基于系统动力学的赣州市中心城区住宅市场发展研究
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摘要
赣州市中心城区自1998年住房体制改革以来,住宅市场持续繁荣,平均房价由500元每平米上升到3000多元每平米。快速上升的房价不仅带来了房地产业的快速成长,同时高额的居住成本也导致了许多中低收入人群难以置业。引起房价快速增长的重要原因是土地供应的不足和住宅供给结构的不均衡。因此,尽管受宏观调控的影响,房价趋于稳定,但是保持土地合理投放规模和均衡住宅供给结构,仍然是保持房地产业持续健康发展的源头。笔者主要从影响住宅市场的因素分析入手,运用系统动力学理论对赣州中心城区住宅市场进行了仿真研究,为合理宏观调控政策提供依据。
本文首先以住宅市场理论和系统动力学理论为基础,在对影响住宅市场的因素分析的基础上建立系统动力学模型。并对模型进行了多次的拟和模拟,调整模型,并模拟出了2004年至2015年的住宅市场相关数据。
其次,在预测结果的基础上,对模型中涉及的土地、金融等政策参数进行仿真政策实验,测试了上述政策对住宅市场的影响趋势。
最后,在分析了仿真结果的基础上,结合目前住宅市场的现状,本文给出了相应的建议。
Since the housing system reformed in 1998, the real estate is continuously prosperous.The average housing price has risen from 500 to more than 3000 Yuan per square meter. The rapidly rising housing price not only made the real estate developing quickly, but also made the common people can't afford it.Two of the reasons that induced the housing price rapidly rising is the non-saturated residential land supply and non-balance supply structure . Although the macro-regulation has made the housing price become more stable, keeping the residential land supply rationally and Balance the supply structure is still the fountain of making the real estate development sustainable.After investigating the factors that influence the housing market, the paper simulates the housing market on residential land in Ganzhou which is based on system dynamics.The results of the simulation will provide a good suggestion that make the residential land supply rationally and balance the supply structure.
Firstly, basing on the housing market theories and system dynamic theories, the paper explores the main factors affecting the housing market, then it establishes an emulation forecast model with system dynamics theory.The paper estimates the housing markets main data of urban area of Ganzhou city in 2004 to 2015.
Secondly, basing on the forecasting results, the paper adjust the land, finance data and found the influence of these facts.
In the end, the author explains some comments on the policy basing on the circumstances of real estate and the terms of results in emulation.
本文首先以住宅市场理论和系统动力学理论为基础,在对影响住宅市场的因素分析的基础上建立系统动力学模型。并对模型进行了多次的拟和模拟,调整模型,并模拟出了2004年至2015年的住宅市场相关数据。
其次,在预测结果的基础上,对模型中涉及的土地、金融等政策参数进行仿真政策实验,测试了上述政策对住宅市场的影响趋势。
最后,在分析了仿真结果的基础上,结合目前住宅市场的现状,本文给出了相应的建议。
Since the housing system reformed in 1998, the real estate is continuously prosperous.The average housing price has risen from 500 to more than 3000 Yuan per square meter. The rapidly rising housing price not only made the real estate developing quickly, but also made the common people can't afford it.Two of the reasons that induced the housing price rapidly rising is the non-saturated residential land supply and non-balance supply structure . Although the macro-regulation has made the housing price become more stable, keeping the residential land supply rationally and Balance the supply structure is still the fountain of making the real estate development sustainable.After investigating the factors that influence the housing market, the paper simulates the housing market on residential land in Ganzhou which is based on system dynamics.The results of the simulation will provide a good suggestion that make the residential land supply rationally and balance the supply structure.
Firstly, basing on the housing market theories and system dynamic theories, the paper explores the main factors affecting the housing market, then it establishes an emulation forecast model with system dynamics theory.The paper estimates the housing markets main data of urban area of Ganzhou city in 2004 to 2015.
Secondly, basing on the forecasting results, the paper adjust the land, finance data and found the influence of these facts.
In the end, the author explains some comments on the policy basing on the circumstances of real estate and the terms of results in emulation.
