FDI贸易效应的省际差异
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摘要
改革开放30多年来,我国利用FDI的实践经验和理论研究都表明,FDI促进了我国的对外贸易和经济增长。但由于我国区域经济发展严重的非均衡性,FDI的分布及其效应同样存在显著差异,并成为区域经济非均衡发展的关键原因之一。FDI分布的非均衡性不仅体现在不同经济区域间,而且也体现在区域内不同省份间,具体表现为FDI贸易效应的省际差异。在当前的中部崛起的大背景下,中部六省的FDI政策必须正视FDI贸易效应的省际差异,并据此制定和实施相应的经济政策才能更好的促进经济增长。
本文就FDI、国际贸易及两者之间关系的相关理论,从外贸规模、外贸依存度、贸易方式、出口产品构成、FDI绝对量和相对量及FDI的行业分布等方面,对中部六省的对外贸易和FDI现状进行了分析。研究表明,中部六省在对外贸易和FDI方面呈现显著差异。通过实证面板数据模型及模型形式的选择,基于不变系数面板数据模型对中部六省FDI的对外贸易总效应、出口效应和进口效应进行实证分析,基于变系数面板数据模型对中部六省FDI贸易效应的省际差异进行研究。结果显示,FDI贸易效应在中部各省间存在显著差异,中部六省中只有湖南省的FDI对出口和进口均具备互补效应,湖北和江西的FDI对进口具备互补效应,其他各省的FDI贸易效应均不显著。控制变量中的市场规模和经济开放度显著影响FDI贸易效应的发挥。
根据FDI省际差异的分布,结合中部六省对外贸易及FDI状况,提出了一些政策措施,以期更好的发挥FDI对国际贸易和经济增长的促进作用,实现中部崛起和整体经济的协调发展。
It’s more than 20years since the reform and opening up in china, during which the practical experiences and theoretical studies of FDI in China have shown that FDI has promoted China’s foreign trade and economic growth. However, due to serious non-equilibrium in regional economy of China, the distribution and the effect of FDI have great differences, which is the key to non-balanced development of regional economy. Such non-equilibrium is reflected not only in different economic regions, but also in different provinces in the same region, which are inter-provincial differences of FDI’s trade effect. In the current context of the Rising of Central China, the policy for FDI in the six provinces of the Mid-china must address the inter-provincial differences of FDI’s trade effect and make appropriate economic policies to promote economic growth. Based on the theories of the relations between international trade and FDI, current situations of foreign trade and FDI in the six central provinces are analyzed respectively in foreign trade scale, trade dependency, the constitution of export commodity, absolute volume and relative volume of FDI, and distribution of FDI in industries. The result shows that there is a significant difference between foreign trade and FDI in the six provinces of the Mid-china. Through empirical panel data model and the choice of model form, this paper analyzes the foreign trade Trader effect of FDI, export and import effects based on the same coefficient panel data and research the differences of inter-provincial trade effects of FDI based on panel data model with variable coefficients. The result indicates that there is a significant difference of FDI trade effects in the six provinces. Only in Hunan, FDI has complementary effects on both exports and imports. Only in Hubei and Jiangxi, FDI has complementary effects on imports and trade effects of FDI in the other provinces are not significant. Control variables of market size and economic opening significantly affect the trade effects of FDI to play. Finally, in accordance with inter-provincial differences in FDI distribution, combined with the six provinces in central state of foreign trade and FDI, this paper makes a number of policy measures with a view to better play FDI on international trade and economic growth to promote the role of central China and to achieve the coordination of the economy as a whole development.
