广西北部湾经济区临海工业发展研究
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摘要
随着我国西部大开发战略的深入推进,近年来国家从战略高度将广西推向了区域经济合作与对外开放的前沿。特别是广西北部湾经济区(本文仅指北海、钦州和防城港三市所在的区域,下同),是我国西部大开发唯一的沿海区域,战略地位突出,区域优势明显,正面临着前所未有的发展机遇。因此,如何尽快推进该区域临海工业的发展,即主要如何正确选择与布局该地区临海工业的主导产业,进而促进广西产业结构的调整优化,带动广西经济社会的全面发展,是一个亟待解决的现实问题。同时,从理论上系统地研究广西北部湾经济区临海工业主导产业的选择与布局,亦较薄弱。为此,论文主要针对广西北部湾经济区临海工业发展的现状和影响因素以及主导产业的选择与布局,进行深入研究。论文的主要工作及创新如下。
(1)通过阐释和归纳区域经济发展理论、产业理论、生态工业理论、可持续发展理论和科学发展观中有关主导产业选择、布局和发展的指导思想,以及通过分析主导产业选择和布局的相关理论,提出了在研究广西北部湾经济区临海工业主导产业选择和布局时,应以上述思想和理论为指南。如应借鉴比较优势基准理论,充分了解该经济区在劳动力、土地和资本等要素方面的相对优势；借鉴关联度基准理论,注重那些关联度高,特别是后向关联度高的产业；借鉴筱原两基准理论,应选择需求收入弹性大和全要素生产率上升快的产业作为主导产业。在主导产业布局时,如借鉴成本市场学派理论,应充分考虑成本和市场因素,寻找最佳区位点；借鉴点轴理论,将主导产业布局在沿海三市发展,然后通过三市之间基础设施的建设和完善,将产业向连接三市的交通线附近扩散,形成“点轴”布局模式。这些为广西北部湾经济区主导产业的选择、布局和发展指明了方向,为其实际操作提供了依据、思路和策略。
(2)定性分析了广西北部湾经济区临海工业发展的现状,理清了该区域经济发展中的优势和劣势,指明了其发展的机遇与面临的挑战。在此基础上,进一步对现状进行了实证分析和定量分析,将主成分分析与聚类分析相结合,得到了该经济区临海工业发展的影响因素及其影响程度。即通过主成分分析,从48个变量中提取了9个主成分并得到了其相对重要程度；而聚类分析得出的10大类因素涵盖了所有变量,主成分分析得到的9个主成分与聚类分析得到的10大类因素基本一致。因此,将这二者有机结合进行分析,便既能涵盖所有变量,又能了解各个主成分的重要性,从而得到了广西北部湾经济区临海工业发展的影响因素,并按重要程度依次归结为产业选择、基础设施等8大类。这既揭示了目前影响该经济区临海工业发展的症结所在,又为该经济区临海工业主导产业的选择、布局和发展提供了基础。
(3)从选择主导产业指标体系的原则出发,并依据区域主导产业的概念和特性,以主导产业选择的基准为参考,结合广西北部湾经济区的实际情况,建立了该区域临海工业主导产业选择的指标体系。通过问卷调查和统计分析,获得了该指标体系下用以进行主导产业选择决策的基础数据(即12个候选产业)；并采用基于组合赋权和PROMETHEEⅡ方法的多准则决策方法,对该12个候选产业进行主导产业选择。该方法利用基于离差最大化的组合赋权法对主观权重进行集结,既考虑了决策者的偏好,又减少了决策者的主观随意性。根据准则权系数,应用PROMETHEEⅡ方法对候选产业进行排序,以及通过设定主导产业的评判标准,便依次得到了广西北部湾经济区临海工业的6个主导产业：石化业、电力业、电子信息业、钢铁业、船舶修造业以及海洋生物业。
(4)采用区位指向分析方法,从广西北部湾经济区主导产业布局的原则和影响因素出发,根据其对产业布局影响程度的强弱和广西北部湾经济区的实际,对提出的6个主导产业进行了区位指向分析,并根据不同的主导产业所表现出的不同的区位指向和相关数据,经定性分析和定量计算,提出了6个主导产业分别在北海、钦州和防城港三市的具体布局,可为有关部门的决策提供参考。
As the Western Development Strategy of China is aggressively promoted, Guangxi Autonomous Region has recently been pushed to the frontier of regional economic cooperation and opening, especially the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone (the region in the three cities of Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang), which is the only coastal area in the Western Region. For its strategic position is prominent and its region advantages are very outstanding, it is facing an unprecedented opportunity for development. Therefore, it is a practical issue which needs to be solved urgently that how to promote the coastal industry's development quickly in this region, that is, how to choose and layout the leading industries to adjust and optimize the industrial structure of Guangxi, so as to drive its economic development and all-round social progress. At the same time, the systematic research on the leading industries selection and layout of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone coastal industry remains so weak in its theory. The status, influencing factors, selection and layout of the leading industries of the coastal industry in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone have been deeply studied in this paper. And main work and innovations are as follows.
