川西藏区GYQ旅游景区（BOT）项目融资分析与风险对策研究
摘要
四川省藏区自然风光优美,生态条件优越、民族文化厚重,大力发展生态文化旅游业的条件得天独厚。全省提出将文化旅游业作为藏区最具优势、最具潜力的支柱产业抓好抓紧,是提升藏区自主发展、和谐发展的重要途径之一。坚持旅游业同文化产业、生态发展结合,不仅有利于促进当地旅游业的对外开放水平,带动人民群众增收致富,而且旅游开发的产业替代性与扶贫功能及社区脱贫任务相契合。旅游业作为川西藏区最具发展潜力、竞争优势的特色富民产业和支柱性产业,依托其强大的经济和社会发展的带动作用,将有效促进藏区转变经济发展方式、实现科学发展、维护地区社会稳定,对于推进四川藏区实现跨越式发展具有十分重要的现实意义。
本文选取了川西藏区GYQ旅游景区(BOT)项目进行研究。首先,在研究国内外文献综述的基础上,提出本文的研究思路、方法、结构安排及技术路线；其次,对项目融资的相关理论进行阐述,主要包括项目融资的定义与类别,BOT模式的特点、运作流程、参与主体及优劣势,项目融资风险的类别、特点及管理控制过程；再次,对本文所选取的GYQ旅游景区项目概况进行介绍,包括项目背景、基本情况、项目规划、投资估算等方面；随后,在对整个项目经济效益进行预测的基础上,分析项目的经济可行性,制定项目融资及还款安排；最后,从项目环境、项目建设、项目经营三个方面梳理出该项目融资案例中可能出现的风险,最后提出针对性的政策建议,以期为企业提供参考。
The scenery is very beautiful in the west of Sichuan province. There are long history and nature, so the condition to developing tourism is competitive. The Sichuan government considers that they should make the natural tourism to be the most competitive and developed industry. It's the most important channel to promote economy and income. To combine tourism and culture is helpful to promote the opening of the tourist industry. As the most development potential and competitive industry, the tourism industry plays an important role in economic developing and social peace. It is of great significance in transformation of the pattern of economic development, realizing scientific development, maintaining social stability and making the great-leap-forward development in Tibetan area of western Sichuan.
The paper chooses GYQ Scenic Area in Tibetan area of western Sichuan to research. Firstly, based on domestic and international literature review, the author proposes the research ideas, method, structure arrangement and the technical route; secondly, describes relevant theory of project financing, including the definition and classification of project financing, the characteristics of BOT model and the risk of project financing; thirdly, introduces the background, the basic situation of project, project planning and investment estimation of GYQ Scenic Area Project; then based on the prediction of the economic benefits of the whole project, analyses the feasibility of the project and makes project financing and reimbursement arrangements; finally, discusses the possible risk in project financing from project environment, project construction and project management and puts forward the policy suggestions in order to provide the reference for the enterprise.
本文选取了川西藏区GYQ旅游景区(BOT)项目进行研究。首先,在研究国内外文献综述的基础上,提出本文的研究思路、方法、结构安排及技术路线；其次,对项目融资的相关理论进行阐述,主要包括项目融资的定义与类别,BOT模式的特点、运作流程、参与主体及优劣势,项目融资风险的类别、特点及管理控制过程；再次,对本文所选取的GYQ旅游景区项目概况进行介绍,包括项目背景、基本情况、项目规划、投资估算等方面；随后,在对整个项目经济效益进行预测的基础上,分析项目的经济可行性,制定项目融资及还款安排；最后,从项目环境、项目建设、项目经营三个方面梳理出该项目融资案例中可能出现的风险,最后提出针对性的政策建议,以期为企业提供参考。
The scenery is very beautiful in the west of Sichuan province. There are long history and nature, so the condition to developing tourism is competitive. The Sichuan government considers that they should make the natural tourism to be the most competitive and developed industry. It's the most important channel to promote economy and income. To combine tourism and culture is helpful to promote the opening of the tourist industry. As the most development potential and competitive industry, the tourism industry plays an important role in economic developing and social peace. It is of great significance in transformation of the pattern of economic development, realizing scientific development, maintaining social stability and making the great-leap-forward development in Tibetan area of western Sichuan.
