耦合视角下的旅游城市成长理论与实证研究
摘要
摘要：在后工业时期,网络化、生态化、融合化发展的背景下,旅游城市面临着开放的发展环境和多元的发展需求,对旅游城市的传统发展理念、发展思路提出新的挑战。现实中,供给与需求、规模与效益、速度与质量、政府与市场、经济效益与社会、环境效益、同质性与异质性、竞争与协作成为旅游城市面临的发展困境。旅游城市发展什么,怎样发展,如何评价旅游城市的发展水平和发展能力,引导城市的发展方向,成为理论和实践的发展要求。
本文依托北京市旅游发展委员会重大项目“世界旅游城市评价体系研究”和北京市哲学社会科学基金青年项目“北京建设国际一流旅游城市研究”,以统计资料数据和市场调查数据为基础,以旅游城市成长要素间的耦合互动关系为研究对象,构建旅游城市成长的理论模型,并在此基础上,提出以旅游吸引力、旅游发展力、城市支持力、旅游者满意度、网络人气为一级指标的评价指标体系；运用结构模型分析、方差分析、锡尔系数等方法对世界范围45个旅游业发达城市进行模型验证和实践应用；最后以北京为对象,运用结构模型与数据结果,在与15个世界一流综合性旅游大都市进行比较的基础上,针对其成长的制约因素,提出相应的成长路径与对策建议。
本文的研究结论主要包括：
第一,本文运用企业成长理论、城市理论,提出了旅游城市的成长是由旅游城市成长主体、成长资源、成长环境和成长空间构成的四维系统。成长主体是在旅游城市的成长进程中发挥重要作用的相关个体和组织,主要包括：旅游者、旅游产业和城市三种主体；成长资源是旅游吸引物、旅游服务设施、旅游人力、旅游投资、旅游信息服务、城市网络集群等资源的有机组合；成长空间既可指城市的物理空间、连接客源地和目的地所投射的立体空间、网络空间、信息空间,也可以理解为发展现状与未来目标的距离,成长空间的多维和有限的属性使得有质量的成长,而不是盲目追求速度和效益,成为旅游城市持续发展的关键。
第二,本文结合耦合理论、生态理论研究旅游城市成长主体间的互动关系和耦合机理。阐释了旅游产业与城市耦合成长中的相互促进与约束关系；构建了旅游城市耦合成长的发展圈和支持圈,认为二者之间的耦合关系决定了发展的复杂性和相对性；耦合程度的高低决定旅游城市成长效果的实现程度的高低,即旅游业与城市发展的耦合程度影响了旅游者感知和体验的满意程度,并进而会影响未来的旅游关注和旅游行为的产生。
第三,本文构建了旅游城市成长能力的理论框架,主要包括旅游吸引力、旅游发展力、城市支持力、旅游者满意度和网络人气五个一级测量维度。旅游吸引力解释了一个城市可以被视为旅游城市所需要具备的资源、区位等条件；旅游发展力是旅游业发展水平和持续发展能力的综合表现；城市支持力是旅游城市成长的外在支撑体系；旅游者满意度和网络人气则是旅游城市成长效果的体现,反映了旅游城市成长的质量与影响。
第四,旅游城市成长能力是一个基于成长理论、耦合理论、生态理论的创新概念,属于新理论的探索性研究,本文运用SEM方法对理论模型进行了验证性分析。首先对测量模型进行检验,明确各指数与评价指标间的隶属关系；其次,对各指数间关系的结构模型进行检验,认为五个分项指数间存在相关关系,由此认为存在一个潜在变量(本文将其命名为“旅游城市发展指数”)可以解释上述五个分项变量,并对此结构模型进行检验和修正。结果表明,旅游吸引力、旅游发展力、旅游者满意度对旅游城市成长存在直接影响,城市支持力、网络人气则起到间接影响。从影响程度来看,旅游业发展的自身实力是影响旅游城市成长能力的最主要原因；从具体指标来看,“环境质量”和“旅游总人次年均增长率”对旅游城市成长能力的影响是负向的,符合本文提出的成长空间“量的有限性”的观点,也符合可持续发展的理念,本文认为在提高发展质量的前提下,以较高的发展水平稳态增长,是旅游城市更为科学合理的发展思路。
第五,旅游城市发展指数说明旅游城市系统内部以及旅游城市系统与旅游者耦合发展的程度,本文以旅游发展与城市支持之间的相互关系作为划分依据,将旅游城市的演化分为优质耦合、中级耦合、勉强耦合、耦合复兴(或衰退)等阶段。从耦合模式来看,可分为协调模式、旅游滞后模式、城市滞后模式等,并对国内城市进行了分析。耦合模式的探讨则有助于城市把握发展的方向,尤其是便于发现自身的短板,以指导旅游城市发展战略的制定与实施。本文最后对北京及15个世界一流旅游城市进行比较分析,并提出了未来发展的对策建议。
本文建立以耦合成长为导向的研究框架,通过国内外城市数据的实证研究,验证了旅游城市成长评价的理论框架和各维度之间的作用机理,丰富了旅游城市理论和成长理论,为旅游城市成长力的培育,为城市规划、管理和营销提供了契合度较高的操作框架。
Abstract:In the post-industrial era, against the background of internetization, ecologicalization and amalgamation, tourism cities are faced with open development environment and diversified development demands, which pose new challenges to the traditional development philosophy and strategies of tourism cities. In reality, tourism cities are confronted with dilemmas between supply and demand, between scale and profit, between speed and quality, between government and market, between economic benefit and social and environmental benefit, between homogeny and heterogeneity, and between competition and cooperation. It is a demand both in theory and in practice to explore what tourism cities should develop and how to develop, to evaluate tourism cities' development level and capacity, and to guide the development direction.
This paper starts with the discussion of tourism cities' growth subjects, growth momentum and growth features, and uses the Coupling Theory to study the interaction among tourism cities' development subjects, thus explaining the mutual promotion and constraint relationship in the coupling development of tourist industry and city; secondly, based on the coupling mechanism of tourism cities, this paper builds a theory model of tourism cities' growth capacity from four perceives:growth foundation, growth strength, growth environment and growth effect, and constructs corresponding index system from five first-class index of tourist