湖南省环境与经济关系的实证分析
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摘要
当今社会,环境与经济的关系成为人类和谐发展的关键所在。环境与经济的矛盾突出。一方面,经济增长使得工业污染物不断增加,导致环境质量下降。环境问题威胁着人类的生存与发展;另一方面,环境恶化反过来也制约了经济的增长。正是从分析这一矛盾出发,本文力求运用环境经济学、计量经济学的一些基本理论,采用调查分析、资料研究、理论探讨等研究方法,从分析湖南省环境与经济关系入手,基于湖南省1989-2006年所选择的环境指标和经济指标,从实证的角度,运用计量经济学模型分析二者间的数量关系。本文通过协整检验法来检验环境指标与经济指标之间的协整关系,以寻求二者之间长期均衡关系,并且通过向量自回归模型建立向量误差修正模型和通过E-G两步法建立误差修正模型来寻求二者之间短期动态变化关系。接着分析环境指标与经济指标相互影响的短期因果关系。另外利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法考察二者之间相互影响的强度和初期影响情况。最后结合上述分析结果和问题,根据湖南省实际情况,提出保持湖南省环境与经济走循环经济发展道路的对策和建议。
本文分五章,第一章主要介绍本文的选题背景,然后介绍本文的研究思路和结构,最后提出本文的创新点和研究意义。第二章主要介绍国内外环境与经济关系的相关文献,提出自己的看法,然后给出环境与经济关系的理论分析,主要是从环境质量与经济增长之间的相互影响方面来分析。第三章主要介绍了本文所要用到的一些计量经济学研究方法,有时间序列模型中的基本概念、单位根检验、协整理论、向量自回归理论。第四章是本文的重点,分为四节:第一节是数据和变量的选取;第二节是单位根检验和协整分析;第三节是因果关系检验;第四节是脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法。后三节每一节都对分析的结果做了详细的分析和小结。第五章是结论及政策建议。
Nowadays, the relation of environment and economy become where the shoe pinches which makes human development harmonious. Conflict of environment and economy extrude. On the one hand, economic increase makes industrialized contamination increased continuously and results in decline in environmental quality. Environmental problems threaten human survival and develop; on the other hand, environmental labefaction restricts economic increase. From analyzing this conflict, this paper uses some basic theories of environment economics and econometrics and adopts some research methods which are diagnoses, information research, theory discuss and so on. This paper starts with empirically analyzing the relation of environment and economy by means of econometric model and on basis of selective environmental index and economic index in Hunan from 1989 to 2006. This paper uses econometric model to analyse quantitative relation between them. Using cointegrate test, This paper tests cointegrate relation between environmental index and economic index to seek long-term equilibrium. Using VAR model and E-G two steps method, this paper sets up VEC model and ECM model to seek short-term dynamic relation. Then, it analyses short-term causality between environmental index and economic index. It uses impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis to review interactional intension and incipient infection in them. Finally, this paper advances countermeasure and advice which can keep environment and economy going the way of circular economy in Hunan.
This paper is five chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background, then, it introduces the research way and frame, finally, it advance innovative spot and research meaning in this paper. The second chapter introduces correlative literature about the relation of environment and economy and advances my attitude, then, it introduces theory analysis of environment and economy in aspect of mutual influence between environmental quality and economic increase. The third chapter introduces some econometric research methods, such as basic concept in time series model, unit root test, cointegrate theory and vector autoregression theory. The fourth chapter is textual emphases. The main content of the chapter are as follows: the first passage is choosing data and variable; the second passage is unit root test and cointegrate analysis; the third passage is causality test; the fourth passage is impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. This paper makes detailed analysis and brief summary in last three passages. The fifth passage is conclusion and policy advising.
本文分五章,第一章主要介绍本文的选题背景,然后介绍本文的研究思路和结构,最后提出本文的创新点和研究意义。第二章主要介绍国内外环境与经济关系的相关文献,提出自己的看法,然后给出环境与经济关系的理论分析,主要是从环境质量与经济增长之间的相互影响方面来分析。第三章主要介绍了本文所要用到的一些计量经济学研究方法,有时间序列模型中的基本概念、单位根检验、协整理论、向量自回归理论。第四章是本文的重点,分为四节:第一节是数据和变量的选取;第二节是单位根检验和协整分析;第三节是因果关系检验;第四节是脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法。后三节每一节都对分析的结果做了详细的分析和小结。第五章是结论及政策建议。
Nowadays, the relation of environment and economy become where the shoe pinches which makes human development harmonious. Conflict of environment and economy extrude. On the one hand, economic increase makes industrialized contamination increased continuously and results in decline in environmental quality. Environmental problems threaten human survival and develop; on the other hand, environmental labefaction restricts economic increase. From analyzing this conflict, this paper uses some basic theories of environment economics and econometrics and adopts some research methods which are diagnoses, information research, theory discuss and so on. This paper starts with empirically analyzing the relation of environment and economy by means of econometric model and on basis of selective environmental index and economic index in Hunan from 1989 to 2006. This paper uses econometric model to analyse quantitative relation between them. Using cointegrate test, This paper tests cointegrate relation between environmental index and economic index to seek long-term equilibrium. Using VAR model and E-G two steps method, this paper sets up VEC model and ECM model to seek short-term dynamic relation. Then, it analyses short-term causality between environmental index and economic index. It uses impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis to review interactional intension and incipient infection in them. Finally, this paper advances countermeasure and advice which can keep environment and economy going the way of circular economy in Hunan.
