中国区域经济增长效率集聚与地区差距研究
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摘要
近年来,我国经济以近两位数的速度快速增长,经济社会面貌大为改观,国内外学术界称这种现象为“中国奇迹”,然而与这种快速变化相伴随的是我国经济活动空间布局的深刻变化,区域经济“块状”特征的形成、地区差距的扩大和经济增长效率的地理集中便是该变化中凸显出的重要问题。由此而来的问题便是：第一,地区差距与经济增长效率地理集中现象形成的内在机理是什么?第二,区域经济的“块状”分布和经济增长效率的地理集中,二者近乎相同的空间布局仅仅是偶然体现,还是它们之间有着必然的联系?第三,经济增长效率的地理集中、区域经济增长的“块状”分布和地区差距的形成这三个现象均与地理或空间因素相关,由此产生的问题便是地理因素在这三者的形成中究竟起着什么作用?本研究便在引入了动态性的空间经济学视角下分析了这些在经济增长过程中形成、在空间中体现的重要经济问题。具体地,我们按照以下思路安排研究内容：
第一部分,提出问题与文献回顾,包括论文中的第一、第二章。第一章主要介绍研究目的与研究意义,界定了经济增长效率集聚和地区差距的概念,说明了论文的研究思路、内容、方法与技术路线,并指出了可能的创新与不足。第二章主要从地区差距、经济增长效率及经济集聚三方面回顾了相关文献,以期为本研究寻找恰当的视角与理论支持。
第二部分,理论研究,包括论文中的第三章。第三章主要建立了“分工——外部性——报酬递增——效率集聚——经济增长——地区差距”的总体分析框架,并阐述了具体作用机制。
第三部分,实证研究,包括论文中的第四、第五、第六章。第四章在要素与经济非协同集聚视角下分析了地区差距形成的一般过程,结合中国相关年份与地区的面板数据,实证检验了劳动力、资本、技术等要素投入对我国地区差距的影响,并对这些因素的影响方式与我国地区差距的时空分布作了经济地理上的分解。第五章采用SML指数法测算了1998-2011年期间全国各地区的生产率指数和环境技术效率,进而在空间经济学框架下提出了经济关联、知识关联、规模收益和交通运输条件等可能引起效率集聚的因素,并运用“系统广义矩估计法”对这些因素的作用方向与方式作了实证检验。第六章在运用统计分析和动态分布分析初步判断要素投入、经济增长效率对地区差距贡献份额的基础上,又运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和面板误差修正模型等方法直接检验了要素投入、经济增长效率与地区差距的长短期关系,并从分工因素、市场因素与政策因素三方面检验了可能导致地区差距与经济增长效率形成和集聚的深层次原因,在这些分析的基础上,又给出了我国经济地理重塑的基本设想。
第四部分,结论与政策建议部分,包括论文的第七章。在对研究内容和研究结论简要总结的基础上,给出了我国地区差距治理的思路与措施。
通过这些分析,得出的结论主要有：(1)分工是经济增长效率集聚及地区差距形成的根源。(2)知识溢出、交通成本对经济增长效率集聚和地区差距具有重要影响。(3)我国区域经济发展水平具有明显的地理集中特征,而要素与经济的非协同集聚是地区差距形成的直接原因。(4)各地区经济增长效率的空间分布具有明显的地理集中性,并且省域经济增长效率提升主要是由技术进步所推动的,而技术效率的作用比较有限；省域经济增长效率表现出一定的趋同和溢出现象。(5)相对于要素投入,经济增长效率是影响我国地区差距的更为主要的因素。
根据上述分析与结论,我们给出的治理我国地区差距的简单思路为：在进一步推动经济集聚的同时,也要为经济及效率的空间溢出做好准备,并通过对各地区“第一自然”的再发现和“第二自然”的再创造实现经济地理的重塑。
For the past few years, the rate of economic growth in China increases by double-digit rate, and the situation of economy and society changes tremendously. These achievements and performances was called "China Miracle". Meanwhile, many problems in the geographical space appears prominently:the transformation of spatial distribution in economic activity, the formation of "lump" characteristics in regional economics, the broaden of regional disparity and the geographical concertration of economic growth efficiency. Therefor, the problems in this process are as follows:firstly, What's the specific mechanisms of spatial concertration of regional disparity and economic growth efficiency? Secondly, the "lump" concertration of regional economy and geographical concertration in spatial are distributed seemingly, are they just accidental distribution or they are necessarily hava a inner connection? Thirdy, the geographical concertration of economic growth efficiency, the "lump" characteristics in regional economic growth, and the formation of regional disparity, these three problems all are related to geography and spatial, in that way, what's the function of geography and spatial? Therefore, we analyzed these problems that take shapes in the process of economic growth and embodiment in the spatial in the perspective of new spatial economics. Concretely, we analyze these problems in the following:
Firstly, put forward the questions and literature review, including chapterl and chapter2. In chapter1, we introduced the study objectives and the significances, defined the concept of economic growth efficiency and regional disparity, illustrated the train of thought, contents, methods and technical route, also, pointed out the probable creation and shortcomings. In chapter2, we reviewed the literatures of regional disparity, economic growth efficiency and economic agglomeration, and the main purposes are find out the reasonable perspetive and theoretical support.
