空中交通碰撞风险建模研究
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摘要
随着民用航空事业的发展，空域交通量大幅度增加，使得在有限的空域资源中空中交通运输变得拥挤，这将可能会导致飞行冲突变得日益严重，为了提高空域利用率，同时又要保证空域的安全性，空域规划者趋向于规划航路和空域结构，并且碰撞风险估计在规划过程中是一个很重要的环节，在空域规划领域中有广阔的应用前景，本文主要基于空域规划的实际需要，对空中交通碰撞风险模型的若干理论和建模方法进行研究和探讨。
在本文的研究过程中，通过分析并借鉴国内外现有的研究成果，以概率论理论为依据，建立空域碰撞风险模型。采用数学分析、回归分析、定量分析等方法对碰撞风险进行估计和分析，对空中交通碰撞风险模型的若干问题进行探讨，给出一种空域碰撞风险模型建立方法，并将有关交通参数的数据输入给模型，分析相关参数对碰撞风险的影响，为空域规划者挑选出适合的规划方案的碰撞风险评估提供计算方法和碰撞风险分析依据。
本文的主要工作有：
提出了基于到达时间间隔的碰撞风险分析方法。在本文中，通过借鉴现存碰撞风险模型的研究成果，建立了基于到达时间间隔的飞机同速度飞行的碰撞风险模型，通过采用定量分析为主的方法，并运用比较分析的方法，对已有模型和文中所提出模型的计算结果进行对比分析，阐述了两种建模方法在计算上产生的差异，说明本文建模思想的合理性和新颖性。
研究飞机在同航路上飞行的碰撞风险模型。本文结合飞机到达时间间隔、飞机流率、飞机速度建立了同航路碰撞风险模型，并借助于所建立的模型对飞行时间、速度误差、到达最小时间间隔等相关参数对碰撞风险的影响进行分析，对前后飞机速度不同时的碰撞风险进行估计。为空域规划过程中对到达最小时间间隔设定的碰撞风险估计提供了一种方法，同时也为研究航段上飞机以不同速度飞行时的碰撞风险提供了一种估计手段。
研究航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型和转弯点处碰撞风险模型。在研究航路交叉点处碰撞风险时，将借助于航段的航迹夹角对飞机的位置坐标进行处理，将所研究的碰撞概率问题转化为可利用同航路的确定方法来解决，建立航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型，并基于同航路碰撞风险模型以及航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型，建立航路转弯点处碰撞风险模型。利用所建立的碰撞风险模型，对含有交叉点的航段的碰撞风险进行估计，并且分析当交叉点的位置、航迹夹角以及在交叉点处两架飞机之间垂直间隔、转弯角等相关参数发生变化时，碰撞风险的变化趋势。
研究终端区空域内同航迹碰撞风险模型以及航线交叉点处碰撞风险模型。鉴于目前的碰撞风险模型大多是针对于航路飞行阶段以及飞机以不变速度飞行的情况，基于航路飞行阶段的碰撞风险模型的建立方法和思想，针对于飞机在飞行的过程中高度和速度是不断变化的特点，建立终端区空域内飞行高度和速度变化的碰撞风险模型，给出一种变高度、变速度飞行的碰撞风险计算和分析方法。
借助于所建立的碰撞风险模型对飞机在终端区空域内变高度、变速度飞行时的碰撞风险进行了估计，分析了不同参数的变化对碰撞风险的影响，旨在能够描述飞机在飞行过程中高度、速度都在变化的情形的碰撞风险，同时也为计算终端区空域碰撞风险提供了一种思路。
With the development of civil aviation, the quantity of air traffic is increasing very fast whichmakes the air traffic transportation congested in the limited airspace and that will lead to more seriousflight conflicts. In order to improve the utilization of airspace and ensure the safety of airspace at thesame time, the airspace planners tend to plan the airways and airspace structures, and yet collision riskestimation is a very important factor in the process of planning and is of broad application prospectsin the field of airspace planning. In this paper, some theories and modeling methods of collision riskmodel of air traffic are researched and discussed based on the actual needs of airspace planning.
In the process of research, by reviewing and analyzing the related research results from home andbroad, the airspace collision risk models are established based on the probability theory. The collisionrisk is calculated and analyzed and some problems of airspace collision risk models are researchedbased on the methods including mathematical analysis method, regression analysis method,quantitative analysis method, and so on. A method to establish collision risk models of air traffic isgiven and related data of traffic parameters can be input to the model to analyze the influences ofrelated parameters on the collision risk. That will provide the methods and analysis basis of collisionrisk estimation for airspace planners to pick out the suitable planning.
