城市燃气管网的风险评价
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摘要
燃气作为一种优质、高效的能源,必将在二十一世纪的能源结构中占有举足轻重的地位,加快城市燃气发展成为我国经济发展的必然趋势。鉴于燃气本身有毒、易燃、易爆的特性,敷设于人口稠密城区地下的城市燃气输配管网一旦发生泄漏,将可能造成中毒、火灾和爆炸等恶性事故,导致严重的人员伤亡和经济损失。因此,对城市燃气管网系统进行风险评价,进而采取相应的预防、维护和管理措施,将目前管网系统的事后响应型管理方式向事前预防型转变是十分必要的,这样才能够达到提高城市燃气管网运行的安全可靠性,减少城市燃气管道的泄漏事故的目的。
本文首先介绍了国内外油气管道风险评价的研究现状,并分析了风险评价的相关基本理论,简要介绍了风险及风险评价的定义、各种风险评价方法的特点以及两种权重确定方法的特点和步骤。
本文通过对城市燃气管网特点的分析及各种定量风险评价方法适用性的比较,选择模糊综合评价法为城市燃气管网风险评价的主要方法。以长春的中压管网为例,通过对相关资料的整理分析,并参考相关文献资料,分别提出了中压-钢管、铸铁管和中压-PE管的风险评价指标体系,采用层次-专家咨询综合评价法确定了每项风险评价指标的权重,并确定了每项评价指标的具体评分细则,对长春市二道区的中压铸铁燃气管网进行了风险评价并提出相关建议。
本文通过分析城市燃气管网信息数据库建立的必要性及我国该项工作与国外的差距,得到必须尽快建立和完善管网风险评价信息数据库的结论,并利用动态网页技术初步构建了长春市燃气管网B/S结构的数据库信息系统。
本文通过对城市燃气管网风险管理的定义、必要性和特点的分析,阐述了将风险管理引入到城市燃气管网系统管理的理念,并提出了城市燃气管网风险管理的基本流程图,简要介绍了风险评价在风险管理中的作用以及燃气公司、政府部门、其它单位之间围绕风险评价开展的各项工作。
本文所采用的方法和得到的结论对城市燃气管网的风险评价、数据库的建立及风险管理具有一定的参考价值。
As a sort of energy of high quality and efficiency, it is certain that gas will play an important role in the energy structure of the 21th century, thus if our country would like to develop economy, we have no choice but to speed the construction of town gas networks. In consideration of gas is poisonous and flammable, if gas pipelines which buried under the city full of people ground leak, there would be some serious accidents such as poisoning, fire and blast. Then the incidents will cause casualties and property loss. As a result, risk assessment for town gas networks is necessary and in line with which we can take relevant prevention, maintenance and management measures to change the town gas networks maintenance plan from blind and maintenance into provisional and active service. What’s more, the leakage of gas pipelines will decrease and the reliability of town gas networks operation will increase.
At first, the research status of oil and gas pipelines risk assessment has been introduced, at home and abroad. Then, the relevance basic theories have been analysised, including the definitions of risk and risk assessment, the characteristics of various kinds of risk assessment methods, the traits and steps of two methods how to determine the weight of every index.
In this paper, the characteristics of city gas networks have been analysised and the applicability of quantitate risk assessment methods have been compared with each other. Then, the fuzzy-multiple method has been chosed as the main risk assessment method. Take Changchun for example, based on the relevant information of gas networks and literatures, the risk assessment models of steel, cast iron and PE pipelines have been put forward, the weight of every of risk assessment index has been determined using expert and gradation method and the standard for evaluation of each index has been confirmed. The risk of mid-press cast iron gas pipeline networks in Changchun Oudao has been assessed and some relevant suggestions have been put forwords.
Based on the analysis of the necessary that the data base about city gas networks should be built and the misdistance compared with abroad, the data base of Changchun gas networks which model is B/S has been built using dynamic pages technology.
The definition, necessary and characteristics of risk management have been analysis based on which risk management has been introduced into city gas networks daily maintainance and management and the simple flow chat of risk management has been put forward, in which suggestions aimed at the gas company, the government and other units, based on the results of town gas networks’risk assessment is thrown out in order to enhance the reliability of gas distribution networks.
The methods and the conclusions in this paper may make sense for the risk assessment, the building of data base and risk management of city gas networks.
