流域洪水过程对极端降水事件的响应分析
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摘要
近年来极端降水事件频繁发生,极端降水事件已经开始影响到人们的日常生活和社会的和谐发展,并逐渐成为学术界研究的热点问题；同时由极端降水导致的水文水资源方面的问题也是水文工作者越来越关心的焦点,特别是极端降水对洪水过程的影响。目前对极端降水的时间和空间的变化规律的研究较为广泛,但是关于极端降水对流域洪水过程以及人类活动的影响方面的研究,尚处于初步探索阶段。随着极端降水事件发生频率的提高,对人类生活不利影响的加剧,以及人们对极端降水事件认识不断提高,使极端降水事件的研究发展迅速,并且极端降水事件对流域洪水过程的影响研究已经成为水文工作者的时代使命。在此背景下,本文结合国家自然科学基金项目“流域水文过程对极端气候事件敏感性研究”(51079131),开展初步研究工作。
首先在理论上对现有的极端降水事件和洪水事件的定义进行收集和整理,并在此基础上确定出极端降水事件的筛选指标,筛选极端降水事件,然后在分析研究极端降水事件和洪水事件特性的基础上,对降水事件和洪水事件进行分级,采用统计学方法分析极端降水事件分布形态。最后分析洪水事件对极端降水事件的响应关系；并以蓄满-超渗兼容模型为基础,采用天气发生器预测未来极端降水事件,预估和分析未来流域水文过程对极端降水事件的响应关系。
以伊河流域栾川站控制的340kmn2的区域为实例研究,以1975-1998年的降水、蒸发和洪水资料,筛选出栾川站极端降水事件,并采用单纯形法、遗传算法和罗森布瑞克法联合优选的方法率定和检验模型。在分析栾川控制流域极端降水和洪水特性的基础上,对降水事件和洪水进行分级。采用天气发生器预估了未来极端降水事件,最后分析洪水过程对极端降水事件的响应指标的响应程度,初步研究极端降水事件的预测和模拟,以及模拟未来可能出现的流域洪水过程。
In recent years, extreme precipitation events occur frequently, it has already begun related to people's daily life and the harmonious development of society, and it has gradually become the hot issue of the academic research. At the same time, the problem of hydrology and water resources caused by extreme precipitation especially the impact of extreme precipitation in the flooding process is increasingly concerned by hydrologists. Now the study on the variation of extreme precipitation in time and space is more extensive, but research on the impacts of extreme precipitation on the watershed flood processes and human activities is still in the preliminary exploratory stage.The improving of the frequency of extreme precipitation events, the exacerbating adverse effects on human life, as well as the people improved understanding of extreme precipitation events in continuous improvement, which make the rapid development of study on extreme precipitation events and promot the study of extreme precipitation events on the process of watershed flood becoming the mission of the era of hydrologists. In this background, combined with Natural Science Foundation of China (The Sensitivity Research on the Hydrologic Processes to Extreme Weather Events NO.:51079131), this atudy carries out a preliminary research.
Firstly, we needed to collect and organized the definition of extreme rainfall events and extreme flood events in theory, and determined the screening indicators of extreme precipitation events on that basis, and filtered out the extreme precipitation events. Secondly, precipitation events and flooding events were graded. And the statistical theory and methods were used to analyze the probability distribution of extreme precipitation events. Finally, we studied that the flood events were in response to extreme precipitation events, and we used a weather generator to predict the future extreme precipitation events on basis of excess storage-excess infiltration, forecasted and analyzed that the hydrological process was in response to the extreme precipitation events.
In the study, we selected the Luanchuan Station of Yihe watershed, which is control of340km2. Then we selected1975-1998hours'data that the15-year flood season rainfall, evaporation and runoff folder as basic data to screen extreme precipitation events of luanchuan station. The simplex method, genetic algorithm and the LawSemb Rick optimal method are combined to calibrate and test the model. On the basis of the analysis of the Luanchuan control watershed extreme precipitation events and flooding characteristics, we classified the precipitation events and floods. The weather generator is used to forecast the future extreme precipitation events. Finally, we analyzed the response process of the description of indicators of the flood events of extreme precipitation events, studied on the prediction and simulation of extreme precipitation events, as well as, simulated of possible future river basin flood process.
首先在理论上对现有的极端降水事件和洪水事件的定义进行收集和整理,并在此基础上确定出极端降水事件的筛选指标,筛选极端降水事件,然后在分析研究极端降水事件和洪水事件特性的基础上,对降水事件和洪水事件进行分级,采用统计学方法分析极端降水事件分布形态。最后分析洪水事件对极端降水事件的响应关系；并以蓄满-超渗兼容模型为基础,采用天气发生器预测未来极端降水事件,预估和分析未来流域水文过程对极端降水事件的响应关系。
以伊河流域栾川站控制的340kmn2的区域为实例研究,以1975-1998年的降水、蒸发和洪水资料,筛选出栾川站极端降水事件,并采用单纯形法、遗传算法和罗森布瑞克法联合优选的方法率定和检验模型。在分析栾川控制流域极端降水和洪水特性的基础上,对降水事件和洪水进行分级。采用天气发生器预估了未来极端降水事件,最后分析洪水过程对极端降水事件的响应指标的响应程度,初步研究极端降水事件的预测和模拟,以及模拟未来可能出现的流域洪水过程。
In recent years, extreme precipitation events occur frequently, it has already begun related to people's daily life and the harmonious development of society, and it has gradually become the hot issue of the academic research. At the same time, the problem of hydrology and water resources caused by extreme precipitation especially the impact of extreme precipitation in the flooding process is increasingly concerned by hydrologists. Now the study on the variation of extreme precipitation in time and space is more extensive, but research on the impacts of extreme precipitation on the watershed flood processes and human activities is still in the preliminary exploratory stage.The improving of the frequency of extreme precipitation events, the exacerbating adverse effects on human life, as well as the people improved understanding of extreme precipitation events in continuous improvement, which make the rapid development of study on extreme precipitation events and promot the study of extreme precipitation events on the process of watershed flood becoming the mission of the era of hydrologists. In this background, combined with Natural Science Foundation of China (The Sensitivity Research on the Hydrologic Processes to Extreme Weather Events NO.:51079131), this atudy carries out a preliminary research.
Firstly, we needed to collect and organized the definition of extreme rainfall events and extreme flood events in theory, and determined the screening indicators of extreme precipitation events on that basis, and filtered out the extreme precipitation events. Secondly, precipitation events and flooding events were graded. And the statistical theory and methods were used to analyze the probability distribution of extreme precipitation events. Finally, we studied that the flood events were in response to extreme precipitation events, and we used a weather generator to predict the future extreme precipitation events on basis of excess storage-excess infiltration, forecasted and analyzed that the hydrological process was in response to the extreme precipitation events.
In the study, we selected the Luanchuan Station of Yihe watershed, which is control of340km2. Then we selected1975-1998hours'data that the15-year flood season rainfall, evaporation and runoff folder as basic data to screen extreme precipitation events of luanchuan station. The simplex method, genetic algorithm and the LawSemb Rick optimal method are combined to calibrate and test the model. On the basis of the analysis of the Luanchuan control watershed extreme precipitation events and flooding characteristics, we classified the precipitation events and floods. The weather generator is used to forecast the future extreme precipitation events. Finally, we analyzed the response process of the description of indicators of the flood events of extreme precipitation events, studied on the prediction and simulation of extreme precipitation events, as well as, simulated of possible future river basin flood process.
引文
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