中国社会经济系统发展与可持续性的“社会代谢多尺度综合评估（MSIASM）”
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摘要
社会经济系统在经济学家描述为生产和消费的过程中,从其自然环境中输入原材料(包括物质和能量),将它们转变成制成品和服务,并最终变成废弃物和排放,耗散回环境,这一过程就是社会代谢。社会代谢通常分成物质代谢和能量代谢两部分。物质代谢研究基本上等同于物料流分析MFA,从20世纪90年代以来,进入一个迸发期,无论基本概念、范式,还是实际应用,都已臻成熟。我国也有许多学者从事MFA研究,取得了可喜成绩。
然而,能量代谢研究却很少,(作者发现)目前仅有以奥地利哈珀尔(Helmut Haberl)为首的、与物料流分析对应的“能量流分析EFA”和以意大利吉阿姆皮埃特罗(Mario Giampietro)和日本真弓浩三(Kozo Mayumi)为首的“社会代谢多尺度综合评估MSIASM”。
社会代谢多尺度综合评估MSIASM并行地利用不同学科与社会经济系统的能量代谢过程及系统的经济、人口、社会和生态特征有关的各种经济参量和生物物理参量,根据“人类活动时间”资源、“体外能流”资源和“增加值流”三者在社会经济系统中的叠合关系,即用投入于整个社会经济系统及其各个组成部门的“人类活动时间”作为共同的参照基础(或者说,公分母),将社会经济系统及其各个部门消费的“体外能”和生产的“增加值”串联起来——社会经济系统x部门(要素)单位人类活动时间消费的体外能←→该部门(要素)单位人类活动时间生产的增加值,将这些参量结合起来,利用多个关系式,计算出社会经济系统的人类活动时间HA、流量份额HA(n-1)/THA(n)、体外能吞吐量ET、贮量份额ET(n-1)/TET(n)、能源强度EI、体外能代谢率EMR、社会生产率ESP、劳动生产率ELP、生物-经济压力BEP和体外能超循环强度SEH等参数或指标。进而根据这些参数或指标综合地分析评估社会经济系统的发展与可持续性。实践证明MSIASM是综合评估社会经济系统的发展与可持续性的一个好方法。
本文应用经作者视为修改的MSIASM方法,分析了1990年-2006年中国社会经济系统的发展轨迹,发现存在的可持续性胁迫。
(1)在人类活动时间HA方面,从1990年到2006年,HAH增幅大于HAPW的增幅,表明了17年来中国社会经济系统不断发展的结果:普及义务教育、高中和高校学生增多、平均寿命延长、退休人员比重增大、年工作时间缩短等。HA3比重稳步增长,反映服务业对中国的就业问题贡献最大。
由参与经济活动的人口比重、HAH份额和高于世界平均水平的HAPW/THA比值表现出来的现阶段的劳动力优势,是中国发展的相对优势。但它可能是未来中国社会可持续性发展的阿基里斯之踵(Ramos-Martín, et al., 2006)。因而中国人口年龄结构是中国社会经济系统可持续性发展在人口方面的一个胁迫。
人类活动时间的社会开支SOHAe和SOHAb虽有所增大,但与发达国家的SOHAb≈24比较,相差很大,说明现在中国从事生产活动的人数(特别是农业从业者)太多,劳动力转移(尤其是转向服务业)的压力还很大,成为中国社会经济系统可持续性发展在人口方面的又一个胁迫。
(2)在体外能吞吐量ET方面,1990-2006年,中国TET增加了118%,达79.696×1015KJ(2.723×109tce),ETPW增长了164%,而ETH仅增长22%。同时,ETPW/TET比值从68%增大到82%,而ETH/TET比值则从32%降到18%。表明在此期间,中国社会经济系统增加的体外能吞吐量大多消费于经济活动,这是经济发展初期的特征;而生活消费的能源增加不多,意味着物质生活标准提高不快(特别是广大的农村人口)。
在此期间,EI下降了54%,而能源吞吐总量TET却稳步上升,可见,中国社会经济系统对能源消费需求的持续快速增大及相联的CO2排放量是中国可持续性发展在能源方面的一个严重胁迫。
(3)在体外能代谢率EMR方面,1990-2006年间,中国EMRSA上涨了89%。在3个产业中,EMR1增幅最大(119%),表明了农业投入的增加和农业的发展,更重要的是反映了投入在第一产业的人类活动时间减少了;EMR3增幅最小(89%),除了说明投入在第3产业的劳动力增多之外,还说明第3产业的发展较慢(资本化水平偏低)。EMRH的增幅最小,表明:(i)用于生活的人类活动时间增加了,这主要反映在就业人员年工作时间的缩短;(ii)物质生活标准的提高,特别是广大农民的物质生活标准的提高不大。
