基于生态足迹模型的环渤海地区可持续发展研究
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摘要
随着城市快速化发展和经济高速发展,环渤海地区的环境污染和资源供需关系紧张日趋严重,阻碍了该地区经济和社会的可持续发展,成为制约环渤海地区生态与经济发展的瓶颈,如何协调好经济发展与生态环保之间的关系,是关乎该区域可持续发展的关键。本论文应用生态足迹模型来定量评价环渤海地区的可持续发展状况,通过计算环渤海地区2000-2007年的生态足迹和生态承载力,系统分析了环渤海地区的生态资源与能源消费情况,定量地给出环渤海地区的可持续发展状态,阐明该区域可持续发展的方向,主要研究结果如下：
(1)2000-2007年环渤海地区人均生态足迹和总生态足迹均呈现上升趋势,人均生态承载力和总生态承载力保持较为平稳的势态,波动不大,这导致环渤海地区人均生态赤字和总生态赤字呈现逐年扩大趋势,人均生态足迹超支严重,由2000年的1.393hm2上升到2007年的2.437hm2,增长了43%,高于全国平均水平,生态环境处于超负荷状态,处于不可持续发展状态。
(2)2000-2007年环渤海地区万元GDP生态足迹呈现逐年下降趋势,由2000年的1.8732hm2/万元下降到2007年的1.0679 hm2/万元,下降了43%,说明环渤海地区随着产业结构的优化调整和技术改造,资源利用效率在逐年提高。
(3)2000-2007年环渤海地区各省市除天津市有所上升外,其他省市生态足迹多样性均呈现波动性下降趋势,说明环渤海地区的生物足迹多样性较低。发展能力除北京市发展较为平稳外,其他各省市均呈现不断上升的趋势,通过增加土地类型利用的多样化,均衡利用各种不同类型的土地资源,来提高发展能力。
(4)2000-2007年环渤海地区生态压力指数处于较稳定的状态,处于很不安全等级。生态占用指数和生态经济协调指数呈现逐年上升趋势,说明环渤海地区生态协调能力在不断的改善,但生态协调性仍处于很差的等级,需要进一步加强生态建设。可持续发展指数逐年缓慢上升趋势,表明环渤海地区的生态环境得到了改善,但仍处于较低水平,生态建设和经济发展的任务还很重。
With the rapid development of urban and economic, the relation growing tension between the environmental pollution and supply and demand of resources in the Bohai sea Region. This relation precluded the sustainable development of economy and society, and has become a bottleneck which constraint the development of ecological and economic of the region. How to coordinate the relationship of the economic development and environmental protection is very important to the sustainable development of the region. Therefore, this thesis applies a theoretical model of ecological footprint to quantitative evaluation sustainable development of the Bohai Sea Region. By calculates 2000-2007 years'ecological footprints and ecosystem carrying capacity and carry on system's analysis to obtain quantitatively the state of sustainable development and clarify the direction of sustainable development, for the sustainable development of the region to provide strategic guidance.
The main research results are as follows:
(1) The per capita ecological footprint of the Bohai Sea region and the total ecological footprint both raised in 2000-2007. Ecological capacity per capita and total ecological capacity to maintain a relatively stable state of affairs, there is no wave. This leads to the widening of the total per capita and the ecological deficit ecological deficit year by year Bohai Sea region, the per capita ecological footprint serious cost overruns, increased from 2000 to 2007 1.393hm2 2.437hm2, an increase of 43%, higher than the national average, the ecological environment in overload, is not in the sustainable development situation.
(2) The 2000-2007 million Yuan Bohai ecological footprint of GDP decline year by year, from 2000 1.8732hm2/million in 2007 down to 1.0679 hm2/million, down 43%, with that optimize the industrial structure adjustment and transformation in Bohai Rim, the efficiency of resource use is improved in the year
(3) The Ecological footprint is arise except Tanjing in bohai rim in 2000-2007, diversity of other provinces and cities showed a downward trend in volatility, That shows a lower diversity of biological footprint in the Bohai Sea region. In addition to the development of capacity development in Beijing is relatively stable, Other provinces and cities showed a rising trend. By increasing the diversity of the types of land use, balanced use of different types of land resources, to improve the development capacity.
(4) The ecological pressure index in Bohai Sea ecological pressure index is in a relatively stable state in 2000-2007, not in the Security level. The ecological footprint index and the ecological and economic coordination index showed an upward trend year by year, this implies the ability of the ecology is continuously improved in the Bohai Sea region, but still in poor ecological coordination level, also need to further strengthen ecological construction. The sustainability Index is slowly rising year by year, this showed that the ecological environment of Bohai Sea region has improved, but still at a low level, the task of economic development and the ecological construction are heavy.
