气候变暖背景下的中国碳排放的时间演变轨迹及区域特征
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摘要
全球气候变暖已是一个不可争议的事实,尤其进入上世纪八十年代以后,全球气温明显上升。人类活动因素引起的温室效应的不断加剧和温室气体排放尤其是二氧化碳排放的不断增加,是造成全球变暖的重要原因之一。因此,尽量减少二氧化碳的排放是减缓气候变暖的主要措施之一,而中国作为目前世界上最大的碳排放国之一,中国的碳减排问题己成为国内外共同关注的焦点。
本文首先从中国连续暖冬现象的出现入手,采用扫描统计量方法检验这种现象的异常性。结果发现中国近年来暖冬连续出现的现象从统计的角度上看是显著异常的,说明中国冬季平均气温普遍升高,气候逐渐变暖。然后以引起气候变暖的主要原因二氧化碳排放作为研究对象,从时间和空间两个角度,分别采用了动态平滑系数回归模型和Sampson-Guttorp空间相关非参数估计方法分析了中国二氧化碳排放的演变轨迹和区域特征,结果显示中国碳排放量依次经历了快速增加、保持平稳、急速增加三个阶段；GDP对碳排放的影响程度随时间依次经历了缓慢增加、快速增加、快速减少、快速增加、缓慢减少、快速增加六个阶段；中国碳排放量总体上呈现东部高西部低、北部高南部低、局部中北部高西北部低的空间分布格局。最后就实证结果结合实际分别对中国和中国各区域的节能减排提出科学决策。全文共分为七章,具体如下：
第一章是绪论部分,本章主要内容包括：研究背景及研究意义、研究内容及研究框架、研究方法及拟解决的关键问题和本文的创新点。第二章是综述部分,本章主要从暖冬现象研究、碳排放与经济增长关系的研究和碳排放区域特征研究三个方面对国际国内的研究进行综述,从而为本文提供坚实的理论铺垫。第三章是气候变暖的验证及其影响,本章前半部分采用扫描统计量对中国出现连续暖冬现象进行了检验,本章后半部分主要就气候变暖的原因和影响作了简要介绍,如何有效减少二氧化碳等温室气体的排放已成为中国亟待解决的一个重要问题。第四章是碳排放的测算,本章主要介绍了几个国际上权威的涉及二氧化碳排放数据研究机构和有关碳排放量的估算方法,为下面的实证分析提供科学的数据支持。第五章和第六章是实证部分。第五章是中国碳排放量的时间演变轨迹,本章首先从时间的角度出发,研究了中国碳排放的演变轨迹,然后融入经济增长因素,采用动态平滑系数回归模型具体分析中国的碳排放与经济增长的关系随时间变化的趋势及其成因。第六章是中国碳排放的区域特征,本章从空间的角度出发,采用Sampson-Guttorp空间相关非参数估计方法计算中国各省域碳排放的SG相关系数,并以此定义距离进行聚类分析,研究中国碳排放的空间分布特征。最后一章是结论及政策建议,本章将实证分析的结果进行了总结,并与实际结合,为中国及中国各区域的碳减排提出具体的政策建议,最后提出了研究中尚待解决的一些具体问题。
Global warming has turned to be an indisputable topic, and especially after the eighties of last century global temperatures increase significantly. One of the significant factors is that the increasing greenhouse effect caused by humans continues to impact greenhouse gas emissions especially those of carbon dioxide. Thus, reducing carbon dioxide emissions becomes one of the major tasks to ease the climate changes. China, as one of the countries that have the largest impacts on carbon emissions, has been the academic focus for its impact on carbon emissions.