本文就FDI、国际贸易及两者之间关系的相关理论,从外贸规模、外贸依存度、贸易方式、出口产品构成、FDI绝对量和相对量及FDI的行业分布等方面,对中部六省的对外贸易和FDI现状进行了分析。研究表明,中部六省在对外贸易和FDI方面呈现显著差异。通过实证面板数据模型及模型形式的选择,基于不变系数面板数据模型对中部六省FDI的对外贸易总效应、出口效应和进口效应进行实证分析,基于变系数面板数据模型对中部六省FDI贸易效应的省际差异进行研究。结果显示,FDI贸易效应在中部各省间存在显著差异,中部六省中只有湖南省的FDI对出口和进口均具备互补效应,湖北和江西的FDI对进口具备互补效应,其他各省的FDI贸易效应均不显著。控制变量中的市场规模和经济开放度显著影响FDI贸易效应的发挥。
根据FDI省际差异的分布,结合中部六省对外贸易及FDI状况,提出了一些政策措施,以期更好的发挥FDI对国际贸易和经济增长的促进作用,实现中部崛起和整体经济的协调发展。
It’s more than 20years since the reform and opening up in china, during which the practical experiences and theoretical studies of FDI in China have shown that FDI has promoted China’s foreign trade and economic growth. However, due to serious non-equilibrium in regional economy of China, the distribution and the effect of FDI have great differences, which is the key to non-balanced development of regional economy. Such non-equilibrium is reflected not only in different economic regions, but also in different provinces in the same region, which are inter-provincial differences of FDI’s trade effect. In the current context of the Rising of Central China, the policy for FDI in the six provinces of the Mid-china must address the inter-provincial differences of FDI’s trade effect and make appropriate economic policies to promote economic growth. Based on the theories of the relations between international trade and FDI, current situations of foreign trade and FDI in the six central provinces are analyzed respectively in foreign trade scale, trade dependency, the constitution of export commodity, absolute volume and relative volume of FDI, and distribution of FDI in industries. The result shows that there is a significant difference between foreign trade and FDI in the six provinces of the Mid-china. Through empirical panel data model and the choice of model form, this paper analyzes the foreign trade Trader effect of FDI, export and import effects based on the same coefficient panel data and research the differences of inter-provincial trade effects of FDI based on panel data model with variable coefficients. The result indicates that there is a significant difference of FDI trade effects in the six provinces. Only in Hunan, FDI has complementary effects on both exports and imports. Only in Hubei and Jiangxi, FDI has complementary effects on imports and trade effects of FDI in the other provinces are not significant. Control variables of market size and economic opening significantly affect the trade effects of FDI to play. Finally, in accordance with inter-provincial differences in FDI distribution, combined with the six provinces in central state of foreign trade and FDI, this paper makes a number of policy measures with a view to better play FDI on international trade and economic growth to promote the role of central China and to achieve the coordination of the economy as a whole development.
引文
[1] Mundell , R. A. 1957 ,International Trade and Factor Mobility. American Economic Review, 1957, (6): 321-335.
[2] Markuson, James R. and Svensson Lars E.O., Trade in Goods and Factor with International Differences in Technology, International Economics Review, 1985, (26):175-192
[3]小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987年
[4] Markuson, James R. and Melvin, James R., Factor Movements and Commodity Trade as Complements, Journal of International Economics, 1983, (13):341-356
[5] Bhagwati, Jagdish N,Richard A.Brecher ,Elias Dinopoulos and T.N.Srinivasan., Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment and Welfare: A Political Economy Theoretical Model , Journal of Development Economics ,1987,(27):127-138
[6] Dinopoulos, Elias, Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment, Economics and Politics, 1989, (2):145-160
[7] Lipsey and Weiss.M.Y., Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries ,Review of Economics and Statistics ,1981,(66):304-308
[8] Mariam Camarero and CecilioTamarit,Estimating the Export and Import Demand for Manufactured Goods: The Role of FDI, Review of world Economics, 2004, (40):347-375
[9]Belderbos R and Sleuwaegen. L. Tariff jumping FDI and export substitution: Japanese electronics firm in Europe. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1998, (16): 601-638.
[10] Blonigen B.A., Tariff-Jumping Antidumping Duties, NBER, Working Papers, 7776, 2000,(7)
[11] Hein,S.,Trade, Strategy and the Dependency Hypothesis :A Comparison of Policy, Foreign Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America and East Asia, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1992,(340):497-521.
[12] Lucas, R., On the Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment Evidence from East and Southeast Asia, World Development, 1993, (21):391- 406
[13]Zhang, Qing and Felmingham, Bruce, The Relationship between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China's Provincial Export Trade, China Economic Review, 2001, (12):82-99
[14] Bayoumi,T. and Lipsey,G., Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and RegionalTrade, IMF Working paper, IMF,1997,(103)
[15] Mucchielli.J.L., and Chedoe,S., Foreign Direct investment ,Export Performance and the Impact on Home Employment: A Empirical Analysis of French Firms. New Horizons in International Business, Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar, 1999
[16]Jun,K,W, and Singn,H., The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries, Transnational Coporations,1996,(8):67-105
[17]Dunning.J.H, Globalization, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Oxford: Elsevier, 1998, 49- 155.
