未被观测经济估算方法与应用研究
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摘要
GDP是反映国民经济总量的核心指标,在官方统计和经济分析中处于主导地位。理论上,GDP应是对所有符合国民经济核算准则的产品与服务规模的真实度量,然而诸多研究却显示,有相当一部分经济活动并未被核算到GDP指标之中。这部分应该核算而未被核算的经济被统称为“未被观测经济(Non-observedEconomy,简称NOE)”。
各国实践表明,NOE已发展成一种国际现象,它的存在给国民经济体系的各个层面带来了不可忽视的影响。鉴于此,采取科学有效的手段来治理和引导NOE是各国政府面临的大事之一,而解决这一大事的前提则是准确掌握NOE整体规模和NOE具体结构信息,这就需要借助科学有效的估算方法。19世纪中下叶以来,NOE估算方法一直是国际学术领域的研究热点之一。诸多专家和权威国际机构都在为提出合理的方法而不懈努力,也取得了显著成果。然而,一方面由于NOE呈现出隐蔽性、复杂性、区域性、交叉性等特征,使得现有的佔算方法常常顾此失彼,难以准确定位;另一方面,不同研究者出于不同的研究初衷。借助不同的方法对同一对象的估算结果常常出现较大分歧;此外,NOE整体规模估算方法研究已引起了较多关注,而对NOE分类规模估算方法的研究却相对忽视,致使NOE估算方法理论体系不甚完善。因此,对目前已有的NOE整体规模估算方法进行梳理、归类、评价,并对NOE分类规模估算方法开展研究,无疑具有重大的理论和现实意义。
中国NOE规模估算始于20世纪末。此后,尽管多种估算方法应用到NOE规模的估算实践中,但与国外研究相比,国内所运用的方法还比较落后,并缺乏中国特色的估算方法。因此,系统、深入地总结和归纳国外的NOE规模估算方法,选择可行的方法应用于中国NOE规模的估算实践中,并开展具有中国特色估算方法的研究,不仅对我国国民经济核算研究具有重大的理论意义,更是全面掌握我国国民经济现状,实现经济继续快速、健康发展的充要条件。
本着“探讨理论基础、借鉴国外经验、注重中国特色、完善方法体系”的指导思想,本文在考察NOE内涵、NOE估算方法及各类方法的典型化应用的基础上,综合运用宏观经济学、国民经济学、计量经济学等知识,遵从“明确估算对象→阐述估算方法→进行实际估算”的思路展开研究。同时,全文强调“三个研究结合”,分别是"NOE国外估算方法借鉴与中国特色研究相结合”,“NOE整体规模估算方法研究与分类规模估算方法研究相结合”,“NOE估算理论方法与实际估算分析相结合”。基于此,全文分为八章:
第一章为NOE基本理论。本章致力于明晰估算对象,解析NOE整体内涵和分类内涵,并对影响NOE产生和发展的各类因素进行分析,为后续的研究奠定了方法论基础。从对形形色色称谓、内涵及判定标准的分析出发,本章给出了立足于SNA视角的NOE定义,分析了NOE的生产范围及生产主体;同时,本章还阐述了NOE分类项——地下生产、非法生产、非正规部门生产、住户部门自身最终使用的生产、数据搜集误差而遗漏生产的统计定义,分析了各分类项在SNA中的逻辑地位;最后,本章对决定和影响NOE产生和发展的各类因素进行了详细地分析,为NOE估算方法的准确提出提供了理论依据。
第二章为国外NOE整体规模估算方法。本章致力于对目前国际上流行的NOE整体规模估算方法进行系统介绍、归类及评析。目前来看,国际上对NOE整体规模估算的流行方法主要分为两类——调查类方法和间接估算类方法。调查类方法主要包括NOE专项调查法和税收审查法两类:间接估算类方法主要包括货币测量法、收支测量法、物量投入测量法、非货币测量法、潜变量法和劳动力投入法六类。本章围绕各种方法的出处、估算思路或估算过程、应用条件及应用现状展开阐述,并详细分析了各种方法的优缺点。同时,对国际上关于各种方法的最新研究进展进行了追踪,如Bhattacharyya法、消费者支出单一方程法、消费者支出系统法、改进的KK法等。最后,本章对NOE整体规模估算方法体系进行了全面总评。
第三章为国外NOE分类规模估算方法。本章致力于对目前国际上流行的NOE分类规模估算方法进行系统地介绍、归类和评析。本章内容围绕“地下生产规模估算方法”、“非正规部门生产规模估算方法”、“非法生产规模估算方法”三个主题展开论述,对地下产品支出调查法、地下生产劳动力调查法、地下生产意见调查法、非正规部门劳动力调查法、非正规部门家庭收入与支出调查法、非正规部门企业调查法、非正规部门住户企业混合调查法、住户调查附加非正规部门企业模块调查法、多目标综合调查法等方法的设计原理、重难点、应用条件、优缺点、典型运用情况进行了详细地阐述和评价。同时,本章还以“毒品生产规模”、“卖淫服务生产规模”为例,探讨了非法生产规模估算的基本途径。国际经验表明,对NOE分类规模的估算主要借助于直接调查法,而间接估算法则并不常用。
第四章为中国NOE形成机理。本章致力于解决三个问题,分别是“对中国NOE的认识”、“中国NOE形成原因探讨”和“中国NOE形成机理探讨”。基于NOE基本理论及特殊的中国国情,我们重点阐述了NOE的中国特色,论述了中国NOE的影响因素及形成机理,为中国NOE规模估算方法的合理选择和科学构建奠定理论和现实基础。
第五章为中国NOE规模估算方法研究现状。本章围绕“中国NOE整体规模估算方法研究现状”和“中国NOE分类规模估算方法研究现状”两个主题,对国内有关NOE规模估算方法的研究现状进行了全面考察。在具体的论述过程中,我们罗列了中国NOE规模估算的各种文献,对文献中借助的估算方法追溯来源,并分析了各方法在中国应用的可行性,探讨了各学者在NOE估算方法研究领域所作的贡献。通过对目前我国NOE规模估算方法研究现状的客观评价,充分体现了国内研究与国际经验的差距,从而明确了中国NOE规模估算方法研究的改进及创新方向。
第六章为中国NOE整体规模估算方法改进与创新。本章致力于探讨适合中国国情的NOE整体规模估算方法,并对历年NOE整体规模进行估算。在估算方法的选择上,我们重点探讨了间接估算方法的原理及应用。一方面,在借鉴国外流行方法的基础上,我们着力进行了国外方法的改进和完善,使之体现“中国特色”。如通过指标的筛选和甄别,我们改进了货币需求法,拟合了中国的Tanzi模型,给出了Tanzi模型的全对数方程和半对数方程;我们分析了国民账户收支测量法在中国应用的可行性;我们首次将MIMIC模型法应用到中国的NOE规模估算实践中,并结合经济普查数据,得出了历年NOE整体规模的估算值。另一方面,根据中国NOE的形成机理、运行特征、与官方经济的关系及中国统计数据的基础条件,我们提出了若干种创新方法。如根据货币供给的“中国之谜”,开创性地提出了从超额货币量分解出NOE的两种思路,提出了“超额货币分解法”,得到了我国历年NOE整体规模的估算;基于全社会资金流动理论,提出了从住户部门资金收支差异中估算NOE整体规模的思路,提出了“住户部门资金收支测量法”,并进行了实际估算。同时,本章对借助不同方法得到的估算结果进行了对比和分析。
第七章为中国NOE分类规模估算方法创新。在这一章我们以非正规部门未被观测生产为例,对非正规部门未被观测生产规模的估算方法进行了探讨。本章始于基本范畴的界定,在分析了非正规部门未被观测生产的统计定义、判断标准及生产边界之后,我们一方面结合中国现行的统计调查体系和非正规部门的经济特征,重点探讨了借助直接调查法来估算我国非正规部门未被观测生产规模的可行性,给出了以人口普查为依托的非正规部门未被观测生产规模非专项调查、以经济普查为依托的非正规部门未被观测生产规模非专项调查、基于居民支出角度调查非正规部门未被观测生产规模的设计思路。另一方面,我们通过对已有基础数据的种类、性质、来源及数据间关系的细致考察,提出了非正规部门未被观测生产规模的两种间接估算法——数据比较法和劳动力投入分析法。最后,出于数据易获得性考虑,本章以浙江省为例,进行了非正规部门未被观测生产规模的实际估算。
第八章为研究总结。本章概括了全文得出的结论,从数据和方法两方面对全文的不足进行了总结,并探讨了后续研究的主要方向。
GDP is a core index of reflecting total economic output, which plays a predominant position in authority's statistics and economy analysis. Theoretically, GDP is supposed to measure correctly of products and service scale, which are conformed to the accounting principles of national economy. However, according to some researches, quite a few of the economic activities are not included in the index of GDP. These economic activities, which are supposed to be examined, are called "Non-observed Economy" (shortly, NOE).
