我国信托公司财务风险评价的研究
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摘要
财务风险管理是企业管理中的重要课题。近年来,我国资本市场迅速发展,信托行业作为一个高风险行业,经过多次清理整顿,公司面临的投融资理财环境更加复杂,财务风险的预防与控制成为我国信托业管理的重要内容,因此,进行信托业财务风险评价研究,无论对管理者还是投资人均具有重大的理论与现实意义。
本文全篇分为六部分。首先,本文借助于层次分析法的数学模型,联系我国信托业发展现状,概括的介绍了论文研究的背景与选题意义；其次,对国内外财务风险评价进行了文献综述；第三,在前人财务风险评价理论研究的基础上,分析了我国信托业财务风险的现况,总结了信托业财务风险的成因与识别方法；第四,综合信托业风险、财务风险特征与成因等多种因素构建了信托业财务风险评价指标体系。第五,运用层次分析法的判断矩阵计算各影响因素的权重,得出信托业综合评价值,并通过层次分析法分析我国信托业财务风险的影响因素。最后得出结论：影响财务风险的因素依次是：盈利能力指标、偿债能力指标、营运能力指标、成长能力指标。该结论不仅有利于管理者进行对比分析并且快速发现影响企业财务风险的主要因素,以便于追根溯源的研究形成财务风险的原因。而且为我国信托业投资者提供了风险投资决策的依据。
Financial risk management is an important topic of enterprise management. Currently, how to evaluate the enterprise financial risk reasonably and accurately has become a focus of research content. In recent years, with the development of China's capital market, prevention and control of financial risk has become a major issue faced by enterprises. Trust, as a high risk industry, is facing a more complex financial environment of investment and financing after several times revamping. And now prevention and controlling of financial risks has become an important part of the trust industry. So it is significant for managers and investors both in theoretical and practical fields to assess the financial risk of trust industry.
This thesis is composed of 6 parts. Firstly, with AHP and based on the current development status of the trust industry in our country, it briefly introduces the background and significance of the study on the thesis. Secondly, it makes an overall reference comments on the domestic financial risks evaluation. Thirdly, based on the study on the theory of the financial risks evaluation from other scholars, it analyses the current status of the financial risks in the domestic trust industry and summarizes the causes and identification methods of the risks. Fourthly, combined with the risks, their features and their causes, it establishes the index system in the risk evaluation system. Fifthly, by means of AHP's comparison matrix, it calculates the weight to get the overall evaluation ratings and analyses the factors of the financial risks. Last but not the least, it concludes that the factors are capacity of profitability index, debt-paying ability or liquidity index, operating capacity index, growing capability index. Not only the conclusion helps the management make the comparative analysis and quickly identify the major factors that influence the financial risks of the enterprise, but also studies the root causes of the risks. Besides, it provides the investors in the trust industry in our country with the guideline to risk investment decisions.
本文全篇分为六部分。首先,本文借助于层次分析法的数学模型,联系我国信托业发展现状,概括的介绍了论文研究的背景与选题意义；其次,对国内外财务风险评价进行了文献综述；第三,在前人财务风险评价理论研究的基础上,分析了我国信托业财务风险的现况,总结了信托业财务风险的成因与识别方法；第四,综合信托业风险、财务风险特征与成因等多种因素构建了信托业财务风险评价指标体系。第五,运用层次分析法的判断矩阵计算各影响因素的权重,得出信托业综合评价值,并通过层次分析法分析我国信托业财务风险的影响因素。最后得出结论：影响财务风险的因素依次是：盈利能力指标、偿债能力指标、营运能力指标、成长能力指标。该结论不仅有利于管理者进行对比分析并且快速发现影响企业财务风险的主要因素,以便于追根溯源的研究形成财务风险的原因。而且为我国信托业投资者提供了风险投资决策的依据。
Financial risk management is an important topic of enterprise management. Currently, how to evaluate the enterprise financial risk reasonably and accurately has become a focus of research content. In recent years, with the development of China's capital market, prevention and control of financial risk has become a major issue faced by enterprises. Trust, as a high risk industry, is facing a more complex financial environment of investment and financing after several times revamping. And now prevention and controlling of financial risks has become an important part of the trust industry. So it is significant for managers and investors both in theoretical and practical fields to assess the financial risk of trust industry.