[18] Cray, H.P., International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Oxford: Elsevier, 1998, 19- 27.
[19]许和连,赖明勇.出口贸易带动经济增长假设在中国的进一步检验[J].湖南大学学报,2002,(3):124-128
[20]梁瑞,外商直接投资的出口贸易效应分析——以1994-2003年中国省际面板数据为例[J],经济与管理,2008,(11):87-91
[21]张为付,武齐.外国直接投资与我国对外贸易的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2005,(12):80-90
[22]宋延武,王虹.外国直接投资与我国出口结构和出口竞争力的关系研究——基于SPSS回归模型的实证分析与检验[J],国际贸易问题,2007,(5):16-22
[23]冼国明,严兵,张岸元.中国出口与外商在华直接投资——1983-2000年数据的计量研究[J],南开经济研究,2003,(1):45-48
[24]王洪亮,徐霞.日本对华贸易与直接投资的关系研究(1983-2001)[J],世界经济,2003,(8):28-37
[25]王剑.FDI与中国对外贸易的向量误差修正模型[J],数理统计与管理,2005,(5):6-10
[26]蔡小勇余子鹏.FDI对我国出口及地区差异影响的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2005,(11):93-96
[27]王俭,李雪松.外商直接投资与中国出口关系的面板数据分析[J ].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2005,(1):1 - 5
[28]邱斌,唐保庆,孙少勤.对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验[J],南开经济研究,2006,(4):32-46
[29]刘畅,吴国蔚.中国环渤海地区外商直接投资的经济增长效应[J].经济师,2008,(10):97-98
[30] Hymer, The International Operation of National Firms: A Study of Direct Foreign Investment. Cambridge Mass: The MIT Press, 1976.
[31] Rugman, A. M. Inside the Multinationals. London, Croom Held Ltd., 1981.
[32] Buckley, Peter J. and Casson, Mark, The Future of the Multinational Enterprise. London, MacMillan, 1976.
[33] Vernon, R. International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1966,(182).
[34] Dunning,John.The Determinations of International production .Oxford Economic papers, 1973.
[35] Williamson, O.E. Transaction-Cost Economies: The Governance of Contractual Relations. Journal of Law and Economics, 1979, (22):233-261
[36]Teece, David, The Multinational Enterprise: Market Failure and Market Power Considerations, Sloan Management Review, spring, 1981
[37] Bartlett C. A., Ghoshal S. Tap Your Subsidiaries For Global Reach. Harvard Business Review, 1986, (64):154-179
[38] Dunning, J. H, Internationalizing Porter’s Diamond. Management International Review, Second Quarter, 1993, (33)
[39] Lall S. The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-1998. QEH Working Paper, 2000, (44)
[40]朱钟棣,国际贸易学[M],上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005
[41]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年
[42]古扎拉蒂,计量经济学基础[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005
[43] Greenm. R.T. and Cunningham W.H., The Determinants of US Foreign Investment: an Empirical Examination, Management International Review, 1975, (15):113-121
[44] Dunning, J.K., Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests, Journal of International Business Studies, 1980, Spring/Summer, 317-335
[2] Markuson, James R. and Svensson Lars E.O., Trade in Goods and Factor with International Differences in Technology, International Economics Review, 1985, (26):175-192
[3]小岛清.对外贸易论[M].天津:南开大学出版社,1987年
[4] Markuson, James R. and Melvin, James R., Factor Movements and Commodity Trade as Complements, Journal of International Economics, 1983, (13):341-356
[5] Bhagwati, Jagdish N,Richard A.Brecher ,Elias Dinopoulos and T.N.Srinivasan., Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment and Welfare: A Political Economy Theoretical Model , Journal of Development Economics ,1987,(27):127-138
[6] Dinopoulos, Elias, Quid Pro Quo Foreign Investment, Economics and Politics, 1989, (2):145-160
[7] Lipsey and Weiss.M.Y., Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries ,Review of Economics and Statistics ,1981,(66):304-308
[8] Mariam Camarero and CecilioTamarit,Estimating the Export and Import Demand for Manufactured Goods: The Role of FDI, Review of world Economics, 2004, (40):347-375
[9]Belderbos R and Sleuwaegen. L. Tariff jumping FDI and export substitution: Japanese electronics firm in Europe. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 1998, (16): 601-638.