Secondly, theoretical analysis, including chapter3. In chapter3, we established the framework of "division-externality-increasing returns-economic growth-regional disparity", also, we expounded the concreate mechanism.
Thirdly, emperical study, including chapter4, chapter5and chapter6. In chapter4, we analyzed the general forming process of regional disparity in the perspective of non-coordinated agglomeration of factors and economy, combined the panel data of related provinces and years, tested the function of labor, capital and technology emperically, also, we decomposed the influence pattern and the space-time distribution of regional disparity. In chapter5, we applies the Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger index to measure China's regional productivity and technical efficiency from1998to2011; Then put forword the factors may give rise to the efficiency agglomeration:economic-linkage, knowledge-linkage, returns to scale, and transportation conditions; then explored the directions and paterns of these factors by System Generalized Method of Moments(SYS-GMM). In chapter6, we tentatively analyzed the relation among factor input, economic growth efficiency and regional disparity by statistical analysis and dynamical distribution analysis; then, examined the short-term and long-term relationship among factor input, economic growth efficiency and regional disparity by Panel Data Unitroot Test, Panel Data Cointegration Test and Panel Data Error Correction Model; the main aim of these analysis are finding out the main factor that induce the regional disparity, factor input or economic growth efficiency? finally, we analyzed the further reasons that bring about the regional disparity and economic growth efficiency in the aspects of division, marketization and government intervention.
Finally, conclusion and policy sugestions, including chapter7. Based on the summarization of study contents and coclusions, we put forward the management route and measures to reduce the regional disparity.
Based on the studies mentioned above, the may conclusions are as follows:(1) division are the source of economic growth efficiency agglomeration and regional disparity.(2) knowledge spill-over and transportation cost have a great influence upon economic growth efficiency agglomeration and regional disparity.(3) there are an obvious geographical agglomeration of regional economic level, and the direct reason of regional disparity are the non-coordinated agglomeration of factors and economy.(4) there are an obvious geographical concertration of regional economic growth efficiency, and the technological progress are the main driving force of the economic growth efficiency, but a limited function of technological efficiency; also, an obviously conclusion are the convergence and spill-over phenomenon in provincial economic growth efficiency.(5) related to factors input, the economic growth efficiency are the main factors that influence the regional disparity in China.
Based on the analysis and conclusions mentioned above, the simple method that reduce the regional disparity in China are as follows:promote the development of economic agglomeration furtherly, meanwhile, getting ready for the spatial spill-over of economy and efficiency, and the final results are the reshapment of economy and geography, in detail, the methods are rediscovering of "First Nature" and rebuilding of "Second Nature".