This thesis is composed of 6 parts. Firstly, with AHP and based on the current development status of the trust industry in our country, it briefly introduces the background and significance of the study on the thesis. Secondly, it makes an overall reference comments on the domestic financial risks evaluation. Thirdly, based on the study on the theory of the financial risks evaluation from other scholars, it analyses the current status of the financial risks in the domestic trust industry and summarizes the causes and identification methods of the risks. Fourthly, combined with the risks, their features and their causes, it establishes the index system in the risk evaluation system. Fifthly, by means of AHP's comparison matrix, it calculates the weight to get the overall evaluation ratings and analyses the factors of the financial risks. Last but not the least, it concludes that the factors are capacity of profitability index, debt-paying ability or liquidity index, operating capacity index, growing capability index. Not only the conclusion helps the management make the comparative analysis and quickly identify the major factors that influence the financial risks of the enterprise, but also studies the root causes of the risks. Besides, it provides the investors in the trust industry in our country with the guideline to risk investment decisions.
引文
[1]付高善.现代企业财务风险管理研究[D].南京财经大学,2008
[2]Miller. M. H The cost of capital corporation finance and the theory of investment[J].The American Economic Review June.1958.
[3]E.T.Altman, Financial Rations, Disciminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Failure[J], Journal of Finance (September,1968).
[4]迟翔华.企业财务风险及其防范研究[D].山东大学,2008
[5]郭敏.我国企业财务风险与防范研究[D].四川大学,2002
[6]叶华.中小企业财务风险评价与控制研究[D].华中农业大学,2005
[7]杨林枫,张学银等.信托产品概述[M].中国财经出版社,2008
[8]Stephen J Gauthier, From Internal Control to Enterprise Risk Management[J], Government Finance Review, Apr 2005(Vol.21, Iss.2):56.
[9]John Farrell, Internal Controls and Managing Enterprise-Wide Risks[J], The CPA Journal, Aug 2004(Vol.74,Iss.8):11.
[10]杨军芳.商业银行绩效评价及指标体系研究[D].西北农林科技大学,2006
[11]李勇.企业财务风险控制研究[D].长春理工大学,2006
[12]姚世民,陈丽钦.当今信托机构风险的成因与对策[J].业太经济,2000(06)
[13]庄俊鸿等.信托与租赁[M].华南理工大学出版社,1995(02)
[14]吴丽君.我国信托投资公司风险管理体系研究[D].天津大学,2005
[15]Bany. Oliver. Financial risk management[D], annual PHD forum 1999 report,1999.
[16]Robert Bruce. Redressing the Risk Balance:Enterprise Governance[J], Financial Times, Sep 8,2003:2.
[17]倪馨.我国信托业的发展研究[D].东北农业大学,2001
[18]王皓白.信托投资公司风险预警及风险管理研究[D].浙江工业大学,2001
[19]党夏宁.风险投资业财务风险控制研究[D].西北农林科技大学,2004
[20]中华人民共和国信托法[S].法律出版社,2001
[21]道格拉斯.R.爱默瑞,约翰.D.芬尼特,《公司财务管理》,中国人民大学出版社,1999(11)
[22]Beaver W. Market price, Financial Ratios, and the Prediction of Failure[J], Journal of Accounting Research,1968(9)179-192.
[23]Rechard Morris. "How Useful are Failure Prediction Models?"[J], Management Accounting, May 1998.