EMRH将不断提高(如家用汽车保有量的不断增大),而将导致社会经济系统能源吞吐总量TET增大很多。这将是中国社会经济系统可持续性发展在能源方面的另一胁迫。所以,做社会经济系统能源分析时,一定要把家政部门的能源吞吐量ETH考虑在内。
(3)从2003-2006年这个时间段来分析,生产率ESP和ELP增幅的变化表明了:(i)社会经济系统总体进步加快;(ii)农业就业人员数量减少和增加值增加在同步进行之中,增加值总量与从业人员数量之间没有关联,说明了农业劳动力转移的可行性和必要性;(iii)第二产业ELP2增幅最小,生产效率提高不大,增加值的增加较多依赖于劳动力的增加。
中国付薪部门的体外能代谢率EMRPW与劳动生产率ELP的变化轨迹(除了1990和1995年外)相当吻合,说明了二者之间密切的相互关系,也印证了能源消费与经济发展之间的关系。
(5)在生物经济压力BEP方面,1990-2006年,中国BEP增长了130%,而同期的GDP和人均GDP分别增长了374%和312%,可见BEP更好地反映了社会物质生活标准实际的改善状况。而且BEP增大与GDP/cap增长之间存在近乎直线的关系,再次验证了BEP是一个衡量社会经济系统发展的好的生物物理指标。
(6)基于家政部门的体外能代谢率EMRH,简单估测:要达到1996年西班牙的物质生活标准(EMRH≈3.0MJ/hr),2020年中国的能源需求量约为4.6btce(含生物质能源约0.26btce)。此数值大于魏一鸣等人(2006)的预测值(2.888-3.880btce)。
本论文还从MSIASM这一独特视角,分析了2000年-2005(2006)年中国(东西部)福建-甘肃的发展差异性及其内在缘由。
(1)在人类活动时间HA方面,2000-2005年间,福建HAH仅增加了2.5%,小于THA增幅(3.7%),更小于HAPW的增速(12.2%)。表明了7年来福建社会经济系统增加的人类活动时间主要投入于经济活动之中,这是由其人口的年龄结构所致。同时这也是福建现阶段在劳动力资源上的相对优势,但将成为福建未来可持续性发展在人口方面的一个重大胁迫。
而甘肃的THA长了1.8%,HAPW却减了7.3%;HAH/THA从88.6%升至89.6%,接近发达国家的90%。意味着:(i)甘肃经济规模(就从业人员数量而言)没有扩大,就业人数不升反降;(ii)高比重的HAH/THA是广大农村劳动力没有充分就业所致(年工作时间仅为1,457hr/yr),而非社会进步的体现;(iii)对甘肃未来可持续性发展的胁迫(与福建不同)在于农村劳动力的充分就业,即扩大第2、3产业的雇佣规模(特别是发展劳动密集型产业),将农村劳动力转移出来。
福建SOHA逐年减小这种变化轨迹可能是福建社会发展的一个相对优势。而甘肃SOHAe和SOHAb几乎没有变化。但甘肃的SOHAe和SOHAb都比全国大许多,也比福建大,而就业人口比重(2005年)高达54%,也反映了第1产业就业人员没有充分就业。
(2)在体外能吞吐量ET方面,2000-2006年,福建TET增加了94%,达2,008PJ; ETPW增长了112%,而ETH仅增长45%;三者增幅都高于全国同期增幅。同时, ETPW/TET从74%增大到80%,而ETH/TET则从26%降到20%。表明在此期间,福建社会经济系统的资本化水平高于全国,发展程度也高于全国。同样,福建增加的体外能吞吐量也大多消费于经济活动,,而生活消费的能源增加不多,意味着物质生活标准提高不快(特别是广大的农村人口)。
同期,甘肃TET增幅为41%,增大到1,429PJ,ETPW增长了54%,ETH增幅14%,都远小于福建,也都比全国同期增幅小,特别是ETH的增幅。可见:(i)甘肃资本化水平提高不大(总的投入小);(ii)所增加的体外能吞吐量主要消费于经济活动,ETPW/TET从74%增至81%;(iii)ETH增幅很小,说明甘肃在家政部门的资本化水平没有什么提高,生活改善有限。甘肃社会经济系统发展与福建的最大差异表现在能源消费量,特别是ETPW、ETH及其增长率上,反映了两省在资本化水平上的极大差距。而在2000年两省的差距并不太明显。
甘肃能源消费量增幅明显小于福建,表明东部社会经济系统的快速发展,伴随着所消费的能源比重越来越大,而将使发展速度较慢的西部处于不利地位。
2000-2006年,福建能源强度EI的所有指标都低于全国平均水平,而甘肃能源强度指标(除了异常的EI3外)都比全国高出不少。一者说明甘肃的能源效率还相当落后,能源强度降低的空间和压力都比较大,二者也说明了甘肃增加值的创造更多地依靠能源消费。