本文首先介绍了国内外油气管道风险评价的研究现状,并分析了风险评价的相关基本理论,简要介绍了风险及风险评价的定义、各种风险评价方法的特点以及两种权重确定方法的特点和步骤。
本文通过对城市燃气管网特点的分析及各种定量风险评价方法适用性的比较,选择模糊综合评价法为城市燃气管网风险评价的主要方法。以长春的中压管网为例,通过对相关资料的整理分析,并参考相关文献资料,分别提出了中压-钢管、铸铁管和中压-PE管的风险评价指标体系,采用层次-专家咨询综合评价法确定了每项风险评价指标的权重,并确定了每项评价指标的具体评分细则,对长春市二道区的中压铸铁燃气管网进行了风险评价并提出相关建议。
本文通过分析城市燃气管网信息数据库建立的必要性及我国该项工作与国外的差距,得到必须尽快建立和完善管网风险评价信息数据库的结论,并利用动态网页技术初步构建了长春市燃气管网B/S结构的数据库信息系统。
本文通过对城市燃气管网风险管理的定义、必要性和特点的分析,阐述了将风险管理引入到城市燃气管网系统管理的理念,并提出了城市燃气管网风险管理的基本流程图,简要介绍了风险评价在风险管理中的作用以及燃气公司、政府部门、其它单位之间围绕风险评价开展的各项工作。
本文所采用的方法和得到的结论对城市燃气管网的风险评价、数据库的建立及风险管理具有一定的参考价值。
As a sort of energy of high quality and efficiency, it is certain that gas will play an important role in the energy structure of the 21th century, thus if our country would like to develop economy, we have no choice but to speed the construction of town gas networks. In consideration of gas is poisonous and flammable, if gas pipelines which buried under the city full of people ground leak, there would be some serious accidents such as poisoning, fire and blast. Then the incidents will cause casualties and property loss. As a result, risk assessment for town gas networks is necessary and in line with which we can take relevant prevention, maintenance and management measures to change the town gas networks maintenance plan from blind and maintenance into provisional and active service. What’s more, the leakage of gas pipelines will decrease and the reliability of town gas networks operation will increase.
At first, the research status of oil and gas pipelines risk assessment has been introduced, at home and abroad. Then, the relevance basic theories have been analysised, including the definitions of risk and risk assessment, the characteristics of various kinds of risk assessment methods, the traits and steps of two methods how to determine the weight of every index.
In this paper, the characteristics of city gas networks have been analysised and the applicability of quantitate risk assessment methods have been compared with each other. Then, the fuzzy-multiple method has been chosed as the main risk assessment method. Take Changchun for example, based on the relevant information of gas networks and literatures, the risk assessment models of steel, cast iron and PE pipelines have been put forward, the weight of every of risk assessment index has been determined using expert and gradation method and the standard for evaluation of each index has been confirmed. The risk of mid-press cast iron gas pipeline networks in Changchun Oudao has been assessed and some relevant suggestions have been put forwords.
Based on the analysis of the necessary that the data base about city gas networks should be built and the misdistance compared with abroad, the data base of Changchun gas networks which model is B/S has been built using dynamic pages technology.
The definition, necessary and characteristics of risk management have been analysis based on which risk management has been introduced into city gas networks daily maintainance and management and the simple flow chat of risk management has been put forward, in which suggestions aimed at the gas company, the government and other units, based on the results of town gas networks’risk assessment is thrown out in order to enhance the reliability of gas distribution networks.
The methods and the conclusions in this paper may make sense for the risk assessment, the building of data base and risk management of city gas networks.
引文
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[31]尤秋菊,朱伟,白永强等.北京市燃气管网危险因素的事故树分析[J].油气储运,2009,9(28):27-30.
[32]孙新利,陆长捷.工程可靠性教程[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:125-129.
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[38]彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊(Fuzzy)数学及其应用[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2007:178-182.
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[2] Liu T, Zhong M, Xing J. Industrial Accident: Challenges for China’s Economic and Social Development[J]. Safety Science, 2005(53):503-522.
[3] Yu J. The Study and Application of Safety Assessment System for Town Gas Networks[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[4]刘艳华,姚安林,于培林,蔡良君.完整性管理在城市燃气管网上的应用[J].管道技术与设备,2009(4):10-12,28.
