技术差距对我国出口产品质量影响研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国出口产品依赖价格优势畅销海外。然而,近十年来,伴随着国外对我国出口产品反倾销、反补贴的逐渐加强以及国内劳动力、原材料成本的上升,我国出口产品的这种价格优势受到较大的冲击。在这个背景下,研究我国出口产品质量升级问题显得颇为必要和迫切。出口产品质量的提升不仅能够有效解决上述问题,而且有助于实现我国出口结构的优化、外贸经济效益的提高及产业结构的升级。
然而,受产品质量难以测度以及相关微观数据难以获取的限制,目前,对我国出口产品质量升级问题的相关研究很少。部分学者从出口技术复杂度的视角研究了我国出口产品的结构变化,另有部分学者从出口二元边际的角度探讨我国出口产品结构的变迁。与已有绝大多数文献不同,本文从技术差距的视角研究我国出口产品质量升级问题。需要指出的是,出口复杂度与出口产品品质并不等同,前者强调出口产品的技术含量,后者侧重研究出口产品的质量水平。这两者是测度我国出口结构升级的两个不同维度。本文试图回答以下几个问题：技术差距对我国出口产品质量升级是否存在影响?若存在影响,这种影响是否受某个条件的限制?如何从技术差距的视角重新认识我国的出口产品质量升级问题?在出口产品质量的测度方法上,本文采用Hallak&Schoot(2011)创建的出口质量指数测度我国制造业行业水平上的出口产品质量水平。出口质量指数把出口产品价格分解为包含质量因素与不包含质量因素两部分,充分考虑了各关键因素对出口产品质量的影响并将其纳入计量模型,运用迭代逼近的方法最终测度出一国出口产品质量。出口质量指数的主要优点在于它有效地克服了用出口价格衡量出口产品质量的缺陷,其估测方法比较科学、合理,能够测度一个国家行业层面的出口产品质量水平。出口质量指数的主要不足是,它在质量测度模型中假定出口产品质量随时间呈线性变化趋势。这一假定可能并不符合实际情况。基于此不足,本文运用较先进的函数链神经网络对出口质量指数进行非线性自校正,从而得到了更为准确的我国制造业各行业的出口产品质量指数。
在结构安排上,本文一共包括7章。其基本结构和主要内容如下：第1章是导论,主要介绍本文研究的背景及意义、研究主要内容、研究结构、研究方法、创新点及不足等。第2章是相关文献综述,一共分为5小节。第1节对出口产品质量测度方法进行述评,第2节是关于出口产品质量理论研究的文献综述,第3节是关于出口产品质量实证研究文献述评,第4节是对中国出口产品质量升级相关文献进行综述,第5节是本章小结。第3章是关于技术差距与出口产品质量的理论分析,一共分为4小节。第1节讨论了技术差距对一国出口产品质量的影响机理；第2节基于质量改进型经济增长模型进行适当扩展,推导论证了技术差距对一国出口产品质量的作用条件；第3节探讨了技术差距对一国出口产品质量影响的动态演进趋势；第4节是本章小结。第4章是我国出口产品质量的测度。本章首先介绍已有文献中关于出口产品质量常用的测度指标并指出其不足,在此基础上介绍了出口产品质量指数测度框架并运用函数链神经网络对其进行合理修正,本章最后用修正的出口产品质量指数测算得出我国制造业28个行业的出口产品质量指数。第5章是技术差距与我国出口产品质量非线性关系的实证分析。在第1节,构建了关于技术差距对我国出口产品质量非线性影响的计量模型,对各变量进行描述并对数据来源进行了说明；第2节是关于技术差距对我国出口产品质量非线性影响的实证检验及结果分析；第3节分别从技术差距大小、外资来源地、所有制结构、贸易方式及行业资本密集度等角度对大样本进行分组,展开稳健性检验。在有效处理变量内生性问题之后,稳健性检验结论验证了在我国大多数制造业行业普遍存在技术差距对出口产品质量的非线性影响；第4节为本章小结。在第5章基本分析结论的基础上,第6章进一步考察了技术差距对我国出口产品质量门槛效应的存在性问题。门槛回归检验结果表明,技术差距对我国制造业出口产品质量存在门槛效应。然后,本章根据门槛值对我国制造业行业进行内生分组,并分别对各个分样本进行了实证检验。检验结果表明,在技术差距较小及较大的分样本,技术差距对我国出口产品质量的影响很微弱；在技术差距适中组,技术差距能够显著地推动我国出口产品质量升级。本章的实证研究还发现,外资出资比例、国内研发水平等对我国制造业出口产品质量的影响均受到技术差距的约束。此外,本章第4节从经验层面对比考察了技术差距与国内研发对我国出口产品质量的影响差异。实证结果发现：在技术差距较小组,国内研发对技术差距存在较明显的“替代效应”；在技术差距适中组,技术差距对国内研发存在较显著的“挤出效应”；在技术差距较大组,技术差距对出口产品质量的贡献很微弱且不显著,研发物质资本投入对出口产品质量贡献较大,而研发人员投入贡献较小。第7章是本文主要结论与政策涵义。在系统归纳本文理论及经验分析结论的基础上,结合我国目前制造业基本发展状况及吸引外资情况,本章对我国制造业出口产品质量升级提出了相应的政策性建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China's export products have been selling well overseas relying on the price advantage. However, in the recent ten years, along with the anti-dumping, anti-subsidy coming from foreign countries on China's export products and the gradual rising cost of domestic labor&rising raw material, the price advantage of China's export products is greatly affected. In this context, research on China's export product quality upgrading is quite necessary and urgent. Export products quality upgrading can not only solve the above problems effectively, but also help to improve and optimize the economic benefits of foreign trade, China's export structure and industrial structure upgrading.