(3)在体外能代谢率EMR方面,2000-2005年间,福建EMRSA上涨了87%,EMRPW增长了89%,EMRH也提高了41%。2005年,福建除了EMR2比全国水平低(增幅也小)外,其他指标均高于全国平均水平,反映出了福建社会经济系统发展水平高于全国平均水平这一现实。
甘肃最突出的是第2产业体外能代谢率EMR2的增幅最大(125%),高于福建EMR2的增幅(54%),也高于同期全国增幅(49%),代表着甘肃工业部门的资本化水平的极大提高,也就是甘肃在工业的投入(比重)极大。
2006年甘肃EMR2(239,570KJ/hr)比全国同年EMR2(128,467KJ/hr)高了近1倍,而且2000-2006年增幅达143%,远高于全国同期增幅(54%)。除了甘肃原来的基础(包括设备和技术)较差外,一者说明甘肃工业中高耗能产业比重较大,消费的能源多,能源强度大;二者说明甘肃工业的发展需要更多的资本投入(表现为能源投入),三者说明甘肃近几年来社会经济系统的发展主要依赖于工业的增长,而工业的增长又主要依靠资本(能源)的投入。从而影响了其他部门的投入和发展,特别是物质生活水平EMRH的提高。甘肃ERM2和EI2的高数值表明了甘肃工业面临的节能减排等环境压力也相对较高,除了能够促进技术水平和能源效率的提高外,也可能影响甘肃工业的发展。
(4)在生产率方面,2000-2005(2006)年,甘肃社会生产率和(各产业)劳动生产率的所有指标的增速(增幅)都大于福建,说明了7年来甘肃经济增长主要靠生产率的提高,特别是第2产业和第3产业生产率的提高。2005年生产率指标绝对数除了ELP3高于福建外,甘肃其他各指标都小于福建,尤其是ESP和ELP1的差距更大,这也是两省发展程度不同的一种表现形式。福建省ESP和ELP的所有指标都大于全国平均水平,与其高于全国平均水平的社会经济发展状况相吻合。
(5)福建和甘肃BEP与GDP/cap增长趋势(曲线)也都比较吻合,再次说明了BEP是衡量社会经济发展和物质生活标准改善的一个好指标。
作者认识到,需要将BEP指标与历史过程(原来的基础和发展历程)、产业结构、技术水平和资源禀赋等结合起来、综合考虑,才能更好地表征社会经济系统的发展状况,尤其是高耗能产业比重大、技术落后、经济欠发达地区更应该如此。
本论文的结构为:第一章总结了社会代谢的基本理论、发展历程与发展现状;第二章比较详细地介绍(根据中国具体情况修改后的)社会代谢多尺度综合评估MSIASM方法的基本原理、实际应用和发展状况;第三章应用MSIASM方法,分析了1990-2006年中国社会经济系统的体外能代谢以及与之相关的社会经济系统发展轨迹与可持续性问题;第四章根据体外能代谢的差异性,对比分析福建省与甘肃省的发展状况,从这一独特视角分析中国东西部发展差异性及其成因;文章以对全文的总结和对需要进一步研究的问题的讨论结尾。
Socioeconomic systems input raw materials (including materials and energy) from their natural environments and, through the processes that economists describe as production and consumption, convert them into manufactured products and services, and, finally, output them back to environments in the forms of wastes and emissions. The physical exchange processes (material and energy flows) between human societies and their environments, as well as the internal material and energy flows, is termed Societal Metabolism. The notion of societal metabolism has proved to be fruitful for conceptualizing the interrelations between societies and their natural environments and analysing sustainability.
