鲜活农产品拍卖价格的影响因素研究
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摘要
随着市场经济改革的不断深化,农产品拍卖已经成为我国拍卖理论与应用研究最广泛的领域之一。虽然这一国际流行的交易方式在我国目前的产业体系下尚未普及,但我们仍然有必要继续探索它“价格形成中心、物流集散中心和信息交流中心”的市场公共平台作用。蔬菜、水果、花卉等鲜活农产品易腐易烂不易久存,在大规模交易时尤其适合于拍卖方式。昆明国际花卉拍卖交易中心KIFA是目前我国运作良好的鲜活农产品拍卖市场的代表,故本文拟以KIFA为例来寻找在传统市场、拍卖市场这两种市场体系并存的情形下我国鲜活农产品拍卖价格的影响因素,以求稳定农产品拍市价格从而吸引更多的生产者和购买商参与进来的对策与方法。
本文先通过文献研究法找出鲜活农产品拍卖价格的可能的影响因素,然后据此设计出花卉拍卖价格影响因素调查问卷,发放回收后用层次分析法AHP得出各影响因素的权重,用外部因素评价矩阵EFE和内部因素评价矩阵IFE找出最重要的影响因素；再用Excel来统计分析KIFA2008年玫瑰拍卖交易量及价格波动情况,用经济学中的蛛网模型对供应与价格进行均衡分析。最后对我国的鲜活农产品拍卖提出了几点建议。
鲜活农产品拍卖价格受多因素的影响,其中既有供求因素也有成本、拍卖因素等。经过本文的研究得出：供给方面的待售农产品数量、自然灾害、节假日,需求方面的拟销售区域的经济发展状况、消费者收入水平、消费观念及喜好,成本方面的生产成本、农产品的质量等级、供货商和批发商计划获利的多少,拍卖方面的现场购买商人数、现场购买者参与拍卖的策略等因素是影响鲜活农产品拍卖价格的最重要的因素。要稳定拍市价格,至少应该从稳定供求、降低成本、改进拍卖的效率三个方面入手。
对于稳定拍卖价格和有效推行鲜活农产品拍卖交易方式,文章最后提出了几点建议：1,建立拍卖市场前进行充分的可行性分析。2,大力发展行业协会,完善农产品拍卖规定。3,尽量丰富拍卖市场中农产品的品种,保证稳定的供货量。4,推广高科技,努力降低农产品成本。5,提高农产品的质量,执行严格的标准化体系。6,创造农产品生产的特色种类及品牌,努力研发具有自主知识产权的新品种。7,加快基础设施和服务体系建设。8,设计高效的拍卖机制,持续地改进拍卖流程运营绩效。9,建设电子商务,发展网上拍卖。
Along with continuous deepening of market economic reform, agricultural products auction has become one of the most extensive areas of auction theory and applied research in our country. Although this international mode is yet not popular in China under present industry system, we still had the necessity to continue exploring its public platform function for market as "pricing form center, logistics distribution center and information exchange center". Agricultural products such as Vegetables, fruit, flowers and plants are easily rotten, especially suit for the auction way when large-scale transactions. Kunming International Flower Auction Trading Center KIFA works quite well. It is a typical case of China's fresh agricultural products auction markets. So this paper taking KIFA as an example plans to find out the influence factors of fresh agricultural products auction price in the situation that traditional market and auction market are coexisting, and explore the ways to stabilize auction price and attract more participators.
This paper first find out the possible influence factors through literature study and designed an questionnaire on it, obtained the weight of each factor through analytic hierarchy process AHP after giving out the questionnaires and getting them back, then get the most important influence factors on external factor evaluation matrix EFE and internal factor appraisal matrix IFE; it also do statistical analysis of KIFA 2008 rose transaction volume and auction price fluctuation with EXCEL, and do Equilibrium Analysis of supply-price with the cobweb model. At the end of this paper put forward some proposals to fresh agricultural products auction.
Auction prices of Fresh agricultural products are affected by many factors, not only including supply and demand factors, but also cost and auction factors. After the study of this paper we got this conclusion:the number of agricultural products for sale, natural disasters, holiday turn from the supply side; the economic development of proposed sale regional, consumer income, consumer attitudes and preferences from the demand side; production costs, quality and grade of agricultural products and planned profit of suppliers and wholesalers from the cost side; the number and strategy of buyers from the action side are the most important factors. If we want to make the action price stable, we should start with stabilize supply-demand, reduce costs and improve auction efficiency.
