客船楼梯处人员疏散模型研究
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摘要
回顾海上运输安全的历史,每次海上运输安全政策的重大改变都是吸取海上事故的教训产生的。特别是客船,由于客船人员众多,疏散空间狭窄,事故发生地一般在海上等原因,客船的人员安全隐患更为明显,一旦发生事故将可能危及数百甚至上千人的生命。因此,研究客船人员安全疏散问题具有切实的意义。
在大部分的疏散场景中,楼梯都是决定疏散时间长短的主要因素。由于它的实际尺寸往往比建筑物的其他部分要小,再加上会显著降低步行速度的原因,楼梯通常被认为疏散过程中的瓶颈。然而,目前相当一部分有关疏散的研究都是基于整体来研究的,设定的场景往往是某个建筑物,船舶或者是地铁等自成系统的平面区域,对于起到连接多个平面区域的通道——楼梯这一重要而特殊的结构中的疏散问题则研究得很少,而有关客船楼梯疏散的研究就更少了。因此,对客船楼梯处人员疏散的研究具有重要的现实意义。
本论文以多格子模型为基础,结合概率论中有关区间估计的理论知识,建立了正浮状态下客船楼梯处人员疏散多格子模型。通过MATLAB对相关数据的处理,得到了通过特定楼梯时疏散时间与累积疏散人数的关系图,以及疏散时间和D值之间的关系图。通过得到的两个关系图来估计疏散人数和疏散时间的关系,以及D值对疏散时间的影响。
Reviewing the history of maritime transport safety, every significant change of the maritime transport security policy is based on the lesson of the accidents at sea, especially for the passenger ships. Owing to the characteristics of itself, such as there is limited evacuation space, many people are concerned, and the accident occurred at sea in general, the threaten of the safety for the personnel on the passenger ship is distinct. Once the accident happened, it would threaten hundreds or even thousands of lives. Therefore, the study for passenger evacuation has practical significance.
In most of the evacuation scenario, the stairs are the main factors that determine the evacuate time. Because its physical size is often smaller than the rest of the building, coupled with it will significantly reduce the walking speed, the staircase is usually considered the bottleneck in the evacuation process. However, a considerable part of the current research related to evacuation is based on the whole set of scenes, just like a building, subway or ship that form the region as a system, for the important and special staircase that connecting multiple plane regions, there is few research on the evacuation, Particularly with the research regard to passenger ships. Therefore, the evacuation study of stairs on passenger ships is very important.
This thesis is based on the multi-grid model, combined with probability theory in the theoretical knowledge of the relevant interval estimation, and establish a lattice model which is about the evacuation of stairs on passenger ships that on the state of floating.The relevant data is disposed through the MATLAB, then obtained the relation schema about the cumulative number of evacuee and the time it takes along the particular stair. The relation schema between the evacuation time and D values is also raised. According to the two relation schema, a further research about the number of evacuee and the time it takes is put forward, then analysis the influence of the value of D to the time.
在大部分的疏散场景中,楼梯都是决定疏散时间长短的主要因素。由于它的实际尺寸往往比建筑物的其他部分要小,再加上会显著降低步行速度的原因,楼梯通常被认为疏散过程中的瓶颈。然而,目前相当一部分有关疏散的研究都是基于整体来研究的,设定的场景往往是某个建筑物,船舶或者是地铁等自成系统的平面区域,对于起到连接多个平面区域的通道——楼梯这一重要而特殊的结构中的疏散问题则研究得很少,而有关客船楼梯疏散的研究就更少了。因此,对客船楼梯处人员疏散的研究具有重要的现实意义。
本论文以多格子模型为基础,结合概率论中有关区间估计的理论知识,建立了正浮状态下客船楼梯处人员疏散多格子模型。通过MATLAB对相关数据的处理,得到了通过特定楼梯时疏散时间与累积疏散人数的关系图,以及疏散时间和D值之间的关系图。通过得到的两个关系图来估计疏散人数和疏散时间的关系,以及D值对疏散时间的影响。
Reviewing the history of maritime transport safety, every significant change of the maritime transport security policy is based on the lesson of the accidents at sea, especially for the passenger ships. Owing to the characteristics of itself, such as there is limited evacuation space, many people are concerned, and the accident occurred at sea in general, the threaten of the safety for the personnel on the passenger ship is distinct. Once the accident happened, it would threaten hundreds or even thousands of lives. Therefore, the study for passenger evacuation has practical significance.
