劳动力市场分割对农民工就业影响的实证研究
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摘要
本文研究我国农民工就业问题,为农民工就业问题寻找合适解,进而为国家“三农问题”和“就业问题”寻找部分解。影响农民工就业的因素众多,论文首先在对国内外文献综述的基础上,着重对我国劳动力市场分割的存在形式和形成原因进行论述,然后利用主成分分析方法获得劳动力市场分割是农民工就业最重要影响因素,对农民工就业影响因素进行实证分析、机理分析和对策研究,最后得出论文的研究结论、实现研究目的。通过研究取得了以下成果：
1、论述了我国劳动力市场分割主要表现为城乡分割、行业分割、单位分割和地区分割,从这四类分割的形成过程来看,我国劳动力市场分割实际上是制度造成的,因而是一种制度性分割；
2、利用主成分因素分析方法(PCA方法)获得了农民工就业最重要的影响因素。研究发现,影响我国农民工就业的因素众多,劳动力市场分割和农民工自身条件是第一主成分因素。在转轴后的因素负荷矩阵中,劳动力市场分割的影响因素负荷达到0.865,是第一主成分因素里权重最重的因素,即劳动力市场分割是影响农民工就业最重要的因素。
3、采用线性比例法无量纲化方法,将劳动力市场分割程度这一虚拟变量转化为定量解释变量,构建农民工就业模型,来实证分析劳动力市场分割对农民工就业的影响。在实证分析过程中,利用OLS方法、相关系数法、辅助回归方法和GLS方法等计量经济分析方法不断对模型进行优化,用t检验、F检验、D-W检验、游程检验、D-W检验ADF检验、Johansen协整检验和包含协整约束的Granger因果检验等检验方法来验证模型的有效性。实证分析得到了如下结论：农民工就业数量与劳动力市场的城乡分割程度显著负相关、与行业分割程度显著负相关、与单位分割程度负相关；在地区分割程度对农民工就业影响忽略不计的情况下,有利于农民工就业模型的优化,说明地区分割对我国农民工就业的影响已不重要；劳动力市场的城乡分割、行业分割、单位分割和地区分割联合对农民工就业有显著影响；
4、获得了农民工就业的效用函数、供给函数和需求函数的具体形式,利用现代劳动经济学的有关原理,通过深入分析探讨了劳动力市场分割对农民工就业的影响机理。根据就业意向调查,假定劳动力市场不存在分割,我国农民工的供给曲线比需求曲线平缓,最终将形成发散型珠网,从而将造成劳动力市场的波动和不稳定。我国由于存在劳动力市场分割,农民工就业受到一定的制约,使得农民工就业的工资供给弹性小于用人单位对农民工的工资需求弹性、农民工的供给曲线S比需求曲线D陡峭,形成的是收敛型珠网。劳动力市场分割对就业的影响并不全是负面效应,政府通过适当政策干预保持劳动力市场适度分割,对农民工就业均衡市场形成的正面效应同样不可忽视。
5、政府尽可能地消除制度性的劳动力市场分割对农民工就业的不利影响,逐步建立一个具有竞争性的劳动力市场,扩大农民工就业。扩大农民工就业的对策措施应该围绕实证分析和机理研究的结论来设计：土地流转政府主导和高效推进,剥离城市户籍上的福利成分、实行农民退休养老制度、把建制镇建成小城市,加强农村电力、交通和通讯基础设施建设；降低垄断行业与竞争行业的收入差距,调整产业结构增加第三产业就业比重,加大农民工人力资本投资；对机关、企事业等所有具有独立法人资格的单位一律实行全员劳动合同制、减少对农民工就业的身份歧视和发展农民工非正规就业等是本文推崇的对策措施。
从论文的研究结论来看,选取劳动力市场分割视角来研究农民工就业问题独到新颖,论文成果有助于政府管理部门设计合意的对策措施,我国农民工虽然严重供大于求,但只要政策适当,农民工就业问题是完全可以解决的。
The paper focuses on the research of the employment of migrant workers, seeks the appropriate solution for the problem, as well as finds the partial solution for the "Three Rural Issues" and "the problem of employment". As we all know, a large number of factors have great impact on the employment of migrant workers. On the basis of literature review at home and abroad, the paper firstly sorts out the status of Chinese labor market segmentation, then it uses the principal componet analysis to extract the most important factor:the labor market segmentation and conducts the empirical research, mechanism studies and research in policy in regard to the effects of labor market segmentation on the employment of migrant workers. Last but not the least, it gets the conclusion of researches and achieves the research goals. The achievements through researches are as follows:
1. The paper elaborates on four types of labor market segmentation of China, namely, the separation between town and country, separation among industries, unit separation and region separation. In terms of the establishment of these four types of segmentation, the labor market segmentation of China is in effect the institutional segmentation because it results from institution.
