双标准的水库防洪预报调度方式研究及其应用
|
摘要
水库作为重要的防洪工程措施,在洪水资源化方面发挥了重要的作用。实践证明,科学的水库防洪调度设计是安全经济建设水库与实时调度发挥设计效益的关键。不考虑预报设计的调度方式往往贻误泄流或蓄水时机,增加防洪风险或造成洪水资源的浪费。为了增加洪水资源可利用量、充分发挥水库防洪兴利综合效益,近20年我国在已建水库除研究了汛限水位动态控制理论与方法外,重视研究防洪预报调度方式,如考虑洪水预报或二级降雨预报信息的预报调度的方式,分类防洪预报调度方式等。但是这些方法没有考虑水库设计洪水特性及水库的调节能力,仅仅考虑洪水预报精度及其风险,因此深入研究与完善预报调度方式设计理论与方法,既是充分挖掘水库防洪、兴利综合效益潜力的要求,也是水库防洪调度理论研究自身发展的必然趋势。本文将最大熵原理、信息熵、随机模拟技术、模糊优选模型等理论融合入水库防洪预报调度方式的设计理论与方法中,系统研究了洪水预报误差特性、双标准的水库防洪预报调度方式设计方法及风险分析和双标准预报调度规则的水库实时调度方案优选方法。主要研究内容和成果如下：
(1)针对目前洪水预报误差分布规律研究较少和观点不一的问题,本文建立了洪水预报误差分布的最大熵模型,分析了我国湿润和半湿润地区九座水库的洪水预报误差,初步总结出我国湿润和半湿润地区的洪水预报误差近似服从正态分布。
(2)为了将预报方案安全、经济的用于防洪预报调度之中,本文提出了洪水预报误差域、水库防洪预报调度可承受误差域及其可靠度的概念和数值求解方法,并以桓仁水库和白龟山水库为例进行了计算,总结出可承受误差域及其可靠度的基本特性,并为制定双标准预报调度规则奠定了基础。
(3)目前水库实施预报调度规则设计的基本条件是洪水预报方案精度要达到规范的标准,尚未考虑水库设计洪水、调节特性及其上下游防洪能力的安全约束,缺乏水库安全调度的可靠度标准的问题,为此本文提出“预报方案的规范评定等级和水库可承受误差域的可靠度”双标准设计水库防洪预报调度规则的新方法。结合桓仁水库和白龟山水库的实例探讨了此方法的可行性。
(4)针对已有的防洪预报调度方式风险分析考虑风险因素较少的问题,提出了水库防洪预报调度方式的综合风险分析模型。重点分析了水文、水力、水位-库容关系和调度滞时4种不确定性因素产生的原因及其概率分布,建立了基于蒙特卡洛随机模拟的水库防洪预报调度方式综合风险分析模型,此模型适用于单因素和多因素共同影响下的风险分析体系。并以桓仁水库和白龟山水库为例,计算了单一标准和双标准预报调度方式的风险率。结果表明,水文不确定性在大多数情况下是最主要的风险源,并且双标准预报调度方式比常规调度方式、单一标准预报调度方式对水库及其下游更为安全。
(5)为了将双标准预报调度规则研究成果与防洪调度系统实时调度相匹配,本文提出了基于双标准预报调度规则的水库实时调度方案优选方法。在此方法中,双标准预报调度规则作为第一可行调度方案,交互生成其它方案,选取水库调洪最高水位、下游最大组合流量、发电量、弃水量和调洪末水位作为优选指标,采用改进的熵权法、二元对比法和基于博弈论的组合赋权法确定指标权重,并使用多层多目标模糊优选模型优选满意调度方案。同时设计了基于双标准预报调度规则的人机交互实时调度方案优选决策支持系统,可方便快捷的优选实时调度方案。
最后对全文作以总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
Reservoirs as an important flood control structural measure play an important role in flood resources utilization. It has been found that the scientific design of reservoir flood control operation is the key to construct reservoirs safely and economically and play designing benefit in real-time operation. Reservoir flood control operation mode without forecast information always delays the opportunity to release or impound, increases flood risk and wastes flood resources. To increase flood resource volumes and improve flood control and utilizable benefits, the flood control forecast operation mode is studied in the past two decades except the theory and method of dynamic control of the limited water level, which involves forecast operation mode based on flood forecasting or two-stage rainfall forecasting and classified forecast operation mode etc. While the absence of considering characteristics of design flood hydrographs and regulate performance of reservoirs, these methods only consider the flood forecast accuracy and risk. So the research and supplement of the theory and method of the forecast operation mode is not only the demand for flood control and beniefit, but also the development trend of the reservoir flood control operation theory. In this dissertation, the methods including the principle of maximum entropy, information entropy, stochastic simulation technique and fuzzy optimization model etc. are employed into the theory and method of the reservoir flood control forecast operation mode. The characteristics of flood forecast errors, designing method and risk analysis of double standard flood control forecast operation mode and a real-time operation optimization model based on double standard flood control forecast operation rule are studied. The main researches and results are as follows:
(1) At present, researches on the distribution of flood forecast error are very few and inconsistent views. The flood forecast error distribution model based on the principle of maximum entropy is established, and the flood forecast errors of nine reservoirs in humid and sub-humid regions are analyzed by proposed model. The results show that the flood forecast error obeys the normal distribution approximately in humid and semi-humid regions.
(2) To employ flood forecast in flood control forecast operation safely and economically, this dissertation puts forward the definitions and numerical solutions of the flood forecast error domain, the reservoir flood control forecast operation acceptable error domain and its reliability. Taking Huanren and Baiguishan reservoirs as examples, the general rules of the reservoir flood control forecast operation acceptable error domain and its reliability are summarized which are the foundations for the design of the double standard flood control forecast operation rule.