[24]朱德胜.高级财务管理[M].经济科学出版社.2009
[25]曾忠生.中国信托机构风险管理研究[D].暨南大学,2005
[26]陈赤.中国信托创新研究——基于信托功能视角的分析[D].西南财经大学,2008
[27]曹敏.房地产投资信托基金的风险管理研究[D].中南大学,2008年
[28]樊凌飞.信托投资公司风险管理的若干思考与建议[D].复旦大学,2006年
[29]谢嘉.我国房地产信托风险管理研究[D].首都经济贸易大学,2007年
[30]赵力.现阶段我国信托公司发展研究[D].复旦大学,2006年
[31]李哲.我国信托业的现状及其发展研究[D].西北工业大学,2004年
[32]乔云飞.我国信托业发展问题研究[D].华东师范大学,2004年
[33]王丽.海南信托业兴衰的启示——从海南信托业的破产谈信托的风险管理[D].首都 经济贸易大学,2007年
[34]韩莉.重庆信托公司风险研究[D].重庆大学,2006年
[35]Anthony Saunders, Credit Risk Measurement[J], John Wiley & Sons, New York,1999.
[36]Richard Impefiale. Real Estate Investment Trusts[J]. New Strategies for Portfolio Management New York.2002
[37]Richard Edwards, Nigel Stockwell. Trusts and Equity[J],5th ed. [M].北京：法律出版社,2003
[38]王淑敏,陆世敏.金融信托与租赁[M].中国金触出版社,2002(01)
[39]A. Sinan Cebenoyan, Philip E. Strahan, Risk Management, Capital Structure and Lending at Banks[J], October 2001
[40]丁建臣.信托公司、财务公司经营管理[M].中国人民大学出版社,2000(12)
[41]余涛.AHP法在财务分析与投资决策中应用[J].中国市场,2005-32
[42]李云松.改进的层次分析法在财务分析中的应用[J].市场周刊,2007-03
[43]Saaty T. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. McGraw-Hill Inc, New York,1980.
[44]石香焕,唐文彬.基于层次分析法的财务风险综合评估[J].财会月刊,2007-02
[45]施玉洁.层次分析法在企业财务分析中的运用[J].财会通讯(理财版),2008,(05)
[46]陈中华.层次分析法在中小企业信用评价中的应用研究[D].苏州大学,2006
[47]Salo A. On fuzzy ratio comparisons in hierarchical decision models[J]. Fuzzy Sets and systems,1996,84(1):21-32.
[48]张文英.企业财务分析的AHP应用探讨[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2001-02
[49]Lipovetsky S, Tishler A. Interval estimation of priorities in the AHP[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1999,114(1):153-164.
[50]Bryson N, Joseph A. Generating consensus priority interval vectors for group decision making in the AHP [J]. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis,2000,9(4): 127-137.
[51]Bask I. Probabilistic judgments specified partially in the AHP[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1999,114(1):153-164.
[52]Byeong S. The analytic hierarchy process in an uncertain environment:A simulation approach by Hauser and Tadikamalla(1996)[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2000,124(1):217-218.
[53]Haines L. A statistical approach to the analytic hierarchy process with interval judgments (Ⅰ) distributions on feasible regions[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1998,110(1):112-125.
[54]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用[J].西安建筑科技大学学报,2005-01
[55]王蕾,层次分析法在企业财务综合评价中的应用[J].工业技术经济,PKU,2004(02)
[56]石振武,赵敏.运用层次分析法确定指标的权值[J].科技和产业,2008-02
[57]李跃贞,朱启莲.改进层次分析法在企业财务综合分析中的应用[N].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(02)
[58]蒋麟凤,王红英,黄小梅.层次分析法在财务分析中的应用[N].江西农业大学学报(社会科学版),2007(01)
[59]李仲仕.我国信托业风险缓冲机制研究[D].苏州大学,2007年
[60]张星文,顾全根.基于AHP的财务预警指标权重设计[J].财会通讯,2007-10
[61]Wang M, Yang J.A Multi-criterion Experimental Comparison of Three Multi-attribute Weight Measurement Methods [J]. Journal of multi-criteria decision analysis,1998, 7:340-350.
