中国电力市场绩效评价指标体系及评价模型研究
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摘要
电力市场绩效评价的理论研究意义在于通过对电力市场的绩效进行经济性评价研究,为市场成员的行为选择和监管机构的监管方案设计提供决策参考,从而进一步完善电力市场设计,以实现优化电力资源配置、提高电力市场效率的电力工业市场化改革的总体目标。
对电力市场绩效评价研究的难点在于难以量化分析,并且各个区域电力市场的情况都各不相同,很难找到一个衡量电力市场绩效优良的统一标准,自然也就很难判断电力市场绩效的好坏。
针对这些问题和难点,论文选择从不同的角度对电力市场绩效评价问题进行研究。包括建立评价指标体系,从整体角度研究市场绩效,对于难以量化和无标准可依的问题,则采用专家问卷调查的形式,对其进行量化处理;另外论文还从要素分析的角度、从结构分析的角度、从电价分析的角度,分别采用系统分析理论、产业经济学和计量经济学方法对市场绩效评价问题进行深入研究。
论文的主要创新点包括:构建了我国电力市场绩效评价指标体系;建立了基于要素分析的电力市场绩效评价模型;建立了基于电价分析的电力市场运行效率评价模型。论文主要由5部分构成:
一、以几个典型的电力市场为例,研究其市场化改革和电力市场绩效评价的方法和指标,为我国的电力市场改革及市场绩效评价提供借鉴;
二、基于对电力市场特性的分析,建立电力市场绩效评价的指标体系。体系从五个方面对电力市场绩效展开评价,分别为发电侧、供电侧、用户侧、市场交易类指标以及发展协调性指标。
三、从要素分析的角度,对电力市场绩效进行研究。基于系统分析理论,对影响电力市场绩效的主要要素进行分析,运用ISM理论,建立电力市场绩效评价要素的解释结构模型。
四、从产业经济学的角度,对电力市场绩效进行研究。基于产业经济学中的SCP(结构-行为-绩效)分析范式,对我国目前电力市场中的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效进行分析。
五、从计量经济学的角度,对电力市场绩效进行研究。运用计量经济学中的时间序列分析方法,对电价的平稳性和协整性进行分析研究,从而建立基于电价的电力市场绩效评价模型。
The significance of the research on performance evaluation of power market lies in providing economic assessment for market operation, providing reference for the market regulation system, thus further improving power market design, achieving the goal of market-oriented reform.
The difficult of the power market Performance evaluation research is to quantify, and the situation of the regional power market is different, so it’s hard to find a unite standard to measure the market’s performance, then it’s hard to determine whether the market’s performance is good or not.
In view of these problems and difficulties, the paper choose from different angles to study the electricity market performance evaluation. Including the establishment of evaluation index system, from the overall perspective on market performance, it is difficult to quantify and non-standards-based problem, the use of experts in the form of a questionnaire survey of its quantification. The paper also from the perspective of the analysis of the elements, from the perspective of structural analysis, pricing analysis from the perspective of theoretical analysis were used, industry economics and econometric methods on the market performance evaluation conducted in-depth research.
The main innovations include: Construction of the electric power market Performance Evaluation System in China firstly; established the electricity market Performance Evaluation Model based on the elements analysis; established the electricity market Performance Evaluation Model based on price analysis. Papers from five major components:
First, the paper takes some typical power system as example, studies their market’s reform and the market performance evaluation methods and index, to provide reference to china’s electricity market reform and the market performance evaluation research. Second, based on the analysis of the characteristic of power system, established electric power market performance evaluation index system. The system include 5 evaluation aspects: generation side, power supply side, consumer side, market trading and the correspond of developmental index.
Third, based on the factors analysis, study the power market performance evaluation. Based on system analysis theory, study the major factors that’s influence the market performance, and establish the ISM model to research the relationship of the factors.
Based on industry economics, study the power market performance evaluation. Based on the SCP pattern (structure-conduct-performance), study the power market’s market structure, market conduct and market performance of China.