(3) The basic condition of designing the flood control forecast operation rule is the forecast accuracy achieving the published standard according to the "Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting SL250-2000". That is single standard method, which cannot consider the design flood hydrographs and the regulating characteristics of the reservoir and the security constraints of the upstream and downstream flood control capacities. Moreover, this method lacks the reliability standard of the safe flood control operation. Therefore, the double standard flood control forecast operation rule is employed by combining the forecast accuracy and the reliability of the acceptable error domain. This method is proved to be feasible by two examples of Huanren and Baiguishan reservoirs.
(4) The problem of existing risk analysis on flood control forecast operation mode is that they consider a few of risk factors. So, this dissertation proposes integrated risk analysis model of flood control forecast operation mode. Causes and probability distributions of four uncertainties including hydrological uncertainty, hydraulic uncertainty, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty are analyzed. And integrated risk analysis model of flood control forecast operation mode is presented based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation theory, and this model is appropriate to single and combined factors. Taking Huanren and Baiguishan reservoirs as examples, risk rates of single and double standard flood control forecast operation modes are calculated. The results show that hydrological uncertainty is mainly risk source in most cases, and the double standard forecast operation mode is safe to reservoirs and their lower reaches than conventional operation mode and the single standard flood forecast operation mode.
(5) In order to combine the double standard forecast operation rule and real-time flood control operation system, a real-time operation optimization model based on double standard flood control forecast operation rule is established. In this model, the double standard forecast operation rule regards as the first feasible operation scheme, and other schemes are establish by human-computer interaction. The highest water level, peak discharge, generating capacity, waste water volume and terminal water level are selected as indices, and modified entropy method, method of two elements contrasting and combination weighting approach based on game theory are adopted to calculate weight. In the end, fuzzy optimization model is introduced to optimize schemes. At the same time, decision support system of a real-time operation optimization model based on double standard flood control forecast operation rule is proposed. This decision support system could optimize schemes quickly.
Lastly, the conclusions and problems need to be further studied are given at the end of the dissertation.
(1)针对目前洪水预报误差分布规律研究较少和观点不一的问题,本文建立了洪水预报误差分布的最大熵模型,分析了我国湿润和半湿润地区九座水库的洪水预报误差,初步总结出我国湿润和半湿润地区的洪水预报误差近似服从正态分布。
(2)为了将预报方案安全、经济的用于防洪预报调度之中,本文提出了洪水预报误差域、水库防洪预报调度可承受误差域及其可靠度的概念和数值求解方法,并以桓仁水库和白龟山水库为例进行了计算,总结出可承受误差域及其可靠度的基本特性,并为制定双标准预报调度规则奠定了基础。
(3)目前水库实施预报调度规则设计的基本条件是洪水预报方案精度要达到规范的标准,尚未考虑水库设计洪水、调节特性及其上下游防洪能力的安全约束,缺乏水库安全调度的可靠度标准的问题,为此本文提出“预报方案的规范评定等级和水库可承受误差域的可靠度”双标准设计水库防洪预报调度规则的新方法。结合桓仁水库和白龟山水库的实例探讨了此方法的可行性。
(4)针对已有的防洪预报调度方式风险分析考虑风险因素较少的问题,提出了水库防洪预报调度方式的综合风险分析模型。重点分析了水文、水力、水位-库容关系和调度滞时4种不确定性因素产生的原因及其概率分布,建立了基于蒙特卡洛随机模拟的水库防洪预报调度方式综合风险分析模型,此模型适用于单因素和多因素共同影响下的风险分析体系。并以桓仁水库和白龟山水库为例,计算了单一标准和双标准预报调度方式的风险率。结果表明,水文不确定性在大多数情况下是最主要的风险源,并且双标准预报调度方式比常规调度方式、单一标准预报调度方式对水库及其下游更为安全。
(5)为了将双标准预报调度规则研究成果与防洪调度系统实时调度相匹配,本文提出了基于双标准预报调度规则的水库实时调度方案优选方法。在此方法中,双标准预报调度规则作为第一可行调度方案,交互生成其它方案,选取水库调洪最高水位、下游最大组合流量、发电量、弃水量和调洪末水位作为优选指标,采用改进的熵权法、二元对比法和基于博弈论的组合赋权法确定指标权重,并使用多层多目标模糊优选模型优选满意调度方案。同时设计了基于双标准预报调度规则的人机交互实时调度方案优选决策支持系统,可方便快捷的优选实时调度方案。
最后对全文作以总结,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行了展望。
Reservoirs as an important flood control structural measure play an important role in flood resources utilization. It has been found that the scientific design of reservoir flood control operation is the key to construct reservoirs safely and economically and play designing benefit in real-time operation. Reservoir flood control operation mode without forecast information always delays the opportunity to release or impound, increases flood risk and wastes flood resources. To increase flood resource volumes and improve flood control and utilizable benefits, the flood control forecast operation mode is studied in the past two decades except the theory and method of dynamic control of the limited water level, which involves forecast operation mode based on flood forecasting or two-stage rainfall forecasting and classified forecast operation mode etc. While the absence of considering characteristics of design flood hydrographs and regulate performance of reservoirs, these methods only consider the flood forecast accuracy and risk. So the research and supplement of the theory and method of the forecast operation mode is not only the demand for flood control and beniefit, but also the development trend of the reservoir flood control operation theory. In this dissertation, the methods including the principle of maximum entropy, information entropy, stochastic simulation technique and fuzzy optimization model etc. are employed into the theory and method of the reservoir flood control forecast operation mode. The characteristics of flood forecast errors, designing method and risk analysis of double standard flood control forecast operation mode and a real-time operation optimization model based on double standard flood control forecast operation rule are studied. The main researches and results are as follows:
(1) At present, researches on the distribution of flood forecast error are very few and inconsistent views. The flood forecast error distribution model based on the principle of maximum entropy is established, and the flood forecast errors of nine reservoirs in humid and sub-humid regions are analyzed by proposed model. The results show that the flood forecast error obeys the normal distribution approximately in humid and semi-humid regions.