[62]Hwang C, Yoon K. Multiple attribute decision making methods and applications:A state-of-the-art survey [J]. New York:springer,1981.
[63]Leung L, Cao D. On consistency and ranking of alternatives in fuzzy AHP [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2000,124(1):102-113.
[64]Xu Z, Wei C. A consistency improving method in the analytic hierarchy process [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,116(2):443-449.
[65]张静琦.金融信托学[M].西南财大出版社,1998
[66]剩侯等.商业银行租赁与信托[M],上海财经大学出版社,1996(11)
[67]刘玉雪,王章虎.层次分析法(AHP)在风险分析与评价中的应用[J].工程与建设,2008-01
[68]Steven Lschwarcz. Commercial Trust As Business Organization:Unreveling the Mystery. Vol.58 February 2003
[2]Miller. M. H The cost of capital corporation finance and the theory of investment[J].The American Economic Review June.1958.
[3]E.T.Altman, Financial Rations, Disciminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Failure[J], Journal of Finance (September,1968).
[4]迟翔华.企业财务风险及其防范研究[D].山东大学,2008
[5]郭敏.我国企业财务风险与防范研究[D].四川大学,2002
[6]叶华.中小企业财务风险评价与控制研究[D].华中农业大学,2005
[7]杨林枫,张学银等.信托产品概述[M].中国财经出版社,2008
[8]Stephen J Gauthier, From Internal Control to Enterprise Risk Management[J], Government Finance Review, Apr 2005(Vol.21, Iss.2):56.
[9]John Farrell, Internal Controls and Managing Enterprise-Wide Risks[J], The CPA Journal, Aug 2004(Vol.74,Iss.8):11.
[10]杨军芳.商业银行绩效评价及指标体系研究[D].西北农林科技大学,2006
[11]李勇.企业财务风险控制研究[D].长春理工大学,2006
[12]姚世民,陈丽钦.当今信托机构风险的成因与对策[J].业太经济,2000(06)
[13]庄俊鸿等.信托与租赁[M].华南理工大学出版社,1995(02)
[14]吴丽君.我国信托投资公司风险管理体系研究[D].天津大学,2005
[15]Bany. Oliver. Financial risk management[D], annual PHD forum 1999 report,1999.
[16]Robert Bruce. Redressing the Risk Balance:Enterprise Governance[J], Financial Times, Sep 8,2003:2.
[17]倪馨.我国信托业的发展研究[D].东北农业大学,2001
[18]王皓白.信托投资公司风险预警及风险管理研究[D].浙江工业大学,2001
[19]党夏宁.风险投资业财务风险控制研究[D].西北农林科技大学,2004
[20]中华人民共和国信托法[S].法律出版社,2001
[21]道格拉斯.R.爱默瑞,约翰.D.芬尼特,《公司财务管理》,中国人民大学出版社,1999(11)
[22]Beaver W. Market price, Financial Ratios, and the Prediction of Failure[J], Journal of Accounting Research,1968(9)179-192.
[23]Rechard Morris. "How Useful are Failure Prediction Models?"[J], Management Accounting, May 1998.
[24]朱德胜.高级财务管理[M].经济科学出版社.2009
[25]曾忠生.中国信托机构风险管理研究[D].暨南大学,2005
[26]陈赤.中国信托创新研究——基于信托功能视角的分析[D].西南财经大学,2008
[27]曹敏.房地产投资信托基金的风险管理研究[D].中南大学,2008年
[28]樊凌飞.信托投资公司风险管理的若干思考与建议[D].复旦大学,2006年
[29]谢嘉.我国房地产信托风险管理研究[D].首都经济贸易大学,2007年
[30]赵力.现阶段我国信托公司发展研究[D].复旦大学,2006年
[31]李哲.我国信托业的现状及其发展研究[D].西北工业大学,2004年
[32]乔云飞.我国信托业发展问题研究[D].华东师范大学,2004年
[33]王丽.海南信托业兴衰的启示——从海南信托业的破产谈信托的风险管理[D].首都 经济贸易大学,2007年
[34]韩莉.重庆信托公司风险研究[D].重庆大学,2006年
[35]Anthony Saunders, Credit Risk Measurement[J], John Wiley & Sons, New York,1999.
