人民币国际化下我国短期资本流动与反跨境洗钱研究
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摘要
自改革开放以来,我国连续三十多年保持高速的经济增长态势,现已经成为世界第二大经济体以及发展中国家中吸引外商直接投资最多的国家。然而,随着经济的高速发展,尤其是银行等金融业的逐步开放,国际热钱流入与国内资本外逃等跨境短期资本非正规转移规模愈趋庞大。在人民币国际化的大背景下,随着我国资本项目逐步实现可自由兑换,以洗钱为最终目的的跨境资本流动,必将对我国宏观经济稳定以及金融安全造成巨大的冲击。
本文从反跨境洗钱的视角,首先分析了短期资本流动与热钱流入、资本外逃这三者之间的关系,总结了非法短期资本的流通渠道,并估算其规模；其次,提出了在人民币国际化这个大背景下,针对跨境洗钱的定义、渠道方法以及危害进行了重点论述；再次,建立连续动态有约束的模型,模型中包含了一般性洗钱以及跨境洗钱这两种情况,并讨论了已建立的反洗钱监管措施对社会洗钱资本存量的影响；进一步,以前文中非法短期资本流动规模的估算结果作为因变量,建立多元线性回归模型,实证研究我国反洗钱监管下不同的措施对跨境洗钱规模的影响,在一定程度上对前面的理论模型进行了验证；最后,针对上文的分析论述,从加强反洗钱监管水平、细化反洗钱政策措施、培养高素质人才队伍等三个方面提出针对性的政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained growth rapidly. Nowadays, China has become the world's second largest economy, and the country which attracts the most foreign direct investment in developing countries. However, with the rapid development of the economy, especially for the gradual opening up of banks and other financial industries, the size of illegal short-term capital flow (such as hot money inflow and capital flight) becomes larger and larger. With the progressive realization of capital projects freely convertible, the capital flow for the purpose of money laundering will certainly damage our country's macroeconomic stability and financial security under RMB internationalization.
In this paper, from the perspective of cross-border money laundering, first analyses the relationship of short-term capital flow, hot money inflow and capital flight, summarizes the channels of illegal short-term capital flow, and estimates its size; Secondly, discusses the definition, methods as well as the harm of cross-border money laundering; Thirdly, establishes a continuous dynamic constrained model, the model contains both general money laundering and cross-border money laundering and discusses the established anti-money laundering regulatory measures on the social money laundering capital stock; Further, establishes the multiple linear regression model with the dependent variable of illegal short-term capital flow's size, researches the impact of different measures on cross-border money laundering, and to a certain extent tests and verifies the previous theoretical model. Finally, this paper puts forward feasible suggestions from the improving of anti-money laundering regulatory level, refinement of policies and measures to combat money-laundering and the training of anti-money laundering experts.
本文从反跨境洗钱的视角,首先分析了短期资本流动与热钱流入、资本外逃这三者之间的关系,总结了非法短期资本的流通渠道,并估算其规模；其次,提出了在人民币国际化这个大背景下,针对跨境洗钱的定义、渠道方法以及危害进行了重点论述；再次,建立连续动态有约束的模型,模型中包含了一般性洗钱以及跨境洗钱这两种情况,并讨论了已建立的反洗钱监管措施对社会洗钱资本存量的影响；进一步,以前文中非法短期资本流动规模的估算结果作为因变量,建立多元线性回归模型,实证研究我国反洗钱监管下不同的措施对跨境洗钱规模的影响,在一定程度上对前面的理论模型进行了验证；最后,针对上文的分析论述,从加强反洗钱监管水平、细化反洗钱政策措施、培养高素质人才队伍等三个方面提出针对性的政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained growth rapidly. Nowadays, China has become the world's second largest economy, and the country which attracts the most foreign direct investment in developing countries. However, with the rapid development of the economy, especially for the gradual opening up of banks and other financial industries, the size of illegal short-term capital flow (such as hot money inflow and capital flight) becomes larger and larger. With the progressive realization of capital projects freely convertible, the capital flow for the purpose of money laundering will certainly damage our country's macroeconomic stability and financial security under RMB internationalization.
