化学工业节能减排问题分析与政策建议
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摘要
由于国家经济能源安全、全球气候变化的影响,节能减排问题已经成为国内外学术界和各国政府共同关注的焦点。作为世界上最大的发展中国家和第二大能源生产和消费国,以及仅次于美国的第二大碳排放国家,中国的节能减排已经成为了影响我国经济社会发展全局的重大战略问题。事实表明,二氧化碳减排最有效的措施之一是从重点行业入手,作为工业领域具有举足轻重地位的化学工业,既是能源生产和消费大户,又是重污染大户。因此,研究化学工业的节能减排问题不仅有助于实现“十一五”规划的节能减排目标,并且对于保障国家能源安全也具有非常重要的示范作用。
本文在国内外现有研究的基础上,基于目前国际上广泛采用的协整性检验和Granger因果关系分析的方法,研究我国化学工业能源消费与经济增长的长期趋势和因果关系。发现其工业总产值与能源消费之间存在协整关系,且两者之间存在Granger因果关系,进一步发现,Granger因果关系的引导方向是单边的,即化学工业的经济发展会引起能源消费的增加,但能源消费的增加不能引起化学工业的经济增长。
能耗强度是衡量一个国家碳排放情况的重要指标,能源效率则衡量了能源作为一种生产要素对产出的支持程度,为了达到有效减排的目的,考虑化学工业二氧化碳排放的影响因素尤为重要,本文则基于LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数分析法)因素分解方法,将二氧化碳排放的关键因素分为能源消费、化学工业化石能源比例、化石能源结构、经济增长、化学工业的部门结构、能耗强度等。发现经济和能耗强度下降是影响中国化学工业1996-2007年二氧化碳排放的两个最重要的因素。
一些学者建议通过征收碳税减少能源消费、实现碳减排,认为碳税是最成本有效的减排手段。因此本文进一步基于灰色预测、投入产出理论以及模糊目标规划模型,研究碳税征收对我国化学工业能源消耗及经济状况的影响。认为三种碳税情景中,节能成本由高到低依次是S-EU、S-SWE和S-FIN。而具体部门中节能成本最高的是化学纤维业,最低的则是化学原材料与化学制品制造业。研究化学工业的节能减排问题具有非常重要的理论意义和实际意义。
With the influence of the state economic and energy security and the global climate change, the issue of energy saving and emission reduction has been the focus of common concern among the global academia and national governments. As one of the largest energy producer and consumer, China is facing a strategic problem, energy saving and emission reduction, impeding the all-around situation of China's economic and social development.
In fact, one of the most effective measures of energy saving and emission reduction is to take important areas as a breakthrough. The chemical industries, a critical role of the whole industry, are also one of the biggest contributors to energy production and consumption. Therefore, the chemical industries are mainly responsible for CO2 emissions. It is obviously necessary for China's energy and environmental policy makers to investigate the driving forces governing CO2 emission levels and their evolution.
According to the methods of cointegration analysis and causality research, this paper studied the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in China's chemical industry. Investigation of how energy-related CO2 emissions change over times becomes a major issue in formulating both energy and environmental policies. Thus we decompose the change of China's chemical industrial CO2 emissions over 1996-2007 into sectoral energy consumption effect, fossil energy ratio effect, fossil energy structure effect, economic activity, chemical industrial sectoral structure effect and energy intensity based on LMDI(the Log-Mean Divisia Index). Implementation of a carbon tax is one of the major ways to mitigate CO2 emission. A fuzzy goal programming approach, integrated with gray prediction and input-output theory, is used to construct a model for simulating the CO2 reduction capacities and economic impacts of three different tax scenarios. In a word, research of chemical industrial CO2 emissions makes an important guiding significance.
本文在国内外现有研究的基础上,基于目前国际上广泛采用的协整性检验和Granger因果关系分析的方法,研究我国化学工业能源消费与经济增长的长期趋势和因果关系。发现其工业总产值与能源消费之间存在协整关系,且两者之间存在Granger因果关系,进一步发现,Granger因果关系的引导方向是单边的,即化学工业的经济发展会引起能源消费的增加,但能源消费的增加不能引起化学工业的经济增长。
能耗强度是衡量一个国家碳排放情况的重要指标,能源效率则衡量了能源作为一种生产要素对产出的支持程度,为了达到有效减排的目的,考虑化学工业二氧化碳排放的影响因素尤为重要,本文则基于LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数分析法)因素分解方法,将二氧化碳排放的关键因素分为能源消费、化学工业化石能源比例、化石能源结构、经济增长、化学工业的部门结构、能耗强度等。发现经济和能耗强度下降是影响中国化学工业1996-2007年二氧化碳排放的两个最重要的因素。
一些学者建议通过征收碳税减少能源消费、实现碳减排,认为碳税是最成本有效的减排手段。因此本文进一步基于灰色预测、投入产出理论以及模糊目标规划模型,研究碳税征收对我国化学工业能源消耗及经济状况的影响。认为三种碳税情景中,节能成本由高到低依次是S-EU、S-SWE和S-FIN。而具体部门中节能成本最高的是化学纤维业,最低的则是化学原材料与化学制品制造业。研究化学工业的节能减排问题具有非常重要的理论意义和实际意义。
With the influence of the state economic and energy security and the global climate change, the issue of energy saving and emission reduction has been the focus of common concern among the global academia and national governments. As one of the largest energy producer and consumer, China is facing a strategic problem, energy saving and emission reduction, impeding the all-around situation of China's economic and social development.
In fact, one of the most effective measures of energy saving and emission reduction is to take important areas as a breakthrough. The chemical industries, a critical role of the whole industry, are also one of the biggest contributors to energy production and consumption. Therefore, the chemical industries are mainly responsible for CO2 emissions. It is obviously necessary for China's energy and environmental policy makers to investigate the driving forces governing CO2 emission levels and their evolution.
According to the methods of cointegration analysis and causality research, this paper studied the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in China's chemical industry. Investigation of how energy-related CO2 emissions change over times becomes a major issue in formulating both energy and environmental policies. Thus we decompose the change of China's chemical industrial CO2 emissions over 1996-2007 into sectoral energy consumption effect, fossil energy ratio effect, fossil energy structure effect, economic activity, chemical industrial sectoral structure effect and energy intensity based on LMDI(the Log-Mean Divisia Index). Implementation of a carbon tax is one of the major ways to mitigate CO2 emission. A fuzzy goal programming approach, integrated with gray prediction and input-output theory, is used to construct a model for simulating the CO2 reduction capacities and economic impacts of three different tax scenarios. In a word, research of chemical industrial CO2 emissions makes an important guiding significance.
引文
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