However, owing to the product quality being difficult to measure and the difficulty of relevant micro-data obtaining, the problem of China's export products upgrading has been researched rarely by now. Some scholars study the structural changes of China's export products from the export of technical complexity perspective, some scholars focus on the changes of our export products structure from the export of two-dimensional marginal point. Different from the most existing literatures, this paper studies China's export product quality upgrading from the technology gap perspective. What needs to point out is that export sophistication and export product quality is not the same, the former emphasizes the technological content of export products, while the latter focuses on the study of export products quality. These are two different dimensions to measure China's export structure upgrading. This paper attempts to answer the following questions:first, whether technology gap has influenced on China's export product quality upgrade? If any, are there any conditions which limit the effect of technological gap on export quality? How to improve the quality of export products in our country from technological gap perspective? About the measure of the quality of export products, this paper uses adjusted export quality index to measure the level of export product quality level. Export quality index divides the price of export products into two parts including quality factors and not containing quality factor, considers the effect of each factor on the quality of export products and its incorporation of econometric model, and uses the method of iterative approximation to final estimate accurately the quality of export products. The main advantage of export quality index is that it overcomes effectively the defects of the measure the quality of export products with export prices, the estimation method is reasonable and accurate, and can measure the quality level of products on a country industry level. The main problem is that it has a very strict assumption (which assumes that the export product quality varies linearly with time), this assumption may not conform to the actual situation. In the light of this question, by using the function chain neural network, this paper obtains the adjusted quality index of export products in each industry of our country manufacturing industry.