In most of the evacuation scenario, the stairs are the main factors that determine the evacuate time. Because its physical size is often smaller than the rest of the building, coupled with it will significantly reduce the walking speed, the staircase is usually considered the bottleneck in the evacuation process. However, a considerable part of the current research related to evacuation is based on the whole set of scenes, just like a building, subway or ship that form the region as a system, for the important and special staircase that connecting multiple plane regions, there is few research on the evacuation, Particularly with the research regard to passenger ships. Therefore, the evacuation study of stairs on passenger ships is very important.
This thesis is based on the multi-grid model, combined with probability theory in the theoretical knowledge of the relevant interval estimation, and establish a lattice model which is about the evacuation of stairs on passenger ships that on the state of floating.The relevant data is disposed through the MATLAB, then obtained the relation schema about the cumulative number of evacuee and the time it takes along the particular stair. The relation schema between the evacuation time and D values is also raised. According to the two relation schema, a further research about the number of evacuee and the time it takes is put forward, then analysis the influence of the value of D to the time.
引文
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[2]Hubert Klupfel. Ship Evacution-Guidelines, Simulatiion, Validation, and Acceptance Criteria Traff Go HT Gmbh, Bismarckstrabe. Duisburg,Germany.142,47-57
[3]郭铁男.我国火灾形势与消防科学技术的发展.消防科学与技术,2005：24(6).663-673.
[4]肖国清,廖光煊.建筑物火灾中人的疏散方式研究.中国安全科学学报,2006,16(2)：26-29.
[5]Federal Emergency Management Association(FEMA):Federal Insurance Federal Emergency Management Agency and Miltigation Asministration.World Trade Center building performance study:data collection,preliminary observations and recommendations. Number FEMA 403. Washington, D. c,2002.
[6]Dongkon lee, Hongtae Kim, Jim-Hyoung. Park The current status and future issues in human evacuation from ships. Safety Science,41(2003):861-876.
[7]马骏驰.火灾中人群疏散的仿真研究：(博士学位论文).上海：同济大学,2007,8.
[8]方正,卢兆明.建筑物避难疏散的网格模型.中国安全科学学报.2001,11(4)：10-13.
[9]李引擎,肖泽南,张向阳等.火灾中人员安全疏散的计算机模型.建筑科学,2006,22(1).
[10]刘真余,芮小平.地铁紧急疏散模型的研究.铁路计算机应,2009,18(1)
[11]王庆娇,方正,张铮.虚拟现实技术在火灾人员疏散行为调查中的应用.测绘信息与工程,2003,28(4)：45-47.
[12]韩东,张蕊,行人微观仿真中的运动模型与行为模型——STEPS与NOMAD模型对比.城市交通,2008.11(6).
[13]杨立中,李健等.基于个体行为的人员疏散微观离散模型.中国科学.E辑,工程科学,材料科学,2004,34(11).
[14]郭谨一,刘爽,陈绍宽等.行人运动仿真研究综述.系统仿真学报,2008,20(9)
[15]张培红,陈宝智.火灾时人员疏散行为规律.东北大学学报(自然科学版),2001,22(1)：(54-56).
[16]张培红,陈宝智,刘丽珍.虚拟现实技术与火灾时人员应急疏散行为研究.中国安全科学学报,2002,12(Ⅰ)：46-50.
[17]阎卫东,陈宝智,钟茂华.火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应影响的研究.中国安全生产科学技术,2005,1(4)：32-37.
[18]林亮,沈裴敏.群集理论在酒店应急疏散中的应用.中国安全生产科学技术,2006,2(5).
