突发性跨界水污染全过程风险评价研究
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摘要
突发重大环境污染事件是我国新时期社会经济发展中的重大安全隐患,是各级政府和全社会高度关注的环境问题。流域环境污染风险全过程评价问题是环境科学者研究的热点课题。
基于松花江特有流域的特征,本研究将松花江流域作为跨界环境风险的研究对象,通过环境风险事前、事中以及事后的评价研究,构建出环境污染风险全过程的风险评价体系,为环境污染风险的预警、风险的应急决策提供科学方法。
首先,根据松花江流域行业特点、潜在的跨界污染风险,筛选出典型风险源,对其进行风险识别,确定最大可信事件,并利用事故树估算事故发生的概率,运用暮景分析法确定事故源强;根据污染物性质的差异,选取适宜的污染物迁移模型,计算污染物对下游可能产生的影响,并在此基础上,运用改进AHP—模糊综合评价法建立了跨界风险源分级技术体系。
其次,考虑到挥发酚和石油烃在水中迁移和归宿途径的差异性,及二者对环境产生危害的途径不同,筛选出适宜的污染迁移模型,采用二维非稳态解析解研究挥发酚在流域中浓度的时空分布,采用费伊公式对石油烃类的溢油污染,进行油膜扩展面积,漂移位置以及对下游敏感点的危害研究。
通过比较现有的实时后果评价方法,基于污染带理论并结合实施后果评价的要求,提出了可以快速鉴别环境危害有无,表征环境危害强弱、描述事故危害情况、估计事故危害区大小和危害期长短的模式;并将其运用到典型风险源I事故中,该模式可以实时预测污染带的走势,对于跨界点可以预测到污染带到达时间及危害历时,为应急处理处置提供基础支持。
最后,针对事故发生后,水体中残存着持久性、低剂量的污染物,对人体和生态健康产生的影响,本文提出用熵值法计算对水生生态的风险,利用最大超额风险计算对人体健康的危害。
The sudden fatal environmental pollution events are China's major security risks and the environmental issues which attract extensive attention of all levels of governments and the whole society during the new era of socio-economic development. The risk evaluation of the whole process of the river region pollution events has become a hot research topic.
Songhua river region is chosen as the object of the cross-border environmental risk study based on the unique characteristics of Songhua river. The risk assessment system of the whole environmental pollution event process is set up for providing early warning of environmental contamination risk and emergency decision-making scientifically through evaluation research from the three aspects of advance, going on, afterwards.
First, Harbin gasification plant and oil production works at Linjiang double of 30 area are selected as the typical risk sources according to industry characteristics of the Songhua river region and the potential risk of cross-border pollution. The risks are identified, and the biggest credible events are determined. Fault tree is used to determine the probability of the accident, and the incident source strength is confirmed by scenario analysis method. The appropriate pollutant transportation model is selected to calculate the possible effect to lower course of river caused by the pollutants according to the differences in the nature of pollutants. And risk classification system of the cross-border risk sources is established by improved AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method based on the result.
Secondly, appropriate pollution transportation models are selected considering the enormous variability in water transportation, end-result and the ways in which they cause harm to the environment between the volatile phenol and petroleum hydrocarbons. The time-space distribution in Songhua river region of the volatile phenol is determined by the two-dimensional non-steady-state analytical solution, and Fahey formula is used to study the oil spill pollution, the extended oil film, the drift location, as well as the harm to the sensitive points downriver.
A pattern which can be used to identify the existence of environmental hazards, characterize the strength of environmental hazards, describe the accident hazard condition, and estimate the size of the accident hazardous area and the length of the accident hazard quickly is proposed based on the pollution band theory by comparing the existing real-time evaluation method and combining the requirements of consequence assessment implementation. The trend of the pollution band, the arrival time of the pollution band and the hazard duration for the cross-border points can be real-time estimated through the pattern, so it is used in Harbin gasification plant accident to provide a basic support for emergency treatment and disposal
Finally, entropy method is proposed to calculate the aquatic ecological risk, and human health hazard is measured by the greatest excess risk, aiming at the impact of human and ecological health caused by the persistent, low doses of pollutants remaining in the water.
基于松花江特有流域的特征,本研究将松花江流域作为跨界环境风险的研究对象,通过环境风险事前、事中以及事后的评价研究,构建出环境污染风险全过程的风险评价体系,为环境污染风险的预警、风险的应急决策提供科学方法。
首先,根据松花江流域行业特点、潜在的跨界污染风险,筛选出典型风险源,对其进行风险识别,确定最大可信事件,并利用事故树估算事故发生的概率,运用暮景分析法确定事故源强;根据污染物性质的差异,选取适宜的污染物迁移模型,计算污染物对下游可能产生的影响,并在此基础上,运用改进AHP—模糊综合评价法建立了跨界风险源分级技术体系。
其次,考虑到挥发酚和石油烃在水中迁移和归宿途径的差异性,及二者对环境产生危害的途径不同,筛选出适宜的污染迁移模型,采用二维非稳态解析解研究挥发酚在流域中浓度的时空分布,采用费伊公式对石油烃类的溢油污染,进行油膜扩展面积,漂移位置以及对下游敏感点的危害研究。
通过比较现有的实时后果评价方法,基于污染带理论并结合实施后果评价的要求,提出了可以快速鉴别环境危害有无,表征环境危害强弱、描述事故危害情况、估计事故危害区大小和危害期长短的模式;并将其运用到典型风险源I事故中,该模式可以实时预测污染带的走势,对于跨界点可以预测到污染带到达时间及危害历时,为应急处理处置提供基础支持。
最后,针对事故发生后,水体中残存着持久性、低剂量的污染物,对人体和生态健康产生的影响,本文提出用熵值法计算对水生生态的风险,利用最大超额风险计算对人体健康的危害。
The sudden fatal environmental pollution events are China's major security risks and the environmental issues which attract extensive attention of all levels of governments and the whole society during the new era of socio-economic development. The risk evaluation of the whole process of the river region pollution events has become a hot research topic.