In this paper, from the perspective of cross-border money laundering, first analyses the relationship of short-term capital flow, hot money inflow and capital flight, summarizes the channels of illegal short-term capital flow, and estimates its size; Secondly, discusses the definition, methods as well as the harm of cross-border money laundering; Thirdly, establishes a continuous dynamic constrained model, the model contains both general money laundering and cross-border money laundering and discusses the established anti-money laundering regulatory measures on the social money laundering capital stock; Further, establishes the multiple linear regression model with the dependent variable of illegal short-term capital flow's size, researches the impact of different measures on cross-border money laundering, and to a certain extent tests and verifies the previous theoretical model. Finally, this paper puts forward feasible suggestions from the improving of anti-money laundering regulatory level, refinement of policies and measures to combat money-laundering and the training of anti-money laundering experts.
引文
[1]高海红,余永定.人民币国际化的的含义与条件[J].国际经济评论.2010,
(01)：46-64.
[2]李嘉.人民币国际化利弊分析及路径选择[J].特区经济.2011,(09)：72-74.
[3]李琳.人民币国际化成本收益分析及推进策略[J].征信.2011,(02)：90-92.
[4]郑锐敏.人民币国际化的成本收益分析[J].金融管理与研究.2011,(07).
[5]陶士贵.人民币区域化的初步构想[J].管理现代化.2002,(05)：56-60.
[6]刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究.2005,(18).
[7]姜波克,罗得志.最优货币区理论综述兼述欧元、亚元问题[J].世界经济文汇.2002,(01)：73-80.
[8]赵海宽.人民币可能发展成为世界货币之一[J].经济研究.2003,(03)：54-60.
[9]巴曙松.人民币国际化从哪里切入[J].金融经济.2003,(08).
[10]李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济.2004,(02)：21-34.
[11]曹红辉.国际化战略中的人民币区域化[J].中国金融.2006,(05)：14-15.
[12]孙健,魏修华,唐爱朋.从三大货币发展历程看人民币国际化战略的路径选择[J].亚太经济.2005,(02).
[13]张晓朴.跨境资本流动、人民币汇率与国际收支平衡[J].中国金融,2005,(08)： 37-38.
[14]兰振华,陈玲.中国短期资本流动规模测算及其影响因素的实证分析[J].金融经济,2007,(04)：48-50.
[15]Ying, Y H, Kim Y. An empirical analysis on capital flows:the case of Korea and Mexico [J]. Southern Economic Journal.2001,67 (04):954-968.
[16]Kim, Y. Cause of capital flows in developing countries [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance.2000,19 (02):235-253.
[17]鄂志寰.资本流动与金融稳定相关关系研究[J].金融研究,2000,(07)：80-87.
[18]金洪飞,李子奈.资本流动与货币危机[J].金融研究,2001,(12)：43-50.
[19]管涛,曾卫京.国际短期资本流动对我国外汇供求的影响[J].管理世界,1997,(01)：88-93.
[20]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004,(09).
[21]于杏娣.国际短期资本流动对本外币政策及其协调的影响[J].世界经济研究,2002,(06)：33-37.
[22]李翀.短期资本流动的风险与我国资本项目的开放[J].长白学刊,2003,(01)：66-69.
[23]Araujo, R A. An evolutionary game theory approach to combat money laundering [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(01):70-78.
[24]Araujo, R A, Siva Moreira T B. An Inter-temporal Model of Dirty Money [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2005.8(03):260-262.
[25]Araujo, R A. Assessing the efficiency of the anti-money laundering regulation:an incentive-based approach [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control. 2008,11(01):67-75.
[26]Vaithilingam, S, Nair, M. Factor affecting money laundering:lesson for developing countries [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control. 2007,10(03):352-366.
[27]Araujo, R A. The effects of money laundering and terrorism on capital accumulation and consumption [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control. 2006,9(03):265-271
[28]Lai, L. Misuse of securities and futures market by money launderers-a general overview [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(01):66-69.
[29]Linn, C J. How terrorists exploit gaps in us anti-money laundering laws to secrete plunder [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2005,8(03):200-214.
[30]Irwin, S M, Choo K R. An analysis of money laundering and terrorism financing typologies [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2012,15(01):85-111.
[31]Simonava, A. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering:problems and solitions [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2011,14(04):346-358.
[32]Yan, L, Ai, L, Tang, J. Risk-based AML regulation on internet payment services in China [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2011,14(01):93-101.
[33]Mugarura, N. The global anti-money laundering court as a judicial and institutional imperative [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2011,14(01): 60-78.
[34]Mugarura, N. The effect of corruption factor in harnessing global anti-money laundering regimes [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(03):272-281.
[35]He, P. A typological study on money laundering [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(01):15-32.
