadic case study. Production Economics. 2009,(78): 45~55
46 Cranfield, Paul V. Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model. Development Economics. 2010,(68): 289~307
47 Christine, Richard Brenchley. Risk in supply networks.Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management. 2009,(9):51~62
48丁伟东,刘凯.供应链风险研究.中国安全科学学报.2009,13(4): 64~66
49 Sunil Gupta. Customer Based Valuation. Interactive Marketing.2009,(23): 169~178
50 D.J. Wu, Paul R Kleindorfer. Optimal capacity expansion in the presence of capacity options.Decision Support System.2010,(40): 553~561
51 Tobias Schoenherr, Rao Tummala. Assessing supply chain risks with the analytic hierarchy process: Providing decision support for the offshoring decision by a US manufacturing company. Purchasing and Supply Management.2008,(14): 100~111
52 McCullen. Diagnosis and reduction of bullwhip in supply chains. supply chain management :An international journal.2010,(3):1964~1793
53 Guido.J.L, Micheli. Reducing the total cost of supply through risk-efficiency based supplier selection in the EPC industry. Purchasing & Supply Management.2010,(15):166~177
54 Mats Y. Svensson, Ola Bostr?m. Neck injuries in car collisions-a reviewcovering a possible injury mechanism and the development of a new rear-impact dummy.Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2009,(32):167~175
55 Harland. A high-resolution dinoflagellate cyst record from latest Holocene sediments in Kolj? Fjord, Sweden. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynologyy.2009,(128):119~141
56 Jukka Hallikas, Iris Karvonen. Risk management processes in supplier networks. Production Economics. 2010,(1):47~58
57 Clake.Virtual logistics: an introduction and Logistics management.2009, (28):486~507
58 Yang, Burns. The implications of postponement for the supply chain. Production Research.2010,(41):2075~2090
59 Asbrand.Squeeze out excess costs with supply chain solutions. Datamation. 2010, (3):62~66
60 Mitchell, Kulwant Singh. Spillback effects of expansion when product-types and firm-types differ. Management.2005,(21): 81~100
61张齐刚.浅谈供应链管理的风险规避问题.科技与管理.2001,(3):11~14
62 Ram Narasimhan. Vendor performance with supply risk: A chance-constrained DEA approach. Production Economics. 2009, (100):212~222
63 Stewart. Assessing supply risks of recycled water allocation strategies. Desalination.2010,(188):61~67
64易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究.西南交通大学博士论文.2007:45~47
65顾孟迪,雷鹏.风险管理.北京清华大学出版社.2005:70~72
66 Prater E, Biehl M. International supply chain agility, tradeoffs between flexibility and uncertainty. International Journal of Operations and Production Management. 2006,21(56):823~839
67 J. H. M. Tah, V. Carr. Towards a framework for project risk knowledgemanagement in the construction supply chain. Advances in Engineering Software.2007,(23): 835~846
68 A. Nagurney. Management of knowledge intensive systems as supernetworks: Modeling, analysis, computations, and applications Mathematical. Computer Modeling.2009,(42):397~417
69王永刚.核电站备件供应风险测度模型研究.武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版).2007,(3):72~74
70杨恩忠.风险矩阵法在玉门油田物资供应风险评估中的应用.北京石油管理干部学院学报.2008,(2):57~59
71杨恩忠.玉门油田实施内控制体系后物资供应风险管理效果评价.北京石油管理干部学院学报.2009,(1):76~79
72 Dirk Rosenau, Peter Buchholz. Assessing the long term supply risks for mineral raw materials——combined evaluation of past and future trends. Resources policy.2010,(34):161~175
73 Peter Zweifel, Susanne Bonomo. Energy security Coping with multiple supply risks.Energy Economic.2009,(17):179~183
74韩东东.供应链管理中的风险防范.工业工程.2009,(3):23~26
75杨红芬.供应链管理中的信息风险及对策分析.北京工商大学学报.2009,(2):12~14
76唐子烨,马宪国.世界石油供应风险对中国石油进口的影响.能源研究与信息.2006,(3):125~127