Since 1990’s, the study of societal metabolism, especially societal material metabolism, i.e. material flow analysis (MFA), has surged and trended towards maturity. However, most current works on societal metabolism ignore energy flows, that is, energetic metabolism. The“energetic metabolism of societies”, or“society’s energetic metabolism”, or“enrgy flow analysis (EFA)”, mainly studied by Helmut Haberl and colleges, and the“multiple-scale integrated assessment of societal metabolism (MSIASM)”, studied by Mario Giampietro, Kozo Mayumi and colleges, are two main notions of societal energetic metabolism.
MSIASM, first proposed by Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi in 2000 and further studied by Giampietro in 2003, based on the congruence among resource“Human Activities”, resource“Exosomatic Energy Flows”, and“Added Value Flows”in the hierarchical socioeconomic systems, and using, in an integrated way, incommensurable variables referring to non-equivalent descriptive domains(coming from various scientific disciplines, e.g. biophysics, economics, sociology, anthropology, and energy science) and data gathered at distinct hierarchical levels, addresses the various relevant dimensions of societal development and sustainability.
First, this dissertation, using the approach of MSIASM modified based on China’s statistical tradition and biomass energy consumption, analyses China’s socieconomic system development trajectory, between 1990 and 2006, as well as the constraints on sustainability.
(1) In Human Activities, China’s HAH increases faster than HAPW, showing the results of China’s socioeconomic development. And, compared to the world, lower HAH, higher HAPW/THA ratio and the age structure of population show the comparative advantage in working forces at this moment for China, but may represent an Achilles’heel for sustainability.
(2) While EI decreases explicitly, TET in China grows steadily to 797×1015KJ(2.7×109tce)in 2006. But ETH increases much slower than ETPW. Among exosomatic energy metabolism rates, increase of EMRH is the least. As economy grows further, ETH will increase and result in a big increase of TET.
(3) China’s economic societal productivity and economic labour productivity increased obviously. But the increasing degree of ELP2 is quite small, implying that the industrial growth relies mainly upon the enlargement of employment.
(4) China’s empirical analysis showes that bioeconomic pressure (BEP) is a better indicator to represent socioeconomic development than GDP or GDP per capita. And the nearly linear relationship between BEP and GDP per capita verifies BEP is a good biophysical indicator to measure socioeconomic system development.
(5) Based on the ETH level and its share in TET, it is roughly estimated that, to reach the material living level of Spain in 1996 (EMRH≈3.0MJ/hr), the energy requirement of China in 2020 is about 4,600mtce (including 260mtce biomass energy consumption) . TET and its related CO2 emission will be a big constraint on China’s sustainable development.
Second, the dissertation, from the unique perspective of MSIASM, analyses the differenciation of socioeconomic development between Fujian in the eastern China and Gansu Province in the western China, from 2000 to 2005.
(1) The increase of HAPW was much higher than THA and HAH in Fujian, but Gansu’s HAPW reduced by 7.3%, implying the size of Gansu economy did not enlarge.
(2) TET in Fujian and Gansu increased to 2,008PJ and 1,429PJ, respectively. But the rate of TET increase in Gansu was much lower than Fujian, which was one of main reasons leading to the development diferenciation between Gansu and Fujian. And this trend may maintain, and even enhance, for a long time.
(3) The increase rates of ETH and EMRH were much slower than ETPW and EMRPW in both Fujian and Gansu, implying the material living standards improved limitedly, especially in Gansu.
(4) EMR2 and EI2 in Gansu economy were nuch higher than Fujian, implying industrial growth in Gansu required much capitalization than Fujian, which limited capitalization in other sectors, especially household sector.
The dissertation consists of four chapters. The 1st chapter introduces briefly the concepts, history, basic paradigm and“state of the art”of societal metabolism.