In order to carry out fresh agricultural products auction effectively, this paper make these suggestions:1, do a fully feasibility analysis before establish auction market.2, strive to develop trade associations and perfect agricultural products auction rules.3, enrich the variety and number of agriculture products and ensure stable supply capacity.4, Spread high technology and struggle to lower cost.5, improve the quality of agriculture products, carry out a strict standardization system.6, create features and brand of agriculture products, try to develop new varieties with independent intellectual property rights.7, speed up infrastructure and supporting services system construction.8, design efficient auction mechanism, continuously improve operational performance auction process.9, building e-commerce, develop the online auctions.
本文先通过文献研究法找出鲜活农产品拍卖价格的可能的影响因素,然后据此设计出花卉拍卖价格影响因素调查问卷,发放回收后用层次分析法AHP得出各影响因素的权重,用外部因素评价矩阵EFE和内部因素评价矩阵IFE找出最重要的影响因素；再用Excel来统计分析KIFA2008年玫瑰拍卖交易量及价格波动情况,用经济学中的蛛网模型对供应与价格进行均衡分析。最后对我国的鲜活农产品拍卖提出了几点建议。
鲜活农产品拍卖价格受多因素的影响,其中既有供求因素也有成本、拍卖因素等。经过本文的研究得出：供给方面的待售农产品数量、自然灾害、节假日,需求方面的拟销售区域的经济发展状况、消费者收入水平、消费观念及喜好,成本方面的生产成本、农产品的质量等级、供货商和批发商计划获利的多少,拍卖方面的现场购买商人数、现场购买者参与拍卖的策略等因素是影响鲜活农产品拍卖价格的最重要的因素。要稳定拍市价格,至少应该从稳定供求、降低成本、改进拍卖的效率三个方面入手。
对于稳定拍卖价格和有效推行鲜活农产品拍卖交易方式,文章最后提出了几点建议：1,建立拍卖市场前进行充分的可行性分析。2,大力发展行业协会,完善农产品拍卖规定。3,尽量丰富拍卖市场中农产品的品种,保证稳定的供货量。4,推广高科技,努力降低农产品成本。5,提高农产品的质量,执行严格的标准化体系。6,创造农产品生产的特色种类及品牌,努力研发具有自主知识产权的新品种。7,加快基础设施和服务体系建设。8,设计高效的拍卖机制,持续地改进拍卖流程运营绩效。9,建设电子商务,发展网上拍卖。
Along with continuous deepening of market economic reform, agricultural products auction has become one of the most extensive areas of auction theory and applied research in our country. Although this international mode is yet not popular in China under present industry system, we still had the necessity to continue exploring its public platform function for market as "pricing form center, logistics distribution center and information exchange center". Agricultural products such as Vegetables, fruit, flowers and plants are easily rotten, especially suit for the auction way when large-scale transactions. Kunming International Flower Auction Trading Center KIFA works quite well. It is a typical case of China's fresh agricultural products auction markets. So this paper taking KIFA as an example plans to find out the influence factors of fresh agricultural products auction price in the situation that traditional market and auction market are coexisting, and explore the ways to stabilize auction price and attract more participators.
This paper first find out the possible influence factors through literature study and designed an questionnaire on it, obtained the weight of each factor through analytic hierarchy process AHP after giving out the questionnaires and getting them back, then get the most important influence factors on external factor evaluation matrix EFE and internal factor appraisal matrix IFE; it also do statistical analysis of KIFA 2008 rose transaction volume and auction price fluctuation with EXCEL, and do Equilibrium Analysis of supply-price with the cobweb model. At the end of this paper put forward some proposals to fresh agricultural products auction.
Auction prices of Fresh agricultural products are affected by many factors, not only including supply and demand factors, but also cost and auction factors. After the study of this paper we got this conclusion:the number of agricultural products for sale, natural disasters, holiday turn from the supply side; the economic development of proposed sale regional, consumer income, consumer attitudes and preferences from the demand side; production costs, quality and grade of agricultural products and planned profit of suppliers and wholesalers from the cost side; the number and strategy of buyers from the action side are the most important factors. If we want to make the action price stable, we should start with stabilize supply-demand, reduce costs and improve auction efficiency.