77马林.基于模型的供应链风险识别评估与一体化管理研究.浙江大学博士论文.2005:12~17
78魏其岩.核电行业非连续性需求的供应风险.核科学与工程.2008,(1):15~17
79 Teresa Wu, Jennifer Black. A model for inbound supply risk analysis. Computers in Industry.2010,(57):350~365
80 Micher Mougeot, Florence Naegelen. Supply-side risk adjustment and outlier payment policy. Health Economics.2009,(27):1196~1200
81 Scott C, Ellis. Buyer perceptions of supply disruption risk: A behavioral view and empirical assessment. Operations Management.2010,(28):34~36
82 Alain Nada?. Wind power planning in France, from state regulation to local planning. Land Use Policy.2009,(26):744~754
83 Franco Romerio. The risks of the nuclear policies. Energy Policy.2010,(26): 239~246
84 Robert E. Multi-agent based anticipatory control for enhancing the safety and performance of Generation IV nuclear power plants during long-term semi-autonomous operation.Progress in Nuclear Energy.2009,(43):113~120
85 Tae-Ho Yoo. The role of the nuclear power generation in the Korean national economy: An input–output analysis. Progress in Nuclear Energy.2009,(51): 86~92
86法国电力公司,从起步到腾飞——法国压水堆核电厂的故事.原子能出版社翻译出版.2001,(6):23~28
87苏群,岳林康.法国的核电价格及相关政策.中国物价.2009,(3):31~36
88 Mazen M. Recent advances in nuclear power: A review. Progress in Nuclear Energy.2009,(51): 225~235
89 Yong Suk Suh. An overview of instrumentation and control systems of a Korea standard nuclear power plant: A signal interface standpoint. Nuclear Engineering and Design. 2008,(238):3508~3521
90 Bozhana. Probabilistic safety analyses developments resurgence in Bulgaria-Kozloduy nuclear power plant example. Nuclear Engineering and Design.2010,(240): 880~885
91 Carpentier. Optimal power flows. Electrical Power & Energy Systems.2009,(1): 3~15
92张乃丽.日本核电力资源开发的特点及问题.现代日本经济.2007(4):12~14
93周全之.世界核电发展概况及趋势.大众用电.2009,(4):47~49
94王永刚,张金隆.基于力量矩阵的核电设备备件供应商关系管理策略设计.物流技术.2006,(8):69~70
95周凌.坚持科学发展观,促进上海核电装备产业发展.中国核工业.2006,(1):37~39
96苏俊清.强化五项措施,发展自有技术,提升核电装备能力和工艺水平.中国核工业.2006,(10):6~8
97袭桂莲.供应链环境下核电安装企业采购管理模式的研究.对外经济贸易大学硕士论文.2007:23~31
98陈宁.上海核电装备制造业产业链的理论假设与实证分析.上海社会科学院硕士论文.2007:2~8
99胡光耀.核电设备供应商关系管理研究.北京交通大学硕士论文.2007:56~59
100隆学武.中国核电装备制造业图强.装备制造.2009,(3):32~33
101吴海荣,吴满琳.基于模块化生产的上海核电装备制造网络产业链整合.商业经济.2010,(1):108~113
102核电行业专题研究.东兴证券.2010,(3):5~6
103 Izumi Komiya, Hiroyuki Torii. Relationship between students' interests in science and attitudes toward nuclear power generation. Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2008,(50): 719~727
104 Madalina Tronea. European quest for standardisation of nuclear power reactors.Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2010,(52): 159~163
105 Roderick Hyde. Nuclear fission power for 21st century needs: Enabling technologies for large-scale, low-risk, affordable nuclear electricity. Progress in Nuclear Energy.2008,(50): 82~91
106 Carlos. Human-system interface based on speech recognition: application to a virtual nuclear power plant control desk. Progress in Nuclear Energy. 2010,(52):379~386
107 Desai, Saibal Banerjee. Reduced-complexity LQR design using canonical correlation analysis.Automatica. 1986,(22): 593~597
108 Linda Rochf'ord. New Product Development Process. Industrial Marketing Management. 1997, (26):67~83
109 George Stalk. Competing on Capabilities, The New Rule of Corporate Strategy. Harvard Business Review.1992,(3):12~15
110 Amos, Gibson D. An Exploratory Model of Agility Forum: Key Facilitators and Performance Metrics. 4th Annual Agility Forum Conference.1995:23~25
111 Berrittella. An Analytic Hierarchy Process for the Evaluation of Transport Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.2007,(1):4~8
112 Gartner, Robert J.Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms.Product Innovation Management.1993, (10): 35~52.