The primary contents are as follows:
The method to analyze the collision risk based on the arrival time interval is proposed. In thispaper by virtue of the researches of the existing model the collision risk model based on arrival timeinterval is given when the aircraft are flying with the same speed. By using of the quantitative analysismethod and comparative analysis method, the calculation result acquired by the model proposed inthe article is compared with the calculation result acquired by the existing model. The difference incalculation results between the collision risk model proposed in the article and the existing collisionrisk model is illustrated and the rationality and novelty of the proposed model in this article is shown.
The collision risk model on identical airway is researched with arrival time interval, the flow rateand the speeds of aircraft, the collision risk model of identical airway is proposed and by using theproposed collision risk model in this paper the influences of flight time interval, speed error,minimum time interval, and so on, on the collision risk can be analyzed, and the collision risk whenthe speeds of the leading aircraft and the tailing aircraft are different can be estimated. Those providethe collision risk estimation method for the set of minimum time interval on the flight segments in theprocess of airspace planning, meanwhile, the means to research the collision risk when aircraft are flying with the different speeds on the flight segment.
The collision risk model around intersection of airways and the collision risk model aroundturning point of airway are researched. In order to research the collision risk around intersection ofairways, the angular difference between flight tracks is used to process the aircraft positioncoordinates so that the collision probability under study can be discussed by the means of the identicalairway, and the collision risk model around intersection of airways is proposed. In the study of thecollision risk between different flight segments, the angular difference between flight tracks is used toprocess the position coordinates of aircraft. By using the collision risk model proposed the collisionrisk of flight segment with intersection can be estimated, and the variable trends of collision risk canbe analyzed when the position of intersection, the size of intersection angle, the vertical separation atthe intersection and the size of turning point change.
The collision risk models on the identical flight track and around the intersection of the air-routein terminal area airspace are researched. In view of the existing collision risk models are apt to thesituations that aircraft fly with invariable speed on the airway, the collision risk models when theflight altitudes and speeds vary with time in terminal area airspace are proposed according to thecharacterization that the aircraft flies with the variable altitudes and variable speeds based on themodeling methods and ideas of the airways. The method to calculate and analyze the collision riskwhen aircraft flies with variable altitudes and variable speeds is given.
By using the proposed collision risk models, the collision risk when aircraft fly with the variablealtitudes and the variable speeds in the terminal area airspace can be estimated and the influences ofrelative parameters on the collision can be analyzed. The purpose is to characterize the collision riskwhen the flight altitudes and flight speeds change and provide a thought for calculating the collisionrisk in terminal area airspace.
在本文的研究过程中，通过分析并借鉴国内外现有的研究成果，以概率论理论为依据，建立空域碰撞风险模型。采用数学分析、回归分析、定量分析等方法对碰撞风险进行估计和分析，对空中交通碰撞风险模型的若干问题进行探讨，给出一种空域碰撞风险模型建立方法，并将有关交通参数的数据输入给模型，分析相关参数对碰撞风险的影响，为空域规划者挑选出适合的规划方案的碰撞风险评估提供计算方法和碰撞风险分析依据。
本文的主要工作有：
提出了基于到达时间间隔的碰撞风险分析方法。在本文中，通过借鉴现存碰撞风险模型的研究成果，建立了基于到达时间间隔的飞机同速度飞行的碰撞风险模型，通过采用定量分析为主的方法，并运用比较分析的方法，对已有模型和文中所提出模型的计算结果进行对比分析，阐述了两种建模方法在计算上产生的差异，说明本文建模思想的合理性和新颖性。
研究飞机在同航路上飞行的碰撞风险模型。本文结合飞机到达时间间隔、飞机流率、飞机速度建立了同航路碰撞风险模型，并借助于所建立的模型对飞行时间、速度误差、到达最小时间间隔等相关参数对碰撞风险的影响进行分析，对前后飞机速度不同时的碰撞风险进行估计。为空域规划过程中对到达最小时间间隔设定的碰撞风险估计提供了一种方法，同时也为研究航段上飞机以不同速度飞行时的碰撞风险提供了一种估计手段。
研究航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型和转弯点处碰撞风险模型。在研究航路交叉点处碰撞风险时，将借助于航段的航迹夹角对飞机的位置坐标进行处理，将所研究的碰撞概率问题转化为可利用同航路的确定方法来解决，建立航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型，并基于同航路碰撞风险模型以及航路交叉点处碰撞风险模型，建立航路转弯点处碰撞风险模型。利用所建立的碰撞风险模型，对含有交叉点的航段的碰撞风险进行估计，并且分析当交叉点的位置、航迹夹角以及在交叉点处两架飞机之间垂直间隔、转弯角等相关参数发生变化时，碰撞风险的变化趋势。
研究终端区空域内同航迹碰撞风险模型以及航线交叉点处碰撞风险模型。鉴于目前的碰撞风险模型大多是针对于航路飞行阶段以及飞机以不变速度飞行的情况，基于航路飞行阶段的碰撞风险模型的建立方法和思想，针对于飞机在飞行的过程中高度和速度是不断变化的特点，建立终端区空域内飞行高度和速度变化的碰撞风险模型，给出一种变高度、变速度飞行的碰撞风险计算和分析方法。
借助于所建立的碰撞风险模型对飞机在终端区空域内变高度、变速度飞行时的碰撞风险进行了估计，分析了不同参数的变化对碰撞风险的影响，旨在能够描述飞机在飞行过程中高度、速度都在变化的情形的碰撞风险，同时也为计算终端区空域碰撞风险提供了一种思路。