(1) By interpreting and summarizing the regional economic development theory, industry theory, theory of ecological industry, guiding principles for leading industry selection and layout on the basis of sustainable development theory and scientific development view, analyzing the relevant theories, it was presented that doing research on the leading industries selection and layout of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone coastal industry must take the thought and theory as guide. According to the benchmark theory of comparative advantage, we should fully genned up about the comparative advantage in the labor force, land, capital and other elements in this economic zone. Referencing the correlation benchmark theory, stress should be laid on those industries which have high correlation degree, especially high degree of backward correlation. Depending on the Miyohiko shinohara's "two standards theory", the industries with high income demand elasticity and fast rise of total factor producitivity should be selected as the leading industries. When carrying out the layout of the leading industries, we should fully consider both the cost and market factors and find the best location by referencing the schools theory of cost-market. Referencing the Point-axis theory, we would distribute the leading industries in the three cities. Based on the construction and improvement of the infrastructure, the industries spread toward the traffic lines round of the three cities and the point-axis layout model forms. Those show direction for selection, layout and development of the leading industries of the coastal industry in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. And they provide the basis, thought and strategies for its practical operation.
(2) This paper has analyzed the development situation of coastal industry in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, straightened out the advantage and disadvantage in the development of the Economic Zone, and pointed out its development opportunities and challenges. On the basis, there is further empirical analysis and quantitative analysis on the status. In order to study the development influencing factors of coastal industry in the Economic Zone, the paper proposed that principal component analysis went together with cluster analysis. Through principal component analysis,9 principal components are extracted from 48 variables. Moreover,10 main factors the cluster analysis obtained have covered all the variables. At the same time, the 9 principal components derived from the principal component analysis are similar with the 10 main factors obtained by the cluster analysis. Therefore, combined the principal component analysis with the cluster analysis can not only cover all the variables, but also find out the importance of principal components. The influencing factors of coastal industry in the Economic Zone are attributed to 8 main factors, such as industry choice, infrastructure and so on. This not only reveals the sticking point of influencing the development of the coastal industry in the Economic Zone, but also points out the measures that should be taken for the future industrial development in the Economic Zone.
(3) Starting from the principle of selecting leading industry index system and based on the concept and characteristic of regional leading industry, this paper established the leading industry selection index system of the coastal industry in the zone, with benchmark of leading industry choice as a reference and combining the actual situation of the zone. The basic data (12 candidate industries) were obtained for the decision of leading industry selection under this index system by questionnaire and statistical analysis. Then, multi-criteria decision method was adopted to choose leading industry in the 12 candidate industries based on combination weighting and PROMETHEEⅡ. This method gathers the subjective weight by using combination assigning method based on maximizing deviation. It considers the preference of decision-maker, but also reduces the subjectivity and arbitrariness of decision-maker. According to the criteria weight, the paper sorted the candidate industries with PROMETHEEⅡ. On this basis of a leading industry judging standard,6 leading industries in the zone were selected. They are petrochemical, power industry, electronic information industry, steel industry, shipbuilding industry and marine bio-industry.
(4) According to the impact of the industrial distribution and the actual situation, with the principle and influencing factors of leading industries selection in the Economic Zone, the approach of location direction analysis was used to analyze the location direction of 6 leading industries. Based on the different location direction of different leading industry and related data, the layout of the 6 leading industries in Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang was obtained by qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, which can provide reference for departments concerned to formulate policies.
(1)通过阐释和归纳区域经济发展理论、产业理论、生态工业理论、可持续发展理论和科学发展观中有关主导产业选择、布局和发展的指导思想,以及通过分析主导产业选择和布局的相关理论,提出了在研究广西北部湾经济区临海工业主导产业选择和布局时,应以上述思想和理论为指南。如应借鉴比较优势基准理论,充分了解该经济区在劳动力、土地和资本等要素方面的相对优势；借鉴关联度基准理论,注重那些关联度高,特别是后向关联度高的产业；借鉴筱原两基准理论,应选择需求收入弹性大和全要素生产率上升快的产业作为主导产业。在主导产业布局时,如借鉴成本市场学派理论,应充分考虑成本和市场因素,寻找最佳区位点；借鉴点轴理论,将主导产业布局在沿海三市发展,然后通过三市之间基础设施的建设和完善,将产业向连接三市的交通线附近扩散,形成“点轴”布局模式。这些为广西北部湾经济区主导产业的选择、布局和发展指明了方向,为其实际操作提供了依据、思路和策略。
(2)定性分析了广西北部湾经济区临海工业发展的现状,理清了该区域经济发展中的优势和劣势,指明了其发展的机遇与面临的挑战。在此基础上,进一步对现状进行了实证分析和定量分析,将主成分分析与聚类分析相结合,得到了该经济区临海工业发展的影响因素及其影响程度。即通过主成分分析,从48个变量中提取了9个主成分并得到了其相对重要程度；而聚类分析得出的10大类因素涵盖了所有变量,主成分分析得到的9个主成分与聚类分析得到的10大类因素基本一致。因此,将这二者有机结合进行分析,便既能涵盖所有变量,又能了解各个主成分的重要性,从而得到了广西北部湾经济区临海工业发展的影响因素,并按重要程度依次归结为产业选择、基础设施等8大类。这既揭示了目前影响该经济区临海工业发展的症结所在,又为该经济区临海工业主导产业的选择、布局和发展提供了基础。
(3)从选择主导产业指标体系的原则出发,并依据区域主导产业的概念和特性,以主导产业选择的基准为参考,结合广西北部湾经济区的实际情况,建立了该区域临海工业主导产业选择的指标体系。通过问卷调查和统计分析,获得了该指标体系下用以进行主导产业选择决策的基础数据(即12个候选产业)；并采用基于组合赋权和PROMETHEEⅡ方法的多准则决策方法,对该12个候选产业进行主导产业选择。该方法利用基于离差最大化的组合赋权法对主观权重进行集结,既考虑了决策者的偏好,又减少了决策者的主观随意性。根据准则权系数,应用PROMETHEEⅡ方法对候选产业进行排序,以及通过设定主导产业的评判标准,便依次得到了广西北部湾经济区临海工业的6个主导产业：石化业、电力业、电子信息业、钢铁业、船舶修造业以及海洋生物业。
(4)采用区位指向分析方法,从广西北部湾经济区主导产业布局的原则和影响因素出发,根据其对产业布局影响程度的强弱和广西北部湾经济区的实际,对提出的6个主导产业进行了区位指向分析,并根据不同的主导产业所表现出的不同的区位指向和相关数据,经定性分析和定量计算,提出了6个主导产业分别在北海、钦州和防城港三市的具体布局,可为有关部门的决策提供参考。
As the Western Development Strategy of China is aggressively promoted, Guangxi Autonomous Region has recently been pushed to the frontier of regional economic cooperation and opening, especially the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone (the region in the three cities of Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang), which is the only coastal area in the Western Region. For its strategic position is prominent and its region advantages are very outstanding, it is facing an unprecedented opportunity for development. Therefore, it is a practical issue which needs to be solved urgently that how to promote the coastal industry's development quickly in this region, that is, how to choose and layout the leading industries to adjust and optimize the industrial structure of Guangxi, so as to drive its economic development and all-round social progress. At the same time, the systematic research on the leading industries selection and layout of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone coastal industry remains so weak in its theory. The status, influencing factors, selection and layout of the leading industries of the coastal industry in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone have been deeply studied in this paper. And main work and innovations are as follows.
(1) By interpreting and summarizing the regional economic development theory, industry theory, theory of ecological industry, guiding principles for leading industry selection and layout on the basis of sustainable development theory and scientific development view, analyzing the relevant theories, it was presented that doing research on the leading industries selection and layout of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone coastal industry must take the thought and theory as guide. According to the benchmark theory of comparative advantage, we should fully genned up about the comparative advantage in the labor force, land, capital and other elements in this economic zone. Referencing the correlation benchmark theory, stress should be laid on those industries which have high correlation degree, especially high degree of backward correlation. Depending on the Miyohiko shinohara's "two standards theory", the industries with high income demand elasticity and fast rise of total factor producitivity should be selected as the leading industries. When carrying out the layout of the leading industries, we should fully consider both the cost and market factors and find the best location by referencing the schools theory of cost-market. Referencing the Point-axis theory, we would distribute the leading industries in the three cities. Based on the construction and improvement of the infrastructure, the industries spread toward the traffic lines round of the three cities and the point-axis layout model forms. Those show direction for selection, layout and development of the leading industries of the coastal industry in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone. And they provide the basis, thought and strategies for its practical operation.
(2) This paper has analyzed the development situation of coastal industry in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, straightened out the advantage and disadvantage in the development of the Economic Zone, and pointed out its development opportunities and challenges. On the basis, there is further empirical analysis and quantitative analysis on the status. In order to study the development influencing factors of coastal industry in the Economic Zone, the paper proposed that principal component analysis went together with cluster analysis. Through principal component analysis,9 principal components are extracted from 48 variables. Moreover,10 main factors the cluster analysis obtained have covered all the variables. At the same time, the 9 principal components derived from the principal component analysis are similar with the 10 main factors obtained by the cluster analysis. Therefore, combined the principal component analysis with the cluster analysis can not only cover all the variables, but also find out the importance of principal components. The influencing factors of coastal industry in the Economic Zone are attributed to 8 main factors, such as industry choice, infrastructure and so on. This not only reveals the sticking point of influencing the development of the coastal industry in the Economic Zone, but also points out the measures that should be taken for the future industrial development in the Economic Zone.
(3) Starting from the principle of selecting leading industry index system and based on the concept and characteristic of regional leading industry, this paper established the leading industry selection index system of the coastal industry in the zone, with benchmark of leading industry choice as a reference and combining the actual situation of the zone. The basic data (12 candidate industries) were obtained for the decision of leading industry selection under this index system by questionnaire and statistical analysis. Then, multi-criteria decision method was adopted to choose leading industry in the 12 candidate industries based on combination weighting and PROMETHEEⅡ. This method gathers the subjective weight by using combination assigning method based on maximizing deviation. It considers the preference of decision-maker, but also reduces the subjectivity and arbitrariness of decision-maker. According to the criteria weight, the paper sorted the candidate industries with PROMETHEEⅡ. On this basis of a leading industry judging standard,6 leading industries in the zone were selected. They are petrochemical, power industry, electronic information industry, steel industry, shipbuilding industry and marine bio-industry.
(4) According to the impact of the industrial distribution and the actual situation, with the principle and influencing factors of leading industries selection in the Economic Zone, the approach of location direction analysis was used to analyze the location direction of 6 leading industries. Based on the different location direction of different leading industry and related data, the layout of the 6 leading industries in Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang was obtained by qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, which can provide reference for departments concerned to formulate policies.
引文
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