attractiveness, tourist development capacity, city support, tourists' satisfaction and internet popularity; thirdly, by using the structural equation model, this paper conducts empirical studies on45cities with developed tourist industry across the world, and on the bases of verifying the connection among variables, this paper proves and applies the structural equation model; fourthly, by using standard deviation, Theil coefficient, etc, this paper analyzes the growth differences among tourism cities in four areas including Asia Pacific, Europe, America, and East Asia and Africa, and discusses their development phases and growth models; finally, focusing on Beijing, the paper uses structural model and data to compare it with15first-class comprehensive tourist metropolises in the world, and comes up with growth path and suggestions based on its constraints in development.
The conclusions of this research include:
Firstly, the growth of a tourism city is a four dimensional system of growth subject, growth resources, growth environment and growth space. Compared with destination competitiveness, the growth of a tourism city emphasizes more on the connection and interaction of all elements in the system, which demonstrates the advantage of the coupling development of tourism and city;
Secondly, the growth space of a tourism city can be the city's physical space, and the stereoscopic space, internet space and information space that connect the tourists generating region and destination, but also can be understood as the distance between current status and future target. The multiple dimensions and the limitedness of the growth space make it key in a tourism city's sustainable development to seek for quality growth, instead of speed and benefit.
Thirdly, the growth of a tourism city is not only demonstrated in the independent development of the subjects including tourist industry, city, and tourists, but more importantly in the coupling development of the tourism city system and tourists, and of the tourist industry and the city. The interaction between tourist industry and the city will vary with the changes in time, place and demands, which further decide the development phase and model of the tourism city.
Fourthly, this paper proves the connections among tourist attractiveness, development capacity, tourists'satisfaction, the city's support and internet popularity, and further proves the relationship between these indicators and tourism city's development strength (development index in short). The results show that tourist attractiveness, development capacity, and tourists'satisfaction have direct influence on the development index, and the city's support and internet popularity have indirect influence.
Fifthly, the paper verifies that the regional difference is the main reason that affects overall difference. The development is relatively balanced in American and European areas; whereas the differences are huge in Asia Pacific, and East Asia and Africa areas.
Finally, the development index shows the coupling development of tourism city system and tourists. Based on this, this paper divides the evolution of tourism cities into phases including quality coupling, intermediate coupling, passable coupling, and coupling reviving (or declining), etc. In terms of coupling model, it can be categorized into coordinate model, lagging tourism model and lagging city model,etc.