In order to carry out fresh agricultural products auction effectively, this paper make these suggestions:1, do a fully feasibility analysis before establish auction market.2, strive to develop trade associations and perfect agricultural products auction rules.3, enrich the variety and number of agriculture products and ensure stable supply capacity.4, Spread high technology and struggle to lower cost.5, improve the quality of agriculture products, carry out a strict standardization system.6, create features and brand of agriculture products, try to develop new varieties with independent intellectual property rights.7, speed up infrastructure and supporting services system construction.8, design efficient auction mechanism, continuously improve operational performance auction process.9, building e-commerce, develop the online auctions.
引文
1 孔婷婷,许北鸥,农产品价格变动的因素及影响分析,农机化研究,2009,31(1)：P26-28.
2 余济云,邓隆叶,湖南农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素分析-基于层次分析法,农业经济,2009年7月,P77-79.
3 谭国富,拍卖理论,北京：商务印书馆,2002,P4.
4 徐永国,拍卖经济理论综述,经济研究,2002年第9期,P84-95.
5 李泽华,关于发展我国鲜活农产品拍卖市场的思考,农业经济问题,2002年第7期,P53-56.
6 吴云彬,荷兰花荷拍卖市场去年总交易额增长今年有望稳中有升,中国花卉园艺半月刊,2009年5月,第9期,P56-57.
7 张群,从荷兰花卉业的成功经验论云南花卉产业的发展,西部林业科学,第34卷第1期2005年3月.
8 赵璟,昆明国际花卉拍卖交易中心营销模式初探,林业经济问题,2003,23(4),P222-225.
9 无,国内花卉拍卖要克服的困难(上),花木盆景：花卉园艺,2004(3),P46-46
10 花荷,认识合并后的荷兰花荷鲜花植物拍卖行,中国花卉园艺·半月刊,2008年10月,第19期,P48-49.
11 Qin Kai-Da, Yang Bao-Jian "Operations Strategy for Developing Chinese Flower Auction Markets:Results from a Comparative Analysis"
12 张乐,我国农产品拍卖市场建设新思考,[硕士学位论文],昆明,云南财经大学,2008.
13 丁梅生,郭苏文,减价拍卖的经济学分析,商业时代,2005(18),P87-89.
14 窦莉梅,拍卖市场上拍品价格形成的一般抽象-几种经济学理论对拍卖价格形成的作用探析,经济师,2006(6)：P26-27.
15 辛彦波,从消费者剩余角度分析拍卖价格的非完全市场价值类型,中国资产评估,2009(9)：P35-37.
16 窦莉梅,关于拍卖价格理论研究的文献述评,上海商学院学报,2009(2)：P45-51.
17 林锡彬,徐柏园,葛爱华,中国农产品拍卖方式的探析一深圳市福田农产品拍卖批发市场成功运行的启示,中国农村观察,2001年3月,P39-44.
18 李泽华,关于发展我国鲜活农产品拍卖市场的思考,农业经济问题,2002年第7期,P53-56.
19 赵璟,昆明国际花卉拍卖交易中心营销模式初探,林业经济问题,2003,23(4)：P222-225.
20 李大胜,张光辉,农产品拍卖市场的若干技术经济问题探讨,农业技术经济,2003(1)：P31-35.
21 朱信凯,对我国农产品拍卖交易方式的思考,经济问题,2005年第3期,P48-50.
22 曾进,荷兰式拍卖的内在缺陷及其超越,商业时代,2008(34)：P69-70.
23 郭丽华,试论农产品价格构成及其改善,生产力研究,2006(3),29-31.
24 郭愫劼,徐宏源,田志宏,2006年以来本轮农产品价格变化研究综述,世界农业,2008(10)：P13-16.
25 徐雪高,新一轮农产品价格波动周期：特征、机理及影响,财经研究,2008,34(8)：P110-119.
26 张海亮,王江,花卉拍卖参拍顺序对竞价的影响,中国管理信息化,2008(21)：P89-92.
27 周姁,张建波,我国农产品价格上涨原因及农业政策分析,江西财经大学学报,2008(4)：P60-63.
28 林建永,赵瑾璐,农产品价格波动的非典型因素探析,理论探索,2009(5)：P73-75.
29 巫国兴,我国农产品价格波动研究,农业经济问题,1997年第6期,P18-23.
30 张晓明,影响拍卖成交价的八种因素,中国拍卖理论与研究,2006.9,P14-16.
31 谭国富,拍卖理论,北京：商务印书馆,2002,P38。
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[7]无,国内花卉拍卖要克服的困难(上),花木盆景：花卉园艺,2004(3),P46-46
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[24]张海亮,王江,花卉拍卖参拍顺序对竞价的影响,中国管理信息化,2008(21)：P89-92.
