人民币汇率、美对华出口管制与中美贸易失衡的相关性研究
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摘要
中美两国双边贸易关系正常化以来,两国贸易发展迅速,但与此同时,美对华贸易逆差逐年增加,特别是中国加入WTO后,贸易逆差急剧扩大。贸易失衡的不断加剧,导致双边贸易摩擦频繁发生,给中国整体经济的稳定增长和世界经济的可持续发展带来了巨大的冲击。因此,探究中美贸易失衡的相关性因素,从而如何实现更加平衡的贸易关系,就成为中美两国亟待解决的重大课题。
本文首先运用规范研究方法,即在对现有文献进行归纳与评析的基础上,运用贸易收支理论、汇率传递理论、比较优势理论及贸易结构理论等来阐释中美贸易失衡的两个相关性因素;其次运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、回归分析等经济计量实证方法来验证理论分析,在实证分析中,以中美各年的贸易差额来衡量贸易失衡,并作为因变量,以中美高技术贸易差额来衡量美对华出口管制程度,与人民币汇率一起作为自变量。
理论分析和实证检验表明:中美贸易失衡与美对华高技术产品出口管制存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且具有相互促进的“放大效应”,因此,美国对华长期采取的出口管制政策是制约美国对华出口、引发并加剧双边贸易失衡的主要原因;经过指数平滑后的中美贸易差额与汇率之间并不存在长期均衡的协整关系,在不完全竞争的中美贸易市场,因进口商讨价还价能力、出口商投入要素来源和贸易条件等多因素的作用,导致人民币汇率对出口商品价格的传递受阻,人民币汇率作用中美贸易收支的机制基本失灵。因此,中美贸易失衡并非由人民币汇率造成,人民币汇率不是中美贸易不平衡的根源;人民币升值根本平衡不了美国的贸易逆差,如果美国能够放宽乃至取消对华高技术产品出口管制,中美贸易失衡将会得以化解。
本文的可能创新之处表现在:首先,运用比较优势理论和贸易结构理论深入分析了美对华出口管制引发并加剧双边贸易失衡的内在机理,并运用2003年11月——2010年12月的数据进行了实证检验;其次,在实证检验部分,将美方统计数据和中方统计数据进行了对比分析;最后,从增加供给和降低需求两方面设计了解决中美贸易失衡的具体路径。
Achieving a more balanced Sino-American trade relationship is of extreme importance to the economies of the United States and China and the world as a whole. The ever-increasing unbalance of Sino-American trade has resulted in frequent occurrence of trade friction, impacting strong, sustainable and balanced global economic growth. Therefore, exploring the main reason of China-US trade imbalance and how to achieve more balanced trade relations has become a major issue solved between the two countries.
Specification analysis and empirical analysis have been reflected in the text. Theoretical and empirical analysis have shown that there exists the long term stable equilibrium relationship and mutually enhancing‘amplifying effect’between the Unbalance of Sino-American Trade and United States control on export of hi-tech products to China. Control on export is the main reason triggering instead of exchange rate of RMB and aggravating the trade unbalance between the United States and China. Based on the principles of mutual respect and benefit for a win-win situation, the Sino-American trade unbalance could be resolved through induced and mandatory method urging the United States to put to action in releasing or even canceling its export control of hi-tech export to China.
Innovation may be expressed in this article: first, analyzing the internal mechanism of export control upon China causing and intensifying the bilateral trade imbalance through the theory of comparative advantage and trade structure; Secondly, a comparative analysis of the U.S. and Chinese statistics in empirical part; Finally, depending on increasing supply and reducing demand upon export control to solve the unbalance between the U.S. and China.
本文首先运用规范研究方法,即在对现有文献进行归纳与评析的基础上,运用贸易收支理论、汇率传递理论、比较优势理论及贸易结构理论等来阐释中美贸易失衡的两个相关性因素;其次运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、回归分析等经济计量实证方法来验证理论分析,在实证分析中,以中美各年的贸易差额来衡量贸易失衡,并作为因变量,以中美高技术贸易差额来衡量美对华出口管制程度,与人民币汇率一起作为自变量。
理论分析和实证检验表明:中美贸易失衡与美对华高技术产品出口管制存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且具有相互促进的“放大效应”,因此,美国对华长期采取的出口管制政策是制约美国对华出口、引发并加剧双边贸易失衡的主要原因;经过指数平滑后的中美贸易差额与汇率之间并不存在长期均衡的协整关系,在不完全竞争的中美贸易市场,因进口商讨价还价能力、出口商投入要素来源和贸易条件等多因素的作用,导致人民币汇率对出口商品价格的传递受阻,人民币汇率作用中美贸易收支的机制基本失灵。因此,中美贸易失衡并非由人民币汇率造成,人民币汇率不是中美贸易不平衡的根源;人民币升值根本平衡不了美国的贸易逆差,如果美国能够放宽乃至取消对华高技术产品出口管制,中美贸易失衡将会得以化解。
本文的可能创新之处表现在:首先,运用比较优势理论和贸易结构理论深入分析了美对华出口管制引发并加剧双边贸易失衡的内在机理,并运用2003年11月——2010年12月的数据进行了实证检验;其次,在实证检验部分,将美方统计数据和中方统计数据进行了对比分析;最后,从增加供给和降低需求两方面设计了解决中美贸易失衡的具体路径。
Achieving a more balanced Sino-American trade relationship is of extreme importance to the economies of the United States and China and the world as a whole. The ever-increasing unbalance of Sino-American trade has resulted in frequent occurrence of trade friction, impacting strong, sustainable and balanced global economic growth. Therefore, exploring the main reason of China-US trade imbalance and how to achieve more balanced trade relations has become a major issue solved between the two countries.
Specification analysis and empirical analysis have been reflected in the text. Theoretical and empirical analysis have shown that there exists the long term stable equilibrium relationship and mutually enhancing‘amplifying effect’between the Unbalance of Sino-American Trade and United States control on export of hi-tech products to China. Control on export is the main reason triggering instead of exchange rate of RMB and aggravating the trade unbalance between the United States and China. Based on the principles of mutual respect and benefit for a win-win situation, the Sino-American trade unbalance could be resolved through induced and mandatory method urging the United States to put to action in releasing or even canceling its export control of hi-tech export to China.
Innovation may be expressed in this article: first, analyzing the internal mechanism of export control upon China causing and intensifying the bilateral trade imbalance through the theory of comparative advantage and trade structure; Secondly, a comparative analysis of the U.S. and Chinese statistics in empirical part; Finally, depending on increasing supply and reducing demand upon export control to solve the unbalance between the U.S. and China.
引文
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③2009年和2010年的中国数据来自于海关统计资讯网:http://www.chinacustomsstat.com/aspx/1/Index.aspx。
④孙敬水:《计量经济学教程》.清华大学出版社,2005年.
⑤孙敬水:《计量经济学教程》.清华大学出版社,2005年.
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