Some country's practices shows that the NOE has already developed into a kind of international phenomenon. The existence of it has brought unavoidable influence for each aspect of the national economy system. Owing to this, adopting a scientific and effective way to manage the phenomenon of NOE is regarded as one of the important event for the governments of all countries. The premise of solving the problem is having a good grasp of the whole scale of NOE and its concrete constructive information, which needs the aid of the scientific estimation method.Since the middle and late 19~(th) century, estimation method of NOE has become one of the research centres in the realm of the international academe. Many experts and international authorities have made efforts for putting forward of the reasonable method, which have achieved the remarkable results. However, on one hand, because of the NOE's characters, such as concealment, complexity, regionalism, intersection, etc., the method we are using now are always unable to attend to everything at the same time and hard to fix an accurate position. On the other hand, because of the different research original intention, estimating the same object with different methods always appears the big divergence. In addition, the estimation of the entire scale has caused more attention, however, the research of the estimation methods of NOE categorized scale has been neglected relatively, which causes the imperfect of the theory system of the NOE estimation methods. Therefore, to comb, categorize, evaluate the estimation methods of NOE and study on the estimation methods of categorized scale of NOE , definitely, have significant practical and theorized meaning.
Chinese NOE estimation started at the end of the 20~(th) century. Henceforth, although varieties of methods are applied to the practice of Chinese NOE estimation, yet compare to the research abroad, the methods we are using are comparatively backward and lack of the Chinese characteristics. Therefore, to sum up and conclude the foreign methods systematically and thoroughly, study on the methods with the Chinese characteristics , definitely, is the most important condition of realizing the continuously fast and healthy development of the Chinese economy.
This paper regards discussing the theoretical base, commenting on the foreign experience, paying attention to the Chinese characteristics and improving the system of methods as guiding idea. This paper makes full use of the knowledge of macroeconomics, national economics, econometrics, etc., on the base of discussing the connotation, estimating theory, the experiential method and their typical application, the paper conforms to the research idea of confirming the estimating object, explaining the method and making the practical estimation .Meanwhile, this paper emphasizes "the three study combinations", that is combining study estimation methods abroad with Chinese characteristics, combining the estimation methods of NOE entire scale with the categorized scale, and combining the theoretical estimation method with the practical estimation analysis.
Chapter 1 is the study on NOE's basic theory. This chapter is devoted to clarifying the estimating object, analyzing the entire and categorized connotation of NOE and the factors which affect the origination and development of NOE and also establishing the methodology foundation for the follow up study. From the analyzing of the varieties of the designations, connotations and the standard of judging, this chapter gives the definition of NOE which is based on the angle of SNA and analyzes the producing scope and subject. Meanwhile, this chapter also gives the explanations of NOE classification:the statistics definition of Underground Production, Illegal Production, Informal Sector Production, Household Production for Own Final Use, Production Missed Due to Deficiencies in Data Collection Programme. And this chapter also analyzes the logical position in SNA of each NOE classification. Finally, this chapter analyzes the factors which determine and affect the origination and development of NOE in detail and provides the theory foundation of putting forward correctly of estimation methods.
Chapter 2 is about NOE entire scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of NOE entire scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world. Nowadays, the popular methods of the NOE entire scale estimating in the world include mainly in two categories: investigating method and indirect estimation methods. The former mainly divides into six categories: the currency measuring method, revenue and expenditure measuring method, non-currency measuring method and the labour investing method. This chapter gives the elaboration of the source, thought, process, applicating condition and applicating present situation of the above six methods, combining the analysis of each method's merit and defect in detail. Meanwhile, this chapter also tracks the latest research in the world concerning each method, such as the method of Bhattacharyya, consumers expenditure single formula method, consumers expenditure systematic method, the modified KK method etc.. Finally, this chapter gives a summary of the NOE entire scale method systematically.
Chapter 3 is about the NOE categorized scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of the NOE categorized scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world.. This chapter discusses the following three themes: the estimation method of the secret producing scale, irregular section producing scale and illegal producing scale. At the same time, this chapter gives detailed discussion and comments on the designing principle, the important and difficult points, the applicative condition, merits and defect, the typical application situation of the following investigating methods: the underground producing investigating method of the products expenditure, labour and the suggestion, the investigating method of the labour, the family income and expenditure, the enterprise, the mixture of the inhabitant and the enterprise in the irregular sections, the investigating method combining the inhabitants' investigation with module. Meanwhile, this chapter also takes "the scale of drug producing" and "the scale of sex service" as examples to discuss the basic way of the illegal producing scale estimation. The international experience shows that the direct investigating method is mainly used in the estimation of NOE categorized scale instead of the indirect way.
Chapter 4 is about the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE. From this chapter, we begin to observe and study the NOE situation in China. The contents of the chapter four include the following there parts: "the knowledge of the Chinese NOE", "the factors which determine the development of Chinese NOE", and "the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE". On the ground of the basic theory of the NOE estimation and the special Chinese background, we mainly discuss the Chinese characteristics of NOE and analyze the NOE's logical position in Chinese SNA. And then this chapter gives the discussion of the elements that influence the Chinese NOE and the formable mechanism, looking forward to establishing the theoretical and practical basic for the reasonable choice and scientific establishment of the Chinese NOE estimation method.
Chapter 5 is about the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation method. This chapter gives a complete observation and study on the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation, in accordance with 2 themes: "the current situation of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation" and "the current situation of Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation". In the process of discussion, this chapter gives a list of varieties of documents about the Chinese NOE estimation and the contribution that the scholars made in this field. The objective comment on the current situation of Chinese NOE scale estimation shows that there exists a gap between the current level and the international experience. And set the direction of improving and innovating clearly.
Chapter 6 is the amelioration and innovative study on Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method. This chapter is devoted to the discussion of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method which is suitable for Chinese characteristics and estimating the NOE entire scale of the passing years. On one hand, in regards of the choice of the estimation method, we mainly research the amelioration and the application of foreign method for the sake of embodying the "Chinese characteristic". For example, through the selection and distinguishing of the index, we have ameliorated the method of currency demand, worked out the Chinese Tanzi model and its full logarithm and half logarithm formula. We analyze the feasibility of the method of accounts' income and expenditure applied in China. And also apply the method of MIMIC model to the practice of Chinese NOE scale estimation for the first time, and get the estimating result of the NOE entire scale in the past years. On the other, we put forward several innovative methods according to the formable mechanism, operative feature, the relationship with the official economy and the basic condition of Chinese statistics data of Chinese NOE. For example, we put forward 2 ideas of isolating NOE from the extra amount of currency of the past years according to "the Chinese riddle", and get the result that the scale of NOE in the past years is on the ground of the method of the extra currency isolation. On the ground of the theory of social capital flow, we put forward the idea of estimating the NOE entire scale through the capital expenditure from the difference of household income and expenditure and estimate it in practical. Meanwhile, this chapter also compare and analyze the estimating result of different methods.
Chapter 7 is the innovative study on Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation method. In this chapter, we take the unobserved production in informal sector as an example, to discuss the estimation method of it. This chapter begins with the distinction of the basic category. After analyzing the statistics definition of the unobserved production in informal sector, the standards of judging and the producing boundary, on one hand, we mainly discuss the feasibility of using the direct investigating method to estimate the scale of unobserved production in informal sector, combining the Chinese investigative statistics system in force and the economic feature in informal sector. This chapter gives the designing ideas of the investigation of the scale of unobserved production in informal sector through unparticular investigation in support of the population and economy general survey, and the angle of the residents' expenditure. On the other, we put forward 2 indirect estimation methods for the scale of unobserved production in informal sector—data comparison and the analysis of labour invest through the observation and study of the category, nature, source of the existed basic data. Finally, this chapter takes Zhejiang province as an example, and makes the practical estimation of the unobserved production in informal sector.
Chapter 8 is the summary. In this chapter, we generalize the conclutions of the study, and summarize the deficiency from data and methods. Meanwhile, we discuss the leading way of the research following.