On the basis of the research framework of coupling development, through empirical data studies of foreign and domestic tourism cities, this paper verifies the theory framework of tourism cities'growth evaluation and the interaction among those dimensions, enriches the theory of tourism cities and theory of development, and provides operation framework for city planning, management and marketing.
本文依托北京市旅游发展委员会重大项目“世界旅游城市评价体系研究”和北京市哲学社会科学基金青年项目“北京建设国际一流旅游城市研究”,以统计资料数据和市场调查数据为基础,以旅游城市成长要素间的耦合互动关系为研究对象,构建旅游城市成长的理论模型,并在此基础上,提出以旅游吸引力、旅游发展力、城市支持力、旅游者满意度、网络人气为一级指标的评价指标体系；运用结构模型分析、方差分析、锡尔系数等方法对世界范围45个旅游业发达城市进行模型验证和实践应用；最后以北京为对象,运用结构模型与数据结果,在与15个世界一流综合性旅游大都市进行比较的基础上,针对其成长的制约因素,提出相应的成长路径与对策建议。
本文的研究结论主要包括：
第一,本文运用企业成长理论、城市理论,提出了旅游城市的成长是由旅游城市成长主体、成长资源、成长环境和成长空间构成的四维系统。成长主体是在旅游城市的成长进程中发挥重要作用的相关个体和组织,主要包括：旅游者、旅游产业和城市三种主体；成长资源是旅游吸引物、旅游服务设施、旅游人力、旅游投资、旅游信息服务、城市网络集群等资源的有机组合；成长空间既可指城市的物理空间、连接客源地和目的地所投射的立体空间、网络空间、信息空间,也可以理解为发展现状与未来目标的距离,成长空间的多维和有限的属性使得有质量的成长,而不是盲目追求速度和效益,成为旅游城市持续发展的关键。
第二,本文结合耦合理论、生态理论研究旅游城市成长主体间的互动关系和耦合机理。阐释了旅游产业与城市耦合成长中的相互促进与约束关系；构建了旅游城市耦合成长的发展圈和支持圈,认为二者之间的耦合关系决定了发展的复杂性和相对性；耦合程度的高低决定旅游城市成长效果的实现程度的高低,即旅游业与城市发展的耦合程度影响了旅游者感知和体验的满意程度,并进而会影响未来的旅游关注和旅游行为的产生。
第三,本文构建了旅游城市成长能力的理论框架,主要包括旅游吸引力、旅游发展力、城市支持力、旅游者满意度和网络人气五个一级测量维度。旅游吸引力解释了一个城市可以被视为旅游城市所需要具备的资源、区位等条件；旅游发展力是旅游业发展水平和持续发展能力的综合表现；城市支持力是旅游城市成长的外在支撑体系；旅游者满意度和网络人气则是旅游城市成长效果的体现,反映了旅游城市成长的质量与影响。
第四,旅游城市成长能力是一个基于成长理论、耦合理论、生态理论的创新概念,属于新理论的探索性研究,本文运用SEM方法对理论模型进行了验证性分析。首先对测量模型进行检验,明确各指数与评价指标间的隶属关系；其次,对各指数间关系的结构模型进行检验,认为五个分项指数间存在相关关系,由此认为存在一个潜在变量(本文将其命名为“旅游城市发展指数”)可以解释上述五个分项变量,并对此结构模型进行检验和修正。结果表明,旅游吸引力、旅游发展力、旅游者满意度对旅游城市成长存在直接影响,城市支持力、网络人气则起到间接影响。从影响程度来看,旅游业发展的自身实力是影响旅游城市成长能力的最主要原因；从具体指标来看,“环境质量”和“旅游总人次年均增长率”对旅游城市成长能力的影响是负向的,符合本文提出的成长空间“量的有限性”的观点,也符合可持续发展的理念,本文认为在提高发展质量的前提下,以较高的发展水平稳态增长,是旅游城市更为科学合理的发展思路。
第五,旅游城市发展指数说明旅游城市系统内部以及旅游城市系统与旅游者耦合发展的程度,本文以旅游发展与城市支持之间的相互关系作为划分依据,将旅游城市的演化分为优质耦合、中级耦合、勉强耦合、耦合复兴(或衰退)等阶段。从耦合模式来看,可分为协调模式、旅游滞后模式、城市滞后模式等,并对国内城市进行了分析。耦合模式的探讨则有助于城市把握发展的方向,尤其是便于发现自身的短板,以指导旅游城市发展战略的制定与实施。本文最后对北京及15个世界一流旅游城市进行比较分析,并提出了未来发展的对策建议。
本文建立以耦合成长为导向的研究框架,通过国内外城市数据的实证研究,验证了旅游城市成长评价的理论框架和各维度之间的作用机理,丰富了旅游城市理论和成长理论,为旅游城市成长力的培育,为城市规划、管理和营销提供了契合度较高的操作框架。
Abstract:In the post-industrial era, against the background of internetization, ecologicalization and amalgamation, tourism cities are faced with open development environment and diversified development demands, which pose new challenges to the traditional development philosophy and strategies of tourism cities. In reality, tourism cities are confronted with dilemmas between supply and demand, between scale and profit, between speed and quality, between government and market, between economic benefit and social and environmental benefit, between homogeny and heterogeneity, and between competition and cooperation. It is a demand both in theory and in practice to explore what tourism cities should develop and how to develop, to evaluate tourism cities' development level and capacity, and to guide the development direction.