[36]Subbotina, N. Discussion on the role of epistemic community in Russian AML regime [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2009,12(03):254-267.
[37]Magnusson, D. The costs of implementing the anti-money laundering regulations in Sweden [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2009,12(02):101-112.
[38]杨胜刚,何靖,曾翼.反洗钱中监管机构和商业银行的博弈与委托代理问题研究[J].金融研究,2007,(01)：71-83.
[39]朱宝明.我国银行业反洗钱的成本与收益分析——从博弈论的视角[J].金融研究,2004,(04)：57-65.
[40]原永中,张新福.商业银行和中央银行在反洗钱问题上的博弈[J].山西财经大学学报,2003,(06)：70-73.
[41]严立新.银行业反洗钱机制研究——约束条件下激励机制框架的构建[D].上海：复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所,2006.
[42]高增安.国家反洗钱的理论与战略探讨[J].社会科学.2010,02：24-29.
[43]曾瑞声,催荣伟.货币跨境流动的反洗钱监管——基于跨境电子收付报告的视角[J].南方金融,2012,(03)：46-49.
[44]郭鸿军.我国反跨境洗钱金融情报中心运行模式探讨[J].黑龙江金融,2005,(06)：32-33.
[45]陈晖.内地与港澳跨境洗钱犯罪的刑事司法协助问题[J].西南财经大学学报,2006,8(05)：32-37.
[46]樊永勤.人民币跨境流通对边境银行业反洗钱的影响及对策研究——以云南边境为例[J].亚太经济,2010,(05)：29-33.
[47]罗刚.云南跨境洗钱犯罪现状及对策研究[J].西部法学评论,2011,(01)：101-106.
[48]张人文.边境民族地区人民币跨境流动对反洗钱的影响及建议——以江城县为例[J].时代金融,2011,(11)：60-61.
[49]王永.异常跨境资金流动挑战反洗钱——以新疆塔城地区为例[J].中国金融,2011,(02)：83-84.
[50]吴春龙,郭炜.浅谈如何建立反跨境洗钱的有效机制[J].南方金融,2002,(10)：22-24.
[51]李南,邢思雅.人民币跨境流通对反洗钱的影响及相关对策研究[J].学术论坛,2010,(12)：142-145.
[52]许朝霞.我国国际资本流动与反跨境洗钱[J].金融纵横,2007,(22)：31-34.
[53]高增安.贸易洗钱与反洗钱研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2011.
(01)：46-64.
[2]李嘉.人民币国际化利弊分析及路径选择[J].特区经济.2011,(09)：72-74.
[3]李琳.人民币国际化成本收益分析及推进策略[J].征信.2011,(02)：90-92.
[4]郑锐敏.人民币国际化的成本收益分析[J].金融管理与研究.2011,(07).
[5]陶士贵.人民币区域化的初步构想[J].管理现代化.2002,(05)：56-60.
[6]刘爱文.人民币的国际化之路[J].商业研究.2005,(18).
[7]姜波克,罗得志.最优货币区理论综述兼述欧元、亚元问题[J].世界经济文汇.2002,(01)：73-80.
[8]赵海宽.人民币可能发展成为世界货币之一[J].经济研究.2003,(03)：54-60.
[9]巴曙松.人民币国际化从哪里切入[J].金融经济.2003,(08).
[10]李晓,李俊久,丁一兵.论人民币的亚洲化[J].世界经济.2004,(02)：21-34.
[11]曹红辉.国际化战略中的人民币区域化[J].中国金融.2006,(05)：14-15.
[12]孙健,魏修华,唐爱朋.从三大货币发展历程看人民币国际化战略的路径选择[J].亚太经济.2005,(02).
[13]张晓朴.跨境资本流动、人民币汇率与国际收支平衡[J].中国金融,2005,(08)： 37-38.
[14]兰振华,陈玲.中国短期资本流动规模测算及其影响因素的实证分析[J].金融经济,2007,(04)：48-50.
[15]Ying, Y H, Kim Y. An empirical analysis on capital flows:the case of Korea and Mexico [J]. Southern Economic Journal.2001,67 (04):954-968.
[16]Kim, Y. Cause of capital flows in developing countries [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance.2000,19 (02):235-253.
[17]鄂志寰.资本流动与金融稳定相关关系研究[J].金融研究,2000,(07)：80-87.
[18]金洪飞,李子奈.资本流动与货币危机[J].金融研究,2001,(12)：43-50.
[19]管涛,曾卫京.国际短期资本流动对我国外汇供求的影响[J].管理世界,1997,(01)：88-93.