各国实践表明,NOE已发展成一种国际现象,它的存在给国民经济体系的各个层面带来了不可忽视的影响。鉴于此,采取科学有效的手段来治理和引导NOE是各国政府面临的大事之一,而解决这一大事的前提则是准确掌握NOE整体规模和NOE具体结构信息,这就需要借助科学有效的估算方法。19世纪中下叶以来,NOE估算方法一直是国际学术领域的研究热点之一。诸多专家和权威国际机构都在为提出合理的方法而不懈努力,也取得了显著成果。然而,一方面由于NOE呈现出隐蔽性、复杂性、区域性、交叉性等特征,使得现有的佔算方法常常顾此失彼,难以准确定位;另一方面,不同研究者出于不同的研究初衷。借助不同的方法对同一对象的估算结果常常出现较大分歧;此外,NOE整体规模估算方法研究已引起了较多关注,而对NOE分类规模估算方法的研究却相对忽视,致使NOE估算方法理论体系不甚完善。因此,对目前已有的NOE整体规模估算方法进行梳理、归类、评价,并对NOE分类规模估算方法开展研究,无疑具有重大的理论和现实意义。
中国NOE规模估算始于20世纪末。此后,尽管多种估算方法应用到NOE规模的估算实践中,但与国外研究相比,国内所运用的方法还比较落后,并缺乏中国特色的估算方法。因此,系统、深入地总结和归纳国外的NOE规模估算方法,选择可行的方法应用于中国NOE规模的估算实践中,并开展具有中国特色估算方法的研究,不仅对我国国民经济核算研究具有重大的理论意义,更是全面掌握我国国民经济现状,实现经济继续快速、健康发展的充要条件。
本着“探讨理论基础、借鉴国外经验、注重中国特色、完善方法体系”的指导思想,本文在考察NOE内涵、NOE估算方法及各类方法的典型化应用的基础上,综合运用宏观经济学、国民经济学、计量经济学等知识,遵从“明确估算对象→阐述估算方法→进行实际估算”的思路展开研究。同时,全文强调“三个研究结合”,分别是"NOE国外估算方法借鉴与中国特色研究相结合”,“NOE整体规模估算方法研究与分类规模估算方法研究相结合”,“NOE估算理论方法与实际估算分析相结合”。基于此,全文分为八章:
第一章为NOE基本理论。本章致力于明晰估算对象,解析NOE整体内涵和分类内涵,并对影响NOE产生和发展的各类因素进行分析,为后续的研究奠定了方法论基础。从对形形色色称谓、内涵及判定标准的分析出发,本章给出了立足于SNA视角的NOE定义,分析了NOE的生产范围及生产主体;同时,本章还阐述了NOE分类项——地下生产、非法生产、非正规部门生产、住户部门自身最终使用的生产、数据搜集误差而遗漏生产的统计定义,分析了各分类项在SNA中的逻辑地位;最后,本章对决定和影响NOE产生和发展的各类因素进行了详细地分析,为NOE估算方法的准确提出提供了理论依据。
第二章为国外NOE整体规模估算方法。本章致力于对目前国际上流行的NOE整体规模估算方法进行系统介绍、归类及评析。目前来看,国际上对NOE整体规模估算的流行方法主要分为两类——调查类方法和间接估算类方法。调查类方法主要包括NOE专项调查法和税收审查法两类:间接估算类方法主要包括货币测量法、收支测量法、物量投入测量法、非货币测量法、潜变量法和劳动力投入法六类。本章围绕各种方法的出处、估算思路或估算过程、应用条件及应用现状展开阐述,并详细分析了各种方法的优缺点。同时,对国际上关于各种方法的最新研究进展进行了追踪,如Bhattacharyya法、消费者支出单一方程法、消费者支出系统法、改进的KK法等。最后,本章对NOE整体规模估算方法体系进行了全面总评。
第三章为国外NOE分类规模估算方法。本章致力于对目前国际上流行的NOE分类规模估算方法进行系统地介绍、归类和评析。本章内容围绕“地下生产规模估算方法”、“非正规部门生产规模估算方法”、“非法生产规模估算方法”三个主题展开论述,对地下产品支出调查法、地下生产劳动力调查法、地下生产意见调查法、非正规部门劳动力调查法、非正规部门家庭收入与支出调查法、非正规部门企业调查法、非正规部门住户企业混合调查法、住户调查附加非正规部门企业模块调查法、多目标综合调查法等方法的设计原理、重难点、应用条件、优缺点、典型运用情况进行了详细地阐述和评价。同时,本章还以“毒品生产规模”、“卖淫服务生产规模”为例,探讨了非法生产规模估算的基本途径。国际经验表明,对NOE分类规模的估算主要借助于直接调查法,而间接估算法则并不常用。
第四章为中国NOE形成机理。本章致力于解决三个问题,分别是“对中国NOE的认识”、“中国NOE形成原因探讨”和“中国NOE形成机理探讨”。基于NOE基本理论及特殊的中国国情,我们重点阐述了NOE的中国特色,论述了中国NOE的影响因素及形成机理,为中国NOE规模估算方法的合理选择和科学构建奠定理论和现实基础。
第五章为中国NOE规模估算方法研究现状。本章围绕“中国NOE整体规模估算方法研究现状”和“中国NOE分类规模估算方法研究现状”两个主题,对国内有关NOE规模估算方法的研究现状进行了全面考察。在具体的论述过程中,我们罗列了中国NOE规模估算的各种文献,对文献中借助的估算方法追溯来源,并分析了各方法在中国应用的可行性,探讨了各学者在NOE估算方法研究领域所作的贡献。通过对目前我国NOE规模估算方法研究现状的客观评价,充分体现了国内研究与国际经验的差距,从而明确了中国NOE规模估算方法研究的改进及创新方向。
第六章为中国NOE整体规模估算方法改进与创新。本章致力于探讨适合中国国情的NOE整体规模估算方法,并对历年NOE整体规模进行估算。在估算方法的选择上,我们重点探讨了间接估算方法的原理及应用。一方面,在借鉴国外流行方法的基础上,我们着力进行了国外方法的改进和完善,使之体现“中国特色”。如通过指标的筛选和甄别,我们改进了货币需求法,拟合了中国的Tanzi模型,给出了Tanzi模型的全对数方程和半对数方程;我们分析了国民账户收支测量法在中国应用的可行性;我们首次将MIMIC模型法应用到中国的NOE规模估算实践中,并结合经济普查数据,得出了历年NOE整体规模的估算值。另一方面,根据中国NOE的形成机理、运行特征、与官方经济的关系及中国统计数据的基础条件,我们提出了若干种创新方法。如根据货币供给的“中国之谜”,开创性地提出了从超额货币量分解出NOE的两种思路,提出了“超额货币分解法”,得到了我国历年NOE整体规模的估算;基于全社会资金流动理论,提出了从住户部门资金收支差异中估算NOE整体规模的思路,提出了“住户部门资金收支测量法”,并进行了实际估算。同时,本章对借助不同方法得到的估算结果进行了对比和分析。
第七章为中国NOE分类规模估算方法创新。在这一章我们以非正规部门未被观测生产为例,对非正规部门未被观测生产规模的估算方法进行了探讨。本章始于基本范畴的界定,在分析了非正规部门未被观测生产的统计定义、判断标准及生产边界之后,我们一方面结合中国现行的统计调查体系和非正规部门的经济特征,重点探讨了借助直接调查法来估算我国非正规部门未被观测生产规模的可行性,给出了以人口普查为依托的非正规部门未被观测生产规模非专项调查、以经济普查为依托的非正规部门未被观测生产规模非专项调查、基于居民支出角度调查非正规部门未被观测生产规模的设计思路。另一方面,我们通过对已有基础数据的种类、性质、来源及数据间关系的细致考察,提出了非正规部门未被观测生产规模的两种间接估算法——数据比较法和劳动力投入分析法。最后,出于数据易获得性考虑,本章以浙江省为例,进行了非正规部门未被观测生产规模的实际估算。
第八章为研究总结。本章概括了全文得出的结论,从数据和方法两方面对全文的不足进行了总结,并探讨了后续研究的主要方向。
GDP is a core index of reflecting total economic output, which plays a predominant position in authority's statistics and economy analysis. Theoretically, GDP is supposed to measure correctly of products and service scale, which are conformed to the accounting principles of national economy. However, according to some researches, quite a few of the economic activities are not included in the index of GDP. These economic activities, which are supposed to be examined, are called "Non-observed Economy" (shortly, NOE).