第一部分,提出问题与文献回顾,包括论文中的第一、第二章。第一章主要介绍研究目的与研究意义,界定了经济增长效率集聚和地区差距的概念,说明了论文的研究思路、内容、方法与技术路线,并指出了可能的创新与不足。第二章主要从地区差距、经济增长效率及经济集聚三方面回顾了相关文献,以期为本研究寻找恰当的视角与理论支持。
第二部分,理论研究,包括论文中的第三章。第三章主要建立了“分工——外部性——报酬递增——效率集聚——经济增长——地区差距”的总体分析框架,并阐述了具体作用机制。
第三部分,实证研究,包括论文中的第四、第五、第六章。第四章在要素与经济非协同集聚视角下分析了地区差距形成的一般过程,结合中国相关年份与地区的面板数据,实证检验了劳动力、资本、技术等要素投入对我国地区差距的影响,并对这些因素的影响方式与我国地区差距的时空分布作了经济地理上的分解。第五章采用SML指数法测算了1998-2011年期间全国各地区的生产率指数和环境技术效率,进而在空间经济学框架下提出了经济关联、知识关联、规模收益和交通运输条件等可能引起效率集聚的因素,并运用“系统广义矩估计法”对这些因素的作用方向与方式作了实证检验。第六章在运用统计分析和动态分布分析初步判断要素投入、经济增长效率对地区差距贡献份额的基础上,又运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和面板误差修正模型等方法直接检验了要素投入、经济增长效率与地区差距的长短期关系,并从分工因素、市场因素与政策因素三方面检验了可能导致地区差距与经济增长效率形成和集聚的深层次原因,在这些分析的基础上,又给出了我国经济地理重塑的基本设想。
第四部分,结论与政策建议部分,包括论文的第七章。在对研究内容和研究结论简要总结的基础上,给出了我国地区差距治理的思路与措施。
通过这些分析,得出的结论主要有：(1)分工是经济增长效率集聚及地区差距形成的根源。(2)知识溢出、交通成本对经济增长效率集聚和地区差距具有重要影响。(3)我国区域经济发展水平具有明显的地理集中特征,而要素与经济的非协同集聚是地区差距形成的直接原因。(4)各地区经济增长效率的空间分布具有明显的地理集中性,并且省域经济增长效率提升主要是由技术进步所推动的,而技术效率的作用比较有限；省域经济增长效率表现出一定的趋同和溢出现象。(5)相对于要素投入,经济增长效率是影响我国地区差距的更为主要的因素。
根据上述分析与结论,我们给出的治理我国地区差距的简单思路为：在进一步推动经济集聚的同时,也要为经济及效率的空间溢出做好准备,并通过对各地区“第一自然”的再发现和“第二自然”的再创造实现经济地理的重塑。
For the past few years, the rate of economic growth in China increases by double-digit rate, and the situation of economy and society changes tremendously. These achievements and performances was called "China Miracle". Meanwhile, many problems in the geographical space appears prominently:the transformation of spatial distribution in economic activity, the formation of "lump" characteristics in regional economics, the broaden of regional disparity and the geographical concertration of economic growth efficiency. Therefor, the problems in this process are as follows:firstly, What's the specific mechanisms of spatial concertration of regional disparity and economic growth efficiency? Secondly, the "lump" concertration of regional economy and geographical concertration in spatial are distributed seemingly, are they just accidental distribution or they are necessarily hava a inner connection? Thirdy, the geographical concertration of economic growth efficiency, the "lump" characteristics in regional economic growth, and the formation of regional disparity, these three problems all are related to geography and spatial, in that way, what's the function of geography and spatial? Therefore, we analyzed these problems that take shapes in the process of economic growth and embodiment in the spatial in the perspective of new spatial economics. Concretely, we analyze these problems in the following:
Firstly, put forward the questions and literature review, including chapterl and chapter2. In chapter1, we introduced the study objectives and the significances, defined the concept of economic growth efficiency and regional disparity, illustrated the train of thought, contents, methods and technical route, also, pointed out the probable creation and shortcomings. In chapter2, we reviewed the literatures of regional disparity, economic growth efficiency and economic agglomeration, and the main purposes are find out the reasonable perspetive and theoretical support.