This paper starts with the discussion of tourism cities' growth subjects, growth momentum and growth features, and uses the Coupling Theory to study the interaction among tourism cities' development subjects, thus explaining the mutual promotion and constraint relationship in the coupling development of tourist industry and city; secondly, based on the coupling mechanism of tourism cities, this paper builds a theory model of tourism cities' growth capacity from four perceives:growth foundation, growth strength, growth environment and growth effect, and constructs corresponding index system from five first-class index of tourist attractiveness, tourist development capacity, city support, tourists' satisfaction and internet popularity; thirdly, by using the structural equation model, this paper conducts empirical studies on45cities with developed tourist industry across the world, and on the bases of verifying the connection among variables, this paper proves and applies the structural equation model; fourthly, by using standard deviation, Theil coefficient, etc, this paper analyzes the growth differences among tourism cities in four areas including Asia Pacific, Europe, America, and East Asia and Africa, and discusses their development phases and growth models; finally, focusing on Beijing, the paper uses structural model and data to compare it with15first-class comprehensive tourist metropolises in the world, and comes up with growth path and suggestions based on its constraints in development.
The conclusions of this research include:
Firstly, the growth of a tourism city is a four dimensional system of growth subject, growth resources, growth environment and growth space. Compared with destination competitiveness, the growth of a tourism city emphasizes more on the connection and interaction of all elements in the system, which demonstrates the advantage of the coupling development of tourism and city;
Secondly, the growth space of a tourism city can be the city's physical space, and the stereoscopic space, internet space and information space that connect the tourists generating region and destination, but also can be understood as the distance between current status and future target. The multiple dimensions and the limitedness of the growth space make it key in a tourism city's sustainable development to seek for quality growth, instead of speed and benefit.
Thirdly, the growth of a tourism city is not only demonstrated in the independent development of the subjects including tourist industry, city, and tourists, but more importantly in the coupling development of the tourism city system and tourists, and of the tourist industry and the city. The interaction between tourist industry and the city will vary with the changes in time, place and demands, which further decide the development phase and model of the tourism city.
Fourthly, this paper proves the connections among tourist attractiveness, development capacity, tourists'satisfaction, the city's support and internet popularity, and further proves the relationship between these indicators and tourism city's development strength (development index in short). The results show that tourist attractiveness, development capacity, and tourists'satisfaction have direct influence on the development index, and the city's support and internet popularity have indirect influence.
Fifthly, the paper verifies that the regional difference is the main reason that affects overall difference. The development is relatively balanced in American and European areas; whereas the differences are huge in Asia Pacific, and East Asia and Africa areas.
Finally, the development index shows the coupling development of tourism city system and tourists. Based on this, this paper divides the evolution of tourism cities into phases including quality coupling, intermediate coupling, passable coupling, and coupling reviving (or declining), etc. In terms of coupling model, it can be categorized into coordinate model, lagging tourism model and lagging city model,etc.
On the basis of the research framework of coupling development, through empirical data studies of foreign and domestic tourism cities, this paper verifies the theory framework of tourism cities'growth evaluation and the interaction among those dimensions, enriches the theory of tourism cities and theory of development, and provides operation framework for city planning, management and marketing.
引文
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