In the structure arrangement, this paper includes seven chapters. The basic structure and main contents are as follows:the first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the writing background and significance, research contents, research structure, research methods and innovative points. The second chapter is a literature review which is divided into five parts. First part carries on the review to the quality measure of export products, followed by a literature review on the export product quality related theory researches, the third part is the review of empirical research literature about export quality upgrading, and then to remark on the Chinese export product quality upgrading, finally this chapter gives the literature summary. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis about the technology gap with the export product quality theory, which is divided into four parts. The first part is the mechanic analysis about the effect of technology gap on export product quality; the second part is the quality-improved economic growth model which reaches a nonlinear relations conclusion about technology gap and export quality; the third part is on the dynamic evolution trend of technology gap on the impact of the export product quality; last part is the summary of this chapter. The fourth chapter is the measure on China's export product quality. This chapter firstly introduces the existing literature about the measure method of export products quality, then points out their insufficiency, and then introduces the export product quality index measurement framework and uses the function chain neural network to carry on the reasonable correction. At last, by using the modified export product quality index, this paper estimates China's export product quality about28manufacturing industries. The fifth chapter is the empirical test on the nonlinear relationship between technology gap and the quality of export products. First of all, we use three different methods to calculate the level of technical gap, then performs the nonlinear empirical analysis; secondly, to further clarify the role of technology gap, we join the interaction term about technology gap and foreign investment in the measurement model; then, in order to enhance the robustness of the empirical results, the endogenous test is done, after handling the endogenous variable effectively, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between technology gap and export product quality is verified again; finally, according to several indicators such as technology gap, source of foreign investment, foreign investment form, trade patterns and factor intensity, the large sample are divided into few sub sample to examine and analysis the robustness of above conclusions. Large sample and sub sample results all verify the nonlinearity existence of the technology gap on the quality of export products in most manufacturing industry of our country industry. The sixth chapter is based on the empirical analysis conclusion about the fifth chapter. Its aim is to test the existence of threshold effect about technology gap on China's export product quality. The test results show that there exists a threshold effect on China's manufacturing export product quality. Then, the endogenous grouping is done according to the threshold value. The test results show that the effect of technology gap, in the small and large samples, on China's export product quality is weak; in the moderate group, the technology gap can significantly promote China's export product quality upgrading. The study also found that the influence of the proportion of FDI and domestic R&D level on of the