(1)2000-2007年环渤海地区人均生态足迹和总生态足迹均呈现上升趋势,人均生态承载力和总生态承载力保持较为平稳的势态,波动不大,这导致环渤海地区人均生态赤字和总生态赤字呈现逐年扩大趋势,人均生态足迹超支严重,由2000年的1.393hm2上升到2007年的2.437hm2,增长了43%,高于全国平均水平,生态环境处于超负荷状态,处于不可持续发展状态。
(2)2000-2007年环渤海地区万元GDP生态足迹呈现逐年下降趋势,由2000年的1.8732hm2/万元下降到2007年的1.0679 hm2/万元,下降了43%,说明环渤海地区随着产业结构的优化调整和技术改造,资源利用效率在逐年提高。
(3)2000-2007年环渤海地区各省市除天津市有所上升外,其他省市生态足迹多样性均呈现波动性下降趋势,说明环渤海地区的生物足迹多样性较低。发展能力除北京市发展较为平稳外,其他各省市均呈现不断上升的趋势,通过增加土地类型利用的多样化,均衡利用各种不同类型的土地资源,来提高发展能力。
(4)2000-2007年环渤海地区生态压力指数处于较稳定的状态,处于很不安全等级。生态占用指数和生态经济协调指数呈现逐年上升趋势,说明环渤海地区生态协调能力在不断的改善,但生态协调性仍处于很差的等级,需要进一步加强生态建设。可持续发展指数逐年缓慢上升趋势,表明环渤海地区的生态环境得到了改善,但仍处于较低水平,生态建设和经济发展的任务还很重。
With the rapid development of urban and economic, the relation growing tension between the environmental pollution and supply and demand of resources in the Bohai sea Region. This relation precluded the sustainable development of economy and society, and has become a bottleneck which constraint the development of ecological and economic of the region. How to coordinate the relationship of the economic development and environmental protection is very important to the sustainable development of the region. Therefore, this thesis applies a theoretical model of ecological footprint to quantitative evaluation sustainable development of the Bohai Sea Region. By calculates 2000-2007 years'ecological footprints and ecosystem carrying capacity and carry on system's analysis to obtain quantitatively the state of sustainable development and clarify the direction of sustainable development, for the sustainable development of the region to provide strategic guidance.
The main research results are as follows:
(1) The per capita ecological footprint of the Bohai Sea region and the total ecological footprint both raised in 2000-2007. Ecological capacity per capita and total ecological capacity to maintain a relatively stable state of affairs, there is no wave. This leads to the widening of the total per capita and the ecological deficit ecological deficit year by year Bohai Sea region, the per capita ecological footprint serious cost overruns, increased from 2000 to 2007 1.393hm2 2.437hm2, an increase of 43%, higher than the national average, the ecological environment in overload, is not in the sustainable development situation.
(2) The 2000-2007 million Yuan Bohai ecological footprint of GDP decline year by year, from 2000 1.8732hm2/million in 2007 down to 1.0679 hm2/million, down 43%, with that optimize the industrial structure adjustment and transformation in Bohai Rim, the efficiency of resource use is improved in the year
(3) The Ecological footprint is arise except Tanjing in bohai rim in 2000-2007, diversity of other provinces and cities showed a downward trend in volatility, That shows a lower diversity of biological footprint in the Bohai Sea region. In addition to the development of capacity development in Beijing is relatively stable, Other provinces and cities showed a rising trend. By increasing the diversity of the types of land use, balanced use of different types of land resources, to improve the development capacity.
(4) The ecological pressure index in Bohai Sea ecological pressure index is in a relatively stable state in 2000-2007, not in the Security level. The ecological footprint index and the ecological and economic coordination index showed an upward trend year by year, this implies the ability of the ecology is continuously improved in the Bohai Sea region, but still in poor ecological coordination level, also need to further strengthen ecological construction. The sustainability Index is slowly rising year by year, this showed that the ecological environment of Bohai Sea region has improved, but still at a low level, the task of economic development and the ecological construction are heavy.