Some country's practices shows that the NOE has already developed into a kind of international phenomenon. The existence of it has brought unavoidable influence for each aspect of the national economy system. Owing to this, adopting a scientific and effective way to manage the phenomenon of NOE is regarded as one of the important event for the governments of all countries. The premise of solving the problem is having a good grasp of the whole scale of NOE and its concrete constructive information, which needs the aid of the scientific estimation method.Since the middle and late 19~(th) century, estimation method of NOE has become one of the research centres in the realm of the international academe. Many experts and international authorities have made efforts for putting forward of the reasonable method, which have achieved the remarkable results. However, on one hand, because of the NOE's characters, such as concealment, complexity, regionalism, intersection, etc., the method we are using now are always unable to attend to everything at the same time and hard to fix an accurate position. On the other hand, because of the different research original intention, estimating the same object with different methods always appears the big divergence. In addition, the estimation of the entire scale has caused more attention, however, the research of the estimation methods of NOE categorized scale has been neglected relatively, which causes the imperfect of the theory system of the NOE estimation methods. Therefore, to comb, categorize, evaluate the estimation methods of NOE and study on the estimation methods of categorized scale of NOE , definitely, have significant practical and theorized meaning.
Chinese NOE estimation started at the end of the 20~(th) century. Henceforth, although varieties of methods are applied to the practice of Chinese NOE estimation, yet compare to the research abroad, the methods we are using are comparatively backward and lack of the Chinese characteristics. Therefore, to sum up and conclude the foreign methods systematically and thoroughly, study on the methods with the Chinese characteristics , definitely, is the most important condition of realizing the continuously fast and healthy development of the Chinese economy.
This paper regards discussing the theoretical base, commenting on the foreign experience, paying attention to the Chinese characteristics and improving the system of methods as guiding idea. This paper makes full use of the knowledge of macroeconomics, national economics, econometrics, etc., on the base of discussing the connotation, estimating theory, the experiential method and their typical application, the paper conforms to the research idea of confirming the estimating object, explaining the method and making the practical estimation .Meanwhile, this paper emphasizes "the three study combinations", that is combining study estimation methods abroad with Chinese characteristics, combining the estimation methods of NOE entire scale with the categorized scale, and combining the theoretical estimation method with the practical estimation analysis.
Chapter 1 is the study on NOE's basic theory. This chapter is devoted to clarifying the estimating object, analyzing the entire and categorized connotation of NOE and the factors which affect the origination and development of NOE and also establishing the methodology foundation for the follow up study. From the analyzing of the varieties of the designations, connotations and the standard of judging, this chapter gives the definition of NOE which is based on the angle of SNA and analyzes the producing scope and subject. Meanwhile, this chapter also gives the explanations of NOE classification:the statistics definition of Underground Production, Illegal Production, Informal Sector Production, Household Production for Own Final Use, Production Missed Due to Deficiencies in Data Collection Programme. And this chapter also analyzes the logical position in SNA of each NOE classification. Finally, this chapter analyzes the factors which determine and affect the origination and development of NOE in detail and provides the theory foundation of putting forward correctly of estimation methods.
Chapter 2 is about NOE entire scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of NOE entire scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world. Nowadays, the popular methods of the NOE entire scale estimating in the world include mainly in two categories: investigating method and indirect estimation methods. The former mainly divides into six categories: the currency measuring method, revenue and expenditure measuring method, non-currency measuring method and the labour investing method. This chapter gives the elaboration of the source, thought, process, applicating condition and applicating present situation of the above six methods, combining the analysis of each method's merit and defect in detail. Meanwhile, this chapter also tracks the latest research in the world concerning each method, such as the method of Bhattacharyya, consumers expenditure single formula method, consumers expenditure systematic method, the modified KK method etc.. Finally, this chapter gives a summary of the NOE entire scale method systematically.
Chapter 3 is about the NOE categorized scale estimation methods abroad. This chapter is devoted to systematic introduction, classification and evaluation of the NOE categorized scale estimation methods which are popular presently in the world.. This chapter discusses the following three themes: the estimation method of the secret producing scale, irregular section producing scale and illegal producing scale. At the same time, this chapter gives detailed discussion and comments on the designing principle, the important and difficult points, the applicative condition, merits and defect, the typical application situation of the following investigating methods: the underground producing investigating method of the products expenditure, labour and the suggestion, the investigating method of the labour, the family income and expenditure, the enterprise, the mixture of the inhabitant and the enterprise in the irregular sections, the investigating method combining the inhabitants' investigation with module. Meanwhile, this chapter also takes "the scale of drug producing" and "the scale of sex service" as examples to discuss the basic way of the illegal producing scale estimation. The international experience shows that the direct investigating method is mainly used in the estimation of NOE categorized scale instead of the indirect way.
Chapter 4 is about the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE. From this chapter, we begin to observe and study the NOE situation in China. The contents of the chapter four include the following there parts: "the knowledge of the Chinese NOE", "the factors which determine the development of Chinese NOE", and "the formable mechanism of Chinese NOE". On the ground of the basic theory of the NOE estimation and the special Chinese background, we mainly discuss the Chinese characteristics of NOE and analyze the NOE's logical position in Chinese SNA. And then this chapter gives the discussion of the elements that influence the Chinese NOE and the formable mechanism, looking forward to establishing the theoretical and practical basic for the reasonable choice and scientific establishment of the Chinese NOE estimation method.
Chapter 5 is about the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation method. This chapter gives a complete observation and study on the current situation of the Chinese NOE scale estimation, in accordance with 2 themes: "the current situation of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation" and "the current situation of Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation". In the process of discussion, this chapter gives a list of varieties of documents about the Chinese NOE estimation and the contribution that the scholars made in this field. The objective comment on the current situation of Chinese NOE scale estimation shows that there exists a gap between the current level and the international experience. And set the direction of improving and innovating clearly.
Chapter 6 is the amelioration and innovative study on Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method. This chapter is devoted to the discussion of Chinese NOE entire scale estimation method which is suitable for Chinese characteristics and estimating the NOE entire scale of the passing years. On one hand, in regards of the choice of the estimation method, we mainly research the amelioration and the application of foreign method for the sake of embodying the "Chinese characteristic". For example, through the selection and distinguishing of the index, we have ameliorated the method of currency demand, worked out the Chinese Tanzi model and its full logarithm and half logarithm formula. We analyze the feasibility of the method of accounts' income and expenditure applied in China. And also apply the method of MIMIC model to the practice of Chinese NOE scale estimation for the first time, and get the estimating result of the NOE entire scale in the past years. On the other, we put forward several innovative methods according to the formable mechanism, operative feature, the relationship with the official economy and the basic condition of Chinese statistics data of Chinese NOE. For example, we put forward 2 ideas of isolating NOE from the extra amount of currency of the past years according to "the Chinese riddle", and get the result that the scale of NOE in the past years is on the ground of the method of the extra currency isolation. On the ground of the theory of social capital flow, we put forward the idea of estimating the NOE entire scale through the capital expenditure from the difference of household income and expenditure and estimate it in practical. Meanwhile, this chapter also compare and analyze the estimating result of different methods.
Chapter 7 is the innovative study on Chinese NOE categorized scale estimation method. In this chapter, we take the unobserved production in informal sector as an example, to discuss the estimation method of it. This chapter begins with the distinction of the basic category. After analyzing the statistics definition of the unobserved production in informal sector, the standards of judging and the producing boundary, on one hand, we mainly discuss the feasibility of using the direct investigating method to estimate the scale of unobserved production in informal sector, combining the Chinese investigative statistics system in force and the economic feature in informal sector. This chapter gives the designing ideas of the investigation of the scale of unobserved production in informal sector through unparticular investigation in support of the population and economy general survey, and the angle of the residents' expenditure. On the other, we put forward 2 indirect estimation methods for the scale of unobserved production in informal sector—data comparison and the analysis of labour invest through the observation and study of the category, nature, source of the existed basic data. Finally, this chapter takes Zhejiang province as an example, and makes the practical estimation of the unobserved production in informal sector.
Chapter 8 is the summary. In this chapter, we generalize the conclutions of the study, and summarize the deficiency from data and methods. Meanwhile, we discuss the leading way of the research following.