The paper begins with testing the abnormality of the continuous warm winters by using the scan statistic method. The result shows that the recent continuous warm winters in China are remarkably abnormal and the average winter temperature is higher than normal. Then the paper, from the functions of time and space, sets carbon emissions which cause global warming as the object and analyzes the trajectory changes and regional characteristics of carbon emissions in China by using dynamic smooth coefficient regression model and Sampson-Guttorp spatial statistics model. The analysis indicates that carbon emissions go through three stages which are rapid increase, steadiness and rapid increase. It also reveals that the impact of GDP on carbon emissions over the time includes six stages of slow increase, rapid increase, rapid decrease, rapid increase, slow decrease and rapid increase. Overall, the extent of carbon emissions in China is geographically uneven with high in the east and the north and low in the south and the west, and high in part of the central-north and low in the northwest. Finally, the paper proposes a technical suggestion to reduce emissions in China and its regions based on empirical and practical data. The paper consists of seven chapters.
Chapter1is an introduction. It describes the background and purpose, the content and the framework, the methods and the key issues, and innovative point of view of the study. Chapter2is a review. It summarizes three areas of domestic and global research on the phenomenon of warm winters, the relation between carbon emissions and economic growth, and regional characteristics of carbon emissions, thus providing a solid theoretical framework of this paper. Chapter3illustrates the phenomenon of climate warming and its impacts. The first half of the chapter examines the phenomenon of continuous warm winters by using the scan statistic method. And the second half briefly states the reason and impact of climate warming. Clearly, how to effectively reduce carbon emissions and other releases has become a critical subject to be resolved. Chapter4calculates the extent of carbon emissions. The chapter introduces the classic estimation methods developed by global authorities, which provide theoretical supports for the following empirical analysis. Chapter5and6are empirical studies. Chapter5analyzes the trajectory changes of carbon emissions with time changes. The study begins with the trajectory changes over the timeline, and then applies the Dynamic Smooth Coefficient Regression model with the factors of economic growth integrated to discover the connection between carbon emissions and the economic growth in China as well as the trend and the cause. Chapter6analyzes the regional characteristics of carbon emissions in China by using the Sampson-Guttorp spatial statistical methods. It estimates SG correlations of carbon emissions among the provinces in China, which defines the distances to conduct cluster analysis and to determine the spatial distribution characteristics of China's carbon emissions. The last chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion on implementation. The chapter summarizes the empirical analysis and the practical applications and proposes the suggestion on the policy to reduce carbon emissions in various regions in China. Finally, the paper puts forward the issues to be further studied.
本文首先从中国连续暖冬现象的出现入手,采用扫描统计量方法检验这种现象的异常性。结果发现中国近年来暖冬连续出现的现象从统计的角度上看是显著异常的,说明中国冬季平均气温普遍升高,气候逐渐变暖。然后以引起气候变暖的主要原因二氧化碳排放作为研究对象,从时间和空间两个角度,分别采用了动态平滑系数回归模型和Sampson-Guttorp空间相关非参数估计方法分析了中国二氧化碳排放的演变轨迹和区域特征,结果显示中国碳排放量依次经历了快速增加、保持平稳、急速增加三个阶段；GDP对碳排放的影响程度随时间依次经历了缓慢增加、快速增加、快速减少、快速增加、缓慢减少、快速增加六个阶段；中国碳排放量总体上呈现东部高西部低、北部高南部低、局部中北部高西北部低的空间分布格局。最后就实证结果结合实际分别对中国和中国各区域的节能减排提出科学决策。全文共分为七章,具体如下：
第一章是绪论部分,本章主要内容包括：研究背景及研究意义、研究内容及研究框架、研究方法及拟解决的关键问题和本文的创新点。第二章是综述部分,本章主要从暖冬现象研究、碳排放与经济增长关系的研究和碳排放区域特征研究三个方面对国际国内的研究进行综述,从而为本文提供坚实的理论铺垫。第三章是气候变暖的验证及其影响,本章前半部分采用扫描统计量对中国出现连续暖冬现象进行了检验,本章后半部分主要就气候变暖的原因和影响作了简要介绍,如何有效减少二氧化碳等温室气体的排放已成为中国亟待解决的一个重要问题。第四章是碳排放的测算,本章主要介绍了几个国际上权威的涉及二氧化碳排放数据研究机构和有关碳排放量的估算方法,为下面的实证分析提供科学的数据支持。第五章和第六章是实证部分。第五章是中国碳排放量的时间演变轨迹,本章首先从时间的角度出发,研究了中国碳排放的演变轨迹,然后融入经济增长因素,采用动态平滑系数回归模型具体分析中国的碳排放与经济增长的关系随时间变化的趋势及其成因。第六章是中国碳排放的区域特征,本章从空间的角度出发,采用Sampson-Guttorp空间相关非参数估计方法计算中国各省域碳排放的SG相关系数,并以此定义距离进行聚类分析,研究中国碳排放的空间分布特征。最后一章是结论及政策建议,本章将实证分析的结果进行了总结,并与实际结合,为中国及中国各区域的碳减排提出具体的政策建议,最后提出了研究中尚待解决的一些具体问题。