引文
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[2]孙瑛,刘呈庆.可持续发展管理导论[M].北京：科学出版社,2003
[3]隋春花,张耀辉等.环境一经济系统能值评介：介绍Odum的能值理论[J].重庆环境科学,1999,21(1)：18-20
[4]惠丽.常山县可持续发展研究——基于生态足迹法和层次分析法[D].[硕士学位论文],南京林业大学生态学,2009
[5]Meadows, D. et al. The Limits to Growth. Washington D. C [M], Potomac,1972
[6]熊勇.基于生态足迹理论的南昌市可持续发展动态分析[D].[硕士学位论文],南昌大学环境工程,2008
[7]叶正波.可持续发展评估与实践[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2002
[8l张坤民,王灿.中国可持续发展进展及其理论研究的若干思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2001,11(3)：13-18.
[9]叶文虎,唐剑武.可持续发展的衡量方法及衡量指标初探[J].可持续发展之路,北京：北京大学出版社.1995
[10]张志强,孙成权,程国栋等.可持续发展研究进展与趋向[J].地球科学进展,1999,14(6)：589-595
[11]贾珍.青岛城市可持续发展指标体系与综合评价研究[D].[硕士学位论文],东北财经大学统计学,2005
[12]张帆.可持续发展指标(体系)的分类及构建探讨[J].上海环境科学.2000,19(11)：501-504
[13]徐中民，张志强.可持续发展定量指标体系的分类和评价[J].西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),2000,36(4)：82-87
[14]徐中民,张志强.可持续发展定量研究的几种新方法评介[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2000,10(2)：60-64
[15]张志强,程国栋,徐中民.可持续发展评估指标方法及应用研究[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(4)：344-360
[16]罗守贵,曾尊固.可持续发展指标体系研究评述[J].人文地理,1999,14(4)：54-59
[17]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.可持续发展定量研究的几种新方法评介[J].中国人口资源与环境,2000,10(2)：60-64
[18]UNDP.Human Development Report 1990. New York [M]. Oxford University Press, 1990
[19]Wackemagel M, Onisto L, Bello Petal. Ecological Footprints of Nations [R]. Commissioned by the Earth Council for the Forum. International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, Toronto.1997:4.12
[20]Wackernagel M, Onisto L, Bello P, et al. National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept [J]. Ecological Economics,1999,29:375-390
[21]徐中民,陈东景,张志强等.中国1999年生态足迹计算与发展能力分析[J].应用生态学报,2003,14(2)：280-285
[22]纪淑娜.基于生态足迹理论分析兰州市的发展现状[D].[硕士学位论文],兰州大学环境工程,2009
[23]WWF International, UNEP-WCMC, Redefining Progress et al. Living Planet Report 2000[M],2000
[24]Mathis Wackernagel, Ljllemor Lillemor, Carina Bergstrom. Evaluating the use Of national capital with the ecological footprint-Applications in Sweden and sub regions [J]. AMBIU,1999,28(7):604-612
[25]Helmut Haberl, Karl Heinz Erb, Fridolin Krausmann.How to calculate interpret ecological footprints for long Period of time:the case of Austria 1926-1995[J]. Ecological Economics,2001,38:25-45
[26]Wackernagel M, Monfreda C, Deumling D, et al.Household Ecological Footprint Calculator[EB/OL].http://www.sbs.utexas.edu/resource/EcoFtPrnt/9-2000 ef-household-evaluation.xls
[27]刘宇辉,彭希哲.中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估[J].生态学报,2004,24(10)：2257-2262
[28]张志强,徐中民,程国栋,陈东景.中国西部12省(区市)的生态足迹[J].地理学报,2001,56(5)：599-610
[29]谢红霞,任志远,莫宏伟,城市生态足迹计算分析—以西安市为例[J].干旱区地理,2005,(02)：215-218
[30]李兵,张建强,权进民.企业生态足迹和生态效率研究[J].环境工程,2007,(06)：85-88
[31]曹新向.基于生态足迹分析的旅游地生态安全评价研究—以开封市为例[J].中国人口资源与环境,2006,(02)：70-75
[32]William E R.Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:what urban economics leaves out? [J]. Environment Urban,1992, (4):121-130
[33]Mathis Wackernagel, J David Yount. The Ecological Footprint:An Indicator of Progress toward Regional Sustainability [J]. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,1998,51: 511-529
[34]Rees W E. Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out[J]. Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130
[35]尹璇,倪晋仁,毛小苓.生态足迹研究述评[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2004,(05)：45-52
[36]Rees WE. Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:what urban economics leaves out[J]. Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130
[37]Mathis Wackemagel, William E. Rees. Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth [M]. Gabriola Island Canada:New Society Publishers,1996:1-83
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