The 2nd chapter reviews the rationale, empirical researches and scientificity of Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism. The 3rd chapter, using the approach of MSIASM, analyses China’s socioeconomic development trajectory, from 1990 to 2006, and the constraints on its sustainability. The last Chapter, from the perspective of MSIASM, analyses the diferenciation of socioeconomic development between Fujian in the eastern China and Gansu in the western China, between 2000 and 2005.
然而,能量代谢研究却很少,(作者发现)目前仅有以奥地利哈珀尔(Helmut Haberl)为首的、与物料流分析对应的“能量流分析EFA”和以意大利吉阿姆皮埃特罗(Mario Giampietro)和日本真弓浩三(Kozo Mayumi)为首的“社会代谢多尺度综合评估MSIASM”。
社会代谢多尺度综合评估MSIASM并行地利用不同学科与社会经济系统的能量代谢过程及系统的经济、人口、社会和生态特征有关的各种经济参量和生物物理参量,根据“人类活动时间”资源、“体外能流”资源和“增加值流”三者在社会经济系统中的叠合关系,即用投入于整个社会经济系统及其各个组成部门的“人类活动时间”作为共同的参照基础(或者说,公分母),将社会经济系统及其各个部门消费的“体外能”和生产的“增加值”串联起来——社会经济系统x部门(要素)单位人类活动时间消费的体外能←→该部门(要素)单位人类活动时间生产的增加值,将这些参量结合起来,利用多个关系式,计算出社会经济系统的人类活动时间HA、流量份额HA(n-1)/THA(n)、体外能吞吐量ET、贮量份额ET(n-1)/TET(n)、能源强度EI、体外能代谢率EMR、社会生产率ESP、劳动生产率ELP、生物-经济压力BEP和体外能超循环强度SEH等参数或指标。进而根据这些参数或指标综合地分析评估社会经济系统的发展与可持续性。实践证明MSIASM是综合评估社会经济系统的发展与可持续性的一个好方法。
本文应用经作者视为修改的MSIASM方法,分析了1990年-2006年中国社会经济系统的发展轨迹,发现存在的可持续性胁迫。
(1)在人类活动时间HA方面,从1990年到2006年,HAH增幅大于HAPW的增幅,表明了17年来中国社会经济系统不断发展的结果:普及义务教育、高中和高校学生增多、平均寿命延长、退休人员比重增大、年工作时间缩短等。HA3比重稳步增长,反映服务业对中国的就业问题贡献最大。
由参与经济活动的人口比重、HAH份额和高于世界平均水平的HAPW/THA比值表现出来的现阶段的劳动力优势,是中国发展的相对优势。但它可能是未来中国社会可持续性发展的阿基里斯之踵(Ramos-Martín, et al., 2006)。因而中国人口年龄结构是中国社会经济系统可持续性发展在人口方面的一个胁迫。
人类活动时间的社会开支SOHAe和SOHAb虽有所增大,但与发达国家的SOHAb≈24比较,相差很大,说明现在中国从事生产活动的人数(特别是农业从业者)太多,劳动力转移(尤其是转向服务业)的压力还很大,成为中国社会经济系统可持续性发展在人口方面的又一个胁迫。
(2)在体外能吞吐量ET方面,1990-2006年,中国TET增加了118%,达79.696×1015KJ(2.723×109tce),ETPW增长了164%,而ETH仅增长22%。同时,ETPW/TET比值从68%增大到82%,而ETH/TET比值则从32%降到18%。表明在此期间,中国社会经济系统增加的体外能吞吐量大多消费于经济活动,这是经济发展初期的特征;而生活消费的能源增加不多,意味着物质生活标准提高不快(特别是广大的农村人口)。
在此期间,EI下降了54%,而能源吞吐总量TET却稳步上升,可见,中国社会经济系统对能源消费需求的持续快速增大及相联的CO2排放量是中国可持续性发展在能源方面的一个严重胁迫。