With the development of civil aviation, the quantity of air traffic is increasing very fast whichmakes the air traffic transportation congested in the limited airspace and that will lead to more seriousflight conflicts. In order to improve the utilization of airspace and ensure the safety of airspace at thesame time, the airspace planners tend to plan the airways and airspace structures, and yet collision riskestimation is a very important factor in the process of planning and is of broad application prospectsin the field of airspace planning. In this paper, some theories and modeling methods of collision riskmodel of air traffic are researched and discussed based on the actual needs of airspace planning.
In the process of research, by reviewing and analyzing the related research results from home andbroad, the airspace collision risk models are established based on the probability theory. The collisionrisk is calculated and analyzed and some problems of airspace collision risk models are researchedbased on the methods including mathematical analysis method, regression analysis method,quantitative analysis method, and so on. A method to establish collision risk models of air traffic isgiven and related data of traffic parameters can be input to the model to analyze the influences ofrelated parameters on the collision risk. That will provide the methods and analysis basis of collisionrisk estimation for airspace planners to pick out the suitable planning.
The primary contents are as follows:
The method to analyze the collision risk based on the arrival time interval is proposed. In thispaper by virtue of the researches of the existing model the collision risk model based on arrival timeinterval is given when the aircraft are flying with the same speed. By using of the quantitative analysismethod and comparative analysis method, the calculation result acquired by the model proposed inthe article is compared with the calculation result acquired by the existing model. The difference incalculation results between the collision risk model proposed in the article and the existing collisionrisk model is illustrated and the rationality and novelty of the proposed model in this article is shown.
The collision risk model on identical airway is researched with arrival time interval, the flow rateand the speeds of aircraft, the collision risk model of identical airway is proposed and by using theproposed collision risk model in this paper the influences of flight time interval, speed error,minimum time interval, and so on, on the collision risk can be analyzed, and the collision risk whenthe speeds of the leading aircraft and the tailing aircraft are different can be estimated. Those providethe collision risk estimation method for the set of minimum time interval on the flight segments in theprocess of airspace planning, meanwhile, the means to research the collision risk when aircraft are flying with the different speeds on the flight segment.
The collision risk model around intersection of airways and the collision risk model aroundturning point of airway are researched. In order to research the collision risk around intersection ofairways, the angular difference between flight tracks is used to process the aircraft positioncoordinates so that the collision probability under study can be discussed by the means of the identicalairway, and the collision risk model around intersection of airways is proposed. In the study of thecollision risk between different flight segments, the angular difference between flight tracks is used toprocess the position coordinates of aircraft. By using the collision risk model proposed the collisionrisk of flight segment with intersection can be estimated, and the variable trends of collision risk canbe analyzed when the position of intersection, the size of intersection angle, the vertical separation atthe intersection and the size of turning point change.
The collision risk models on the identical flight track and around the intersection of the air-routein terminal area airspace are researched. In view of the existing collision risk models are apt to thesituations that aircraft fly with invariable speed on the airway, the collision risk models when theflight altitudes and speeds vary with time in terminal area airspace are proposed according to thecharacterization that the aircraft flies with the variable altitudes and variable speeds based on themodeling methods and ideas of the airways. The method to calculate and analyze the collision riskwhen aircraft flies with variable altitudes and variable speeds is given.
By using the proposed collision risk models, the collision risk when aircraft fly with the variablealtitudes and the variable speeds in the terminal area airspace can be estimated and the influences ofrelative parameters on the collision can be analyzed. The purpose is to characterize the collision riskwhen the flight altitudes and flight speeds change and provide a thought for calculating the collisionrisk in terminal area airspace.
引文
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