113 Dale, P. Shaw. Statistical process control: An examination of some common queries. International Journal of Production Economics. 1991,(22): 33~41
114 Linda Rochford. How Involving More Functional Areas with a Firm Affects the New Product. Knowledge Management.1992, (9): 287~299
115 Harland, Kjell Nordberg. A high-resolution dinoflagellate cyst record from latest Holocene sediments in Kolj? Fjord. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynologyy.2003,(128):119~141
116 Timothy S, Margulies. Risk optimization: siting of nuclear power electricity generating units. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 2004,(86) 323~325
117 Patton, Dennis M. Counselor Recognition of Transference Reactions: Reply toMallinckrodt and Carter.Counseling Psychology.1996, (43): 259~260
118 Hair. Multivariate Data Analysis with Reading. New York Macm-illan.1995,(1):152~161
119孟增辉.聚类算法研究.河北大学出版社.2005:12~15
120狄明明.聚类分析和支持向量机相结合的混合评估模型.辽宁师范大学硕士学位论文.2009:45~48
121乔克林,吕佳.方差分析与回归分析之比较.延安大学学报(自然科学版).2009,(2):34~36
122 Tom Burns, G.M. Stalker. The Organization of Innovation. Knowledge Management and Organisational Design. 1996,(1): 77~92
123杨俊.供应链风险管理理论与方法研究.武汉理工大学硕士学位论文.2005:12~14
124刘建国.企业战略风险识别、评估与动态预警研究.北京科技大学博士学位论文.2008:69~70
125晚春东,齐二石.供应链风险产生根源的理论分析.天津大学学报(社会科学版).2007,(6):491~495
126张炜,郑晓齐.寡头垄断军品市场博弈分析.系统工程.2010,28(5):54~56
127陈积志,任方旭.双寡头垄断市场下研发投入竞争的决策选择.统计与决策.2010(7):38~40
128张凯,李向阳.具有产能约束的网络型寡头垄断产业链中企业决策模型研究.中国管理科学.2009,17(1):77~79
129何艳频,孙爱峰.Spearmen等级相关系数计算公式及相互的探讨.中国现代药物应用.2007,(1):72~73
130 Young-Keun Bang. Fuzzy Time Series Prediction with Data Preprocessing and Error Compensation Based on Correlation Analysis. Proc. of the 3th Convergence and Hybrid Information Technology conference.2008:714~721
131张弢,慕德俊.一种基于风险矩阵法的信息安全风险评估模型.计算机工程与应用.2010,46(5):93~95
132柳小桐. BP神经网络输入层数据归一化研究.机械工程与自动化.2010,(3):122~124
133吕晓玲,谢邦昌.数据挖掘方法与应用.中国人民大学出版社.2009:89~91
134周振华.基于模糊积分集成向量机的商业银行信息风险评价模型研究.哈尔滨工业大学硕士学位论文.2006:34~38
135 Vapnik. The nature of statistical learning theory. NY: Springer-Verlag. 1995:12~19
136柳回春,马树元.支持向量机的研究现状.中国国象图形学报.2002, (6):618~619
137元昌安.数据挖掘原理与SPSS Clementine应用宝典.电子工业出版社.2009:10~19
138王晓云.SVM算法分析与研究.渝西学院学报.2005,(4):15~17
139田宝勇,周应强.一种新的决策树组合优化算法.辽宁大学学报(自然科学版).2010,(1):40~42
140朱参世,李响.自适应模糊决策树算法在数据流挖掘中的应用.现代电子技术.2010,(10):63~65
141王莎莎,陈安.组合评估模型在中国GDP预测中的应用.山东大学学报(理学版).2009,(10):44~46
142唐晓静,杨桂元.组合预测系数的确定方法.财贸研究.1994,(6):61~63
143周鸿飞,陈志斌.评价回归模型拟合效果的数量化方法.沈阳农业大学学报.2001,(32):455~458
144胡京爽.随机变量的多项式最佳均方误差逼近.大学数学.2005,(1):14~16
145韩兆洲,杨林涛.极差、平均差和标准差之间测度关系研究.2008,(4):4~6
146周忠眉.数据挖掘与统计理论.漳州师范学院学报(自然科学版).2006,(1):24~25
147郑长鸣.基于系统观的知识型员工绩效管理研究.西南财经大学硕士论文. 2008:10~13
148杨洋.企业组织循环结构及基本运行机理.哈尔滨工业大学博士学位论文.2007:60~62
149 Towill. Explicit filters and supply chain design. Purchasing and Supply Management.2003,(9): 73~81
150刘伯超.供应链风险的特征与防范措施分析.商场现代化. 2009,(2):83~86
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |