我国解决风电充风的组合途径及优化模型研究
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摘要
2005年以来,中国风电产业快速发展。截至2013年底,中国风电累计装机容量达到91744.6MW,高居全球首位。中国风电装机主要分布在东北、华北与西北地区,总体呈现出风电大规模集中建设且远离负荷中心的的特点。风电的地理分布特性在一定程度上影响了风电出力的消纳水平。2013年,中国风电弃风电量达到150亿kWh,折合经济损失达到75亿元以上。风电产业严峻的弃风形势在宏观层面不利于风电产业的可持续发展,阻碍发电结构调整的进程,进一步则影响了中国经济低碳化的发展；在微观层面则不利于风电项目经济效益的实现,致使风电开发商难以在计划运行年限内回收投资费用。
风电消纳是全球性的问题,西方国家均积极开展风电消纳的研究工作。在政策层面出台风电产业发展规划以及与之相适应的激励政策；在经济层面则予以优惠的电价、税收策略；在社会层面则鼓励调峰电源与风电协调调度,引导社会用电转移等；在技术层面则积极发展风机技术、风电预测技术与风电调度技术。各层面的风电消纳途径并非独立存在的一个研究点,各途径的组合可以将各个点串联成线,线与线的交叉则形成风电消纳途径优化的研究面。本文围绕风电消纳的问题,在归纳中国风电产业发展现状的基础上,重点研究了风电弃风对风电项目的经济影响,需求侧协助消纳风电的组合途径优化,发电侧协助消纳风电的组合途径优化,需求侧与发电侧联合协助风电消纳的组合途径优化以及风电消纳途径选择的综合评价。
关于弃风对风电项目的经济影响,结合不同风电资源区域在不同电价水平、不同利用小时情景下,测算了风电项目资本金利润率、动态投资回收期以及内部收益率状况。测算结果表明在当前风电弃风分布状况下风能资源丰富区域的经济效益较其它区域要低。展望未来中国将逐步收紧在风能资源丰富地区的风电项目投资。
关于需求侧协助风电消纳的组合途经优化,首先分别针对大用户协助消纳、电力外送以及分时电价三种风电消纳途径对风电消纳的影响展开研究,研究结果表明需求侧风电消纳途径的实施有助于扩大风电的消纳能力,而随着需求侧消纳途径的深化,消纳水平将进一步提高。另外,将需求侧的消纳途径进行组合优化,研究结果表明组合优化能够深化风电消纳水平。
关于发电侧协助风电消纳的组合途径优化,首先针对风电接入电网后风电对火电的发电绩效的影响以及火电参与调峰程度对风电弃风的影响进行分析,并构建了火电提供辅助服务的经济补偿模型。其次,分别针对储能系统协助消纳与碳交易机制两种风电消纳途径对风电弃风的影响展开研究,研究结果表明发电侧消纳途径的引入有助于解决风电的弃风问题。最后,对储能系统与碳交易机制进行组合,研究其共同作用下风电的弃风状况,优化结果表明发电侧组合途径具有深化风电消纳的实施价值。
关于需求侧与发电侧联合协助风电消纳的组合途径优化,首先分析了需求侧参与下火电为风电调峰的发电绩效,结果表明需求侧的参与有助于优化发电侧发电效率。进一步,分别针对大用户与储能系统,电力外送与储能系统,分时电价与碳交易机制三种需求侧与发电侧联合优化下,风电的消纳水平展开研究,优化结果表明需求侧消纳途径与发电侧消纳途径的组合有助于扩大风电的消纳水平。
关于风电消纳途径选择的综合评价,从经济效益、环境效益和社会效益三个角度出发建立了不同消纳方式下风电项目综合效益评价指标体系,并分别采用局部模糊综合评价方法、物元可拓综合评价方法对储能、外送和大用户直购电三类消纳方式下的风电项目综合效益进行算例分析。
Since2005, the wind power industry in China has expanded rapidly. China has91744.6cumulative megawatts of wind capacity by the end of2013and more than any other country in the world. Most wind power installed capacity are distributed in Northeast China, North China and Northwest China, which are far from the load center and shows the characteristics of large-scale construction. The geographic distribution characteristics of wind power influence its consumption level to some extent. In2013, the abandoned quantity of wind power electricity reached15billion kWh, losing7.5billion yuan. On the macro stuff, the severe wind power abandon condition goes against sustainable development of wind power, hinders the adjustment pace of power structure and influences low-carbon development of China's economy. On a microscopic level, this condition is bad for the economic benefit realization of wind power project and it will make power project developers hard to reclaim their investment cost.