[19]Katuhara, M., et al.,1997. Simulation of human escape on board—Ⅰ. Journal of Japan Institute of Navigation 96,283-293(in Japanese).Katuhara, M., et. al.,1998.Simulation of human escape on board—Ⅱ. Journal of Japan Institute ofNavigation 98,141-150(inJapanese).
[20]Murayama, M., Itagaki, T., Yoshida, K.,2000. Study on evaluation of escape route by evacuation simulation. (Japanese). Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Japan,188 441-448.
[21]Koss, L. L., Moore, A., Porteous, B.,1997. Human mobility data for movement on ships. In:Proceedingsof International Conference on Fire at Sea, pp.1-11.
[22]Brumley, A. T., Koss, L. L.,2000. The influence of human factors on the motor ability of passengers during the evacuation of ferries and ship. In:Proceedings of Conference on Human Factors in Ship Design and Operations, pp.
[23]Bles, W.,Nooy, S., Boer, L. C.,2001. Influence of ship listing and ship motion on walking speed. Proceedings of Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics,pp.437-452.
[24]Helbing, D., Farkas, I., Vicsek, T.,2000. Simulating dynamical features of escape panic Nature 407,487-490.
[25]黄恒栋.高层建筑火灾安全疏散中的人流集结、出口流出时间特性曲线.重庆建筑大学学报,1997,19(1)：26-37.
[26]Ando, K., et al.,1988. Forecasting the flow of people. Railway Research Review 45(8),8-14 in Japanese.
[27]Sime, J. D.,1995. Crowd psychology and engineering. Safety Science 21,1-14.
[28Nelson, H. E., Maclennan, H. A.,1996. Emergency movement.In:Dilenno, P. J.et al(Eds.), The SFPE.
[29]Koss, L. L., Moore, A., Porteous,B.,1997. Human mobility data for movement on ships. In:Proceedings of InternationalConference on Fire at Sea, pp.1-11.
[30]Murayama, M., Itagaki, T., Yoshida, K.,2000. Study on evaluation of escape route by evacuation simulation. (Japanese). Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Japan,188 441-448.
[31]IMO,2007. Guidelines for evacuation analysis for new and existing passenger ships.
[32]崔喜红,李强,陈晋,陈春晓.大型公共场所人员疏散模型研究—考虑个体特性和从众行为.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6)：133-140.
[33]Katuhara, M., et al.,1999. Simulation of human escape on board—Ⅲ. Journal of Japan Institute of Navigation 100,199-207(in Japanese.
[34]Fukuchi, N., Koyama, K., Shinoda, T.,1999. Analysis of evacuation behaviour by using the working model with psychological intelligence process in an emergency. Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Japan 186,545-558 (in Japanese.
[35]周金旺,陈秀丽等．一种改进的多速双向行人流元胞自动机模型.物理学报,2009,58(4).
[36]陈涛,应振根等.相对速度影响下社会力模型的疏散模拟与分析.自然科学进展,2006,16(12).
[37]廖艳芬,马晓茜.基于元胞自动机的地铁火灾疏散动态分析.系统仿真学报,2008,20(24).
[38]章志钢,李青.基于元胞自动机的人员疏散过程研究.计算机工程与设计,2009,30(8).
[39]M. Muramatsu, T. Irie, T. Nagatani, Jamming trasition in pedestrian counter flow, Physica A 267(1999)487-498.
[40]Y. Tajima, K. Takimoto, T. Nagatani, Scaling of pedestrian channel flow with a bottleneck, Physica A 294(2001)257-268.
[41]Y. Tajima, T. Nagatani, Scaling behavior of crowd flow outside a hall, Physica A 292(2001)545-554.
[42]C. Burstedde, K. Klauck, A. Schadschneider, J. Zitartz, Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensional cellular automaton, Physica A 295 (2001) 507-525 A. Kirchner, A. Schadschneider, Simulation of evacuation processes using a bionics-inspired cellular automaton model for pedestrian dynamics, Physica A 3 (2002) 260-276.
[43]陈涛,应振根,中世飞等.相对速度影响下社会力模型的疏散模拟与分析.自然科学进展,2006，16(12)
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