Secondly, theoretical analysis, including chapter3. In chapter3, we established the framework of "division-externality-increasing returns-economic growth-regional disparity", also, we expounded the concreate mechanism.
Thirdly, emperical study, including chapter4, chapter5and chapter6. In chapter4, we analyzed the general forming process of regional disparity in the perspective of non-coordinated agglomeration of factors and economy, combined the panel data of related provinces and years, tested the function of labor, capital and technology emperically, also, we decomposed the influence pattern and the space-time distribution of regional disparity. In chapter5, we applies the Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger index to measure China's regional productivity and technical efficiency from1998to2011; Then put forword the factors may give rise to the efficiency agglomeration:economic-linkage, knowledge-linkage, returns to scale, and transportation conditions; then explored the directions and paterns of these factors by System Generalized Method of Moments(SYS-GMM). In chapter6, we tentatively analyzed the relation among factor input, economic growth efficiency and regional disparity by statistical analysis and dynamical distribution analysis; then, examined the short-term and long-term relationship among factor input, economic growth efficiency and regional disparity by Panel Data Unitroot Test, Panel Data Cointegration Test and Panel Data Error Correction Model; the main aim of these analysis are finding out the main factor that induce the regional disparity, factor input or economic growth efficiency? finally, we analyzed the further reasons that bring about the regional disparity and economic growth efficiency in the aspects of division, marketization and government intervention.
Finally, conclusion and policy sugestions, including chapter7. Based on the summarization of study contents and coclusions, we put forward the management route and measures to reduce the regional disparity.
Based on the studies mentioned above, the may conclusions are as follows:(1) division are the source of economic growth efficiency agglomeration and regional disparity.(2) knowledge spill-over and transportation cost have a great influence upon economic growth efficiency agglomeration and regional disparity.(3) there are an obvious geographical agglomeration of regional economic level, and the direct reason of regional disparity are the non-coordinated agglomeration of factors and economy.(4) there are an obvious geographical concertration of regional economic growth efficiency, and the technological progress are the main driving force of the economic growth efficiency, but a limited function of technological efficiency; also, an obviously conclusion are the convergence and spill-over phenomenon in provincial economic growth efficiency.(5) related to factors input, the economic growth efficiency are the main factors that influence the regional disparity in China.
Based on the analysis and conclusions mentioned above, the simple method that reduce the regional disparity in China are as follows:promote the development of economic agglomeration furtherly, meanwhile, getting ready for the spatial spill-over of economy and efficiency, and the final results are the reshapment of economy and geography, in detail, the methods are rediscovering of "First Nature" and rebuilding of "Second Nature".
引文
1 数据来源：据《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》、《中国统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
2 数据来源：据《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》、《中国统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
3 东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省(市)；中部地区包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南等8个省级行政区；西北地区包括四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古等12个省(市、区)。由于重庆市在1997年才成立,所以未成立之前的相关数据和四川省一起计算。
4 数据来源：据《中国统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
5 资料来源：《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》。
6 英国国家歌剧院(English National Opera)旁边的拐角处就是圣马丁巷(St. Martin's Court),在这条很短的街道上遍布着二手书及印刷品的销售商,Fujita, Krugman等人将该现象成为“圣马丁巷现象”。
7 在传统的贸易理论中并不考虑运输成本,但现实贸易中的运输成本又是客观存在的,从而保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson,1952)创造了“冰山成本”的概念,并建议人们想象货物在运输途中“融化”掉了一些,最终只有一部分能达到目的地,损失掉的那一部分便是运输成本。
8 安虎森(2009)的《新经济地理学原理》一书中,将全域溢出模型与局部溢出模型划入第Ⅰ类经济关联模型中,但由于这两个模型涉及到创新部门的技术溢出效应,因此,本研究采用殷广卫(2011)的《新经济地理学视角下的产业集聚机制》一书中的划分方法,将这两个模型划入知识关联视角下的经济集聚机制。
17 资料来源：http://www.caep.org.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=3105
18 资料来源：据《国际统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
19 资料来源：IEA,《World Energy Outlook 2011》.