引文
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[2]钱叶舒.我国住宅房地产价格决定及宏观政策研究:[硕士学位论文].合肥:合肥工业大学,2006
[3]赣州市规划委员会.赣州市近期建设规划(2005-2010).赣州:赣州市政府网,2005
[4]赣州市统计局.赣州统计年鉴-2006.赣州:赣州市统计局,2006
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[7]赣州市房产局.赣州市房地产管理局关于市中心城区老城区贫困居民居住情况汇报.赣州房地产,2007,第3期:17～21
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[9]尹军主编.房地产市场营销.北京:化学工业出版社,2005.3～7
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[12]徐科峰.房地产业概论.北京:经济日报出版社,1996.8～12
[13]王申申主编.经济适用房项目管理指导手册.合肥:安徽文化音像出版社,2004.2～5
[14]莫连光,郭慧芳.关于我国廉租房建设的思考.改革与战略,2006,第8期:23～27
[15]李小宁.限价房的市场功能.城乡建设,2007,第9期:11～13
[16]H.W.Singer.Income and Rent:A Study of Family Expenditure[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1937,4(2):145—154
[17]张永仲.近现代西方住宅的演进和启示.南方建筑,2002,第4期:26～29
[18]William B.Brueggeman.Federal Housing Policies:Subsidized Housing,Filtration and Objectives:A Reply[J].LandEconomics,1974,(3):317—320.
[19]王秋石.国外住宅政策及其对我国住宅发展的启示.北京:中国经济学教育科研网,2002
[20]张诏云.中国市场·学术论丛,2007,第8期:60～64
[21]王其藩主编.系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1994.2～5
[22]陈明忠.水资源承载能力评价理论与方法研究:[博士学位论文].合肥:河海大学,2005
[23]王其藩主编.高级系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1995.3～5
[24]胡玉奎主编.系统动力学.杭州:浙江人民出版社,1988.12～13
[25]J.W.Forrester主编.工业动力学.北京:科学出版社,1985.16～19
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[27]桂寿平,朱强,吕英俊.基于系统动力学模型的库存控制机理研究.物流技术,2003,第6期: 18～23
[28]贾仁安,丁荣华主编.系统动力学-反馈动态性复杂分析.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.103～110
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[30]苏懋康主编.系统动力学原理及应用.上海:上海交通大学出版社,1988.56～57
[31]王伟主编.经营性土地使用权出让.北京:中国方正出版社,2004.14～15
[32]江西鼎信房地产评估咨询公司.2005年赣州土地出让情况.赣州:鼎信房地产,2006
[33]赣州招投标中心.2006年赣州土地出让情况.赣州:赣州招投标网,2007
[34]哈继铭.人口结构直接影响房价.北京:北京商报,2007
[35]国家统计局.2005年全国1%人口抽样调查样本数据.北京:国家统计局,2006
[36]彭丽芳.浅议中国城市发展面临的挑战及对策.广西师范学院学报(自然科学版),2003,第Z1期:23～26
[37]雷雨.北京住宅产业发展研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学,2004
[38]郑捷.浅析我国房地产价格的影响因素.山西建筑,2007,第23期:16～18
[39]赣州市造价站.2005年赣州市造价站公布的典型工程中标价.赣州:赣州市造价站,2006
[40]刘福垣.住宅按功能分类区别对待——进一步完善住宅供应体制的建议.住宅产业,2007,第10期:64～65
[41]朱华,阎春宁,陈慧艺.上海市住宅需求预测.集团经济研究,2007,第11期:215～217
[42]赣南日报社.2006年赣州市中心城区10000户居民住房状况调查报告.赣州,赣南日报社,2006
[43]郭磊,王锋,刘长滨.深圳市房地产预警体系研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2003,第7期:23～26
[44]周刚华主编.城市土地价格微观影响因素研究.北京:经济科学出版社,2005.62～65
[45]田海燕,我国城市居民人均可支配收入的聚类分析.商业时代.2006.第8期:16～19
[46]赣州房产局.2005年住宅准售、备案数据.赣州:赣州房产局,2006
[47]张春.试论房地产市场失败的边界界定.管理世界2005,第3期:33～35
[48]马思新,李昂.房地基于Hedonic模型的北京住宅价格影响因素分析.土木工程学报.2003.第9期:25～28
[49]沙磊,韩丽川.BP神经网络在上海住宅市场需求预测中的应用.数学的实践与认识.2003.第11期:40～44
[50]J.A.Joines,et.SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: RESEARCHRE VIEW.UK: Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conferenee,342-351
[51]R.G.Ingalls,M.D.Rossetti,eds.ANAYSYS OF SUPPLY CHAINS USING SYSTEMDYNAMICS, NEURAL NETS, AND EIGENVALUES.Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conferenee,1136-1139
[52]John Sterman.Business Dynamics:Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World.Irwin/McGraw Hill,2000.