(2) To employ flood forecast in flood control forecast operation safely and economically, this dissertation puts forward the definitions and numerical solutions of the flood forecast error domain, the reservoir flood control forecast operation acceptable error domain and its reliability. Taking Huanren and Baiguishan reservoirs as examples, the general rules of the reservoir flood control forecast operation acceptable error domain and its reliability are summarized which are the foundations for the design of the double standard flood control forecast operation rule.
(3) The basic condition of designing the flood control forecast operation rule is the forecast accuracy achieving the published standard according to the "Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting SL250-2000". That is single standard method, which cannot consider the design flood hydrographs and the regulating characteristics of the reservoir and the security constraints of the upstream and downstream flood control capacities. Moreover, this method lacks the reliability standard of the safe flood control operation. Therefore, the double standard flood control forecast operation rule is employed by combining the forecast accuracy and the reliability of the acceptable error domain. This method is proved to be feasible by two examples of Huanren and Baiguishan reservoirs.
(4) The problem of existing risk analysis on flood control forecast operation mode is that they consider a few of risk factors. So, this dissertation proposes integrated risk analysis model of flood control forecast operation mode. Causes and probability distributions of four uncertainties including hydrological uncertainty, hydraulic uncertainty, stage-storage uncertainty and time-delay uncertainty are analyzed. And integrated risk analysis model of flood control forecast operation mode is presented based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation theory, and this model is appropriate to single and combined factors. Taking Huanren and Baiguishan reservoirs as examples, risk rates of single and double standard flood control forecast operation modes are calculated. The results show that hydrological uncertainty is mainly risk source in most cases, and the double standard forecast operation mode is safe to reservoirs and their lower reaches than conventional operation mode and the single standard flood forecast operation mode.
(5) In order to combine the double standard forecast operation rule and real-time flood control operation system, a real-time operation optimization model based on double standard flood control forecast operation rule is established. In this model, the double standard forecast operation rule regards as the first feasible operation scheme, and other schemes are establish by human-computer interaction. The highest water level, peak discharge, generating capacity, waste water volume and terminal water level are selected as indices, and modified entropy method, method of two elements contrasting and combination weighting approach based on game theory are adopted to calculate weight. In the end, fuzzy optimization model is introduced to optimize schemes. At the same time, decision support system of a real-time operation optimization model based on double standard flood control forecast operation rule is proposed. This decision support system could optimize schemes quickly.
Lastly, the conclusions and problems need to be further studied are given at the end of the dissertation.
引文
[1]王烨,朱琨.我国水资源现状与可持续利用方略.兰州交通大学学报[J].2005,24(5)：77-80.
[2]王浩.我国水资源合理配置的现状和未来.水利水电技术[J].2006,37(2)：7-14.
[3]吴庆洲.对20世纪中国洪灾的回顾.灾害学[J].2002,17(2)：62-69.
[4]张文渊.浅谈中国的干旱灾害及抗旱减灾对策.中国减灾[J].2003(1)：47-49.
[5]成福云.干旱灾害对21世纪初我国农业发展的影响探讨.水利发展研究[J].2002,2(10)：31-33.
[6]大连理工大学,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室.水库防洪预报调度方法及应用[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,1996.
[7]尹雄锐,夏军,张翔,等.水文模拟与预测中的不确定性研究现状与展望.水力发电[J].2006,32(10)：27-31.
[8]芮孝芳,朱庆平.分布式流域水文模型研究中的几个问题.水利水电科技进展[J].2002,22(3)：56-58.
[9]刘冀.基于不确定分析的径流组合预报方法及其应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008.
[10]左保河.实时洪水预报过程中的误差分布特性研究.华北水利水电学院学报[J].1997,18(2)：41-46.
[11]徐玉英,王本德.水库洪水预报子系统的风险分析.水文[J].2001,21(2)：1-4.
[12]李致家,菅瑞卿,薛清敏,等.洪水预报误差置信限与误差评定方法研究.河海大学学报：自然科学版[J].2005,33(1)：32-36.
[13]大连理工大学土木水利学院.洪水预报及降雨预报信息可利用可能性研究.水利部重大科技项目《水库设计运用专题研究》专题4研究报告之一[R].大连：大连理工大学土木水利学院,2004.
[14]闫骏霞.水库洪水调度峰量控制类型与碧流河水库防洪预报调度规则研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2005.
[15]曹永强.汛限水位动态控制方法研究及其风险分析[D].大连：大连理工大学,2003.
[16]董四辉.水库防洪预报调度及灾情评价理论研究与应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2005.
[17]周惠成,董四辉,王本德,等.水库群联合防洪预报调度方式及汛限水位研究.大连理工大学学报[J].2006,46(3)：401-406.
[18]张改红.基于防洪预报调度的水库汛限水位设计与控制研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2007.
[19]侯召成.水库防洪预报调度模糊集与风险分析理论研究与应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2004.
[20]王本德,张静.水库防洪分类调度方式设计探讨.水力发电学报[J].2008,27(5)：16-22.
[21]王本德,张静.考虑暴雨成因的大伙房水库洪水分类研究.水文[J].2008,28(1)：15-20.
[22]张静.水库防洪分类预报调度方式研究及风险分析[D].大连：大连理工大学,2007.
[23]翟丽妮,梅亚东,李娜,等.水库生态与健康调度研究综述.人民长江[J].2007,38(8)：56-60.
[24]蔡其华.从维护健康长江谈水库调度.水电论坛[J].2005(6)：78-82.
[25]倪深海.半湿润地区水生态环境恢复研究[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[26]蔡其华.充分考虑河流生态系统保护因素,完善水库调度方式.中国水利[J].2006(2)：14-17.