quality of export products are subject to technology gap. After studying the influence of technology gap on China's export product quality, this paper classifies the domestic R&D (the domestic R&D includes R&D investment of the material capital and R&D investment in human capital), investigate the influence of domestic research on China's export product quality from the experience level. The results show that:domestic R&D has obvious "substitution effect" on technology gap in the small technology gap group; in the moderate group, there exists a significant "crowding out" effect on R&D from technology gap; in the big technology gap group, the contribution of R&D in material capital investment is bigger than that of R&D in human capital. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy meaning. Based on the summarizing on the theoretical and empirical analysis results, combined with the current manufacturing industry development situation and attracting foreign investment, the corresponding policy recommendations on China's export product quality upgrading are proposed.
然而,受产品质量难以测度以及相关微观数据难以获取的限制,目前,对我国出口产品质量升级问题的相关研究很少。部分学者从出口技术复杂度的视角研究了我国出口产品的结构变化,另有部分学者从出口二元边际的角度探讨我国出口产品结构的变迁。与已有绝大多数文献不同,本文从技术差距的视角研究我国出口产品质量升级问题。需要指出的是,出口复杂度与出口产品品质并不等同,前者强调出口产品的技术含量,后者侧重研究出口产品的质量水平。这两者是测度我国出口结构升级的两个不同维度。本文试图回答以下几个问题：技术差距对我国出口产品质量升级是否存在影响?若存在影响,这种影响是否受某个条件的限制?如何从技术差距的视角重新认识我国的出口产品质量升级问题?在出口产品质量的测度方法上,本文采用Hallak&Schoot(2011)创建的出口质量指数测度我国制造业行业水平上的出口产品质量水平。出口质量指数把出口产品价格分解为包含质量因素与不包含质量因素两部分,充分考虑了各关键因素对出口产品质量的影响并将其纳入计量模型,运用迭代逼近的方法最终测度出一国出口产品质量。出口质量指数的主要优点在于它有效地克服了用出口价格衡量出口产品质量的缺陷,其估测方法比较科学、合理,能够测度一个国家行业层面的出口产品质量水平。出口质量指数的主要不足是,它在质量测度模型中假定出口产品质量随时间呈线性变化趋势。这一假定可能并不符合实际情况。基于此不足,本文运用较先进的函数链神经网络对出口质量指数进行非线性自校正,从而得到了更为准确的我国制造业各行业的出口产品质量指数。
在结构安排上,本文一共包括7章。其基本结构和主要内容如下：第1章是导论,主要介绍本文研究的背景及意义、研究主要内容、研究结构、研究方法、创新点及不足等。第2章是相关文献综述,一共分为5小节。第1节对出口产品质量测度方法进行述评,第2节是关于出口产品质量理论研究的文献综述,第3节是关于出口产品质量实证研究文献述评,第4节是对中国出口产品质量升级相关文献进行综述,第5节是本章小结。第3章是关于技术差距与出口产品质量的理论分析,一共分为4小节。第1节讨论了技术差距对一国出口产品质量的影响机理；第2节基于质量改进型经济增长模型进行适当扩展,推导论证了技术差距对一国出口产品质量的作用条件；第3节探讨了技术差距对一国出口产品质量影响的动态演进趋势；第4节是本章小结。第4章是我国出口产品质量的测度。本章首先介绍已有文献中关于出口产品质量常用的测度指标并指出其不足,在此基础上介绍了出口产品质量指数测度框架并运用函数链神经网络对其进行合理修正,本章最后用修正的出口产品质量指数测算得出我国制造业28个行业的出口产品质量指数。第5章是技术差距与我国出口产品质量非线性关系的实证分析。在第1节,构建了关于技术差距对我国出口产品质量非线性影响的计量模型,对各变量进行描述并对数据来源进行了说明；第2节是关于技术差距对我国出口产品质量非线性影响的实证检验及结果分析；第3节分别从技术差距大小、外资来源地、所有制结构、贸易方式及行业资本密集度等角度对大样本进行分组,展开稳健性检验。在有效处理变量内生性问题之后,稳健性检验结论验证了在我国大多数制造业行业普遍存在技术差距对出口产品质量的非线性影响；第4节为本章小结。在第5章基本分析结论的基础上,第6章进一步考察了技术差距对我国出口产品质量门槛效应的存在性问题。门槛回归检验结果表明,技术差距对我国制造业出口产品质量存在门槛效应。然后,本章根据门槛值对我国制造业行业进行内生分组,并分别对各个分样本进行了实证检验。检验结果表明,在技术差距较小及较大的分样本,技术差距对我国出口产品质量的影响很微弱；在技术差距适中组,技术差距能够显著地推动我国出口产品质量升级。本章的实证研究还发现,外资出资比例、国内研发水平等对我国制造业出口产品质量的影响均受到技术差距的约束。此外,本章第4节从经验层面对比考察了技术差距与国内研发对我国出口产品质量的影响差异。实证结果发现：在技术差距较小组,国内研发对技术差距存在较明显的“替代效应”；在技术差距适中组,技术差距对国内研发存在较显著的“挤出效应”；在技术差距较大组,技术差距对出口产品质量的贡献很微弱且不显著,研发物质资本投入对出口产品质量贡献较大,而研发人员投入贡献较小。第7章是本文主要结论与政策涵义。在系统归纳本文理论及经验分析结论的基础上,结合我国目前制造业基本发展状况及吸引外资情况,本章对我国制造业出口产品质量升级提出了相应的政策性建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China's export products have been selling well overseas relying on the price advantage. However, in the recent ten years, along with the anti-dumping, anti-subsidy coming from foreign countries on China's export products and the gradual rising cost of domestic labor&rising raw material, the price advantage of China's export products is greatly affected. In this context, research on China's export product quality upgrading is quite necessary and urgent. Export products quality upgrading can not only solve the above problems effectively, but also help to improve and optimize the economic benefits of foreign trade, China's export structure and industrial structure upgrading.