引文
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[3]赫尔南多·德.索托,另一条道路(秘鲁)[M],华夏出版社,2007年2月。
[1]清廉指数是一种复合民意调查,反映的仅仅是商人或国情分析研究专家对一个国家腐败情势的观感,他们包括本国的或外国派驻人员,该指数在1-10之间度量,数值越大表示腐败程度越轻。值得一提的是,透明国际清廉指数呈现的只是一种快照似的主观感受,而无法反映一种跨年的变化趋势。作为弥补,Johann Graf Lambsdorf提供了一个时间向度的分析方法,具体内容可参见Transparency International,2005,"Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index"[M],pp.3-8.
[2]Johnson,Simon,Kaufmann,Daniel and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton,1998,"Corruption,public finances and theunofficial economy"[.I],discussion paper,Washington,D.C.,The World Bank.
[3]Hindriks,J.,Muthoo,A..,Keen,M.,1999,"Corruption,extortion and evasion"[J],Journal of Public Economics,74,pp.395-430.
[4]Choi,J.,Thum,M.,2004,"Corruption and the shadow economy"[J],International Economic Review,12/4,pp.308-342.
[5]Dreher,Axel,Christos Kotsogiannis and Steve McCorriston,2005,"Corruption around the World Evidence from a Structural Model"[M],University of Konstanz and University of Exeter mimeo.Dreher,Axel and Lars-H.R.Siemers,2005,"The Intriguing Nexus Between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions"[J],KOF Working Paper,113,Swiss Federal Institute of Technology(ETH Zurich).
[1]Tanzi,V.,1999,"Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],The Economic Journal,109/456,pp.338-340.
[2]Schneider,F.,Enste,D.H.,2000,"Shadow economies:size,causes and consequences"[J],Journal of Economic Literature,38,pp.77-114.
[3]Dell'Anno,Roberto,Helen Solomon,Offiong,2006,"Shadow economy and unemployment rate in USA:is there a structural relationship? An empirical analysis"[C],For the Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society,Finland,April 20-23.
[1]Giles,D.E.A.,Tedds,L.M.,2002,"Taxes and the Canadian Underground Economy"[J],Canadian Tax paper,p.106.
[2]有关经济增长串和NOE关系的探讨可详见Dell′Anno,R.and Schneider,F.,2003,"The Shadow Economy of Italy and other OECD Countries:What do we know?"[J],Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice /Economia delle scelte pubbliche,2/3,pp.97-120.
[3]Rosser,J.,Barkley,Jr.,Marina V.Rosser,Ehsan Ahmed.,2000,"Income inequality and the informal economy in transition economies"[J],Journal of Comparative Economics,28,pp.156-171.
[4]Rosser,J.,Barkley,Jr.,Marina V.Rosser,Ehsan Ahmed.,2003,"Multiple unofficial economy equilibria and income distribution dynamics in systemic transition"[J],Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,25,pp.425-447.
[1]Smith,P.M.,1997,"'Assessing the size of the underground economy:the Statistics Canada perspective"[J]//in Lippert,O.and Walker,M.,"The Underground Economy:Global Evidences of its Size and Impact"[M],Vancouver,B.C.,The Frazer Institute,pp.11-36.
[2]Lucian-Liviu Albu,Mariana Nicolae,2001,"Use of Households Survey Data to Estimate the Size of the Informal Economy in Romania"[J]//,in United Nations Economic Commission For Europe(eds.),2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices"[M],United Nations,Geneva.
[3]isachsen,Arne J.,Klovland,Jan and Steinar Strom,1982,"The hidden economy in Norway"[J]//,in Tanzi,V.(eds.),"The underground economy in the United States and Abroad",Heath,Lexington,pp.209-231.lsachsen,Arne J.and Steinar Strom,1985,"The size and growth of the hidden economy in Norway"[J],Review of Income and Wealth,31/1,pp.21-38.
[4]Mogensen,Gunnar V.,Kvist,Hans K.,Kormendi,Eszter,Soren Pedersen,1995,"The shadow economy in Denmark 1994:Measurement and results"[J],Study,3,The Rockwool Foundation Research Unit,Copenhagen.
[5]Pedersen,Soren,2003,"The Shadow Economy in Germany,Great Britain and Scandinavia:A Measurement Based on Questionnaire Service"[J],Study,10,The Rockwoll Foundation Research Unit,Copenhagen.
[6]所谓敏感性间题,是指涉及个人或团体的隐私和利益而不便向外界透露的问题。如“你是否从事非法活动?”、“你的生产活动是否偷税漏税?”、“你是否从事非正规生产活动?”
[1]Warner,S.,1965,"Randomized Response..A Survey Technique for Eliminating Evasive Answer Bias"[J],Journal of the American Statistical Assoctation,60,pp.63-69.
[2]Horvitz,D.B.Shah,and Simmons,W.,1967,"The unrelated question randomized response model"[C],Social Statistics Section Proceedings of the American Statistical Association,pp.65-72.
[1]IRS,1979,"Estimates of Income Unreported on Individual Tax Reforms"[J],Internal revenue service,U.S.Department of the Treasury,Washington D.C.
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[1]Schneider,Friedrich,Enste,Dominik,1999,"Shadow Economies Around The World-Size,Causes,and Consequences"[J],Working Paper,196,CESifo.
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[1]Schneider,Friedrich and Dominik Enste,1999,"Shadow Economies Around The World-Size,Causes,and Consequences"[J],Working Paper,196,CESifo.
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[1]Hill,Roderick and Muhammed Kabir,1996,"Tax rates,the tax mix,and the growth of the underground economy in Canada:What can we infer?"[J],Canadian Tax Journal/Revue Fiscale Canadienne,44/6,pp.1552-1583.
[2]Klovland,Jan,1984,"Tax evasion and the demand for currency in Norway and Sweden:Is there a hidden relationship?"[J],Scandinavian Journal of Economics,86/4,pp.423-439.
[3]Ahumada,H.,Alvaredo,F.,Canavese A.,Panla,C.,2004,"The demand for currency approach and the size of the shadow economy:A critical assessment"[J],Discussion Paper,DeltaEcole.
[4]Thomas,1988,"The politics of the black economy"[J],Work,Employment & Society,2/2,pp.169-190.
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[7]Thomas,J.,1999,"Quantifying the black economy:'measurement without theory',yet again?"[J],Economic Journal,109,pp.381-389.
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[2]Feige,E.L.,1989,"The underground economy,tax evasion and information distortion"[M],Cambridge University Press,pp.13-56.
[1]Feige,E.L.,1989,"The Meaning and Measurement of the Underground Economy"[J]//,in Feige(eds),1989,"The Underground Economies,Tax Evasion and Information Distortion"[M],Cambridge,New York,Melbourne,Cambridge University Press,pp.13-56.
[2]Schneider,Friedrich,Enste,Dominik,1999,"Shadow Economies Around The World -Size,Causes and Consequences"[J],Working Paper,196,CESifo.
[1]Tanzi,V.,1983,"The Underground Economy in the United States:Annual Estimates,1930-1980"[J],Staff Papers,International Monetary Fund,pp.283-305.
[2]Bhattacharyya,D.K.,1990,"An econometric method of estimating the 'hidden economy',United Kingdom (1960-1984):estimates and tests"[J],Economic Journal,100,pp.703-717.
[1]Edgars Brekis,2004,"An Econometrical Method of Estimating The Size of Shadow Economy"[C],A paper submitted for the International Workshop,"Lithuania Nordic Research Networking in Social Sciences 2003-2004",2004.
[1]Thomas,J.,1999,"Quantifying the black economy:'measurement without theory',yet again?"[J],Economic Journal,109,pp.381-389.
[1]MacAfee,Kerrick,1980,"A Glimpse of the hidden economy in the national accounts"[J],Economic Trends,136,pp.81-87.
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[1]Thomas J.,1999,"Quantifying the black economy:'measurement without theory' yet again?"[J],Economic Journal,109,pp.381-389.
[2]Tanzi,V.,1999,"Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],Economic Journal,109,pp.338-347.
[3]Schneider,Friedrich and Dominik Enste,1999,"Shadow Economies Around The World - Size,Causes,and Consequences"[J],Working Paper,196,CESifo.
[4]Langfeldt,Enno,1984,"The Unobserved Economy in the Federal Republic of Germany"[J]//,in Edgar L.Feige(eda.),"The Unobserved Economy"[M],Cambridge,Cambridge University Press,pp.236-260.