[27]范继辉.梯级水库群调度模拟及其对河流生态环境的影响[D].北京：中国科学院研究生院,2007.
[28]宋续美.考虑人类活动影响及河道过流能力不确定性的洪水预报及调度研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008.
[29]刘涛,邵东国.水资源系统风险评估方法研究.武汉大学学报(工学版)[J].2005,38(6)：66-71.
[30]德克斯坦L,勃兰特E J.水资源工程可靠性与风险(吴媚玲,王俊德译)[M].北京：水利水电出版社,1993.
[31]王丽萍,傅湘.洪灾风险及经济分析[M].武汉：武汉水利电力大学出版社,1999.
[32]姜树海,范子武.水库防洪预报调度的风险分析.水利学报[J].2004(11)：102-107.
[33]周惠成,闫骏霞,王本德.洪水预报误差对防洪预报调度的影响.东北水利水电[J].2005,23(9)：30-33.
[34]周惠成,董四辉,邓成林,等.基于随机水文过程的防洪调度风险分析.水利学报[J].2006,37(2)：227-232.
[35]董四辉,周戎,周惠成.防洪预报调度方式下水库下游防洪风险分析—以葠窝水库为例.安全与环境学报[J].2006,6(2)：128-131.
[36]刘艳丽.径流预报模型不确定性研究及水库防洪风险分析[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008.
[37]王本德,张静.基于随机模拟的分类预报调度方式风险分析.水力发电学报[J].2009,28(2)：8-13.
[38]王本德,周惠成,王国利.水库汛限水位动态控制理论与方法及其应用.北京：中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[39]冯端,冯步云.熵[M].北京：科学出版社,1992.
[40]王栋.熵及其在水系统中的研究与应用[D].南京：河海大学,2001.
[41]程守洙,江之永.普通物理学(第五版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1998.
[42]汪志庆.热力学与统计物理(第三版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1996.
[43]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京：机械工业出版杜,2002.
[44]Jaynes E T. Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics. Physical Review[J].1957, 106 (4):620-630.
[45]朱坚民.测量不确定度的非统计评定理论与方法[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2001.4.
[46]吴泽宁,胡彩虹,王宝玉,等.黄河中下游水库汛限水位与防洪体系风险分析.水利学报[J].2006,37(6)：641-648.
[47]李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,等.应用最大熵原理分析水利工程经济效益的风险.水科学进展[J].2003,14(5)：626-630.
[48]希德尔J N.工程概率设计一原理及应用[M].北京：北京科学出版社,1989.
[49]国力电力发展股份有限公司桓仁发电厂.浑江流域梯级水库调度工作手册[M].辽宁省,2005.8.
[50]李丽琴.熵与模糊集理论在洪水预报及水库调度中的应用研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2006.
[51]大连理工大学,国电电力发展股份有限公式桓仁发电厂.桓仁发电厂汛限水位动态控制方法研究[R].大连：大连理工大学土木水利学院,2005.
[52]大连理工大学,河南省水利勘测设计院,河南省白龟山水库管理局.河南省白龟山水库汛限水位设计与运行研究报告[R].大连：大连理工大学土木水利学院,2004.
[53]Jiang S. Application of stochastic differential equations in risk assessment for flood releases. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques[J].1998, 43(3):349-360.
[54]Chauhan S, Bowles D. Dam safety risk assessment with uncertainty analysis. ANCOLD BULLETIN[J].2004,73-88.
[55]Su H, Wen Z, Hu J, et al. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability. Science in China Series E:Technological Sciences[J].2009,52(7): 1966-1973.
[56]Kwon H, Moon Y. Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment [J]. 2006,20(4):223-237.
[57]Kuo J, Yen B, Hsu Y, et al. Risk Analysis for Dam Overtopping-Feitsui Reservoir as a Case Study. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering[J].2007(133):955-963.
[58]储祥元.水力不确定模型研究.水利学报[J].1992(5)：33-38.
[59]金明.水力不确定性及其在防洪泄洪系统风险分析中的影响.河海大学学报[J].1991,19(1)：40-45.
[60]谢崇宝,袁宏源.水库防洪全面风险率模型研究.武汉水利电力大学学报[J].1997,30(2)：71-74.
[61]梅亚东,谈广鸣.大坝防洪安全的风险分析.武汉大学学报(工学版)[J].2002,35(6)：11-15.
[62]徐祖信,郭子中.开敞式溢洪道泄洪风险计算.水利学报[J].1989(4)：50-54.
[63]徐祖信.混凝土大坝泄洪风险的分析计算.水动力学研究与进展：A辑[J].1991(A12)：82-88.
[64]孙颖,黄文杰.漫坝风险分析在水库运行管理中的应用.水利学报[J].2005,36(10)：1153-1157.
[65]贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津：天津科学技术出版社,1983.
[66]Hashimoto T, Stedinger J, Loucks D. Reliability, Resiliency, and Vulnerability Criteria for Water Resource System Performance Evaluation. Water Resources Research[J]. 1982,18(1):14-20.
[67]Simonovic S, Venema H, Burn D. Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation. Journal of Hydrology[J].1992(131):269-291.
[68]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展.管理科学学报[J].2004,7(2)：69-79.
[69]顾基发.评价方法综述[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1990.
[70]Charnes A, Cooper W, Rhodes E. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European journal of operational research[J].1978,2(6):429-444.
[71]Cooper W, Tone K. Measures of inefficiency in data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier estimation. European journal of operational research [J].1997,99(1):72-88.
[72]王军霞,官建成.复合DEA方法在测度企业知识管理绩效中的应用.科学学研究[J].2002,20(1)：84-88.
[73]Savoy J. Statistical inference in retrieval effectiveness evaluation. Information Processing and Management[J].1997,33(4):495-512.