(3)在体外能代谢率EMR方面,1990-2006年间,中国EMRSA上涨了89%。在3个产业中,EMR1增幅最大(119%),表明了农业投入的增加和农业的发展,更重要的是反映了投入在第一产业的人类活动时间减少了;EMR3增幅最小(89%),除了说明投入在第3产业的劳动力增多之外,还说明第3产业的发展较慢(资本化水平偏低)。EMRH的增幅最小,表明:(i)用于生活的人类活动时间增加了,这主要反映在就业人员年工作时间的缩短;(ii)物质生活标准的提高,特别是广大农民的物质生活标准的提高不大。
EMRH将不断提高(如家用汽车保有量的不断增大),而将导致社会经济系统能源吞吐总量TET增大很多。这将是中国社会经济系统可持续性发展在能源方面的另一胁迫。所以,做社会经济系统能源分析时,一定要把家政部门的能源吞吐量ETH考虑在内。
(3)从2003-2006年这个时间段来分析,生产率ESP和ELP增幅的变化表明了:(i)社会经济系统总体进步加快;(ii)农业就业人员数量减少和增加值增加在同步进行之中,增加值总量与从业人员数量之间没有关联,说明了农业劳动力转移的可行性和必要性;(iii)第二产业ELP2增幅最小,生产效率提高不大,增加值的增加较多依赖于劳动力的增加。
中国付薪部门的体外能代谢率EMRPW与劳动生产率ELP的变化轨迹(除了1990和1995年外)相当吻合,说明了二者之间密切的相互关系,也印证了能源消费与经济发展之间的关系。
(5)在生物经济压力BEP方面,1990-2006年,中国BEP增长了130%,而同期的GDP和人均GDP分别增长了374%和312%,可见BEP更好地反映了社会物质生活标准实际的改善状况。而且BEP增大与GDP/cap增长之间存在近乎直线的关系,再次验证了BEP是一个衡量社会经济系统发展的好的生物物理指标。
(6)基于家政部门的体外能代谢率EMRH,简单估测:要达到1996年西班牙的物质生活标准(EMRH≈3.0MJ/hr),2020年中国的能源需求量约为4.6btce(含生物质能源约0.26btce)。此数值大于魏一鸣等人(2006)的预测值(2.888-3.880btce)。
本论文还从MSIASM这一独特视角,分析了2000年-2005(2006)年中国(东西部)福建-甘肃的发展差异性及其内在缘由。
(1)在人类活动时间HA方面,2000-2005年间,福建HAH仅增加了2.5%,小于THA增幅(3.7%),更小于HAPW的增速(12.2%)。表明了7年来福建社会经济系统增加的人类活动时间主要投入于经济活动之中,这是由其人口的年龄结构所致。同时这也是福建现阶段在劳动力资源上的相对优势,但将成为福建未来可持续性发展在人口方面的一个重大胁迫。
而甘肃的THA长了1.8%,HAPW却减了7.3%;HAH/THA从88.6%升至89.6%,接近发达国家的90%。意味着:(i)甘肃经济规模(就从业人员数量而言)没有扩大,就业人数不升反降;(ii)高比重的HAH/THA是广大农村劳动力没有充分就业所致(年工作时间仅为1,457hr/yr),而非社会进步的体现;(iii)对甘肃未来可持续性发展的胁迫(与福建不同)在于农村劳动力的充分就业,即扩大第2、3产业的雇佣规模(特别是发展劳动密集型产业),将农村劳动力转移出来。
福建SOHA逐年减小这种变化轨迹可能是福建社会发展的一个相对优势。而甘肃SOHAe和SOHAb几乎没有变化。但甘肃的SOHAe和SOHAb都比全国大许多,也比福建大,而就业人口比重(2005年)高达54%,也反映了第1产业就业人员没有充分就业。
(2)在体外能吞吐量ET方面,2000-2006年,福建TET增加了94%,达2,008PJ; ETPW增长了112%,而ETH仅增长45%;三者增幅都高于全国同期增幅。同时, ETPW/TET从74%增大到80%,而ETH/TET则从26%降到20%。表明在此期间,福建社会经济系统的资本化水平高于全国,发展程度也高于全国。同样,福建增加的体外能吞吐量也大多消费于经济活动,,而生活消费的能源增加不多,意味着物质生活标准提高不快(特别是广大的农村人口)。
同期,甘肃TET增幅为41%,增大到1,429PJ,ETPW增长了54%,ETH增幅14%,都远小于福建,也都比全国同期增幅小,特别是ETH的增幅。可见:(i)甘肃资本化水平提高不大(总的投入小);(ii)所增加的体外能吞吐量主要消费于经济活动,ETPW/TET从74%增至81%;(iii)ETH增幅很小,说明甘肃在家政部门的资本化水平没有什么提高,生活改善有限。甘肃社会经济系统发展与福建的最大差异表现在能源消费量,特别是ETPW、ETH及其增长率上,反映了两省在资本化水平上的极大差距。而在2000年两省的差距并不太明显。
甘肃能源消费量增幅明显小于福建,表明东部社会经济系统的快速发展,伴随着所消费的能源比重越来越大,而将使发展速度较慢的西部处于不利地位。