The paper chooses GYQ Scenic Area in Tibetan area of western Sichuan to research. Firstly, based on domestic and international literature review, the author proposes the research ideas, method, structure arrangement and the technical route; secondly, describes relevant theory of project financing, including the definition and classification of project financing, the characteristics of BOT model and the risk of project financing; thirdly, introduces the background, the basic situation of project, project planning and investment estimation of GYQ Scenic Area Project; then based on the prediction of the economic benefits of the whole project, analyses the feasibility of the project and makes project financing and reimbursement arrangements; finally, discusses the possible risk in project financing from project environment, project construction and project management and puts forward the policy suggestions in order to provide the reference for the enterprise.
引文
[1]Chee,TS., Yeo,KT. Risk analysis of a build-operate-transfer(BOT) power plant project [A].95'Engineering Management Conference[C]. Hong Kong,1995,275-280.
[2]Chuan,C. Hemanta,D. BOT application in China:Driving and impeding factors [J]. International Journal of Projeet Management.2008,26 (4):388-398.
[3]Cooper,C. Tourism:Principles and Practice [M].高等教育出版社.2004,6.
[4]Copeland,TE., Weston,JF., Shastri,K. Financial theory and corporate policy[M]. Addison-Wesley Publishing, Pearson Education,2005:147-158.
[5]Fletcher,J., Archer,R. Progress of Tourism, Recreation and Hospitality Mana gement[M]. London:Relhaven Press.1991.
[6]Kemal,K. Perceptions of foreign investors on the tourism market in central Asia including Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan[J]. Touri sm Management.2007,28 (3):25-30.
[7]Kulendran,N., Wilisong,K. "Mdelling Business Travel"[J]. Tourism Economi cs.2000,6(1):47-59.
[8]Kum,E. Foreign direct investment in tourism-flows and volumes[J]. Tour ism Management.2006,27 (4)
[9]Kumarsawamy, MM., Zhang,XQ. Governmental role in BOT-led infrastruct ure development [J]. International Journal of Project Management,2001, 19:195-205.
[10]Lim,C. An Ecommetric Classification and Review of International Tourism Dem and Models [J]. Tourism Economics.1997,3 (1):69-81.
[11]Mathieson,A., Wall,G. Tourism:Economic, Physical and Social Impacts[M]. Longman Press.1982.
[12]Mohamed, M. Askar,A. Problems Facing Parties Involved in Buid Operate and Transport Projects in Egypt[J]. Journal of Management in Engineering. 2002,18(4):173-178.
[13]Poirier,RA. Political Risk Analysis and Tourism[J]. Annuals of Tourism R esearch.1997,24(3):675-686.
[14]Shan,J., Wilson,K. Causality Between and Tourism:Empirical Evidence fro m China. Applied Economics.2001,8:279-283.
[15]Shen,LY.,Wu,YZ. Risk concession model for build operate transfer contra ct projects [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.2005, 131(2):211-220.
[16]Shen,LY. Li,H. Li.QM. Alternative Concession Model for BOT contracts projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.2002,128 (4):324-333.
[17]Tiong,RLK., Alum,J. Financial commitments for BOT projects[J]. Internati onal Journal of Project Management.1997,15(2):73-78.
[18]Yeo, KT., Tiong, RLK. Positive management of differences for risk reduct i-on in BOT projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management.200 0,18(4):357-365.
[19]岑先梅.广西旅游投资的BOT模式探析[J].广西轻工业.2008,3：106-108.
[20]陈垂兴.BOT的理论、实践及其在西部大开发的中的前景.暨南大学硕士研究生论文.2003
[21]陈菲菲.我国旅游项目融资综述[J].财经视点.2011,9：133－134.
[22]陈煌铭,陈炳富.论民营化基础建设BOT项目风险之管理战略[J].南开管理评论.1999,2：48－52.
[23]陈曦,王松江.基于霍尔三维结构模型的城市水务业项目融资模式研究[J].项目管理技术.2010,8(12)：30-34.
[24]陈映葵.旅游企业投融资风险及其防范[J].财会通讯.2008,5：18-19.
[25]陈咏英.旅游业投融资文献综述及研究展望[J].财会通讯.2012,6：91－92,95.
[26]戴大双.项目融资[M].北京：机械工业出版社.2009.
[27]高立昕,王松江.BOT项目融资模式问题及对策措施[J].项目管理技术.2010,8(12)：26-30.
[28]郭淳凡.资源类景区融资困境与对策分析[J].生态经济.2010,3：148－149, 154.
[29]胡怀邦,高晓红.项目融资：西部大开发中一种高效的融资方式[J].金融研究.2001,5：98-102.
[30]蒋先玲.项目融资[M].北京：中国金融出版社.2001.