[53]Jay W. Forrester.The Beginning of System Dynamics.Banquet Talk at the international meeting of the System Dynamics Society Stuttgart,Germany.July 13,l989
[54] Alan Fowler.Systems modelling,simulation,and the dynamics of strategy.Journal of Business Research 56 (2003).135-144
[55]William,A.Byrd.Chinese Industrial Firms under Reform[M].London:Oxford University Press,1992:
[56]Alan E.Gelfand,Mark D.Ecker,John R.Knight,C.F.Sirmasns.The dynamics of location in home price[J].Journal of real Estate Finance and Economics,2004,29(2):149-166
[57]Case and J.M.Quigley.The dynamics of real Estate prices[J].The review of Economics and statics, 1991,73(3):50-58
[58]H.W.Singer.Income and Rent:A Study of Family Expenditure[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1937,4(2):145—154
[59]Haughton F.And Hunter C.Sustainable Cities〔M〕,London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers, 1992,1-72
[60]John Baffoe-Bonnie,The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1998,17(2): 179-197
[2]钱叶舒.我国住宅房地产价格决定及宏观政策研究:[硕士学位论文].合肥:合肥工业大学,2006
[3]赣州市规划委员会.赣州市近期建设规划(2005-2010).赣州:赣州市政府网,2005
[4]赣州市统计局.赣州统计年鉴-2006.赣州:赣州市统计局,2006
[5]曾省晖,廖振宙,王淑云.对赣州市房地产价格走势影响因素的实证分析.金融参考,2005,第12期:35～39
[6]陈一新,文武.对赣州市廉租房建设现状与问题的思考.南昌:江西统计信息网,2007
[7]赣州市房产局.赣州市房地产管理局关于市中心城区老城区贫困居民居住情况汇报.赣州房地产,2007,第3期:17～21
[8]蔡育天主编.房地产市场.上海:同济大学出版社,1998.1～5
[9]尹军主编.房地产市场营销.北京:化学工业出版社,2005.3～7
[10]曹莹梅.北京市房地产业投资环境研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:北京化工大学,2003
[11]孟晓芬主编.房地产交易与投资.北京:中国大地出版社,1993.16～19
[12]徐科峰.房地产业概论.北京:经济日报出版社,1996.8～12
[13]王申申主编.经济适用房项目管理指导手册.合肥:安徽文化音像出版社,2004.2～5
[14]莫连光,郭慧芳.关于我国廉租房建设的思考.改革与战略,2006,第8期:23～27
[15]李小宁.限价房的市场功能.城乡建设,2007,第9期:11～13
[16]H.W.Singer.Income and Rent:A Study of Family Expenditure[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1937,4(2):145—154
[17]张永仲.近现代西方住宅的演进和启示.南方建筑,2002,第4期:26～29
[18]William B.Brueggeman.Federal Housing Policies:Subsidized Housing,Filtration and Objectives:A Reply[J].LandEconomics,1974,(3):317—320.