2000-2006年,福建能源强度EI的所有指标都低于全国平均水平,而甘肃能源强度指标(除了异常的EI3外)都比全国高出不少。一者说明甘肃的能源效率还相当落后,能源强度降低的空间和压力都比较大,二者也说明了甘肃增加值的创造更多地依靠能源消费。
(3)在体外能代谢率EMR方面,2000-2005年间,福建EMRSA上涨了87%,EMRPW增长了89%,EMRH也提高了41%。2005年,福建除了EMR2比全国水平低(增幅也小)外,其他指标均高于全国平均水平,反映出了福建社会经济系统发展水平高于全国平均水平这一现实。
甘肃最突出的是第2产业体外能代谢率EMR2的增幅最大(125%),高于福建EMR2的增幅(54%),也高于同期全国增幅(49%),代表着甘肃工业部门的资本化水平的极大提高,也就是甘肃在工业的投入(比重)极大。
2006年甘肃EMR2(239,570KJ/hr)比全国同年EMR2(128,467KJ/hr)高了近1倍,而且2000-2006年增幅达143%,远高于全国同期增幅(54%)。除了甘肃原来的基础(包括设备和技术)较差外,一者说明甘肃工业中高耗能产业比重较大,消费的能源多,能源强度大;二者说明甘肃工业的发展需要更多的资本投入(表现为能源投入),三者说明甘肃近几年来社会经济系统的发展主要依赖于工业的增长,而工业的增长又主要依靠资本(能源)的投入。从而影响了其他部门的投入和发展,特别是物质生活水平EMRH的提高。甘肃ERM2和EI2的高数值表明了甘肃工业面临的节能减排等环境压力也相对较高,除了能够促进技术水平和能源效率的提高外,也可能影响甘肃工业的发展。
(4)在生产率方面,2000-2005(2006)年,甘肃社会生产率和(各产业)劳动生产率的所有指标的增速(增幅)都大于福建,说明了7年来甘肃经济增长主要靠生产率的提高,特别是第2产业和第3产业生产率的提高。2005年生产率指标绝对数除了ELP3高于福建外,甘肃其他各指标都小于福建,尤其是ESP和ELP1的差距更大,这也是两省发展程度不同的一种表现形式。福建省ESP和ELP的所有指标都大于全国平均水平,与其高于全国平均水平的社会经济发展状况相吻合。
(5)福建和甘肃BEP与GDP/cap增长趋势(曲线)也都比较吻合,再次说明了BEP是衡量社会经济发展和物质生活标准改善的一个好指标。
作者认识到,需要将BEP指标与历史过程(原来的基础和发展历程)、产业结构、技术水平和资源禀赋等结合起来、综合考虑,才能更好地表征社会经济系统的发展状况,尤其是高耗能产业比重大、技术落后、经济欠发达地区更应该如此。
本论文的结构为:第一章总结了社会代谢的基本理论、发展历程与发展现状;第二章比较详细地介绍(根据中国具体情况修改后的)社会代谢多尺度综合评估MSIASM方法的基本原理、实际应用和发展状况;第三章应用MSIASM方法,分析了1990-2006年中国社会经济系统的体外能代谢以及与之相关的社会经济系统发展轨迹与可持续性问题;第四章根据体外能代谢的差异性,对比分析福建省与甘肃省的发展状况,从这一独特视角分析中国东西部发展差异性及其成因;文章以对全文的总结和对需要进一步研究的问题的讨论结尾。
Socioeconomic systems input raw materials (including materials and energy) from their natural environments and, through the processes that economists describe as production and consumption, convert them into manufactured products and services, and, finally, output them back to environments in the forms of wastes and emissions. The physical exchange processes (material and energy flows) between human societies and their environments, as well as the internal material and energy flows, is termed Societal Metabolism. The notion of societal metabolism has proved to be fruitful for conceptualizing the interrelations between societies and their natural environments and analysing sustainability.