This paper is five chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background, then, it introduces the research way and frame, finally, it advance innovative spot and research meaning in this paper. The second chapter introduces correlative literature about the relation of environment and economy and advances my attitude, then, it introduces theory analysis of environment and economy in aspect of mutual influence between environmental quality and economic increase. The third chapter introduces some econometric research methods, such as basic concept in time series model, unit root test, cointegrate theory and vector autoregression theory. The fourth chapter is textual emphases. The main content of the chapter are as follows: the first passage is choosing data and variable; the second passage is unit root test and cointegrate analysis; the third passage is causality test; the fourth passage is impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. This paper makes detailed analysis and brief summary in last three passages. The fifth passage is conclusion and policy advising.
引文
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[2] Selden T M, D Song. Environment Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emission[J]? Journal of Environmental Economic Management, 1994, (27): 147-162.
[3] Stern D. Progress on the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Environment and Development Economics, 1998,(3): 175-198.
[4] Ekins P. The Kuznets Curve for the environment and economic growth: examining the evidence [J]. Environment and Planning, 1997, (29):805-830.
[5] David I stern. Is there an Environmental Kuzets Curve for Sulfur[J]? Fournal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2001.
[6] Sownyananda Dinda. Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A survey[J]. Ecological Economics,2004,(49): 431-455.
[7] J.W.Sun. The nature of CO_2 emission Kuznets curve[J]. Energy Plicy, 1999,(27): 691-694.
[8] Van Lantz. Is there an Environmental Juznets Curve for clearcutting in Canadian forests[J]? Journal of Forest Economic,2002,(81): 199-212.
[9] Panayotou T Demystifying. The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Turning A lack Box into a Policy Tool. Special issue on Environmental Kuznets Curves[J]. Environment Development Economics, 1997,2 (4):465-484.
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[11] Simon.Dietz , W.Neil.Adger. Economic growth, biodiversity lossed Conservation effect[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2003,(68): 23-25.
[12] Angela Canas, Paulo Ferrao. A new Environmental Kuznets Curve? Relationship between direct material input and income per capita[J]. Ecological Economics,2003,(46):217-229.
[13] Marzio Galeotti, Alessandro Lanza. Desperatly seeking Environmental Kuznets. Environmental Modelling&software,2005,(20): 1379-1388.
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[15]Bovenberg A.and Smulders S.,Transitional Impacts of Environmental Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model[J].International Economic Review,1996,(37):861-893.
[16]Tahvonen O.and Kuuluvainen J.,Economic Growth,Pollution and Renewable Resources[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1993,(24):101-118.
[17]Selden T.Song D.,Neoclassical Growth,the J Curve for Abatement,and the Inverted U Curve for pollution[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1995,(29):162-168.
[18]Sims C.,Macroeconomics and Reality[J].Econometric,1980,(48):1-48.
[19]陈忠红、孙锲.我国的经济增长、资源环境保护和可持续发展[J].中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版),2006,(6):35-38.
[20]陈静、曾珍香.社会、经济、资源、环境协调发展评价模型研究[J].科学管理研究,2004,(3):9-12.
[21]魏一鸣等.人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的多目标集成模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,(8):1-5.
[22]刘利.广东省环境库兹尼兹特征分析[J].环境科学研究,2005,(6):8-11.
[23]吴玉萍、董锁成.北京市环境政策评价研究[J].城市环境与城市生态,2002,(4):56-61.
[24]赵文君、文启湘.环境库兹涅茨曲线及其在我国的修正[J].经济学家,2004,(5):69-75.
[25]南振宁、缪旭波.江苏环境库兹涅茨特征分析[J].农业生态环境分析,2004,(1):41-43.
[26]张云、申玉铭、徐谦.北京市工业废气排放的环境库兹涅茨特征及因素分析[J].首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),2005,(3):114-116.
[27]王瑞玲、陈印军.我国“三废”排放的库兹涅茨曲线特征及其成因的灰色关联度分析[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2005,(2):42-46.
[28]邢秀风、曹洪军.青岛市“三废”排放的环境库兹尼兹特征分析[J].城市环境与城市生态,2005,(10):33-37.
[29]胡明秀、胡辉.武汉市工业“三废”污染状况计量模型研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2005,(7):471-474.
[30]李崧、邱微、赵庆良.黑龙江省环境质量与经济发展定量关系研究[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(11).
[31]夏永久、陈兴鹏.西北半干旱区城市经济增长与环境污染演进阶段及其互动 效应分析[J].浙江社会科学,2000,(7):53-57.
[32]沈满洪、许云华.一种新型的环境库兹涅茨曲线[J].浙江社会科学,2000,(4):53-57.
[33]张鹏、马小红.中国经济发展与环境污染关系的实证研究[J].湖南科技学院报,2005,(5):264-268.
[34]包群、彭水军.是否存在环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线[J].上海经济研究,2005,(12):3-13.
[35]吴永业、袁达.中国工业经济与环境协调发展的经济计量模型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2000,(10):15-17.
[36]杨凯、叶茂.上海市废弃物增长的环境库兹涅茨特征研究[J].地理研究,2003,(1):50-66.
[37]陆虹.中国环境问题与经济发展的关系分析[J].财经研究,2000,(10):53-59.
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