[25]周姁,张建波,我国农产品价格上涨原因及农业政策分析,江西财经大学学报,2008(4)：P60-63.
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2 余济云,邓隆叶,湖南农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素分析-基于层次分析法,农业经济,2009年7月,P77-79.
3 谭国富,拍卖理论,北京：商务印书馆,2002,P4.
4 徐永国,拍卖经济理论综述,经济研究,2002年第9期,P84-95.
5 李泽华,关于发展我国鲜活农产品拍卖市场的思考,农业经济问题,2002年第7期,P53-56.
6 吴云彬,荷兰花荷拍卖市场去年总交易额增长今年有望稳中有升,中国花卉园艺半月刊,2009年5月,第9期,P56-57.
7 张群,从荷兰花卉业的成功经验论云南花卉产业的发展,西部林业科学,第34卷第1期2005年3月.
8 赵璟,昆明国际花卉拍卖交易中心营销模式初探,林业经济问题,2003,23(4),P222-225.
9 无,国内花卉拍卖要克服的困难(上),花木盆景：花卉园艺,2004(3),P46-46
10 花荷,认识合并后的荷兰花荷鲜花植物拍卖行,中国花卉园艺·半月刊,2008年10月,第19期,P48-49.
11 Qin Kai-Da, Yang Bao-Jian "Operations Strategy for Developing Chinese Flower Auction Markets:Results from a Comparative Analysis"
12 张乐,我国农产品拍卖市场建设新思考,[硕士学位论文],昆明,云南财经大学,2008.
13 丁梅生,郭苏文,减价拍卖的经济学分析,商业时代,2005(18),P87-89.
14 窦莉梅,拍卖市场上拍品价格形成的一般抽象-几种经济学理论对拍卖价格形成的作用探析,经济师,2006(6)：P26-27.
15 辛彦波,从消费者剩余角度分析拍卖价格的非完全市场价值类型,中国资产评估,2009(9)：P35-37.
16 窦莉梅,关于拍卖价格理论研究的文献述评,上海商学院学报,2009(2)：P45-51.
17 林锡彬,徐柏园,葛爱华,中国农产品拍卖方式的探析一深圳市福田农产品拍卖批发市场成功运行的启示,中国农村观察,2001年3月,P39-44.
18 李泽华,关于发展我国鲜活农产品拍卖市场的思考,农业经济问题,2002年第7期,P53-56.
19 赵璟,昆明国际花卉拍卖交易中心营销模式初探,林业经济问题,2003,23(4)：P222-225.
20 李大胜,张光辉,农产品拍卖市场的若干技术经济问题探讨,农业技术经济,2003(1)：P31-35.
21 朱信凯,对我国农产品拍卖交易方式的思考,经济问题,2005年第3期,P48-50.
22 曾进,荷兰式拍卖的内在缺陷及其超越,商业时代,2008(34)：P69-70.
23 郭丽华,试论农产品价格构成及其改善,生产力研究,2006(3),29-31.
24 郭愫劼,徐宏源,田志宏,2006年以来本轮农产品价格变化研究综述,世界农业,2008(10)：P13-16.
25 徐雪高,新一轮农产品价格波动周期：特征、机理及影响,财经研究,2008,34(8)：P110-119.
26 张海亮,王江,花卉拍卖参拍顺序对竞价的影响,中国管理信息化,2008(21)：P89-92.
27 周姁,张建波,我国农产品价格上涨原因及农业政策分析,江西财经大学学报,2008(4)：P60-63.
28 林建永,赵瑾璐,农产品价格波动的非典型因素探析,理论探索,2009(5)：P73-75.
29 巫国兴,我国农产品价格波动研究,农业经济问题,1997年第6期,P18-23.
30 张晓明,影响拍卖成交价的八种因素,中国拍卖理论与研究,2006.9,P14-16.
31 谭国富,拍卖理论,北京：商务印书馆,2002,P38。
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[3]李泽华,关于发展我国鲜活农产品拍卖市场的思考,农业经济问题,2002年第7期,P53-56.
[4]吴云彬,荷兰花荷拍卖市场去年总交易额增长今年有望稳中有升,中国花卉园艺半月刊,2009年5月,第9期,P56-57.
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[20]曾进,荷兰式拍卖的内在缺陷及其超越,商业时代,2008(34)：P69-70.
[21]郭丽华,试论农产品价格构成及其改善,生产力研究,2006(3),29-31.
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