[74]何晓群.现代统计分析方法与应用[M].北京：人民大学出版社,1998.
[75]Saaty T L. Fundamentals of decision making and priority theory with the analytic hierarchy process[M]. Princeton:RWS publication, Pittsburg,1994.
[76]Schenkerman S. Avoiding rank reversal in AHP decision-support models. European journal of operational research[J].1994,74(3):407-419.
[77]Wallmark J T, Sedig K G. Quality of research measured by citation method and by peer review-a comparison. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management[J].1986,33(4): 218-222.
[78]Carrettoni F, Castano S, Martella G, et al. RETISS:a real time security system for threat detection usingfuzzy logic. Proceedings of 25th IEEE International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology[C],1991:161-167.
[79]Dimitras A, Slowinski R, Susmaga R, et al. Business failure prediction using rough sets. European journal of operational research[J].1999,114(2):263-280.
[80]陈国宏.R&D项目中止决策的Fuzzy模式识别.科学学研究[J].1998,16(1)：68-74.
[81]陈守煜.工程模糊集理论与应用[M].国防工业出版社,1998.
[82]Grabowski M, Wallace W A. An expert system for maritime pilots:its design and assessment using gaming. Management Science[J].1993,3(12):1506-1520.
[83]Levine P, Pomerol J C. PRIAM an interactive method for choosing among multiple attribute alternatives. European journal of operational research [J].1986,25(2):272-280.
[84]Booker L, Goldberg D, Holland J. Classifier systems and genetic algorithms. Artificial Intelligence [J].1989,40(1-3):235-282.
[85]Schierholt K, Dagli C. Stock market prediction using different neural networkclassification architectures. IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering[C],1996:72-78.
[86]陈守煜,赵瑛琪.系统层次分析模糊优选模型.水利学报[J].1988(10)：1-10.
[87]陈守煜.多阶段多目标决策系统模糊优选理论及其应用.水利学报[J].1990(1)：1-10.
[88]陈守煜,赵瑛琪.模糊优选理论与模型.模糊系统与数学[J].1990,4(2)：87-91.
[89]陈守煜,周惠成.多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化决策理论与模型.水电能源科学[J].1991,9(1)： 9-17.
[90]王本德,周惠成.梯级水库群防洪系统的多目标洪水调度决策的模糊优选.水利学报[J].1994(2)：31-39.
[91]李登峰,陈守煜.时序多目标决策的模糊优选法.系统工程与电子技术[J].1994,16(3)：12-18.
[92]程春田,王本德,陈守煜.水库防洪调度的协商模型.水电能源科学[J].1994,12(3)：152-159.
[93]程春田,陈守煜,王本德.一类具有冲突的有限方案多人多目标决策模型及其应用.控制与决策[J].1995,10(4)：369-372.
[94]程春田,李登峰.水库防洪调度模糊迭代方法及应用.水利学报[J].1999(8)：16-20.
[95]陈守煜.防洪调度多目标决策理论与模型.中国工程科学[J].2000,2(2)：47-52.
[96]陈守煜.防洪调度系统半结构性决策理论与方法.水利学报[J].2001(11)：26-33.
[97]陈守煜,王建明.决策信息不完全确知的模糊决策集成模型.控制与决策[J].2002,17(6)：847-851.
[98]王本德,许海军.水库防洪实时调度决策模糊推理神经网络模型及其应用.水文[J].2003,23(6)：8-11.
[99]王本德,于义彬,刘金禄,等.水库洪水调度系统的模糊循环迭代模型及应用.水科学进展[J].2004,15(2)：233-237.
[100]侯召成,陈守煜.水库防洪调度多目标模糊群决策方法.水利学报[J].2004(12)：106-111.
[101]刘金禄,陈守煜.模糊优选保序条件及其在防洪调度中应用.大连理工大学学报[J].2004,44(4)：571-574.
[102]陈守煜,王子茹.可变模糊优选理论及在水电站联合调度方案优选中的应用.水电自动化与大坝监测[J].2006,30(6)：16-20.
[103]Satty T. The analytic hierarchy process[M]. New York,1980.
[104]Rossman L. Discussion of a Nonlinear Programming Algorithm for Real-Time Hourly Reservoir Operations by WS Chu and W. WG. Yeh. Water Resources Bulletin[J].1979,15(4).
[105]Vansnick J. On the problem of weights in multiple criteria decision making-The noncompensatory approach. European Journal of Operational Research[J].1986(24): 288-294.
[106]镇常青.多目标决策中的权重调查确定方法.系统工程理论与实践[J].1987,4(2)：16-24.
[107]程明熙.处理多目标决策问题的二项系数加权和法.系统工程理论与实践[J].1983,3(4)：23-26.
[108]王应明,傅国伟.主成份分析在有限方案多目标决策中的应用.系统工程理论方法应用[J].1993,2(2)：42-48.
[109]宣家骥.多目标决策[M].湖南：湖南科学技术出版社,1989.
[110]王明涛.多指标综合评价中权数确定的离差,均方差决策方法.中国软科学[J].1999(8)：100-101.
[111]郭显光.多指标综合评价中权数的确定.数量经济技术与研究[J].1989(11)：49-52.
[112]吴坚,梁昌勇,李文年.基于主观与客观集成的属性权重求解方法.系统工程与电子技术[J].2007,29(3)：383-387.
[113]万星火,邢桂荣.综合评价中权数确定的优化探讨.中国卫生统计[J].1996,13(6)：28-30.
[114]樊治平,潘德惠.多属性决策的一种主客观综合法.系统工程[J].1995,13(5)：28-31.
[115]毛红保,张凤鸣,冯卉,等.一种基于区间估计的多属性决策组合赋权方法.系统工程理论与实践[J].2007,27(6)：86-92.
[116]张成科.基于熵的水质模糊评价模型及应用.系统工程理论与实践[J].1998,18(6)：80-85.