[5]董绍华,杨祖佩.全球油气管道完整性技术与管理的最新进展-中国管道完整性管理的发展对策[J].油气储运,2007,26(2):51-57
[6] ASME B31.8S-2001, Supplement to B31.8 on Management System of Gas Pipeline[S]
[7] Muhlbauer W K. Pipeline Risk Management Manual [M].New York: Gulf Publishing Company, 1992
[8] Muhlbauer W K(著),杨嘉瑜,张德彦,李钦华,等(译).管道风险管理手册(第二版)[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2005
[9] Muhlbauer W K Pipeline Risk Management Manual (3rded) [M]. New York: Gulf Publishing Company,2004
[10]姚安林,刘艳华,李又绿等.国内外油气管道完整性管理技术比对研究[J].石油工业技术监督,2008(3):5-12.
[11] Anderson J, Brito, Almeida A T, et al. A Multicriteria Model for Risk Sorting of Natural Gas Pipelines Based on ELECTRE TRI Integrating Utility Theory[J]. Science, 200(2010):812-821
[12] Ainouche A. Future Integrity Management Strategy of a Gas Pipeline Using Bayesian Risk Analysis [C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006
[13]陈国华.风险工程学[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007.
[14] Alghalandis S M, Alamdari G N. Welding Defect Pattern Recognition in Radiographic Images of Gas Pipelines Using Adaptive Feature Extraction Method and Neural Network Classifier[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[15] Gerli. Operation & Maintenance: An Integrated Approach to Enhance Safety andReliability of Distribution Networks[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[16] Hardy M. Qualification of Small Trenches Filled up with Self-compacting for the Installation of Gas Distribution Pipelines[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[17] Thomas R. Risk-prioritised Distribution Asset Maintenance[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[18] Minagata H. Prioritization of Repair/Replacement of Aged Gray Cast Iron Pipelines Based on Risk Assessment[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006
[19] Emous A C, Harmsen D M. Reducing Digging Incidents Using Risk Management[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[20]潘家华.油气管道的风险评价[J].油气储运,1995,14(4):1-7.
[21]赵忠刚,姚安林,赵学芬. GIS技术在油气管道安全管理中的应用[J].管道技术与设备,2006(1):15-18.
[22]高文学,李建勋,王启等.故障树分析法在城市燃气管道安全评价的应用[J].煤气与热力,2009,29(12):B29-B35.
[23]李水平.西气东输管道沿线环境地质灾害风险性评价研究(硕士学位论文)[D].成都:西南交通大学,2008
[24]蔡良君,孙克春,姚安林.基于模糊层次分析法的输气管道风险因素权重分析[J].广州化工,2009,37(8):12-14.
[25]李又绿,姚安林,赵师平等.爆炸载荷对埋地输气管道的动力响应和极限载荷分析[J].焊管,2009,32(11):63-69.
[26]张扬.模糊综合评价技术在城市天然气管网运行风险评价中的应用(硕士学位论文)[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2006
[27]张琳.城市燃气管网安全管理体系研究(硕士学位沦文)[D].上海:同济大学,2006.
[28]黄小美,彭世尼,杨俊杰,王书淼.国内典型城市燃气管道失效调查与分析[J].煤气与热力,2010(9):A26-A29.
[29]于京春,解东来,,马冬莲等.城镇燃气管网风险评估研究进展及建议[J].煤气与热力,2007,27(12):38-42.
[30]何淑静,周伟国,严铭卿.上海城市燃气管网失效模糊故障树分析法[J].同济大学学报,2005,4(33):507-511.
[31]尤秋菊,朱伟,白永强等.北京市燃气管网危险因素的事故树分析[J].油气储运,2009,9(28):27-30.
[32]孙新利,陆长捷.工程可靠性教程[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:125-129.
[33]戴树和.工程风险分析技术[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2006:96-99.
[34]邓琼.安全系统工程[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2009:133-134.
[35] Klan, Faisal L, Husain, et al. Risk Assessment and Safety Evaluation Using Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis[J]. Human & Ecological Risk Assessment, 2001,7(7):1909-1927.
[36] Stevenson P. Risk Based Leakage Survey[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
[37]景国勋,施式亮.系统安全评价与预测[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2009:232-240.
[38]彭祖赠,孙韫玉.模糊(Fuzzy)数学及其应用[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2007:178-182.
[39]刘铁民,张兴凯,刘功智.安全评价方法应用指南[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005:458-472. [ 40 ]Wolters M. Requirements of Future Gas Distribution Networks[C/CD]. International Gas Union 23rd World Gas Conference, Amsterdam 2006.
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