2. Adoption of the principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the most important influencing factor on the employment of migrant workers, the research finds that the first principal component factor is the labor market segmentation and qualification of the migrant workers. In the matrix of factor loading after the axis of ratation, the influencing factor loading of labor market segmentation reaches 0.865 and it becomes the most powerful factor in the first principal component factors. Moreover, it also proves the labor market segmentation has magnificent impact on the employment of migrant workers.
3. With the methods of linear scaling and dimensionless, it is necessary to turn the dummy variable of labor market segmentation degree into quantitative explanatory variable and to construct employment model to carry out an empirical study based on the effects of labor market segmentation on the migrant worker employment. In the course of empirical study, it is important to continuously optimize the employment model through a series of methods, like quantitative analytical method, OLS method, correlation coefficient method, auxiliary regression method and GLS method. On the other hand, it is also necessary to verify the validity of employment model via a succession of tests, like T test, F test, D-W test, runs test, ADF test, Johansen Cointegration test and Granger Causality test. The results show that:the employment figures of migrant workers is negatively correlated with the separation between town and country, the separation among industries and unit separation; the region separation, under the condition of negligent effects on the migrant workers employment, is advantageous to the optimization of migrant workers employment model and is not important on the employment any longer; the combination of the separation between town and country, separation among industries, unit separation and region separation has remarkable influence on the employment of migrant workers.
4. Take Changsha city for example, the field survey found the concrete formats of three functions, namely, utility function, supply function and demand function, which have good representativeness. The paper adopts some theories on modern labor economics and analyses in depth the influencing mechanism of each market separation on the employment of migrant workers. According to a survey of employment intention, under the assumption of no separation in the labor market, the supply curve of migrant workers shows a easier one than the demand curve and finally forms the divergent cobweb, which brings about the fluctuation and instability. In effect, labor market segmentation of China imposes certain restrictions on the employment of migrant workers, such as, the wage elasticity of supply is smaller than the wage elasticity of demand, the supply curve S is steeper than the demand curve D and finally forms the convergent cobweb. As the Chinese saying goes, one coin has two sides. Therefore, the effects of labor market segmentation on the employment are not all negative, and the government should keep the appropriate separation of labor market through right policy intervention. It is essential to pay attention to the positive effects on the market equilibrium of employment.
5. The government can foster market mechanism through rational market intervention to eliminate the adverse effects of the institutional market segmentation on the employment of migrant workers and progressively establish a competitive labor market. The policy measures on the management of labor market segmentation and job enlargement of migrant workers must center on the empirical model and mechanism study:government lead and effectively promote the land circulation, strip the welfare part of registered city residence, carry out the system of old-age retirement pension, turn the organic towns into small cities, strengthen infrastructure of power, transportation and communication, bridge the income gap of monopolized industry and competitive industry, readjust the industry structure and increase the employment proportion of tertiary industry, intensify the human capital investment of migrant workers, implement the all-member labor contract system in the government departments and enterprises and institutions with the status of independent legal entity, get rid of the discrimination of migrant workers and develop the informal employment of migrant workers.