[117]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用.水利学报[J].2008,39(9)：1092-1097.
[118]黄乾,彭世彰,田守岗,等.模糊物元模型在区域水安全评价中的应用.河海大学学报：自然科学版[J].2007,35(4)：379-383.
[119]杨海云,李珍照,常晓林.水电工程项目评标中的熵权决策法及其应用.武汉大学学报：工学版[J].2005,38(2)：44-48.
[120]周惠成,张改红,王国利.基于熵权的水库防洪调度多目标决策方法及应用.水利学报[J].2007,38(1)：100-106.
[121]张吉军.模糊层次分析法(FAHP).模糊系统与数学[J].2000,14(2)：80-88.
[122]陈加良.基于博弈论的组合赋权评价方法研究.福建电脑[J].2003(9)：15-16.
[123]李慧伶,王修贵,崔远来,等.灌区运行状况综合评价的方法研究.水科学进展[J].2006,17(4)：543-548.
[124]林元庆,陈加良.方法群评价中权重集化问题的研究.中国管理科学[J].2002(10)：20-23.
[125]彭勇.中长期水文预报与水库群优化调度方法及其系统集成研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2007.
[2]王浩.我国水资源合理配置的现状和未来.水利水电技术[J].2006,37(2)：7-14.
[3]吴庆洲.对20世纪中国洪灾的回顾.灾害学[J].2002,17(2)：62-69.
[4]张文渊.浅谈中国的干旱灾害及抗旱减灾对策.中国减灾[J].2003(1)：47-49.
[5]成福云.干旱灾害对21世纪初我国农业发展的影响探讨.水利发展研究[J].2002,2(10)：31-33.
[6]大连理工大学,国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室.水库防洪预报调度方法及应用[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,1996.
[7]尹雄锐,夏军,张翔,等.水文模拟与预测中的不确定性研究现状与展望.水力发电[J].2006,32(10)：27-31.
[8]芮孝芳,朱庆平.分布式流域水文模型研究中的几个问题.水利水电科技进展[J].2002,22(3)：56-58.
[9]刘冀.基于不确定分析的径流组合预报方法及其应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008.
[10]左保河.实时洪水预报过程中的误差分布特性研究.华北水利水电学院学报[J].1997,18(2)：41-46.
[11]徐玉英,王本德.水库洪水预报子系统的风险分析.水文[J].2001,21(2)：1-4.
[12]李致家,菅瑞卿,薛清敏,等.洪水预报误差置信限与误差评定方法研究.河海大学学报：自然科学版[J].2005,33(1)：32-36.
[13]大连理工大学土木水利学院.洪水预报及降雨预报信息可利用可能性研究.水利部重大科技项目《水库设计运用专题研究》专题4研究报告之一[R].大连：大连理工大学土木水利学院,2004.
[14]闫骏霞.水库洪水调度峰量控制类型与碧流河水库防洪预报调度规则研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2005.
[15]曹永强.汛限水位动态控制方法研究及其风险分析[D].大连：大连理工大学,2003.
[16]董四辉.水库防洪预报调度及灾情评价理论研究与应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2005.
[17]周惠成,董四辉,王本德,等.水库群联合防洪预报调度方式及汛限水位研究.大连理工大学学报[J].2006,46(3)：401-406.
[18]张改红.基于防洪预报调度的水库汛限水位设计与控制研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2007.
[19]侯召成.水库防洪预报调度模糊集与风险分析理论研究与应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2004.
[20]王本德,张静.水库防洪分类调度方式设计探讨.水力发电学报[J].2008,27(5)：16-22.
[21]王本德,张静.考虑暴雨成因的大伙房水库洪水分类研究.水文[J].2008,28(1)：15-20.
[22]张静.水库防洪分类预报调度方式研究及风险分析[D].大连：大连理工大学,2007.
[23]翟丽妮,梅亚东,李娜,等.水库生态与健康调度研究综述.人民长江[J].2007,38(8)：56-60.
[24]蔡其华.从维护健康长江谈水库调度.水电论坛[J].2005(6)：78-82.
[25]倪深海.半湿润地区水生态环境恢复研究[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[26]蔡其华.充分考虑河流生态系统保护因素,完善水库调度方式.中国水利[J].2006(2)：14-17.
[27]范继辉.梯级水库群调度模拟及其对河流生态环境的影响[D].北京：中国科学院研究生院,2007.
[28]宋续美.考虑人类活动影响及河道过流能力不确定性的洪水预报及调度研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008.
[29]刘涛,邵东国.水资源系统风险评估方法研究.武汉大学学报(工学版)[J].2005,38(6)：66-71.
[30]德克斯坦L,勃兰特E J.水资源工程可靠性与风险(吴媚玲,王俊德译)[M].北京：水利水电出版社,1993.
[31]王丽萍,傅湘.洪灾风险及经济分析[M].武汉：武汉水利电力大学出版社,1999.
[32]姜树海,范子武.水库防洪预报调度的风险分析.水利学报[J].2004(11)：102-107.
[33]周惠成,闫骏霞,王本德.洪水预报误差对防洪预报调度的影响.东北水利水电[J].2005,23(9)：30-33.
[34]周惠成,董四辉,邓成林,等.基于随机水文过程的防洪调度风险分析.水利学报[J].2006,37(2)：227-232.
[35]董四辉,周戎,周惠成.防洪预报调度方式下水库下游防洪风险分析—以葠窝水库为例.安全与环境学报[J].2006,6(2)：128-131.
[36]刘艳丽.径流预报模型不确定性研究及水库防洪风险分析[D].大连：大连理工大学,2008.
[37]王本德,张静.基于随机模拟的分类预报调度方式风险分析.水力发电学报[J].2009,28(2)：8-13.