[31]兰英英.西北民族地区旅游产业发展投融资模式探析[J].甘肃农业.2011,01：72-74.
[32]李平.我国旅游投资存在的误区及建议[J].宏观经济研究.2003.,(10)：30－32.
[33]刘丽敏,底萌妍.我国环境保护投融资方式探析[J].财政研究.2007,9：25-28.
[34]刘省平.BOT项目融资理论与实务[M].西安交通大学出版社,2002.
[35]刘晓君,张宏.基于BOT和TOT的基础设施项目融资模式[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版).2004,36(1)；94-97.
[36]孙磊.BOT项目融资模式在我国的应用[D].天津财经大学硕士研究生论文.2006
[37]孙晓岭.对西部大开发中应用BOT融资方式的几点思考[J].财经科学.2000,12(增刊)：152－154.
[38]索扬,孙中伟,王晓东.我国景点建设项目融资的方式与模式[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版).2004,(7)：32－33.
[39]汪涛.A房地产项目投融资分析报告[D].西南财经大学说是学位论文.2007.
[40]王春丽,戚力.浅析BOT融资项目中的政府角色问题[J].技术经济与管理研究.2004,01：36-37.
[41]王剑.贵州GZS公司高速公路建设融资风险研究[D].贵州大学硕士学位论文.2007.
[42]王敏正,王松江.BOT项目实施指南[M].昆明：云南科技出版社.2002.
[43]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理[M].中国水利水电出版社,2005.
[44]吴静.基于BOT模式的包头小白河湿地景区开发项目风险管理研究[D].山东大学硕士学位论文.2012.
[45]吴孝灵,周晶,王冀宁等.基于CAPM的BOT项目“有限追索权”融资决策模型[J].管理工程学报.2012,26(2)：175－183.
[46]武玉琴.我国高速公路项目融资结构及融资决策研究[D].暨南大学博士学位论文.2006.
[47]徐梅,周少华.“双赢”理念下的项目融资风险管理与控制[J].科技管理研究.2005,7：103-105.
[48]徐钰婷.海南国际旅游岛融资模式研究[D].中南林业科技大学硕士学位论文.2012.
[49]云深.寻求跨越发展,提升幸福指数[J].中国西部.2012,01：120－123.
[50]张朝兵.项目融资理论构成及分析[J].求索.2006,1：46-48.
[51]张守凤,黄明知.BoT方式流行的原因及其风险分析[M].科技出版社,2003.
[52]甄玉敏.项目融资风险与防范[J].长春大学学报.2003,(3)：44-46.
[2]Chuan,C. Hemanta,D. BOT application in China:Driving and impeding factors [J]. International Journal of Projeet Management.2008,26 (4):388-398.
[3]Cooper,C. Tourism:Principles and Practice [M].高等教育出版社.2004,6.
[4]Copeland,TE., Weston,JF., Shastri,K. Financial theory and corporate policy[M]. Addison-Wesley Publishing, Pearson Education,2005:147-158.
[5]Fletcher,J., Archer,R. Progress of Tourism, Recreation and Hospitality Mana gement[M]. London:Relhaven Press.1991.
[6]Kemal,K. Perceptions of foreign investors on the tourism market in central Asia including Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan[J]. Touri sm Management.2007,28 (3):25-30.
[7]Kulendran,N., Wilisong,K. "Mdelling Business Travel"[J]. Tourism Economi cs.2000,6(1):47-59.
[8]Kum,E. Foreign direct investment in tourism-flows and volumes[J]. Tour ism Management.2006,27 (4)
[9]Kumarsawamy, MM., Zhang,XQ. Governmental role in BOT-led infrastruct ure development [J]. International Journal of Project Management,2001, 19:195-205.
[10]Lim,C. An Ecommetric Classification and Review of International Tourism Dem and Models [J]. Tourism Economics.1997,3 (1):69-81.
[11]Mathieson,A., Wall,G. Tourism:Economic, Physical and Social Impacts[M]. Longman Press.1982.
[12]Mohamed, M. Askar,A. Problems Facing Parties Involved in Buid Operate and Transport Projects in Egypt[J]. Journal of Management in Engineering. 2002,18(4):173-178.
[13]Poirier,RA. Political Risk Analysis and Tourism[J]. Annuals of Tourism R esearch.1997,24(3):675-686.
[14]Shan,J., Wilson,K. Causality Between and Tourism:Empirical Evidence fro m China. Applied Economics.2001,8:279-283.