[19]王秋石.国外住宅政策及其对我国住宅发展的启示.北京:中国经济学教育科研网,2002
[20]张诏云.中国市场·学术论丛,2007,第8期:60～64
[21]王其藩主编.系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1994.2～5
[22]陈明忠.水资源承载能力评价理论与方法研究:[博士学位论文].合肥:河海大学,2005
[23]王其藩主编.高级系统动力学.北京:清华大学出版社,1995.3～5
[24]胡玉奎主编.系统动力学.杭州:浙江人民出版社,1988.12～13
[25]J.W.Forrester主编.工业动力学.北京:科学出版社,1985.16～19
[26]黄本笑,范如国主编.管理科学理论与方法.武汉:武汉大学出版社,2006.43～46
[27]桂寿平,朱强,吕英俊.基于系统动力学模型的库存控制机理研究.物流技术,2003,第6期: 18～23
[28]贾仁安,丁荣华主编.系统动力学-反馈动态性复杂分析.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.103～110
[29]Vensim user guide.Ventana Systems,Inc.2003.7～11
[30]苏懋康主编.系统动力学原理及应用.上海:上海交通大学出版社,1988.56～57
[31]王伟主编.经营性土地使用权出让.北京:中国方正出版社,2004.14～15
[32]江西鼎信房地产评估咨询公司.2005年赣州土地出让情况.赣州:鼎信房地产,2006
[33]赣州招投标中心.2006年赣州土地出让情况.赣州:赣州招投标网,2007
[34]哈继铭.人口结构直接影响房价.北京:北京商报,2007
[35]国家统计局.2005年全国1%人口抽样调查样本数据.北京:国家统计局,2006
[36]彭丽芳.浅议中国城市发展面临的挑战及对策.广西师范学院学报(自然科学版),2003,第Z1期:23～26
[37]雷雨.北京住宅产业发展研究:[硕士学位论文].北京:清华大学,2004
[38]郑捷.浅析我国房地产价格的影响因素.山西建筑,2007,第23期:16～18
[39]赣州市造价站.2005年赣州市造价站公布的典型工程中标价.赣州:赣州市造价站,2006
[40]刘福垣.住宅按功能分类区别对待——进一步完善住宅供应体制的建议.住宅产业,2007,第10期:64～65
[41]朱华,阎春宁,陈慧艺.上海市住宅需求预测.集团经济研究,2007,第11期:215～217
[42]赣南日报社.2006年赣州市中心城区10000户居民住房状况调查报告.赣州,赣南日报社,2006
[43]郭磊,王锋,刘长滨.深圳市房地产预警体系研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2003,第7期:23～26
[44]周刚华主编.城市土地价格微观影响因素研究.北京:经济科学出版社,2005.62～65
[45]田海燕,我国城市居民人均可支配收入的聚类分析.商业时代.2006.第8期:16～19
[46]赣州房产局.2005年住宅准售、备案数据.赣州:赣州房产局,2006
[47]张春.试论房地产市场失败的边界界定.管理世界2005,第3期:33～35
[48]马思新,李昂.房地基于Hedonic模型的北京住宅价格影响因素分析.土木工程学报.2003.第9期:25～28
[49]沙磊,韩丽川.BP神经网络在上海住宅市场需求预测中的应用.数学的实践与认识.2003.第11期:40～44
[50]J.A.Joines,et.SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: RESEARCHRE VIEW.UK: Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conferenee,342-351
[51]R.G.Ingalls,M.D.Rossetti,eds.ANAYSYS OF SUPPLY CHAINS USING SYSTEMDYNAMICS, NEURAL NETS, AND EIGENVALUES.Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conferenee,1136-1139
[52]John Sterman.Business Dynamics:Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World.Irwin/McGraw Hill,2000.
[53]Jay W. Forrester.The Beginning of System Dynamics.Banquet Talk at the international meeting of the System Dynamics Society Stuttgart,Germany.July 13,l989
[54] Alan Fowler.Systems modelling,simulation,and the dynamics of strategy.Journal of Business Research 56 (2003).135-144
[55]William,A.Byrd.Chinese Industrial Firms under Reform[M].London:Oxford University Press,1992:
[56]Alan E.Gelfand,Mark D.Ecker,John R.Knight,C.F.Sirmasns.The dynamics of location in home price[J].Journal of real Estate Finance and Economics,2004,29(2):149-166
[57]Case and J.M.Quigley.The dynamics of real Estate prices[J].The review of Economics and statics, 1991,73(3):50-58
[58]H.W.Singer.Income and Rent:A Study of Family Expenditure[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1937,4(2):145—154
[59]Haughton F.And Hunter C.Sustainable Cities〔M〕,London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers, 1992,1-72
[60]John Baffoe-Bonnie,The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis[J].Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,1998,17(2): 179-197