[38]王本德,周惠成,王国利.水库汛限水位动态控制理论与方法及其应用.北京：中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[39]冯端,冯步云.熵[M].北京：科学出版社,1992.
[40]王栋.熵及其在水系统中的研究与应用[D].南京：河海大学,2001.
[41]程守洙,江之永.普通物理学(第五版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1998.
[42]汪志庆.热力学与统计物理(第三版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1996.
[43]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京：机械工业出版杜,2002.
[44]Jaynes E T. Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics. Physical Review[J].1957, 106 (4):620-630.
[45]朱坚民.测量不确定度的非统计评定理论与方法[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2001.4.
[46]吴泽宁,胡彩虹,王宝玉,等.黄河中下游水库汛限水位与防洪体系风险分析.水利学报[J].2006,37(6)：641-648.
[47]李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,等.应用最大熵原理分析水利工程经济效益的风险.水科学进展[J].2003,14(5)：626-630.
[48]希德尔J N.工程概率设计一原理及应用[M].北京：北京科学出版社,1989.
[49]国力电力发展股份有限公司桓仁发电厂.浑江流域梯级水库调度工作手册[M].辽宁省,2005.8.
[50]李丽琴.熵与模糊集理论在洪水预报及水库调度中的应用研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2006.
[51]大连理工大学,国电电力发展股份有限公式桓仁发电厂.桓仁发电厂汛限水位动态控制方法研究[R].大连：大连理工大学土木水利学院,2005.
[52]大连理工大学,河南省水利勘测设计院,河南省白龟山水库管理局.河南省白龟山水库汛限水位设计与运行研究报告[R].大连：大连理工大学土木水利学院,2004.
[53]Jiang S. Application of stochastic differential equations in risk assessment for flood releases. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques[J].1998, 43(3):349-360.
[54]Chauhan S, Bowles D. Dam safety risk assessment with uncertainty analysis. ANCOLD BULLETIN[J].2004,73-88.
[55]Su H, Wen Z, Hu J, et al. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability. Science in China Series E:Technological Sciences[J].2009,52(7): 1966-1973.
[56]Kwon H, Moon Y. Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment [J]. 2006,20(4):223-237.
[57]Kuo J, Yen B, Hsu Y, et al. Risk Analysis for Dam Overtopping-Feitsui Reservoir as a Case Study. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering[J].2007(133):955-963.
[58]储祥元.水力不确定模型研究.水利学报[J].1992(5)：33-38.
[59]金明.水力不确定性及其在防洪泄洪系统风险分析中的影响.河海大学学报[J].1991,19(1)：40-45.
[60]谢崇宝,袁宏源.水库防洪全面风险率模型研究.武汉水利电力大学学报[J].1997,30(2)：71-74.
[61]梅亚东,谈广鸣.大坝防洪安全的风险分析.武汉大学学报(工学版)[J].2002,35(6)：11-15.
[62]徐祖信,郭子中.开敞式溢洪道泄洪风险计算.水利学报[J].1989(4)：50-54.
[63]徐祖信.混凝土大坝泄洪风险的分析计算.水动力学研究与进展：A辑[J].1991(A12)：82-88.
[64]孙颖,黄文杰.漫坝风险分析在水库运行管理中的应用.水利学报[J].2005,36(10)：1153-1157.
[65]贺仲雄.模糊数学及其应用[M].天津：天津科学技术出版社,1983.
[66]Hashimoto T, Stedinger J, Loucks D. Reliability, Resiliency, and Vulnerability Criteria for Water Resource System Performance Evaluation. Water Resources Research[J]. 1982,18(1):14-20.
[67]Simonovic S, Venema H, Burn D. Risk-based parameter selection for short-term reservoir operation. Journal of Hydrology[J].1992(131):269-291.
[68]陈衍泰,陈国宏,李美娟.综合评价方法分类及研究进展.管理科学学报[J].2004,7(2)：69-79.
[69]顾基发.评价方法综述[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,1990.
[70]Charnes A, Cooper W, Rhodes E. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European journal of operational research[J].1978,2(6):429-444.
[71]Cooper W, Tone K. Measures of inefficiency in data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier estimation. European journal of operational research [J].1997,99(1):72-88.
[72]王军霞,官建成.复合DEA方法在测度企业知识管理绩效中的应用.科学学研究[J].2002,20(1)：84-88.
[73]Savoy J. Statistical inference in retrieval effectiveness evaluation. Information Processing and Management[J].1997,33(4):495-512.
[74]何晓群.现代统计分析方法与应用[M].北京：人民大学出版社,1998.
[75]Saaty T L. Fundamentals of decision making and priority theory with the analytic hierarchy process[M]. Princeton:RWS publication, Pittsburg,1994.
[76]Schenkerman S. Avoiding rank reversal in AHP decision-support models. European journal of operational research[J].1994,74(3):407-419.
[77]Wallmark J T, Sedig K G. Quality of research measured by citation method and by peer review-a comparison. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management[J].1986,33(4): 218-222.
[78]Carrettoni F, Castano S, Martella G, et al. RETISS:a real time security system for threat detection usingfuzzy logic. Proceedings of 25th IEEE International Carnahan Conference on Security Technology[C],1991:161-167.
[79]Dimitras A, Slowinski R, Susmaga R, et al. Business failure prediction using rough sets. European journal of operational research[J].1999,114(2):263-280.
[80]陈国宏.R&D项目中止决策的Fuzzy模式识别.科学学研究[J].1998,16(1)：68-74.
[81]陈守煜.工程模糊集理论与应用[M].国防工业出版社,1998.
[82]Grabowski M, Wallace W A. An expert system for maritime pilots:its design and assessment using gaming. Management Science[J].1993,3(12):1506-1520.
[83]Levine P, Pomerol J C. PRIAM an interactive method for choosing among multiple attribute alternatives. European journal of operational research [J].1986,25(2):272-280.