From the view of paper's conclusion, the study of employment of migrant workers from the perspective of the labor market segmentation is rather unique and original. What is more, the achievements of paper provide the well-designed management policy to the government administrative departments. Though the supply exceeds the demand of migrant workers in China, the problem of employment can be fully resolved with appropriate policies.
1、论述了我国劳动力市场分割主要表现为城乡分割、行业分割、单位分割和地区分割,从这四类分割的形成过程来看,我国劳动力市场分割实际上是制度造成的,因而是一种制度性分割；
2、利用主成分因素分析方法(PCA方法)获得了农民工就业最重要的影响因素。研究发现,影响我国农民工就业的因素众多,劳动力市场分割和农民工自身条件是第一主成分因素。在转轴后的因素负荷矩阵中,劳动力市场分割的影响因素负荷达到0.865,是第一主成分因素里权重最重的因素,即劳动力市场分割是影响农民工就业最重要的因素。
3、采用线性比例法无量纲化方法,将劳动力市场分割程度这一虚拟变量转化为定量解释变量,构建农民工就业模型,来实证分析劳动力市场分割对农民工就业的影响。在实证分析过程中,利用OLS方法、相关系数法、辅助回归方法和GLS方法等计量经济分析方法不断对模型进行优化,用t检验、F检验、D-W检验、游程检验、D-W检验ADF检验、Johansen协整检验和包含协整约束的Granger因果检验等检验方法来验证模型的有效性。实证分析得到了如下结论：农民工就业数量与劳动力市场的城乡分割程度显著负相关、与行业分割程度显著负相关、与单位分割程度负相关；在地区分割程度对农民工就业影响忽略不计的情况下,有利于农民工就业模型的优化,说明地区分割对我国农民工就业的影响已不重要；劳动力市场的城乡分割、行业分割、单位分割和地区分割联合对农民工就业有显著影响；
4、获得了农民工就业的效用函数、供给函数和需求函数的具体形式,利用现代劳动经济学的有关原理,通过深入分析探讨了劳动力市场分割对农民工就业的影响机理。根据就业意向调查,假定劳动力市场不存在分割,我国农民工的供给曲线比需求曲线平缓,最终将形成发散型珠网,从而将造成劳动力市场的波动和不稳定。我国由于存在劳动力市场分割,农民工就业受到一定的制约,使得农民工就业的工资供给弹性小于用人单位对农民工的工资需求弹性、农民工的供给曲线S比需求曲线D陡峭,形成的是收敛型珠网。劳动力市场分割对就业的影响并不全是负面效应,政府通过适当政策干预保持劳动力市场适度分割,对农民工就业均衡市场形成的正面效应同样不可忽视。
5、政府尽可能地消除制度性的劳动力市场分割对农民工就业的不利影响,逐步建立一个具有竞争性的劳动力市场,扩大农民工就业。扩大农民工就业的对策措施应该围绕实证分析和机理研究的结论来设计：土地流转政府主导和高效推进,剥离城市户籍上的福利成分、实行农民退休养老制度、把建制镇建成小城市,加强农村电力、交通和通讯基础设施建设；降低垄断行业与竞争行业的收入差距,调整产业结构增加第三产业就业比重,加大农民工人力资本投资；对机关、企事业等所有具有独立法人资格的单位一律实行全员劳动合同制、减少对农民工就业的身份歧视和发展农民工非正规就业等是本文推崇的对策措施。
从论文的研究结论来看,选取劳动力市场分割视角来研究农民工就业问题独到新颖,论文成果有助于政府管理部门设计合意的对策措施,我国农民工虽然严重供大于求,但只要政策适当,农民工就业问题是完全可以解决的。
The paper focuses on the research of the employment of migrant workers, seeks the appropriate solution for the problem, as well as finds the partial solution for the "Three Rural Issues" and "the problem of employment". As we all know, a large number of factors have great impact on the employment of migrant workers. On the basis of literature review at home and abroad, the paper firstly sorts out the status of Chinese labor market segmentation, then it uses the principal componet analysis to extract the most important factor:the labor market segmentation and conducts the empirical research, mechanism studies and research in policy in regard to the effects of labor market segmentation on the employment of migrant workers. Last but not the least, it gets the conclusion of researches and achieves the research goals. The achievements through researches are as follows:
1. The paper elaborates on four types of labor market segmentation of China, namely, the separation between town and country, separation among industries, unit separation and region separation. In terms of the establishment of these four types of segmentation, the labor market segmentation of China is in effect the institutional segmentation because it results from institution.