Finally, based on the computation economics, study the power market performance evaluation. Through the time serial analysis, study the price’s stability and correspondence, and established the evaluation model based on price analysis.
对电力市场绩效评价研究的难点在于难以量化分析,并且各个区域电力市场的情况都各不相同,很难找到一个衡量电力市场绩效优良的统一标准,自然也就很难判断电力市场绩效的好坏。
针对这些问题和难点,论文选择从不同的角度对电力市场绩效评价问题进行研究。包括建立评价指标体系,从整体角度研究市场绩效,对于难以量化和无标准可依的问题,则采用专家问卷调查的形式,对其进行量化处理;另外论文还从要素分析的角度、从结构分析的角度、从电价分析的角度,分别采用系统分析理论、产业经济学和计量经济学方法对市场绩效评价问题进行深入研究。
论文的主要创新点包括:构建了我国电力市场绩效评价指标体系;建立了基于要素分析的电力市场绩效评价模型;建立了基于电价分析的电力市场运行效率评价模型。论文主要由5部分构成:
一、以几个典型的电力市场为例,研究其市场化改革和电力市场绩效评价的方法和指标,为我国的电力市场改革及市场绩效评价提供借鉴;
二、基于对电力市场特性的分析,建立电力市场绩效评价的指标体系。体系从五个方面对电力市场绩效展开评价,分别为发电侧、供电侧、用户侧、市场交易类指标以及发展协调性指标。
三、从要素分析的角度,对电力市场绩效进行研究。基于系统分析理论,对影响电力市场绩效的主要要素进行分析,运用ISM理论,建立电力市场绩效评价要素的解释结构模型。
四、从产业经济学的角度,对电力市场绩效进行研究。基于产业经济学中的SCP(结构-行为-绩效)分析范式,对我国目前电力市场中的市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效进行分析。
五、从计量经济学的角度,对电力市场绩效进行研究。运用计量经济学中的时间序列分析方法,对电价的平稳性和协整性进行分析研究,从而建立基于电价的电力市场绩效评价模型。
The significance of the research on performance evaluation of power market lies in providing economic assessment for market operation, providing reference for the market regulation system, thus further improving power market design, achieving the goal of market-oriented reform.
The difficult of the power market Performance evaluation research is to quantify, and the situation of the regional power market is different, so it’s hard to find a unite standard to measure the market’s performance, then it’s hard to determine whether the market’s performance is good or not.
In view of these problems and difficulties, the paper choose from different angles to study the electricity market performance evaluation. Including the establishment of evaluation index system, from the overall perspective on market performance, it is difficult to quantify and non-standards-based problem, the use of experts in the form of a questionnaire survey of its quantification. The paper also from the perspective of the analysis of the elements, from the perspective of structural analysis, pricing analysis from the perspective of theoretical analysis were used, industry economics and econometric methods on the market performance evaluation conducted in-depth research.
The main innovations include: Construction of the electric power market Performance Evaluation System in China firstly; established the electricity market Performance Evaluation Model based on the elements analysis; established the electricity market Performance Evaluation Model based on price analysis. Papers from five major components:
First, the paper takes some typical power system as example, studies their market’s reform and the market performance evaluation methods and index, to provide reference to china’s electricity market reform and the market performance evaluation research. Second, based on the analysis of the characteristic of power system, established electric power market performance evaluation index system. The system include 5 evaluation aspects: generation side, power supply side, consumer side, market trading and the correspond of developmental index.
Third, based on the factors analysis, study the power market performance evaluation. Based on system analysis theory, study the major factors that’s influence the market performance, and establish the ISM model to research the relationship of the factors.
Based on industry economics, study the power market performance evaluation. Based on the SCP pattern (structure-conduct-performance), study the power market’s market structure, market conduct and market performance of China.
Finally, based on the computation economics, study the power market performance evaluation. Through the time serial analysis, study the price’s stability and correspondence, and established the evaluation model based on price analysis.
引文
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