[84]Booker L, Goldberg D, Holland J. Classifier systems and genetic algorithms. Artificial Intelligence [J].1989,40(1-3):235-282.
[85]Schierholt K, Dagli C. Stock market prediction using different neural networkclassification architectures. IEEE/IAFE 1996 Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering[C],1996:72-78.
[86]陈守煜,赵瑛琪.系统层次分析模糊优选模型.水利学报[J].1988(10)：1-10.
[87]陈守煜.多阶段多目标决策系统模糊优选理论及其应用.水利学报[J].1990(1)：1-10.
[88]陈守煜,赵瑛琪.模糊优选理论与模型.模糊系统与数学[J].1990,4(2)：87-91.
[89]陈守煜,周惠成.多阶段多目标系统的模糊优化决策理论与模型.水电能源科学[J].1991,9(1)： 9-17.
[90]王本德,周惠成.梯级水库群防洪系统的多目标洪水调度决策的模糊优选.水利学报[J].1994(2)：31-39.
[91]李登峰,陈守煜.时序多目标决策的模糊优选法.系统工程与电子技术[J].1994,16(3)：12-18.
[92]程春田,王本德,陈守煜.水库防洪调度的协商模型.水电能源科学[J].1994,12(3)：152-159.
[93]程春田,陈守煜,王本德.一类具有冲突的有限方案多人多目标决策模型及其应用.控制与决策[J].1995,10(4)：369-372.
[94]程春田,李登峰.水库防洪调度模糊迭代方法及应用.水利学报[J].1999(8)：16-20.
[95]陈守煜.防洪调度多目标决策理论与模型.中国工程科学[J].2000,2(2)：47-52.
[96]陈守煜.防洪调度系统半结构性决策理论与方法.水利学报[J].2001(11)：26-33.
[97]陈守煜,王建明.决策信息不完全确知的模糊决策集成模型.控制与决策[J].2002,17(6)：847-851.
[98]王本德,许海军.水库防洪实时调度决策模糊推理神经网络模型及其应用.水文[J].2003,23(6)：8-11.
[99]王本德,于义彬,刘金禄,等.水库洪水调度系统的模糊循环迭代模型及应用.水科学进展[J].2004,15(2)：233-237.
[100]侯召成,陈守煜.水库防洪调度多目标模糊群决策方法.水利学报[J].2004(12)：106-111.
[101]刘金禄,陈守煜.模糊优选保序条件及其在防洪调度中应用.大连理工大学学报[J].2004,44(4)：571-574.
[102]陈守煜,王子茹.可变模糊优选理论及在水电站联合调度方案优选中的应用.水电自动化与大坝监测[J].2006,30(6)：16-20.
[103]Satty T. The analytic hierarchy process[M]. New York,1980.
[104]Rossman L. Discussion of a Nonlinear Programming Algorithm for Real-Time Hourly Reservoir Operations by WS Chu and W. WG. Yeh. Water Resources Bulletin[J].1979,15(4).
[105]Vansnick J. On the problem of weights in multiple criteria decision making-The noncompensatory approach. European Journal of Operational Research[J].1986(24): 288-294.
[106]镇常青.多目标决策中的权重调查确定方法.系统工程理论与实践[J].1987,4(2)：16-24.
[107]程明熙.处理多目标决策问题的二项系数加权和法.系统工程理论与实践[J].1983,3(4)：23-26.
[108]王应明,傅国伟.主成份分析在有限方案多目标决策中的应用.系统工程理论方法应用[J].1993,2(2)：42-48.
[109]宣家骥.多目标决策[M].湖南：湖南科学技术出版社,1989.
[110]王明涛.多指标综合评价中权数确定的离差,均方差决策方法.中国软科学[J].1999(8)：100-101.
[111]郭显光.多指标综合评价中权数的确定.数量经济技术与研究[J].1989(11)：49-52.
[112]吴坚,梁昌勇,李文年.基于主观与客观集成的属性权重求解方法.系统工程与电子技术[J].2007,29(3)：383-387.
[113]万星火,邢桂荣.综合评价中权数确定的优化探讨.中国卫生统计[J].1996,13(6)：28-30.
[114]樊治平,潘德惠.多属性决策的一种主客观综合法.系统工程[J].1995,13(5)：28-31.
[115]毛红保,张凤鸣,冯卉,等.一种基于区间估计的多属性决策组合赋权方法.系统工程理论与实践[J].2007,27(6)：86-92.
[116]张成科.基于熵的水质模糊评价模型及应用.系统工程理论与实践[J].1998,18(6)：80-85.
[117]罗军刚,解建仓,阮本清.基于熵权的水资源短缺风险模糊综合评价模型及应用.水利学报[J].2008,39(9)：1092-1097.
[118]黄乾,彭世彰,田守岗,等.模糊物元模型在区域水安全评价中的应用.河海大学学报：自然科学版[J].2007,35(4)：379-383.
[119]杨海云,李珍照,常晓林.水电工程项目评标中的熵权决策法及其应用.武汉大学学报：工学版[J].2005,38(2)：44-48.
[120]周惠成,张改红,王国利.基于熵权的水库防洪调度多目标决策方法及应用.水利学报[J].2007,38(1)：100-106.
[121]张吉军.模糊层次分析法(FAHP).模糊系统与数学[J].2000,14(2)：80-88.
[122]陈加良.基于博弈论的组合赋权评价方法研究.福建电脑[J].2003(9)：15-16.
[123]李慧伶,王修贵,崔远来,等.灌区运行状况综合评价的方法研究.水科学进展[J].2006,17(4)：543-548.
[124]林元庆,陈加良.方法群评价中权重集化问题的研究.中国管理科学[J].2002(10)：20-23.
[125]彭勇.中长期水文预报与水库群优化调度方法及其系统集成研究[D].大连：大连理工大学,2007.