[15]Shen,LY.,Wu,YZ. Risk concession model for build operate transfer contra ct projects [J]. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.2005, 131(2):211-220.
[16]Shen,LY. Li,H. Li.QM. Alternative Concession Model for BOT contracts projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.2002,128 (4):324-333.
[17]Tiong,RLK., Alum,J. Financial commitments for BOT projects[J]. Internati onal Journal of Project Management.1997,15(2):73-78.
[18]Yeo, KT., Tiong, RLK. Positive management of differences for risk reduct i-on in BOT projects[J]. International Journal of Project Management.200 0,18(4):357-365.
[19]岑先梅.广西旅游投资的BOT模式探析[J].广西轻工业.2008,3：106-108.
[20]陈垂兴.BOT的理论、实践及其在西部大开发的中的前景.暨南大学硕士研究生论文.2003
[21]陈菲菲.我国旅游项目融资综述[J].财经视点.2011,9：133－134.
[22]陈煌铭,陈炳富.论民营化基础建设BOT项目风险之管理战略[J].南开管理评论.1999,2：48－52.
[23]陈曦,王松江.基于霍尔三维结构模型的城市水务业项目融资模式研究[J].项目管理技术.2010,8(12)：30-34.
[24]陈映葵.旅游企业投融资风险及其防范[J].财会通讯.2008,5：18-19.
[25]陈咏英.旅游业投融资文献综述及研究展望[J].财会通讯.2012,6：91－92,95.
[26]戴大双.项目融资[M].北京：机械工业出版社.2009.
[27]高立昕,王松江.BOT项目融资模式问题及对策措施[J].项目管理技术.2010,8(12)：26-30.
[28]郭淳凡.资源类景区融资困境与对策分析[J].生态经济.2010,3：148－149, 154.
[29]胡怀邦,高晓红.项目融资：西部大开发中一种高效的融资方式[J].金融研究.2001,5：98-102.
[30]蒋先玲.项目融资[M].北京：中国金融出版社.2001.
[31]兰英英.西北民族地区旅游产业发展投融资模式探析[J].甘肃农业.2011,01：72-74.
[32]李平.我国旅游投资存在的误区及建议[J].宏观经济研究.2003.,(10)：30－32.
[33]刘丽敏,底萌妍.我国环境保护投融资方式探析[J].财政研究.2007,9：25-28.
[34]刘省平.BOT项目融资理论与实务[M].西安交通大学出版社,2002.
[35]刘晓君,张宏.基于BOT和TOT的基础设施项目融资模式[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版).2004,36(1)；94-97.
[36]孙磊.BOT项目融资模式在我国的应用[D].天津财经大学硕士研究生论文.2006
[37]孙晓岭.对西部大开发中应用BOT融资方式的几点思考[J].财经科学.2000,12(增刊)：152－154.
[38]索扬,孙中伟,王晓东.我国景点建设项目融资的方式与模式[J].河北师范大学学报(自然科学版).2004,(7)：32－33.
[39]汪涛.A房地产项目投融资分析报告[D].西南财经大学说是学位论文.2007.
[40]王春丽,戚力.浅析BOT融资项目中的政府角色问题[J].技术经济与管理研究.2004,01：36-37.
[41]王剑.贵州GZS公司高速公路建设融资风险研究[D].贵州大学硕士学位论文.2007.
[42]王敏正,王松江.BOT项目实施指南[M].昆明：云南科技出版社.2002.
[43]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理[M].中国水利水电出版社,2005.
[44]吴静.基于BOT模式的包头小白河湿地景区开发项目风险管理研究[D].山东大学硕士学位论文.2012.
[45]吴孝灵,周晶,王冀宁等.基于CAPM的BOT项目“有限追索权”融资决策模型[J].管理工程学报.2012,26(2)：175－183.
[46]武玉琴.我国高速公路项目融资结构及融资决策研究[D].暨南大学博士学位论文.2006.
[47]徐梅,周少华.“双赢”理念下的项目融资风险管理与控制[J].科技管理研究.2005,7：103-105.
[48]徐钰婷.海南国际旅游岛融资模式研究[D].中南林业科技大学硕士学位论文.2012.
[49]云深.寻求跨越发展,提升幸福指数[J].中国西部.2012,01：120－123.
[50]张朝兵.项目融资理论构成及分析[J].求索.2006,1：46-48.
[51]张守凤,黄明知.BoT方式流行的原因及其风险分析[M].科技出版社,2003.
[52]甄玉敏.项目融资风险与防范[J].长春大学学报.2003,(3)：44-46.