2. Adoption of the principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the most important influencing factor on the employment of migrant workers, the research finds that the first principal component factor is the labor market segmentation and qualification of the migrant workers. In the matrix of factor loading after the axis of ratation, the influencing factor loading of labor market segmentation reaches 0.865 and it becomes the most powerful factor in the first principal component factors. Moreover, it also proves the labor market segmentation has magnificent impact on the employment of migrant workers.
3. With the methods of linear scaling and dimensionless, it is necessary to turn the dummy variable of labor market segmentation degree into quantitative explanatory variable and to construct employment model to carry out an empirical study based on the effects of labor market segmentation on the migrant worker employment. In the course of empirical study, it is important to continuously optimize the employment model through a series of methods, like quantitative analytical method, OLS method, correlation coefficient method, auxiliary regression method and GLS method. On the other hand, it is also necessary to verify the validity of employment model via a succession of tests, like T test, F test, D-W test, runs test, ADF test, Johansen Cointegration test and Granger Causality test. The results show that:the employment figures of migrant workers is negatively correlated with the separation between town and country, the separation among industries and unit separation; the region separation, under the condition of negligent effects on the migrant workers employment, is advantageous to the optimization of migrant workers employment model and is not important on the employment any longer; the combination of the separation between town and country, separation among industries, unit separation and region separation has remarkable influence on the employment of migrant workers.
4. Take Changsha city for example, the field survey found the concrete formats of three functions, namely, utility function, supply function and demand function, which have good representativeness. The paper adopts some theories on modern labor economics and analyses in depth the influencing mechanism of each market separation on the employment of migrant workers. According to a survey of employment intention, under the assumption of no separation in the labor market, the supply curve of migrant workers shows a easier one than the demand curve and finally forms the divergent cobweb, which brings about the fluctuation and instability. In effect, labor market segmentation of China imposes certain restrictions on the employment of migrant workers, such as, the wage elasticity of supply is smaller than the wage elasticity of demand, the supply curve S is steeper than the demand curve D and finally forms the convergent cobweb. As the Chinese saying goes, one coin has two sides. Therefore, the effects of labor market segmentation on the employment are not all negative, and the government should keep the appropriate separation of labor market through right policy intervention. It is essential to pay attention to the positive effects on the market equilibrium of employment.
5. The government can foster market mechanism through rational market intervention to eliminate the adverse effects of the institutional market segmentation on the employment of migrant workers and progressively establish a competitive labor market. The policy measures on the management of labor market segmentation and job enlargement of migrant workers must center on the empirical model and mechanism study:government lead and effectively promote the land circulation, strip the welfare part of registered city residence, carry out the system of old-age retirement pension, turn the organic towns into small cities, strengthen infrastructure of power, transportation and communication, bridge the income gap of monopolized industry and competitive industry, readjust the industry structure and increase the employment proportion of tertiary industry, intensify the human capital investment of migrant workers, implement the all-member labor contract system in the government departments and enterprises and institutions with the status of independent legal entity, get rid of the discrimination of migrant workers and develop the informal employment of migrant workers.
From the view of paper's conclusion, the study of employment of migrant workers from the perspective of the labor market segmentation is rather unique and original. What is more, the achievements of paper provide the well-designed management policy to the government administrative departments. Though the supply exceeds the demand of migrant workers in China, the problem of employment can be fully resolved with appropriate policies.
引文
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