[36]Richard Impefiale. Real Estate Investment Trusts[J]. New Strategies for Portfolio Management New York.2002
[37]Richard Edwards, Nigel Stockwell. Trusts and Equity[J],5th ed. [M].北京：法律出版社,2003
[38]王淑敏,陆世敏.金融信托与租赁[M].中国金触出版社,2002(01)
[39]A. Sinan Cebenoyan, Philip E. Strahan, Risk Management, Capital Structure and Lending at Banks[J], October 2001
[40]丁建臣.信托公司、财务公司经营管理[M].中国人民大学出版社,2000(12)
[41]余涛.AHP法在财务分析与投资决策中应用[J].中国市场,2005-32
[42]李云松.改进的层次分析法在财务分析中的应用[J].市场周刊,2007-03
[43]Saaty T. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. McGraw-Hill Inc, New York,1980.
[44]石香焕,唐文彬.基于层次分析法的财务风险综合评估[J].财会月刊,2007-02
[45]施玉洁.层次分析法在企业财务分析中的运用[J].财会通讯(理财版),2008,(05)
[46]陈中华.层次分析法在中小企业信用评价中的应用研究[D].苏州大学,2006
[47]Salo A. On fuzzy ratio comparisons in hierarchical decision models[J]. Fuzzy Sets and systems,1996,84(1):21-32.
[48]张文英.企业财务分析的AHP应用探讨[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2001-02
[49]Lipovetsky S, Tishler A. Interval estimation of priorities in the AHP[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1999,114(1):153-164.
[50]Bryson N, Joseph A. Generating consensus priority interval vectors for group decision making in the AHP [J]. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis,2000,9(4): 127-137.
[51]Bask I. Probabilistic judgments specified partially in the AHP[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1999,114(1):153-164.
[52]Byeong S. The analytic hierarchy process in an uncertain environment:A simulation approach by Hauser and Tadikamalla(1996)[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2000,124(1):217-218.
[53]Haines L. A statistical approach to the analytic hierarchy process with interval judgments (Ⅰ) distributions on feasible regions[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1998,110(1):112-125.
[54]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用[J].西安建筑科技大学学报,2005-01
[55]王蕾,层次分析法在企业财务综合评价中的应用[J].工业技术经济,PKU,2004(02)
[56]石振武,赵敏.运用层次分析法确定指标的权值[J].科技和产业,2008-02
[57]李跃贞,朱启莲.改进层次分析法在企业财务综合分析中的应用[N].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2004(02)
[58]蒋麟凤,王红英,黄小梅.层次分析法在财务分析中的应用[N].江西农业大学学报(社会科学版),2007(01)
[59]李仲仕.我国信托业风险缓冲机制研究[D].苏州大学,2007年
[60]张星文,顾全根.基于AHP的财务预警指标权重设计[J].财会通讯,2007-10
[61]Wang M, Yang J.A Multi-criterion Experimental Comparison of Three Multi-attribute Weight Measurement Methods [J]. Journal of multi-criteria decision analysis,1998, 7:340-350.
[62]Hwang C, Yoon K. Multiple attribute decision making methods and applications:A state-of-the-art survey [J]. New York:springer,1981.
[63]Leung L, Cao D. On consistency and ranking of alternatives in fuzzy AHP [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2000,124(1):102-113.
[64]Xu Z, Wei C. A consistency improving method in the analytic hierarchy process [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,116(2):443-449.
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