[20]李婧,管涛,何帆.人民币跨境流通的现状及对中国经济的影响[J].管理世界,2004,(09).
[21]于杏娣.国际短期资本流动对本外币政策及其协调的影响[J].世界经济研究,2002,(06)：33-37.
[22]李翀.短期资本流动的风险与我国资本项目的开放[J].长白学刊,2003,(01)：66-69.
[23]Araujo, R A. An evolutionary game theory approach to combat money laundering [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(01):70-78.
[24]Araujo, R A, Siva Moreira T B. An Inter-temporal Model of Dirty Money [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2005.8(03):260-262.
[25]Araujo, R A. Assessing the efficiency of the anti-money laundering regulation:an incentive-based approach [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control. 2008,11(01):67-75.
[26]Vaithilingam, S, Nair, M. Factor affecting money laundering:lesson for developing countries [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control. 2007,10(03):352-366.
[27]Araujo, R A. The effects of money laundering and terrorism on capital accumulation and consumption [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control. 2006,9(03):265-271
[28]Lai, L. Misuse of securities and futures market by money launderers-a general overview [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(01):66-69.
[29]Linn, C J. How terrorists exploit gaps in us anti-money laundering laws to secrete plunder [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2005,8(03):200-214.
[30]Irwin, S M, Choo K R. An analysis of money laundering and terrorism financing typologies [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2012,15(01):85-111.
[31]Simonava, A. The risk-based approach to anti-money laundering:problems and solitions [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2011,14(04):346-358.
[32]Yan, L, Ai, L, Tang, J. Risk-based AML regulation on internet payment services in China [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2011,14(01):93-101.
[33]Mugarura, N. The global anti-money laundering court as a judicial and institutional imperative [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2011,14(01): 60-78.
[34]Mugarura, N. The effect of corruption factor in harnessing global anti-money laundering regimes [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(03):272-281.
[35]He, P. A typological study on money laundering [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2010,13(01):15-32.
[36]Subbotina, N. Discussion on the role of epistemic community in Russian AML regime [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2009,12(03):254-267.
[37]Magnusson, D. The costs of implementing the anti-money laundering regulations in Sweden [J]. Journal of Money Laundering Control.2009,12(02):101-112.
[38]杨胜刚,何靖,曾翼.反洗钱中监管机构和商业银行的博弈与委托代理问题研究[J].金融研究,2007,(01)：71-83.
[39]朱宝明.我国银行业反洗钱的成本与收益分析——从博弈论的视角[J].金融研究,2004,(04)：57-65.
[40]原永中,张新福.商业银行和中央银行在反洗钱问题上的博弈[J].山西财经大学学报,2003,(06)：70-73.
[41]严立新.银行业反洗钱机制研究——约束条件下激励机制框架的构建[D].上海：复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所,2006.
[42]高增安.国家反洗钱的理论与战略探讨[J].社会科学.2010,02：24-29.
[43]曾瑞声,催荣伟.货币跨境流动的反洗钱监管——基于跨境电子收付报告的视角[J].南方金融,2012,(03)：46-49.
[44]郭鸿军.我国反跨境洗钱金融情报中心运行模式探讨[J].黑龙江金融,2005,(06)：32-33.
[45]陈晖.内地与港澳跨境洗钱犯罪的刑事司法协助问题[J].西南财经大学学报,2006,8(05)：32-37.
[46]樊永勤.人民币跨境流通对边境银行业反洗钱的影响及对策研究——以云南边境为例[J].亚太经济,2010,(05)：29-33.
[47]罗刚.云南跨境洗钱犯罪现状及对策研究[J].西部法学评论,2011,(01)：101-106.
[48]张人文.边境民族地区人民币跨境流动对反洗钱的影响及建议——以江城县为例[J].时代金融,2011,(11)：60-61.
[49]王永.异常跨境资金流动挑战反洗钱——以新疆塔城地区为例[J].中国金融,2011,(02)：83-84.
[50]吴春龙,郭炜.浅谈如何建立反跨境洗钱的有效机制[J].南方金融,2002,(10)：22-24.
[51]李南,邢思雅.人民币跨境流通对反洗钱的影响及相关对策研究[J].学术论坛,2010,(12)：142-145.
[52]许朝霞.我国国际资本流动与反跨境洗钱[J].金融纵横,2007,(22)：31-34.
[53]高增安.贸易洗钱与反洗钱研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2011.