[5]Ethier,Mireille,1985,"The Underground Economy:A Review of the Economic Literature and New Estimates for Canada"[J]//,in Francois Vaillancourt(eds.),"Income Distribution and Economic Security in Canada"[M],University of Toronto Press,pp.77-109.
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[1]Dilnot,A.and Morris,C.N.,1981,"What do we know about the black economy ?"[J],Fiscal Studies,2/1,pp.58-73.
[2]Schneider,Friedrich,Enste,Dominik,1996,"Shadow Economies Around The World- Size,Causes,and Consequences"[J],Working Paper,196,CESifo.
[3]Paglin,Morton,1994,"The Underground Economy,New Estimates form Household Income and Expenditure Surveys"[J],The Yale Law Journal,103/8,pp.2157-2177.
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[1]Lyssiotou,P.,Pashardes,P.,and Stengos,T.,2004,"Estimates of the black economy based on consumer demand approaches"[J],Economic Journal,114,pp.622-640.
[1]Pissarides,C.and Weber,G.,1989,"An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy"[J],Journal of Public Economics,39/1,pp.17-32.
[1]Johnson,S.D.,Kaufmann,Shleifer,A..,1997,"The Unofficial Economy in Transition"[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2,pp.159-221.
[2]Johnson,S.D.,Kaufmann,Zoido-Lobaton,P.,1998,"Regulatory Discretion and the Unofficial Economy"[J],American Economic Review,88/2,pp.387-392.
[3]Friedman,E.,Johnson,S.,Kaufmann,D.,Zoido-Lobaton,P.,2000,"Dodging the Grabbing Hand,The Determinants of Unofficial Activity in 69 Countries"[J],Journal of Public Economics,76,pp.459-493.
[4]Schneider,F.,Enste,D.,2000,"Shadow Economies:Size,Causes,and Consequences"[J],Journal of Economic Literature,38,pp.77-114.
[5]Rosser,J.,Rosser,M.,Ahmed,E.,2000,"Income Inequality and the Informal Economy in Transition Economies"[J],Journal of Comparative Economics,28,pp.156-171.
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[9]Kim,B.,2003,"Informal Economic Activities of Soviet Households:Size and Dynamics"[J],Journal of Comparative Economics,31/3,pp.532-551.
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[1]Lacko Maria,1996,"Hidden economy in East-European countries in international comparison"[J],working paper,Laxenburg,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(ⅡASA),
[2]Loayza,N.V.,1996,"The economics of the informal sector:a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America"[J],Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,45,pp.129-162.
[1]Feige,E.L.,Urban,Ⅰ.,2005,"Estimating the Size and Growth of Unrecorded Economic Activity in Transition Countries:A Re-evaluation of Electric Consumption Method Estimates and Their Implications"[M],William Davidson Institute,Ann Arbor MI.
[2]Eilat,Y.,Zinnes,C.,2002,"The Evolution of the Shadow Economy in Transition Countries:Consequences for Economic Growth and Donor Assistance"[J],CAER Ⅱ Discussion Paper,83,September.
[1]Lacko Maria,1998,"The hidden economics of Visegrad countries in international comparison:A household electricity approach"[J]//,in Halpern,L.and Wyplosz,Ch.(cds.),"Hungary:Towards a market economy"[M],Cambridge,Cambridge University Press,pp.128-152.
[2]Lacko Maria,2000,"Hidden Economy an Unknown Quantity? Comparative analysis of hidden economics in transition countrics,1989-1995"[J],Economics of Transition,8/1,pp.117-149.
[1]Frey,B.S.,Weck,H.,1983,"Estimating the shadow economy:A 'naive' approach"[J],Oxford Economic Papers,35,pp.23-44.
[1]Frey,Bruno S.,Weck,H.,1984,"The hidden economy as an 'unobserved'variable"[J],European Economic Review,26/1,pp.33-53.
[1]Frey,Bruno S.,Werner Pommerehne,1984,"The hidden economy:State and prospect for measurement"[J],Review of Income and Wealth,30/1,pp.1-23.
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[1]Giles,1999,"Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand"[J],Empirical Economics,24,pp.621-640.
[1]Giles,Tedds and Werkneh,2002,"The Canadian underground and measured economies"[J],Applied Economics,34/4,pp.2347-2352.
[2]Bajada,Christopher,Schneider,Friedrich,2005,"Size,Causes and Consequences of the Underground Economy:An International Perspective"[M],Aldershot(GB),Ashgate Publishing Company.
[3]Chatterjee,S.,Chaudhury,K.,Schneider,F.,2006,"The size and development of the Indian shadow economy and a comparison with other 18 Asian countries:An empirical investigation"[J],forthcoming in the Journal of Development Economics,April.
[4]Schneider,2006,"Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World:What do we really know? "[R],CREMA Working Paper Series from Center for Research in Economics,Management and the Arts (CREMA).
[1]Contini,B.,1981,"Labour market segmentation and the development of the parallel economy:the Italian experience"[J],Oxford Economic Papers,2,pp.401-412.
[1]Contini,B.,1989,"The irregular economy of Italy:a survey of contributions"[J]//,in Feige,E.L.,1989,pp.237-250.
[2]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices"[M],United Nations,Geneva,p.71.
[3]Del Boca,Daniela.,1981,"Parallel economy and allocation of time"[J],Micros,4/2,pp.13-18.
[4]O'Neill,David,M.,1983,"Growth of the underground economy 1950-1981:Some evidence from the current population survey"[C],Study for the Joint Economic Committee,U.S.Congress,Joint Committee Print,pp.98-122.
[1]Bojan,N.and Stefan,B.2007,"The Shadow Economy in Slovenia-The Labor Approach"[J],Managing Global Transitions,pp.193-208.
[1]限于资料的可得性和统一性,我们无法获得各种间接估算方法的估算结果。
[2]Thomas,Jim J.,1986," The underground economy in the United States:A comment on Tanzi"[J],IMF-Staff Papers,33/4,pp.782-789.
Thomas,Jim J.,1992," Informal Economic Activity"[J],LSE,Handbooks in Economics,London,Harvester Wheatsheaf.
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[4]Pozo,Susan,1996,"Exploring the Underground Economy:Studies of Illegal and Unreported Activity"[C],Institute for Employment Research,Michigan,W.E.Upjohn,
[5]Schneider,Friedrich,1997,"The shadow economies of Western Europe"[J],Economic Affairs,17/3,pp.42-48.
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[1]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices"[M],United Nations,Geneva,p.25.
[2]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices"[M],United Nations,Geneva,p.179.
[1]Dallago,B.,1990,"The Irregular Economy:The 'Underground' Economy and the 'Black' Labour Market"[M],Aldershot.
[2]Lemieux,T.,Fortin,B.,Frechette,P.,1994,"The Effect of Taxes on Labor Supply in the Underground Economy"[J],American Economic Review,84,pp.231-254.
[3]Mogensen,G.V.,Kvist,H.K.,Kormendi,E.,Pedersen,S.,1995,"The Shadow Economy in Denmark:Measurement and Results"[J],Copenhagen.
[4]Vaneck,R.and Kazemier,B.,1988,"Features of The Hidden Economy in the Netherlands"[J],Review of Income and Wealth,34/3,pp.251-273.
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[2]Hungarian Central Statistical Office,1998,"Hidden Economy in Hungary 1998"[J],Hungarian Central Statistical Office,Budapest.
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[1]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices"[M],United Nations,Geneva,p.39.
[1]在许多落后和发展中国家,非正规部门企业一般不会到企业登记处注册。
[2]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices",United Nations,Geneva,P179.
[1]夏兴园主编,中国地下经济问题研究[M],河南人民出版社,1993年5月。
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11 江雪莲,关于我国的权力寻租与黑色经济腐败现象的思考[J],河北师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),第25卷第5期,2002年9月。
[1]国家统计局,中国国民经济核算体系(2002)[M],中国统计出版社,2003年3月。
[1]邱东、杨仲山,当代国民经济统计学主流[M],东北财经大学出版社,2004年。
[1]根据《中国统计年鉴2006》、《中国统计年鉴1990》数据计算得到。
[2]详见 专家批政府自筹制度 中国宏观税率已达31%[N/OL],财经快报,2007年3月18日。http://www.my-link.cn/html/cjxx/qhsc/20070318/930.html
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[5]王宝雨,我国地下经济的估测及结构分析的探讨[J],问题研究,2004年第4期。
[6]张志超、丁宏、但芳芳,中国地下经济的规模估测[J],统计与决策》,2004年第12期。
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[1]税收收入能力,又称纳税能力(Taxable Capacity),是指在现有税收制度和征收方法条件下,某一地区在一段时间内(通常足指一个财政年度)潜在的税收资源总量。它足一个地区一段时间内可支配的税收资源的理论最大值,是充分征收条件下的税收总量。税收收入能力估算是利用再种数理方法,对一个地区某一时期内(过去或未来)应征税收收入总量的测算。
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[3]随机化是指每个非正规部门企业的入样概率均等,组织者事先需要一份完整的非正规部门企业的名录,可利用随机数码表、随机数筛子等工具,实现非正规部门企业选择的随机化过程.