Since 1990’s, the study of societal metabolism, especially societal material metabolism, i.e. material flow analysis (MFA), has surged and trended towards maturity. However, most current works on societal metabolism ignore energy flows, that is, energetic metabolism. The“energetic metabolism of societies”, or“society’s energetic metabolism”, or“enrgy flow analysis (EFA)”, mainly studied by Helmut Haberl and colleges, and the“multiple-scale integrated assessment of societal metabolism (MSIASM)”, studied by Mario Giampietro, Kozo Mayumi and colleges, are two main notions of societal energetic metabolism.
MSIASM, first proposed by Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi in 2000 and further studied by Giampietro in 2003, based on the congruence among resource“Human Activities”, resource“Exosomatic Energy Flows”, and“Added Value Flows”in the hierarchical socioeconomic systems, and using, in an integrated way, incommensurable variables referring to non-equivalent descriptive domains(coming from various scientific disciplines, e.g. biophysics, economics, sociology, anthropology, and energy science) and data gathered at distinct hierarchical levels, addresses the various relevant dimensions of societal development and sustainability.
First, this dissertation, using the approach of MSIASM modified based on China’s statistical tradition and biomass energy consumption, analyses China’s socieconomic system development trajectory, between 1990 and 2006, as well as the constraints on sustainability.
(1) In Human Activities, China’s HAH increases faster than HAPW, showing the results of China’s socioeconomic development. And, compared to the world, lower HAH, higher HAPW/THA ratio and the age structure of population show the comparative advantage in working forces at this moment for China, but may represent an Achilles’heel for sustainability.
(2) While EI decreases explicitly, TET in China grows steadily to 797×1015KJ(2.7×109tce)in 2006. But ETH increases much slower than ETPW. Among exosomatic energy metabolism rates, increase of EMRH is the least. As economy grows further, ETH will increase and result in a big increase of TET.
(3) China’s economic societal productivity and economic labour productivity increased obviously. But the increasing degree of ELP2 is quite small, implying that the industrial growth relies mainly upon the enlargement of employment.
(4) China’s empirical analysis showes that bioeconomic pressure (BEP) is a better indicator to represent socioeconomic development than GDP or GDP per capita. And the nearly linear relationship between BEP and GDP per capita verifies BEP is a good biophysical indicator to measure socioeconomic system development.
(5) Based on the ETH level and its share in TET, it is roughly estimated that, to reach the material living level of Spain in 1996 (EMRH≈3.0MJ/hr), the energy requirement of China in 2020 is about 4,600mtce (including 260mtce biomass energy consumption) . TET and its related CO2 emission will be a big constraint on China’s sustainable development.
Second, the dissertation, from the unique perspective of MSIASM, analyses the differenciation of socioeconomic development between Fujian in the eastern China and Gansu Province in the western China, from 2000 to 2005.
(1) The increase of HAPW was much higher than THA and HAH in Fujian, but Gansu’s HAPW reduced by 7.3%, implying the size of Gansu economy did not enlarge.
(2) TET in Fujian and Gansu increased to 2,008PJ and 1,429PJ, respectively. But the rate of TET increase in Gansu was much lower than Fujian, which was one of main reasons leading to the development diferenciation between Gansu and Fujian. And this trend may maintain, and even enhance, for a long time.
(3) The increase rates of ETH and EMRH were much slower than ETPW and EMRPW in both Fujian and Gansu, implying the material living standards improved limitedly, especially in Gansu.
(4) EMR2 and EI2 in Gansu economy were nuch higher than Fujian, implying industrial growth in Gansu required much capitalization than Fujian, which limited capitalization in other sectors, especially household sector.
The dissertation consists of four chapters. The 1st chapter introduces briefly the concepts, history, basic paradigm and“state of the art”of societal metabolism.
The 2nd chapter reviews the rationale, empirical researches and scientificity of Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism. The 3rd chapter, using the approach of MSIASM, analyses China’s socioeconomic development trajectory, from 1990 to 2006, and the constraints on its sustainability. The last Chapter, from the perspective of MSIASM, analyses the diferenciation of socioeconomic development between Fujian in the eastern China and Gansu in the western China, between 2000 and 2005.
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