Global warming has turned to be an indisputable topic, and especially after the eighties of last century global temperatures increase significantly. One of the significant factors is that the increasing greenhouse effect caused by humans continues to impact greenhouse gas emissions especially those of carbon dioxide. Thus, reducing carbon dioxide emissions becomes one of the major tasks to ease the climate changes. China, as one of the countries that have the largest impacts on carbon emissions, has been the academic focus for its impact on carbon emissions.
The paper begins with testing the abnormality of the continuous warm winters by using the scan statistic method. The result shows that the recent continuous warm winters in China are remarkably abnormal and the average winter temperature is higher than normal. Then the paper, from the functions of time and space, sets carbon emissions which cause global warming as the object and analyzes the trajectory changes and regional characteristics of carbon emissions in China by using dynamic smooth coefficient regression model and Sampson-Guttorp spatial statistics model. The analysis indicates that carbon emissions go through three stages which are rapid increase, steadiness and rapid increase. It also reveals that the impact of GDP on carbon emissions over the time includes six stages of slow increase, rapid increase, rapid decrease, rapid increase, slow decrease and rapid increase. Overall, the extent of carbon emissions in China is geographically uneven with high in the east and the north and low in the south and the west, and high in part of the central-north and low in the northwest. Finally, the paper proposes a technical suggestion to reduce emissions in China and its regions based on empirical and practical data. The paper consists of seven chapters.
Chapter1is an introduction. It describes the background and purpose, the content and the framework, the methods and the key issues, and innovative point of view of the study. Chapter2is a review. It summarizes three areas of domestic and global research on the phenomenon of warm winters, the relation between carbon emissions and economic growth, and regional characteristics of carbon emissions, thus providing a solid theoretical framework of this paper. Chapter3illustrates the phenomenon of climate warming and its impacts. The first half of the chapter examines the phenomenon of continuous warm winters by using the scan statistic method. And the second half briefly states the reason and impact of climate warming. Clearly, how to effectively reduce carbon emissions and other releases has become a critical subject to be resolved. Chapter4calculates the extent of carbon emissions. The chapter introduces the classic estimation methods developed by global authorities, which provide theoretical supports for the following empirical analysis. Chapter5and6are empirical studies. Chapter5analyzes the trajectory changes of carbon emissions with time changes. The study begins with the trajectory changes over the timeline, and then applies the Dynamic Smooth Coefficient Regression model with the factors of economic growth integrated to discover the connection between carbon emissions and the economic growth in China as well as the trend and the cause. Chapter6analyzes the regional characteristics of carbon emissions in China by using the Sampson-Guttorp spatial statistical methods. It estimates SG correlations of carbon emissions among the provinces in China, which defines the distances to conduct cluster analysis and to determine the spatial distribution characteristics of China's carbon emissions. The last chapter is the conclusion and the suggestion on implementation. The chapter summarizes the empirical analysis and the practical applications and proposes the suggestion on the policy to reduce carbon emissions in various regions in China. Finally, the paper puts forward the issues to be further studied.
引文
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