[10] Blonigen B.A., Tariff-Jumping Antidumping Duties, NBER, Working Papers, 7776, 2000,(7)
[11] Hein,S.,Trade, Strategy and the Dependency Hypothesis :A Comparison of Policy, Foreign Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America and East Asia, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1992,(340):497-521.
[12] Lucas, R., On the Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment Evidence from East and Southeast Asia, World Development, 1993, (21):391- 406
[13]Zhang, Qing and Felmingham, Bruce, The Relationship between Inward Direct Foreign Investment and China's Provincial Export Trade, China Economic Review, 2001, (12):82-99
[14] Bayoumi,T. and Lipsey,G., Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and RegionalTrade, IMF Working paper, IMF,1997,(103)
[15] Mucchielli.J.L., and Chedoe,S., Foreign Direct investment ,Export Performance and the Impact on Home Employment: A Empirical Analysis of French Firms. New Horizons in International Business, Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar, 1999
[16]Jun,K,W, and Singn,H., The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries, Transnational Coporations,1996,(8):67-105
[17]Dunning.J.H, Globalization, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Oxford: Elsevier, 1998, 49- 155.
[18] Cray, H.P., International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, Oxford: Elsevier, 1998, 19- 27.
[19]许和连,赖明勇.出口贸易带动经济增长假设在中国的进一步检验[J].湖南大学学报,2002,(3):124-128
[20]梁瑞,外商直接投资的出口贸易效应分析——以1994-2003年中国省际面板数据为例[J],经济与管理,2008,(11):87-91
[21]张为付,武齐.外国直接投资与我国对外贸易的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2005,(12):80-90
[22]宋延武,王虹.外国直接投资与我国出口结构和出口竞争力的关系研究——基于SPSS回归模型的实证分析与检验[J],国际贸易问题,2007,(5):16-22
[23]冼国明,严兵,张岸元.中国出口与外商在华直接投资——1983-2000年数据的计量研究[J],南开经济研究,2003,(1):45-48
[24]王洪亮,徐霞.日本对华贸易与直接投资的关系研究(1983-2001)[J],世界经济,2003,(8):28-37
[25]王剑.FDI与中国对外贸易的向量误差修正模型[J],数理统计与管理,2005,(5):6-10
[26]蔡小勇余子鹏.FDI对我国出口及地区差异影响的实证研究[J],国际贸易问题,2005,(11):93-96
[27]王俭,李雪松.外商直接投资与中国出口关系的面板数据分析[J ].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2005,(1):1 - 5
[28]邱斌,唐保庆,孙少勤.对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验[J],南开经济研究,2006,(4):32-46
[29]刘畅,吴国蔚.中国环渤海地区外商直接投资的经济增长效应[J].经济师,2008,(10):97-98
[30] Hymer, The International Operation of National Firms: A Study of Direct Foreign Investment. Cambridge Mass: The MIT Press, 1976.
[31] Rugman, A. M. Inside the Multinationals. London, Croom Held Ltd., 1981.
[32] Buckley, Peter J. and Casson, Mark, The Future of the Multinational Enterprise. London, MacMillan, 1976.
[33] Vernon, R. International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1966,(182).
[34] Dunning,John.The Determinations of International production .Oxford Economic papers, 1973.
[35] Williamson, O.E. Transaction-Cost Economies: The Governance of Contractual Relations. Journal of Law and Economics, 1979, (22):233-261
[36]Teece, David, The Multinational Enterprise: Market Failure and Market Power Considerations, Sloan Management Review, spring, 1981
[37] Bartlett C. A., Ghoshal S. Tap Your Subsidiaries For Global Reach. Harvard Business Review, 1986, (64):154-179
[38] Dunning, J. H, Internationalizing Porter’s Diamond. Management International Review, Second Quarter, 1993, (33)
[39] Lall S. The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-1998. QEH Working Paper, 2000, (44)
[40]朱钟棣,国际贸易学[M],上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005
[41]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006年
[42]古扎拉蒂,计量经济学基础[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005
[43] Greenm. R.T. and Cunningham W.H., The Determinants of US Foreign Investment: an Empirical Examination, Management International Review, 1975, (15):113-121
[44] Dunning, J.K., Toward an Eclectic Theory of International Production: Some Empirical Tests, Journal of International Business Studies, 1980, Spring/Summer, 317-335