Wind power consumption is a global issue that western countries all do reach about wind power consumption actively. At the policy level, there comes wind power industry development programs and relevant incentive policies; in the aspect of economy, favorable electricity price and tax strategy are given; at the social level, coordinating dispatch between peaking power sources and wind power is encouraged, which guides the shift of social electricity demand; at the technical level, many countries actively develop compressor blower&fan technology, wind power prediction technology and wind power dispatching technology. These aspects are not independent, and they can make different combinations to study how to optimize wind power consumption approach. This article focuses on the problem about wind power consumption, and on the basis of China's wind power industry development situation, it also highlights the abandoned wind's influence on wind power project, wind power's combinatorial optimization consumption under the help of demand side, generation side and both of them.
Considering the abandoned wind power's economic influence on wind power projects and different wind power resources under different electricity price levels and different utilization hours, this article calculates capital profit margin, dynamic investment pay-back period and internal rate of return. The results show that economic benefit in wind power resource-rich areas is lower than other areas under the present distribution condition of abandoned power. In the future, China will reduce its wind power project investment in wind resource-rich areas
Considering wind power's combinatorial optimization under the help of demand side, this article pays attention to large consumers'help, power transmission and time-of-use electricity price, and studies on three wind power consumption ways' influence on the consumption. The results show that the implementation of consumption ways of demand side contributes to enlarge wind power's consumption ability. And along with further study on demand side, the consumption level will improve. In addition, the study shows that combinatorial optimization of consumption ways could further the consumption level of wind power.
Considering wind power's combinatorial optimization under the help of demand side, this article first analyzes the influence which wind electricity exerts on thermal power after wind power is linked into power grid and the influence which thermal power's participation in peak-shaving on the abandoned wind power. And the economic compensation model which is supported auxiliary service by thermal power is built. Besides, focusing on energy storage systems'effect on consumption and the two consumption ways by the existing carbon trading mechanisms, the study shows that the introduce of generation side is beneficial to solve the problem of abandoned wind power. Eventually, the paper combines energy storage system and carbon trading mechanism, and studies the abandoned wind power under their functions. The optimization results shows that combinatorial optimization way has the value to deepen wind power consumption.
Considering the combinatorial optimization between demand side and generation side, this paper first analyzes the power generation performance of thermal power for wind load under the participation of the demand side, and the results show that the participation of the demand side is conducive to optimize generating efficiency of generation side. This article further studies the level of wind power consumption under three joint optimization of demand side and generation side scenarios:the conbination of lager users and energy storage systems, the conbination of power delivery systems and energy storage systems, the conbination of TOU and carbon trading mechanism. And the results show that the combinatorial optimization between demand side and generation side consumption ways has contributed to enlarge the consumption level of wind power.
In the aspect of comprehensive assessment about choosing wind power consumption ways, integrative efficiency evaluation index system of wind power projects is built in different consumption ways from economic, environmental and social degrees. And the article employs partial fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and comprehensive evaluation method of extension nature of matter element, and uses the two methods to analyze comprehensive benefits of wind power projects under the condition of energy storage systems, outside electricity order and large consumers direct purchasing.
风电消纳是全球性的问题,西方国家均积极开展风电消纳的研究工作。在政策层面出台风电产业发展规划以及与之相适应的激励政策；在经济层面则予以优惠的电价、税收策略；在社会层面则鼓励调峰电源与风电协调调度,引导社会用电转移等；在技术层面则积极发展风机技术、风电预测技术与风电调度技术。各层面的风电消纳途径并非独立存在的一个研究点,各途径的组合可以将各个点串联成线,线与线的交叉则形成风电消纳途径优化的研究面。本文围绕风电消纳的问题,在归纳中国风电产业发展现状的基础上,重点研究了风电弃风对风电项目的经济影响,需求侧协助消纳风电的组合途径优化,发电侧协助消纳风电的组合途径优化,需求侧与发电侧联合协助风电消纳的组合途径优化以及风电消纳途径选择的综合评价。
关于弃风对风电项目的经济影响,结合不同风电资源区域在不同电价水平、不同利用小时情景下,测算了风电项目资本金利润率、动态投资回收期以及内部收益率状况。测算结果表明在当前风电弃风分布状况下风能资源丰富区域的经济效益较其它区域要低。展望未来中国将逐步收紧在风能资源丰富地区的风电项目投资。
关于需求侧协助风电消纳的组合途经优化,首先分别针对大用户协助消纳、电力外送以及分时电价三种风电消纳途径对风电消纳的影响展开研究,研究结果表明需求侧风电消纳途径的实施有助于扩大风电的消纳能力,而随着需求侧消纳途径的深化,消纳水平将进一步提高。另外,将需求侧的消纳途径进行组合优化,研究结果表明组合优化能够深化风电消纳水平。
关于发电侧协助风电消纳的组合途径优化,首先针对风电接入电网后风电对火电的发电绩效的影响以及火电参与调峰程度对风电弃风的影响进行分析,并构建了火电提供辅助服务的经济补偿模型。其次,分别针对储能系统协助消纳与碳交易机制两种风电消纳途径对风电弃风的影响展开研究,研究结果表明发电侧消纳途径的引入有助于解决风电的弃风问题。最后,对储能系统与碳交易机制进行组合,研究其共同作用下风电的弃风状况,优化结果表明发电侧组合途径具有深化风电消纳的实施价值。
关于需求侧与发电侧联合协助风电消纳的组合途径优化,首先分析了需求侧参与下火电为风电调峰的发电绩效,结果表明需求侧的参与有助于优化发电侧发电效率。进一步,分别针对大用户与储能系统,电力外送与储能系统,分时电价与碳交易机制三种需求侧与发电侧联合优化下,风电的消纳水平展开研究,优化结果表明需求侧消纳途径与发电侧消纳途径的组合有助于扩大风电的消纳水平。
关于风电消纳途径选择的综合评价,从经济效益、环境效益和社会效益三个角度出发建立了不同消纳方式下风电项目综合效益评价指标体系,并分别采用局部模糊综合评价方法、物元可拓综合评价方法对储能、外送和大用户直购电三类消纳方式下的风电项目综合效益进行算例分析。