However, owing to the product quality being difficult to measure and the difficulty of relevant micro-data obtaining, the problem of China's export products upgrading has been researched rarely by now. Some scholars study the structural changes of China's export products from the export of technical complexity perspective, some scholars focus on the changes of our export products structure from the export of two-dimensional marginal point. Different from the most existing literatures, this paper studies China's export product quality upgrading from the technology gap perspective. What needs to point out is that export sophistication and export product quality is not the same, the former emphasizes the technological content of export products, while the latter focuses on the study of export products quality. These are two different dimensions to measure China's export structure upgrading. This paper attempts to answer the following questions:first, whether technology gap has influenced on China's export product quality upgrade? If any, are there any conditions which limit the effect of technological gap on export quality? How to improve the quality of export products in our country from technological gap perspective? About the measure of the quality of export products, this paper uses adjusted export quality index to measure the level of export product quality level. Export quality index divides the price of export products into two parts including quality factors and not containing quality factor, considers the effect of each factor on the quality of export products and its incorporation of econometric model, and uses the method of iterative approximation to final estimate accurately the quality of export products. The main advantage of export quality index is that it overcomes effectively the defects of the measure the quality of export products with export prices, the estimation method is reasonable and accurate, and can measure the quality level of products on a country industry level. The main problem is that it has a very strict assumption (which assumes that the export product quality varies linearly with time), this assumption may not conform to the actual situation. In the light of this question, by using the function chain neural network, this paper obtains the adjusted quality index of export products in each industry of our country manufacturing industry.
In the structure arrangement, this paper includes seven chapters. The basic structure and main contents are as follows:the first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the writing background and significance, research contents, research structure, research methods and innovative points. The second chapter is a literature review which is divided into five parts. First part carries on the review to the quality measure of export products, followed by a literature review on the export product quality related theory researches, the third part is the review of empirical research literature about export quality upgrading, and then to remark on the Chinese export product quality upgrading, finally this chapter gives the literature summary. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis about the technology gap with the export product quality theory, which is divided into four parts. The first part is the mechanic analysis about the effect of technology gap on export product quality; the second part is the quality-improved economic growth model which reaches a nonlinear relations conclusion about technology gap and export quality; the third part is on the dynamic evolution trend of technology gap on the impact of the export product quality; last part is the summary of this chapter. The fourth chapter is the measure on China's export product quality. This chapter firstly introduces the existing literature about the measure method of export products quality, then points out their insufficiency, and then introduces the export product quality index measurement framework and uses the function chain neural network to carry on the reasonable correction. At last, by using the modified export product quality index, this paper estimates China's export product quality about28manufacturing industries. The fifth chapter is the empirical test on the nonlinear relationship between technology gap and the quality of export products. First of all, we use three different methods to calculate the level of technical gap, then performs the nonlinear empirical analysis; secondly, to further clarify the role of technology gap, we join the interaction term about technology gap and foreign investment in the measurement model; then, in order to enhance the robustness of the empirical results, the endogenous test is done, after handling the endogenous variable effectively, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between technology gap and export product quality is verified again; finally, according to several indicators such as technology gap, source of foreign investment, foreign investment form, trade patterns and factor intensity, the large sample are divided into few sub sample to examine and analysis the robustness of above conclusions. Large sample and sub sample results all verify the nonlinearity existence of the technology gap on the quality of export products in most manufacturing industry of our country industry. The sixth chapter is based on the empirical analysis conclusion about the fifth chapter. Its aim is to test the existence of threshold effect about technology gap on China's export product quality. The test results show that there exists a threshold effect on China's manufacturing export product quality. Then, the endogenous grouping is done according to the threshold value. The test results show that the effect of technology gap, in the small and large samples, on China's export product quality is weak; in the moderate group, the technology gap can significantly promote China's export product quality upgrading. The study also found that the influence of the proportion of FDI and domestic R&D level on of the quality of export products are subject to technology gap. After studying the influence of technology gap on China's export product quality, this paper classifies the domestic R&D (the domestic R&D includes R&D investment of the material capital and R&D investment in human capital), investigate the influence of domestic research on China's export product quality from the experience level. The results show that:domestic R&D has obvious "substitution effect" on technology gap in the small technology gap group; in the moderate group, there exists a significant "crowding out" effect on R&D from technology gap; in the big technology gap group, the contribution of R&D in material capital investment is bigger than that of R&D in human capital. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and policy meaning. Based on the summarizing on the theoretical and empirical analysis results, combined with the current manufacturing industry development situation and attracting foreign investment, the corresponding policy recommendations on China's export product quality upgrading are proposed.
引文
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