20 Harris(1954)所给出的市场潜能的计算公式为：mpr=(?)∑j≠rYj/drj+Yr/drr,其中,Yj、Yr分别是第j和第r个地区的GDP,drj是第r和j个地区之间的距离,drj的具体测算方法见Crozet(2004);drr表示区域内部的距离,其计算公式为drr=2/3(?)arear/π,arear为区域土地面积。对于drj,我们用省会城市之间的距离来表示而距离信息来自国家测绘局公布的国家基础地理信息系统。
21 企业平均规模=工业总产值/企业单位数,统计口径为全部国有及规模以上非国有工业企业,数据来自国研网数据库,1998年、2004年确缺失的数据由《新中国55年统计资料》获得。
23 矩阵A是标准概率矩阵,则Am(m=1,2,…)满足条件：aij>0且∑jN=1aij=1.
26 铁路密度和高速公路密度为相应的铁路里程与高速公路里程与区域面积的比值,具体数据来自《中国统计年鉴2012》。
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2 数据来源：据《新中国五十年统计资料汇编》、《中国统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
3 东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南等11个省(市)；中部地区包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南等8个省级行政区；西北地区包括四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古等12个省(市、区)。由于重庆市在1997年才成立,所以未成立之前的相关数据和四川省一起计算。
4 数据来源：据《中国统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
5 资料来源：《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》。
6 英国国家歌剧院(English National Opera)旁边的拐角处就是圣马丁巷(St. Martin's Court),在这条很短的街道上遍布着二手书及印刷品的销售商,Fujita, Krugman等人将该现象成为“圣马丁巷现象”。
7 在传统的贸易理论中并不考虑运输成本,但现实贸易中的运输成本又是客观存在的,从而保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson,1952)创造了“冰山成本”的概念,并建议人们想象货物在运输途中“融化”掉了一些,最终只有一部分能达到目的地,损失掉的那一部分便是运输成本。
8 安虎森(2009)的《新经济地理学原理》一书中,将全域溢出模型与局部溢出模型划入第Ⅰ类经济关联模型中,但由于这两个模型涉及到创新部门的技术溢出效应,因此,本研究采用殷广卫(2011)的《新经济地理学视角下的产业集聚机制》一书中的划分方法,将这两个模型划入知识关联视角下的经济集聚机制。
17 资料来源：http://www.caep.org.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=3105
18 资料来源：据《国际统计年鉴2011》计算所得。
19 资料来源：IEA,《World Energy Outlook 2011》.
20 Harris(1954)所给出的市场潜能的计算公式为：mpr=(?)∑j≠rYj/drj+Yr/drr,其中,Yj、Yr分别是第j和第r个地区的GDP,drj是第r和j个地区之间的距离,drj的具体测算方法见Crozet(2004);drr表示区域内部的距离,其计算公式为drr=2/3(?)arear/π,arear为区域土地面积。对于drj,我们用省会城市之间的距离来表示而距离信息来自国家测绘局公布的国家基础地理信息系统。
21 企业平均规模=工业总产值/企业单位数,统计口径为全部国有及规模以上非国有工业企业,数据来自国研网数据库,1998年、2004年确缺失的数据由《新中国55年统计资料》获得。
23 矩阵A是标准概率矩阵,则Am(m=1,2,…)满足条件：aij>0且∑jN=1aij=1.
26 铁路密度和高速公路密度为相应的铁路里程与高速公路里程与区域面积的比值,具体数据来自《中国统计年鉴2012》。
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