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[1]印度国家公共财政研究所,黑色经济活动[M],经济管理出版社,P45。
[2]经济普查结果显示,2004年我国NOE规模与当年官方公布的GDP的比值至少达到16.81%,如果NOE 仅以现金为交易媒介这一假设条件成立,就意味着2004年的现金与狭义货币的比值应明显大于1979年的水平,而官方统计的各层次货币供应量则显示(见图6-1),2004年的现金与狭义货币的比值却与1979年的水平相当,从而,我们有理由认为,NOE已不仅仅以现金为交易媒介。
[1]直接税和间接税足以税负能否转嫁来区分的.直接税的税负不能转嫁,由纳税人承担;间接税税负能够转嫁,纳税人并不是税负的最终承担者.
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[1]按照传统货币数量轮,如果货币供给增长串大于通货膨胀率与实际经济增长牢之和时就意味着出现了超额货币。
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[2]当然这中间不排除投机性资金,但我们认为只要它具有长期性,它的作用就与交易性资金没有很大区别,对本文分析的目的和结论无影响。
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[2]被迫储蓄假说认为,由于我国居民选择金融资产的方式相对较少及社会商品的相对短缺.居民因买不到所需的商品而被迫将收入储蓄起来,从而人们只好持有较多的货币(即被迫储蓄).结果大量储蓄(主要是个人储蓄)没有转化为投资导致货币流通速度不断下降.
[3]人民币区域化假说认为.一部分人民币流入周边国家或地区成为周边国家或地区的“硬通货”,从而导致国内流通货币量的减少.
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[1]具体估算方式可参见李建军,中国地下金融规模与宏观经济影响研究[M]。中国金融出版社,2005年出版。
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[1]详见我国学者有关地下经济规模估算的文献。
[2]直接税和间接税足以税负能否转嫁来区分的.直接税的税负不能转嫁.由纳税人承担:间接税税负能够转嫁,纳税人并不是税负的最终承担者.
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[1]具体详见国务院第一次全国经济普查领导小组办公室,第一次全国经济普查方案:第一次全国经济普查法人单位、产业活动单位和个体经营户划分规定[N],2004年.
[2]具体详见国务院第一次全国经济普查领导小组办公室,全国经济普查条例[N],2004年.
[1]具体详见国务院第一次全国经济普查领导小组办公室,第一次全国经济普查方案:关于第一次全国经济普查若干问题的规定[N],2004年。
[1]许多消费品都足以家庭为消费单位的,同时个人消费也能在家庭消费中得以体现。
[2]具体详见国家统计局城市司,城市住户调查方案[N].2007年。
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[1]根据各年《浙江年鉴》发布劳动就业信息整理.
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[1]原统计局副局长邱晓华:中国经济增速是怎样产生的[J/OL],新华网,2003年1月1日。
[1](美)萨缪尔森.经济学[M],商务印书馆,1982年。
[1]Feige,E.L.,1979,"How big is the irregular economy?"[J],Challenge,22,pp.5-13.Feige,E.L.,1980,"A new perspective ofmacroeconomic phenomena-the theory and measurement of the unobserved sector of the United States:causes,consequences,and implications"[J],American Economic Association Proceedings,pp.1-63.
[2]NoE的研究热潮最早在20世纪50年代末展开,中间曾被一度冷落,直至70年代末又重新被研究者热捧,直至现在。 相关文献可参见Kaldor,N.,1956,"Indian tax reform:report of a survey"[R],Ministry of Finance,Government of India:Cagan,P.,1958,"The demand for currency relative to the total money supply"[J],Journal of Political Economy,66,pp.303-328.
[1]Tanzi,V.,1999,"Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],The Economic Journal,109/456,pp.338-340.
[1]Guttman,M.,1977,"'The subterranean economy"[J],Financial Analysts Journal,34,pp.24-27.
[2]Gregory Grossman,1977,"The Second Economy in the USSR"[J],Problems of Communism,26/5,pp.25-40.
[3]Feige,E.L.,1979,"How big is the irregular economy?"[J],Challenge,22,pp.5-13.
[4]MacAfee,K.,1980,"A glimpse of the hidden economy in the national accounts"[J],Economic Trends,February,316,pp.81-87.
[5]Feige,E.L.,1981,"'The UK's Unobserved Economy:A Preliminary Assessment"[J],Economic Affairs,7,pp.205-212.
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11 Kanfmann,Daniel and Kaliberda,Aleksander,1996,"Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post socialist economies:A framework of analyses and evidence"[J]//,in Kaminski,B.(eds.),"Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia"[M],London,M.E.Sharpe,pp.81-120.
[1]Smith,P.M.,1997,"Assessing the size of the underground economy:the Statistics Canada perspective"[J]//,in Lippert,O.and Walker,M.(eds),1997,"The underground economy:global evidence of its size and impact"[M],Frazer Institute,Vancouver,pp.1 1-36.
[2]Tanzi,V.,1999,"Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],The Economic Journal,109/456,pp.338-340.
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[4]Neil Mann,2003,"The Cash Economy Under the New Tax System"[M],Copyright,(?) Commonwealth of Australia 2003.
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[7]Schneider,Friedrich,2006,"Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World:What do we really know?"[R],CREMA Working Paper Series from Center for Research in Economics,Management and the Arts (CREMA).
[1]涉及两个经济主体间的经济活动称为“狭义交易活动”。
[2]向蓉美,杨作廪,王青华编著,国民经济核算及分析[M],西南财经大学出版社,2005年,p2。
[1]赫尔南多·德·索托,另一条道路(秘鲁)[M],华夏出版社,2007年2月。
[2]Feige,E.L.,1990,"Defining and Estimating Underground and Informal Economies:The New Institutional Economics Approach"[M],published in World Development,18/7.
[3]Lippert,Owen,Michael Walker,1997,"The Underground Economy:Global Evidences of its Size and Impact"[M],Vancouver,B.C.,The Frazer Institute.
[4]Schneider,2006,"Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World:What do we really know?"[R],CREMA Working Paper Series from Center for Research in Economics,Management and the Arts(CREMA).
[1]Stavros Katsios,2006,"The Shadow Economy and Corruption in Greece,South-Eastern Europe"[J],Journal of Economics,1,pp.61-80.
[2]OECD,ILO,IMF,2002,"Measuring the Non-observed Economy -A Handbook"[M],Statistical Committee of the CIS,Paris.
[3]Commission of the European Communities,International Monetary Fund,Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development,United Nations,World Bank,1993,"System of National Accounts"[M],New York.
[1]可详见第十五届国际劳工统计会议《关于非正规部门就业统计的方案》。
[2]OECD,ILO,IMF,2002,"Measuring theNon-observed Economy-A Handbook"[M],Statistical Committee of the CIS,Paris,p.179.
[1]OECD,ILO,IMF,2002,"Measuring the Non-observed Economy-A Handbook"[M],Statistical Committee of the CIS,Paris,p.41.
[1]Tanzi,V.,1999," Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],The Economic Journal,109/456,pp.338-340.
[2]Clotfelter,C.T.,1983,"Tax evasion and tax rates:An analysis of individual returns"[J],Review of Economics and Statistics,65,pp.363-373.
[3]Andreoni,J.,Erard,B.,Feinstein,J.,1998,"Tax compliance"[J],Journal of Economic Literature,36,pp.818-960.
[4]Schneider,Friedrich,1994,"Can the shadow economy be reduced through major tax reforms? An empirical investigation for Austria"[J],Supplement to Public Finance/Finances Publiques,49,pp.137-152.
[5]Schneider,Friedrich,1986,"Estimating the size of the Danish shadow economy using the currency demandapproach:An attempt"[J],The Scandinavian Journal of Econamics,88/4,pp.643-668.
[6]Johnson,Simon,Kaufinann,Daniel,Pablo Zoido-Lohaton,1998,"Regulatory discretion and the unofficial economy"[J],The American Economic Review,88/2,pp.387-392.