Songhua river region is chosen as the object of the cross-border environmental risk study based on the unique characteristics of Songhua river. The risk assessment system of the whole environmental pollution event process is set up for providing early warning of environmental contamination risk and emergency decision-making scientifically through evaluation research from the three aspects of advance, going on, afterwards.
First, Harbin gasification plant and oil production works at Linjiang double of 30 area are selected as the typical risk sources according to industry characteristics of the Songhua river region and the potential risk of cross-border pollution. The risks are identified, and the biggest credible events are determined. Fault tree is used to determine the probability of the accident, and the incident source strength is confirmed by scenario analysis method. The appropriate pollutant transportation model is selected to calculate the possible effect to lower course of river caused by the pollutants according to the differences in the nature of pollutants. And risk classification system of the cross-border risk sources is established by improved AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method based on the result.
Secondly, appropriate pollution transportation models are selected considering the enormous variability in water transportation, end-result and the ways in which they cause harm to the environment between the volatile phenol and petroleum hydrocarbons. The time-space distribution in Songhua river region of the volatile phenol is determined by the two-dimensional non-steady-state analytical solution, and Fahey formula is used to study the oil spill pollution, the extended oil film, the drift location, as well as the harm to the sensitive points downriver.
A pattern which can be used to identify the existence of environmental hazards, characterize the strength of environmental hazards, describe the accident hazard condition, and estimate the size of the accident hazardous area and the length of the accident hazard quickly is proposed based on the pollution band theory by comparing the existing real-time evaluation method and combining the requirements of consequence assessment implementation. The trend of the pollution band, the arrival time of the pollution band and the hazard duration for the cross-border points can be real-time estimated through the pattern, so it is used in Harbin gasification plant accident to provide a basic support for emergency treatment and disposal
Finally, entropy method is proposed to calculate the aquatic ecological risk, and human health hazard is measured by the greatest excess risk, aiming at the impact of human and ecological health caused by the persistent, low doses of pollutants remaining in the water.
引文
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2.曾光明,钟政林,曾北危.环境风险评价中的不确定问题.中国环境科学, 1998, (3): 46~49
3.毛小苓,刘阳生.国内外环境风险评价研究进展.应用基础与工程科学学报. 2003, 11(3): 266~273
4.高继军,张力平,黄圣彪等.北京市饮用水源水重金属污染物健康风险的初步评价.环境科学. 2004, 25(2):47~50
5.胡雨前.杭州市饮用水中三卤甲烷的健康风险评价研究.浙江大学硕士论文.2005.
6.僮祥英.模糊神经网络在埋地燃气管道事故后果评价中的应用研究.贵州大学硕士论文. 2006
7.谌宏伟.污染场地健康风险评价.中国地质大学硕士论文. 2006
8.何进朝,李嘉.河流突发性污染事故风险评价方法的探讨.水道港口, 2006, 27(4): 269~272
9.张羽.城市水污染事件风险评价体系及方法的实证研究.华东师范大学硕士论文. 2006
10.张红鸽.基于灰色系统理论的危险源辨识方法研究.太原理工大学硕士论文. 2007
11.李丽娜.上海市多介质环境中持久性毒害污染物的健康风险评价.华东师范大学.2007
12.孔祥磊.氯碱行业环境风险评价技术框架的构建及应用.山东师范大学硕士论文. 2006
13.王伟.基于GIS的大气泄漏事故环境风险预测系统的研究.大连海事大学硕士论文. 2007
14.黄磊,李鹏程,刘白薇.长江三角洲地区地下水污染健康风险评价.安全与环境工程. 2008, 15(2): 26~29
15.段小丽,王宗爽,于云江等.垃圾填埋场地下水污染对居民健康的风险评价.环境监测管理与技术. 2008,2 0(3): 20~24
16.刘庆,王静,史衍玺等.基于GIS的县域土壤重金属健康风险评价_以浙江省慈溪市为例.土壤通报. 2008, 39(3): 634~639
17. Nikolaos P.Veikos, Harilaos N.Psarafits.Spill accident modeling:a crirical survey of event of the event-decision network in the context of IMO’s formal safety assessment.Joumal of Hazardous Materials 107(2004):59~66.
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