Since2005, the wind power industry in China has expanded rapidly. China has91744.6cumulative megawatts of wind capacity by the end of2013and more than any other country in the world. Most wind power installed capacity are distributed in Northeast China, North China and Northwest China, which are far from the load center and shows the characteristics of large-scale construction. The geographic distribution characteristics of wind power influence its consumption level to some extent. In2013, the abandoned quantity of wind power electricity reached15billion kWh, losing7.5billion yuan. On the macro stuff, the severe wind power abandon condition goes against sustainable development of wind power, hinders the adjustment pace of power structure and influences low-carbon development of China's economy. On a microscopic level, this condition is bad for the economic benefit realization of wind power project and it will make power project developers hard to reclaim their investment cost.
Wind power consumption is a global issue that western countries all do reach about wind power consumption actively. At the policy level, there comes wind power industry development programs and relevant incentive policies; in the aspect of economy, favorable electricity price and tax strategy are given; at the social level, coordinating dispatch between peaking power sources and wind power is encouraged, which guides the shift of social electricity demand; at the technical level, many countries actively develop compressor blower&fan technology, wind power prediction technology and wind power dispatching technology. These aspects are not independent, and they can make different combinations to study how to optimize wind power consumption approach. This article focuses on the problem about wind power consumption, and on the basis of China's wind power industry development situation, it also highlights the abandoned wind's influence on wind power project, wind power's combinatorial optimization consumption under the help of demand side, generation side and both of them.
Considering the abandoned wind power's economic influence on wind power projects and different wind power resources under different electricity price levels and different utilization hours, this article calculates capital profit margin, dynamic investment pay-back period and internal rate of return. The results show that economic benefit in wind power resource-rich areas is lower than other areas under the present distribution condition of abandoned power. In the future, China will reduce its wind power project investment in wind resource-rich areas
Considering wind power's combinatorial optimization under the help of demand side, this article pays attention to large consumers'help, power transmission and time-of-use electricity price, and studies on three wind power consumption ways' influence on the consumption. The results show that the implementation of consumption ways of demand side contributes to enlarge wind power's consumption ability. And along with further study on demand side, the consumption level will improve. In addition, the study shows that combinatorial optimization of consumption ways could further the consumption level of wind power.
Considering wind power's combinatorial optimization under the help of demand side, this article first analyzes the influence which wind electricity exerts on thermal power after wind power is linked into power grid and the influence which thermal power's participation in peak-shaving on the abandoned wind power. And the economic compensation model which is supported auxiliary service by thermal power is built. Besides, focusing on energy storage systems'effect on consumption and the two consumption ways by the existing carbon trading mechanisms, the study shows that the introduce of generation side is beneficial to solve the problem of abandoned wind power. Eventually, the paper combines energy storage system and carbon trading mechanism, and studies the abandoned wind power under their functions. The optimization results shows that combinatorial optimization way has the value to deepen wind power consumption.
Considering the combinatorial optimization between demand side and generation side, this paper first analyzes the power generation performance of thermal power for wind load under the participation of the demand side, and the results show that the participation of the demand side is conducive to optimize generating efficiency of generation side. This article further studies the level of wind power consumption under three joint optimization of demand side and generation side scenarios:the conbination of lager users and energy storage systems, the conbination of power delivery systems and energy storage systems, the conbination of TOU and carbon trading mechanism. And the results show that the combinatorial optimization between demand side and generation side consumption ways has contributed to enlarge the consumption level of wind power.
In the aspect of comprehensive assessment about choosing wind power consumption ways, integrative efficiency evaluation index system of wind power projects is built in different consumption ways from economic, environmental and social degrees. And the article employs partial fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and comprehensive evaluation method of extension nature of matter element, and uses the two methods to analyze comprehensive benefits of wind power projects under the condition of energy storage systems, outside electricity order and large consumers direct purchasing.
引文
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