[7]Kirchgaeasner,Gebhard,1983,"Size and development of the West German shadow economy:1955-1980"[J],Zeitschrift fur die gesamte Staatswissenschaft,139/2,pp.197-214.
[8]Klovland,Jan,1984,"Tax evasion and the demand for currency in Norway and Sweden:Is there a hiddenrelationship?"[J],Scandinavian Journal of Economics,86/4,pp.423-39.
[9]Friedman,E.,Johnson,S.,Kaufmann,D.and Zoido-Labton,P.,2000,"Dodging the grabbing hand:The determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries"[J],Journal of Public Economics,76/4,pp.459-493.
[1]规模比数指NOE与当年GDP之比。
[2]Tanzi,V,1999,"Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],The Economic Journal,109/456,pp.338-340.
[3]Schneider,Friedrich,1994,"Can the shadow economy be reduced through major tax reforms? An empiricalinvestigation for Austria"[J],Supplement to Public Finance/Finances Publiques,49,pp.137-152.
[4]Benno,Torgler,2002,"Speaking to Theorists and Searching for Facts:Tax Moral and Tax Compliance in Experiments"[J],Journal of Economic Surveys,16/5,pp.657-683.
[5]Benno,Torgler,Schneider,Friedrich,2005,"Attitudes Towards Payin8 Taxes in Austria:An Empirical Analysis"[J],Empirica,32/2,pp.231-250.
[6]Feld,Lars,and Bruno S.Frey,2005,"Tax Complains as the Result of a Psychological Tax Contract:The Role of Incentives and Responsioe Regulation"[J],Discussion Paper,University of Marburg,Germany.
[1]Benno,Torgler,Markus,Schaffner,Alison,Macintyre,2007,"Tax Compliance,Tax Morale and Governance Quality"[J],Working Paper,17,CREMA Gellertstrasse 18 CH - 4052 Basel,http://www.crema-research.ch
[2]Johnson S.,Kaufmann D.,Schleifer A..,1997,"The unofficial economy in transition"[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2,pp.159-221.Johnson S.,Kaufmann D.,Zoido-Lobaton,1998,"Corruption,Public Finances and the Unofficial Economy"[J],World Bank Discussion Paper,pp.15-21.
[1]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices"[M],United Nations,Geneva.
[2]Johnson S.,Kaufmann D.,Schleifer A..,1997,"The unofficial economy in transition"[J],Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2,pp.159-221.
[3]赫尔南多·德.索托,另一条道路(秘鲁)[M],华夏出版社,2007年2月。
[1]清廉指数是一种复合民意调查,反映的仅仅是商人或国情分析研究专家对一个国家腐败情势的观感,他们包括本国的或外国派驻人员,该指数在1-10之间度量,数值越大表示腐败程度越轻。值得一提的是,透明国际清廉指数呈现的只是一种快照似的主观感受,而无法反映一种跨年的变化趋势。作为弥补,Johann Graf Lambsdorf提供了一个时间向度的分析方法,具体内容可参见Transparency International,2005,"Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index"[M],pp.3-8.
[2]Johnson,Simon,Kaufmann,Daniel and Pablo Zoido-Lobaton,1998,"Corruption,public finances and theunofficial economy"[.I],discussion paper,Washington,D.C.,The World Bank.
[3]Hindriks,J.,Muthoo,A..,Keen,M.,1999,"Corruption,extortion and evasion"[J],Journal of Public Economics,74,pp.395-430.
[4]Choi,J.,Thum,M.,2004,"Corruption and the shadow economy"[J],International Economic Review,12/4,pp.308-342.
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[1]Tanzi,V.,1999,"Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy"[J],The Economic Journal,109/456,pp.338-340.
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[6]所谓敏感性间题,是指涉及个人或团体的隐私和利益而不便向外界透露的问题。如“你是否从事非法活动?”、“你的生产活动是否偷税漏税?”、“你是否从事非正规生产活动?”
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[1]Bojan,N.and Stefan,B.2007,"The Shadow Economy in Slovenia-The Labor Approach"[J],Managing Global Transitions,pp.193-208.
[1]限于资料的可得性和统一性,我们无法获得各种间接估算方法的估算结果。
[2]Thomas,Jim J.,1986," The underground economy in the United States:A comment on Tanzi"[J],IMF-Staff Papers,33/4,pp.782-789.
Thomas,Jim J.,1992," Informal Economic Activity"[J],LSE,Handbooks in Economics,London,Harvester Wheatsheaf.
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[1]在许多落后和发展中国家,非正规部门企业一般不会到企业登记处注册。
[2]United Nations Economic Commission For Europe,2003,"Non-observed Economy in National Accounts-Survey Of National Practices",United Nations,Geneva,P179.
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[1]根据《中国统计年鉴2006》、《中国统计年鉴1990》数据计算得到。
[2]详见 专家批政府自筹制度 中国宏观税率已达31%[N/OL],财经快报,2007年3月18日。http://www.my-link.cn/html/cjxx/qhsc/20070318/930.html
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[1]税收收入能力,又称纳税能力(Taxable Capacity),是指在现有税收制度和征收方法条件下,某一地区在一段时间内(通常足指一个财政年度)潜在的税收资源总量。它足一个地区一段时间内可支配的税收资源的理论最大值,是充分征收条件下的税收总量。税收收入能力估算是利用再种数理方法,对一个地区某一时期内(过去或未来)应征税收收入总量的测算。
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[3]随机化是指每个非正规部门企业的入样概率均等,组织者事先需要一份完整的非正规部门企业的名录,可利用随机数码表、随机数筛子等工具,实现非正规部门企业选择的随机化过程.
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[1]印度国家公共财政研究所,黑色经济活动[M],经济管理出版社,P45。
[2]经济普查结果显示,2004年我国NOE规模与当年官方公布的GDP的比值至少达到16.81%,如果NOE 仅以现金为交易媒介这一假设条件成立,就意味着2004年的现金与狭义货币的比值应明显大于1979年的水平,而官方统计的各层次货币供应量则显示(见图6-1),2004年的现金与狭义货币的比值却与1979年的水平相当,从而,我们有理由认为,NOE已不仅仅以现金为交易媒介。
[1]直接税和间接税足以税负能否转嫁来区分的.直接税的税负不能转嫁,由纳税人承担;间接税税负能够转嫁,纳税人并不是税负的最终承担者.
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[1]按照传统货币数量轮,如果货币供给增长串大于通货膨胀率与实际经济增长牢之和时就意味着出现了超额货币。
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[2]当然这中间不排除投机性资金,但我们认为只要它具有长期性,它的作用就与交易性资金没有很大区别,对本文分析的目的和结论无影响。
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[1]刘士余、王辰华,中国经济货币化进程。动态演进及实证解说[J].金融研究,2005年第3期.
[2]被迫储蓄假说认为,由于我国居民选择金融资产的方式相对较少及社会商品的相对短缺.居民因买不到所需的商品而被迫将收入储蓄起来,从而人们只好持有较多的货币(即被迫储蓄).结果大量储蓄(主要是个人储蓄)没有转化为投资导致货币流通速度不断下降.
[3]人民币区域化假说认为.一部分人民币流入周边国家或地区成为周边国家或地区的“硬通货”,从而导致国内流通货币量的减少.
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[1]具体估算方式可参见李建军,中国地下金融规模与宏观经济影响研究[M]。中国金融出版社,2005年出版。
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[1]详见我国学者有关地下经济规模估算的文献。
[2]直接税和间接税足以税负能否转嫁来区分的.直接税的税负不能转嫁.由纳税人承担:间接税税负能够转嫁,纳税人并不是税负的最终承担者.
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[1]具体详见国务院第一次全国经济普查领导小组办公室,第一次全国经济普查方案:第一次全国经济普查法人单位、产业活动单位和个体经营户划分规定[N],2004年.
[2]具体详见国务院第一次全国经济普查领导小组办公室,全国经济普查条例[N],2004年.
[1]具体详见国务院第一次全国经济普查领导小组办公室,第一次全国经济普查方案:关于第一次全国经济普查若干问题的规定[N],2004年。
[1]许多消费品都足以家庭为消费单位的,同时个人消费也能在家庭消费中得以体现。
[2]具体详见国家统计局城市司,城市住户调查方案[N].2007年。
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[1]根据各年《浙江年鉴》发布劳动就业信息整理.
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